Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review with a rather bearish market, whether it's BTC, Ether, or altcoins. So, I'm going to make a rather complete video on this. We'll see if it's serious, or on the contrary, if we can position ourselves or not. So, there you go, we're going to do a pretty, pretty complete review. I'll start with BTC. We'll also talk a bit about psychology because it's very important to take a step back from yourself when you have these kinds of events. I've always been the first to tell you if you need to panic, it's better to panic as early as possible. I remember, I told you this on this weekly close, I told you if you need to panic, okay, it's always as early as possible because the people who panic the latest, whether it's at this level, at this level, at this level, they are the ones who set the bottoms, okay? You will never be profitable by panicking as late as possible. So if you have to panic at some point, it's as early as possible. This is a very important point to understand. Now, in this kind of context where the market is falling, already, I see a lot of a reflex that is quite normal because humans always seek to rationalize things, to always ask why it's falling, why it's falling. Except that knowing why it's falling, what you need to tell yourself is always secondary. Knowing why BTC has experienced such a violent dump is secondary. Okay? It brings you nothing to know the real trigger. It's not the most important thing. The most important thing is what are you going to do? Because whether you have the reason or not, the market has fallen. So, okay. So that won't change anything. Whatever the reason you have, the most important thing is what you do. What do you do? What do you intend to do? The "why" is always secondary. Now, there are no real reasons, and anyway, you can always look for reasons. What we can simply note is that in this area, supply was greater than demand. There were no buyers who maintained the price. We simply had a long squeeze here. We triggered the stop losses of all the longs that were positioned below this level. We have a market that plummeted. We didn't find any buyer support. Now that we have this kind of scenario, I will do the technical analysis part, of course, afterwards, but the most important point is to take a step back and ask yourself the questions. Okay, how did you react to this drop when you woke up in the morning, when you opened the screens, how did you feel? Okay, this will allow you to know if you currently have good exposure. Exposure, as I've often repeated, is the proportion of crypto you have compared to the cash you have on the other side. A person who has no cash is 100% in crypto. A person who has $20,000 in crypto or $20,000 in cash ready to be invested is 50/50. Okay? And this exposure, the more exposed you are, the more automatically when the market falls, it will impact you more. It's normal. Someone who is 100% in crypto, when the market falls, it's their entire wallet that drops. When we simply have a person who is 10% exposed, well, we automatically have someone who is much less affected by the drop. Ask yourself the questions, did you look at your wallets during the day three or four times? Okay, it's normal to look at it once, to check it once, okay, how it evolved. It's human, okay? Now, if you spent your day looking at your wallets three or four times, okay, you are too exposed, you are not comfortable with what happened today. Especially, it's nothing, honestly, it's something classic in crypto to have this kind of drop. Okay, there you go, it happens from time to time. A bit of volatility, it's completely normal. And I was the first to tell you. Beware of the volatility that will return following Powell's speech, following the drop in rates as well and the next ones coming at the end of the year. I expect volatility for the next two or three months. So, there you go, you have to be ready. Now, there you go. Did you open your wallets several times? Did you overtrade? Did you try to create a strategy like this today to try to make up for it? All these are questions you need to ask yourself. You need to generally take a step back and ask yourself how you behaved today. If you have classic behavior that respects your strategies, your plan, if you have respected what you established in recent days, recent weeks, okay, everything is fine. If, on the other hand, you tried to invent yourself a... someone who is 100% investor, has never traded in their life, today they started trading, well, that's not normal behavior. Okay? Someone who checked their wallet every 30 minutes, someone who opened their phone every 30 minutes today, that's also not normal. And that's something you need to evaluate and ask yourself why, why you did that. And often the question is simple, you are much too exposed. Okay? And it's very important to take a step back in these moments. That's why I don't start directly with technical analysis, because most YouTubers when you watch what they do, hop, bang, okay, it's falling. Okay, well, most of them will tell you "Yeah, no, but it's a false drop, it's going to go back up." No, here psychology is important. Okay? It's always introspection on oneself to know, okay, what went wrong and what can be done afterwards. Because this is something very important too, what I'm going to tell you. I'm often asked, yes Nico, what is the current solution? And in other words, how do I translate that? What's your miracle solution? Okay, there are never miracle solutions in trading. That means if you are currently in trouble, you are in trouble. It's a fact. We can reduce the damage, we can, okay. The best thing in general when you are not comfortable with a position is to close it. Loss, no loss, it doesn't matter, close it. However, what I propose to you each time is not to get you out of this solution, out of this problem with a miracle solution. It's simply to tell you, ask yourself the questions. What put you in this situation and what can you do? What concrete action can you implement so that next time you don't find yourself in this situation? Okay? It's like if tomorrow you get a flat tire on the road. Well, if you don't have a spare tire, there's no miracle solution. You can't invent anything. Okay, you're not going to push the car, no, it's not possible. However, instead of looking for a miracle solution, you can of course tinker. Well, you can call someone, okay, you can get out of it, but yourself, you won't have a spare road that will come out of nowhere. However, you can ask yourself the questions, okay, what did you potentially do wrong? Okay, what put you in this situation where you got a flat tire? Maybe nothing at all, it's possible of course, but maybe you did something wrong. In trading, it's the same. We don't look for a solution right now, we look for the future, okay? How can we not find ourselves in this situation? So that's on the psychological part, but it's very important because I know some people might not be well after this kind of liquidation, people who are in spot have taken a hit potentially. Well, feel free to join the Discord if you want to discuss this, no problem. Now, from a technical point of view, where are we? Already, we had mentioned that if the H4 tunnel didn't hold, it didn't hold at all, we clearly broke through it, we have no buying reaction, we had a high chance of returning to test this polarity zone, a very important level that long served as support, then resistance, and now serves as support again. We also have new weekly pivot points being created, but we are clearly below them. Okay? Uh $113,700, $115,850, and $117,312. In case of rebounds, these can be interesting levels to take shorts, to aim for trend continuation in this short-term bearish trend. Honestly, my opinion, if I give my opinion here on three timeframes, short-term, medium-term, and long-term. If I look at the long-term, we are still bullish. That's a fact. Okay? We are still in a dynamic here that is acting as support. But if we start to break away from this level on a weekly close, and even worse, if we go below $100,000, for me, that's a long-term trend reversal. Automatically, the medium-term trend will be bearish, the short-term as well, and potentially the end of the bull market. I'm not talking about a 4-year cycle bear market like we've known before with a big drop. Maybe it's to go back to, for example, $80,000, consolidate here for 2-3 months, and then resume. But in any case, we will have a big pause in this bullish trend. That's how I see it. I would reduce my exposure if we go below this level and below this level. That's for the long-term. Medium-term, for my part, if we start to go below this level, to re-enter this level, go below this impulsive candle here below $110,000 and have acceptance below it. Again, we won't have broken the long-term trend which is here and here, but I would question it, it's not something I want to see. Now, we've made a magnificent inverted head and shoulders. We've re-entered this level which is a very important level. Okay? I don't want to, I don't want us to lose it again. When I say I don't want to, I have no impact on it, of course, but it's to make you understand that if we lose this level, yes, it wouldn't be, it wouldn't be great. Now, we are in a pullback. Technically, a support level has a better chance of fulfilling its role, meaning acting as support. Especially since we are really on a violent pullback, we are on a big level anyway. For me, it has a better chance of holding. So technically, we are in a zone where it's interesting to take longs, to position ourselves as buyers, of course. Ideally, I would like to see a slightly more significant buying reaction on the 1-hour, 4-hour here. But yes, it's a fact. We are in a good location zone to look for longs with a potential return to test $114,500 to $115,000. So, clearly from a technical point of view, there's not much to say about BTC. Already, these are points we had discussed recently. Yesterday, okay, we had reviewed, I told you either I'm watching a long at $114,000 towards the H4 tunnel, or I'm watching a long if we go back to test this level. For now, there's a lack of buying reaction for me to position myself. The zone is very good, of course, but I prefer to wait for a small buying reaction rather than rushing too quickly. When I talk about long here, I'm talking about whether it's spot or futures, but these are generally medium-term positions. When I talk about reducing my exposure, I'm mainly talking about long-term. Now, it happens that I have long-term positions that end up being short-term positions. Can we say it's a long-term position? If I positioned myself here on BTC in April, okay? and I close my position if we start to lose this level. In the end, it's a position I would have held for about, let's say, 6 months, because that's called long-term. Well, after that, it's up to each person. And sometimes, I can position myself for the long-term, but I have an invalidation that comes a month later, so I get out. I won't say to myself, "Ah, well, no, since it was for the long-term, but I had my invalidation too quickly, I must keep my position." No. Okay. However, sometimes, I have positions that I keep for a very long time, of course. When I entered here on BTC at the time of this bullish impulse and throughout this zone, here on this support level where I worked hard on BTC, at my invalidation, if we started to lose this level again, potentially I would exit, we didn't do it. So automatically my position, I kept it for a long, a long time. Well, sometimes, on the other hand, it doesn't go as planned, we re-enter and you have to, you have to get out. So, there you go, I'm not going to be like many people who, as I said on the internet, reassure you by saying no, BTC is fine, it's a trap, it's going to $150,000. These people know nothing. Okay, I'm telling you, they know nothing. It's a lottery, they always bet on two outcomes. If it works out, they'll tell you they're the best. If it doesn't work out, they'll say, "Yes, but it's because of the market makers, the whales, etc., etc." It's classic. The market is manipulated. Except that it's strange, the market is manipulated only when it falls, when it rises, when it goes up, the market is never manipulated. Here, we assume 100% of the responsibilities. There is no "I told you so." When I'm right, it's thanks to me. When I'm wrong, it's my fault, and that's the best way to improve. And I advise you to have this mentality. You progress much faster in the market. Uh, well. In any case, on BTC, I've said everything I wanted to say. Regarding Ether, Ether is correcting much more. Well, we see it here on the perpetual contract. We've tested this low here on spot. I don't think we did it. Yes, we did. We did it too. So, a big liquidity grab is underway on Ether. Already on Ether, I didn't like it. I didn't like it. After all, we are at a high extreme, so it doesn't surprise me to have this kind of reaction, but I didn't like having this liquidity hunt here. We are potentially here on an M top. With the weekly close arriving in 6 days, we'll have time to talk about it again, but we could be on a reversal pattern. And if we start to lose the H4 tunnel, which has been acting as support for a while. I'm also watching this whole zone to potentially look for a long, but we're more in a long squeeze here than an absorption. Okay, we see it clearly. So, yes, we have a low wick at this level, but we have a 3-minute tunnel here that acts as resistance. This is the classic setup, frankly, I'm giving it to you. When you have a sharp, strong drop like here, often the first pullback in the blue tunnel here very often acts as resistance. This is quite classic for those who scalp intraday. We see it here on Ether, if I show you on BTC, it wouldn't surprise me. We were a bit, we were a bit higher. I didn't trade today with the... I didn't specifically have a setup and I wasn't 100% in front of the screens. But well, often when there's a sharp drop, we go back to test the 3-minute tunnel and we reject. So, I'm going back because I'm not going to do short-term today. We're mainly going to do medium-term, medium-long term. Yes. On Ether, I was mainly watching for a reaction at this level. We didn't have a specific reaction this morning. Uh, we broke through, we have a low wick, but I didn't like it much. We have... No, in the end, we didn't take the liquidity here, I thought, but no, we didn't make a new low at this level. It's on the perpetual contract that we made a new low. Often on perpetual contracts, we go much lower. Why? Because well, long squeezes and short squeezes are much more significant on perpetual contracts given the leverage and even markets with generally a lot of people who FOMO much more than on spot contracts. So we often have wicks that are much, much more significant. We even see this high wick at this level. Well, technically on Ether, if I have to really take a step back and be as honest as possible, okay, we are still in a long-term bullish trend. That's a fact. I told you on Ether, I would worry, okay, long-term, if we go back below this level. I have no reason to go back below this level on Ether. That's why, well, when I say there's no reason, it doesn't mean the market won't do it. It's... I tell myself this, telling myself, okay, there's no reason for the market to go back below this level. Which means that if it does, I prefer to invalidate, reduce my exposure. Okay. And maybe re-enter later or re-enter higher. I have no problem. If the market does this, I get out here because I don't like the pattern that's forming, I prefer to de-risk. If the market does this, I have no problem telling myself, "Okay, well, I entered lower, but the market is giving me a positive signal again, I'll enter $100 or $200 higher." It's not a big deal if the market allows me to do that afterwards. What do I care in the end? Yes, of course, if I had held, I would not have avoided buying $200 higher. But it also allows me, if the market doesn't do this but falls, well, I reduce, I de-risk, simply. After all, it's risk management. Trading, investing, it's not just technical analysis, it's risk management, knowing where to enter, where to exit, sometimes being wrong, but even when wrong, knowing how to correct a bit or avoid making a big mistake or well. And sometimes, we make a mistake and we let a move pass, it happens. That's how it is. Here, I will always tell you clearly what I do, and sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm right. That's how it is. That's the goal, that's the job, simply. Uh, well, on Ether, for me, long-term, if we go back below this level, I won't like it because we would have a deviation, re-entry, and I would reduce my exposure quite a bit. Already, I had taken profits at this level, $3,000, $3,700 for Ether, my average buy is around $1,600. I entered strongly here. Uh, I entered at this level and then I strongly, strongly reinforced here because it was absurd to go back to such low levels. So you see, even if I don't have the perfect bottom or top, okay, well, it remains an interesting performance. Okay, simply. And the goal, I've passed the age, I want to say, of looking for x30, x40, no, 50%, x2. Okay, we correct, we get another 50% or x2, that's enough, it's more than enough. Everything is a question of risk management and making an x2 on a... in fact, it depends on the capital you have. It depends on the capital you automatically have. Making an x2 on a capital of $2,000, well, it's not the same as making an x2 on a capital of $100,000, automatically. It's completely different. Just like making a plus, I don't know, 30% on a capital of 1 million. Okay? And I can go even further like that. So after, the problem is by saying that, many will say, "Yes, but you need a large capital." No, keep the same process and the same mindset. Whatever your capital, don't try to make x500, x100, I'm exaggerating, x500 might be exaggerated, but x30 even with a small capital. No, have the same principle, the same process as if you had a large capital. It's just, well, practice with a small capital and try to increase your capital through other means, whether it's through crypto but other sources of income elsewhere, whether it's your job, etc., whatever. But be careful not to develop bad habits because you have a small capital, because the day you have a larger capital, it won't work the same way because the psychology is not the same when you manage $100, when you manage $10,000, $100,000, and so on. Uh, well, in any case, on Ether, I don't want to go below this level. And here, medium-term, I don't really like what we're doing medium-term because we're going below the H4 tunnel. I'll look at the daily close. In fact, there's this low here that bothers me because we could say that we are still inside this range. Okay. Or even this range if we close above it. But the fact of losing the H4 tunnel is not something I like to see. So I'll monitor the daily close tomorrow and the day after tomorrow to see if we reject or if we go even lower, and I'll decide. But yes, we have, in any case, the market is very high, that's a fact. And on Ether, we are at the top of a range. Don't forget. Yes, Ether will reach $10,000 one day, but nothing prevents us from going back to test, for example, $3,900 to then go and test $6,000, $7,000, $8,000. It's possible. In any case, as I said, it's risk management. And a person who, in any case, even if they don't de-risk here and don't sell, a person who has a very good entry, for example, $1,600, $1,700, will be much more comfortable because even if this happens, they will still be in profit. Yes, of course, they will take a drawdown. Okay, it's sure they could have optimized by selling here, by re-entering lower. But in any case, the most important thing is your timing, it's your entry point. The person who entered at $4,900 is currently dead. And if you locate your entries well, you will be much more comfortable. So today, I'm not going to analyze the altcoins you asked me for. I'm mainly going to give you some advice because here you might think, wow, there are several mentalities. Here, some will say, "That's it, it's falling, I'm starting to sell everything, to short like crazy." Others will also say, "Ah, it's good, altcoins are falling, it's a sale," and they'll start to say, "Okay, I'm taking the cryptos." Now, that's the worst mentality, I'm telling you. "I'm taking the cryptos that are falling the most, and they're the ones that will rise the most." That's bullshit. Okay, I'll be very simple, the biggest altcoin that's falling is EGLD. Okay? -10%. EGLD -10%. Is it the one that will rise the most? It's the one that lost the most. During this market, we went down by -96%. Very good. It didn't rebound, and now we're losing -10%. We're not far from making a new low. Very good. It's not necessarily the one that will rebound. I'm reversing this mentality. I'm telling you, okay, take the altcoins that were the strongest before. I'm thinking of BNB, okay, which is very strong. I'm thinking of AVE, which is a bit less strong lately. It's true. It's true. Ave is a bit less strong. Or I prefer BNB. I'm still thinking of Hyperliquid, that kind of crypto. Hyperliquid, we already have a rather significant wick. Well, take that kind of crypto. Don't start by saying, "Oh, it's -20%, that's it, I'm entering, it's going to bounce back." No, keep this mindset of saying, "I'm taking the strongest altcoins." Very good. I'm putting in moving averages, I'm drawing my levels. And these altcoins will have the best chance of being bought cheaper because they are strong, and especially they will have the best chance of going up again. Okay? Don't tell yourself, "This crypto lost -20%." If it catches up, if it catches up its -20%, it will make +20% or more, +25% approximately. And no, that's not how it works because what will happen is your altcoin that lost -20%. Okay, it will gain, for example, +10%, +10%. However, BNB, which will lose -5% or another altcoin -5%, well, it will potentially gain +8%, +12%. Okay, I'm giving approximate figures, but it's to make you understand. It will gain 8-12%. However, the difference is that if it continues to fall, it won't do -20% +10%, it will do -20% -40%, while your BNB will do -5% -8% -10%. Okay? What I want to make you understand, it might not be clear what I said, and even I got a bit confused in what I wanted to say. What I want to make you understand is that altcoins that were strong before have a better chance of remaining strong, and they are altcoins that will rebound more easily, that will resume their upward trend more easily, and especially if we don't resume the upward trend and you are in a position, these are altcoins that will lose less value. I'm thinking, as I said, of BNB. In any case, it's simple, you take the altcoins that have performed the best. You see, on Hyper Liquid, we went back to test a high wick, +5%, +5%. Uh, well, it's true that we are re-entering significant levels on Hyper Liquid, to be seen depending on the daily close, but I've always had this mindset that I didn't have before. It's true, before I used to take altcoins that had... even before, not specifically altcoins, but other stocks before I traded crypto, where I told myself, okay, if this asset has lost so much, then automatically if it recovers, I'll make a better performance, and that's the mindset of many people who, even during the last cycle, took, for example, I like this example. Sorry to those who... No, it's true that at one point, I made videos, I was a bit hard on you, and I was insulted in the comments for a long time, but time has proven me right. When I told you that this altcoin would never reach its ATH again, and some told me, "No, no, don't worry, it's the ABCDE wave, it will propel it to $30." Well, currently, it's at 42 cents, no one trades it anymore, and we've completely broken the levels of the Covid crash of 2020. Well, I don't know what I wanted to say anymore. So, I don't know anymore. What I want to make you understand is, well, you take this altcoin that does nothing, that's in a specific trend, that's a weak altcoin, there's nothing to do. Ah yes, that's what I wanted to say. I wanted to tell you, don't start by saying, "Oh, it's at 42 cents, wow, if it goes back to the ATH, that's 4000%, I'm the future Elon Musk or whatever." That's not how it works. Okay, these are altcoins, I don't touch them anymore, there's nothing to do. Maybe I'll touch them in 2-3 years if we have an ES that does this. Okay, something like this. Well, I'm exaggerating. The chart will never look like this, but let's assume something more realistic like this. Uh, maybe then it's interesting, we're returning to a strong momentum. Okay, but that's not the case now. And be careful with this mindset of telling yourself, "Okay, it's not expensive." Just because it's not expensive doesn't mean it's interesting, because it can be not expensive because it's garbage, it's worth nothing, there's no momentum, and it will still be not expensive afterwards. Sometimes they say you have to buy low and sell high. Sometimes it can be interesting to just buy high to sell even higher. Well. In any case, that's the mindset. I'm trying to get you to have by having good risk management, of course. I'll leave you with this. I wish you a very good evening. If you have any questions, don't hesitate.