Transcription
Starting his trading journey in 2009, to now having global trading floors and being one of the most prominent educators in the world, because I've seen it from a professional level. I honestly steer away from fundamentals. It's too much of a tug-of-war now.
Look, 10 years ago, interest rates went up for the US, US dollar will get stronger. It's not the case now. We've seen it have a negative impact. We've seen it hanging around for a couple of days and show no direction or no agreement. So, I think it's too inconsistent.
Introducing James Benley. In this episode, we speak about the realities of being an up-and-coming trader and the patterns and mistakes he sees in the thousands of struggling traders that he's helped. I have friends that have run prop firms. I know the industry. I know where they source their liquidity from. I see the numbers. There's a 0.04% pass rate to phase one. Why do you think that is? Um, too many people are too focused on taking the perfect trade, which limits the amount of trades they take. You're going to waste way too much time trying to find that perfect setup. If you have a system that works and you're using certain criteria and it's going to be quite simple to work out that strategy works. I've seen it with my own eyes. It's winning eight times out of 10. I now have the belief, the confidence to not worry about the money in my account. I know how to risk manage. I can go ahead and start taking trades.
I think a lot of people watching, they would understand your principles of keep it simple and technicals that are just trend and zones and so forth. I think people can get very familiar with this and on board with it, but they won't have the same results as you or people that you've worked with. What advice could you give for someone that's trying to apply similar simpler strategies? What psychological approaches would be beneficial if someone's a new trader?
Ladies and gents, welcome back to another episode. I'm joined by a man who's recently from the UK moved to Dubai and we've connected and I realized he's doing big things out in Dubai, stepping stone towards GCC. So James, thank you very much for joining. Uh, you're a man that I want to say is a little bit more in the shadows uh in terms of the social media sphere, but now that I've got to see your presence, uh, you're a very dominant figure, especially in the UK. You've done you've done huge things and I'm sure you've gone to do even bigger things here. Uh, so before we kick off, I want to talk strategy, psychology, uh, people growing in their career, your own journey. Uh, but I want to start off with a little bit about who you are, your your background because it is a more unique one compared to what others we've had on the show.
Sure. Yeah. So I uh, I started in 2009. Uh, I left school at 16 and went straight to IAP which now they weren't back then. They're now the world's leading trading intermediary. Um, back then it was very much kind of who you knew to get in someone like that rather than what you knew. So I'd avoided the university route. Um, which is funny because now we run degree programs to get people into those type of institutions. Um, yeah. So I was done four and a half, nearly five years there as a junior trader. Um, you bounce through different desks. So it's not just FX as a product. They facilitate trades on lending, on loans, on fixed income, short-term interest rates. A lot of hedging, a lot of debt products. So you learn about different sides of the industry, which a lot of people now think traders in the banks only trade FX, but a lot of the FX side is actually lending money. It's not speculating and trading as we do. Yeah. And then moved on. Loved it there. Loved my time there. At one point there was 600 traders on the floor. So it was Yeah.
Can you describe to me a little bit more what an intermediary is compared to what people are you know prop firms and and hedge funds. What is an intermediary?
So trading intermediary facilitates trades on behalf of institutions, banks, hedge funds. So if one bank was needed, I don't know, was in the market for $100 million and another bank had it. You'd be the bro, the money broker or the intermediary that would buy here, sell here. What the banks would do and their traders would do, but they'd buy it elsewhere again to raise the value of euro to then sell it at a higher price and that's how the price fluctuates and you're the middleman finding the two entities to bring them together. So these organizations, they're not there for profit in the sense of they're speculating their own trades. They're more making margin on facilitating trades. Yeah, definitely. And if if you take a pinch in between and also if one bank lends money to another bank and one side has a high interest rate or one was 2% one was 1% that would cancel each other out. One bank would owe the following back 1% you might take a bit of the monetary value within that percentage.
Okay. And so at that point you weren't physically hands-on trading yourself I imagine. How did you pivot towards okay let me get into the markets myself?
Yeah, I was always someone that asked a million and one questions really, but there's policies as a young boy. You they're not going to put you on a dealing desk. You're not going to be in control of any risk. And I made really good friends with a couple of seniors there that they left. They set up their own fund. They raised nine figures. And as time grew, 2014 roughly, that's when I started dealing. And that was when FX was the main product. Okay. FX back then was never the beast it is now. It really wasn't. European debt was a huge product back then. Um, I mean FX now is huge, right?
How did you find yourself pivoting between markets? I guess now you're FX and commodities. Uh, what was your base in terms of market understanding or strategy? I I imagine technicals or a wild mix.
Um, one thing that we really preach now is keeping it simple. And I believe that was because the guys that I was working with and learning from were seniors. These guys back then were come back to they're dinosaurs. They're not technical. They don't have all these algorithms or try and over complicate the thing. One of their main things is to keep it super simple. And that's stuck with me all the way. So I very rarely trade reversals. Um, arguably, yes, you can get the highest risk and the highest return catching a turn. It's super simple momentum based. So the way that I personally break it down is we look at seasonal performance. Okay? So we have technology now that calculates a true path over the last 20 years to like a weighted average. Is this market in line with how it should perform seasonally? So that gives you a wide variety of options for the month. And the reason we we bring in and trade commodities is because markets like coffee, soybean, cocoa, wheat, they're not products you trade 12 months of a year, but they have certain peaks and troughs, if we call them, three or four. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Um, one of the big ones now is natural gas. So for for we're in April, April, May, natural gas is usually its strongest two periods. Okay. Pound and Aussie as well and they should continue. So when you get an understanding of a market that's showing its true path, so it's in line with a seasonal performance uh and if you're looking at daily direction and time from agreement, it's all working its way forward, then uh I'll be on a 1-hour time frame looking for momentum. Mhm.
Now myself as a trader, I like to have my hands in just a few things, specifically Euro USD and GBP USD. The reason I've chosen that path is because I find there's a sufficient amount of opportunity in just a handful of things and there's enough volatility in there for me to get a good risk-reward. And plus, because I'm focused on just one or two things, uh, I'm able to squeeze out a bit more mastery and therefore a higher risk-reward. Uh, when you're trading many things and certain things are seasonal and and it's changing month to month, do you feel like your eyes all over the place and and how do you keep on top of things as opposed to just focusing on focusing on the gold, let's say?
That's a good question. And in fact, we I get asked that question a lot. Why don't I just master one or two pairs and become become a beast at it. Problem is depending on your level of experience. So for someone that's in their first year or two, it's going to be hard for them to sit on their hands. If Euro dollar starts ranging, sitting sideways, lack of volume, momentum, and that's where bad habits come in. They force a trade. If you're at your level or an experienced level, you know when to sit on your hands and take a step back. So as a new trader, we tell them to avoid doing that and keep your options open. Um, so having a range of seasonal products, we probably look at 150 a month in total. Wow. And whittle it down to eight or nine per month that are on track. And then for that month specifically, you'd use those pairs and you'd be able to keep in control of eight or nine pairs a month to know when to put interesting.
So that step one is probably the most crucial one because if you don't correctly select the right eight, you might then spend the rest of the month on the wrong thing. What is your selection process to go from 150 things and also not consuming 20 hours per pair and trying to figure out how do you select efficiently to bring it down from 100 to to a handful?
That's the seasonal basis. So if it's in line with a true path. So we take a 20-year average price and a weighted average. So is it still respecting today what it was doing 20 years ago and that will whittle down 150 to show you which markets are currently in line. So if we're now in April it'll be looking at January, February, March. Has it stuck to that seasonal path?
Ju just for my visual understanding is this kind of a 20-year indicator like a line to show average price over 20 years and and let's say price is approaching that line. Is that the opportunity or when price is very far away from that line?
Uh, in and around it, 'cause like we can look at average dates to look at typical turning points, but we always give ourselves a three-day buffer either side. So it's in and around the the average price and uh, with this decision-making, are you bringing in any other tendencies or any other fundamental factors or is it just simply is this in line with where it should be?
Yeah, I mean that's that's step one to work out okay, what pairs are of interest this month. Mhm. Personally, because I've seen it from a professional level and I've seen them how large the market's got, how volatile the market's got, how busy the market's got, I honestly steer away from fundamentals. Interesting. Okay. The market 15 years ago and a lot of FX desks used to trade fundamentals and would react to fundamentals. It's too much of a tug-of-war now. There's there's no bias of individual direction. You look 10 years ago, interest rates went up for the US, US dollar will get stronger. It's not the case now. We've seen it have a negative impact. We've seen it ping around for a couple of days and show no direction or no agreement. So, I think it's too inconsistent if I'm honest.
From my perspective as a only retail trader, my perception of the big institutions is just through movies and books and it is that they are very fundamentally driven. They're very higher time frame driven. Um, I guess this is maybe an outdated view. What would you say is now the recent reality of institutional trading?
Um, I mean, institutional trading and retail trading are two two different ball games. There's no synergy at all in my eyes. Okay. And I speak about this quite often like we get asked a lot of questions like I've been trading this strategy at an institutional level. It's not a fact, buzzword. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's there to sell stuff pretty much. And traders in banks, as I briefly mentioned earlier, a lot of the FX desks are lending money and the only kind of correlation I can see is that if a bank raised a bank brought a load of pound and made pound stronger and pulled off an amazing successful deal at a certain point, they would peg that price. These guys are not looking at charts. They're going to say, "Okay, bring pound up to 130 or whatever the level may be." Key levels. Yeah. Yeah. And that's why psychological round numbers come in. It's not because the banks they're looking at your trade trying to stop you out. It's there's orders up there because they can raise pound to that level and they know they can sell that those amount of pounds to another bank or another buyer, another punter, hedge fund or whoever it may be. So these guys are not looking at charts. Back then they wasn't anyway. So if you're if you're looking at a ladder or pricing and you've got an order for pound or euro in your head, you're not going to say bring it to 139.15. You're just going to chuck it up to 139, get rid of it, dump it and off you go again. And that's kind of how it becomes a bit systematical that price pegs around certain prices where which creates levels. Um, so there's no in my eyes there's no synergy at all.
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Do you think a retail trader should strive to even be like an institutional trader and try and get the secrets and try and understand between the lines? What do they do? Or it's a different ball game. We should find our own path.
It It's a different ball game completely. There is no secret WhatsApp group. There's no secret insider trading. That was 20 years ago. It's too regulated now. As a professional entity, you have to record every trade on an exchange. That exchange is monitored. It's all done in code names as well. So you can't see Goldman Sachs have bought 100 contracts of so and so. It's all done coded. So it's two different ball games. It it really is. As a retail trader, we we are purely speculating. So the less we worry about what the banks, the hedge funds, the institutions do, the better trader we'll become. Let them do the hard work. Let them move the markets. Let them shift price around. Let Donald Trump do whatever he has to do. Just let them crack on when the market moves. Understand how you can play the probability game within your success rate. And if if you're meeting your criteria and you're looking to win seven or eight trades out of 10, you're on a lucky path.
Myself, I'm a I'm a day trader or even a session trader, I would say. Uh, so I'm just looking for volatility, momentum, a bit of liquidity, and and trend. Just to very briefly explain. Um, but when I do look at the market as a whole, especially if you're, let's say, picking your pair based on seasonality and and more higher time frame based, when I look at it like that, I also have to think, okay, who's involved in the market and why are they involved? For example, you'll have people that are there to make profits, speculators, but then you'll also have people that are just exchanging in the currency. They're not really there for profits. Um, there's a lot of participants, especially in Forex, and there's a lot of different intentions there. It's not necessarily everyone is there to you know, make a profit based on a speculating trade.
When you are assessing in the market as a whole like and not necessarily session based or you know on a higher time frame, is there things there to consider or is it just simply wait for the movements, it doesn't matter who's there and then try and find opportunity based on trend?
Yeah, I've been there and I've studied that and I've and I understand that and it's something again we get asked all of all of the time. So if someone's buying, someone must be selling. If someone's winning, someone must be losing. It it's not for us to worry about if I'm completely honest. So the way that I kind of whittle down to actually pulling the trigger to take a trade is once we've got our watch list of markets that are on path on track to perform seasonally that gives us half an idea of where price is going to head to. The next thing you you you got to do is understand market structure and context. That will pin you down into a small region, small area on a chart. And that's when you can bring in levels and prices and highs and so on where you say this area here from A to B is my safe buy zone, should we call it. What I would then do on an hourly time frame is wait for momentum to kick in. So currency strength and weakness is the only way the market moves. If Euro is strong and pound is strong, the chart of Euro pound is just going to plot along sideways. There'll be no direction. So you need to look for the bully of the session and and the weakling of the session and put those two together. And if they fall in line with being on your watch list and the area that you've marked out, I don't typically wait for a pullback to enter. Although I'd like to enter off a 20 moving average to get some sort of context and to be disciplined in the approach to be consistent with it, but if you're in and the market's moving, you got to pull the trigger because momentum today may not be there later or tomorrow. Um, so the less I think we worry about outside factors and the more we focus on pinning in a tight squeeze of an area that you feel safe, waiting to look for markets that are strong and weak, pinning them together, get in the direction, you've got to take action. Mhm.
Let's say we've done step one, which is identify the correct pairs to be trading or the correct asset class to be trading, and that's through the seasonality and and the 20-year average. Now you found um the correct thing to be trading and then you're aligning with market structure to basically find a trend. Once you found your trend and let's say a demand area associated, how do you take it from a a large zone based on a 4-hour or a daily down to anything lower or down to an execution, let's say? Because you're mentioning you're waiting for movement. Yeah. How do you define movement versus let's say a fake out or just a wick that ends up a dogey candle?
So a fake out would be in a position that could be a high or a low in the market. So, okay, when we're in when we're looking for direction, as an example, you'll have, let's say, trading momentum, you're not catching the turn. So, the turn's already happened. So, as the market starts to progress, as we know, it's never going to go in a vertical line. You're going to breathe, you're going to cycle. Two cycles will typically confirm that you're in a confirmed trend regardless of time, regardless of what time frame you're looking at. Um, then when we see continuations, uh, price action plays a huge part in that. Different type of bullish engulfing candles, continuation candles, that will start to lead you on into edging that or knowing that a trade's coming. Depending on the market context that you've highlighted will decide are you at the beginning, middle or end of a of of a run of a trend. If you're at the end of a trend, you can say to yourself, well, too late. Let's look for another market. If that was Euro dollar and Euro's the beast, Euro strong today, let's look at Euro, Euro CAD, Euro Swiss. If you're at the beginning, then you know, okay, I've got two or three hour trade on my hands. If I'm in the middle, you might want to get in out one to one, catch the daily momentum that's there today. Um, how do you take it from zone and idea based on based on this of two legs of trend and so forth? How do you take it from that to execution of like this is exactly how I'll enter and this is where my stop loss will be 'cause it could be indicator based or it could be candle pattern candle patterns. There's many ways people execute. What is your chosen path to execute?
So providing you've got the correct currency strength and weakness on your hands. We'll always try, as I said, I'm not too fussed on waiting for the ideal pullback because you're going to miss it. It's going to come in the morning. It's going to come later. But we'll always use the 20 moving average as a buffer. Um, as the and this is great for for for new traders. The 20 moving average in trend typically sticks as a turning point. So rather than a new trader trying to really focus on price action and catch the lowest point to buy at or the highest point to turn at, which will only happen a handful of times in your trading career, 20 moving average gives you a nice buffer. So subject to being two or three candles away from the 20 moving average, you're still in the earlier point of that phase, right? So as a market cycles, we call it phase one, phase two. Phase two, we look at a minimum three bar pulling back interacting with a 20. If you're in the first two or three candles on the bounce of the 20 moving average, we'll look at, especially within the majors, we'll look at an 8 to 10 bar range. So an 8 to 10 hourly move.
What are you defining as a bounce? It's kind of an engulfing candle or just reversal closure.
Yeah. Yeah, if you're in an uptrend, so you can look at an inside bar closing above the 20 moving average, engulfing candle, pin bar. Okay.
And assuming that correct rejection has happened on your 20 moving average, how do you determine where your stop should be?
Stops always tucked behind the 20. Okay. And that will give you a value of a 1:1. So on an hourly time frame, your average stop could be 20, 25 points. Mhm. Um, 1:1 would obviously be another 20, 25 points ahead.
Is your average reward goal around the 1:1?
Majority of the time, yes. Um, especially when you're day trading 'cause as I say, we're so heavy on catching the momentum that's there right now, not later, not tomorrow. Um, one to one works well. So your goal is not necessarily you're positioned with early on in a trend, you've seen the initial momentum, you could go on to complete that trend and maybe wait a few weeks even based on the polarity of the the 20-year average. Um, you're kind of concerned with the daily movements. What is the opportunity of the day? Um, because that 1:1 could become 1 to 10 if if you let it ride. What is the reason you've chosen not to actually take the whole move and actually catch a small portion of it?
I think it suits the style of keeping it simple. Um, average is one to two trades a day max. Okay. Some days we take nothing and there's nothing there. So, for me, it is just keeping it simple and not overdoing it. I've spent years of of trying to hold trades for too long. I'm not a patient person. It just doesn't work for me. Um, I typically back home it was nice and easy. I trade the European session in the morning and that's where the majority of the positions come from. M just personal preference, not being patient and understanding that that is one of my weaknesses to so to avoid a weakness within your trading game, just get rid of it. Um, if I'm sitting there in front of a chart and the market's shifting, then we can manage it accordingly. But to take a real broad average, one to one works well. Okay. I'm not overdoing it. I'm not risking it. I'm not stressing myself. It's keeping it simple.
Do you believe in partials?
No. No. Okay.
Why is that?
If trading is not easy as it is. So if you've got any hint of indecision or any hint that something's up, get rid of it. The only reason why we trade is to make money. So we're not we're not trying to trade to post the charts on Facebook or show off or anything. It's to make money. There's money on the table and you've got a doubt. Mhm. Get rid of it. Fair enough.
Uh, how do you how do you decide risk as a topic? And what I mean by the question is more so based on your account's position, whether you're in drawdown, whether you're in profits, whether you're on a hot streak or losing streak to modify risk or if you have an A+ setup or something high conviction, will you scale in positions or will you add more risk because of the confidence in the trade? How do you approach the topic of risk?
Um, we teach scaling in our intermediate level, but personally, I don't actively scale in because I'm typically trading a one to one or managing that couple of hours worth of momentum. Instead of scaling in on the next cycle. So we we'll average six to eight cycles within a within a run within a trend. So subject to being third, fourth, fifth cycle, you'd add in on the second cycle, but typically you'd be out of the first trade anyway. So if that's the move like natural gas at the minute, Aussie and pound is something we're we're pinning our eyes on. As simplicity runs through, you're just taking each individual bounce in line with everything matching up. Um, but yeah, scaling is a is a great way to add into positions without perhaps jeopardizing your initial risk. So, as long as you get in nice and early, and that's the most important thing. And also, if you're wrong on your first position, don't even think about scaling and just accept that you're wrong, you've caught the wrong move at the time, and just get back in a first trade subject.
I know you're you're doing, let's say, an arbitrary 1% risk or how do you how do you tackle that?
1 to 2% risk. Okay. Yeah, typically 2% risk.
And are you great? Cuz the reason I'm bringing these questions up is because it's it's a nice debate I usually have where sorts of people are like up there with 20 to 15% risk, which I'm not sure how I agree with that. Other people are on the other end where it's like a 0.2% risk. Other people that I spoke to are just um only high conviction plays and double down on the A+ setups as whereas my my thing is just always 1%. I don't modulate anything. Um, I think that's personal preference and I also think it's the value that's in the account. If someone's a new trader, let's say they've got a proper account and got half a million quid in it or something, they're not used to trading that amount. So, trading at a quarter of a percent probably matches that person's style and the category just to adapt to the big numbers that they're in as a trader. Anyone that trades 20% is not going to be consistent long term. I'd love to see a 5-year track record of risking 20%. I think that mentality is more flips like is just taking a small amount to a large amount and being okay with it might go bust all the way back to zero, but it's not long. This is what what drives me mad about this whole prop firm industry is that it's amazing for people that know how to make money, but the problem is someone will take 10 challenges, lose nine, win one, and say, "Hey, there's 20 grand I've just withdrawn." But you've you've done a flip or you've overrisked to to to get a certificate to post and you've just wiped out nine accounts. It's Yeah, it's an interesting topic, let's say, because I know you come from a more uh well, you have what's the word? Maybe regulated or you have certain stamps of you have certain stamps of approvals from authorities on your education. So, I can completely imagine that your approach is more long-term track record and more sustainable trading. But I also see a lot of traders, especially in the comments, their goal is not to work for a bank. Their goal is not to work for a hedge fund. The goal is like, can I just better my situation? Can I? And it's not even let's say millions. It's like, can I make 50 grand this year? And and if that's the goal or that's what we're optimizing for or a lot of people watching are probably optimizing for, they don't care about the semantics. They don't care about the the professional side. They just I want to make money. And when they when I see these people online that I've got 3K to play with, I'm going to buy 10 challenges. I'll blow 9 plus one, but then I've spent 2K on challenges. My first payout is likely to be 5K just on a 5% gain of of 100K account. I'm already up and then therefore they end up taking the prop scenario as a gambling place. And as long as you have a small edge, even if you're not a profitable trader, everyone has a small winning period. If if you have that winning period on the right account size when it's funded, you can cycle out a lot of profit. So, I think that births a lot of um mentalities of just quick flips and so forth. How do you approach that from a more professional area?
Um, I mean, I see a lot of people do it because we have a lot of people come to our courses that are that are doing that, but those same people have the dream of sitting on a beach trading on their laptop. And if if anyone sits on a beach and trades on their laptop, I'm sure you're going to want a simple enough strategy that you can enjoy yourself. Not sitting on a beach flipping nine accounts, you're up, you're down, you're losing, you're it's going to drive you crazy. So, I think it comes they'll grow out of that stage. I think they'll find a system that does work for them because trading can be simple with trading basics does work in my the basics do work in my eyes. There's a lot that goes into it and you you've got to live, sleep, and breathe it and and so on. But the more you overcomplicate it, the more challenges you're going to face, the more trades you're not going to take because you got too many influencing factors.
Are you an advocate in general of prop firms?
Some. Yeah. Yeah. Some. Um, there's, as we know, there's a few that do it properly. Otherwise, not so much. No, because I mean, I know friends that have run prop firms. I know the industry. I know that the where they source their liquidity from. I see the numbers. One prop firm done over 4,000 purchases in a day during lockdown. So, say the average is $500. That's 2 million, 2 million quid in a day and has a 0.04% pass rate to phase one. Mhm. It's it's a commercial world, put it that way. It's an industry that's thriving in terms of upfront payments. And the the very few that do make money will get paid out from the per from the challenge purchases. Yes. Which is why I said if you know how to make money, prop firms are great because for a small fee, you can get a lump of money and and have some fun with it and make some money. But for the mass people that are that are wasting money, I would say because they don't know how to trade. They've got this option of now I've got 100K. Amazing. I could chance my luck and make 2 or 3K. Mhm. They might do it once or twice, but they're not going to do it consistently. So, it is a waste of money. As a trader, it's very simple. You have to find an edge and then you have to have a mind so you can follow that edge. But how do you know if you're performing correctly or not? You have to know your data. And Tradzeller is going to show you everything that you need beyond the surface level win rate and performance and equity curve. It's going to show you detailed reports. It's going to be your backtesting tool, strategy testing tool, playbooks, notes, and it's going to be a full journal. It makes your journaling easier, faster, and more meaningful. Whereas, if you were just documenting on an Excel spreadsheet or taking screenshots on your iPhone, you wouldn't be able to pull out the data that you need. The correlations that the AI within Tradezella is pulling out for you. There's so much variety and utility within the software that I think it's essential for any trader. So, the link somewhere below is going to take you directly to the Tradzella website. I'm not getting paid. This is for you. If you want it, if you like it, go ahead and explore it and probably you'll be using it for years to come.
Could you apply that same logic to just the traditional broker deposit broker CFDs where in profit someone's buying $100 challenge, $300 challenge? So, the downside is is limited. The point is also people buy five in a day. But the difference with that is emotional attachment. Okay? Trading your own money regardless of it's $500 or 5 million quid, you have your own emotional attachment to it. You're going to be more serious. You're going to treat it professionally. You are going to risk manage. With a prop firm, you could place 20 lots and hit and hope and see what happens and rub your hands. You're never going to do that on your personal capital because you've worked hard for it. So, that's the only challenge that we face. Traders at an intermediate edging to an advanced level. They've got this mentality of I've got to trade high lots because I've been doing it on a prop firm. I have to target five or sixk because I had a 100k account on a prop firm. And and the mindset shift is is a tough one to crack. It's completely true. I've spoken to a lot of like yourself proper founders and I think it's very normal in the brokerage space to utilize the data whether it's hedging the the client's trade or a book buck and and different things that they do and the profit owners I asked if you got 99% of people blowing accounts, uh, you can do a lot with that information and carve out your own strategies and put a book pot there. They're like, "Yes, but it's not it's not so simple because at least in a broker, you can rely on people behaving normally or predictably because it's their hard earned money." When it's funny money, it's demo money. Someone can just wake up, change their pattern and behavior, and just max leverage that day and and you can't forecast that. Like the data is not clean and not not necessarily usable as it is in the broker space for that reason. Yeah.
Um, yourself, are you therefore a deposit broker trader yourself?
I always have been. Yeah. Um, I can't I couldn't see myself doing it because it's not my money. So, I wouldn't take it seriously regardless if there was x amount of millions in there. It's I just got that mentality. I'd end up having a fun and trying to overrisk it and being one of those then the bad habits that not so much bad habits but just going f it. Let's see what we can have some fun here. It's cost me 500 quid or whatever. So, oh yes, it's always but like the whole kind of psychological game of trading. It never really affected me because I was in the industry for a long time trading before I traded my own capital. And when I did start trading my own capital, it was nowhere near as much as what I was trading under the influence of a fund. So, it was a real downgrade not downgrade, but a step down in terms of the monetary value, right? So, I never had that worry or or curse I like to call it, of worrying about money and the psychological aspect of trading. So, which is the opposite for a lot of new traders. They fall straight into that. M
I think a lot of people watching that have at least listened to this conversation, they would understand your principles of keep it simple and uh more more technicals that are just trend and and zones and so forth. And I think people can get very familiar with this and on board with it. Um, but they won't have the same results as you or or people that you've worked with reading between the lines. It may just be your psychology, the the years you've had it of experience, the numbers you've seen and the people you've had around you. What advice could you give for someone that's trying to apply similar simpler strategies? Uh, what what psychological approaches would be beneficial?
Um, I think going on what you said in terms of results there, if you can target 10% a month is a great target to to work towards. It doesn't matter if you don't achieve it month in month out, but that's a great round number, nice target to look to achieve. That being said, if you're trading a $500 account, making $50 a month isn't going to change your life. And you must understand that. So that's where you do need to fall back and think of the long game and work in percentage terms because making $50 on a $500 account is is amazing. It's outstanding and pat yourself on the back if you're doing it. But you need to realize that if you are doing that for three, four, five months, you can't get bored of making $50 a month. You just have to realize, yes, it's 10%. If I keep up, someone's going to back me, give me money, fund me. So, I think that's the biggest thing really is if you are starting with a smaller account, which I advise most people should do, don't worry if it's just $30 profit or $50 profit. Think of the money uh sorry, think of the percentage value rather than the monetary value. It should give you a bit of confidence to keep going.
With the probably thousands of traders that you've interacted with and and guided, what are some of the most common issues you see someone coming in that's blocking them from results? That being one of them. So, so putting 12 hours a day into this and only making $30, but realizing it's a large percentage of their account. Technically wise is time frame agreement. It's the biggest biggest thing I see. People get so stuck on a five and 15-minute chart trying to look at a movement and saying, "Oh my god, that's a level." And I don't know, drawing Fibonacci on a 5-minute pullback and it's just it's not going to make no sense. There'll be no relevance there. So, it is just reminding yourself to take a step back, look at the bigger picture, understand what's going on, and work your have the get the permit to work your way back down to the smaller time frames. Rather than sitting on a five-minute chart and being blown away here.
What we've seen since running the education in Dubai is the the emotional attachment to gold is just beyond belief. Interesting. Every nine out of 10 people are losing money trading gold, but they can't give up. It's it is honestly bizarre. So, putting some handcuffs on people and telling them to take a step back from from gold has been a challenge.
Why do you think that is?
It's just in their culture it's more gold is the asset to trade. Yes. Uh, also it's heavily in the news right now. So, it's gold's hitting all-time highs and people tend to try and buy if they're uneducated at the all-time high and and same as Bitcoin happens time and time out. Um, but yeah, I think culturally a lot of Indian community are heavy on gold. Uh, here in Dubai, you got the gold souk. So, it's it's a product that's known to everybody. To the non-investor, they know that gold's a safe haven asset. So, I just think it's a bit of a go-to and it's fast moving. It's volatile. Sexy, isn't it? It's It moves quick. So people think, "Okay, quick win, get rich quick. Gold's going to move fast. I can catch it." Sods law, the first trade does double their account. Yeah.
Funnily enough, my first ever trade, this is also 9 years ago. Um, I I didn't haven't even looked at any technicals. I just opened up an account. I forgot what broker it was. I just opened it up, saw the list of assets. I was like, I know gold. I don't know these other ones. And just placed a buy and and I'm trying to think, why did I just place a buy? I was like, well, gold always goes up, so that's a good trade. I put no analysis into it.
I can relate to that mentality. Yes, bro. This is the funny thing. Yes, my first ever trade I made. Again, it was completely irrelevant amount because it was a small account, but it gave me that initial buzz of like, oh, I bought gold. Gold gold always goes up. This is easy. And then shortly after, you're smacked with a few losses of reality. But do you know what I I secretly love about that theory is in lockdown, so co obviously in the UK, we had it quite hard. The amount of people I know that made money going on like a trading 212 or an eToro which is user-friendly and going oh Amazon and all of these online businesses that did hit record highs throughout that co period, so many non-investors and non-educated investors made money just through speculation and going oh yeah Amazon parcels every day, a bit of ASOS or whatever comes to your door, everyone makes money in a bull run but it's when the market conditions change which is the reality of traders to recognize that but if if you're just saying I I bought Bitcoin 20 years or 15 years ago and I made money. I'm a good trader now. You're not. You're just bought low and sold high in a trending market. Uh, which doesn't always mean competence. But that that theory of of buying buying low selling high is these guys that I mentioned earlier that dinosaurs in some extent that aren't technical. That is their theory. And if you look at like Intel now, Intel's priced below $2 is just sitting there doing nothing. People can lump on that will get to $4 quite quickly. You're doubling your money doing something so simple. So the that basis and theory is what real time investing actually is. It makes total sense. Like my bread and butter is leverage trading and and it's day trading. But now when the market is on a 20% 30% discount, uh, my eyes are all in on non-lever plays of like, okay, it's not the sexy numbers that I can pull out, but I can probably do 10, 20% with high confidence 'cause everything well Teslas are half price off from all-time highs and as you're saying, Meta is way lower or just the S&P. If you don't know what to pick, just S&P is 20% off right now is the way to look at it. May go down further, loading up in buyers because it will pop back up at some point. Um, are you involved also in just investing in terms of uh as opposed to leverage day trading for your wealthier people that you come across especially here?
To some extent. What we do, what we're very good at is is correlating pairs. So something we're doing here with a lot of the gold guys is introduce them to 10-year yields which work in negative correlation. So you'll get the heads up when yields are dropping, that gold's moving. Ah, yeah. Yeah. So tying that in with the dollar as well. People that trade gold don't realize you're trading a CFD. It's it's gold dollar. There's dollar there. You can't just neglect looking at the US dollar, which holds 75% of the movement we see every day. So it's actually educating people to know.
What markets are in correlation to give you the heads up that something's going to shift? M. So, with other markets, we, we, we buy a lot of ETFs, gold-related. GDX being one. We're quite heavily invested in oil. Uh, what is GDX? It's the ETF gold mining ETF. So, it's a collection. So that would be a more accurate representation of gold as opposed to dollar gold. Yeah, I like to just think of it as doubling up. It's a slower-moving asset than trading CFDs on gold, but it's a safer bet. That if gold is moving and shifting and pulling back, your ETF's just going to plot and going to crack on. So, if you can nick an extra 10% here and there a couple of times over the year investing in different ETFs, then it's just doubling up what you're already doing. So, I would say anyone at an intermediate level that has a favorite asset needs to look at to see if there is correlated ETFs and just park some money up there. Silver ETFs at the minute have to be the go-to. Why is that? Uh, it's a lot cheaper than gold. I don't think it's moved as aggressively as gold, but I think it will in the near future. So, that's a long-term speculative opportunity that is a safe one, if we say safe in trading, but that's one of them. Yes. Yes.
When you have looked at your career, which is, um, one of the longer careers that we've had on the show, uh, you've seen a lot. You've seen everything change. Like, we've had a co, we've had a way crash, we've had so many black swan events that when you, I guess, when you look back in your careers, like black swan hap, they happen often, right? Now, you could even call the tariff stuff black swan events to some extent. Uh, when you are seeing market cycles and you are seeing different trends and geopolitical factors and calamities, how do you, how do you navigate that? And what experience is that given you that a trader that's just on year one, year two, that is either trading a bull market, bare market, consolidating market, and building that habit, like the local investors that are just sworn on gold? What you experience initially probably makes your trajectory, but when you are experiencing everything, you can, you can look at things more holistically. What, what have you learned in that long career of yours?
Um, I think one of the biggest attributes as a trader is having the ability to adapt. And as we said earlier, somewhere trading CFDs, you can sell without owning an asset. If the market is tanking, then you've got an opportunity to catch some of that movement. When I first started was 2009, and one of the banks that we was brokering for, obviously on the back of the 2008 crash, had their largest, uh, year. And that was because they lent out the most money that year. M. And people think banks were shutting down, Lehman's closing, blah, blah, blah, blah. People made fortunes even through co. We had clients that become millionaires just through trading that had been two or three years into their journey because they were, they knew what to do at the right time and took advantage, but most importantly, took a risk and and took a punt, we call it, and went and went for it. Um, so having the ability to adapt is key, but you can make a lot of money. I mean, trading is a recession-proof skill. Yes. So, if you know what you're doing, it's these are times to thrive. Which I don't want to keep talking about COVID, but for, for some businesses in co, it was horrible. And it's, it's not nice to go around gloating that trading is a great time during that period, but it really, really was.
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Depends on trading style, and this comes down to the individual. If people, what I say is that people that have never taken a trade before will still have trading strengths. Whether that's they're disciplined, they're patient, they're organized, they might be decisive. So, when you understand a person's strength before they take their first trade, you can guide them into a market that suits their, what we believe, trader personality. Mhm. If we have a young guy who's a bit fruity and a bit large and wants to have a bit of fun, then we're not going to introduce US stocks to him straight away. He will be trading gold, silver, platinum, palladium, aggressive products. If you've got the average age man that wants to trade his pension, that's not too fussed about making fortunes, that just wants to make his money work for himself, you're going to keep him away from oil, gold, US30, and so on, and put him into more traditional assets on a higher time frame. So, it comes down to personal preference and the individual strengths and weaknesses as a person, not a trader.
Another big debate I've had on the show is this idea of psychology versus strategy. And, um, the, the arguments for one side is that you give two people the same strategy, you give them the same education, one guy will crush it, one guy will will make no progress. The, and therefore leaning more to it saying that the psychology is the issue. And, and the other argument that I've heard is, you take someone like a David Gogggins, the most, you know, disciplined XYZ person, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be the best trader just because he has that backing. Where do you draw the line of strategy versus psychology?
That summarizes all down to greed. That's all it is. So, we, we run live trading events. Say, we've got a hundred people in a room, we'll take a position. Everyone enters at the same price. Every single one of those 100 people have a different exit price. Some person's going, "This is going to go a bit further. I'll leave this. I'll move my stop loss. I'll drag my take profit." Someone might go, "Oh my god, I'm 30 quid up. Done. I'll get out of it. I've made my first trade's a winner." It all just boils down to to greed. It really, really does. Um, so something we work on there is is building a strategy around that individual, knowing your success rate, and when you know you're going to win seven or eight trades out of 10, you put your hands up and say, "I'm accountable for losing three trades." And I know it, I understand it before I even taken those trades, and you just play the probability game. You stick to the rules. That's your success rate. And you see how long you can you can crush it for.
How do you bring up the? Because it seems like you, you could control that exit price as well and let them know, like, this is what we're aiming for. Hey guys, announcing this is where we exit. Do you allow that to happen for them to also see in the room, like, this guy did this, this guy did that, I did this, and just have that first observation sometimes? Because it, it more boils down to the competition between all of us. So, say there's four or five traders taking trades. We all have our little bets and competition who can do the most in their period of time. So, it boils down to a bit of personal competition as well. But for the guys, it's more so that you're educating that this is an exhaustion candle. This isn't a big green bar that we're going to see a continuation. And the context of where this engulfing is positioned is exhaustion and showing them that, yes, it looks like a huge buyers candle, but it's time to get out. So, it's educating on the price actions in front of us. So, once you kind of give them that heads up, that's the reason why we're closing, um, then as long as they copy it and understand it and learn from it, then they should be be doing it. But we get all new traders trading one-to-ones to get their success rate first.
Okay. What is your philosophy or advice to traders that you come across when it comes to back testing? Uh, obviously it's a broad topic, but I want to give a few more parameters. Back testing is obviously where you can learn and test and and learn your behavior and so forth, but it's also away from emotion, and you can just replay more. You can actually find where price reversed and just zoom in and find the trade as opposed to the realities of every candle. Um, and at the same side, I've seen people that are just practicing forever. Like, I, I've also seen people that are so waiting for perfection that they won't even place a trade for six months because they just want to master the back testing. How do you correctly approach, uh, advising people to back test?
Back testing is great for training your eye to identify successful setups, which then later on fuels confidence. If they've seen it 100 times and it's worked, they're going to feel confident to pull the trigger. The only way you're going to build a success rate is by mastering a system on a onetoone and then back testing that to see over a 100 trades, how many trades did it win. So, to average it out, as I keep saying, seven or eight winning trades out of 10 is about right. As you're, you're an intraday day trader. So, before you even think about trading, you have to understand what this strategy I've seen it work through my own eyes. I've got self-confidence. I can use my own money and trade and risk it. And you've got to work that success rate out yourself to then have the confidence to remove emotions to forward test and to actually take trades live. That's, I think if you have that results, then that's going to take a lot of emotions out of actually taking trades because it then boils down to the game of probabilities.
Have you seen people back testing wrong and, and how would you identify wrong ways to back test?
I think it is this whole risk-to-reward game. We see it so often. Like, someone will take a trade and it will be a 12 to 1 risk-to-reward, which is amazing. Well done. Like, it's fantastic. To do that consistently is not possible depending on the volume of how many trades you take. You take a couple a year, then of course. But I think too, too many people are too focused on taking the perfect trade, which limits the amount of trades they take, and then trying to find these 10, 12 reward-to-risk ratio trades. You're going to waste way too much time trying to find that perfect setup. When, as I keep saying, basics works. The market's moving. Take action because it might not move later or tomorrow. So, if you have a system that works and you're using certain criteria, one of them being a bounce off a 20 moving average, then it's going to be quite simple to work out that strategy works. I've seen it with my own eyes. It's winning eight times out of 10. I now have the belief, the confidence to not worry about the money in my account. I know how to risk manage. I can go ahead and start taking trades.
We've spent a bit of time here on, let's say, the more basic approach of, uh, 1:1, 70% win rates, standardized risk, and so forth. You also mentioned at some point the intermediate programs that you have. So, I guess when you transition away from the beginning into more intermediate, advanced, what changes do you introduce?
We're still heavily price action based. So, it's different types of formations that we typically see. We bring in more advanced seasonal access. And for the guys that are trading end-of-day, longer term, we've got 36 professional traders in the UK office. Each individual has a different style and system. So, my style is just keep it simple, but some of the guys are super technical. Um, for the, for the guys that are trading end-of-day, we bring in commitment of traders. So, we have our own software that filters it into chart format. So, you've not got to sit there reading spreadsheets upon spreadsheets. It breaks it down into looking at all-time highs and peaks within commercial, non-commercial buying and selling. Um, which is a different ballgame. You could do a two-year course on co data and still not discover the majority of it. We bring in a lot of correlation trading. And then we bring in different products. So, when they progress from an intermediate to an advanced, it then becomes one-to-one personal coaching rather than like group sessions and generic topics. So, you identify what that individual strengths are and then, as I said earlier, if you find a slow-moving trader, then you introduce them to Nike, McDonald's, and typical US stocks. They understand what they are, that pattern very well, and just move typically slow. If you've got someone that is a, is a wild one, then yeah, platinum, palladium, silver, different oil products you then push them into. So, it's more broadening the horizon into different products, understanding treasuries, yields, bonds, how those markets work. Um, we have qualification programs that introduces options, futures, short-term interest rates, which is again a whole different ballgame. So, it's more broadening the horizon of assets, but not changing the style of price action.
I guess now on your 15th year of trading, um, the habit of journaling, which I guess everybody knows, everyone talks about, everyone encourages, but for me, it's always felt like homework, like it's something you know you should do, but you don't really want to do. Um, is it something you still do at this stage in your career?
Honestly, no. Um, but we do educate the clients to do it. It's accountability. That's, that's what it is. Um, but having a one-to-one coach and a one-to-one mentor, you hold each other accountable anyway. If someone's paid for an educational course over 12 months and they're learning a strategy and that strategy is not working, they can hold that person accountable. If the coach has told you everything you need to do and you're doing it and you're not doing it, then you're accountable for your success. The, the beauty of of education is the only way to measure success is profit and loss. You can't be a great trader if you're not making money. That is the, the bottom line fact. So, you need to hold your mentor or coach or or whoever you work with accountable. If you're doing what they're saying and it's not making money, then they're accountable for your success. And that's why I love the education side because I want people to challenge us and come back to and say, "Hey, I'm trying it. I'm not making money."
So, the advice you give to your clients of, uh, journaling. How do you advise them to do it? Because it's another thing that I see a lot of people doing 'cause they're told, but without a purpose, let's say, or just doing it as it's a habit, but without pulling the information out of or even analyzing it correctly. Yeah. What would you say is the correct way to journal?
I mean, the great thing now is there's so many platforms that do a lot of the hard work for you and pull up the statistics and the stats. A lot of the guys use a platform called Edgewalk. Um, if you've come across it before, it's, it's got all the same statistics as the majority of what they have. As a new trader, an intermediate trader, you're not going to know what statistics are going to benefit you in detail. So, this is where you do need to work with someone to actually say, "Hey, look, I mean, as a new trader, you can say Mondays, I'm not making any money. Let's cut Mondays out." But as you start to get a lot more advanced and to make sure that you are staying within your risk parameters, you are sticking to the strategy, um, there could be new findings that your coach or mentor could pull that you can't pull out of that data. So, I think it's great doing it, but you need to discuss it. It's not just, don't just pay for a license and journal. Oh yeah, one 70% of the times last month. You've actually got to dig deep and work with someone who knows how to dissect it and can pick out your strengths and weaknesses.
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For a trader who's coming into the industry and, and I imagine a lot of the viewers are on year one, year two, or maybe even just month one. Um, they're, they're seeing the stats around of 90% of people lose on broker stats. The profit stats that you mentioned of people that get to the first payout is a decimal percentage. The odds are heavily stacked against. Um, would you still encourage them to consider this as a path when there is many ways to make money online, there's many side hustles someone can take? Uh, just to end on a more positive note, let's say, what are the silver linings or what should someone hold out for in these periods of struggle? Say trading is the path for me. It's the right path, and, and how can they determine if they're on the right way?
As long as you understand that it's a profession and it's not a get-rich-quick scheme. That's the first hurdle you've got to get over. Trading, we see it day in, day out. It changes people's lives. But you have to be committed, decisive. You have to give your absolute all. It's not easy. But the rewards are endless. The freedom's endless. The opportunity is endless. The people you meet within the industry is invaluable. It's amazing. So, you've got to be prepared to to work hard and grit your teeth and get stuck in. And you've got to give yourself time. If it's not working for you month one, you got to keep digging. Keep digging and work with someone that you resonate with, that you can rely on. Not just saying it from myself. There's, there's thousands of great traders out there. And if you resonate with them, you like them, you trust them, they can show you their results, you can meet them, they're not hiding behind a computer. Someone that is making money will shorten the length of time it is to become a successful trader. You can do it in, honestly speaking, you can do it in a year, and that will give you enough time to go round the cycle of, don't like that strategy, love that strategy. Try end-of-day. I'm not, I'm too impatient. I need something aggressive. The other way to fast track trading success, and this might sound funny to be honest, but it's not to understand the whole financial markets because that's going to take years and years and years, and to be honest, a lot of it is irrelevant. You need to learn how to make money. And learning how to make money trading is different to learning how to trade the full financial markets.
Interesting. My my brother's doing economics at Warwick, so he's at a very astute establishment, and, and you know, he's learning all the correct things, but including some things that are wrapped in a trading lens, but, uh, I don't know any of that stuff. And when I do look through some of the, okay, it's just good to know. It's just interesting, but it doesn't have an impact on making money. It's just, okay, these things, it's information. People don't realize that making money from trading is different to learning how the financial markets work. They're miles apart. You could spend four or five years learning about the whole economics and financial world, and a lot of it's irrelevant. And also, because you've been in the game for 15 years, I guess you've seen a lot of faces, a lot of great people, and also a lot of crooks, let's say, uh, a lot of authors, a lot of books, a lot of resources, YouTube videos. There's, I think in this day and age, education is not an excuse, or knowledge is not an excuse, 'cause we have access to so much on our fingertips. What is something that you read or watched or an event you may have attended that really impacted you?
I was fortunate to be on, as I said, trading for, had 600 traders at one point. And being 16, 17, you start to understand the nicer things in life, don't you? And if someone's got a nice watch or a nice car, we used one of their holiday homes in Marbella one year, and it was just, it blew me away. And I thought, how on earth has this guy got this? He brought a G Wagon just to take his inflatables down to the sea. This is in like 2010, 2011. I just thought, something's happening here. So, being motivated and inspired will edge and fuel you to continue and give you a confidence and momentum, motivation to keep going. So, for me, it was just being around people that I aspired to, really, at a young age, and having the confidence to go and actually speak to them. Um, someone told me something funny last week, they said, "Your net worth is your net worth." And someone butted in and said, "Only if you use it." And it's so true. If you don't use your net worth, it's worthless to you. So, if you've got someone that you know is a trader or someone that's runs a successful business in any industry, go and speak to them. How did you do it? I love those TikToks of people going, "How did you make your money?" Brilliant, bro. And they're going, I love it.
You know, one thing that just off the back of that comment is, um, this idea, someone said it to me, of people regress to the mean. And the idea being like, if, if I take a person and he, and I just put him in a rural village in Africa somewhere, even though he might have the same level of intellect and so forth, his environment will shape him. You take that same person and just put him in Harvard or Silicon Valley in the cafes where people are coding and building, you know, future tech, he's going to have different thoughts, beliefs, uh, ideas, conversations. And I think environment is definitely one of those things. And, and personally speaking, just number one, the podcast, and number two, being in Dubai, I'm constantly around people doing amazing things, incredible things, and that just pushes my bar up, or my bar up of what is normal, what is success to me. And, and if I was back home in, in Kent, it would be another situation. And it's still me at the end of the day. We have a, uh, in our UK trading floor, we have an open door policy, which means anyone can come at any time. And as you walk in, there's a big sign. It says, "If you hang around five traders, you'll be the sixth." And you see it as you walk in, you think, "Stick around. Stay around." Yeah. Brilliant. James, thank you very much for your time. I'm sure you got a lot of things to run off to, but appreciate the conversation. Thank you.