Transcription
$100 in the early 1900s would have become worth $37 by the 1960s, $6 by 2000, and just $3.80 today. The money that once paid for 8 months worth of groceries now barely covers a carton of eggs. This chart shows us the real-time collapse of the value of our currency, a process known as currency debasement.
Bitcoin, founded in 2009, was meant to protect against this phenomenon. Yet, here we are in 2025 with gold rising by over 50%, making this one of its largest price appreciations in a single year, but Bitcoin actually falling in price since the start of the year.
This chart shows us how long it takes for the US government to accumulate $1 trillion in national debt. Back in the 2000s, it took an average of 716 days. Today, that number has fallen to just 150 days. In other words, the national debt is now growing five times faster than it did just 20 years ago. For comparison, the size of the entire Bitcoin market right now is 1.8 trillion. So every year, the US government is effectively spending the equivalent to the value of all Bitcoin in existence.
At a time where deficit spending has never been this severe, Bitcoin's recent performance has been disappointing to say the least. Many believe that Bitcoin's fundamental reason for existence, which was supposed to be hedging against currency debasement, is now falling apart.
Before we look at whether this is actually the case, make sure you do not miss the Black Friday discount that we're doing. There's only a few hours left, so make sure you don't miss it. The reason we publish research like this on Bitcoin is to make sure as many people as possible truly understand what Bitcoin represents and how you can take advantage of it without getting caught up in the hype or fear that the crypto community often goes through.
We've sent trade alerts on crypto to our clients at Bravos Research throughout 2024 and 2025 and it's made up some of the biggest trades that we've had over this period of time. We've had multiple great trades on Ethereum, Tron, on Bitcoin and some really great trades on Salana. The gains that crypto can offer when momentum is strong can be spectacular. But there is downside to crypto and that's what can completely wipe out a lot of traders. This is why we have extremely strict risk management when it comes to crypto to keep our losses limited to singledigit percentage points. This has helped us sidestep some very large draw downs on crypto in the past. to follow each and every trade that we take on crypto.
Make sure to take advantage of our Black Friday sale because as we're going to see, Bitcoin is about to get extremely interesting. This year, the number of stories mentioning debasement has gone viral. Investors have never been more worried about currency debasement than today. The current level of concern even exceeds what we saw in 2020 after the pandemic hit and the Federal Reserve created over $3 trillion in just 3 months to stabilize the system.
Bitcoin is intimately linked to this debasement story. Institutions like JP Morgan are calling it part of the debasement trade along with gold suggesting that even institutional investors in banks do see Bitcoin as a kind of hedge against currency debasement. You can understand why people are puzzled today by the performance of Bitcoin. It's not just underperforming gold in 2025. It's underperforming the stock market. And even believe it or not, the US Treasury market is outperforming Bitcoin in 2025. Bitcoin is certainly not capturing any of the massive deficit spending that is taking place this year.
When you zoom out to 2022, however, it does give some context. Bitcoin still remains the strongest performing asset, returning almost 500% just over the last 3 years, compared to 122% for gold, 76% for the S&P 500, and negative 13% for bonds. Remember, in 2019, Bitcoin was a $170 billion asset class. Today, it is at $1.8 trillion. So, it has grown by $1.6 trillion over the last 5 years, which is the equivalent to 15% of the total deficit spending that has been made since 2020.
But we don't think that this is the end of the road for Bitcoin. And the reason for that can be seen by looking at gold. Gold as of today has a market cap of $28 trillion. That means that Bitcoin's total market size is a mere 6.4% of gold's. This is actually the same relative size of Bitcoin to gold that we had back in January of 2021. So for the last 5 years, we've effectively seen Bitcoin gain zero market share over gold. Again, a lot of people use this as an argument to say that Bitcoin is not living up to its promise to replace gold.
But what if we were on the edge of seeing a big catch-up? What if Bitcoin was on the edge of growing to become 20% of gold's market cap? If that were to actually happen, that would send Bitcoin's price to $280,000. And this could actually play out a lot sooner than you might think. You see, gold's price has just done something that we've only seen three times in the last 15 years. It has rallied by 30% within 7 months. This happened in June of 2020, in July of 2016, and August of 2011. This really represents a form of panic in the investment community, a rush into an asset that historically hedges against currency debasement. It really represents a true deterioration in the confidence of the US dollar and US dollar denominated debt.
If you take a look at what happened to the price of Bitcoin following each of these instances, it almost systematically coincided with some of the greatest buying opportunities on Bitcoin, at least looking out 6 to 12 months. One of the reasons for this could simply be that as investors see the value of their gold investments make a meteoric rise, they rotate some of their profits from this price appreciation into digital gold, Bitcoin, as gold has recently gained $5 trillion in market share within a few months. It's not crazy to think that some of these profits are going to be rotated into Bitcoin.
Now, before you leave this video and put on a 50x leveraged bet going long on Bitcoin, there is one more thing you should know. An investment opportunity does not equal a trading opportunity. Confusing trading and investing is one of the things that I've seen lead to the most spectacular losses. It's important to actively separate your trading from your investing. Although we think Bitcoin is an investment opportunity, it definitely is not a trading opportunity today. Bitcoin has broken below all of its key moving averages and all of them are beginning to curl down. Not only showing that Bitcoin is trending down, but its momentum is turning lower really for the first time since early 2022.
Now, we don't necessarily think this will lead to an 80% decline like in 2022. But from a trading standpoint, we don't want to be going long on Bitcoin as long as price does not look constructive. We exited all of our crypto positions in early October and we have remained patiently on the sidelines since. This is one of the most important skills to develop as a trader. We'll be looking for Bitcoin to base around this zone and potentially capture a trade once it emerges out.
We had multiple very profitable trades on crypto throughout 2024 and 2025. And once momentum begins to turn back up, we intend on continuing to have trades on crypto in 2026. So, if you don't want to miss those, make sure to use the Black Friday discount that we're doing so that you can lock in our membership for a full year for a fraction of the price that it's worth. Thank you for watching.