Transcription
What is up everybody? Welcome to DFS by the numbers and welcome to the betting breakdown video for UFC Belgrade. We have Eros Medic going against Daniel Rodriguez and looking forward to this card. I think on paper it's one of the most violent cards of the year. Lots of action, lots of fun fights. Cannot wait for it.
We got an early start time. These fights are kicking off at 10:00 in the morning Eastern time. I'll be on the Fight Companion with Uncle Wheey. So check us out. But yeah, looking forward to this car. Before I break it down, if you guys could do me a favor, smash the like button, subscribe to the channel, leave me a comment. All three of those things go a very long way. If you want to support me more and get extra content and early content, check out dfsbythenumbers.com. I already have two bets for next week, UFC Vegas 120. And then we got Contender Series coming up in two weeks, so check it out.
And yeah, this is a card where I don't know, it's a very chalky card. You got a ton of favorites, ton of chocked, you know, totals. Um, so I thought I'd be like a little bit lighter than I was, but a couple spots are sticking out, but it was kind of tough to find some value on this card. If you're a fan of the parlays, the, you know, four, five, six, seven, eight, you know, leg parlays, I think it's uh, you know, a solid card. I think a lot of these chalky spots probably come through, but I say we get into it.
We're going to start with the first fight of the night. Stephanie Luciano going against Marine Marina Spasic. Uh, yeah, nothing here. I mean, I think Luciano wins. It's just minus 315 on a fight that, you know, goes the distance. Space will be the hometown fighter. Probably, you know, wide here. Um maybe like the plus three and a half on Space, but I don't really feel a need to get involved. I I lean Luciano, though. I'm actually a big fan of Luciano. I think she's pretty solid.
Uh Lake of Popic, I do have a bet here. I have a halfunit shot on Lake to win by knockout at plus 300. I was shocked. I mean, I'm not shocked, but you know, Poppik weighed in at 215, whereas Lea weighed in at like 260, 2 and a half. I mean, that's almost a 50 lb weight difference. You know, I thought Poppik would maybe come in like the 220s, but 215 is is kind of crazy, man. I mean, um, Lake is just going to be so much bigger. Leica is going to be the hometown guy, and I think Leica just should get on top here and smash this guy. You know, Poppik's not a heavyweight, you know. Poppik's a guy that's fought at middleweight, you know, before. So, yeah, I think Leica wins. I like Leica as a parlay piece. Quite frankly, I I'm surprised the line is as close as it is. You know, Leica is just going to be just so much bigger and he's not bad either. He's got good striking, power on the feet, good wrestling, good grappling, good grounder bounce. So, yeah, I know Poppik's a guy that, you know, is experienced and he's fought some solid competition, but you know, he's coming in on short notice at the wrong weight class. So, give me Lea here. And I think that knockout's really live at plus 300. Half unit shot on that.
Next we got Nita Milo Seavich going against Haley Cowan. I like Milo Seavich here quite a bit. Um you know it's a shame she's minus 500 but yeah I think she wins. I think she finishes. Haley Cowan Cowan has four losses inside the distance. Three by sub, one by knockout. Milo Sevich has you know multiple knockouts on the record. A couple submissions. I think the sub super live for Milo Sevich but I'm just taking the inside the distance here. One unit on the inside the distance for Nina plus 105. Haley Cowan. Just not sure what she's good at outside of being big. You know, she's gonna have the the size advantage here. But, you know, if the fight hits the mat, I could see her making a mistake and getting subbed. And on the feet, you know, I could see her getting hurt as well. So, I like Nina Milo Savage to win. I think this is the last time we see Haley Cowan in the UFC.
Next, we got Matteas Rexi going against Kyle Preple. Yeah, Ron Beexi get the biggest favorite on the card. And it's kind of warrant. I mean, he can make it look warranted if he grapples here. If he grapples, he's going to, you know, run right through Preple. And even on the feed, he could run right through him as well. Um, I took Matteas Rambeck to get a win in rounds one or rounds two at plus 105 for one unit. Um, could see a KO, could see a sub. I do think the sub's super live, but I also think that Ramsey doesn't have the best fight IQ. So, um, yeah, I think the leg kicks could be big. Also, Rexi does have a ton of power in the feet. I think he should go out there and finish prepack whether it's KO or sub. I lean sub, but I would just take the ITD or the the round one or round two to be safe there. So one unit on the round one or round two forexky at plus 105.
Next we got Bogdong Grad going against Dennis Bazookia. Nothing sticking out here. Eileen Grad, you know, he's just not a minus 200 type guy and I would never bet Dennis Bazookia ever. So yeah, big giant pass there.
Next we got Borislav Nicollet going against Mark Vagden. I like Nicolich here. I like him inside the distance. I have one unit on it at plus 180. You know, this guy Vagden, he's tough, but he's so freaking hitable. He's extremely undersized for the division and he got hurt a ton against John Castanada. He went to an absolute war with Martin. He's taken, you know, lifetimes worth of damage these last two fights. And Nicolage hits very, very hard. He has a very opportunistic submission game as well. He's going to be the hometown guy and he's just going to be so much bigger. Big height advantage, massive reach advantage. I think Logan might be able to have some success early on, but he slows down in every fight. His striking defense is just not there. And I think he's going to eat some big big shots here against Nicolage. So I think Nicolich wins inside the distance. One unit plus 180. I also like the under two and a half at plus I think it's like plus 105 plus 110. I don't mind that either. I think it's going to be a war, but I think Nicolich is very dangerous. 15 out of his 16 wins I believe come inside the distance. Vagden has not been knocked out yet, but I think that can come here. But I also think Vlogn could be like club and subbed as well. So give me the ITD for Nicolage here plus 180.
Next we got Michael Oliver going Oban Elliot. I like Olive here quite a bit. I have two units on Olivera to win inside the distance at minus 129. Uh just take the ITD guys. I mean on some books you're actually getting a better price on the inside the distance compared to the KO. So just get the ITD in there just in case. Obviously, it's very unlikely, but you know, club and sub, you know, it could it could happen. But yeah, I think it's KO, but yeah, on ITD, um, you know, I think he's going to destroy Oban Elliott. I'm kind of surprised the line is not wider. You know, a lot of hype on Olive as there should be. This guy's very good. Um, and Elliot, I think, is have to wrestle, grapple to win this fight. I just don't see it. I think Olive is going to march him down and and break him and knock him out. LA. It's been finished in three of his four losses, two by knockout. I think both came in the third round. I think it's like a two three Olive Vera KO. So, give me Oliver Vera inside the distance. Two units at minus 129.
Next, we got Lud Klein going against Tofi Mousai. Um, yeah, I like Klein here. The line is kind of getting away though. I see on some books he's like minus 280 now. Don't know if I love that, especially coming off of an injury, but yeah, I like Klein. Um, not really a big fan of Mousiah who's 36 years old, who can't grapple, who I think the durability is waning a bit. Um, thought about maybe some violence here, but ended up staying away. Lean Clyde with the line is kind of getting out of hand a little bit.
Uh Milos Janes going against Noah Guggnon. Um, it's a weird one here. Jan is actually the dog. Uh, I think a pick makes sense. I mean, I I was very impressed with both these guys. Both these guys extremely dangerous. Both these guys in 100% finish rate. I thought about the under, but it's one of those where it's like, man, I I think it's a big trap. Both these guys are really good finishers, but both these guys do seem pretty tough, so I could maybe see it going over. Definitely have a strong lean one way or another, whether it's a side or total, so I ended up staying away from this one.
Next, we have Velasto Chapo going against Gilbert Erbina. Yeah, this is a shame. This is one of the most violent fights in a while. Chepo's one of the most violent fighters on the roster. He's up there with like McKenna and Torres, but they're making you pay those type of prices. minus a,000 for the fight doesn't go. Like what am I supposed to do there? The under one and a half rounds is minus 300. No thank you. Um, the Chapo I mean the Chapo finish props are minus 285 inside the distance minus 250 KO. You know I'm just just unplayable. Unplayable for me. So uh under one and a half I guess could be a parlay piece I suppose. Um, but yeah, not for me. But yeah, Chapo probably KO1. It's a horrible price but probably KO1. If Ferbina is able to get the grappling going maybe he can find a sub. But yeah, nothing on this one. I think it's gonna be a fun violent fight though and it shouldn't last too long.
Robert Valentine, Dusco Todorovich, the most kind of disgusting fight in the car. Like it's it's tough to lay minus 160 on Valentine. At the same time, it's tough to, you know, bet on Dusk Todorovich. These are guys that you're typically looking to fade Valentine. I think he's probably not going to last much longer in the UFC. Same for Dusco Todorovich. So, uh, it's a dog or pass, but I if I bet on one of these guys and, you know, I lost that bet, I I wouldn't be able to show my face the the next day. So, yeah, it's, uh, it's a pass. I thought maybe like the fight ends by KO could be interesting, I guess. But, I just really don't want to have money on the fight, so it's a pass.
Alexander Rakage going against Martine Tyber. If you are a parlay boy and looking for a parlay leg, I think Rakage is a fine parlay piece this week, you know. I I How does he lose to Martine Tyber, man? Like that would be embarrassing, you know. That'd be like a That should be like a prison sentence if he went out there and lost to Marin Tyber. Um so I think Rakage wins. How does he win? I don't know. I mean I I it could be a awful boring decision. I kind of lean that way. Could be a knockout. You know, Tyber, it's Chinny. He's been knocked out six times, but I just it's hard to have faith in Rakage, who has not won a fight in five years, who's not finished a fight in like seven years, but Rakage, I think, should win.
Next, we got Navajo Sterling going against Yan Bohovic. Uh yeah, Sterling here. Again, just don't like the price. You know, they're they're kind of pricing me out on a lot of these fights. This is one of them. I think Sterling wins probably decision. Fight goes could be interesting, but nothing really sticking out here. I I'm not taking the 44y old Yamahovic. I'm just not doing that. Um yeah, Sterling Shival minus 315. It's It's a bit It's a bit steep.
And then we have Erosish, Daniel Rodriguez. I like the under one and a half rounds here as a parlay piece. Maybe I should make a parlay. Like it's a so many parlay pieces on this card. Maybe maybe I'll make a parlay and put it in the comments. But um I took Eros Medic KO12 minus 105 for two units. Um I'm not convinced. Like I think D-Rod's done. I think Drod's washed. I' I've thought he's looked bad his last like five or six fights. And I know he's on a threeight winning streak, but you know, look who he's winning against. Um, Ponzibio who's completely washed. Morona who's completely washed and Kevin Holland who showed the fight highly compromised. So yeah, it should be Metachir. He's a massive favorite hometown fighter. Big opportunity. Tons and tons of power. I think he knocks out D-Rod in the first or second round. So um yeah, that's it. Keeping it short and sweet. Uh Medic KO12 for for two units minus 105. Micah Olivea inside the distance two units minus 129. Nicolich inside the distance one unit plus 180. Ron Beexy round one or round two one unit plus 105. Milo Sevich inside the distance one unit plus 105. And Jovon Lea by KO half a unit plus 300.
Um maybe I'll I'll cook up a parlay for parlay legs. I mean there's a ton. I think Lake is a parlay piece. Milo Seavich is a parlay piece. Probably not Ron Beexi because his line's gotten blown out. Um Oliveivera parlay piece. What else? Chapo Urbina under parlay piece. Rakage parlay piece. Medic Rodriguez under one and a half parlay piece. Like the parlay boys are going to go crazy on this card. I feel like so yeah. Get give me give me those for their potential parlay pieces. Maybe I'll cook something up. And I do want to keep it light this week. Um so yeah guys, that's all all I got for UFC Belgrade. Check us out on the Fight Companion tomorrow at 10:00 in the morning Eastern time. Be there or be a square. Smash a like on your way out. Subscribe on your way out and best of luck. We'll see you guys soon.