Transcription
Hello everybody. It's Tuesday, Octa time. It's where we look at a lot of on-chain data. And there are a few interesting surprises this week which could be construed as positive, and there could be something big in the pipeline. But let's get into it. And, uh, thank you to the mods in the chat. I see Shy T and DK8, everybody else. And none of this is ever financial advice, just a guy on the internet. And also a huge thank you to Patreon. I've resisted buying Patreon since 2021. Honestly, best value for money for individuals seeking intel focused on making money. Yes, that's the idea. And we've got to try to find a way to do that quickly because the world is changing very fast.
Let's get into the ugly news. Not too much ugly news, just the usual unlocks. Nothing too big here. Usual suspects: Optimism every week, about 2%, 1.3%. Mutable X, 1.3%. Move, 1.92%. Aptos, 2%. Stark, 3.53%. It's interesting, OENA is there too, but it's a small unlock this week, only 0.64%. They're there every single week. So are the Layer 2s in Ethereum every single week. 2% unlock, but it does add up.
Let's go into the bad news. I struggled to find a lot of bad news today. Uh, but I did find a couple of things which could be construed as good news, but I'll share them anyway. This is a cool little chart from James Check, Check on Chain, and he shows clearly how we have had the third largest profit-taking session in this whole bull run. We had the first one around, it was March, April 2024. Then we had the one in December 2025, which ran a little bit into January, December 2024, which ran into January 2025. And then we had the one we just went through right now, especially with the $80,000 dump. The point is, even with that dumpage, the third largest sell-off, we are still a hair away from all-time highs. And that is very, very powerful. That shows you there is some type of accumulation happening behind the scenes. We know what it is. It's the treasuries. It's maybe a couple of sovereigns. People are buying this stuff quickly, quickly. They're not waiting. You can drop, you can fumble $80,000 Bitcoin on the market, it'll gobble it all up. And that's fantastic news.
Uh, let's look at another piece of bad news, which is kind of interesting. Now, there are many ways. There are 60 different ways I value blockchains, but one of them is the easiest way you can all do yourself. You calculate the market cap of the chain and you divide it by daily transactions on the chain. We now have a new winner for the most expensive chain out there. It's Cardano with $926,000, $526 bucks per transaction. Nearly a million dollars per transaction. If you take it on a fully diluted market cap basis, it's over $1.2 million per transaction. And Ethereum is up there at $286,000 per transaction. And if you look at Solana, it is $940 bucks per transaction. So ETH is now 308 times more expensive than Solana. But what's really crazy about this, not just that Cardano is a thousand times more expensive than Solana, or you can pick any other chain out there, but all the transactions happen on Solana. That's why I talk about Solana a lot because it is dominating the winner-takes-most, etc. But XRP is now cheaper than Ethereum on this metric. Okay, XRP trades at $113,863 per transaction versus nearly $300,000 on Ethereum, which is bonkers. Polkadot, nearly $600,000, but that's dead anyway. Many of the chains here are dead, but a few will win. And I just thought that was fascinating to see. Fascinating. And it's just data. But maybe it could be that the value of the transaction on one chain is a thousand times more valuable than a transaction on the other chain, or not. I don't know. User is a user, network effects, it all matters.
Now let's get into the good news. Fear and greed still high, 73, which means people are greedy and they want to win. When they're greedy, they buy. When they're fearful, they sell. That's the easy way to think about this one. Let's look at the market. The market has not done anything over the past seven days despite the undulations. And we're always, always happens every single week. The pattern has been, you know, Friday, Friday evening, Friday after the market slows, Bitcoin pumps, Saturday strong, Sunday strong, Monday morning strong, and then boom, sell-off. Tuesday, Wednesday, and then Thursday flat. Then it comes back again. But since last Tuesday, the market has done nothing. Okay, ETH basically flat. Binance up 5%. Uh, very good for CZ, multi-multi-billionaire. I think it's worth $75 billion now. Solana down 2%. Everything else pretty much flat except for Cardano down 13%. Maybe people saw this data and got fearful. Anyhow, it doesn't matter. There's no logic at all in crypto markets. There's no fundamentals. There's no use of data. It bewilders me. I thought one of my predictions for 2025 last year was that people would start using data and metrics and fundamentals in crypto. I was wrong about that one. They don't at all. They don't. Oh well, who cares? Moving on. They will one day. Maybe four years from now. I don't know. Maybe they'll use AI to do data. We'll see. But you can see over the last 7 days in melting fiat terms again, Bitcoin flat, up 0.14%. Ethereum up 0.13%. Binance up that 5%. Everything's kind of pretty much hasn't gone anywhere.
Now, there's also this slide, next slide is a little bit out of sequence, so I apologize for that. Um, but I'm going to share it anyway because I won't get back to it if I skip it. But Jupiter tracks Solana with a beta of 1.26. And the reason I mention this, of course, as well, is we are kind of heading into an alt season, and the smaller the market caps that follow the mother ships, for example, Jupiter is on the Solana chain, it will outperform. And Messari had a great stat here where Jupiter tracks Solana with a beta of 1.26. So if Solana goes up 1%, Jupiter will go up 1.26%. It's an easy way to think about that one. Just so these things will pop. These will pop over the next five months. I'm pretty sure of that.
Let's look at money flow a little bit. Again, this is in sequence, but investment products had another great week. I mean, the record weeks are insane at this stage. They had another $1.9 billion in inflows, bringing month-to-date to a record $11.2 billion bucks. Crazy. And ETH had another good week. ETH out, unusually. Um, apparently the treasury of the Ethereum Foundation is selling, but I don't know what that's about. But the Trifi folks are piling in, $1.9, $1.59 billion into ETH. Solana, second biggest, $311 million. XRP, $189 million. And, uh, the rest are crumbs, $8 million. Um, and that's pretty much it. Uh, so it is going well so far. And, uh, there were some altcoins that did have outflows like Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, which is, you know, I don't even know why Bitcoin Cash or even still people are still trading that. But the point is, look at the big ones. Look at the big money, and people still believe in XRP and they're funding it.
Let's look at the top 50 price change over the last 30 days. This is not 7 days. It's a mistake in the title. My bad. Uh, but Pingu up 200%. I still don't even know what that is. Uh, Athena had a big week, too, despite having terrible tokenomics. And Bonk, third one. So, this just shows you the fact that I don't understand crypto. I understand how to analyze crypto, but the results week to week can sometimes be very, very weird. There you have Bonk, Athena, and Pangu all doing very well. But the point of this chart really is over the last 30 days, not 7 days, everything pretty much is up. Um, everything with the exception of Monero, Leo, Aptos, and Pi. See, the Layer 2s have continued to do very badly, very badly because the only Layer 2 that's doing a lot of business is Base, and there's no token for that. So, we'll see.
Let's now what everyone knows, when is alt season going to happen? When is it going to begin? Well, you could argue it's beginning. We had a shoot up there to 60 and a little mean reversion back down to 43. But there are things bubbling up out there in the crypto system. Bitcoin dominance has tanked off its high. It's down under 60 now again. And ETH dominance is going up big time. And that's eating into the Bitcoin dominance as well.
Let's look at the top 50 over the last 90 days. Over the last 3 months, Bitcoin's up 22.2%. Uh, Sol up 20%, but then Pangu up 241%. But other things on the right down. But the point is, Bitcoin is holding its own. It's right there, two-thirds of the way in the middle. And a lot of altcoins have actually done very well over the last 90 days. And they typically, when they start to move, they move a lot more than the bigger assets. But Ethereum up 105% in 90 days. It doubled in the last 3 months. Absolutely crazy move. Crazy move. But also it was suffering for the last couple of years since 2022. So it had its day in the sun, and that's typical. Every asset will have its day in the sun.
Now, let's talk a little bit about on-chain data for Bitcoin. Everybody's wondering, are we at the top? Everybody's selling. And oh my god. Well, the point is, yes, the $80,000 Bitcoin long-hold vintage wallet did sell. That was the big sell-side event. But if we look back at historical cycles, go back to 2017, you can see how much selling actually happened at the peak of the cycle. Now, a couple of things. Again, this from James Check, Check on Chain. I want to point out this is my interpretation of his chart, not his interpretation. But if we go back to 2017, the amount of selling was outrageous, but it continued for months and months. The selling happened for three or four months. That's probably because on-chain data wasn't as sophisticated and people couldn't see who was actually selling. But even with all that heavy selling, the price still went up.
Then we had the 20 Jan, Feb 2021. The market rolled over, largely due to the evaporation of the GBTC arbitrage bid. Notice also in November 2021, there was not much selling, but that means, or there was a big chunk of selling, sorry, a huge chunk of selling, um, but not compared to what happened earlier in 2021. That was crazy. It just shows you it was such a manipulated cycle. We hit a new all-time high in November 2021, but there wasn't a lot of selling, so it was completely contrived.
Now, compare that to this current cycle. We had three big selling peaks, which is what we showed here. Uh, bring them back. Boom, boom, boom. This is kind of like a zoomed-out version of that exact chart. And you can see we are nowhere near, nowhere near any type of euphoria. And per James Check on Chain, he says he's very bullish and there's a lot of room to run. All because of the accumulation that's happening, and we're going to get into that in a minute now as well.
First of all, shout out to Bitcoin Therapist. Um, if I'll show my face for this one. As you know, since 2017, I've been analyzing lost wallets. There's about 5 million Bitcoin that will probably never resurface again unless, 8, 10, 15 years from now, quantum computers can hack those wallets and bring it back. But those things are gone. They're in landfills. The Satoshi 1.04 million Bitcoin, all this other stuff. People sending Bitcoin to Never Neverland, losing it, losing keys, losing, uh, cold storage devices, etc. Burning them, destroying them, drowning them, losing them on boats. 5 million Bitcoins lost. Okay, so put that in perspective. We're not even at the 20 million Bitcoin being mined yet. The last 1.3 million Bitcoin will take the next 120 years to mine.
But this is important. If you look here, Bitcoin Therapist was similar to what I covered at the weekend, actually, in a video. BlackRock has accumulated 740,000 Bitcoin. MicroStrategy, 630,000 Bitcoin. That's nearly 1.4, 4 million Bitcoin in the last couple of years. You could argue five years for MicroStrategy, a year and a half for BlackRock, but and the price is only at $118,000 per Bitcoin. But the point is, my interpretation of this is these two players, okay, have 1.4 million Bitcoin. There will only ever be 15 million Bitcoin. These two players now own nearly 10% of all Bitcoin. And that's staggering because they've come out of obscurity in a very short window of time.
Then we could have another player coming, and we're all going to be excited for this news tomorrow. And I hope it's not another nothing burger, but it could be. But again, from the Bitcoin Therapist, the White House to release the first national strategic stockpile and Bitcoin reserve report tomorrow. That will be how they fund it. Okay? Without charging taxpayers or using money that's earmarked for other things. How will they build a Bitcoin strategic Bitcoin reserve? They promised they will. I hope they do. They have about 200,000 already that was confiscated from years back. But one of the ideas that I see, and many other people probably see as well, is why not use the new tariffs to buy Bitcoin? So if they use just the money collected in June, $26.6 billion, they can buy at least 230,000 Bitcoin right there. Okay. 230k plus the 200k, that would take them to 430,000. But it gets better. Gets better. What happens if they take all of the tariff money, not just June? What happens if they take the plan for the year? Shout out to Rev and Kelshi. US tariff revenues. Rev shared this revenues. Tariff revenues. Get it? Anyway, uh, they had a huge month for July, $28 billion, and the forecast for 2025 could be at least $150 billion, probably 80% chance at $200 billion, etc. And it goes up from there. 58% $300 billion. Ignore the 40% chance of half a trillion dollars. But the point is, if they had $200 billion, okay, they can buy 230,000 with $26 billion. If you nearly 10x that, that's 2,300 Bitcoin. But of course, the price will go to the moon. They won't be able to fill their boots at that price. But if they start buying, I tell you, if the US tries to buy 250,000 Bitcoin or even 300, 400,000 Bitcoin more, price will probably go to half a million dollars. Not just because of the hardness, but also because of the global FOMO that will come into this space from sovereigns around the world. Every central bank that has the courage will take their little money printer, print off the garbage fiat, and buy a Bitcoin. And we'll be sitting here with our popcorn, hopefully with you all watching. It's going to be fun.
And okay, we couldn't get any more bullish. Shout out to Bitcoin Breakdown. They had this cool little survey. Um, somebody is betting $23.7 million that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by December. So, what does the survey say? Well, 42.2% believe maybe it's possible, $200k by December. That's 20 weeks away. Uh, absolute easy money. 27% believe it's almost in the bag. The Bitcoin bag is going to be filled with $200k Bitcoin. Unlikely. Too optimistic. 25%. That's good. That's tempered. No way. Impossible. 26%. But basically, only 31% say not going to happen. Nearly 70% believe in $200,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year, which is bonkers. But I'm here for it. If it happens, we'll enjoy it and we'll have parties.
And speaking of this too, this from Bitwise. If you look at these charts, this is the stablecoin market capitalization. The light green is Tether, Circle growing like mad, mostly over the last 5 months, printed on minted, printed, same thing on Solana, and then the others are crumbs. They don't matter. Absolutely going parabolic. Okay, stablecoins are going parabolic. I'm repeating myself because it's huge. This means billions in new liquidity is entering the system. And guess where it's headed? It is headed straight for Bitcoin and some other crypto assets. But the other cool thing I'd like to point out is on the right-hand side of this chart here is the amount of transactions. The lion's share of all the transactions are done on Circle, not on Tether. So that's extremely interesting. Circle is not as big, but it's where all the transactions are happening. Powered by, yes, you guessed it, this name, Solana.
Now, Solana also from Solana News dominates all all chains combined, okay? With over 80 million active wallets so far in Q2, more than all other chains combined. Again, it's living up to my vision. Winner takes most. It's the way of the world. You know, there aren't 10 winners. There's only ever one winner that does 80% of everything. It's just Pareto efficiency, the way of the world. People gravitate towards the best solution, and that's what it is. And in more data, uh, Ethereum now has 4.2 times the market cap of Solana. But just a reminder, Solana does nearly 7,000% more daily transactions. It has 633% more users. Each user does nearly nine times more transactions as daily transactions over daily users. And the average fee is 58,000% more expensive on Ethereum. Okay. And despite the fees being 510,000% more expensive, Solana makes more in daily fees. Bonkers. This, you know, I've been looking, I've been doing this data since 2021, since we built to this actual thing. Never in my wildest dreams did I believe Solana will be so far ahead so fast. And here we are. Yet the price does not reflect the data. It will one day, just not yet.
Let's look at some of the DApps as well. Some of the top DApps that are making a ton of money, not just the chain itself, but also the DApps. Uh, number one is Axiom, which I need to dig into. They're making $12.2, $26 million over the last 7 days. Jupiter, number two, $7 million, and Bonk, $6.69 million. They've taken all the market share, apparently a lot of it away from Pump. Phantom's up there too. Raydium as well. Meteor and Trojan. This is where all the money is. And Jupiter silently became the seventh largest validator on Solana. They with about 6.4 million SOL in there as well. This is much higher than Sol Strategies and, uh, other players, and they've come out of obscurity, which is super interesting. And because DEX volume is also, that should be DEX volume, not dev volume. Raydium is still the king, nearly $12 billion, actually. Hang on. Yeah, $12 billion in just a week on Raydium. Orca, number two, $5.7 billion. Again, as usual, winner takes most. That's Raydium still killing it. But there are a couple of others there.
Let's talk about stocks and some proxies for a second. Just like crypto, stocks didn't do much this week, but Broadcom went up 3.55%. Nvidia keeps on churning away, 2.78%. And Google, 1.75%. Google, good week. Tesla down 2%. Amazon up 0.7%. And I saw J&J there. I was thinking injector for a second. And Apple down. Stock market fear and greed is at 70, is greed, which is good.
And this is interesting for those of you with MicroStrategy. Cantor Fitzgerald raised their price target of MicroStrategy to $680 bucks, up from like $460 or something. A huge big rise. And they believe, they believe, and I backed into this like, well, $600. What is the price of Bitcoin if that's the price of MicroStrategy? Well, I believe it'll be circling about $170,000 at that level for MicroStrategy to $680. Assuming they don't buy any more Bitcoin, Bitcoin will be at $170K, which is not far from $200K. Again, the bullish sentiment out there is nuts. What do Cantor Fitzgerald know? Howard Lutnick, used to be his business is now in the White House. He knows about the SBR we've been talking about. He knows about front-running. He's behind C, which is building a bag of 42,000 Bitcoin and more in cahoots with Tether, that we just talked about, that have a huge bag of over 100,000 Bitcoin as well. Everybody else is running in here, and Saylor is about to buy $2.8 billion worth of Bitcoin this week. It's crazy. It's just, it's all treasuries, and they're not slowing down. Marathon are coming to the table. They were planning to raise $850 million, but they oversubscribed at 0% coupon. People are throwing money at them to buy Bitcoin. Nearly a billion dollars, $950 million. And that'll take their bag up to north of 60,000 Bitcoin. Again, massive. And they're mining 700 plus a month, too.
And speaking of other stocks and ETFs, Ark have chosen Sol Strategies. CYFRF is the OTC ticker or HODL in Canada. They are picking Sol Strategies as their exclusive staking provider for Solana. Now, this means that other chart I showed you up above here, if all the big ETFs start pulling in a lot of money and they start going with, say, Sol Strategies, this table will change. That means Sol Strategies will move up, up the list quite a bit as well. So, shout out to Kathy Wood. Uh, she's also very heavily exposed to Ethereum with the Tom Lee operation as well. But, uh, hopefully their ETF staking ETF will get approved pretty soon too.
And if things couldn't get nuttier, yes, shout out to the retail investors watching this show right now. That's all of you, by the way. Retail investors now own 42% of Tesla shares. That's the highest of any trillion-dollar company. We are the captain now. You know the meme. Well, we are the captain now. So, retail investors have a huge influence over Elon Musk, and Elon Musk cares about us retail investors. Okay, so I hope you all have a little bit of a bag out there.
And comparing this, I was asking, okay, if Tesla has 42% retail investor, what does Nvidia have? Well, that's pretty high, too, but nowhere near as high as 42%. That is 29.2% as retail. Institutions own 67%. That is monstrous. So it's heavy, heavy institutional, and the institutions for Tesla own less than 50%. Good to see. That's why it's not liked very much. But that has to change. Once we start seeing the results of things like robo-taxi and Megapacks and Optimus launching next year, you will see the institutions FOMOing in. But we're in early, and that's the gift. So, all I ask is you to be patient.
Then this happened, and I wrote a Substack on this yesterday. It's free for anybody who wants to see. Actually, 35,000 people read that Substack yesterday. 35,000 people. It's bonkers. People, and let me know in the comment below. I'm thinking about this. I'm, I'm people are reading my Substacks probably as much as watching the videos. Do you prefer reading my material or do you prefer watching videos? Let me know because I'll put a lot more effort into writing if you guys prefer reading. And I personally am a reader because I read much faster than what I can view something at 200%. And I like to read. Uh, listening, I can hear, but when I see it, it sticks in my brain better. So let me know below what you think. It's, I'd love any feedback there.
And this is huge. Okay, this is a paper I wrote about yesterday. The AI6 chip deal. Samsung building AAB right next door to the Gigafactory in Austin, Texas to be able to build these AI chips. AI5 can't even be exported because it's so powerful. It has to be nerfed, which means scaled back a little bit. But this analyst really knows his stuff. Ming-Chi Kuo, he's a top Taiwanese semiconductor analyst. And he said if successful, it could give Elon Musk major leverage in chip design cost and foundry control. He already has foundry control. He got the head of TSMC in Taiwan to guarantee him capacity. And now he has Samsung building a shop right beside his shop to make semiconductors for the cars and the robots and the Dojo supercomputers as well. It'll be the same processor, just how many you'll have on a board and whatever you're throwing it into. It's unbelievable. This could completely revolutionize how these GPUs are actually made for learning and AI. Don't fade this. Any, you know, Elon tends to do things a little bit differently, and he tends to win. So, I'm interested to see where this goes. And he even said yesterday in a tweet yesterday, watch this space. Nobody realizes what's happening, but in the next two or three years, you will realize, and that's huge. And by the way, it's going to be $17 billion. First tranche of commitment to Samsung to buy these things. Calculate how many chips that is, everybody. $17 billion. That's how many robots and cyber-cabs that they want to roll out.
Okay, back into it. It's all the data is there. Back into it. Wall Street can't figure it out, but we can. And we love doing it, too. And shouting out to Samsung once again. Uh, you can see here, Apple iPhone is falling off a cliff, down from 70% market share of volume, falling now to about 50%, and Samsung has gone up from about 18% to 33%, 35% of all market, sorry, 38% excuse me. Uh, so iPhone going down, Samsung's going up. Samsung is eating Apple iPhone market share. But it's okay. iPhone have an answer. It's going to be iPhone 17 or 18 or 16 or one of those things in a new color. That's how they're going to deal with things.
And final meme of the day. Sometimes my memes are a little bit serious, but this is an important one, too. Shout out to Naval. He said in a video, "Pride is the enemy of learning." And as I say, ABL, always be learning. Keep learning. Especially in this era of AI, you have to keep your tools real sharp. This is your tool up here. Keep it sharp, everybody.
By the way, all these videos are turned into Substacks. Um, I'm writing much more because it's such an urgent time. I think it's far less than 10 cents a day, um, for all of this material and podcasts. If you need to listen, if you need to listen or get all the slides, whatever. Thank you to the team that manages all that as well. And there is a team managing it too. And thank you to everybody for coming. Hope you enjoy the show. Hit the like if you learned something new. And a big thank you as well to Roasted Woods and Sol Bull. I appreciate you guys. And thank you TND Tesla and Shauny and K8 and everybody else. Have a great Tuesday. I'll be back tomorrow. Tomorrow is hump day. And the markets, by the way, are probably still sucking a bit, sucking gas. But HIMS is up, gold is up, Google is up, everything else pretty much down. Uh, Bitcoin fell $500 bucks during the show. Oh well, still above $117K. Take care everybody. Have a good night.