Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are feeling great. Very happy to see you again for this breaking news video this Saturday, November 22, 2025, with a slightly green crypto market. Go figure, how did that happen? Well, it's because yesterday, Friday afternoon, we had a little rise that was pleasing for Bitcoin and altcoins. Of course, we are far from saying "That's it, we have a beautiful bull run, it's going to the moon." But it's nice to see that after touching rock bottom at around $80,000, we bounced back a bit towards $84,500 today. Let's hope that the $80,000 level holds.
Yesterday, the stock market closed in the green. We see that the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed almost at plus 1%. Why did cryptos and the stock market do a little bit of green? Because we had a little catalyst that was pleasing, it's John Williams, the president of the New York Fed, who said he saw a rate cut for December because, in short, he would agree, with a grain of salt, that they could make a short-term rate cut without directly impacting inflation. That's the idea. So that was the little positive news that made the stock market and cryptos go green yesterday afternoon.
Now, if we take a global overview, we see that Bitcoin has taken a big hit, unfortunately. Well, it's been going down for 4 weeks. Bam! Yesterday, a little rise as I told you about in the video on the VIP Telegram channel this morning. Well, it's not very pretty to see bullish channels forming. That's not very good. It unfortunately announces, if the structure remains a bullish channel, a descent. Well, none of this is pretty.
The dollar, on the other hand, is still strong. The US 10-year Treasury is also taking a big hit. I think that must be quite a blow to the Treasury. Well, well, because if we were really sure of having rate cuts, it shouldn't be falling this much. Well, we'll talk about it tonight in the news video. We talked about it in the analysis video. We see that for rate cuts, well, we've moved to a 71% probability of a rate cut for December 10th. December 10th is not very far away. So a rate cut, well, that would be a small positive catalyst, it would be pleasing. Especially since investors aren't really expecting it this time.
Now, you'll tell me, "But Fouffi, the rate cuts we've had in recent months, every time it's been red." Yes, it's been red because we expected it. It was almost mandatory, you see. Powell had said, "Yes, the rate cut, all that, all that, we need to support employment, all that." Well, so we expected it, so it was already priced in. After that, there's a little "sell the news" for December, really, it was yesterday that the probabilities went from the low thirties to seventy. So, if there isn't a big green, it won't be priced in beforehand, it could go green when it falls. That's the idea.
So, we will also follow next week. I will talk about it, of course, I'm giving you a quick overview like this. There will be interesting figures coming out. We will especially focus on the employment figures, the private employment figure which will be released on the 25th. There will also be the PPI, and we will see a bit how American factories are running. There will also be the overall public employment figures which will be released on the 26th.
So, it's the week, every week you have employment figures. Well, finally, figures, whether it's unemployment claims, whether it's jobless claims, things like that, we don't care. As long as it's employment data, it will be interesting. However, we won't have any inflation data yet. Well, so, is that too bad or not? On the one hand, we don't want to see inflation stagnating or rising, but we would like to see employment decreasing. What will increase the probabilities of having even more rate cuts? It's if employment collapses. The more employment collapses, the more the probabilities of rate cuts will rise because they have to cut rates to support businesses a bit, which will then create jobs. That's the idea, it's because all businesses have been squeezed for years with high rates that they have difficulty borrowing, they don't borrow, or they don't borrow much, and therefore they develop less. So they hire less, you see, they hire less. That's the idea. So, to really have bullish catalysts, which are rather rate cuts, it's for employment not to be good and for inflation not to rise much. That's kind of the idea. That's what we would expect, if you like.
Well, if we take a quick look at the heatmap. We see that well, there's still a not-so-nice little cluster to look for between $80,800 and $78,000. So, is Bitcoin preparing this bullish channel that I don't like too much, you see, to go and reach $78,000? It remains possible. There will be large buy orders waiting here at $77,500, the last ones at $75,000. If we break $74,000, it's good, we can start to layer up and fill up on layers, clearly.
Well, we can already layer up a bit here, but $74,000 is welcome for a bear market, clearly it won't be pretty. Well, let's hope we don't break it. We also note that we do have a good little cluster here to the north. We might have to look for it one day between $85,800 and $93,000 here, with large, not-so-nice sell orders waiting for Bitcoin at $92,000. So it will do a little good for morale to have a small green week because it's been falling for 4 weeks. We will do the long-term analysis tomorrow, Sunday, of course, because Sunday is always the close of the weekly candles, and it would be nice to have a small green week at some point. I don't know what you think.
Well, so the good news that came out yesterday is the only one. We take what we have. So people on crypto social media were rather happy. There you go, they say there's a little bullish catalyst because, well, you should know that Bitcoin touched $80,000. It was like, oh my god, $80,000. Well, it went back up to around $85,000 because, well, the probabilities of rate cuts have strongly increased, as when the president of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, said that the Fed could cut its rates in the short term without compromising its inflation target. I quote what he said.
Well, so the crypto market reacted with optimism because, well, when you have nothing, the least you can get, you take it, if you want. That's the idea. Well, so why are rate cuts positive factors for risk assets like stocks or cryptos? Because, well, it reduces the attractiveness of bonds and short-term deposits a bit, because yields decrease, so you're less inclined to go there, so you go for things that give slightly higher yields.
Well, we also have the crypto analysis from Jess and Cel who says, "I don't know why the situation continues to deteriorate. We are moving from a phase of monetary tightening to a phase of monetary easing. At some point, the crypto market should rally." Well, I quite agree with that. We are preparing for monetary injections here and there around the world, in different countries. At some point, it will have to show.
Well, the problem is the central bank's actions, they decide a lot of things too, you know. They have a lot of influence on the markets. ETFs have a lot of influence and they are selling. We've had billions of dollars in Bitcoin sales for several weeks now. Well, that's less good too. Some are saying it's just a little rebalancing, so to speak, rather than a flight of clients from Bitcoin ETFs. Well, that's what Bitfin analysts are telling us. They say there are profit-takings. There are also cuts in leveraged positions which mean that the market is essentially doing a little reinitialization, a little reset, a little cleanup, that's the idea.
Well, and so they tell us that this does not call into question the long-term movement towards institutionalization. The spot ETF channel remains intact, and capital outflows probably reflect a tactical rebalancing rather than a massive withdrawal. Well, I quite agree with that. In short, yes, okay, some are selling, but that doesn't mean that's it, Bitcoin is no longer wanted, it's become too useless and all that. Well, no, Bitcoin hasn't changed, the fundamentals haven't changed. Especially since you should know that the people who buy ETFs, the majority, for example, BlackRock clients, are people who have been exposed to stock markets for years. They are people with money, you're not with BlackRock because you're new, you have $100 left, you're going to buy Bitcoin, you're in this because you have quite a bit of money, you see.
Well, so they are people who are used to investing, they are not people who will sell at the slightest little red candle, even if of course some can do it. Well, but in short, it's rather short-term holders who bought Bitcoin directly who are selling, we know that. For example, here, compared to people who bought ETFs, we know they are at a loss because their average price is $90,000. We also know that when we hit the bottom at $74,000 in April 2025, it was when we went below their loss threshold, that's when they no longer wanted to buy because when you are in profit, when Bitcoin has gone above your average price, you don't really want to buy. But when it goes below, you want to buy more to lower your average price a bit. You see, that's what we saw in April.
And in short, we have Rick Sanchez, for example, the main analyst at Bloomberg, who tells us, it's not the Bitcoin ETF holders who are selling, it's rather those who directly hold the asset. And we have Glassnode and CryptoQuant, two extremely powerful on-chain analysis firms, well, they confirm this. When they say things, we listen to them, they are not jokers.
Well, Bitcoin has fallen sharply and quickly too. That's what's crazy. It's not just that Bitcoin is in the red at $80,000. It's how it got there. It got there in a really brutal way, all at once. 4 weeks, the blade, minus 36% in the teeth, wow. That's why I share a lot of indicators with you that I've shared in recent days on social media, whether it's Telegram, Discord, Twitter, you have the link in the description, which show that we are at levels of capitulation, fear, everything you want, that we haven't seen since the FTX collapse in 2022, because everything is happening blam, quickly and all at once, you see. It's not like I fall for a week or two, I breathe for a week or two, I fall again, you see, descending the stairs, this is a straight line, you see.
Well, and so we have Glassnode here which tells us, "The magnitude and speed of these losses reflect a significant elimination of marginal demand, so everything that is leveraged, goodbye. Recent buyers are withdrawing from the market during the pullback period." So recent buyers are short-term holders, those who bought Bitcoin less than 6 months ago. Well, because you should know that Bitcoin is down 36%, it happened quickly.
And so we also have CryptoQuant who tells us that a large part of the sales observed during the current Bitcoin crash is due to short-term holders. It's the short-term sellers who are also marking the lows on our side. In short, those who bought less than 6 months ago, they are the short-term holders, they call them that. They are the ones selling at a loss, at a loss, at a loss, you see, and it's when they have finished selling, when they have nothing left, that we get small bottoms. And here it's CryptoQuant who shared this with us, and I shared it with you yesterday too, okay, on social media.
And so he tells us, well, the level of capitulation of short-term holders, like, oh my god, there are so many selling at a loss because they are afraid. Well, these are levels we've seen, even lower levels, when we made the bottom in April 2025, when we made the bottom in August 2024, when we had 8 months of correction in 2024, and it's then, you see, it's not levels of a full bear market, it's that we haven't necessarily had a parabolic bull run to say that we are at parabolically low bear market levels, you see. And that's what some analysts affirm, like Samson Mow here, you see, who tells us, how can we talk about a bear market because the word bear market is on everyone's lips, when we haven't even had a real bull market.
Now, when I say bull market, I mean a parabolic market, because, well, the last bull runs we had, they started really like this, you see, they went up like a parabola. Here, I almost have a straight line. That is to say, we went up in steps, we pushed, we corrected for months, months, we push again, we correct for months, months, we push, we went up slowly, a little sluggishly, you see. We went up slowly, whereas usually bull runs are like this.
So that doesn't mean we can't have a bear market for a year. But in my opinion, since this is just my personal opinion, okay? It's that since we didn't have an explosion-style bull run, since altcoins didn't have a parabolic altcoin season, since Bitcoin didn't push parabolically, there's no reason to have a nuclear-style bear market at -70% like we had before. We can have drops, but here we are at -36%, it could go to -40%, -50%, you see. But I don't think it will go to -70%. That's the idea. Why? Because if you didn't have a huge rise, you don't have a huge drop. If you have a sluggish rise, you'll have a sluggish drop too. It's proportional. Here, the bear market is proportional to the bull run, and we have nuclear bear markets because there were also nuclear bull runs. Here, we didn't have a nuclear bull run, so there's no reason. We won't have a nuclear one. Well, after all, it's my personal opinion, everyone will have their own opinion. Okay.
Well, so Bitcoin, it's been in the red for 4 weeks now. Bam, it doesn't even let us breathe. We're like, oh my god, can I breathe please? Well, and we also have Mati Greenspan, CEO of Quantum, who says, "Lately, we've been breaking support levels with disconcerting ease, and no one seems to want to try and catch us." Well, he's right, it's been collapsing for 4 weeks now, and you get the impression there's no real buy-the-dip.
Although I categorically reject the idea that we are heading towards a multi-year bear market, in short, a nuclear bear market that will last one or two years, given the speed of the current collapse, pessimists could reach their objectives much sooner than expected. So he highlights something important, which is that, well, those who talk, the pessimists who talk about a bear market, well, we can't blame them. Given how quickly, rapidly, and strongly we have fallen, it's scary. Clearly, it's scary. But there's no problem with that.
Well, now I trust the structures. We'll see that tonight. Breaking $74,000 means starting a new corrective structure. And so you'll call it a bear market, whatever you want. It will just be a new corrective structure with a big A, a big B, a big C that will last for months and months and months. I think it was planned for at least 6 months, between 6 months and a year. Will we call it a bear market? Some will call it a bear market if we break $74,000. After that, it could just be a corrective structure that doesn't send Bitcoin to hell, that could send it between $50,000 and $60,000, not to $20,000. You see, that's the idea.
Well friends, for this quick update this morning. We will meet again this afternoon for the analysis, of course. I send you kisses. Courage friends, and see you later. Bye bye.