Transcription
One of the most famous senators in the United States, Lindsey Graham, who is one of President Donald Trump's closest associates, could be called a hawk, a staunch hawk. He suddenly passed away, which was shocking because just a day or two ago, there were images of him visiting Ukrainian President Zelensky. There were still images and clips showing him perfectly fine, and then suddenly he died of a heart attack at the age of 71, despite having no symptoms of illness whatsoever. This has sent shockwaves across America. One could say he was the last important hawk in politics to emerge with President Trump. His passing was so sudden that it has shaken the US political scene. The office of Senator Lindsey Graham issued a statement confirming the senator's death on Saturday evening, which was Sunday morning in Bangkok. It happened so quickly that no one expected him to die so suddenly from an acute and severe illness. This passing is not just the loss of a high-ranking US political figure, but the disappearance of a crucial geopolitical compass for the United States. This is especially true as his death occurred just hours after he returned from a secret mission in Kyiv. A secret mission, they say, to the capital of Ukraine to meet with Zelensky, which has led the whole world to question what his final plan was before he passed. Was he sent by President Trump? Graham's final visit to Ukraine last Friday, yes, last Friday. In fact, when he went, he was quite contradictory. On one hand, he met with President Zelensky with a stern demeanor. On the other hand, news reports indicated Graham's reaction to this meeting was a complete failure. He said it was a complete failure. Analysts believe this statement might convey frustration with the limitations of current policies. What is most noteworthy is that Senator Lindsey Graham did not visit merely to show goodwill. He was actively pushing for a new bill to sanction Russia, which Senator Graham himself called a legal toolkit he intentionally created to be given to Donald Trump. This is because he fully supports Donald Trump, believing that if he returns to the White House, he will use this as leverage to end the war in Ukraine, as Trump has declared. Therefore, the fact that this senator, who showed no prior signs of health problems, had to end his life the day after making this significant move has severely shaken the new balance of power in Washington. Let's look at the clip of Senator Lindsey Graham meeting with Zelensky just last Friday. [Clip plays] Signals about patriot licenses, very important. Here, here, right here. Just two days ago, he showed no signs of being ill. But what is certain is the close relationship between him and Trump, which is well-known in the circles. Therefore, the loss of Lindsey Graham is a very big deal for Trump. In Trump's second term, if he were to return to the White House, Lindsey Graham would become one of his most influential foreign policy advisors, especially on issues concerning Iran, Ukraine, and Israel. He would be directly involved, offering advice to Trump and coordinating on various matters, whether it be the wars in Iran, Ukraine, or Israel. He also supported Trump's hardline stance on Iran. This is what confuses people: "Oh, they are praising him to the fullest, cheering him on to the point of wanting to destroy Iran?" Looking at Lindsey Graham, he sees the cooperation between Trump and the Israeli government as the core of the Middle East strategy. He cheers for both Netanyahu of Israel and Trump, believing they must deal with Iran to the fullest. Therefore, it is interesting that Trump must be thinking very hard, and I believe Trump will issue a statement expressing his deepest condolences. And I also believe Trump will truly be saddened because it was a political and personal friendship that was remarkably impressive. Normally, senators are not people who agree with Trump on everything, but he was one of those who could express opinions different from Trump's, and Trump accepted it, which still made Trump trust him. He could criticize some of Trump's policies because he had been around long enough to dare to speak and criticize Trump without Trump showing anger or not showing it. Trump once spoke of Senator Graham as a wonderful friend, one of the people who helped him the most in the Senate. Meanwhile, Lindsey Graham praised Trump as the most influential leader of the Republican Party in the current era. Therefore, the closeness between Trump and Graham is very interesting because their relationship is a clear example of American politics in this era, evolving from fierce rivals and attackers in 2016 to one of the closest allies in the Republican Party. Lindsey Graham played a significant role in supporting Trump, both in Congress and in foreign policy, right up to his final moments, indeed, right up to his final moments. Trump's current situation in the Iran battlefield is facing a mysterious image. Don't say the word "Pen Rose St" to Trump, he will get very angry because he said he "Finished the job," he would end it. But is he actually caught in this trap? Because of the mess he cannot resolve, Trump is accused of stirring up trouble himself after initiating a war without a withdrawal plan. It was easy to start, but how to end it is unknown. So, hope is placed on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) which did not touch the root of the problem at all. It didn't touch the problem at all. Some people question why Trump said he would confront Iran to prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons. Didn't he say that himself? Now, after heavy bombardment, hasn't Iran been nuclearized, rendered incapable of having nuclear weapons? If so, why continue the war when the goal has been achieved? Trump has not been truly questioned about this yet because there are no answers. But the MOU is also the same. The MOU does not address the stated objectives at all. Even if it did, it has now been torn up. Trump himself just announced that even though the MOU exists, the 60-day ceasefire has ended. It hasn't even been two or three weeks, and it's over. So, as the smoke from the latest airstrikes clears, what remains is not victory, but a strategic dead end, getting more lost the further one goes. The trap is in an endless spiral. While America hopes for military victory, Iran sees a strategic treasure in the obstacles. They see it more concretely. Iran has changed the control of the Strait of Hormuz, its most powerful bargaining chip, considered the most important victory in the war for the Iranian people. Iran believes it doesn't need to win militarily because it cannot win; America's weapons are far superior. Therefore, it wins strategically in terms of geography. The Strait of Hormuz, pressing this button, controlling this area, makes America struggle. So, America tries to pressure Iran to stop controlling the Strait of Hormuz. The more America pressures Iran on this issue, the more Iran knows this is America's most critical weakness. Therefore, Iran is trying to turn the world's shipping lanes into an automatic cash register, an ATM, charging tolls and controlling shipping routes to declare its dominance as the true owner of the area. This is not just provocation anymore; it is creating a source of income and a guarantee of survival for the regime that the United States is trying to force to collapse. So, no matter how much money America has, even if it's a billionaire, money cannot buy everything. Money cannot always buy leadership. This truth is proven in this war. The Trump administration was full of billionaires and multi-billionaires, and they fell into the trap of thinking that everything has a price, and if you have money, you can buy it all. Everyone can be persuaded by money. Believe it or not, if money comes, you believe it. But this belief is becoming a very dangerous blind spot for Trump. America tried to use waivers worth billions of dollars as bait to make Iran submit, to temporarily lift the boycott, to sell oil. They thought Iran would surrender completely. But the result was a complete failure. It's like what happened in Ukraine, the Russia-Ukraine war. Because Trump's commercial mindset, thinking that money would override nationalism or strategic goals, is starting to look like a failure, outdated, and too naive in the real world. Because Iran, driven by emotion, resentment, the spirit of its leaders, and the spirit of the martyrs, has united more than Trump ever thought. The opposition to the Iranian government likely still exists, but those who feel oppressed, humiliated, and insulted by America are more united. Therefore, the options for Trump are only pain and more pain. Around 10 PM, 9 PM something, President Trump dropped a new bomb on the whole world, saying America will take control of the Strait of Hormuz and charge a 20% toll on the value of goods passing through this strait. This is because America will become the guardian angel of the Strait of Hormuz, but there will be costs, charging 20%, which is a huge amount. At the same time, he announced that America will re-impose a blockade on Iran in that area again. This means Iranian ships will not be able to enter or leave that area, and countries trading with Iran cannot go there. The intention is to blockade Iran economically until it cannot survive. At the same time, there was heavy bombardment for the third consecutive night, which means pressure on both military and economic fronts. And if they seize the Strait of Hormuz, it means Iran will not be able to control the geography and military situation in that area. The reaction from Iran, of course, will be strong and will likely lead to a new, shocking confrontation. Peace has become a battlefield, a proxy war. And it will lead to a turbulent global economy because crude oil prices immediately jumped by almost 10% in one day. A 10% jump in one day hasn't been seen in 4-5 or 6 years. The last time crude oil prices jumped so shockingly was in 2020, but even during the war at that time, the fluctuations in oil prices were not as immediate and fierce as yesterday. Because Trump has essentially thrown a bomb at the Strait of Hormuz, after destroying it, and is now announcing that he will take control of it. But Trump's statement about charging a toll contradicts what America has always said about Iran: that Iran must not have the opportunity or right to charge tolls because it is an international waterway. No strait in the world can charge tolls. But why, all of a sudden, is President Trump saying he will charge a 20% toll? It sounds unclear why America is doing this. Trump said in a media interview, "I want to be reimbursed because we are protecting a very rich portion of the world. We are spending money, and so what we have done is we are going to be reimbursed for protection." So, we are protecting that area, and we must be compensated. This statement is made like a businessman: "We have, we have to spend money. When we spend money, we need to collect expenses." This statement has truly caused global turmoil. Let's listen to some parts where Trump tells reporters. This is America's new stance, which the Middle East must be confused about, because most of the ships are carrying oil and gas from the Middle East to the Asian market. Which company, which ship owner, which cargo is willing to pay 20%? And it's not guaranteed to be safe either, because will Iran agree? Even if you secretly pay 20% to America, Iran can still shoot at you. Because Trump said to travel on routes controlled by America, which means staying close to the coast of Oman. But Iran says that route is near Iran's coast. Because Iran wants to know the details of each voyage, each shipment, what cargo, from where to where, who owns the ship, and to turn on the transponder, the device that sends signals, called AIS (Automatic Identification System), which is a system for automatic identification. But many ships, at least 26 yesterday, turned it off. They went dark, not turning it on, to evade. This is an attempt to manage risk in a situation where it's unclear who is in control of the game here. There are too many tough guys controlling the intersection. Listen to Trump emphasize, "I must collect a toll because I am providing protection." In simple terms, it's becoming protection money. Has this war transformed into a protection racket war? There will be an attempt to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Let's see if it will be successful. It is said to be reduced gradually, from 100% reliance to 40-45% by 2027, next year, and 2028, to reduce it so that new routes can be used up to 75%. But changing transportation routes requires enormous budgets. New investments must be made, with new structural risks, because building new oil pipelines is easier than protecting them from attacks. But wow, how much investment is needed? So, they must try to find a solution, whether the investment is worthwhile in the long run. But at the same time, there is a problem that exacerbates it: America's strategic petroleum reserves. During the war, America released a lot from its strategic petroleum reserves to prevent global oil prices from skyrocketing, but it wasn't very successful. But today, the SPR, or Strategic Petroleum Reserve, has been significantly depleted. This reserve is America's tool for controlling global oil prices. The amount of oil reserves has fallen to its lowest level, the lowest since 1983. Wow, meaning that throughout the period since 1983, there has never been a time when oil reserves were this low. This is not a joke, because if we go back to 1983, that was 43 years ago. What does this mean? It means that America's strategic oil reserve level today is lower than the lowest in 43 years. If a crisis occurs, there will be no oil reserves. This makes the US government incapable of mitigating future price shocks. Meanwhile, the market is facing a liquidity crunch. Investors and hedge funds have started to withdraw from the market after being disrupted by the volatility of the war, losing their investment rhythm. They are selling stocks, investment funds, bonds, and holding onto cash. When they hold cash and don't invest, everything becomes stagnant. The market dislikes stagnation. The market dislikes people withdrawing to regroup. Therefore, this has become a problem for Wall Street. Information from intelligence agencies indicates that investors are choosing to wait and see from the sidelines, making transactions at desired prices more difficult. This means no one is willing to take risks; safety first is better. The adjustment of global supply chains has also begun. The bargaining power of new buyers and producers has become an issue. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a reorganization of supply chains. The groups that are accelerating are benefiting. America is among the groups that extract oil from shale in Kazakhstan. Brazil and Venezuela are benefiting because they have oil and are stepping in to fill the gap of oil missing from the market. America, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Venezuela are benefiting from exporting oil, with American exports reaching new record highs this year. Meanwhile, there is also a change in consumer behavior. Asian countries are turning to oil sources in Latin America and West Africa, reducing the risk of relying on the Middle East. There's no escaping it; everyone has to survive first. China's stance is interesting because China is a major buyer. As the largest oil importer, China has shown no urgency. China says it's taking it easy, slowing down imports, not rushing to stockpile at excessively high prices, because China might think prices will fall. This reflects the bargaining power of major buyers in a turbulent market. They don't need to be impatient; they are major buyers and will wait for the right moment. Meanwhile, Iran has over 34 million barrels of oil outside the US blockade. This means Iran has already exported it. Even if America imposes a new blockade, it won't be in time. At least 34 million barrels means this oil has passed the point where America can intercept it, making this round of economic sanctions potentially unable to exert the intended pressure on Iran.