Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this breaking news video on Monday, October 6, 2025, facing a slightly red crypto market because yesterday, Sunday, Bitcoin corrected slightly after a new all-time high, boom, it was rejected. Well, it wasn't a big rejection, but it wasn't very pretty either. For now, since the opening of the new Asian market candle, we see that it's rather green. So we can say that it's encouraging. But be careful, on the VIP Telegram channel this morning, I showed you that there are quite a few bullish channels that have a higher probability of resolving with a small downward break. So we'll have to be cautious.
For now, on Wall Street, Friday closed a bit mixed. It wasn't too bad. We have futures that are rather green. So we should see Wall Street open this afternoon. In any case, there are no major bearish catalysts for now that could indicate a direct drop. And regarding catalysts, well, we're waiting for a bullish macroeconomic catalyst to boom, to make everything explode even more, to the moon, or a bearish catalyst that could cause a correction. For now, today, for example, on Monday, October 6th, we'll have nothing. Tomorrow, Tuesday, October 7th, some Fed governors will speak from 4 PM in the afternoon until even 10 PM at night, you see. Then on Wednesday, we'll also have some Fed governors speaking. It will be at 3:20 PM to 3:30 PM in the afternoon and especially at 9 PM at night. That's funny, it's completely shifted. Well, at 9 PM at night, there will be the Fed minutes, sorry, which will be released. It's the summary of what the Fed said 3 weeks ago. They put everything down on paper, everything neatly. It's a bit like what Powell said during his speech, the forecasts, all that from the different governors with the dot plot. What does he predict for rate cuts? Well, it will be a reminder on paper of everything that was said 3 weeks ago. So that could create a bit of volatility. So that will be the day after tomorrow, it will be Wednesday at 9 PM at night. On Thursday, Jerome Powell will speak at 2:30 PM. However, it's not a major event. So sometimes Powell gives speeches like that, but he doesn't specifically talk about the economy, you see. Sometimes he gives speeches at universities, at small conventions like that, but he won't get into that game of talking about rate cuts and all that. He can talk about anything and everything. Well, on Thursday, we'll also have the unemployment claims for the first week of October. We'll have some governors speaking, and we'll finish the week on Friday with more governors speaking and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey to see if we're bullish or not. So we see that this week, well, quite a few Fed governors will speak, and especially the FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday, which will be a reminder of everything that has been done, but it can reset things for some. Apart from that, no major macro events, of course. And the most important event of this month, we'll see later, it will be at the end of the month for potential rate cuts if they happen. In short, if there were to be an ugly catalyst, it would be at the end of the month if Powell decides not to cut rates because, well, the US government is shut down, there are no employment figures. So, well, he can say since there are no figures, we have no visibility, we have no data, so we're doing nothing. And then investors are likely to dislike that. But we have time, we'll see how everything unfolds throughout October. Knowing that the US government shutdown could also end in October because I'm scratching my head.
The news this morning is very good, very bullish, of course. Bitcoin made an all-time high yesterday, we're super happy. So $125,700, a new market cap record, of course, that goes with it for Bitcoin, exceeding $2.5 trillion in market cap for the first time in history. So that's very good. So a rally that was driven by several things, notably the US government shutdown, which was rather bullish for everything. Bullish for all assets, defensive assets, risk assets for everyone, whether it's gold which exploded, the S&P 500 which exploded, Bitcoin which exploded, well, the government shutdown, boom, very bullish. You should know that the government hadn't shut down since 2018, and so, well, it's a news item that is generally appreciated for moving away from the dollar and towards risk assets. We have Fabian Dori, Investment Director at Signum Bank, who tells us: "The US government shutdown has reignited the debate about Bitcoin's role as a store of value, which is rather positive, as political dysfunction highlights the interest in decentralized assets and, in parallel, the general context characterized by loose liquidity conditions." So we're talking about rate cuts. The acceleration of the economic cycle driven by services and a reduction in underperformance compared to stocks, and then attracting investors to Bitcoin. In short, he's telling us: "Well, why did Bitcoin surge? Government shutdown, it's rather bullish. It will become a safe haven asset, which Bitcoin sometimes is considered, sometimes not. But above all, it's that the S&P 500 and gold had surged to the moon, and Bitcoin had lagged a bit, and Bitcoin is catching up. That's what he thinks, which is not at all unreasonable. Well, on the other hand, we need to be careful about this government shutdown effect too. Well, unfortunately, it could end at the end of the month because at the end of the month, that's when it will be decided whether we will continue with rate cuts or not. And Powell could say, well, there are no macro figures, I'm not cutting rates because we have no visibility, no vision, nothing. And so we have Jack Keis, analyst at Nansen, who says: "The crypto market could benefit from a rise from the US government shutdown if it continues, but if the Fed continues to move towards a more accommodative stance, what does that mean? Towards, well, still rate cuts, simply." So he also stated that it is premature to call the bottom at $108,000 because the crypto market needs to stabilize a bit more before saying, okay, $108,000 is a bottom, now heading to $150,000. Well, the reason is to be cautious. We have Dori from Signum Bank who adds that market data indicates that the current price action may be linked to an accumulation phase, why? Because the selling pressure from long-term holders has calmed down, and the selling pressure from short-term holders who were selling at a loss has also calmed down. So what we need is a small period of consolidation, calmly, to then explode upwards, that would be best, you see. Well, you should know that with the drop to $108,000 and the large closure of options at expiration last week, it can actually prepare the ground for the fourth quarter. So it's a small reset on futures, on term contracts or perpetual contracts, that's good news. Now, what will October hold for us? If it's the madness that everyone is posting, basically long and x1000 leverage, well, you understand that the market will go down a bit, and knowing that there are many big longs, unfortunately. We'll look at that at the end of the video.
Second news, the dollar is on track to have its worst year since 1973. So that's also why everything is exploding upwards, because the dollar is about to crash, you see. So the dollar is having its worst year since 1973, its worst year in 52 years. So that's quite a lot. The S&P 500, the largest global financial index, the largest US ETF, also exploded by +40% in the last 6 months. The S&P 500 is 10% per year since it was launched, for many years, even decades. Well, so 40% in 6 months, you can feel that it has surged. Bitcoin also made a new high. Gold is making one all-time high after another. Similarly, gold has gained between 40% and 50% since the beginning of the year. It's madness. The correlation between gold and the S&P is unprecedented. We're at 0.91 because usually when the S&P 100 explodes, gold doesn't explode alongside it. Gold is a defensive asset, it explodes when things are not going well. But here, everything is exploding upwards. The S&P is exploding, gold is exploding, Bitcoin is exploding, and the dollar is at its lowest in over 50 years, or rather, its lowest in over 50 years. Well, so all of this is due to. Some say, for example, that as Commerzbank thinks that a new monetary policy is being put in place, and so he tells us, I quote: "We are witnessing a rush into assets, all assets, risk assets, defensive assets, everything good, and in the face of rising inflation, a weakening labor market, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the dollar is having its worst year since 1973 and has lost 40% of its purchasing power since 2020, and what are people doing? They are getting out of the dollar and going towards where they will lose less purchasing power, which is perfectly normal, and that's why Bitcoin was created. Fiat currencies are only losing value, depreciating because of infinite printing. That's the party of printing fiat currencies. Some fiat currencies in some countries are collapsing. That is to say, before an egg, you bought it for 10 cents, now you buy it for 10 dollars, you see, in some countries, it's becoming ridiculous. And so, in the face of this, what do investors do? They get out of cash, they get out of dollars, they don't care. They go towards defensive assets, they go towards gold, towards the bond market, they go towards attractive yield assets like stocks, cryptos. In any case, they don't stay in cash. And why don't they stay in cash? Because they no longer trust cash. That's what we're seeing. So it's a new paradigm that is emerging, which is quite interesting. We'll see if it lasts or not. And Commerzbank also adds that the context of the US shutdown, the massive downward revision of employment, a revision never seen before, 1 million fewer jobs created than expected, a small revision, a record revision never seen in the entire history of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a huge mess. So the weakening labor market, a really crazy R. Rate cuts, concerns about dollar erosion, well, all of this is a positive catalyst for Bitcoin, for gold, and for stocks, for everything else, you see. Well, so the rally towards Bitcoin was motivated by the US shutdown, by all these macro factors. Now, well, will it continue? Will the dollar regain strength and calm everyone down? Well, we'll have to watch all of that closely.
And to finish, Bitcoin didn't surge like that by magic. It is supported, it is supported by real buying. And this real buying comes from institutions. They are the ones pushing the Bitcoin market, the crypto market, but especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, where you can buy through ETFs. Why? Because corporate treasuries last week bought $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin, over 6700 Bitcoin, and ETFs bought over $3.2 billion. So if we take ETFs and corporate treasuries, last week they bought almost $4.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. That's why Bitcoin is also very well supported, why Bitcoin is surging. It's not by magic, it's real buying that's happening, but by institutions, they are the big buyers. That's how this cycle works. Well, after that, there are also other factors that played a role, but the reason they are buying is the weakness of the dollar, macro uncertainty, and everything that's happening, it's normal. Well, so institutions have snapped up a lot of Bitcoin, but more importantly, they are buying much more Bitcoin than is being issued. Bitcoin miners create 900 Bitcoin every day, and the Bitcoin algorithm, the act of mining Bitcoin, creates new Bitcoin. Remember, it goes up to 21 million. So right now, with the last 900 Bitcoin per day, and hold on, companies alone this year, 2025, on average have bought, corporate treasuries 1755 Bitcoin per day, and ETFs 1430 Bitcoin per day. So we're saying that 900 Bitcoin are mined every day, and then there are over 3000 Bitcoin per day being bought. So it's a halving to the power of a billion, you see. Well, to the power of a billion, that's the halving. Before, we were happy the halving is here, we have less Bitcoin. Well, Bitcoin is divided by two. So if demand remains constant, it will push the price. That's what the bulls are betting on, you see. But here, it's just that we have four times more Bitcoin being bought than Bitcoin being mined, you see. So we have the halving to the power of 4, you see. It's a good thing. Well, that's why. Now, regarding altcoins, some think we could have an altcoin rally that could be triggered by future ETFs that will be released. There are many ETFs waiting for altcoin ETFs. There's XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Litecoin, there are others too. And as we see very well, ETFs bring in a lot of cash. So altcoins that will have their ETFs. Now, be careful, it needs to be ETFs from large investment funds. A small ETF from a small, unknown fund won't do much. But imagine BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and the like releasing altcoin ETFs. Yes, that will bring in money. So the good horses for altcoins will be the horses that have an ETF behind them, which will be a good little rocket at the rear of the horses, you see, to help them push well. Well, we also have Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, who tells us that Bitcoin's all-time high occurred after ETFs unleashed $3.3 billion last week, $24 billion for the year, that's what Bitcoin ETFs have bought. So, he confirms, it's the ETFs that are doing everything. It's traditional finance that's doing everything. Well, now for the fourth quarter, is it to the moon or not to the moon? Well, we've understood that it will depend on institutional interest and adoption. So if ETFs and corporate treasuries continue to buy Bitcoin, it will be good. That's it. On the other hand, if they start not buying anymore because something bad happens, well, then it won't be good. So in short, what do we see? We are completely correlated with the stock market because it's the same players who buy stocks who are buying, who have the big players in the stock market who are buying Bitcoin and crypto too. Well, so for now, ETFs hold 1.5 million Bitcoin for $188 billion. That's 7.2% of the total supply. So if ETFs continue, soon they will have 10% of the total Bitcoin supply, and corporate treasuries hold 1.4 million Bitcoin, 6.6% of the total supply. Well, so as long as they are on the buying side, everything will be fine. If a bearish catalyst happens in traditional finance, and be careful, some analysts are talking about the bubble, when the stock market bursts, it will fall, be careful, gold has gained +40% +50% this year, it's in overbought territory, it could also fall. Well, we see that everything is surging, and trees don't grow to the sky, as they say. That is to say, at some point, there will have to be a small correction. It could be small, medium, or large. But at some point, when something surges, surges, surges, surges, at some point, it has to correct. Either a little or a lot, passionately, you see, we need to be cautious. And I'll just finish with this, but we'll do the detailed analysis tonight. Let's be careful. Can Bitcoin surge? Well, if ETFs and corporate treasuries continue to buy billions and billions, yes, Bitcoin will surge. But let's be careful that all these small lines here are liquidations of longs, meaning people buying on the rise. And so let's be careful that the market here, the little rascals, could decide, you know what, I feel like eating, heading towards $110,000. There you go. Well, we'll talk about all of that in detail.
So there you have it, friends. I hope I taught you a lot this morning. I hope it was interesting. Sending kisses, and we'll see you tonight for the crypto analysis on YouTube. See you tonight. Bye bye.