Transcription
Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist.
Now, as you can see, I'm still on vacation. Next week, I'll be back in the office. But we have a major breakout in Bitcoin that looks to be underway. That's great for altcoins as well, which are surging up. I just looked at Chain Link recently. It was pushing up beautifully today and looks like it has legs to run.
So, we're going to go into this, folks. I'm going to show you exactly why in the last few videos I was bullish on crypto and on Bitcoin. It was a beautiful inverse head and shoulders. Well, I'll show you how I calculate the target, which is around 71,000 as an upside move on Bitcoin where it's going to hit major resistance. We're going to go into all of it today, inclusive of Ethereum, Salana, um, Hyperliquid. We'll look at we'll look at XRP, maybe a couple others as well. But suffice it to say, even though midterm, I'm still a little bearish on Bitcoin and crypto. Near-term, I remain bullish as long as the 58,000 low pivot holds up. And right now, that's the right angle to be. And I think a lot of people are missing the boat here. This is going to be a great altcoin move. Probably 30 to 50% upside in altcoins. Bitcoin again, even just getting back to 71,000. Granted, that's a good move. If it can break through there, it's even got more upside.
All right, into the charts we go, guys. No more time to delay. Bitcoin today, great pop on the back of the CPI data. And again, I look at Bitcoin as a coiled spring right now. So much bearishness in the comments on YouTube. Anytime I do anything that talks about upside on Bitcoin or crypto, the comments are, "Oh, it's going to zero." I love seeing that. And I love seeing that because it tells you that people are overly bearish. And it's like a pendulum swinging, right? It swings one way. When it's overly bearish, it's got to swing back the other way. Then if it gets overly bullish, it's got to come back into that point where it's finally trying to always find that middle kind of sanctuary zone. But the beautiful thing about it is too much bearishness, get bullish. Too much bullishness, get bearish. Just the way charts work.
All right, so back into the chart here. You can see great move up today, taking out short-term these highs here. But what I loved and what I showed you guys recently is you have this move down, this move up, then this move down, and this move up, and then this move down. And look, what kind of pattern is that? That is an inverse head and shoulders pattern. That is a bullish pattern in technical analysis. You even have a tool in here to draw it in. If we take a look here, let me find it. There it is right there to draw it in. And I can do it right now. So, we do a down move. That's your left shoulder. You do down to the lowest point of the head. That's your head up to the corner of the right shoulder here down here and then up there. And you can see again shoulder. Here's left shoulder, head and right shoulder. Now the key is the neckline. The neckline to draw the neckline in. You essentially take your essentially what I call the armpit to the armpit right there and you extend that out. And if you can break and have a daily close above this, it is a breakout of the head and shoulders or the pattern triggers. For my safety, I like to see confirmation, which is a second higher close than the one breakout candle. It just gives me more credence that it's actually in play.
Now, when we go into calculations, how do we calculate our target on an inverse head and shoulders or any really really it works on a head and shoulders as well. What we do here, folks, is we do our measurement tool. Get your price range tool here and you go to your lowest point of the head and you take that and shoot it vertically up to the neckline. That distance should be your target price from the breakout point. So you put it right at the trend line right there and that distance takes us to about 71,500. So that is your target. Now the beautiful thing about this is I always look for confluence, right? So again, what are the confluences of that potential target? And the answer is you have to look at the chart, right? So let's go back to the chart and take a look. And what we do is when we zoom out on this, we have a high pivot and a high pivot here, right? So those would be something that I would look for. And I'd also look for this high right in here. And so what we can do here is we can take this and drag it down. And we see that these two highs connected give us a move up here. And again, you can see if it were to go vertically in one day, well, it would go above that target. But charts don't work like that. I don't think any of us expect Bitcoin to surge up this much in one single day. So more than likely, what's going to happen? It's going to push up, then pull back a little bit, then push up, then pull back a little bit, push up, then pull back. And maybe if we extend this out somewhere here out a little bit, it's going to come into that level. Right? So just meandering up gets us to that point. And then lastly, what we can also do is we can say, okay, well, what we can also say is if this part level gets hit, do we then ultimately have a chance at a bigger breakout? I would say there's always a chance of that. But what we know about technical analysis, and I'm revealing some incredible, like if you bought the winning trader series on our 40% off sale, you're going to get this information even more in depth, and you it'll be drilled into your head x amount of times, which is awesome with examples, etc. But the point here is is that what we know about trend lines and again this is all probability based is that it takes usually three hits you get a pullback. So one this is number one right right up here number two. This would be number three. So let's just say we go like this and then we come in here and we get to our target price 71,500. What we should end up seeing here let me get rid of that is that we get a pullback off of that off of that level. Let me extend this out so I can really get you guys in the groove here. So, we extend that out and essentially what we should get is a significant pullback, right? So, we go in here and we should pull back. Potentially, we could even retrace back to this level here, the former neckline. At that point, if we go up again, it would be the fourth hit. So, this would be the third hit, right? One, two, three. Very unlikely. Probability does not favor a breakout in that scenario. It favors a pullback. If we get a pullback and attack that line again, now it's it's it's basically favoring a breakout. So the fourth or beyond hit, each subsequent hit after four. Four is about 50/50 to maybe 55 45 favoring a breakout. Beyond that, every hit after of a trend line, it ups by about 5 to 10% likelihood. So in other words, fourth, number five would be let's say 65% chance. Sixth hit would be 75% and on and on and on. Inevitably, if you hit it enough, you're going to break out. But these are these are fascinating things. But either way, folks, short-term, this is a great pattern. I love the bearishness out there on Bitcoin right now. It tells me you're due for a short squeeze. I'm hearing more and more rumors about pushing for the Clarity Act. And again, you could argue whether or not the Clarity Act will actually have an impact. Frankly, I couldn't care. All I care is that it does it add excitement to crypto. And if it does, well, then it's bullish for my swing trade longs, right, in smart money crypto with members that see my literally they see my portfolio um with my coins, my exact entry, my P&L up and down, they get it all and you can join at any time in smartmoney crypto at verifiedinvesting.com. But again, suffice it to say, this is a great move. Let's see where we close. We want to see a close above this trend line. If it closes below, by the way, then it's technically not a break of the head and shoulders inverse head and shoulders pattern. You got to close above. Then we up just just to be higher probability. We want to see confirmation and it should head up to about 71,000 to 71,500.
Now let's look at ETH. ETH here, folks. Take a look. Same pattern. Look at that. Beautiful shoulder head shoulder breakout right there. You're getting the breakout right here, folks. That is a great move on ETH. And again, I'd be bullish. Short-term resistance is going to come in here. But where is the measured move? Let's do a quick measured move on this. Drag that trend uh list right up or that measurement. This would tell us it's around 2130, maybe 2150 somewhere in that vicinity. That would be your upside target on that.
If we go to Salana and we take a look at Salana here, Salana hasn't taken out the recent highs, but this was a stronger one and you can see it already had a major breakout, right? So, while on Bitcoin, this connector to this connector, we we aren't up there yet, right? But in this case on Salana, it's already gone there. And I actually think that that tells us that eventually it's going higher. It could obviously retrace to the scene of the crime. But either either way, good move up, bullish inside bar. Now we want to see that bigger move up there.
XRP here as well, folks. Again, breakout. And this was a major breakout. Remember what I said to you, how many hits. The more hits you hit, the more likely you break out. 1 2 3 4. So here's where it was 50/50. Here was 65 or 65 to 60% odds favoring breakout. It didn't break out. Here's 75 and then finally when it got up basically to 85% it broke out. Now it's consolidated above the breakout and now it should break higher. And one other thing to note on XRP is that the longer the consolidation, the bigger the move on the breakout or breakdown. So you can have breakdowns on on charts like on wedge patterns as well. And it's ultimately it just means that the longer you consolidate and get squeezed the bigger the power behind the move usually is. So I'd expect this honestly I could see this thing back to a buck 50 which would be an incredible that would be a 50% move from the lows on XRP.
Looking at Hyperlid real quick here guys just to see a couple ones here. Hyperlid and let's go to the I don't want to go to the Coinbase chart because there's not enough data there to really analyze the chart. Here we go. So, coin uh Hyperliquid actually broke down. Look at that breakdown right there. Now, again, as long as it stays below this line, this is now a bearish chart. The bears have taken over. Okay, so maybe it goes back up, but this is now resistance. And again, this would be your downside target. So, it's interesting how some of these other coins are waking up while Hyperlid is breaking down. Many maybe money rotation is coming into play there as well.
I did show you chain link. People say, "Oh, we don't care about chain." If it's a great chart, it's a great chart. Look at this. Here's a short-term breakout consolidation. Look at these highs. Three highs here matched with these three and then break out there. Resistance will be around 850. If it breaks through 850, should go to 910 right there on that chart. And we could go on and on folks, but the point is is that crypto is starting to wake up in my humble opinion. And I think there's again um Bitcoin at least 715 or so I think in the near term and all coins have 30 to 50% upside in them potentially. Potentially. Now again, can these patterns fail? Absolutely. But the beautiful thing about it is we have specific levels to watch, right? So if we go back and we look at the chart on Bitcoin, let me bring that back up. Where would Bitcoin, where would all of this be failed? Right here. If we take out the low of the head, it's over. It's over. Party's over and down we go to 50,000. But again, this is good. This is a good move today. CPI data coming in much better than expected. Granted, do I really believe the CPI data? No. But doesn't matter. If the markets believe it, that's all that matters.
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All right, have a great rest of your day.