Transcription
Hello ladies and gentlemen, and welcome again to Syrian analysis. I'm your host Kalmasan. Here is Kwork. One of our friends is asking, where is Kwork? I was 30 seconds late, and you're correct. I mean, I live in Germany. I should be better integrated and, as Germans say, "English like on time." I usually try to start exactly at, uh, 17:00, uh, p.m. Central European time, 11:00 a.m. Eastern American time. I apologize for being late 30 seconds. However, I appreciate every single one of you guys, whether you're watching this on YouTube or on Rumble. And also, thank you so much, Red Access, for being present with us in the live chat and moderating the chat here.
Today is, um, the 31st of March, 2026, and we are going to speak about several issues. And those issues are very, very important. And those are indications on how Iran basically changed the course of the war with the United States and Israel. As we start, the kind thing to do from your side, guys, just hit the like button and subscribe to Syrian Analysis.
And I promise you, tomorrow we're going to have a great conversation with an Iranian who lives in the United States, and he has been under vicious attack from the monarchists, from the Pahlavi people in the United States. They doxed him, and, uh, they have threatened him many times. And he is not a pro-IRGC or pro, what they call, the Islamic regime in Iran. He is an Iranian citizen, and, uh, he is quite progressive. To my, when I watch his videos, I find him quite progressive, actually, and liberal. But we will listen to him tomorrow and understand why he has taken this position against the war in Iran, and why he didn't just become one of the Pahlavis who are celebrating still in the streets for the war against their own country. I think this is going to be a great conversation with him tomorrow, guys, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern American time and 5:00 p.m. Central European time.
And also, on Thursday, we're going to have Hussein. Hussein is from the south of Lebanon, and he has been covering the war in Lebanon for quite some time. And, uh, since you guys asked me to also contact or connect with people on the ground in Lebanon and in the south, on Thursday, Hussein is going to come to the show as well. And on Friday, it's going to be, of course, with our dear friend Tav Chamar. So, it's a packed week.
However, today, in my opinion, is going to be extraordinary, just like yesterday, because there are really, um, increasing indications that Iran has used, um, a very effective strategy after the first few strikes against the leadership in Iran, the decapitation and the destruction of vital, let's say, infrastructure in Tehran, in Shiraz, and in many other places. And yesterday, the joint Israeli-American strike, by the way, on Iran has killed an Armenian citizen. And today was his funeral. And as you may know, Iran hosts a big Armenian community as well, and Armenians have been well integrated into the Iranian society. So the Americans and the Israelis are not sparing anyone. And now they are coming also after the Armenian and the Christian community in Iran. Something that on this channel, we report and we expose and we reveal these war crimes committed by the Americans.
So, if you're new here, guys, just for you to know, my name is Kalmasan. I do this five times per week, between Monday to Friday. One live stream per day, one around one hour. And we are here very critical of the US foreign policy and its approach toward the countries in West Asia or in the Middle East and in other regions. And I myself have been, and I am, a citizen of Syria, and we have come under vicious and brutal, multi-layered, and multi-faceted attack from the United States. First, it was a proxy war, and then it was an economic warfare, and they have devastated and destroyed my country. And therefore, I don't like also the Americans to do the same thing to the Iranians and to other people, and especially also the Palestinians, who have paid the biggest price, in my opinion, for the American empire and their friend and ally in the region, Israel.
So today, we will start, guys, with a very important article, in my opinion, why Iran could emerge more dangerous after the war. And this is an article, by the way, published by the Financial Times by Gideon Rachman. I think he's a Jewish writer, but he is, uh, giving us some glimpse and great explanation why Iran could basically emerge stronger and more dangerous, but more dangerous to the Americans and to the Israelis after this war.
So, Donald Trump, guys, has a perverse genius for driving American adversaries to discover new forms of leverage over the United States. Iran has now finally carried through on a long-standing threat and, in effect, closed the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, just like Beijing, will have been delighted to discover how quickly it can inflict economic pain on the West. But this is not on the West, by the way. It's on the United States. And we're going to show you guys today why many countries in the West are withdrawing their support for the, uh, US war of aggression against Iran. And today, we have more news coming from France and Italy.
So, Iran's exploitation of its control over the strait means that the Islamic Republic can now aspire to do far more than merely survive the US-Israeli assault. It has a real prospect of emerging from the war in a strengthened international position. So, guys, Iran is not merely fighting on nowadays. It, it is also demonstrated that it can inflict real damage on its Gulf neighbors. He means the American bases in these Gulf neighbors, right? And also the economies of these countries who, um, are suffering a lot due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But the context is important here, that these Gulf countries, for example, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, into a lesser extent now Qatar, but Kuwait and Bahrain and other players in the region, for example, Jordan, they have played direct and indirect roles in the preparation and the execution of this attack against the Iranians. Whether they like it or not, they are active players in this because their territories are being used by the Americans to not only fly over their skies but also use these military installations to wage offensive war against Iran itself. So the Iranians have inflicted heavy damage on these Persian Gulf monarchies, as he mentions Saudi Arabia and UAE, placing a big question mark over their long-term futures. So we're not only speaking about the damage now, but also what is the future of these countries and what is the long-term destiny and future of these monarchies who have built enormous economies in the past two to three decades on the basis that these countries are stable and they can attract lots of investments, and especially American investments.
So crucially, [snorts] the Strait of Hormuz also provides the Islamic Republic with a significant potential future, significant potential future revenue stream that could prove extremely valuable. Imagine, guys, that Iran is now charging, this is of course reported or allegedly, they're charging $2 million on each ship to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz. And those ships are of course belonging to the countries, [snorts] uh, who didn't participate in this over-aggression against Iran. So, $2 million per ship. In normal times, guys, about 140 ships a day make the journey in the Strait of Hormuz. So a crude calculation suggests that if Iran succeeds in setting up a toll booth on the strait, it could add billions of dollars a month to the state coffers. So this is something that the Iranians, uh, this leverage, guys, Iranians didn't have before the war, right? Before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, I mean, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed due to the war of aggression against Iran. So Iran didn't have this leverage against the United States, but the American aggression against them has given them the opportunity to have this leverage. And this is what the premise of this article, that the author is saying that Donald Trump, with his great genius, basically, of course, being sarcastic, he's giving his opponents and rivals, for example, in Iran and in China, the opportunity to have and or to gain new leverage and new cards to play with the United States, something that they didn't have in the past. But due to the miscalculations of Trump and his team, who are completely compromised nowadays by the Zionist lobby and by the Zionist donors and also those so-called influences surrounding him, due to their stupidity and due to their miscalculations and whispering in the ears of Donald Trump to go into this war against Iran, they have given Iran a leverage that they didn't have only few weeks ago.
So this is something that we have to take into account that nowadays Iran is not only chopping the economy of, uh, the global economy through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but once the war is over in the near future, this could go for a few weeks or few months still. But if, if when this war is over, guys, Iran will continue, um, taxing, basically, the the ships that are passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This means, um, this will be a bigger burden on the Persian Gulf monarchies, who they want to send also their ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Plus, this will give Iran an enormous wealth, billions of dollars per year in the coffers, which will make the biting sanctions of the United States toothless, basically. Because imagine, in the past 40 years, Iran being under severe sanctions and severe economic warfare against, they're one of the most brutal in the world, right? And despite that, they were capable of building a nation-state, a strong army, and a deterrent posture against the Americans. So imagine if the Iranians now have extra billions of dollars per year. Where are they going to invest this money? Of course, this money will go into the state coffers, and this will, uh, give them the opportunity to reconstruct their country, and plus it will give them the, um, the extra money to, um, modernize their military. Imagine with this, I don't want to call it a modest, but compared to the Americans, which have they have like a trillion-dollar budget per year, right? A trillion-dollar budget per year, and they were incapable of removing this, what they call, the regime in Iran with drones and ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles and certain tactics that we're going to discuss today. By the way, this is going to be brilliant. I will give you some military explanations for this. Imagine after all these suppression of the rise of Iran, Iran is still capable of matching the United States and Israel jointly. So what if, and what happens when Iran, Iran's hands are freer? What happens when Iran has more flow of money? That's why the Persian Gulf monarchies are terrified because for them, they see Iran as the existential threat. This is how they see. This is how they see it. It doesn't mean they're correct. This is how they perceive the situation in West Asia or in the Middle East. That's why they have put all their eggs in the basket of the Americans, and they want to normalize ties with Israel to counter away the Israelis. But this model has also proven to these Persian Gulf monarchies that it is not, uh, so effective for to preserve their security, because the Americans have shown also the practice of the Americans in the region has shown that they prioritize the Israeli security over the security of all the Persian Gulf monarchies. So they are really in a difficult situation, let's say, and all both ways are, um, in my opinion, will lead that these Persian Gulf monarchies would be either being under the umbrella of Iran or under the umbrella of the Americans. And for now, they have chosen America.
I, I was talking to a friend the other day in the Emirates, and this friend, I'm not going to disclose his nationality, but he has a very senior media position in a very big media outlet in the Emirates, and he has a lot of connections to the media elite and some of the diplomatic elite in the Emirates. And he was telling me that the people here are very terrified about, um, the victory of Iran. And I asked him, why would they be terrified by Iran, but not by the United States? So, Kwork, people are saying, Kwork, guys, just when you start typing my name, I would think that there is something wrong in my technicalities. And I asked him, why would they be terrified by, um, Iranians and not by the Americans? And he said, there is a general perception here that their security is best served under the United States as a superpower, and they see Shia Iran as an existential threat against them. This is how they see. Therefore, they are doubling down on this relationship nowadays, unfortunately speaking, and they have put their countries in a very, in my opinion, difficult situation that this is increasingly becoming a zero-sum game for them. If Iran emerges victorious, and if the Americans go into this, uh, ground invasion using one of these Persian Gulf monarchies, I'm quite sure that one or few of these Persian Gulf monarchies, the ruling elites in these countries, would be completely obliterated. So, it's a really difficult situation for them as well.
Um, the United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said that this would be illegal and unacceptable. So, so taxing the ships, according to Marco, is illegal and unacceptable, of course, for him. Going to war and destroying other countries and impoverishing them and destroying their social fabric and indiscriminately killing over 70 to 80,000 civilians in Gaza. Those are all legal and acceptable. But charging and taxing a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, oh my god, this is like unacceptable, right? For the American standards. So the question is, but what can the United States do about it? The discouraging answer is, of course, the author is pro-America. So for him, this is very discouraging, is that there may be no military solution to this problem, and the only, uh, solution could be basically is a regime change in Tehran. The US is currently dispatching ground troops to the region, but the seizure, a seizure of Khark Island, which Trump has floated in a recent interview with the Financial Times, would not necessarily solve the strait problem. In fact, Western military planners are very pessimistic, my friends, about the chances of reopening the strait by military means alone. If you check the geography of the area and the technology available to the Iranians, including, as you can see, the drones that can be operated many miles from the shoreline, for example, mean that even naval escorts cannot guarantee the safety of commercial traffic. So that leaves a negotiated agreement with Iran as the most realistic option. This is what we have been saying since the beginning of this war against Iran. But Iran is likely to demand a very high price because now they have the leverage in their hands, right?
So, the Iranian government has its eye on potentially game-changing future revenues, as well as as well as a means of dispensing favors or punishment to countries all over the world. Trump, the self-styled master negotiator, is floundering. He recently, by the way, admitted that he finds the Iranian negotiation, negotiation style very strange because he's not used to negotiate. He's he's used to bully and dictate, and now that the Iranians are matching them in the military war, he finds it very strange that the Iranians are raising their demands. So the previous week, Donald Trump suggested that me and Ayatollah might jointly manage this trade. Of course, he doesn't know what he's talking about because Ayatollah or anyone in Iran would definitely and 100% reject this, this demand. But some people have interpreted it as a bid to split potential tolls with Tehran, but the Iranians seem uninterested, of course.
So this is the most important paragraph, in my opinion, in the, in the article, by the way. It seems that Iran's neighbors are horrified at the idea of Iran emerging from the war with practical control over Gulf energy exports, as well as a new stream of income. There is much speculation that the UAE and Saudi Arabia could join the conflict rather than accept that outcome. But those countries are also well aware that Iranian strikes on their oil installations or desalination plants could wreck long-term havoc on their economies and societies. They may ultimately decide that paying protection money to Iran is a better option than escalation. Actually, it is better for them to shake hands with Iran. Iran is an Islamic country. They are also Islamic countries. They are neighbors here. It is, in, in my opinion, the Israelis and the Americans have succeeded through a long-term indoctrination, PR propaganda campaigns in the region to brainwash an entire generation of Muslims, let's say, specifically from the, um, Sunni countries. I think there is nothing wrong in saying that that these people would see the Shia as a greater threat to them than the Americans or the Israelis or any other imperial power in the region. To the extent that we have, I have seen with my own eyes, like countless number of, uh, videos in Syria, in other places, especially in Syria. They have, they have propagandized and indoctrinated an entire generation of people to viciously hate against the Shia and the Alawites. Like for them, a Shan and Alawite are someone who should be killed immediately. And this type of, um, teachings to younger generation who grew up nowadays, and one of them has become the president of Syria, self-selected president, right? Like Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. This model has succeeded. And this rift that they have caused in the region, basically, which is a Shia and Sunni conflict, has led to a paralyzed region. Because imagine if the, what they call, the Islamic, um, have come to terms together and they learned how to coexist. This region has enormous wealth, my friend, that any region in the world and any country in the world and any rising or regional or superpower would wish to have these resources, plus the geographical location. Imagine if these countries find the minimum level of understanding how to coexist, and they brought their economies into integration, like they integrated their economies together. All these countries are rich in fuel, and then you have, in the Levant, countries like Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, for example, they are on the shores, on the Mediterranean. Those are beautiful places as well. And you have all these, uh, the Red Sea, you have the Strait of Hormuz, you have the Persian Sea, you have the, the, the, the, all, all the maritime and road intersections are passing through this region. Imagine if these countries learned how to coexist, and you had a generation of rulers in these countries who preferred to come together in this region and become relevant in the international scene. This region would have become stronger than Europe. All these countries, the 27 countries in Europe, they would be nothing compared to if Saudi Arabia and Iran and Iraq and Syria and Lebanon and Palestine and Jordan and Bahrain and Kuwait and the UAE. All these countries just coexisted and integrated their economies together, and they have built their own schools, universities, tech sector, and, uh, they have, they would give their people job opportunities. They would alleviate or, you know, they have social status. Bring education, bring philosophy, bring science, bring tech, and teach these people what it they need to learn to become competent and relevant. Instead of teaching them books that go back in history 1,000 year or 500 year and try to implement these books to the current time, the 21st century, right? Imagine if this happened. This region would be competing, competing with countries like Russia. It's, it's, it's not an exaggeration. They would not probably become like the United States, but they would definitely become like Russia. They would become very, very relevant on the international scene, and all the countries, Russia, China, and the United States would be, um, running and and and trying to create friendly relationships with them and benefit from them and listen to their demands and requests and respect their interests. But instead, due to the fragmentation in the region, why would any country or any rising or any regional or any superpower respect these countries any longer? Imagine Donald Trump is talking about MBS like he didn't, imagine kissing my ass. This is the type of mentality, uh, that prevails in the United States and in other countries because these countries are so weak and they're so dependent on them. That's the only reason, in my opinion.
So, um, in this case, guys, this week, something very important happened. As you may know, the, uh, Iranians have hit, uh, recon, reconnaissance, how do we call it? It's the radar aircraft that they hit in Saudi Arabia, and this was, in my opinion, a big game-changer, of course. And this is just a short report for us to understand what has, uh, what happened basically in this case.
[Video clip plays]
"One month into the war, thousands of American troops are arriving in the Middle East this weekend ahead of a potential ground invasion of Iran. The deployment comes as US service members stationed in Saudi Arabia were injured in an Iranian attack on a base there. NBC's Raph Sanchez is in Doha, Qatar with more. Raph, what's the latest there?"
"Yeah, Willie. Around 3,500 more US Marines and sailors have..."
"That's 13,000 new soldiers have arrived to the Middle East."
"Now arrived here in the Middle East. That's according to Central Command. They came aboard the USS Tripoli, which is an amphibious assault ship that has been sailing to the region from Japan. There are now, Willie, some 50,000 US troops here in the Middle East, and that is intensifying the big question: Will President Trump put American boots on the ground in Iran? The president has not ruled that out, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday said he believes US war aims can be achieved without sending in ground troops. And all the while, Willie, this regional war is expanding further. The Iranian-backed Houthi militants in..."
[End video clip]
And, uh, this is Yemen, by the way. They have joined the war against the Israelis, and they, uh, I think they fired one ballistic missile for now. Please correct me if I'm wrong, against Israel. And notice how every time they speak about the allies of Iran, they call them the Iran-backed Houthi militants. They don't say the same thing about Israel, like the US-backed, I don't know, Zionist militants or something like this. Language of dehumanizing other people and just portraying them like they are, um, just proxies of other countries. You know, they're not doing their bidding. What they're doing is basically the bidding of the Iranians because for them, the people of the region don't have any agency. They don't know how to think for themselves, and they don't know how to serve their own interests. Therefore, they always rely on someone else. And this time, these are the Iran-backed Houthis. Those are the Ansar Allah movement. Those are not Houthis. The leader of the Ansar Allah movement is Abd al-Malik al-Houthi. Doesn't mean that they are, uh, it's not a Saudi Arabia named after al- this family, basically. This is, uh, the Yemeni rebels who have taken over power in in Yemen and they are managing it, and they have created a strong army, basically. Americans went against them, and they failed to obliterate them, right? Only recently. So these journalists are so dishonest, in my opinion.
[Video clip continues]
"...Yemen joining the conflict for the first time yesterday, firing missiles at Israel, and that is raising fears that they may resume their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. Now, if that happens, it could send oil prices even higher, with the Iranians blocking the Strait of Hormuz while the Houthis threatening the Red Sea. Will it?"
[End video clip]
So now, guys, he will go to, uh, the other clown, Zelensky, and Zelensky will reveal to us a very important secret here. Sarcasm.
[Video clip continues]
"Full-on regional war, Raph, with the Trump administration focused, as you say, on Iran. The war..."
[End video clip]
Look at this journalist, by the way. He's reading from the teleprompter. Even the commentary he's making now, after what the journalist said. If you look at his eyes and the pupils, he's reading.
[Video clip continues]
"...Ukraine and Russia continues now into its fourth year. You sat down exclusively with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Saturday. What stood out to you?"
[End video clip]
Mhm. Tell us what Zelensky thinks about this. That's very important, like to to learn from Zelensky.
[Video clip continues]
"Well, Willie, he told us that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran to help it target US forces here in the Middle East. And he gave one very specific example. He said, in the days before Iran attacked a US air base in Saudi Arabia, wounding several service members, Russian satellites took images of that air base, not once, not twice, but three times."
[End video clip]
So, the claim from Zelensky that the Russians have shared satellite images with the Iranians in order to hit this, uh, AX or this spying, um, plane. But he doesn't have any evidence for it now. He's asked directly, what is his evidence, basically, and he doesn't know anything. He just says it's in the interest of Russia.
[Video clip continues]
"If they make images once, they are preparing. If they make images the second time, it's like simulation. The third time, it's been that one, two days, they will attack."
"You believe Russia is actively helping Iran target American forces in the Middle East right now?"
"I think that Russia, in Russian interest..."
[End video clip]
It's in Russian interests. And I not believe, I know that they share, uh, information.
So, he knows, he doesn't share evidence, but he believes that it's in the interest of Russia. I would say something about this, and that is, all this talk about Russian support and giving intelligence support to Iran could be all true, by the way, 100%. I, I believe that the Russians have an interest in degrading the power of the United States. Right? At the end of the day, although they cooperate together in other places, but it, it would be naive to assume that the Russians would not like to see American finances and assets bleeding in the region, just like the Americans celebrate, uh, Russian assets and money bleeding in Ukraine. However, there is something very important here, and that is the agency. This is always the same thing. It is Iran-backed Houthis. This is how they call them because the Yemenis, for them, do not have agency, do not have a brain, do not have a strategy, do not have a capacity, do not know what they're doing. They're just following other people's instructions. Complete dehumanization of them. And then when they speak about Iran, Iran who is giving this support to the Houthis, according to them, at the same time is receiving its support from Russia. So, but not for the Russians, in this narrative that they're trying to normalize. Iranians cannot really hate American assets in the region. And this is, in my opinion, an imperial mindset that these people cannot truly grasp the fact that Iranians have developed a very capable ballistic and long-range or medium-range ballistic missile program. They cannot really grasp the fact that Iran has a hypersonic missile. Israel doesn't have a hypersonic missile. For them, knowledge is very important, and they want to deprive their enemies of the knowledge, and they want to deprive them of the right to have that knowledge. Therefore, they cannot really accept and grasp the fact that Iranians have the knowledge and have the information and have the intelligence and have the capability to hit American assets in the region. For them, all these countries are backward, barbaric people who deserve to be destroyed and killed. In their eyes, this is the, this is the truth. Therefore, these people don't have agency, don't have capability, don't have the brains to carry out such operations. That's why the Russians are giving them this information. This is the most heinous and, in my opinion, um, it's a disgusting narrative to be honest with you. And they have done the same thing with Syria and other countries. We are the people. We cannot make anything, and we cannot innovate anything, and we cannot understand anything. And they're the ones who have to come and tell us how we can govern our own countries. This is the imperial mindset that is very, uh, disgusting to me. And I don't accept it. I reject it, and I push against it. Iranians definitely have intelligence capabilities. They have their assets in the Persian Gulf. They have their people even locating the location and the housing of the American and CIA officers, basically, in the hotels, in their villas, and in their offices, and they're hitting them with drones, direct strikes. Iranians have their intelligence. Of course, I'm not denying that the Russians may have may be assisting them, but trying to take away the agency of Iran and put it all on Russia is so dishonest, in my opinion, because they want to tell the people that those Iranians, those barbaric people there, those mullahs, those Islamic, you know, this stuff that they speak about, those are crazy people. They cannot do it for by themselves. It should be the Russians, right? And these journalists sit in front of a clown like Zelensky, whose own army relies heavily on every American, British, German direct support. Even the European and American operatives are on the ground firing their own air defenses and missiles against Russia. They don't, they don't, they don't reveal these things. They don't report about it. But when it comes to an enemy country, between quotation marks, they always try to do the same thing. I truly feel disgusted watching these type of journalists. I'm being very honest with you. I don't know how, what they feel and how they feel sitting and not challenging Zelensky or asking, uh, serious questions or reporting seriously. What, what kind, what kind, what was this, uh, website that I have played? It was MSNBC, right? Yeah, this was from the NBC News. So, who works for the NBC News or MSNBC or CNN? Unless you are like them, unless you have the same mentality, who works for them nowadays? BBC, Fox News. You really have to be a bad person, in my opinion, to, um, to work for them with a good conscience. I don't see it any other way.
We have a very important article, my friends, published in, uh, Responsible Statecraft. And this is the main premise of today's live stream, and that is, Iran wipes out US-Israeli radars and sensors, and by doing so, is changing the course of war. Um, a month into the US military, uh, campaign against Iran, Israel's wanted air defense systems is showing its limits. Just in the past 10 days, major cities including Tel Aviv, Deir al-Balah, and Arad sustained significant damage when Iranian missiles successfully evaded Israel's network of interceptors. This is a very good article. It explains the, uh, military, uh, defensive capabilities of, uh, Israel and how they were severely damaged by blinding their early detectors in the Persian Gulf monarchies. The more worrisome reality is that gaps in Israel's air defenses may be detection rather than interception. And those detection failures resulting from damage to the radars and sensors that underly the integrated air defense networks shared by the US, Israel, and Gulf partners. If true, the implications would be dire. Operating without the eyes that the American military relies on to identify and mitigate threats, US forces and assets would be much more vulnerable than previously understood. Until recently, Israel's layered air defense system was seen as nearly impenetrable. The first layer, known as the Iron Dome. Many people confuse between these layers, by the way. They all speak about the Iron Dome. Iron Dome is aimed at protecting Israel's cities and infrastructure against short-range rockets from Hezbollah, Hamas, for example. Though the Iron Dome stood up under significant pressure in the days and weeks after the October 7th attack, it is less useful against a much stronger Iranian adversary armed with ballistic missiles and long-range drones. To protect against the medium and longer-range cruise and ballistic missiles that pose the greatest threat in the current war, Israel has relied on three additional air defense layers. The first one is David's Sling, Arrow 2 and 3, and US-provided THAAD system. So we have three layers. The first is David's Sling. The second is the Arrow 2 and 3, and the third is the US-provided THAAD systems. While the David's Sling intercepts missiles inside the Earth's atmosphere, the Arrow system targets missiles outside that atmosphere, making them much more effective against ballistic missiles. Israel has indeed burned through much of its air interceptor stockpile. Imagine that some reports are suggesting that as much as 80% of Israel's most advanced air defense munitions were expended, expended in the first 3 weeks of the war. So this forced Israel, basically, to rely increasingly on other systems to intercept and destroy the upcoming missiles. And this rapid exhaustion suggests Israel's defenses were more fragile than they seemed, and clearly not set up to defend against the volume of attacks that Iran is now able to mount. A second factor in Iran's successes is the country's use of a large number of drones and cluster munitions that are able to swarm an air defense network and overwhelm its capacity. No air interceptor system is perfect. So Iran's ability to increase the number of munitions confronting Israeli defenses could explain its higher hit rate compared to past conflicts. But Iran used similar weapons in the 12-day war to less effect. So this too is an unsatisfying rationale. The problem with these initial explanations is that they are too narrow and focused on shortcomings inside Israel. The more likely possibility, however, is that observed vulnerabilities in Israel's air defense systems originate not within Israel, but outside of Israel, in the Israeli air defense network that spans the Middle East region. Although Israel owns and even produces many of its own air defense systems and munitions, some of course jointly with the United States, its air defense network is integrated with that of the United States, allowing the two countries to share intelligence and data from sensors and radars across the region. Damage to this network of sensors and radars would fatally undermine Israel's air defenses and those of the United States. Reports based on available satellite imagery suggest that at least 10 US radar sites in the Middle East have been hit by Iranian drones since the start of the war. Though the loss of a single radar would not disable the whole air defense network, the loss of 10 or more radars or sensing systems would significantly degrade the US ability to to identify and respond to incoming threats. More concerning is the apparent inability of the US to protect its own Middle Eastern bases. Like last week, reports surfaced that US personnel are no longer able to leave and work on many military bases in the Gulf region. Imagine forcing them to move to hotels or alternative locations because the bases themselves are too vulnerable to attacks by Iranian drones and missiles. But in the most recent incident that we have discussed in the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, the Iranian missiles and drones injured 12 military service members and damaged several planes, including a rare E3 early warning aircraft. Um, and the author says this target of the E3 aircraft would surely have acted, the US would surely have acted to protect it, even with scarce interceptors, had it detected the threat in time. So they didn't even, they couldn't even detect the threat on time because their eyes were blinded. Since most of major bases in the Middle East that host US forces also house or are covered by advanced air defense systems, the apparent vulnerability of these locations suggests a problem far larger than a lack of sufficient interceptor missiles or counter-drone systems. So what is the problem? While the Pentagon has spent much time talking about magazine depth, uh, and the need to rebuild munition stockpiles, the more urgent post-requirement may instead be repairing and hardening the US network of ground-based sensors and radars on which US defense air defense relies in the Middle East and elsewhere. I think this is too early to make such assessments because, in my opinion, we don't know how much the United States will have presence in the region after the war anyways. Repairing advanced radars and sensors is time-consuming, sorry, repairing advanced radars and sensors is time-consuming, expensive, and complex, and the war with Iran seems to have fundamentally challenged the US approach to air defense, especially its heavy reliance on ground-based systems, and suggests that US air defense capabilities are not ready for modern warfare. The problem is therefore strategic, not merely technical. So the Pentagon will need to rapidly speed up its shift toward space and satellite-based systems for tracking and interception.
So the author is giving them some advice, um, to the, uh, US and probably the private contractors to now try to militarize space. I want to say one thing about this. I think the military aspect is quite clear that the Iranians have hit the eyes that the Americans can detect the missiles coming from Iran against Israel. But the main issue which exposed the the role of these Persian Gulf monarchies is not that they are pro-American. The real issue is that it has exposed that they are protecting Israel. If the Persian Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, like Kuwait, like Bahrain, like the UAE have accepted for the Americans to build early detector systems on their soil and integrate these technologies with the Israeli air defenses in Israel. So practically, these Persian Gulf monarchies are not only allies with the United States, they're allies with Israel. They're allies with Israel. And they have allowed the Americans to build this system to protect Israel on their own soil. So that explains a lot. That explains a lot. That explains a lot the position of these Persian Gulf monarchies from Hezbollah in the 2006 war, in the recent war in 2024, and now in 2026. It explains their position from Syria. It explains their position from Iraq in 2003. It explains their position about every actor, state and non-state actor in the region who, um, tried to create a model of resistance against the American, um, primacy and supremacy in the region. And these Persian Gulf monarchies, by the way, guys, some people may think that they are just like anti-Shia forces. That's not true. They're just pro-American and pro-Israeli forces. This is what this situation has exposed, right? And I have evidence for it. In the past, who, who were the resistance groups against the Americans and the Israelis before the rise of Hezbollah, before the rise of Hamas, before the rise of Islamic Jihad? The main resistance against the Americans were the Pan-Arabists. They were people like Gamal Abdel Nasser. They were people like Hafez al-Assad. They were people like, despite all our differences against these people personally or politically or whatever, I'm just talking about the ideology now. And in every, in every, um, event in the region, which any of these countries based the PLO, I said, in any of these countries, in any of these places, when any of these actors, state or non-state actors, tried to resist, the, the Saudis and the Emirates and the Qataris were against them, especially the Saudis. So the issue is not because these powers are Shia. It's the, these countries have destroyed the Pan-Arabist movements in the region. And when you destroy the nationalist movements, or in some aspects, they also destroy the socialist and communist resistance groups against the Americans and the Israelis. When, when you destroy these groups in cooperation with the Israelis and the Americans, then who is going to replace them? It's going to be more Islamic groups, more religious groups. And now they are fighting against the religious groups. But these religious groups, or these groups who identify as Shia, for example, this is more dangerous to fight against them because this becomes like a regional sectarian war, and this plays into the hands of the Israelis. Again, I'm very sorry to say this, but this, uh, Persian Gulf monarchies have exposed themselves big times that first, they cannot become independent because they don't have the mentality and the aspiration to become independent, and secondly, they have exposed themselves as very much dependent on the United States, and also they are tacitly and openly allies with Israel. And unless there is a serious talk in these countries for a policy change, nothing will change in the region because at every historical juncture, you will see these countries basically bullying one or more of the rivals or the enemies of the United States. To the extent that Qatar and Saudi Arabia have spent tens of billions, tens of billions of dollars to destroy Syria. And who have they supported? They have supported ISIS. They have supported Al-Qaeda. They have supported, they have supported Jaish al-Islam, and all these different shades and names of, uh, groups. And why would they do that? Who tasked them to do that? And why would they destroy Syria? What has Syria done to them? Syria has done nothing to them. Nothing. Zero. What Syria has done is that it has resisted the Americans and the Israelis. So why would the Saudis and the Qataris spend tens of billions of dollars? Because they were tasked by the Americans. The Syrian war has exposed a lot. But I think this time, in the Iranian case, it has also exposed the, how practically, how practically they support Israel through by allowing the Americans to build their, their early detectors and satellites and and the technologies they need to intercept the missiles coming from Iran. So there is no more discussion, in my opinion, or debate about it. Countries or the ruling families have they have they have chosen their path. And the opposite path, which is represented by Iran, is at the current moment looks like everything could change. But I'm just being very realistic now. The other side is not losing the war. The Iranians and their allies are not losing the war. Now they have received huge blows and setbacks in the past two years, but this war against Iran has changed all the calculus in the region. And in my opinion, they should be terrified. They should be terrified by the very possible and highly possible victory of Iran. Not that Iran will take revenge, but they will have to live under an Iranian umbrella. And this is the, the rule of, uh, the world. This type of strategic wars, after the, in the aftermath of such strategic wars, one or more or few, they either get more weakened or they get more stronger or play more active role in the region. And Iran, after this war, and after the leverage they have established themselves through the Strait of Hormuz, will definitely establish themselves as a stronger player in the region. And when they become a stronger player, it will be on the expense of other players which had previously stronger presence, and that is the Americans. And once the American presence is weakened, the position of these Persian Gulf monarchies will be weakened as well. [Laughter] Sorry, but they have chosen this path. The same way we say this is a war of choice, this is a position of choice of this Persian Gulf monarchies to be aligned with the Americans in this case.
So now, some people may ask, why are the American forces performing so badly, so poorly in Iran? This is another brilliant article I found in on Substack for, I think this guy is an Israeli, Shiel Ben-Arie, but I think his explanation is great, and it, it gives us a lot of, uh, understanding of why the Americans are failing in, in Iran. Let me just bring this like this, bigger for you too. Excuse me.
So, Iran is bleeding America with 50,000 drones and century-old sea mines, while the US burns through 2 million interceptors and watches oil prices detonate. It is the inevitable result of building the most expensive, most bloated, most bureaucratically obese military in human history, and then picking a fight with an enemy who learned war the hard way. The consequences of a military establishment that grew fat, slow, and stupifyingly expensive, during three decades of uncontested dominance, while its adversaries spent those same decades learning, adapting, and figuring out exactly how to make America pay the maximum price for the minimum Iranian investment. The US military built a Ferrari. Iran brought a swarm of motorbikes and a bag of nails, and right now the motorbikes are winning. The US military currently spends more than a trillion dollars a year. It employs roughly 1.3 million active duty personnel. Its procurement bureaucracy takes an average of seven years to field a new weapon system. Its F-35 program alone costs over $2 trillion across its 94-year life cycle. Enough to fund the entire Iranian defense budget for over a century. We're talking only about the F-35's budget across 94-year life cycle cost $2 trillion, which is enough to fund the entire Iranian defense budget for over a century, 100 years. It is also losing to a country that has been under crippling sanctions for for decades, that operates Soviet-era equipment, and that fields its most effective weapons, the Shia drone, using navigation chips and engine parts sourced from consumer electronics, consumer electronics catalogs. Iran didn't beat the United States with superior technology. It beat it with superior thinking about how to use inferior technology against a bloated, slow-moving giant that has forgotten how to adapt. 13 US military bases across the Gulf are now described in the New York Times reports as all but uninhabitable. Radar arrays destroyed, communications, communications nodes knocked out, maintenance facilities gutted, troop housing repeatedly struck. Thousands of American service members have been dispersed from their bases into hotels, office buildings, and improvised shelters across the Gulf States. These bases were not hardened against the threat that Iran had openly advertised it would use for many years. So, the big five contractors, those are the private, uh, military-industrial complex contractors, by the way, who built the weapons for the United States Army, have spent the past decade returning.
capital to shareholders rather than expanding manufacturing capacity. More than 54% of Pentagon's trillion dollar budget flows to private companies. Those companies produce extraordinary things, just not enough of them fast enough or advices that make sense in a drone saturated battle battle space. Strategic defeat accumulates transaction by transaction until the ledger becomes undeniable.
Event strategy in Epic Query has been consistent and devastatingly simple. Make America pay in its most expensive currencies. Missiles, oil prices, strategic overstretch, and the lives of soldiers sleeping in hotels for the cheapest possible Iranian investment. And it is working. A country that has lived under sanctions for four decades, fought proxy wars across the region, and been in continuous strategic competition with the United States for 40 years, didn't [clears throat] stumble into an effective strategy. It built one deliberately from hard experience and bitter loss.
America, by contrast, spent those same decades building a military optimized for the war it wanted to fight: the glorious high-tech short decisive conflict rather than the grinding cheap asymmetric war that an adaptive adversary would actually impose. The United States is losing in Iran because it built the wrong military, stalked it with the wrong weapons, left its soldiers in unhardened bases against a threat it knew was coming, and picked a fight with an enemy that had studied it more carefully than it had studied itself. The Iranians are lean, adaptive, and fighting a war calibrated precisely to America's institutional weaknesses. The US is fat, slow, and still waiting for the US for the war it was designed for.
I think we have to ask Pete Texas to uh send the military industrial contractors for some training. We watched his video recently. He was bashing the officers in the in the US military before the war against Iran and telling them that there there will be courses and trainings to um because the military has become a place of many obese soldiers and officers. Maybe they should decrease the obesity of their hardware and adapt to the modern warfare tactiques that the enemies of the United States have adopted. um as an adaptation basically after the United States has emerged as a superpower after the fall of the Soviet Union and its heavy reliance on a very heavy hardware heavy hard to move hard to replace hard to produce and uh hard to repair and it cost a lots of money and the enemies of the United States in this case they have built um a very effective tactique and strategy and they have imposed on the United States a type of warfare an asymmetrical warfare um that it goes against the strategy of the United precise attack finish the job in a matter of a few days. So what the Iranians have done to the Americans, they have drawn the Americans into a battlefield of their liking and uh Americans are losing this war. What can I say?
But Donald Trump is uh of course uh as you may know guys he's very genius and now he's been humiliating and trying to attack his own allies because uh as Tanzu said uh 2,000 years ago the moment you feel your strategy isn't working well uh smear and attack your allies. That would be a brilliant strategy. I'm sure that that was Szu who gave this advice to Donald Trump and uh he just posted this on his so-called to social. He said all those countries that can't get jet fuel because of the straight of hormones like the United Kingdom which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you. Number one, buy from the US. We have plenty. And number two, build up some delayed courage. Go to the straight and just take it. You will have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The USA won't be there to help you anymore. Just like you weren't there for us. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil. [laughter]
I will just ask everyone in this chat to stay uh respectable for everyone as uh I don't like personal attacks guys in in in in in the chat. What are you guys talking about? Is Professor Merendi was hit? Let me check. Who says uh rest in peace Muhammad Mandi? No, there is nothing. Let me check. Okay, so he was on Nemo moments ago. Thank you. Thank you very much for confirming because I was uh terrified that they have killed him. Okay, he's 3 minutes ago. I just posted. I'm so sorry. Say mandi. I'm so sorry. Some some some people just made uh some comments here. Um I will ask kindly our moderator to just block the people who are just here to smear. I I'm I'm I really I really want everyone to to feel like they can um engage with other people and talk and debate and discuss. Guys, whatever is your political opinion, hate me, like me. Really, it's just I want people to have the place to they can express their opinions, you know. I I'm not asking for much. Seriously. Thank you. red access.
So Donald Trump is humiliating all his uh allies and now he's telling them that he could basically just uh stop the war in Iran uh even if the straight off remains largely closed which I don't believe he's going to do that anyways but uh he is humiliating for example his Gulf countries and in this case the bimbo that he hired uh her name is Kalin Levit she was asked by a reporter on Monday whether countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE would step up to for the vast majority of the cost of the war, which the reporter claimed they did during the first Gulf War. And this is what she said. During the Persian Gulf War, 1990, 1991, Arab countries uh paid for the vast majority of the cost of the war. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE. Who's paying uh for the cost of this war? Will those Arab countries step up to do just that? >> Well, I think it's something the president would >> Excuse me. She's not sexy. Whoever said that, she's not sexy. She's a bimbo. >> Be quite interested in calling them to do. Um I won't get ahead of him on that. Uh but certainly it's an idea that I I know that he has and and something that I think you'll hear more from him on. >> So that's an idea that he has and we will hear more um soon.
Imagine going to war against uh Iran, not tell your allies in the Persian Gulf monarchies, force them to get engaged and then also force them to pay the price. I I I truly don't know like I I think I think uh honor and dignity are something that cannot be purchased. your money and what is what is the purpose of life if somebody loses its dignity like if you live if you live in my opinion everybody has a different opinion right it's better to live 40 50 60 years with a dignity as we say in a karami than living 90 years without dignity What is the what is the purpose of life if you're going to be treated like this like this bimbo is treating now the Persian Gulf monarchies like those are men in there has to be some manhood in in among these politicians I'm not talking about a manhood type of damin who was working on his testosterone levels right going to wars left and right I'm talking about um a type of character that is that sets boundaries of how much you can intervene and middle in my country as a leader representing the people of this country and how much I can assist you and how much I could uh even assist you financially in this case. Right? And if the interest of my nation and my country is not aligned with your basically crazy warrioration against Iran, then why would I pay the price for it? Those are legitimate questions in my opinion. Unfortunately, uh these Persian Gulf leaders are just doubling down on this situation.
But imagine guys, even a person like Roy, uh Rory Stewart, by the way, those are just establishment journalists, MI6 aligned people. Like even Roi Stewart even like imagine if somebody like Roi Stewart like imagine if somebody like Tony Blair is the same like Ro Stewart right like imagine if they say something like this like he's saying that these Persian Gulf monarchies basically are feeling like they are being completely betrayed and this is coming from someone who is like as we say in in Arabic is like from the bones of the empire's neck, you know, like he's an integral part of it. Imagine if he's saying this >> on projecting power on being able to use other people's land >> and therefore how important do you think the rising worry and anger in Qatar and the other Gulf states is in terms of President Trump's position because he's certainly getting some incoming uh calls from them saying, "What's going on? We didn't know we were going to be on the front line. Nobody ever asked us." >> Well, absolutely. I mean, so I I think part of the problem is that he's weakening his traditional ally. So as you remember, Qatar, UAE, Saudi competed to give huge amounts of money to President Trump and his family in planes and they really will have felt that they had done everything they could to keep America on side. But what he's done hasn't involved consulting them, >> hasn't consulted European allies either. even asked him. >> But the result of what he's doing is having a catastrophic impact on the Gulf. I mean, if you're Dubai, you're very worried because your tourism industry is being affected. Your expats, your financial services, all of that's being affected. If you're Kata, >> your entire production of gas at the moment has been stopped. You can't export it out of the straits. But he's also of course weakening his traditional allies in Europe because we are very very vulnerable in the United Kingdom to oil prices going up, interest rates going up at a time when our economy is struggling and the same is true for the rest of Europe. So this may be benefiting one traditional American ally which is Israel although that's actually also questionable but there's no doubt at all that from the point of viewing almost everybody else isn't it? Yes. So he's basically he has put everyone in jeopardy with his brilliant 5D chess [laughter] against Iran.
One of our friends says, "Did you just say he's a born in the vampire's neck?" No, I said he's he's like a bone in the empire's neck. In Arabic, there is a metaphor. We say like if you want to say somebody is too important for me, he's from the bones of the neck. Like he's too important for me. And I think this guy is uh from the bones of the empire. Imagine that if this guy is criticizing Trump and saying he has put the people um our the allies of the United States in jeopardy in the Persian Gulf monarchies. He didn't consult them and then he forced this war upon them and now he wants them to pay the money. So anyways before I go to the last part of today's stream guys uh I would like to just uh thank you all for tuning in today. Today we are 750 people watching this only on YouTube. Uh it would be really kind of you and I would be very grateful if you simply hit the like button like thumbs up as you're watching this and subscribe to Saviana Analysis. It helps me a lot with um the reach and algorithm of YouTube.
And Donald Trump has gone even um after the UK today. He sorry against uh after France after going after the UK. He said um Trump says France refused to allow planes carrying military supplies bound for Israel to fly over its territory. [laughter] And he said US will remember France's actions. He's turning everyone against him. Even Italy and uh Melan who is has a close relationship with Trump's administration. Um, Italy denied US military aircraft bound for the Middle East and uh they have not given them permission to land at a base in Sicily. This is according to an Italian newspaper called Kurier de Lasera. The move of course risks inflaming tensions with Washington which has criticized European allies for not supporting its war with Iran. The US flight plan was submitted without authorization of consultation with national authorities and was forwarded after US planes were already airborne. So imagine they have sent this uh military aid and they have not even consulted their allies in Italy. They haven't even noticed give them a notice. They just want to stumble over them.
The good thing for Spain for example, I'm very proud of Spain basically acting in a sovereign manner, sovereign manner. I'm very proud of the voices in Germany whether in the left or in the right calling for sovereignty and uh that would be the the real approach actually is for the European countries to have their sovereign role in the continent and abroad and not to tie their destiny with the destiny of the United States all the time and to diversify their relationship. The world is changing. They are rising powers. They are rising regional powers. They are rising international powers. And it is their in their interest to diversify the relationship including with Russia by the way.
I mean at the end of the day I have to ask you a question. This is just quickly at the end of this conversation guys. If MS the chancellor of Germany and this is the highest official in Germany right who is the president of Germany. You have the foreign minister Vader. We have K starmer today. All these people m they received Abu Muhammad Jolani. If these leaders are ready to receive and shake hands with the leader of the al-Qaeda offshoot in Syria and shake hands with him and deal with him and legitimize him and normalize him and send him financial aid is Putin worse than Abu Muhammad Jolani, the guy who vowed allegiance to Zawahiri who created the Japetto Nosa the offshoot of al-Qaeda in Syria was killed like enormous number of people who sent car bombs to Iraq who as we speak now he's orchestrating pograms against the Christians in Syria. Is it is it is it do you really see the the the madness coming to the press with a straight face and say Putin is a dictator. We don't deal with him. He's a war criminal and this and that. And the same thing they did with Assad in the past. But they have no problem with Abu Muhammad Aolani. Make it make sense. I It doesn't make sense for me.
Excuse me. Anyways, thank you so much guys for tuning in to do the stream. I really appreciate you whether you watch this on YouTube or on Rumble. And thank you so much with Access for moderating the live chat. Tomorrow we will be with a guest. After tomorrow we will be with the guest and after tomorrow it's going to be with the guest. Thank you so much. Hit the like button guys. Subscribe and if you like to support the independent work I'm doing. Please become a Patreon. The link is calling on the screen. patreon.com/seran analysis. If you don't like using Patreon, there are different other means in the description below. And I will see you tomorrow. Salam.