Transcription
What's up, guys? It's Dan from Coinb Trading. Today, I'm going to explain why the next two days are going to be crazy for the crypto market.
If this is the kind of content that you enjoy, then be sure to smash that like button, subscribe to the channel, and ping that notification bell. Before we get started, do keep in mind that nothing in this video is financial advice. It's just my personal analysis of the crypto market. Your analysis could be different. And if it is, that's awesome because the more difference of opinion that we have, the better traders and the better investors we're all going to become.
So, I'll quickly start off, guys, by just giving you, I guess, a quick recap of what I discussed yesterday. Basically, I've been tracking these kind of mini cycles on Bitcoin on the daily chart over the last, I would say, I don't know, a month and a half maybe. Uh, and as you can see, uh, each mini cycle is either kind of like a big up move or a big down move. And then in between those mini cycles, we kind of have this resetting period. And we are kind of approaching the end of this resetting period with the next mini cycle set to start sometime around August 9th. Maybe it'll be August 8th. So, like either this Friday, this Saturday, sometime over the weekend, who knows? That's just that just what it seems to be.
Uh, and as I pointed out in yesterday's video, when we have the daily RSI that's this oversold, that suggests that that we're going to get basically a bounce rather than a continuation lower, which basically means that the chances of this uh next um mini cycle being to the upside is high because again prices are already so oversold that the chances of there being a continuation lower is just is just low from an RSI perspective.
Uh and some of you guys might remember that of course I was explaining uh what uh what are the catalysts going to be, right? Like that's what everyone's always asking. What are the catalysts? What are the catalysts? and I had outlined three and what's pretty crazy guys is that all three of these catalysts have I mean I guess it's up for debate as to whether they've happened or not over the last 24 hours but uh there's just yeah I'll go through each one.
Uh so we'll start with uh with this news I was saying yesterday that Steve Woodoff would be going to Russia and then potentially doing some negotiations and that we would potentially see some kind of positive developments out of that. And what's actually crazy is that that's exactly what we saw. And uh if you've been watch if you were watching the uh the markets closely yesterday, you might have noticed that as soon as Trump posted on Truth Social saying like, "Yeah, like we've had some positive developments there. Uh the market started perking up, crypto started perking up." That all happened right when that news started coming out. Of course, it wasn't I'm not saying that there was a big rally or anything by any means, but you did get that good news come out. And now Marco Rubio is saying that Wickoff is coming back uh to the US, I guess. I don't know, today or whenever uh with a basically concrete ceasefire proposal between Russia and Ukraine.
Uh, and you might be thinking, "Oh, I've heard this news so many times." But there's actually other headlines also from The Hill, which is a great uh news publication to follow if you're uh if you want to keep track of more like political and geopolitical stuff. Basically, uh even Zalinsky is saying like, "Yeah, like this is looking good." Trump is apparently on a he had a call with European leaders and he's saying, "Yeah, I might meet Putin face to face in the next couple of weeks to basically finalize a ceasefire deal." So, it actually looks like it's uh looking pretty good. Again, no guarantees. Of course, it could all change. Maybe uh Russia's bluffing or whatever. You know, you never know. But again, just key point being is that I was flagging this is like, hey, it looks like we're going to get some development. And that's what happened.
But this is just the first of three catalysts. The second one, what had to do with this tornado cash trial uh with Roman Storm, basically long story short there is that depending on the verdict, that could be positive or negative for crypto. Um to my understanding, it's still kind of up in the air, and this is why I'm like hesitant to say it's like, you know, 100% confirmed or whatever.
Uh but so far, uh Roman Roman has been found guilty on uh basically uh operating an unlicensed money transmitter. Uh and uh you know that might sound scary at first listen but basically what they argued was like look like yes the protocol was decentralized and whatever but he was operating the front end like the actual website that you use to access tornado cache that's separate from the protocol which exists on chain right so yes the protocol on chain is like you know that's kind of like off li that's uh you know that's that's completely fine let's say but the fact that he was operating the front end and like kind of like along with the other co-founder that this is kind of the thing that was the problem and that's why he was found guilty the other charges to my understanding they're still deliberating they're still not Sure. But it looks like this is probably going to be the only guilty charge, which as it relates to crypto, I mean, it's kind of a nothing burger, but I guess it kind of reminds the crypto industry what many of them like what many crypto projects already knew is that you need to have a decentralized front end or operate your front end in a way that doesn't like land you in trouble that like, you know, even though the protocol is decentralized, you also want to have a front end that is like, you know, that you can't be found legally liable if anyone is using that front end, if that makes any sense.
Um, so again, like something that's like, you know, kind of neutral, not necessarily bullish. Uh it just kind of remind I guess it just kind of confirmed what many people in the crypto industry already knew is like you have to have a decentralized front end to be counted as fully decentralized if you're operating a protocol which again is pretty logical.
Um anyways the third thing was of course the launch of GPT5 and then this is where things get really crazy. Uh Sam Altman had been posting earlier in the week about it. uh people from OpenAI had been kind of like hinting like they didn't say explicitly they were just hinting and then all these big tech companies were coming out and like making these big announcements like Google uh and like Anthropic and 11 Labs and I was thinking wait a minute like all it sounds like all these AI companies are making these announcements now because they know that uh GPT5 is coming and they want to get their announcements out first before GPT5 takes up all the mind share all the media attention right uh and lo and behold OpenAI uh is going to be doing a live stream later today at uh at 10 a.m. I think that's Pacific time. You know, I'm not familiar with time zones or whatever, but basically this is like at California time essentially. So, it's going to be way later uh tonight. And what's really interesting, of course, is that there's a lot of accounts already posting confirming whether it's Ralph Pal or like whoever else like these other AI experts and and basically saying like yes, it's going to be GPT5. And I mean, it's even live stream like you can see it's in it's literally in the title here. So, you basically have like confirmation that yeah, they're going to be announcing GPT5 later today.
And you might be thinking, okay, but why does that matter? Long story short, guys, is because as I had been I guess predicting for a while now is that we would get a pullback in August. And I'll I will reiterate for the third time that, you know, I was forecasting a rally in crypto going into late July, early August. Obviously, that didn't materialize, but what we got instead was this August pullback that I had been forecasting as coming. Well, again, I expected it to happen sometime in the middle of August. It came kind of like at the beginning of August. Um, and my prediction there was that that would be probably triggered by something related to tariffs, which it was. Uh, and that this would have to do primarily with stocks. that when stocks would get a pullback, that would be the thing that would cause a pullback in crypto, which is exactly what we saw. And then basically in terms of the recovery, I was predicting that the launch of GPT5 would be the catalyst that would take stocks higher as well as crypto because of course crypto is highly correlated to stocks and these major stock indices. Um, they're basically, you know, tracking essentially the largest tech stocks which are driven by AI. I know it's a little bit like convoluted, but point being is that the launch of GPT5 is likely to take uh tech stocks higher uh to take stocks higher and that's going to take stocks higher in general like stock indices like the S&P 500.
We can actually see here zooming in on the daily we have the Ballinger bands of course my favorite indicator. You can see that yes there was a nasty drop and even when we zoom out to the weekly and this is part of why I'm still like leaning and thinking that like this week could still turn out to be red. Who knows, maybe GPT5 is going to be a nothing burger. Yes, there's other catalysts. if GPT5 turns out to be a nothing burger or there's a whole bunch of other stuff to watch like CPI which will probably come in lower than expected again we'll we'll we'll cross all those bridges when we come to it um you know, but basically it it still looks like from a weekly perspective whether it's stocks or crypto it still looks like this week is going to close in the red which is why I'm kind of cautious here um but that being said if we zoom into the shorter term time frames like everything's looking really good like especially on stocks here it's reclaimed the Ballinger band moving average on the daily looks like it had a a bullish close yesterday on Wednesday so it looks like we're going to get a continuation higher here. And of course, GPT5 would be the catalyst for that potentially.
Um, but of course, because it's going to be announced so late, uh, 10:00 a.m. Oh, sorry, 10:00 a.m., sorry, it's not 10 p.m., 10 a.m., as you guys can see, like I've been running around like a headless chicken. 10 a.m. So, I guess that's going to be later today regardless. Um, but, uh, but anyways, point being is that later today, uh, it looks like we're going to get GBT, and that's probably going to take stocks higher in the next couple of days, and that should, of course, uh, translate to crypto prices going higher.
Um but uh and of course we'll take a closer look at the crypto charts in just a second in terms of short-term time frames. Um but before we do that, I will remind you guys that we do have some awesome deals on the Coin Bureau deals page. Uh we have a buy deal here with up to $60,000 in rewards. Taking advantage of that deal is super simple. Just click this sign up now button uh or in the deals page or check out the link in the description or in the comments. It takes two seconds to sign up. If you can't use Bybit for whatever reason, we do have deals on other exchanges that are available to users who might have uh trouble accessing Binance for whatever reason. These are some of the biggest deals that you can get on exchanges. We work really hard to secure them. When you use these deals, of course, we get a kickback, like a cut of those trading fees. The exchange gets a new user and you get a trading fee discount, so it's a win-winwin for everyone. And if you already have all the exchanges you need, check out our hardware wallet deals, check out our tax uh platform deals, tech, check out our crypto trading bot deals and our merch store and everything. There's a whole bunch of stuff down there. So do check that out using the link again down in the comments or in the description.
Anyways, in terms of shorterterm uh price action, this is where things get tricky. So you guys might remember, I think it was at the start of the week I had been mentioning that we're probably going to see Bitcoin and most major altcoins rally back up to the Ballingerband moving average on the daily because that's just like from a technical perspective. When you see a breakdown below a key level, it's normal to have a retest basically like a rally back up to that level and then at that stage it will either break above and continue higher or it will get rejected and start basically rolling over and crashing.
Um, of course, because I'm kind of cautious again looking at the weekly time frame here. We can actually zoom out. This is a pretty bearish like weekly close like from last week. So, I'm a little bit cautious about this week being a green week. Who knows, maybe it will be. Uh, but uh just looking again on the daily here. It looks like Bitcoin will probably rally up to the Ballinger band moving average on the daily again somewhere around, you know, 116,500 something like that. Uh, and then at that stage, we'll have to see, okay, is it going to break above that level and continue higher or is it going to get rejected? I'm not sure. All I know is that in the short term here in the next 2 days, crypto is probably going to have a little bit of a pop. Whether it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, Suie, Salana, we're going to look at all those charts in just a second, but it looks like we're going to get a little bit of a pop over the next couple of days. What happens after that? Well, I mean, we'll have to play it by ear, but it does look like we're going to get a little bit of a pop.
Even zooming into the shorter term time frames here, we have a we had a little bit of a pop yesterday. Uh, and of course, now we just had again like a retest. Same thing, you know, it works in both directions. is you get above a key level, then you retest that key level. You basically fall back down to it. Uh and then you continue powering higher. And looks like that that's what we're going to see. We had again on the 4 hour, Bitcoin broke out above this Ballinger band moving average on the 4 hour. Now it's retesting that level and it's probably going to continue higher uh up to the Ballinger band moving average on the daily and then at that stage, we'll have to wait and see what comes next.
Moving on to Ethereum. Similar idea. It has already rallied up to the Ballinger band moving average on the daily. Ethereum is actually looking really strong and I'll quickly note it's actually pretty fascinating. Um there's periods of time that I've noticed in the markets where of course you know everyone's super focused on Bitcoin. Everyone's watching Bitcoin to see what the rest of the crypto market will do. You could make the argument that we are in this phase where Ethereum is the main one to watch. And I know that's like a little bit of a controversial take. But uh if that is the case then in a weird way it's like you know pay less attention to what's happening with Bitcoin and look more at what's happening with Ethereum. And if you look at it through that lens of course things become a lot more bullish because Ethereum is looking way better than Bitcoin is on the daily. I think it's looking even better on the 4 hour. Yeah. Like you can see it's basically like rallying up here. You can see there's like a bull flag or triangle pattern. Pick your pick your favorite pattern, but this is a bullish pattern of some kind. It's pretty easy to spot here. Uh and of course that foreshadows a rally uh up to around 4k in the next couple of days. And uh you know that would be pretty crazy especially with this daily Ballinger band squeeze. When you get this squeeze that means we're about to see a big move very similar to the squeeze that we saw back here before that massive rally. So for Ethereum to break out to 4,000 and even continue powering higher uh that wouldn't be surprising at all. And of course that will have some effects on altcoins and bitcoin dominance which again we'll get to that in a second.
But first moving over to Salana looking a little bit weaker here on the daily. I do think it'll rally up to the Ballinger band moving average on the daily at a minimum. So of course up to around 180 and then that stage we'll have to wait and see. Okay, will it get rejected from that level and just continue rolling over maybe falling to the weekly Ballinger band moving average at around 150 uh or will it uh you know kind of invalidate this like bear bearish sorry weekly close and then just continue powering higher? We'll have to wait and see.
Same thing for Sue on the daily looking a little bit weaker. Probably going to rally up to around I don't know 3.75 $3.8 uh assuming we get a pop in the next couple of days which again I do think is likely because of open AI and all these things I just mentioned. Um but after that we'll have to wait and see. Will Sue break above that level and continue powering higher or will it get rejected and then fall to the uh Ballinger band moving average on the weekly which is somewhere around $3.2 give or take. Uh, so again, still too soon to say, but again, if we I guess it really depends is like, you know, how much do you how much credence do you give to these kind of like a bearish weekly closes? I believe statistically speaking, at least in stocks, it's like 65% of the time when you get a bearish uh engulfing close like this on the weekly, uh 65% of the time the next candle is red. So, you know, you're dealing with some slightly more than a 50-50 chance. But of course, there is a chance in there that the week uh turns out to be green. So, we'll have to wait and see.
Anyways, last but not least, I'm I'm sure a lot of you are wondering, some of you have been asking uh about the Bitcoin dominance chart. So, this is where things also get pretty interesting and a little bit nuanced. From a purely technical perspective, I actually do think that there's a there's a high likelihood that the Bitcoin dominance chart will basically rally back up to this resistance level uh somewhere around I don't know 63, sorry, back well, I mean, now it's resistance because we're below it, but it'll rally back up to this key level somewhere around 63 64%. we zoom out to the weekly, you can see that even clearer. And you can see that we have um uh just off the top of my head, I always pick up morning star and evening star. I'm pretty sure this is a morning star pattern because that's like a positive one. Uh but uh but it looks like again like that we would get a rally up again roughly to around the 63ish 64% level which is consistent with this key level that I with this uh long-term trend line rather that I drew here. So that's pretty awesome.
Um but again, it does look like Bitcoin dominance should be popping a little bit more. So, the more that we zoom into shorter term time frames, the more kind of bearish um the uh the Bitcoin dominance starts to look, especially if we're zooming into something like the 4 hour, it really looks like Bitcoin dominance is starting to squeeze to the downside. We could even draw kind of like a a trend line here, and we could say that that Bitcoin dominance is literally in the process here of breaking below this trend line uh and and it's just going to continue rolling over. And of course, that foreshadows a lot more money moving into altcoins.
Um but again, we'll have to wait and see. Of course, a lot of this is just a byproduct of the fact that ETH has been holding up really well. Um, so we'll, you know, we'll have to, I guess, uh, wait with our fingers crossed, but Bitcoin dominance could really go either way. Again, from a purely technical perspective, it does seem more likely that it would bounce and head a little bit higher. Uh, but again, when we zoom in really to these shorter term time frames, it looks like it's going to keep rolling over. And it's actually similar story on the DXY on the US dollar, which is why I continue to be very bullish on altcoins in the coming weeks.
But anyways guys, if you did make it this far and you did find that information helpful, then be sure to smash that like button, subscribe to the channel, ping that notification bell, and I'll see you in the next.