Transcription
I look at it this way today, for Perfect World War 3, meaning a full-scale World War 3. [Music] If it happens, it will occur in 3 major theaters. The first is a theater at the regional level in Europe, which is Russia fighting against NATO. The second theater is the Middle East, which today we already see, trading attacks back and forth with each side having its own reasons. The third theater is the scariest: China. Today, China is showing a clear reaction to this war. China is accelerating production of drones, 1 million units since 2023, because China thinks that in a major war, China will find it very difficult to avoid the United States according to the Indo-Pacific strategy, especially at the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. China seizes Taiwan and then destroys the Philippines. North Korea fights South Korea and then fights Japan. There will be many battles. In 1 war, there might be 20 battles. We already see it: it could be Russia vs. Poland, Russia vs. Germany, Russia vs. England, or taking on France, or Russia vs. Finland. And in the South China Sea, oh my, I think it will be heavily tangled. If the United States decides to open a war with China, it will be a war tens of times bigger than Vietnam because China is no ordinary country at this hour.
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I look at it [breathing sound] like this today. There will be 2 scenarios arising. It is called Perfect World War 3, meaning a full-scale World War 3. I analyze this from many things happening simultaneously. The first scenario is if the United States, or Israel, or NATO cannot hold out until the US midterm elections, which affect the government's decision-making because it requires votes in Congress, both the Senate and the House. It might explode before that. The second scenario is trying to hold out until after the US midterm elections conclude, Donald Trump wins and can control the votes in both the House and the Senate. Therefore, these 2 scenarios that I mention cannot avoid World War 3, but whether it will happen before the midterm elections or after the midterm elections, we must follow the situation minute by minute because if it happens, it will occur in 3 major theaters.
The first is a theater at the regional level in Europe, which is Russia fighting against NATO, according to Putin's team and Putin's opposition who guarantee that they must go out of the country, not just fighting in Ukraine's 4 provinces and Crimea, but must go in to destroy the bases that produce weapons supporting Ukraine because Russia, if continuing like this, will lose. So we wait and see. The first theater is Russia vs. NATO. The second theater is the Middle East, which today we already see, talking while negotiating, trading attacks back and forth with each side having its own reasons. So if it happens this time, I believe it will be big. That is, the Middle East including the great powers, India too. The area is the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It will be version 3 of the clash, but this version will be the decisive one because it will enter what is called Perfect World War T. The third theater is the scariest, because big brother China, today is showing what is called a clear reaction to this war.
First of all, few people know that China is accelerating production of drones, 1 million units since 2023, with orders to complete by 2027, because China thinks that in a major war, China will find it very difficult to avoid the United States according to the Indo-Pacific strategy, especially at the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. This will pair up North Korea... North Korea fights South Korea and then fights Japan. China seizes Taiwan according to the Taiwan annexation plan, and this is a national plan, and then destroys the Philippines including allies. China's allies are Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam. The US allies are the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, which clearly show themselves. As for the decisive battle, it is not in the South China Sea. The decisive battle, if the theater in the Indo-Pacific region occurs, is the Strait of Malacca, which is Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and my Thailand. They will have to be in this theater unavoidably.
Therefore, the fact that Xi Jinping invited Thaksin, invited Hun Sen to talk in Beijing, and will invite our Prime Minister Srettha to talk, I believe they are talking about adjusting attitudes. Simply put, what is the perspective on what to do if the Indo-Pacific strategy actually happens? This will be a big deal for the whole world, and I think that World War 3, if it clashes, whether it happens before the US midterm elections or after, there will be many battles. In 1 war, there might be 20 battles. We already see it: it could be Russia vs. Poland, Russia vs. Germany, Russia vs. England, right? Or taking on France, or Russia vs. Finland. Ah, Iran might fight Israel, the US military in the region, including maybe Bahrain, Kuwait, where Iran keeps firing missiles. Right? So there may have to be many battles. In the South China Sea, oh my, I think it will be heavily tangled because there are 10 countries involved in the strategy and in this theater. North Korea, South Korea, Philippines, China, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia. I expect that from now on we must watch. I look at the overall picture right now, the situation is developing continuously. And China itself is showing its big brother role fully now. And I see it this way today.
The United States stopped fighting party. The main reasons are: 1, oil prices in the US. Although the US is a major oil producer, whether oil or gas, the US is not a major refined oil producer and must rely on imports from the Middle East. Therefore, the US stopping is to adjust plans, to add weapons, to suppress inflation because inflation affects the cost of living, it affects bond yields. This is what is likely from now on. That is, the Thai-Cambodia battle might also be one character that China will need to be able to make us and Cambodia stop fighting each other to prepare for the big war, which is World War 3.
>> What makes Mr. Rangsri analyze that the war must happen within the next 5 months? Fast or slow from the election, this is another point. But what is the motivation that will cause the war to happen in the near future?
>> It comes from the fact that the US used to be a single superpower, but today Russia and China have clearly declared that the world will no longer have a single superpower. The world must become a multipolar world, meaning multiple poles of power, which is possible. In the future, there may be power poles: the US pole, the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran pole, another we must consider is the NATO pole, which is possible because NATO itself has a plan to stand on its own feet, rely on its own economy within its continent, in the EU, develop its own military, which they planned for 2030. From now, another 3 years. This is my reason why today, when there are many poles, sharing benefits is not like when the US ate alone for 80 years past. So in the end, there must be a single pole superpower, but at this time there are 2 clear poles. Europe might become the 3rd pole, whether it will succeed or not, we must follow. Therefore, that's why they can't talk it out.
>> But the point that will open the war, you see...
>> The compressive force or what will force the decision for war, what will it be? Where will it open? What will be the trigger that suddenly gets up and starts a major war?
>> The economic squeeze. As I said today, the world economy has entered a recession and has already entered stagflation. It cannot continue like this, really, because even though they open the hormone channel, analysts worldwide say oil will never drop more than this, staying at 70-80. And another thing: today, the latest news is that the US agreed to pay the seized Iranian money, 6 billion dollars. From 24 billion, they agreed to pay 6 billion, that is 1 quarter. The reason, I see it as the US buying time. If the US had good faith, the 24 billion in Qatar, why couldn't they return it all at once, right? Because it is Iran's money and now the money is in Qatar, but returning it like this, I believe it is buying time. Because today the US itself must go back to manage internally, both inflation, the energy crisis, and the midterm elections. But the US, I believe, will never give up or withdraw from the Middle East including the Indo-Pacific. And don't forget, there are 2 more years. If the election finishes smoothly, in these 2 years anything can happen.
>> Yes, but starting a war inevitably causes widespread damage. Who will benefit if this world war occurs? What will America gain?
>> I ask, World War 1 and World War 2 were both meaningless, but why did they happen? People, when they have power, no one wants to let go of power. You already see, even the Prime Minister of Thailand, a small country's Prime Minister. Do you think anyone willingly steps down unless they are pressured or the situation forces them? I only ask this.
>> Actually...
>> Should have served 2 terms, but most of them, you see, are all driven out. Driven out by mobs or driven out by coalition partners themselves. And don't forget, the matter of the world's superpowers, the benefits are immense. Right? And people with power at the level of being a power pole of the world, how high do you think their self-confidence is? Therefore, it can happen anytime. But what I analyze is that I look at the development of events. It is not calming down. Does it seem possible that Russia fights Ukraine for 5 years, then suddenly calms down temporarily when it opens up in the Middle East? Then when the Middle East war calms down, movements in Europe happen immediately, right? They came and bombed each other.
>> In the South China Sea, what I said, suddenly South Korea and Japan will announce military cooperation to pressure China. Today, China summons both Cambodia and Thailand to visit Beijing because China knows that China must have as many allies as possible. For what? To limit the US's ways to set up military bases to attack China as much as possible if war actually happens. And I believe that in the end, China will definitely enter the Strait of Malacca after finishing managing its northern area. Because going to meet Kim Jong Un, I am sure today that they let Kim Jong Un be responsible for South Korea and Japan.
>> Yes, and before this, General Xi always mentioned that if there is a clash or a war, there must be military indicators, abnormal movements that we can use to [clears throat] analyze that a major war will happen. What indicators are there this time in each point? Both in the Middle East, in Asia at Malacca, and in the European area in Ukraine?
>> Today, simply, why did Indonesia suddenly allow the US to use its airspace? Why does Indonesia, with its supposedly strong economy, now have problems? Every country right now, I'll tell you, will be squeezed around the same time. Why did Hun Sen have to travel to Beijing with Thaksin? Because China sees that China is finding a way to bring Hun Sen down and elevate Thaksin and the Crown Prince, because they are preparing for this war for sure. I believe China does not trust Hun Sen. And what is strange is that China summoned Hun Manet next month, around the same time as Prime Minister Srettha. Why not let Hun Manet go together with his father? They talk separately. I tell you.
>> Yes.
>> This is abnormal movement from China, because normally China does not interfere with small countries. This level, going to talk in Beijing, meeting the President. See, Xi Jinping. Because I believe China already knows that sooner or later, what I said, Scenario 1 is happening before the US midterm elections, and Scenario 2 is happening after the US midterm elections. Therefore, China needs to gather as many allies as possible to cut off supply bases, cut off bases that will be set up to attack China in the South China Sea. Thailand ourselves must now depend on the leader, what will we do? Will we allow the US to refuel planes at Krabi? Or will we allow the US to refuel ships at Map Ta Phut, Rayong? That is a risk. I believe China, summoning Prime Minister Srettha, will talk about this directly, just like Xi Jinping flew to meet Kim Jong Un.
>> Mr. Rangsri, what do you think China wants from Thailand if war happens?
>> I believe China wants Thailand to refuse aid to the United States, whether it is refueling planes or refueling ships, or sending supplies, or providing fresh water, or allowing troops to rest. Because China does not need to use us as a base, because their missiles can reach. But the US does. The US comes from far away. The US needs bases to support its forces, like they did in Vietnam. But this time, if the US decides to open a war with China, it will be a war tens of times bigger than Vietnam because China is no ordinary country at this hour. Therefore, countries along the stretch, from the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand into the South China Sea, will definitely be involved. Now it depends on how you set your country's strategy, how you will create balance. Because today, don't forget that we ourselves signed the Indo-Pacific Treaty already in 1619? The Indo-Pacific Command is in Guam, Hawaii. The forward command is in Japan. We cannot escape now. We can already see the events.
>> Yes.
>> Today, each side is preparing, each side is gathering its own allies. If you look at the world through rose-colored glasses, then okay, nothing, it will end. But when I analyze the situation as a worst-case scenario, I will analyze the worst situation. But if you...
>> Yes.
>> ...you analyze the good situation, you take only the good, you don't need the best. But if you analyze the worst-case scenario, you must take the scenario that is the worst, what will happen.
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