Transcription
Hey everyone, I'm charting man Dan with the chart guys. We have worked our way through a good bit of the earnings season with a very bullish week this past week. SPY has now closed green nine days in a row. The last time that happened was 2004. Does that mean we're in the most bullish environment that we've been in in the last 21 years? I don't think so. But let's see what the charts are saying, as a lot of fundamental bears are frustrated after this past week.
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All right. So, as I mentioned, an extremely impressive week for the Bulls. Earnings helped a little bit. Apple and Amazon not so much. It was more so Meta and Microsoft that had a significant bullish reaction earlier in the week. And again, the fact that we've gone up nine green days in a row in SPY, you would think, oh, that's a really bullish environment. No, it's more of an offsides environment where uh bears are getting surprised a little bit with the magnitude of the bounce. And you know, you can look and say, well, some bullish fundamental developments have happened, but in reality, we don't have any trade deals at this point. We're back to a level that's higher than when the tariff deal was announced, and there's still a massive amount of uncertainty in the market overall. So, fundamentally speaking, you know, it doesn't make much sense that we're higher than where we were, which is why I love to default to charts and not let fundamentals skew my bias too much, because price doesn't lie.
So, with where we stand right now, we have some names forming monthly higher lows. You look at the NASDAQ futures chart; monthly higher low is set. And as I've been saying, I don't have conviction as, you know, every leg up we get, I have more conviction that a fear bottom is in. But I am still open to the possibility. Again, there's only three things that can happen from here. Through the summer, V-shaped to a higher high, which is a three-month long-term bull flag, lower high on the monthly, and a tightening range through the summer. I'm keeping an eye out for that to be a possibility; that if I have to choose, that's probably the most likely one for me, just because uh things slow down a bit in the summer. We've had massive volatility. Generally, we digest that sideways. But we could also lower high and lower low. The one thing that is key is that if you're going to drop down and and break the fear low, you cannot do that without big standout bare volume. You can keep grinding higher back to all-time highs without bull volume. It's not a a fair game between bulls and bears in that regard. The broader market will drift higher on low volume. It will not break any kind of significant supports without high bare volume. It's just the way that it works. So keep that in mind. You have to have notable bare volume if we're going to head back down to those lows.
But at this point, you know, we've seen bounce retracement sizes that are significant. You know, 63% bounce retracement in the NASDAQ here. And there were three instances this past week where bulls surprised me and showed me that they meant business. The first, so on Wednesday, the the third time bulls have impressed me the last four trading days. The first was two weeks ago, last Thursday. Bulls hold support and don't lead into easy daily consolidation. Remember, I talked about this in the video last week. I believe this is where we rejected from resistance yet again. And we did not see SPY break the low of that day into daily consolidation. Okay, that's bull standing out. I now favor that this sideways range is going to break bullish, and we're going to see new bounce highs over the Trump pump high. Number two, Monday V-shaped recovery bounce on the hourly. So, we started Monday with a pretty decent drop, but by the end of the day, you know, that's that's a big drop where we say, "All right, bears can potentially confirm an hourly downtrend." They've given themselves space to work with. We V-shape into the end of the day, and then the next day back to a new high. That was example number two. And then number three on Wednesday, V-shape hourly oversold bounce. So, this is not a backburner setup. And again, Google chart guys backer. That's the strategy that's made the mo me the most money as in my trading crew here. It's not a back burner setup because we're not in a very strong trending market. Daily, weekly uptrend, blue sky breakout, but we hit hourly oversold on futures and V-shaped recovery to higher highs. That's the kind of price action that you see in a very strong bull market environment because any little win that the bears get instantly evaporated and gone in a flash. And so that's what's happened now.
And again, it's it's a very impressive move. All that said, I don't have a ton of high conviction in the short term. I' I've been in this standpoint for the last week where, okay, I had conviction. We're going to break the bounce highs and get a little bit more follow-through at the least. But with where we stand right now, uh I have decided to take, you know, the the lean in my IRA swing positions are are bullish. I offset them a bit. I did sell 10% of my hedges into that hourly oversold drop. Wish it was more, but again, I don't have very high conviction. So, I've taken the the route of just significantly constricting the movement that my IRA sees while I wait for things to sort themselves out. And of course, I'm still day trading, and that's been going very well in a a consistent small base hit mindset. I'm calling this my less is more period where, you know, I'm taking one or two trades a day and done. And my consistency has really it's it's one of the most consistent periods of my trading career right now over the last month and a half. Not nearly one of the most profitable, but uh very different goals if you're trying to be most profitable or if you're trying to be most consistent.
All that said, uh my my you know, my IRA, my goal with my IRA is beat the S&P 500. And right now, SPY is about uh down 3% from the start of the year, and my IRA is down 2% from the start of the year. Um so I'm comfortable with where I'm at to be able to just pause and let things shake out for a bit. I'm in no rush to do anything there. Um so just wanted to give some insight into where I stand. But we got the 4-hour EMA 12 as a guide on the futures chart. Again, we held it most of the bounce. We had that flush V-shaped fake out for sure, and now we're holding it again. And another strong day on Friday. Uh, you know, the S&P 500 has bounced 18% from the lows. And with where we stand, if we were going to head back to the fear low, it would have to be on high bear volume, but 15% drop to get back there. And to get to all-time highs, we need 8%. So much closer to all-time highs percentage-wise than those fear lows. So, congrats to the bulls. That's a nice move. 18% bounce, though. Look at 2022. This was an 18% bounce, 19% that rolled over to lower lows. So, that just reminds me, okay, it's possible. You know, we went straight up for a month. Okay, it's over. Bottoms in. Bulls are back in charge, and then we rolled over. And again, that just reminds me of the possibility to stay open. And if we look back, then look at the volume. So that's the 18% bounce on SPY. Look at the volume pick up. This orange line is the 20-day average volume. And as we started to roll over, the volume starts accelerating up. And that's the bears needing the volume to prove it, which they had. So, we'll be keeping an eye on that because right now I anticipate the volume is leveling out and it's going to keep dropping down as as volume starts to dwindle, but we'll be keeping an eye on how it shapes up.
So, as far as resistance levels from here, SPY, we're looking at the high of Friday 568. You can see that's right around this top here, right before tariff, what was liberation, whatever they called it, resistance being tested there. And then the next level would be up at 576. So this is a clear resistance zone where we topped out on a bounce attempt that was a bare flag and rolled over significantly. But as far as the daily uptrend is concerned, we'll say anything above the low of Wednesday 54152 is a daily higher low. And the daily uptrend is going to be our guide from here. And there's a lot of names that you know are patiently waiting for weekly higher lows from a swing trade perspective. I'm watching the Metal Miners which we'll get to for weekly higher lows. PLTR will certainly be on a weekly higher low list. WMT, Walmart, there's there's a bunch of names that have bounced significantly enough where we know a weekly higher low is the most likely result of next consolidation.
Just got to give a shout out to our super stack indicator. Um again, when when it's aligning all extremes together, we had daily oversold superstack extremes on the daily, the 12 hour, the 4 hour, the hourly, the 30-minute, 15 minute, 5 minute. Altogether, that was the low, and we've now bounced massively from there. Nice hourly super stack on the way up. Hourly super stack on the way up. So again, that just shows us short-term extreme oversold leading to continuation, which is exactly what the bulls want. Hope my phone didn't break. Which is exactly what the bulls want to see. And so how I use that information with my trading, Amazon was daily super stack right near the lows. That had me interested in a day trade bounce. Was able to position, sell a bit, keep a swing, and so now I've got an Amazon position where my break even on what I have left is down under that 161 low. And I'm either going to sell that, you know, 200 plus for a potential monthly lower high. I'm going to let it run to new all-time highs. If the bulls continue to impress, and worst case scenario, I'll stop out break even. And so that is my approach for swing trading. And that's how I use extreme oversold environments that the superstack helps us pinpoint uh to try and position for longer term uh recoveries and higher lows. I mean Amazon on the three-month time frame. It's trying for a long-term three-month higher low. We'll see how it shakes out. I don't need to know if that's a long-term bottom or not. I have now a risk-free opportunity where if it is, I benefit. And that's again just my trading style in a nutshell. I don't know what the future holds. I position myself in low-risk, high-reward scenarios so that regardless of how it plays out, I do all right. SMH.
So, another solid move here as well. Again, daily higher low is the low of Wednesday for most individual names and sectors that we're going to be looking at. 20389. As far as resistance, there is this zone. Same deal. This was the bare flag before the way down. So 221 to 232 wide range there. But that's where the resistance is that we are now heading into. In the video last week, I mentioned, you know, this is your second chance. Boomer Boomers specifically, if you were uncomfortable with how much we dropped, you're using this past week to exit some of your positions and size down uh as the potential of a second chance opportunity. You know, if we roll over again, then you will be more protected. If we V-shaped to higher highs, you'll miss out, leave some money on the table. But again, you know, this this that was your warning sign, and we'll see how it shakes out. But definitely keeping an eye out for some consolidation this week after the bulls had so much control last week. I think we got the FOMC, right? FOMC coming up. Definitely got to keep an eye on that.
Tesla knocking on the door here again. Many names setting the monthly higher low. Tesla's trying to Tesla monthly chart is certainly a name where I'd be looking for an equilibrium. So, if we set this monthly higher low, we're looking for a bounce and then a monthly lower high because there's tons of space for it to form. I'm a lot more confident that Tesla's going to give us a monthly tightening range through the summer. Well, I need another leg up. I need to see 325 plus. But if we get that, uh, much more conviction in an individual name giving us a tightening equilibrium than an indicy because of the way the markets are structured. But, uh, lots of space for that monthly lower high. Bulls just want to see 50% bounce retracement, which is a lot more needed. 350 would be 50% bounce retracement, but we're knocking on the door of resistance here. Tried it again on Friday and rejected. Look at these levels where it's the 290s that are stubborn. We topped out at 29185, 294s, 293s, 294s. I ended up shorting Tesla on uh Friday morning. Had a nice little runner, but once we double bottomed at the low of Thursday, knew that we probably weren't going very further and stopped out my runner short position on that inverse head and shoulders. Very nice recovery into the end of the day. Uh, but loving the loving the trading on some of these volatile names. I' I've pretty much been sticking to uh Tesla as one of my main traders. Also, some of the crypto names like C recent uh not an IPO, but an SPAC. Um, the quantum names we got to check in on, they had a big Friday. So, but Tesla is my my number one go-to day trader uh in the short term here.
Financial sector is the strongest major sector. Again, to get back to all-time highs from here, we're looking at 6%, and if we were going to drop to lower lows, we're looking at 15%. Daily uptrend is our guide for full bull control. Anything above 4750 is a daily higher low. We are at a resistance zone, approaching this 5033 5091 where we topped out on the last bounce, and again you know impressive bounce almost a stairst step recovery looking a bit V-shape, and things changed quickly of course um again just being a bit cautious of monthly lower highs eventually here XLV.
So one more thing I want to talk about: the harder we run before any deal is announced announced any trade deal, the more likely that the announcement of that trade deal will be a sell the news event. I don't have high conviction in this moment to say the trade news is going to be a sell the news event, but just know that if we have the action that we've had the last two weeks and if that continues, if this coming week we have another green week where bulls just steamroll bears, uh that every time that happens, that will increase my probability that we sell the news on the first trade deal that gets announced. Um, so I think a lot of the bounce that we're seeing is some of that pricing in. But, uh, again, just be aware of that. I mean, if you could ask what what would be the most confusing market for fundamental traders, I'd say V-shaped bounce when nothing has really changed fundamentally and the ports are empty and some small trucking companies are going bankrupt, but here we are above pre-tariff levels and then get a deal and roll over into weakness. You would just confuse fundamental bears and then fundamental bulls significantly.
XLV is one of the weakest major sectors. Again, we started yearly consolidation for the first time in a long time. I'm watching this potential 4-hour rising wedge. So, keeping an eye on this zone. We're back testing weekly EMA resistance. Keeping an eye on that. Uh so, definitely, you know, names like UNH struggling to find a bottom. I'd love to see a gap down open on UNH to try a bounce attempt. It would be the same thing, you know, gap down open day trade, sell partial with a larger position size into any initial bounce, turn it into a swing position with smaller position size, get my cost basis down near that low and try and let a longer term bounce play out. But I'm being picky. I don't ever trade these names. And so, if this trade is going to come to me, give me a ton of weakness and then give me that gap down to look for the exhaustion bounce. Again, look at here. So, tons of weakness and there were a couple tiny little gaps mixed in there, but the biggest gap down marks that low before a meaningful bounce. You'll often see that with exhaustion gaps at the top and then exhaustion gaps at the bottom. Netflix is an example. I'm looking for an exhaustion gap at the top. Monster move. We've closed higher than the open nine days in a row. We have a stairstep pattern essentially 16 days in a row aside from one little wick. If this name were to gap up, I'd be watching for it to be a an exhaustion gap up leading to daily consolidation. It's just how I try and shift my probabilities a little bit in my favor. Uh looking for exhaustion to mark a pivot.
MSOS cannabis. So solid week overall, but the the pumps are short-lived in the sense that we don't get multiple days of follow-through. You know, we get a pump day into consolidation, a pump day into consolidation. We got multiple inside bars. If we break the upper 290s to start this coming week, daily consolidation is underway. Anything above 261 is a daily higher low. The daily uptrend is our guide. But if we're going to prove a long-term bottom, we need to confirm the weekly uptrend. And so we're keeping an eye out for weekly consolidation sometime in the next week or two. Losing the daily uptrend tells us weekly consolidation is coming. And so I'd be watching, you know, if we get a big pullback to start the week, I'd then be watching for the potential of a head and shoulders pattern or something like that. Uh but definitely interested in the sector. Traded it more this week than the last seven months easy because of this volatility. I did trade it in both directions, and again the headlines starting to pick up a little bit. So starting to pay attention a bit more to the sector.
MSTR. So, we were looking for Bitcoin and MSTR monthly high or low as a top watch into the end of April, start of May. And we've gotten that now. And my swing position MSTY, it's going real well. Definitely a time to be taking a little bit of profit to be in complete control of this trade. Same deal. We know we will have to sit through weekly consolidation eventually after we've gone 60% off of these lows, but bulls are in full control. We're testing resistance of 40442. Some of the other crypto stocks, the miners are weaker, but they're trying to put in a bit of a bottom. MRA, I haven't really traded these names, the the miners, because MSTR is so much stronger. Even Coin not really nearly as strong. So, I'm just keeping it simple and focusing on Bitcoin and MSTR for the time being. And you can see IBIT, which is the Bitcoin ETF, monthly higher low is set. Are we headed to all-time highs in the near term? We'll see. Same deal. Need a weekly uptrend. We're coming off the low. If we confirm a weekly uptrend, we'll be knocking on the door of an all-time high. So, keep an eye out for that weekly consolidation in the short term.
Dollar. Oh, let's go. Quantum RGTI big day again. I'm still watching this as a weekly equilibrium. We've been watching this for months and months and months and months. But key resistance is 1140. We're approaching that level. We've got the base of support. I hope we reject and keep tightening up just because I want equilibriums to get as tight as possible before a break to look for further follow-through when they do break. Big day, big volume. Definitely lead bulls on Friday. You can see NQ stood out but is not breaking resistance yet. Got to get to that higher high on the daily chart. I'll be watching NQ for a monthly tightening range as the most likely scenario. Again, again, another name like Tesla where I have much more confidence in a monthly lower high versus the indices.
QBTS, another name, solid day Friday, up testing the recent highs. And so, again, these names oftentimes will pop on my radar saying, "All right, these are names to be looking to day trade when you got ranges of 10, 15% in a day." Uh, definitely worthwhile to be paying attention to. These ones ran away from me on Friday. I didn't trade them. Well, I did get a little short in on one of them. It was a nice little quick win, but um definitely paying attention to how RGTI breaks that weekly range. Dollar weekly bounces underway. Tons of space for a weekly lower high. And with that, gold weekly consolidation underway. Again, the thesis end of April into May was watch for gold to top out. Watch for Bitcoin to set a monthly higher low. They have been inverse to each other for a couple years at this point, very significantly, and they're still acting that way. Again, that said, there's tons of space for a weekly higher low still on gold, silver. We're looking for a weekly higher low in an equilibrium and miners watching for the weekly higher low.
So, these miners ran away from me uh when I exited on the fear and locked in some profit on some swing trades and made an error. Error being leaving money on the table. Again, when I am in my conservative trading mindset, which I've been in the last few years, my errors are leaving money on the table, not losing significant money. And so, obviously, I don't want to do that, but I'll take that in terms of giving profit back. So, I'm looking for the weekly higher low. We're back testing previous resistance or at least approaching and starting to keep an eye out. I was watching Friday for a potential entry. Didn't see anything I liked. I'm watching this gold back test to previous support. Now resistance. That's going to be key here. Look at all this support. Hold it. Hold it. Hold it. Hold it. Reject. Perfect rejection spot. If bulls can regain that, I'll be looking for the weekly higher lows to be shaping up. So I am keeping an eye on those miners.
Oil. We were looking for this weekly lower high as the most likely scenario. Soon as you break 6153, it is underway. And we followed through significantly. Good bit of headlines this past week. Iran, oil, all that. But, uh, most likely scenario following through. Remember, we were watching this rising wedge, and sometimes rising wedges take their sweet time before they roll over where yes, this broke bare, didn't really roll over for days and then it did. So, the rising wedge helped us scout the weekly lower high. Patient, patient, patient, roll over. And now we're watching bulls are going to hope for a two-day tightening range. You know, there's our low, top of the bounce. Can we form a higher low and tighten up? Bulls need to show up to start this coming week if we're going to see something like that.
And natural gas. Natural gas is potentially shaping up this monthly higher low. Again, exited a swing that I had for a while for the first time in years knowing monthly consolidation was likely and now big enough weekly bounce where we're watching for, you know, could this be a weekly head and shoulders? Yeah. But I am keeping an eye out. Can this bounce be big enough? And again, this is one of my trading styles where if I'm entering into weakness, it's a super stack. It's extremes. It's historical over oversold RSI, whatever. Anything less than that, bulls give me a reason. So, I'm not trying to nail the bottom on natural gas. Give me a big bounce that I miss. Show me, okay, bulls are proving something. I now know the most likely scenario is a weekly higher low. I then scout that weekly higher low, knowing we must confirm a weekly uptrend if we're going to set a monthly higher low. And so I don't have high conviction yet on the weekly, but every little push up we get from here increases probabilities that a weekly higher low is the most likely result of the next bounce. And that's how I got the last bounce. From these lows, where was it? So from these lows, this was a big enough weekly bounce. Again, missed it. Wasn't trying to nail a bottom into weakness. I missed a 53% bounce in natural gas.
A trade's over, right? I missed it. I can't chase. No, you just wait for the higher low. So, we pull back. I get the weekly higher low. I know that's the most likely scenario because I sat by and I watched the bulls prove something to me, get my attention. I get the higher low and we follow through. I do this on the five-minute day trading, the hourly. So often it's show me the initial move, whatever side it is, bull or bear, and then I look for the higher, lower, lower, high, once you have proven something to me.
And now we've had so much strength in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recently where I'm in the opposite mindset where I don't care if I miss the first big drop from the bears from here. But that will be telling me, okay, bears are finally proving something after two weeks of proving nothing. And that will get my attention and have me start trading bearish from a swing trade perspective again, which I haven't done in a while. So, don't be afraid to miss the first move. Oftentimes that is what is required to get our attention to know that something is shifting.
All right, appreciate you watching. Don't forget to do good things. Check out the two-week free trial with the link in the comments. Establish those game plans. Burden on bears. Prove to us that things are shifting in the short term. Confirm an hourly downtrend. Lose the daily uptrend. Those are the first two check marks that have to happen for anything to be shifting. And if they're going to do it, it's into these resistance zones where we topped out right before the tariff big drop. See you soon.
Today we're hilling potatoes. You just put a base up around the bottom of the plant. I haven't done those yet to ensure that the tubers have space to grow because they want to stay under the ground the whole time. And so you do this maybe three times as the plants keep getting bigger and bigger. Potatoes are easy to grow. Look at those rhododendrons. It's like 20 feet tall. That [Music] tree's trying to make it. See if I can stand it up somehow. I need to rent something big. Lilacs are popping off. I put my mattress on the floor and open up all the windows and at night fall asleep to the frogs and wafting clouds of lilac fragrance.