Transcription
Today's number, guys, is a big one. Could we be heading for another 1960s, 70s style stagflation period? And with jobs numbers coming in from the US looking weak, we've broken through key zones, causing Wall Street to possibly hedge billions of dollars.
To make matters worse than all of this, BlackRock is now starting to limit the amount of liquidations allowed in some of their funds. And we've also got breakdowns of the most important sectors in the market, including the AI run and, of course, breakouts in oil heading towards $100 a barrel. So, what exactly is Wall Street doing? In today's video, we take a look at where they may be hiding and, more importantly, what's in store for the next couple of weeks as the volatility markets just start to spike up. Guys, it doesn't happen very often, but we need to take a look at stocks, commodities, and cryptos to really unpack what's going on. Don't miss this special weekend edition. We'll see you in a moment.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson, and today we're discussing everything from the macro to what Wall Street's been up to, to, of course, the key flows that have defined the last week of movements. It was a sell-most-things on Friday throughout the US session as we saw poor jobs reports. But really, the story underneath was much bigger than that because we just broke some monster levels we have to talk about today. We'll start off the show with news, then we'll go through the key dark pool activity that is Wall Street's secret movements, and of course, go with the options, the data, and the key movements on the charts.
But let's begin here with BlackRock's big bid because, of course, at Swondesk and many news publications are now reporting that BlackRock's $26 billion private credit fund is limiting redemptions, saying they only allow 5% of total redemption versus the 9.3% that's being requested by investors. And this shows again the private funds may be starting to face extreme illiquidity. And it's a big problem because, of course, that can feed into bonds and feed into the greater risk-on debt markets. It's just the beginning of potentially what is a much bigger story. I'd like to see in the comments down below if you guys have any stories similar to this because I do think this is going to be a bigger one in 2026, and it marks a breakdown as well in the S&P 500, which also could start to create contagion.
So let's talk about the big elephant in the room. The US non-farm payrolls report came out, and Blue Curtic at Blue Curtic over on X did get a good report here, which shows that the unemployment rate might be sitting at 4.4%, but 92,000 jobs were lost. And remember, the problem with these reports, and always has been, is that when we're getting the revisions a few months' time or even a year away, they tend to be even worse. So what exactly is going on? And of course, with everything that's going on geopolitically as well, are we going to see more jobs fall off?
Well, I thought this one here from Charlie Bolo over on X, you can follow him here at Charlie Bleo, as you can see from Creative Planning, really showed the kind of problem that we're in. So, I just wanted to read Charlie's post here because I thought it was really interesting when it comes to the stats surrounding this 1K jobs loss average. Now, why is this so important? Well, it turns out that this is the 12th time we've seen this much weakness in the jobs market since 1950. In 11 of the 11 previous times, the US economy was already in recession. Wow, that's a huge point here. So, we've talked about this 12-month roll has been something we've looked at. Six-month roll now here from Charlie. Interesting stuff indeed. And it does show that either AI, geopolitical tensions, weakness in the economy, length of the run here, all of these things are starting to really start to kind of show themselves in the macro. And although unemployment is generally a lagging indicator, because of how everything's playing out with a post-2020 kind of movement and, of course, this AI stuff, we are starting now to question how much worse is it going to get. Remember, revisions are the problem here. So, continue to watch the jobs reports, guys. But more importantly, I think let's continue to watch the bonds. Make sure to sub to the channel. We'll follow these bonds. I'm telling you, 2026 ain't like no other, guys.
Kuwaiti crude oil production. Now, this is from Rory Johnson over on X, as you can see here. He said that it's only down to about 2.6 as of last week. Now, this is another 2.5% loss of global petroleum supply. So I think this is a big deal because, of course, we're already seeing huge movements throughout the markets when it comes to US oil. Not only did Subu Trade here report at Subu Trade, by the way, call volumes through the roof as of Friday. So everyone, of course, massively jumped on the call volume train. Huge squeeze, of course, this creates massive movements in markets. It's not the first time we've talked about oil, is it guys? We've obviously been talking about it for 4 months, but this type of stuff has been absolutely decimating shorts, and you just would be probably crazy to have a go at it the other way at this stage.
And look at this chart. This one here from 314 Research, courtesy of Warren Pies and at Daily Chartbook over on X, shows global jet fuel prices soaring. And I mean soaring. These things are up like ridiculously over the last couple of weeks. In fact, they've actually gone up, tripling. Uh, so yeah, this is a big problem, and it's going to continue to be a big problem until something stops. You can see here, gold's gone up. We've been reporting on that for years. Then we've had copper, obviously, the last 12 months in particular. Then now we've had energy. And I've got to say, shout out to Tavy Costa over on X. Some extremely good work there. You can see here his name, Tavi Costa, etc. Um, doing some great work there on commodities. You know, I've really agreed with Tavi for quite a few years. And obviously, you guys know that I've been a big fan of gold um for what, three years now, and I've been a huge fan of silver for the last 15 months or so. And it just goes to show, you know, there are a couple of big brands out there as well on top of this. And uh, I do tend to agree. We've been talking about this one now. Interesting. Agriculture livestock is his kind of next one. I've actually already seen these been going up. If you look at Moo, Moo's been going up for months. We've been talking about that in our private community. Shout out to the AT Market Masters Club at FX Evolution. You can join us and join us there, guys, because it really has been in the flows.
Remember, guys, this channel, we're all about the flows, the data, the flows, the hard evidence if we can get it, and the more importantly, non-biased approach if we can, because the main thing is, are we actually seeing Wall Street doing something or just saying something?
Now, speaking of doing something, what is going on here? Gold trust ETF flows actually crashed, and you can see here the largest outflow since November of 2016. It might be worthwhile going and having a quick look at that period if you're interested in gold. We won't be able to have time today in this chart, but basically, at Daily Chartbook, you can see here has posted it, uh, off Koins data, and it does show that there's a bit of outflow coming into gold ETFs. Now, you might think that's negative. I always don't really think that. I think that it's, it's an interesting story. I saw it trending, but at the same time, the money is kind of still flowing into gold. Remember, central banks are the number one purchaser. So, just remember to look at the data and um, follow the big boys. Don't follow necessarily everything that's going on.
Let's now have a look here at one of the other important factors, which is that we're seeing big VIX volatility. Now, I like this one from Zero Hedge, and I think it was also from Goldman Sachs Pasquarilio, I think. But if you go over to Zero Hedge, I've retweeted it as well. It basically shows here that we have a massive spike up when it comes to VIX coming through single stocks when compared to the S&P, and that is no surprise to anyone. We've been doing this while tons of stocks have been going up and tons of stocks have been going down, yet we've been in what, a 150-point to 200-point range? So realistically, it just goes to show again, volatility has been in a single stock picker, sector selection market, and we've been talking about this, but now it seems to be in a potential everything market because we did just see a fall through a very key zone.
So let's talk about how that happened. Uh, volume leaders, we did report on this as we hit around 6,900 on the S&P. We kind of just, we basically started to see a bunch of shorts come in from dark pools. It looks like these guys were playing smart, and they've so far, of course, been potentially profiting from the downside. Now, when they start closing their positions, we'll be first to hopefully report on it. Uh, but for now, we haven't seen them do anything as of the close of Friday. So, this week here, we're probably looking for some big activity. Will we go to 6,600, 6,550, something like that, and find some buyers?
Some other kind of disturbing things as well is when you start to look at the RSP, which is the equal-weighted market, or you look at the S&P, we have heaps of transactions up near the highs. You can see some of the biggest ever recorded have been up near the highs on RSP, and now it's come down to almost a key support, I would say. But also VO, uh, which is, of course, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. Take a look at the clusters up here. And it's not the first time we've talked about these clusters, but I tell you what, they are all in a very tight range, and volume leaders um showing this one. I just think it's really interesting. Whenever they tend to do big transactions, you do need to be paying attention, especially in a cluster. So, of course, there are some key supports. They're not that far away. For now, we have to kind of look at those levels and how they're reacted to if we do get down there.
Let's now talk about where Wall Street's been hiding its money. We reported on software companies pretty much about a week and a bit ago, saying that they may have undercut and caused a lot of liquidations. We saw that in the numbers. At the same time, we've seen here, of course, IGVB oversold, and Wall Street has sneakily moved into it the last couple of days. Uh, this chart here from Subu Trade, because we've seen that in the price action, and actually held up pretty well in comparison to everything else.
Now, if we take a look at the Qs, the NASDAQ ETF, you can see fund flows have also been absolutely obliterated. Now, generally, you'll see these types of bad fund flows sometimes near the peaks, but not usually. It's usually uh near the lows. So, interesting to see that tech's been beaten. Obviously, software's been beaten. And at the same time, what we're now seeing is a sell kind of almost everything else other than energy and tech. So, tech's actually become kind of the slight safe haven when it comes to the software businesses.
Let's now take a look at the charts and see how it's really impacting us. First up, advanced decline line, guys, has gone down for the first time in a while. But you'll note here the weekly close is underneath 6,800. It's underneath the weekly 20 moving average. And I really just want to detail that because, you know, we don't lose the weekly 20 moving average very often. When we have lost it in the past, we've quickly gapped back up and owned it. So, when we lose it, it does tend to often open up the old 50 moving average. And that's a bit of a problem because, of course, you can see here, drop, drop. That's fine. It's pretty close at that point. Bounces up. But if we go over here, hm, where's that 50 moving average looking? It's about 6,500. So, could we be going down to the 6665 area? I've kind of marked out this key point where I think the major demand is upon doing the analysis on the charts. But, uh, yeah, it doesn't bode well. I mean, there's nothing here that you're going to say, "Wow, I love that dip bar right now." It doesn't mean that it's not right. Sometimes it happens, but when you think about technicals, you know, you are looking for breakdowns, and you can see here this is a closure underneath previous points. Now, could it spike? Sure. But the good news is that you always can be patient, and when you're patient, then you can see the reality. The problem last week, and we talked about this, was it was a series of lower highs coming in, and although, of course, you've still got to be bullish on the range, this is actually the worst thing we've seen for quite some time because we lost semis as well, and you'll see that in a moment.
Let's have a look at the US 500 futures again. Here are the options high lows. 2050 cross, first one in a very long time there on the futures. You can see the last time we crossed, we actually fell further. It's kind of rare. It doesn't mean too much. Obviously, you can put those things in algorithms, but it does open up and expose 60600, 6550. So flows look like they're kind of going more towards the negative side.
If we take a look at the Qs for a second here, we put pressure on the 600. Wasn't actually as bad as you would think because the the tech companies actually are holding better than the rest of the market at this stage. But um, yeah, this will be another one that's interesting because as you can see here on the weekly, they got a lot of pressure down. We had a doji the previous week, and then now we've kind of more considered closing below the weekly 20 again. And that again, as you can see here, exposes the 50 in many ways. So the 50 could be exposed. It's very difficult to say that there's much flow going towards the upside.
Now, why is that? Well, it's all got to do with these options. You know, once you lose some of these key levels, unless you bounce very quickly, you often create what we call a waterfall effect. And this is what people are worried about as geopolitical tensions continue to spike up. We've also got some problems as well because it's not just that it's a couple of countries, it's it's kind of expanding. And I'm no expert on this stuff, guys, so I tend to stay out of it. But I did hear from a couple of people that know what's going on that obviously water is heavily exposed over there, and there's just some really shocking stuff that could happen. So, um, upon what's already going on. So, you've got to just be, you know, keep it in, uh, I guess, you know, whenever you're trading markets, you just got to kind of, you know, decide whether you're going to get into that stuff or you're just going to look at the flows. But the flows here have been negative. And you've got to say when you go through 6,800, you expose all of these puts, and all these puts are of course pressuring to the downside. And you'll notice that a lot of these puts end in 6,500 and 6600. H no coincidence probably that they're sitting around those levels. So, but definitely some key zones to look at. We didn't lose it on the Qs, which I think is interesting. So Qs 600 actually held, uh, and that's kind of important. So around that zone is pretty, pretty key for it.
But I think the big one that a lot of people are watching is semiconductors. Now, I saw some reports on semis coming in that said monstrous amounts of puts have come through. We'll look at that in a moment, but realistically, 360 seems to be a pretty interesting strike zone between 370 and 360. And I think you'll see why when we look at the charts. Let's also have a look at the net gex. You can see here that this is where those negative kind of positions came in. They're all for the 13th and the 20th. And you can see the overall negativity on semiconductors has risen heavily, uh, with some massive transactions coming in near the end of the week. So quite a lot of large trades coming in to pressure semiconductors at this point.
Nvidia meanwhile has held pretty well, 177, not underneath 170. So I always say 170, 200 really. So I mean, those are the key levels. And IBIT, you can see here for Bitcoin, because it does trade through the weekend, it's still sitting just above its 38.5 zone on the real market and um, or on the IBIT market, and it's kind of, you know, hovering. I wouldn't say it looks shocking on the charts, nor does it look good.
Now, if you want to track uh NFP, this is the good code here for TradingView, but you'll notice that it's still in a downwards trend line. So I just wanted to kind of track it visually. I think we're very visual, and this is just a good way of seeing that the markets, yeah, they don't look too good on the jobs front, and I think that comes as no surprise to you guys. But remember, this macro read takes ages. It's usually lagging as well. But I found that uh Charlie's data source there pretty interesting because it actually suggests that we're already in a recession. A lot of you guys are going to scream at me in the comments section. Yes, I know, Tom. But remember, it's not until the market actually says, "Oh, it's, it's over, guys," that it's over. So, yeah, it is a pretty bad read. There's no doubt about it.
High yield junk dropped for the first time. Actually took out a bit of a support as well. So this suggests that the bonds market is starting to find some risks in at least the risky part of the bonds market. We'll continue to track this because we have dropped some key levels. It's not necessarily the end yet. Uh, but certainly a warning sign along with the VIX spiking up.
UK oil though, and US oil are up absolutely astronomically. Like a lot of questions have come in. Why are energy stocks not running as much? It's because what you tend to do is energy stocks look at the long-term oil price. This is obviously short-term spiking. So these are blends between a whole bunch of different futures contracts. And what ends up happening is you get massive spikes in these often. Even when you're in them, you get rolled as well. So you got to be a bit careful about that as a trade. But you can see here barrels are hitting that next target. And after this, you know, you're talking 105 on US oil and you're talking some pretty big numbers on um US, sorry, UK oil. This one here, US oil hitting that first uh or second major level. And then of course after this, you know, you're talking about 110 a barrel potentially. So, uh, yeah, I think oil could keep spiking up, and it doesn't look like things are getting better. It looks like they're unfortunately escalating at this stage. So, oil can continue to spike. Uh, but just remember the trade, the easier trade there was actually a few weeks ago before any of this happened. It was actually showing in the flows. So, remember it's in the flows. Now, it's, you know, very, very risky trade. It could, you know, they they come to a ceasefire, all of a sudden it, you know, drops $15 a barrel. You know, those are the types of things that could happen.
US 2-year, you can see here, spiked up after jobs reports. We actually almost hit a new high. So again, it's not exactly what you would expect. Usually expect cut, cut, cut during this bad unemployment. The Fed's got a problem. What what's going on now with oil is going to cause big issues to inflation as well. So, it's not easy, guys. It's going to be a very tough '26. We'll have to keep watching that one.
Nvidia, no real news on that particular chart just yet, guys, but semiconductors did fall through some of my key zones, and this doesn't mark very well. Now, I do think that it's important to note that 0.55 is going to be a big, big ratio here for the semiconductors spy. We're paying a lot of attention to this area. I would think this probably hits at around the same point that we hit around 6,600 on the S&P if we do go down there. And you can see a break of the downward trend line. So it hasn't completely lost trend, uh, but it has done what I would usually look at as a first reason weakness. Semiconductors in general hitting the 20 moving average almost here at 375. 360 is the main put support. So that sits around again where I think all those ratios would sit, and I think most people don't see that level. So it's an interesting one to be watching.
Let's have a look at software. Now, we first reported on this as I said about a week and a half ago and started talking about it, and what do you know? It wasn't down. Why? Cuz Wall Street's sneaky. Why? Cuz if it's in the press, it's in the price. And what happens is the market often ends up spiking into these zones and causing huge amounts of sell, and then all of a sudden everyone gets on the back of how bad it is. When there is volatility, often markets will go to the beaten-down stocks because they have to be invested. So they'll go over to the tech and the software and the other things. And that's why it's holding up. Okay.
As I mentioned before, energy, you know, we talked about this breaking out a while ago, but it didn't do as well on the stocks. That's because, of course, short-term is up, not necessarily long-term. And you can see here, Chinese markets are holding on by a thread to the 25,000 level. So, a lot of markets hitting on key supports or even breaking underneath, such as the S&P.
I want to just quickly show you the Russell 2000 as well that has broken through. First major support kind of around here at this 247 area, and you can see here again dropping off quite substantially, and it it fell 2.24%. So quite a lot lost here. Weekly is also important, dropped the weekly 20, which again suggests even the possibility of, as you guessed it, getting down to the 50. So nothing really positive here out of the US stock markets. Everything kind of looks like it's maybe not hit key support. It may have, but in these situations, usually I always go with where's the flow looking like it's probably going.
Ethereum, you can see here, doesn't mean I'd sell it either. It's just that, you know, chill, chill is what I usually would do. Ethereum, uh, you can see here you've got a market that is range-bound. So, we didn't manage to get out through Solana and Ethereum. Massive amount of liquidations. We're seeing pretty big moves in Bitcoin. And Bitcoin did break up. Now, this actually got through 72, which I think is kind of encouraging. It's pulled back now to the most traded area, which is about 67. You would generally want to see a buyer start to input themselves here if we get a drop and it goes underneath again. That would be a huge trade in the future like a WO off style. Um, but at this point, it's at the key level that I would hope a bid comes in. So we'll see what happens there with this market, and we don't have a reaction on the small time frames yet.
For the week ahead, we do have CPI, which of course is on Wednesday. That's going to be a pretty big piece of information, but it's not going to include some of the problems that we know already in inflation reports. And then of course, as we go through, we get further information coming out, including some core PCE, which are the Fed often uses.
But really, guys, I think at the moment to summarize, there are a couple of key points. We lost the key zone that exposes around 200 points downside generally if you're thinking about channel reactions. That is what a technical trade would usually do. The other thing is that we're starting to see several markets break, including the private equity funds, and we're also seeing some huge movements when it comes to generalized bonds across the board, the volatility markets, and everything else. I do think that it is not easy this year, and obviously, it is still a single stock and sector-based performance market, but we have to hope cooler heads prevail and things kind of start to work out. At the same point, you know, we need to be aware of where is the major levels for Wall Street, and it seems to be down there. The S&P is probably the most important chart of the week, and of course, what's going on with oil.
Thanks so much, guys. Subscribe, smash the bell, and of course, try to stay calm. Catch you for now, guys. See you.