Transcription
Let's talk about running backs that you should start or sit in week nine of the fantasy football season. Now, keep in mind, we've got four teams on bye. The Browns, the Jets, the Eagles, and the Bucs. So, no Judkins. He might not have played anyway. No Breece Hall, Saquon, who's also nursing an injury. No Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, right? But I'm going to go through all of the matchups this week so you'll know exactly where I rank every single running back. You can pause your screen and go to a specific matchup if you like. There are also time codes in the description.
Let's start off with Thursday Night Football. Ravens at Dolphins. One of the higher overunders of the week. It makes a lot of sense. We've got a ton of explosive players in this game. The Ravens are heavy favorites at seven and a half points when you look at the spread. Lamar Jackson finally. No, I know. I know what happened last week where they said they thought he was going to be there, but this week, we are very confident Lamar Jackson's going to be out there. I would say 99% chance he plays. You probably know that by the time you're watching this. The good news is on their most recent practice report, he was a full participation, uh, full participant. And Harbaugh actually says, "I feel very confident. I expect him to be out there." That is fantastic news for one Derrick Henry, who's my RB6 this week. He goes up against the Miami Dolphins. Name a single running back outside of Bijan Robinson last week who hasn't absolutely dominated the Miami Dolphins defense. I mean, this is a huge week for Derrick Henry to get back on track, just like he did last week. He should have another massive one. I would be shocked if he has under 15 points. Uh, obviously, it's great to get Lamar back. They should be up in this game. They're heavy favorites. All signs point towards a big King Henry game.
On the opposite side, Devin Achane is really game script proof. It's a great matchup as well. The Ravens are the second-best matchup for your running back when you look at schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. So, it doesn't get much better for Thursday night for these two fantasy superstar running backs.
Let's go to the start of the Sunday slate of games. We're starting off with a game that is tied for the second-highest overunder of the week. The Bears at the Bengals. Bears are two and a half point favorites, so it's very close. There should be a ton of fantasy points in this one. D'Andre Swift has been so good since the bye. I mean, he's been really impressive. Has been probably the reason if you have him that you've won each and every week since his bye-week. Now he gets the Cincinnati Bengals. That is the best matchup for your fantasy running backs. He should absolutely smash.
Kendre Miller in deeper formats, maybe you can throw him out there. But I have a feeling that with Joe Flacco and the way that that Bengals offense is operating, there's probably not going to be much garbage time. I think this is going to be a very competitive game. So, I'd be very concerned to start Kendre Miller.
On the opposite side, we are going to go ahead and label Chase Brown a must-start. It was awesome to see him get into, uh, the end zone last week. Now, obviously, it's through the air. I mean, let's, let's be honest, we're not going to be greedy. We're going to take touchdowns no matter how we get them, but he did get a receiving touchdown over 25 PPR points. That is the Chase Brown that you've been dreaming about. It's a great matchup against the Bears. They're the eighth-best matchup for your running back. Last week he had 15 touches. This is what's a little bit concerning for me. I mean, you could honestly view this as a sell-high on Chase Brown going into this week because Samaje Perine is not going away, right? The snap share is getting closer and closer. The opportunities are getting closer and closer. Samaje with 10 touches last week compared to 15 for Chase Brown. Chase Brown is still going to be the preferred running back, but man, I might view this as a sell-high. Regardless, Samaje Perine, if I had to choose between both of the, you know, RB2s in this matchup, it would be Samaje. I think no matter what happens with the game script, he's going to be involved as well on third down. He'll be an important part of that offense. Uh, so both of these backups could have a, a solid role, but I prefer Samaje if you're going to choose one of them as a desperation play. That's all they are, desperation plays.
Okay, Vikings at Lions. 47 and a half point overunder. The Lions are favored by eight and a half points. Now, these are two defenses that are pretty difficult matchups for your fantasy running backs. For the Lions, things are easy because they're heavy favorites in this eight and a half point favorites. Uh, in Detroit, when they're in Detroit, typically that run game is on fire. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, they should both be in your lineups. You know, I will say David Montgomery's role is a little bit concerning this year, how it's continuing to shrink, but this has all the um ingredients. I was going to say recipe. All the ingredients for a really good David Montgomery game. High overunder, Lions are heavy favorites. Both of those guys should be in your lineup.
Now, on the opposite side of the ball, the honeymoon phase for Jordan Mason is over, obviously, because now we have Aaron Jones in the picture here, and you're going to have to really digest that each and every week. I don't view this matchup versus the, you know, third-worst matchup for your fantasy running back, the Detroit Lions defense. Not easy to run against in a matchup where the Vikings are heavy underdogs. I do not anticipate that being a very good game for Jordan Mason. Last time out in a game they trailed the entire time, Aaron Jones was the preferred running back. He outsnapped Jordan Mason. He had nine touches compared to just five for Jordan Mason. And obviously when they're down in games and needing to pass the ball, Aaron Jones is going to be their preferred running back, right? So I would say Jordan Mason's got a very low floor. I mean, even if he gets a touchdown, he could still score under 10 points, uh, in the wrong matchup, and this feels like the wrong matchup. So, I would suggest to most of you guys, find another option other than Jordan Mason, unless it's truly your best name. Aaron Jones is as well, just a flex option, not even a locked-and-loaded guy, he's just a flex option, and you hope that these guys on their limited touches can convert.
Now, here's the issue. Kirk Cousins, he's going to be out for the entire year. I don't think he was going to play this week anyway. It was probably always going to be Jaren Hall. But not only do you have a bad matchup with a split backfield, but you also have to ask the question, how successful, successful can Jaren Hall lead drives with this offense? Right? We don't know the answer to that. So, a lot of question marks with that Minnesota Vikings running back room. I don't like it.
Um, let's jump to the Panthers at the Packers. 44 and a half point overunder. The spread is 12 and a half points in favor of the Packers. That is the second-largest spread of the week. So, we do need to talk about the Panthers running back room because there has been some news this week. So, head coach Canales on that situation on the rotation said things like, "Chuba Hubbard has meant a lot to this team. We wanted to give him an opportunity following his calf injury. We cannot ignore the fact that Raheem Mostert has been exceptional." I'm, I'm a little bit concerned with that verbiage because Canales, the head coach, is saying in past tense, "Chuba has meant a lot for this team." As in, he at one point meant a lot. It doesn't feel like he's talking about a present, now, and a future for Chuba Hubbard. Then they went on to ask, "Hey, is Raheem Mostert going to get a heavier workload?" And Canales said, "It's something that we're looking at." So right now, if you're going to start one of these names, in my opinion, it has got to be Raheem Mostert. Even when it was a split backfield, he was the more effective guy with his touches. Now, there's a really good chance that Raheem gets more and more opportunities. I wouldn't be surprised if he even starts this week. Uh, so, uh, if you're going to start one of these guys, it's going to be Raheem Mostert, but I haven't even labeled him a must-start because it's a terrible matchup. Even if Raheem starts for this team, terrible matchup. The Packers are 30th in fantasy points allowed. And you know, we actually look at that opposite than most people. So, the third-worst matchup for your fantasy running backs, right? They do not give up many points to fantasy running backs. You have a matchup where the second-largest spread of the week, not in favor of Raheem Mostert, not in favor of Chuba Hubbard. You have a great defense that you're facing off against. It's very likely that in the second half, this team is not able to establish the run game. Exactly what happened last week against the Bills. That's probably what's going to happen this week against the Packers. So, I would be very cautious with these Panther running backs. If you have to start one of them, it's Raheem Mostert, but lower your expectations. And Chuba Hubbard is a desperation Hail Mary at best.
On the opposite side of the ball, of course, Josh Jacobs is going to be in your lineup on a very good team. If he were to miss time for whatever reason, then Emanuel Wilson would be a decent spot start.
Okay, Broncos at Texans. 39 and a half point overunder, which by the way, is the lowest overunder of the week. The spread is one and a half points in the Texans' favor. So, at home, let's give the Houston Texans some respect. They've really hit their stride. Their defense looks great. Now, this is a situation where a couple of backfields that are really difficult to navigate week in, week out, right? We know that with the Broncos and the Texans. Now, let's start off with the Broncos. Obviously, as we all know, Jaleel McLaughlin ended up with three touchdowns on Sunday. That was great for him. However, he only touched the ball, what was it, like eight times? Yeah, he had seven rushing attempts, one target, eight touches, three touchdowns. So, it's not like his role drastically improved. I mean, we're still seeing Javonte Williams with 33 snaps, second there. Jaleel McLaughlin with 17. They're still including Tyler Badie into the rotation. You're still seeing Javonte Williams with 17 touches. So, I'm not going to come on the show here and tell you, oh, you got to start Jaleel McLaughlin now, and you can't start Javonte. No, I would still prefer Javonte Williams over Jaleel McLaughlin. He is in that flex territory for me. Low-end RB2 this week. Jaleel McLaughlin still remains a risky start. Until you're seeing this guy consistently get double-digit touches, you just can't rely on him on a week-to-week basis. And the Texans just shut down CMC. They're a legit defense.
Now, on the opposite side of the ball, how about Dameon Pierce? I got destroyed by the comment sections for being so in love with Dameon Pierce this year. He was one of our favorite stashes. Then he turned in one of the best waiver wires. And then that week five matchup versus the Ravens, obviously it didn't work out, but man, those who, like myself, shout out to the Dameon Pierce truthers, stayed positive and looked at the bright side and looked at the numbers behind the curtain, it's really been paying off for us. Last week against the 49ers, Dameon Pierce comes in here, has 11 carries for 62 yards, very efficient, very effective, had four catches for 49 yards, dual-threat guy, over 15 fantasy points. And that's what you want from Dameon Pierce. You want to see him used in the air, on the ground, in really close games. That's probably exactly what you're going to see against the Broncos. Again, I would not be shocked if Dameon Pierce has another day over 10 PPR points where he's heavily used on the ground and through the air. Obviously, Devin Singletary is always going to be there. It's a little bit frustrating. I mean, last week, for example, he had 19 total touches. He looked completely ineffective, but they're always going to use two running backs in this backfield, but Dameon Pierce is the one that can win you your day through the air. That's why he is a spot start for us in our top 22.
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Let's go to Falcons at Patriots. 45 and a half point overunder. The Patriots are favored by five and a half points. Bijan Robinson coming off. I can't remember the last time we had a bust game from Bijan Robinson. Like, truthfully, it's been a long time since Bijan has not paid off for you. In this game, he has just 5.8 fantasy points, nine carries, 25 yards, got three targets in the air. I mean, he was averaging like 150-plus all-purpose yards per game before this game. Had Miami. There was every reason for him to go out and dominate. But they don't play the game on paper, do they? That's why this game is unpredictable. We take all the information that we can and we make our best guesstimation. And I'm going to go ahead and make a guesstimation here that Bijan's going to get right back on track. There's no way you're going to bench this guy. Still my RB3 heading into week number nine. He's going to shake it off. This happens, guys. Every single player can bust any given week.
On the opposite side of the ball, Rhamondre Stevenson continues to be the dominant running back from a usage perspective in New England. Uh, we did see some signs of life for, for Ty Montgomery, excuse me. He had those, uh, 10 carries, 75 yards, excuse me, seven and a half yards per carry. That's great. But still, you saw Stevenson get 16 total touches. Uh, so he was still by far the preferred running back. 50 snaps out of 68, just 14 for Ty Montgomery. And for some reason, we're still getting Terrell Edmunds involved. So, until further notice, if you're going to start one of these guys, it's not a great start regardless, but it's going to be Stevenson, my RB24, a low-end, low, low, low-end RB2 this week.
Let's jump to the 49ers at the Giants. CMC, another guy who rarely busts in fantasy football. Did not have his best game last week. It really doesn't matter who CMC plays, you're going to put him in your lineup. Now for the Giants, it's a middle-of-the-pack matchup against the 49ers. Obviously, Jalen Warren, he's out for the year. We knew that as soon as we saw that play. He sent a great, you know, supportive message, uh, grateful message rather on X. It's good to see him doing well mentally, but this puts Tyrone Tracy Jr. straight into our lineups. It really does. I know that might sound crazy to some of you guys, but Tyrone Tracy Jr. last year as a rookie was a must-start pretty much each and every week when he won that job. And we know that when Jalen Warren went down, Tyrone Tracy Jr. saw almost 60% of all the opportunities, snaps, target share, rushing attempts. So, we're going to put Tyrone straight into our lineups. This Giants offense is feisty. Don't expect them to sit back now that Jalen Warren is out. I think Tracy Jr. could be, um, very heavily involved.
Okay, let's go to the Colts at the Steelers. 49 and a half point overunder. The Colts are favored by three points. Um, let's start with Jonathan Taylor. Of course, you're going to play him. He's RB1 on the year. He's my, my RB1 this week. Now, when I look at Jonathan Taylor, we have to actually start to contextualize how impressive his year is so far. So, every player with 850 rushing yards, 12-plus rushing touchdowns through eight weeks in the NFL season for the entire, however long the NFL has existed, over a hundred years. It's Jonathan Taylor who's done it. Jim Brown, Terrell Davis, Eric Dickerson, and Priest Holmes. He's in rarified air right now, and I mean, he's leading you to a championship.
On the opposite side of the ball, Jaylen Warren's a great play. He has completely taken over that Steelers backfield. There was a moment there where we weren't sure how involved Najee Harris would get, but another week where we see, you know, just an absolutely dominant performance from Jaylen Warren. Had 15 total touches. Uh, continues to be the guy in that backfield. Didn't work out versus a really good Green Bay Packers, uh, defense, but he should get back on track against the Colts.
Okay, Chargers at Titans. 42 and a half point overunder. The Chargers are favored by a heavy 10 and a half points. I think that spread should be much bigger, and the Chargers probably win this by multiple touchdowns. Kendre Miller, great matchup for Kendre Miller this week. The Titans are the third-best matchup for your fantasy running backs. He completely dominated last week on Monday Night Football. He is the clear-cut, unquestioned guy in that backfield. He's in a great offense now. Has a great matchup. You start him. Top, top 12 play for me this week.
On the opposite side of the ball, you know, we've seen this trend for multiple weeks now where the Titans start to use both of these running backs in their backfield. And for multiple weeks, Tyjae Spears looks like the more effective running back, the running back with more juice. Right? This week, you can see Tyjae led the way in snaps. It's pretty much been back and forth since Tyjae came back between these two guys. Uh, Tyjae had 12 total opportunities, 13 for Tony Pollard, but again, when you look at just how effective these guys were, nine carries, 59 yards for Tyjae. Way more effective than 11 for 44. Uh, obviously Tyjae is also the better pass catcher through the air. So I would go out and say if you have to start one of these guys, first off, it's a desperation play. Recognize that. If you're going to put one of these guys into your lineup, you're probably not, uh, a favorite to make your playoffs, right? But if you're going to start one of them, I would still lean Tony Pollard just because he gets more of the touches. Uh, but it's really a toss-up at this point, honestly, guys.
Um, okay, let's go to the Saints at the Rams. This is the start of the afternoon slate of games. Uh, 44 and a half point overunder. This is the largest spread of the week in favor of the Los Angeles Rams. Alvin Kamara. I can't tell you how frustrating it is watching the Saints games. If you have Alvin Kamara, I have him in the Flock League. So, I, I get why you would be frustrated to talk about Alvin Kamara because I'm annoyed. I'm annoyed talking about it. I mean, we're talking about one of the greatest pass-catching running backs of all time. And Kellen Moore has just decided that, you know, there's no point in using him in the air. It's so frustrating. Even in games when they're down, he can be so effective for you. Make your life easier. Stop trying to hit the home run ball every single play. Dump it off to Alvin Kamara. Sorry, but they're just not doing it. Kellen Moore doesn't care. He doesn't care. Alvin Kamara, eight touches. Eight touches. And the vast majority of all of his opportunities came in the first half. I mean, he had over five points in the first half. He finishes with six and a half. I don't know what it would take for Alvin Kamara to be relevant. It would probably take, we've already seen a Kendre Miller injury. Maybe we would also need a Jamaal Williams injury and a Taysom Hill. I don't know. Like, I mean, I'll be honest with you. Like, there's not much juice with Alvin Kamara anymore. I'm, I'm watching it. He's not the same player. So I get it. But like, it's, I don't know where the grass gets greener. It certainly doesn't get greener against the Los Angeles Rams, who are the second-worst matchup for your fantasy running back. I expect him to be terrible this week, but purely because he's a starting running back for a team and should get volume. He's in my RB3 range. Uh, fringe RB3, my RB26 on the week.
On the opposite side, start Kyren Williams with confidence coming off the bye. He should be back in business.
All right, let's look at the Jags at the Raiders here. Travis Etienne is set up to come back from the bye and absolutely smash. It's a great matchup against the Raiders. Top 10 matchup for your fantasy running back. He should be in your lineup. The Jags are favorites even though it's in Las Vegas.
And on the opposite side of the ball, it is a difficult matchup for Zamir White, but you would anticipate with, you know, Josh Jacobs and, you know, that coaching staff. Surely, they figured some things out after the bye. They're going to come into this week with some game plan to get Zamir White more involved. I still think he's a must-start purely because of the talent and the volume that he's going to receive, but I can recognize that, you know, the, the floor is not what we wanted it to be when you drafted him.
Okay, let's go to the Chiefs at the Bills. 51 and a half point overunder, tied for the second-highest overunder of the week. Uh, Chiefs coming off a big Monday Night Football win. They are one and a half point favorites in Buffalo. Kind of shocking, honestly, but this should be a really fun game for fantasy football purposes. Look, we, at the time of recording this, I'm not 100% sure how serious the Isiah Pacheco injury is. Let's live in two different worlds. The first world we're going to live in is a world where Pacheco, Kareem, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are all healthy. Well, if that's the case, every single week is going to be Russian roulette. You have no idea which guy's going to get the goal-line opportunities. I mean, right now, it seems like Kareem Hunt two weeks ago, it felt like we've seen multiple weeks where Isiah Pacheco was getting the goal-line opportunities. It's a desperation play, all these guys. It's a great matchup, but I just, I don't know who the hell you start, and I think you're lying to yourself if you, if you think you do know. Now, in the scenario that Isiah Pacheco is out, I think it makes things a lot clearer, and you can start Kareem Hunt with confidence because it is a good matchup.
On the opposite side of the ball, you never sit James Cook. You let James Cook in your lineups and you lock him and you load him. All right, absolute stud of a running back this year.
Okay, let's go to Sunday Night Football. We've got the Seahawks at the Commanders. Uh, 45 and a half point overunder. Again, Sunday Night Football, Seahawks are favored by three points even though it's in Washington. And I understand why they're favored by three points. Uh, a bunch of running backs that you just, you have no confidence in whatsoever in this matchup. I mean, let's be honest, this might be the most viewed matchup in this video. A lot of people are probably clicking on it right now in the time code. I want to know what to do with the Seahawks running backs. I want to know what to do with Brian Robinson Jr. Look, here's the deal. Let's start with the Commanders backfield. Brian Robinson Jr. is only going to be a good fantasy asset in games where the Commanders are competitive or up in the game. Now, if Jayden Daniels is not out there this week, very low chance that this team is competitive. Even if Jayden Daniels is out there, you're facing a Seahawks rush defense that is legit. They're a tough defense to go up against. So, I have Brian Robinson Jr. as a fringe RB23, a flex at best, low-end RB2, high-end RB3. I do not have much confidence in him. He's a talented player, but it's just not working right now without Jayden Daniels. There are so many injuries to that Commanders team. Uh, Brian's got all the talent in the world, but it's just not clicking.
On the opposite side of the ball, if you have to start one Seahawk, why the hell wouldn't it be Zach Charbonnet? We've had seven weeks of a sample size where this team has told you in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios, they want Zach Charbonnet to be the guy, and he's been really good in that role, to be fair. So, Kenneth Walker, if he's going to score a touchdown, it's got to be outside the red zone. That's just how this team is operating. I prefer Zach Charbonnet. I think Kenneth Walker is a more talented running back. I don't think it matters. I just don't think it matters. Ultimately, all three of these guys are more likely to disappoint you than make you happy. All right, that's the nature of fantasy right now.
Just before Monday Night Football, I got to tell y'all, I'm on an absolute heater right now in my DFS game. I just won last week's Quick Six Super Slam contest. We've got number one, uh, place here. We had Barkley, Taylor, Cook, those guys at the top of our lineups just dominated, which means we won $500. Now, here is my lineup for this week. We're, we're rocking with Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, welcome back, Puka. Kyren Williams, D'Andre Swift against the Bengals, Mark Andrews against the Colts, and Etienne against the Raiders. You can create your own lineup. It's simple. All you got to do is download the Fast Draft app, use my promo code LAND. I'll match your deposit up to 50 bucks, and then you can create your own lineup, whatever you want it to be, right? So, check that out in the description if you want to have some fun on Fast Draft's Quick Six Super Slam Contest. I'd love for you to come compete against me. All right. All right. I need some more competition over there.
All right, let's go to Monday Night Football. We've got the Cardinals at the Cowboys. 53 and a half point overunder. This is the highest overunder of the week. All right, the Cowboys are favored by three points in Dallas. Now for Arizona, they did just recently release Michael Carter. Now, they are planning on bringing him back to the team. We saw that report as well. But if anything, I already had this confidence if they release Michael Carter or not. But if anything, that just tells you Emari Demercado is a really good start this week. He's my RB17. He's completely dominated opportunities for this team, uh, in the last couple of weeks. And he faces the Cowboys, which is the fourth-best matchup for your fantasy running backs. Obviously, Emari Demercado has to go out there and produce, but there are every sign in the book to suggest that Emari Demercado is a great play this week. I would play him over all the guys we talked about in the previous matchup, the Charbonnets, the Walkers, the Brian Robinson Jr.s. Uh, he is a confident play for me this week regardless of the outcome.
Now on the opposite side of the ball, breaking news. You're going to start Javonte Williams. One of the best picks of fantasy football this year. Yeah, he's going straight back into your lineup and he's going to be playing for you.
Guys, I appreciate you so much watching the video. Do me a favor, hit that like button and show some love. Subscribe if you like the content. And I will be releasing my wide receiver version of this video in just hours from now. So, make sure you're subscribed and you've turned your notifications on so you don't miss it. Let's get prepared for week 9. Good luck. Draft with me every night this week on the Fast Draft app where there are thousands of dollars to be won weekly. Getting started is easy. Download the Fast Draft app. Use the promo code LAND at signup to get your deposit match up to $50. That's up to 10 free entries on us. And when you finish your first DFS contest, I'll send you my weekly rankings completely free. Check out the link in the pin comment to start drafting today.