The Stock Market is about to POP‼️

Holy smokes, folks! For me to record a video on a Saturday, you know some big news had to come out. And we have some, uh, very, very massive news in regards to the Trump tariffs. You know, I posted about it on X about an hour ago. Those of you that don't follow me, if you want to follow me on X, it is, uh, always linked in the description area of all my videos. But massive news here: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs.

So, at the top of this video, obviously, I got to tell you what this means for stock prices this upcoming week. What does this mean for stocks like Apple, for AMD, for Nvidia, those sorts of stocks? So, uh, and many others we'll discuss here at the top of the video. We'll speak about that. Okay.

Then, from there, I want to actually play a little three-minute clip for you guys and react to this. This is Black Monday, uh, on Wall Street back in, uh, 2008. Because a lot of people were talking about this time here as like a 2008-2009 great financial crisis type time, right? It, uh, I'm just like, man, they they you must not have went through it to, uh, to have been saying stuff like that. Okay. And so I want to take you back to that time period and talk about what's going on back then versus what's going on now, and how they're really not even comparable at all, just to be quite frank.

Then I want to go ahead and react to this video from Yaku yesterday: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says US is very close to recession, may be in one now. I think that's going to be important to, to react to, right? And he also mentioned about the Apple store being hacked. And then I saw MIT posted this on X here today: Apple stores packed. So, which is just fascinating what's going on out there. So I want to go ahead and react to that. So a bunch of stuff to get into in this one here today.

By the way, I appreciate everybody joining me, as always. Thank you so much for being here. Uh, thank you for being subscribed to the channel, folks. Uh, thank you for smashing that thumbs-up button. That means so much to me, and that's all I need from you: just smash the thumbs-up button, man. I appreciate you all for being here, as always.

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So, you know, obviously the huge news, right? The huge news, uh, phones exempt, computers exempt, chips exempt, you know, a bunch of stuff exempt here, right? And you know, it's fascinating because in regards to stock prices, right, you know Apple, everybody's freaking out about Apple last week. Stock got all the way down to $172. Apple's probably going to be 200 plus this week, right? It's just a question of, it's, you know, going to be 205, 210, 215, we'll see. But the moral of the story is here: everybody's freaking out over that. And what did I tell you guys? What have I told you consistently this whole time, right? Buy the fear! Buy the fear! If you watch my videos for the last several weeks, been preaching one thing: buy the fear. All this crap comes and goes: tariffs, blah, blah, blah, oh, you know, we're gonna do this tariff, that tariff, it all comes and goes, right? And, um, it's exactly what we're seeing. You know, now they're just being removed one by one. Earlier, you know, just a few days ago, oh, we're going to do a 90-day pause now on everybody, right, except China. And then all of a sudden it's like, oh, we're going to go up on China a ton, but you know what? We're going to exempt all these like very key, important products, right, like chips and like phones and computers and all this stuff, right? And so it's just a big political circus at the end of the day, and it is what it is. Like, you know, you, you as an investor, you have to be able to not get emotional about this stuff, not freak out about this stuff, and just understand it's part of the process.

And as I told you guys, we're dealing with Trump in office. And when you've got Trump in office, if you went through the first term and you invested under Trump 1.0, you're going to get some insane time periods of it looks like the end of the world, it looks like it's all coming crashing down, it looks like America's done, we're done. And you're going to get some other time periods when it's going to feel like we're so back, baby, we're so back, like we're on top of the world, like we're better than we've ever been. And you're going to get several of these time periods. This isn't going to be the only one, by the way. There's going to be more time periods in the next four years, just so you understand, of these time periods of it looks like we're finished, we're done, so Trump's gone crazy, this and that. And then you're going to get other time periods when it feels like, oh my gosh, we're the greatest thing ever. And so that's the way it's going to be. And I told everybody that back when, you know, Trump got elected. I said, be ready, it's going to be a roller coaster. I did a video on, on inauguration day, right, saying on the main channel: you be, you be ready for a roller coaster ride, cuz that's exactly what it's going to be. And now people are, are realizing that. And so when you're in a roller coaster ride, you know, of the stock market, you just got to understand you've got to take advantage of these opportunities you get when you get these insane prices on stocks, right? You know, so that's important thing.

And I thought it was kind of funny, MIT actually posted something, uh, also kind of funny, uh, where is it at here? He said, um, uh, quote: "Wait, so we just got rid of all the tariffs on all the big products, all the big products from tariffs, uh, then what did we get out of all this? Uh, a buying opportunity." And that's what we did get out of it: a buying opportunity, right? When people were just willing to sell stocks. And, and you know, you can't take everything Trump does and says seriously. It's just a factual, it's not a political statement. It's just the way I went through the first term. And Trump said a lot of things, and a lot of things he said didn't mean much in the end. People freaked out about it short term, they thought, "Oh my gosh, he means this, he means that, oh my gosh, he's doing this," and then all a sudden things will get removed and like, oh, you know, tamed way down and all this stuff. Like it's just what it is. And so just understand that's the part of the process, and that's what we're going to be going through.

So what does it mean for other stock prices, right? Obviously, it means great things for Apple stock, that's for certain, right? And, and you know, people probably had this information before, just to be quite frank with you, cuz the way Apple stock was moving up there, I think people had likely heard either from Trump himself or from people around Trump that, because you got to understand all these people talk, right? And they're all well connected. And so people knew about the 90-day pause, in my opinion, based upon some of the call action option activity before the 90-day pause was actually announced to the public. Additionally, people knew that this was coming before it actually came out, right? There's a, you know, it's I don't even want to get into the whole corruption aspect of what happens in politics and with these individuals that are at the top and how well connected they are and you know these circles and, and everything that goes on there. But the moral of the story is, based upon kind of call option activity and even stock price movements prior to these announcements, you can tell people know what's happening before it even comes out, right? But don't be surprised if Apple takes another leg higher, um, even though the people that were really in the know already knew, but don't be surprised if Apple takes another leg higher, right? This also bodes, I think, pretty well for, for even companies like Tesla, because this is going to be seen as like, you know, oh, Tesla's probably being helped at least a little bit in regards to situation with certain, you know, components and whatnot. I think this is going to also help out even companies like the Amazons, you know, that could sell a lot of these electronic-related products, right? I think it's going to certainly help out companies like Nvidia, um, you know, it was interesting that AMD popped so big, you know, AMD was one of the best big tech stocks on Friday, right? AMD 93, don't be surprised if AMD is back over 100 this week, you know, don't be surprised. I wouldn't place a call option bet on it, but at the same time if, if you see AMD trading 100 plus this week, 105, 110, don't be surprised at all, man. Um, and honestly, even stocks like Nikes, the ELFs, those sort of stocks, don't be surprised if they bounce huge this week. You know, everybody's going to be paying attention to big tech, what is that, what happens to Apple this week, AMD, Nvidia, stocks like that, which, you know, no doubt those are worth paying attention to, but keep an eye on the Nikes, the Elves, the Estee Lauder, those sorts of stocks this week. It's going to be, uh, that's going to be very, very interesting what, what happens in regards to that, right? And so, and now keep in mind this is just a first set, don't be surprised if, uh, more and more products, you know, end up, end up coming into the space.

Okay, next up here, I want to react to this video from, uh, September 2008. I think it's very important. This is going to be one of the watershed days in financial markets history. It was a manic Monday in the financial markets. The Dow tumbled more than 500 points after two pillars of the street tumbled over the weekend. Lehman Brothers, a 158-year-old firm, filed for bankruptcy. I don't think anyone really expected a bank as big as Lehman to, uh, you know, be in a position that it's in now, brought down by bad mortgage investments. Lehman, which has 25,000 employees, will be liquidated. I'm starting to find another job. Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch, fearing it could be next, agreed in an act of desperation to a shotgun marriage with Bank of America. Merrill, the country's biggest brokerage with 60,000 employees, had been battered by nearly $50 billion in mortgage-related losses. It is definitely a very, very difficult time, and it's not going to get better quickly. So, in just six months, three of the five biggest independent firms on Wall Street have now disappeared: Bear Stearns, which collapsed last spring, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch. Three of the five biggest Wall Street firms go under, you know, in a matter of months. That's why like when, when people bring it back to like, you know, what's been happening recently in the market and the Trump tariffs and like that's like an '08-'09. I'm like, "No, no, no." I'm like, "Oh, this stuff could be reversed in a day, as you're seeing right in front of you, could be taken off, oh, we're, we're going to take this off, we're going to exempt this, we're going to take this off, blah, blah, blah, this can all be fixed." Like that sort of, um, insane event there is a one of a kind. I mean, we're getting numbers out of the big banks in, you've seen stuff like this: JP Morgan profit top jumps 9%, tops Wall Street estimates, you know, net income of 14.6 billion, net income, not revenue, net income of $14.6 billion. This is nothing. I mean, 0% like '08-'09, what's been happening here recently in the market? It couldn't be further from, honestly, that. If you go back to that sort of time period, '08-'09, you know, these financial institutions were also taking massive losses, and you know, three of the five biggest went under. That's Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson tried to reassure investors today: the American people can remain confident in the soundness and the resilience of our financial system. Paulson attempted to broker a deal to sell Lehman over the weekend, but unlike the buyout deal for Bear Stearns, the government would not offer any financial guarantees. I never once considered that it was appropriate to put taxpayer money on the line wi-i- with, with, uh, in resolving Lehman Brothers. It would have required an $85 billion subsidy to keep afloat. Overall, I estimate it's going to cost at least $400 billion if you wanted to bail out the whole bunch. They're certainly not worth it. It's better to let them fail. Insurance giant AIG is the next name on the list of troubled companies. It's looking for $40 billion in bridge loans. Some people say this, this doesn't stop until the housing, housing gets bought. Do you think that's true? I, I think that's probably correct. Veteran trader Art Cashin believes there could be more casualties. This is the, the fifth time we've seen this movie, and you sit on the edge of your seat and you yell at whichever character it is, don't go into that woodshed, but they keep going in. Rip Art Cashin. Um, yeah, 100% right. Oh, man, that's good stuff right there. The Federal Reserve meets tomorrow. The expectation before the events of this past weekend was that the Fed would sit tight on interest rates, but now some are actually forecasting another Fed rate cut tomorrow. Katie and Anthony, I know individual investors don't have their money in Lehman Brothers, it's those big corporate institutions that are most directly impacted by the bankruptcy. So what will happen to the assets? My mom used to love watching Katie Couric back in the day. That are left? Yeah, Lehman, Katie actually has $600 billion worth of assets. Some of those profitable ones, and there are some will get sold up, off the, the others will get divided up in bankruptcy court, and that could take years. It's important to note here, Katie, that one reason the Fed and the Treasury did not inject government money in a deal to try to save Lehman was that they thought many of their clients had time to anticipate all this. Katie: All right, Anthony Mason on Wall Street. Anthony: Thank you. So, yeah, I mean a few things here. I mean, obviously like there's so many things different from what we've been going through recently versus like an '08-'09, 50% crash, right? And it'll just, you through one, right? I mean, you know, we're talking about the biggest financial institutions in the world failing one after one. We're talking financial institutions making so much money they don't know where to put it all, right? But you got to understand like back then a lot of the biggest problems came back to overleverage, right? And overleverage in regards to real estate, could be overleverage in the stock market, like a lot of overleverage in a lot of different places, right? And so the thing that I would say we don't have right now is, I would say we, we've gotten rid of a lot of the overleverage in the market. You're going to see margin amounts down several hundred billion dollars, in my opinion, when you see the new numbers that will come out in about a month from now, two months from now, versus where they are in January. We just got rid of a lot of excess, uh, margin. I almost guarantee you that you'll see it in the numbers very shortly.

Additionally, when it comes to real estate, I would say people are not overleveraged. We have no situation like that. Does not mean prices are fair or right, but at the end of the day it's not my, uh, it's not my place to say what's a fair price for real estate versus what's not, right? Somebody in Manhattan's willing to pay, you know, $10 million for a three-bedroom condo, like they can go pay that, it's not my job to say if that's fair or not, right? Nor is it yours or anybody's, just to be quite frank, that's just the way it is, right? But in regards to real estate market, you have to worry if a lot of people are very highly overleveraged and they're speculating on real estate, buying, you know, a ton of properties, um, just because they believe they're going to go up over the next six to 12 months. We don't really see a lot of that in the market any either. You've gotten like a lot of the flippers have gotten kicked out of the market over the past three years, so you don't have a lot of speculation in real estate either. Like it's been like the flippers, cuz I'm two of the markets I know best are one, my city, Las Vegas, and then I know Phoenix, Arizona very well. And in Las Vegas and Phoenix, those are two of the markets that you get the most flipping activity, like you get a ton of people that love to come and flip properties. I can tell you it's been a ghost town last two or three years in regards to home flippers. Like it's just not that sort of market. Home flippers want to flip homes in a market that's very active, a lot of people moving, a lot of people looking for homes, and lower interest rates. We don't have either one of those, which is why a lot of the flippers have just gone non-existent. They're not interested in this market because there's no money to be made if you got hardly anybody willing to buy homes, right? There goes all your customer base. And if interest rates are very high, then for you to carry, you know, that cost of capital is very expensive. And so if all a sudden you, you, you know, flip a property, you improve it, make it really nice, and you try to sell it three months later, and then it sits on the market another six months, you just eroded a ton of your profits, if not all your profits, right? So we don't have a lot of speculation in real estate now, and like I said, in regards to stocks, a lot of that's kind of been unwound. As far as crypto goes, uh, we still are, have gotten, you know, a lot of that crypto speculation immensely, like off the books really, you know, obviously 2022 was a painful year, and a lot of the ones that were leveraged went under. So I look out there and I think it's a rather healthy environment when it comes to, uh, speculation, when it comes to leverage. I don't think we have massive leverage problems in the system right now. And so if you want to talk about '08-'09, we had massive leverage problems, you know, going into that mess, and that was a whole mess to deal with there.

Additionally, the Fed comes back to the Fed, right? We got a Fed that's very quick to act, and, and in my opinion, the Fed seems to, when the S&P 500 goes down around that 20 to 25% range, that's like the, to me, kind of watching the Fed over the past 16 years, that seems to be the place when the Fed all of a sudden feels like they got to step up. Like if all of a sudden you can get the S&P down 20 to 25%, all a sudden the Fed's like, "Okay, we're going to come in, backstop things," you know, all the, all the big dogs at the Fed, they start coming out in interviews saying that they're willing to do whatever it takes to the market to make sure, you know, we don't have systemic problems and all that stuff. Even this week, you know, was a certain Fed official, I can't remember which one, um, but one of the Fed officials came out and basically their tonality was around like they'll do whatever it takes to, you know, help the market if need be, right? And they're keeping a close eye on everything, which, you know, goes back to the Fed's like that backstop all the time, right? And so, you know, that's a lot of factors you just didn't have back in '08-'09. '08-'09 was that opening to the Fed kind of really becoming very, very dominant. And really since that time period, the Fed's become much more dominant than they ever were before. The Fed always mattered, it's just since '08-'09 they've mattered to a much greater extent, right?

All right, let's listen to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: a recession in the United States. As I said on Monday in a, a talk that I gave at the New York Economic Club, I think we're very close, if not in a recession now. What, what, what, may be, you don't need that, good. What may be, um, happening is a lot of people are buying in advance of the elevated increases, like lines around Apple stores, buying iPhones and all that stuff. But, but I believe so. This is fascinating, he's talking about lines around Apple stores, and then I'm like, is this real? And then MIT posted, you know, about at the Apple store: this place is packed. Guess everyone's excited about no more tariffs. US consumers truly one of a kind. If this is true, and people are actually going out there and buying iPhones left and right because they're hearing all over TikTok and Instagram and YouTube and everywhere that, oh, you know, Facebook, oh, you better go buy an iPhone cuz it's about to go up a bunch in price or something like that, it's just hilarious because that might actually help Apple beat numbers for this quarter when everybody thought they were for sure going to miss, or actually would it, would actually help for next quarter because they're already out of the last quarter, cuz now we're in April, so it would actually help for next quarter. So imagine Apple has better guidance than everybody expects for next quarter cuz everybody's gone out to go buy iPhones and all this stuff. Now at this point in time, oh, it just cracks me up, man. Cracks me up. You never know how these things will work out, uh, but who knows? Maybe Apple's numbers are even better for next quarter than people anticipated because of this stuff. All the uncertainty is really taking everyone, and everyone's wait and see. And so I think you're going to see across the board and just a slowdown until we have more certainty. And you know, we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs, that means longer, more elevated. Speaking of pauses, let's take a quick pause. Let's get the opening bell. We'll be right back here at the project online. There's something you want to buy, or dog gets sick, man, you got trouble, no doubt about it, no doubt about it. All right, Larry, let's, let's continue. I know we got a little bit of background here, but you're making the point, you obviously talked about this. Listen, we were talking about the uncertainty, so many CEOs were speaking to. I've heard this now a number, many number of times, similar to early days of COVID, like five years ago. I just don't know what's coming, I have no, nothing to expect, and so I'm keeping my head down. Is that, is that a fair way to sort of characterize? I think that's a bad answer, because you today you need to run into the uncertainty and try to find solutions. So keeping your head down, I would not like that as an answer as a shareholder with any CEO, right? I mean, to me, this is an opportunity to look for opportunities to, and because of all our clients having uncertainty, we are spending more time with, more conversation with, more clients globally than any time. Our job now is to be, you know, helping, calming, giving them, giving them ideas. So if, if a CEO has said, I would keep my head down, well, you know, I, I guess that would, yes, that was one, the way one characterized it, but I guess it's the uncertainty itself that creates an inability to do long-term planning in terms of capital allocations. There's no question capex is falling right now until you have better understanding where should that capex go. But I, I do believe, as I said in my talk this morning, I do believe the mega trends are still with us, whether it's AI, data centers, infrastructure, uh, the whole, the whole reorientation of our economy. So I think the mega force trends are not going to change by what is happening now, but maybe the execution of some of these trends may be delayed, maybe pushed out longer, but I, I still remain to be optimistic over the long run. Yes, we have to recalibrate. Yes, I do believe we're probably starting, if not we're in a recession. Yes, I think the market is still anticipating, underestimating how high inflation can get. If you factor in all the tariffs, right, you factor in all these other issues, it's going to be quite additive. I mean, I, I, I read in a report that...

If you just take the tariffs in the cost of home building, the average new home could be up as much as 26%. We already have a housing affordability problem. None of this sounds any good to me, Larry. I mean, and it's all self-inflicted, by the way. None of it needed to happen. This is not a pandemic; this is not a financial crisis. This is something that we've created, as I said also on Monday.

United States post. Yeah, but that's the whole point that people are—were missing in, you know, that haven't been buying the dip, especially this past week with these incredible opportunities, past couple weeks, right? Is they miss the whole point about, like, well, if it's self-inflicted, it could also not be self-inflicted, right? Like if I punch myself in the face and say, "Oh my gosh, you're causing so much damage," but if I just stop punching myself in the face, well, you know, then the damage stops, right? And so, you know, just it's just fascinating—fascinating to think everybody, you know, Trump—they think like they believe everything Trump says and does, and it's just like Trump is a different—it's a different individual, man. He's going to do, say a lot of things, and it doesn't mean you got to take him at his word. That's all I'll say about that.

World War II was a global stabilizer; we are the global destabilizer. Right? And that's a very—you know, that's a very hard thing to say because I pride ourselves of being, you know, bringing the leadership, bringing the conversations. But I will say the power of US capitalism is still alive. I will say more and more times clients worldwide are asking for our—you know, at least at the CEO level—they're asking for our vision, our views. Uh, they still want to engage; they still want to build. So I'm less—long term—I'm less worried about some of these issues, but in the short run, I'm—I'm petrified at some of these issues. Petrified.

Let's speak of being petrified. Uh, you and I are old enough to remember when Nixon went to China, opened the door or the go—you know, the walking away from the gold standard, right? The same couple of years, and I think that there was mass anxiety then, going the other way. Did we really think that we could have a great relationship with Mao, who was a mass burner? Did we think that we could actually do business with China? We did a billion with them the next year, and then we—next thing we know, we're doing 100 billion. Now we're doing 438 billion, and now we want to do zero. How does zero impact our country? Well, we've had now 20-plus years of supply chain creations, um, and, you know, another economic force, Jim, post-World War II was consumerism. So we built the whole foundation of economic policy around consumerism, providing Americans with the cheapest products could always, and so that was a foundation. Now, did that come at a cost? And some of our communities were decimated where they lost jobs? Absolutely. So maybe we went too far on the whole concept of consumerism, but let's be clear, the major economic foundation was on based on consumerism, and so we wanted our companies to go around the world to find the best places to provide the highest quality at the cheapest prices, uh, so we could consume more, and we always thought that that type of consumption was the most uh progressive form of economic behavior. More people could have more, and that was one of—that was one of the fundamental reasons why the United States was the leader, yes, because our—our citizens were huge consumers. By now changing this equilibrium, it's going to be harder to consume, and we're going to have limited inflation. Do we?

Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, man, jobs come, jobs go. Like that's just part of the system, right? You know, when I started my real estate marketing business back in 2015, right, like there was still a relatively newer concept in—in terms of like having—hiring a professional photographer, um, who just photos real estate properties, right? Um, go in and take properties, and I was doing the drone photography and videography as well, and that was like insanely new. Like I was like—like no one was really doing that. Like when I would go to people and show them like my drone photos of properties, you know, of luxury homes and videos and things like that, people are like blown away. Back then it was like crazy, right? Um, you know, someday that's not even going to be a thing, you know what I mean? Like that job will be eliminated, like probably not this decade, right? There's going to be plenty more real estate photographers and drone photographers and things like that, but 50 years from now, there probably won't even be—be a need for somebody like that, right? The—like the way technology will evolve, like it won't even be a thing anymore. And so that's just—that's just jobs—that's just creation over time, right? Like, you know, jobs come, jobs go, new opportunities exist, and for you as an individual, you got to find where the newer opportunities are, right? You got to find where that next opportunity is, like I did with when I started my real estate marketing business and understanding, oh, this is a big opportunity here, right? Um, and so that's the name of the game, man. That's the name of the game in regards to that.

So fun times in the market now. I don't know if you guys got to see this video on the main channel I put out on financial education. Well, the last two videos definitely—must watch. This one's called, "The stock market is easy money right now." That one you'll definitely want to watch, but then this one you'll definitely—definitely want to watch, cuz this one I went over 20 stocks, uh, that are buys right now, and I went over their share price right now, and you know, talked about each of those 20 stocks. And so that video—"Trump terrorist will make millionaires in 2025, here's how"—watch that video. Trust me, that's a good one. Okay. Other than that, pin comment down there to get access to my private stock group, private wealth group, uh, Discord chat and thousandx.com.