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Iran has taken another deep strategic move, with the Houthi group now joining the game. >> Previously, Saudi Arabia had two maritime exits: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea via Bab el-Mandeb. Now, with the Houthis blocking it, what will happen next? Iran produces cheap drones. Iran teaches the Houthi group to produce this technology. It's not high-tech technology. You use quantity. Take the parts, take the technology, produce it easily. Previously, Iran had discussions with Oman about seizing Kuwait and Bahrain. >> Then let Oman rule. >> This is the general feed system in the market. This section is Maxfli. >> Fuel cost management system with no hidden fees, plus benefits and Max Points. >> Hello, hello, viewers. Welcome to the Dee Bua program. Hello, P' Thani. Today we are talking about Iran again. This war is dragging on. They fight, they stop, like boxers, punching back and forth, with rest periods. Now, Israel has left the ring, and the United States has stepped in. From a 2-on-1 situation, it has become a one-on-one. >> A one-on-one. >> A one-on-one. Will this pair of boxers win by knockout, or will it go to the scorecards? When the round ends, will it be a draw, or will someone win by points? Who will the judges raise the hand for? This is something that needs to be analyzed. Today, we will continue our discussion because the current situation, as we know, after the MOU was signed, there have been violations of the MOU. The main point is about the Strait of Hormuz. >> Because it relates to oil transportation, global economy, and the upcoming elections later this year, or what they call midterm elections in America. If the economy collapses, if the economy is bad, President Trump's approval ratings are currently at their lowest. >> Uh, during his two terms in office. Therefore, he must do everything to regain this. >> And how will this war continue to drag on? Now, the Houthi group. >> Uh-huh. >> Has joined the game. >> >> Iran has taken another deep strategic move. Previously, Saudi Arabia had two maritime exits, right? >> Yes. >> The Strait of Hormuz, uh, Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea via Bab el-Mandeb. Both are straits. The main route is Hormuz. >> But now that Iran has closed it, the oil and gas pipelines from East to West. >> Uh, flow out that way. The nose can still breathe once. Now, with the Houthis blocking it, what will happen next, P' Thani? >> Actually, we need to divide these groups into three. >> Uh-huh. >> The Houthi group is on Iran's side, Hezbollah, etc. >> Uh-huh. >> And then there's Israel and the United States. Now, there will be three new countries joining: Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. >> So, they are America's allies. These three countries are quite clear that they are on America's side. >> Uh-huh. >> On the other side, there's the side that hasn't taken sides yet. >> Uh-huh. >> That is Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, these are still in the middle, neutral. Oman, like this. We can see that the situation is likely to reach a point where it's quite clear what each person's role and duty is. Pakistan, Turkey, are also quite trusted intermediaries. Captain thinks that in this kind of situation, will the United States play the role of the "godfather," going all out against Iran, or will it just stop here, conduct air strikes, and then negotiate again? And then they negotiate and stop, and then fight again, something like this. What will happen? >> There are many factors that will affect the victory or defeat in this war. >> Uh-huh. >> But I have said in many places and many times that you don't need to look at other factors. There is only one factor. To fight, you need weapons, right? >> Yes. >> If the weapons run out, you can't fight. >> Yes. >> If you want to fight, you can't. >> Uh-huh. >> We look at this point as the main point. Other issues like the economy, etc., those will take some time to see. >> But weapons, when the ammunition runs out, when you are shooting at each other from opposite sides, your magazine is empty, how can you fight? >> You fight with your fists. >> Uh, you have to fight, right? Simply put, you have to land troops. If the United States runs out of missiles, they have to land troops. >> Uh, and how many hundreds of thousands will die this time? Prepare, prepare. >> Don't say hundreds of thousands, even thousands is enough, then it's over. >> It's not sustainable, right? Because the political conditions in America are not. >> Uh-huh. >> And especially when you, wow, you send troops to fight abroad, it has nothing to do with America. The group that supports it, Trump's America, wow, it's fractured now. >> Yes. >> Right? >> Right? The media used to support it, now they are criticizing it. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, saying, "You lied to us, didn't you?" Uh, "You said America First." "You said America First." When Trump announced his first term as president, he said the war in Iraq was stupid, foolish. Only fools would do this. >> Uh-huh. >> And you are doing it yourself. >> Uh, when he started the war, he said it would end within how long? >> Two weeks. >> Now it's. >> Over four months. >> Uh, two months, four months. It will become four years. This, this, the conditions in America, it's definitely not possible. Now, you mentioned an interesting point earlier about which countries are on America's side, which are allies, and which are neutral. >> Uh, like, yes. >> The country that is America's enemy now is only Iran. >> So, Iran's allies, no need to mention Hezbollah, Yemen, etc. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, Iran, only Iran. And then there are neutral countries, and then there are countries that are America's allies. Now, there's something interesting. >> This point, do you know what it is? >> Uh-huh. >> It also relates to the sects in Islam. >> Divided into sects. >> It's divided into sects. Like, as we know, Iran's Shia sect. Iran is the largest country, 95%. >> Yes. >> And then there are Central Asian countries, Azerbaijan, etc. No need to mention those. We're talking about the Middle East. >> >> And besides Iran, there's Iraq. >> Iraq has many Shia. >> Iraq is over half. >> Over half are Shia, 60% are Shia. And besides that, there's another country, which is surprising, Bahrain. A tiny country. >> Many, many. 60-90% are Persian Shia Muslims. >> Yes. >> They are the majority of the population. This answers the question of why Bahrain is the base for the large US military presence. >> Ah, why? >> Because if you were the ruler of Bahrain, and you were a Sunni Muslim. >> Uh-huh. >> And the population of the country is Shia and of Persian descent, would you be afraid? >> Oh, you would be afraid of being overthrown. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Would you sleep at night? >> And you would need to bring in troops to help. So, what do you have to do? >> Set up an army. >> Now, who would dare to revolt? >> Yes, yes. >> Right? The people. It's clear that being an ally of America sometimes has political reasons behind it. >> Oh, everyone has. Everyone has. It's not like, "Oh, I love America, I love." >> >> >> >> "I like Elvis, I like this." No, no. It's not like, "Hey, if America wasn't there." >> Do you remember when Trump went to Saudi Arabia before, what did he say when he came back? >> What did he say? >> Uh, he said that if America wasn't there. >> Died. >> It's like he said something crude. I don't understand. >> And recently, he talked about Bin Salman. >> Uh, he said, "Why? What do you want me to do?" I don't want to say it. It's a bit vulgar. >> >> Now, let's look at the countries with Shia influence. Yemen. >> Uh, even though Shia isn't the majority like in the countries mentioned before, Yemen is about 40-45%. >> Uh, the Houthis, that is. >> >> So, half the population, a little over half, are still Sunni. >> Saudi Arabia, America also supports the government. >> Yes. >> Uh, but there's a group called what? >> What group? >> The Houthi group. >> A rebellion? >> Uh, this group, no need to think about what sect they belong to. Shia, definitely. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Shia group. >> Really? >> And who supports them? >> Iran. >> Iran. Uh, and look, put the map in the middle. >> The Arabian Peninsula is like this. To the east is the Strait of Hormuz. This is Bab el-Mandeb. The countries that don't have to pass through the strait are only two countries. >> Oman is on the side. >> Hormuz. Yemen is on the Bab el-Mandeb side. >> And these two sides are connected to the open sea. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Yes, yes. >> Do you know what sect Oman follows? >> I don't know. >> Neither Sunni nor Shia. >> Ah, another sect? >> Uh, and this moderate sect is called the Ibadi sect. >> Uh-huh. >> Complicated. >> So, Oman is very interesting. Oman's role in maintaining neutrality. And do you know that in mediating between the United States and Iran, besides Pakistan and Turkey, >> Uh-huh. >> There's also Oman. >> Uh, yes, it's next door. >> >> But you can't see Oman. >> Not really. >> You have to go around behind the Buddha to see that they are gilding it. But before, there was. >> Uh, but if you look in front, you'll see Pakistan. But comparing it to gilding behind the Buddha might not be appropriate, because it's Islam. >> >> It's behind the scenes. >> Uh, this is Yemen. I've already said that it's divided into two factions, becoming two governments. >> Yes, yes. >> But the group that actually has influence is what? >> Uh-huh. >> The Houthi group. >> Yemen has both north and south. >> Uh, the Houthi group. >> Yemen's government doesn't have much power. >> Yes. >> If you want to rule, rule. Announce whatever you want to announce. >> Central government. >> But the Houthis have influence. It's not easy for Iran to send supplies, right? >> How to send? >> Uh, they have to cross Oman, and so on. And Iran doesn't have the capability. Iran uses the method of producing cheap drones. Using cheap weapons to fight expensive ones. Using many to fight few. >> Uh, Iran teaches. >> Uh-huh. Produce it? >> Uh-huh. >> Uh-huh. >> The Houthi group produces. >> Oh. >> Because, do you know, this technology is not high-tech technology? >> It's tech. You use quantity. >> Take the parts. >> Take the parts, take the technology, produce it easily. >> Uh, the Houthis have a lot of these. They don't have to wait for Iran to send supplies. >> They might send, they might send from elsewhere. >> Uh-huh. >> And the Houthis are like Iran. >> Yes. >> Better than Iran. >> Better how? >> Iran. >> Uh-huh. >> Still has assets on the ground. >> Uh-huh. >> Freshwater stations, oil wells, etc. Yemen doesn't have much. >> Don't worry, if they attack, they attack. >> Only mountains. >> Only mountains. And America attacks. >> Uh-huh. >> Attacks. Saudi Arabia also attacks. >> Saudi Arabia also bombards. >> Heavily bombards. >> Bombards, and then looks, wow, the mountains are still there. Attack again. The mountains are still barely scratched. Or maybe not enough bombardment? >> Oh, it's useless. Bombarding is useless. >> Bombarding back and forth, both Saudi Arabia and America gave up. >> It's all underground. >> Looking at the mountains, they don't seem to be damaged. Why are they damaged? >> Not much damage. So they stopped, right? >> This is why there's nothing to bombard. And these facilities are few. And the parts that exist are on the government's side. Bombardment misses, hits the other government, right? >> Yes, yes. >> Right? So, what to do? >> It becomes an advantage. >> It becomes an advantage. >> Aridity becomes an asset. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? >> Uh-huh. >> Strange. >> Now, speaking of Yemen. >> Speaking of another similar thing, Lebanon. Lebanon has Sunni and Shia, about 30-35%. >> Uh-huh. >> There are Christians too. >> Uh, Christians, and others, 30%. There are also fire worshipers, Zoroastrians, local beliefs, etc. But Sunni and Shia are quite close. >> Yes. >> The situation is like Yemen. >> Uh-huh. >> The Lebanese government is Sunni. >> Yes. >> But. >> Hezbollah. >> Uh, has no role. The one with the role is Hezbollah. >> Uh-huh. >> Hezbollah is a top warrior, well-armed. >> And it's easy for Hezbollah to get supplies. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? They reach Syria by land. Iran also has the Quds Force. >> Yes, yes. >> So, the situation will be similar to Yemen. >> Yes, it's an internal conflict. >> Uh-huh. The Yemeni government is a Sunni government. >> Yes. >> Lebanon also has a Sunni government, but the real ruler of the country. >> In Lebanon, it's Hezbollah. >> Yes. >> A strong group. >> The group with Hezbollah. >> Uh-huh. >> Can order what to do. In Yemen, it's the Houthi group. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, the Yemeni government is powerless. The Houthi group says they've closed the Red Sea. This morning, they just announced they will boycott Saudi Arabia again. Now they are exchanging fire, long-range. >> They are still fighting. They are still fighting. >> Uh, they are still fighting. Yemen fires cheap missiles, and they hit Aramco refineries. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, Saudi Arabia doesn't give up. They fire at mountains. You hit refineries, I hit mountains. >> >> Let's see who goes bankrupt first. Observers, please wait and see. Next, Kuwait. Kuwait also has US bases. Why? Because the Shia group in Kuwait is 30%. >> Oh, really? >> Oh, quite a lot. >> It's quite scary. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh-huh. >> But Kuwait is an old subordinate of America. >> Uh-huh. >> Everything is America. >> >> But still, they need to have bases for peace of mind. >> Uh, this is another factor. 30% of this, if they unite and cause trouble, there are examples in Lebanon, right? >> Shia in, uh, Yemen. >> Yes. >> The Houthi group. Uh, this is Kuwait. They probably won't let it happen. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? In Syria, there are also about 20% Shia. >> Uh-huh. >> The former president, Assad, was a follower of Shia, the Alawite sect, which is a sub-sect of Shia. We can see that when we bring up religious sects, the division of who is an ally of America and who is not, we can see it from this perspective. People don't talk about it much. They analyze weapons, analyze everything, and people talk about it a lot. Let's look at it from this angle. >> Now, seeing this picture, we will know who is allied with whom. >> The Houthi group, Iran can definitely order them. >> Oh, yes. >> >> Because, as I said, Saudi Arabia has two nostrils for breathing. One is Hormuz, the other is Bab el-Mandeb on the Red Sea side. If one nostril is blocked, and there's a pipe to the other side. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, now, if the other nostril is closed, where can Saudi Arabia send its oil? >> Nowhere. >> >> You said in the previous clip, didn't you? You said they would go around the Cape of Good Hope. That would be crazy. It's too far. >> >> It's possible, but it would be very difficult. 60 days. >> And can the Suez Canal handle that volume of traffic? >> Uh, no. It can only handle about 2 million barrels per day. >> >> Don't forget that the Suez Canal is not. >> It's small. >> It's small. Second, it's not just Saudi Arabia that uses it. >> There's traffic that needs to be. What do you call it? Large ships can't pass. >> And the quota is full now. Where else can you go, except to dig? >> >> 2 million, 2 million barrels. That's it, right? And Saudi Arabia's economy is solely based on oil. >> >> Saudi Arabia exports about 5 million barrels per day. >> >> Right? >> If they send it through the Suez Canal, it's 2 million. >> And what about the other 3 million? >> If it goes through the Suez Canal, it goes to Europe, etc. >> That's where the 2 million go. >> It can go, but if it has to go around. >> And the other 3 million stops. It can't go. >> It can't go because the oil cannot be sent. >> The major buyers are all here. >> Yes. >> China, Japan, South Korea, etc. >> Uh-huh. >> China is the world's factory. Industrial countries with heavy production. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, they are all around here. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, and where will Saudi Arabia go next? And the Houthi group's declaration to close the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb. >> Is it a squeeze? >> Absolutely. The goal is to make oil prices rise to $150. Currently, it has dropped a bit, or $96. >> And do you know that before, Iran had discussions with Oman about seizing Kuwait and Bahrain? >> And let Oman rule? >> That would be a bit exaggerated. Seizing them would be a big deal. >> They can't do that now. But if the United States loses influence. >> It could be scary, because it could. >> It's small, it's possible. >> Because if you look at legitimacy, countries, in the past, in Arabia, there were none. >> Oh, they were all Arabs. >> They were tribes. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? >> Uh-huh. >> Saudi Arabia is the group of the Saud family, right? Western America supported them to get oil concessions. The King of Jordan, the Kings of various countries, they were chosen like this, and then divided. >> There must be hundreds of tribes, right? Countries that are truly old, with ancient civilizations, are Iran. >> Iran is an older civilization. >> >> Oman is also quite old. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Oman follows a different sect. >> And Oman's territory is far from others, outside the gulf. >> Uh-huh. Outside the gulf, to put it simply, if you wanted to invade in the past, you had to cross the desert, which was not convenient. >> Right? So they have their own uniqueness. Therefore, here, we can see that this war will be clearly divided. >> Uh-huh. >> According to. >> Sects, geography. >> And the consequences of colonialism that divided them. >> Uh-huh. >> During the British era, to get their oil, right? Therefore, legitimacy. >> Uh-huh. >> Simply put, take Bahrain as an example. >> Uh-huh. >> The majority of the population, you are of Persian descent, Muslim Shia. Why is the ruler. >> Arab? >> Arab, Sunni. >> It was managed by the British, right? >> Right? >> Uh-huh. >> Where is the legitimacy? And if America loses its role here. >> Uh-huh. >> As I told you, what Iran discussed with Oman. >> Oh, oh. >> It could happen because they see that you have no legitimacy from the beginning. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? The population wants change. >> Uh, and if America is gone, Iran invades Bahrain, Kuwait. Oh. >> Oh my, that would be fun. >> Uh-huh. >> Like Iraq invading Kuwait before? >> Yes. >> And will America come back? >> I would say, instead of pork satay, let's call it meat satay. Like chewing meat satay. >> I don't know if America will agree. >> But America's bases are almost gone now. >> Maybe they will bring them back. >> Bomb Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia retreats to Jordan. Now they bomb Jordan. >> Or it seems there are only 5 left that are still working. >> They will run out. It's on the ground. Iran's is. >> Underground. >> It's under the mountain. >> Uh, that's true. They have an advantage over each other. >> Uh-huh. They fight, but neither can hit. >> Uh-huh. That's true. Then, in the end, they flee and gather in Israel. >> Now they are using Israel as their main base. >> Uh, and they are fighting now. It's a matter of Muslims versus Jews. >> Oh. >> The problem has changed. >> Uh-huh. >> It's not that the United States and its Arab allies are fighting Iran. >> It has become a war between Muslims and. >> Oh, if that's the case, how can they survive? >> Uh-huh. And these countries that are said to be allies, allies of America. >> Actually, if the war's problem changes to Muslims versus Jews, would you dare. >> Uh-huh. >> To openly support. >> Yes. >> The other side, Israel, America? >> You shouldn't, because it's like. >> Betrayal. >> Uh-huh. Right? >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the Su Tao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.