Transcription
Today's topic is gold, and people are waiting to hear the professor's analysis after the shocking drop of over 4,000 in the last couple of days.
The price fell and then bounced back a little. How will it continue to rise? This is a direction that many people are wondering about. Previously, Khun Ke, oil was rising, and gold was rising, because people believed that the production cost of gold mines was linked to oil.
Oil rises, gold must rise too. Then, when the strait was closed, it turned out that gold surged. Oh, excuse me, oil rose, gold fell.
Because people saw that everyone would sell all their assets to survive, by making sure there were assets, whether it was oil, natural gas, plastics, or fertilizers, they had to rush to stock up as much as possible, competing fiercely.
Therefore, all assets were sold off. Not to mention the situation where everyone had to sell to support the continuously declining stock market before.
Because of this, that situation resulted in gold falling while oil rose. Oil rose, but gold fell, moving in opposite directions. This time, it's back again. It seems like negotiations can be reached. Oil falls, gold falls further.
That's right, professor, what's going on? It seems like the strait is opening, it seems like negotiations can be reached, oil can be sold, and oil has already fallen. Then why did gold fall again?
Most recently, West Texas Intermediate fell below 70, professor. It fell. And now people are observing what is happening around the world. You can't hold onto anything.
And don't even mention Bitcoin, oh my, it's extremely volatile. Stocks are also fluctuating. Stocks are also fluctuating. What is happening? Where is the money going?
To the extent that OpenAI recently said they are giving up on IPOing next year, is that good or bad? I'm starting to worry. Because the stock market doesn't look very good, and people are starting to suspect which bubble will burst first.
I've been watching 2-3 things, viewers, follow me. What are people afraid of right now? First and foremost, they are most afraid of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
This is happening all over the world now. Because they believe that if inflation is high, and inflation is currently high, and it has a tendency to remain high with no prospect of improvement, it is the most volatile because oil is falling. Everyone predicts that if that's the case, inflation will fall in the future.
However, regarding interest rates, if they rise, whenever they rise, many people believe that the weight will shift towards holding US dollars because they offer higher returns. Many people predict that when the central bank raises rates, everything will become expensive, and costs will increase due to the financial interest rates in the United States, which hold dollars.
All of this means the economy will have to be sluggish, right? Yes. Because the cost of finance is increasing. But it will curb inflation, which is making things difficult and expensive.
It makes everyone realize and keep their money in the bank. Keep money in bonds. Now, many people ask, what's going on? When will it fall?
I'll give you a simple idea: right now, there are many bubbles. And people don't know which one will burst first. And people say, will gold burst or not? I'll tell you, all gold analysts in the world right now, whether it's in Thailand, like YLG, and many other people, are still saying that in the long term, gold is still good.
And wherever I go now, people ask what will happen to the price of gold. There are housewives who are trading gold. They say, what should we do? They are shocked and saddened. Are they stuck at the peak? Yes, they are stuck at the peak now because no one thought it would fall this much, this deep. Most people who bought it have already fallen below 4,000. They bought it before, except for those who were strong-willed and thought it might fall. They would think of waiting to buy. But until when?
Right now, the whole world is greatly challenging the true value of assets. Oil, gold. Viewers, please watch. Is the strait still closed? It's open, but there was another incident recently where a Singaporean ship was shot at. Another Singaporean ship was shot at. There is shooting. There is uncertainty, right?
According to the principle, oil should not fall so quickly, right? But it is falling because the whole world is trading with paper oil, not real oil, which can influence the market to go up or down. You can even profit from betting on it going down. Gold is the same. Most trading is paper trading, meaning there is no actual trading of gold or oil, but trading through paper. In US dollars.
This means the dollar is not strong solely because of its currency, but it entices people all over the world to hold dollars. Previously, if you wanted returns in America, you had to convert to dollars and hold stocks if you saw that stocks were good. So, you had to hold stocks in AI. Or if you saw that bank deposits were good because interest rates would rise, you would deposit money in dollar accounts. Or if you saw that American bonds offered very high profits and high returns, you would invest in US dollar bonds. All of these are incentives for buying and selling in America.
But before this, there was another factor: all oil trading in the world required US dollars. Now it's not like that anymore. The Middle East has started trading with China using digital yuan, and in the Asian region, they are starting to trade in local currencies. Russia, don't even mention it. Russia's dollar accounts have been frozen, and they are trading directly with China using their energy resources. This means that after Russia's accounts were frozen, the whole world started thinking about whether they could still hold dollars as reserves. The Middle East has also started shifting to trading in other currencies, causing the importance of the dollar to gradually decrease.
In the past, America invaded Venezuela because they traded oil with China in yuan. And then they fought against Iran because they traded with China in yuan. And they also traded oil. Therefore, these battles are actually currency wars that are happening right in front of us. We may see wars of weapons as we see on the scene, but the real war is a currency war.
Now, Dr. Wisit Ongpipatkul, who is at TNN, is a very good analyst. I've been watching him. He sees a relationship. He said that after looking at the charts, he saw a relationship with two things that go together. That is, the price of gold and the yield of US Treasury bonds, specifically the 10-year bonds. The charts are directly related. He doesn't look at other numbers. He said that gold will not rise until it reaches the point he estimates, which is after the US Treasury yield falls continuously until the yield reaches 5%. 5%. Not yet. Currently, it's 4.3%, according to the numbers I'm watching. This means it might fall further until it gets close to 5%. When it reaches that point, gold might move to another level. Because everyone considers such returns to be beyond the point of satisfaction, and everyone will buy again, giving gold a chance to rise again.
But like this, China is entering July. They will start opening a new gold market in Hong Kong. Of course, there has been trading before, but they are building a large stock in Hong Kong to be a gold trading hub. Singapore is trying to compete for this. And this means that physical gold, tangible gold, is here.
If you ask how analysts in Thailand, who trade gold like YLG, see it, they and the whole world see it the same way: First, the whole world is clearly divided into two sides. Asia is considered a developing region right now. Trade and production, even though they face trade barriers, they have changed their international reserves from US dollars, especially US bonds, by selling them off. They have shifted to holding gold, and gold is now higher than US bonds. And the purchasing power right now, I must say that during this downturn, central banks are buying non-stop and buying more. Viewers, you must pay attention to this point. This is the first factor. It means that on the side that is measuring the strength of whether the dollar will survive or gold will replace it, they are fighting. But the stake is that central banks hold real gold, not paper. In China, they are currently reducing paper trading to real gold. Why? Because if there is paper trading and no real gold, which is 9-10 times the value of real gold, it will cause the whole world that is fighting with gold to successfully suppress the price of gold. Because you buy with paper, it's like driving a car without a car, you only have the amount of paper that is assumed to be gold. And there has never been a delivery of gold. When there is a large quantity, it means the supply of assumed gold is more than the actual gold, which influences the gold market, right? Until eventually, people realize that no one can deliver gold. I'm asking you, right now the price is below 4,000, sometimes it drops, sometimes it bounces back. I ask, if someone has real gold, will they sell it, Khun Ke? If you, Khun Ke, bought it at a previous price of 4,500, 4,600, 4,700 dollars per ounce, would you sell it? No, professor. No. Central banks also don't sell. It's just paper circulating. No. But there is an advantage. Because some people estimate that if there is no paper gold, real gold will be worth tens of thousands of dollars. The price will go even higher because the demand is very high. What does high demand mean? At a price suppressed by paper, it is a buying opportunity for those who still have money left. And there probably isn't much left, viewers. But for those who still have it, don't worry. Hold on for a long time because the war is not over yet. But we see that central banks are buying non-stop. It depends on what you believe. If you believe that America will remain a superpower, then gold must lose. When they raised interest rates, gold fell, but how many times can it rise? 2-3 times? And with higher interest rates, America must decline. Lose the election? In November, which is only a few months away. This is where the real power struggle is happening. Professor Thanong Khanthong once appeared on the show and asked when paper gold would burst. Is that what he said? If it bursts where no one can deliver gold because there is very little real gold, then those who hold real gold are the ones who hold true value. Ah, this is why central banks are holding real assets. They are still holding them. And don't forget, US bonds, whose yields seem to be falling and demand seems to be increasing. But viewers, think about it: America still has to borrow non-stop and doesn't know how to solve this problem. So, in the end, the dollar, when you have no choice, the central bank will have to print money out of necessity. This will inevitably lead to an increase in the M2 money supply in the economic system. More money means devaluation. Gold will have to rise anyway. In the long term, this leads all institutions to believe that gold will continue to rise in the long term. But whether you believe it or not depends on your own pocket. For me, in the long term, gold will continue to go up, and it will go up a long way. If the timing of the fall comes, I can't say. No one knows. Because it is a war between real gold and paper gold that does not have real gold. Let's not even talk about that. Let's talk about oil. Khun Ke, do you know why oil is falling right now? Of course, many people say supply is coming out. I said not long ago that China was buying a massive amount of rare earth minerals. Now Apple has increased its prices because chips have become much more expensive. Much more expensive. Much more expensive. They are producing solar cells, and they are producing electric vehicles. All new energy. All new energy. This will overthrow petroleum, the oil group. This is a major global issue. One thing I see is that although many people say that the number of electric vehicles from China is increasing in Thailand, Khun Ke, they are buying a lot. But the total volume is still small. But I've noticed something, viewers, have you noticed? I'm in Bangkok. This year, I can see the sky is blue. Not gray like before. Before COVID, it was always gray and murky. This year, it's not COVID, but we are starting to see a blue sky. A blue sky. It's been like this for about 4-5 months. Electric trains are increasing. But we can see that the air has changed. The PM dust is also starting to decrease. Okay, because it's seasonal too. But we observe that eventually, it is very likely that the volume of oil production will gradually decrease in importance with other energy sources replacing it. This is very scary. I drive a BMW. This car is being sold. I tell viewers, tell viewers that if you have one, hold onto it. It's like this: I drive a BMW, and I'm selling it. I was shocked to just find out that they are reducing the price of new BMWs by hundreds of thousands per unit. What does this mean? It means a significant change is coming. If you have stock, you can't survive. This is just one type of car. But viewers, I see many new license plates in Bangkok. Electric cars are everywhere. Do you feel it, Khun Ke? Yes, professor. Just yesterday, there was news that Iraq is another country considering leaving OPEC. Yes. Because there is a problem with production quotas. If you have production quotas and you don't sell quickly, and in the future, if you don't sell quickly, you will have resources that will gradually lose value. Outdated. Oh, this is a very challenging issue. And it's about to burst, right? And this is what is important. Battles are happening on multiple fronts: gold, dollars, technology, rare earth, and electric energy replacing oil. These three fronts are battling against bubbles, measuring which one will burst first: stocks, bonds, debt, or commodity trading. It's very challenging. I don't know if viewers understand me, or if I'm just talking to myself. But I will say that it is an interesting opportunity for those who still have money left, which is probably not much anymore. But it's okay. For those who bought gold 3 years ago, they can still smile comfortably. Wait.