Transcription
This is my kitchen table, and it's also my filing system.
Over much of the past three decades, I've been an investor, the highest calling of mankind. I've often thought was private equity. And then I started interviewing. Oh, I watch your interviews 'cause I know how to do it. I've learned in doing my interviews how leaders make it to the top. I asked him how much he wanted. He said, 250. I said, Fine. I didn't negotiate with him. I didn't know due diligence. I have something I'd like to sell, and how they stay there. You don't feel inadequate now because being only the second wealthiest man in the world. Is that right?
The largest sovereign wealth fund in the world is the sovereign wealth fund of Norway. It's overseen by Nicolai Tanja, a former Norwegian hedge fund manager who now has a chance to oversee the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, by far. I had a chance in Davos to sit down with Hanjin to ask him what it's like to be responsible for a fund that large.
"Tell us what Norges Investment Management really does and what your job is."
"Well, the job is to run the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, and it has many facets, of course. One is to lead the investment activity. It is also to develop the organization. There is a quite a comprehensive kind of framework around its working with, way the board, the ministry, the supervisory board. There is a council of ethics which keeps us out of an investments and so on, so that a lot of things involved in the role."
So every sovereign wealth fund has somebody running it, presumably, but virtually no other sovereign wealth fund, that I'm aware of, has somebody who is a superstar private sector investor, a member of the Giving Pledge, and somebody who's made a lot of money in the private sector. How did you come to do this job and leave your job running a very successful hedge fund?
"Yeah, that's interesting. So I have been running this company called Eco Capital for 15 years, and I thought, you know, what kind of the learning is plateauing and I need to move on in life and and do some other things. So I actually was starting to apply to go back to university. And then this job came up and I thought, wow. It combines asset management. It combines, you know, developing an organization and also to do something good for the country. So it was just perfect."
So where did Norway get all of this money? I mean, $1.7 trillion is a lot of money. Yeah. Where did you get all this money?
"Well, you know, we had been drilling on the Norwegian shelf for a long time, and and actually, this was in '69, in in the autumn. I get called day like today. And they, they were the last well, and this was Philips operating a platform called Ocean Viking. And then 2:00 in the morning, the platform chief was told to wake up. You know, the guy in charge, and is just like, still of the souls, why do you why do you wake up at two in the morning? It was like, you know what? We found someone. And there was the biggest find the world had ever seen offshore. And and then this was announced to the Norwegian population on the day before Christmas Eve '69. And so that's that's where it started."
So if Leif Ericson had not gone to North America and just stayed in Norway, it would have been better for Norway, right? Because he had discovered the oil there and not have gone to look for riches in North America.
"Could be. Could be."
So let's talk about the current investment environment. As we talk today, President Trump has been inaugurated in the United States. Are you worried about some of the America First policies that he has said he is going to pursue, or as a global investment manager, does it really make a difference to you?
"Well, it's a it's a complex question because we are we are a global investor, right? So if we then first disregard all types of policies which can impact society and just look at it from a purely financial point of view, I think in the short term it'd be be really good for our companies in America. They will less regulation, they'll be more, you know, more growth. So so that's positive. Now, of course, if there are a lot of tariffs, then European companies will be hit by it, so that be negative. And then, of course, also there is a big question whether whether the policies will be inflationary, which will be bad news in the in the longer term."
So let's talk for a moment about not just investment management. When was it actually set up that oil was discovered in, what? 1969?
"Yeah."
All right. So when was this organization set up?
"It was set up in '96. And the first deposit, there was like 2 billion Norwegian kroner. It's grown to 20,000 billion. So good growth."
So now the money that comes in from the oil and you invest it, there's that money. Go to every citizen in Norway every year? Or does it just stay in the central reserve for the use of the government?
"Well, I would say there are a couple of clever things that the politicians did at the time. They also established what is called the spending rule. So you can only spend 3% of the fund every year, and 3% of the fund goes into the budget. Now, the fund is now so large that it accounts for 25% or between 20 and 25% of the state budget. But I think it's very good to have that rule in place."
All right. So 25% of the government's budget comes from what you do every year. And my 700 colleagues, how many people actually work for you now?
"Well, so we've got roughly 700. We have we've got 100 in New York and around 40 in London. We got 40 in Singapore, and the rest would be in Oslo."
So the people pay an enormous amount of attention to your investment success. As everybody in Norway look everyday in the newspapers and see how you're doing, because that will affect Norway's government or not.
"Not only every day. We have it on our websites. We have a ticker which shows the real value of the fund at all times and is updated 13 times every second. So it's a lot of pressure. Every hour people are mentioning what you're doing."
Absolutely. So your job, though, is to oversee several hundred people making investments. And so they come to you if it's a really big investment decision and say, we're going to put $100 million in something, or is it you're just doing strategic things and you're not making the individual investment decisions?
"Well, it's since it's such a large fund, you need to be pretty index in there and what you name. And we have a very good investment mandate which we get from the Ministry of Finance, and then we follow that. And then we have then we have decentralized the various investment mandates within the firm."
So do people in Norway or the government criticize you saying you bought too much Apple stock or you didn't buy enough Apple stock or you don't get those kinds of criticisms?
"That's exactly right. So we always make mistakes and that's always in the papers because either either you have too much or you have too little, or, you know, when you when you own a bit of 9,000 companies across the world, there is always something going wrong somewhere and we always own it. And so we are always criticizing."
So today, if I was looking for some good investment ideas, let's suppose somebody is watching, say, what is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world? Thinking is a good idea. What would you say are a couple of good ideas?
"So I think if you are a long-term investor like we are, you want to be widely diversified across asset classes, across geographies. It's very, very tough to do this tactical asset allocation. I think that's nearly impossible. The best thing to do is always to do the opposite of everybody else. And what will that be today?"
"Well, if you were to do the opposite of everybody else, it would be to sell the US tech stocks, you know, buy China, sell private credit, you know, just buy stuff which is out of fashion, but it is very, very tough to do because if you are a contrarian and you are different from your benchmarks and so on, there will be periods where you underperform and everybody is going to question your sanity."
What about artificial intelligence? Is that a good area to invest in now?
"Has been fantastic and we have made a lot of money for the fund. You know, the biggest contributors of the last few years have, of course, been the big American AI companies. And I polled people in in August, just before Christmas, when I asked them how much more efficient are you now because of the new tools? And on average, people thought they were 15% more efficient. Really good."
So India is still a good stock to buy?
"Well, that I don't know. But for sure they make a good product."
When you look at your investment team that they come in every week and say, here are some ideas we have. And do you tell them yes, no, yes, no, or you just listen to what they recommend?
"Well, they would decide, I think, you know, in order to really judge how they're doing, they need to be totally accountable. And you can't interfere in the investment process. So I don't interfere in their investment process."
Well, as we talk today in the United States, at least, ESG and DTI seem to be in less favor than they were maybe two or three years ago. Is that the case in Norway?
"No."
Oh, so you don't really care what the U.S. is doing in this regard?
"Well, there is clearly a backlash against ESG, right? But the policies we have, they are anchored in in the parliament. And so we are not changing my mind. We think it's important with with climate reporting. We think diversity is good and so on."
In most Scandinavian countries, I think certainly in Norway, there's concern about climate change and there's a lot of interest in renewable energy. But you make your money from non-renewable energy. So is there an incongruity when you're making all this money from carbon? Is that carbonized kind of chemicals and fuels? But you really don't believe in that to some extent. How do you square that?
"Well, we we believe in it. And we do think that in particular, the gas that Norway produces, which is a very high proportion of the gas supply in Europe, is very, very important. And it continues to be a big part of the energy supply and an important for security for many, many years to come."
Let's talk about your own background. You weren't just working your way up in the government of Norway, just investment management. You were very successful, as I said earlier, in the private sector. Where were you born?
"I was born in a small town in in southern Norway, Christmas Island, which not many people have heard about."
And were your parents investment managers?
"No. No. My mother worked in the public sector with museums and art, and my father was an entrepreneur."
And where did you go to school?
"I started off in Norway. I studied Russian in the intelligence service. I went to Wharton, did business undergrad, and then I have done some degrees afterwards. I've done one in art history and one in social psychology."
Is it unusual for somebody in Norway to go to college at Wharton School in Philadelphia? It's a great school, but it's pretty, pretty. It's not so common.
"So when you went to Wharton and you said you're from Norway, did people in Wharton say, where is that or?"
"Yeah, of course."
And did they make fun of Norway? Did they say you were a Viking or something like that?
"Yeah, well, I was kind of."
Okay. So you graduate from Wharton and you get other degrees. You set up your own hedge. I mean, the cool thing is, you know, you come from Norway, which is like a very egalitarian society, and it's all about being very humble and so on. And then you come to Wharton, which is is like the opposite. It's like I remember, you know, I went to two clubs one day and it's like, Hey, what do you guys want to do? I just want to conquer the world and everybody abroad. I didn't say that, but somebody else said, and, you know, people applauded and it was just like a mindset, totally different.
So you didn't find a lot of humility at Wharton?
"Not so much."
So, okay. So you graduated then. Did you go into the private sector right away?
"Yeah, I went, then became an analyst with a stockbroking firm. I went there waiting for five years. Then I joined my largest client, which was a hedge fund and one of the earliest hedge funds in Europe."
Where was your based?
"London."
When did you say, I'm going to set up my own hedge fund?
"Well, so that was a bit afterwards because I had worked for these hedge funds for five years and made some money and I took a break. So I did a masters in art history and but realized I wasn't very good at it."
So how do you know you're not good at art history? I mean, you don't measure it the way you do investments.
"Well, you get feedback from the professor that you are. You're not the brightest thing."
Okay. So it's like, hey, I'm better looking at stocks than paintings, and so let's set up this firm instead. But you've built a big art collection, so you must know something about art.
"Yeah, but it's easier to buy art than write about art."
Okay. So you've set up your own hedge fund eventually.
"Yeah."
And how big was it before you stopped it?
"Just under $20 billion."
So it was one of the largest funds in Europe?
"No, I'm really proud of what we did there. We had many of the largest endowments and universities in the world investing with us. So it was a fantastic."
So you have a $20 billion dollar hedge fund and you're averaging rates of return, I assume, that are in double-digit kinds of areas. Right. And so when you got this opportunity to run for just investment management, did you say to your family, guess what, I'm not going to be making that much money anymore and we have to live more conservatively?
"Yeah. And what did they say?"
"They were happy with that. Yeah."
Wow. I've got enough money to buy food and shoes.
"Yeah, but usually hedge fund managers don't say they need to have enough money to buy the food. They want to buy airplanes and art and other things. And I think that's a misconstrued perception of what happened. As is. You know, in my mind, happiness is about learning. That's how you measure happiness is how much you have learned. You know, some people say, you know, you measure success by who's got the most money when they die. And I just think that's totally a failure. I mean, the person who's got the most money when he or she dies that they have, they have lost. They haven't, they haven't got it."
Oh, I didn't realize that. So. Well, are you. You did this. All right. So I that's something I got to learn, but okay, so. All right, so you set up your hedge fund, but when you left your hedge fund, did you have other people running it? Is it still around?
"Absolutely still. So it was a fantastic thing. It's been a great transition to the next generation, really. Reid and I, as they are doing better than ever and it's just a total win-win. So when I when I left for the for the position, in a way, I had to, to give away my ownership stake. So I gave it to a charitable foundation. And so the stake in the hedge fund is funding that charitable foundation."
So you did so well that you actually joined the Giving Pledge.
"Yeah."
Right. Which means you've got a net worth of at least a billion dollars or so. Are you the only person in Norway that signed the Giving Pledge?
"There's one more. One more."
Okay. So when you go to the Giving Pledge meetings, do you say, guess what, I'm giving away money now. But I'm I'm really running from running the Norway sovereign wealth fund, or you don't people don't talk to you about what you do now?
"No, no, they talk about that, too."
So do you ever go to reunions at Wharton and say, I wasn't I wasn't a board, I was on the board. You were on for some time now. And but they I guess they ask for contributions from time to time.
"Yeah."
And okay. But all I did, I did give them a building. But all the people in your class who are bragging about how great they were and they want to conquer the world. Did you ever show up and say, Look, you're the guy that actually did it and you didn't brag about?
"You don't say that. I never felt that I conquered the world."
I know for five years you've been running this fund and done pretty well. Obviously, now your term is up, you have a another five-year term you could get and apply.
"I applied last week."
You applied. Okay. You have to apply. You already have the job. Now it's it has to be you have to apply again.
"So I updated my CV and applied. Wow. Okay."
Did anybody else apply or?
"Yeah, I think so. I mean, I don't know. It's I don't know. I mean, I'm when it comes to this, I'm very, very humble. I if they find anybody else who's better at doing that job, he or she should get the job, right? It's a very important position in the country. And so I have applied. I hope I will get an extension."
So if not, I need to do something else. So you're willing to do another five years?
"Yeah."
And your compensation as the person running it is modest, I assume, compared to what you used to make.
"Yeah, it's a well-paid job, but it's, it's of course it's a public sector job. And"
He thought about going into politics and running for government positions, Prime Minister or something like that.
"No, you don't want to go into that."
Not no interest in that. Oh, and what about any thing after you're finished that suppose you do another five years.
"Yeah."
And for ten years of this you probably would say that's enough.
"Well, I'm going to spend the rest of my life hopefully doing good things. You know, I'd love to go back to university at some stage for a degree, learn some more things. Art, history."
But you're not that good at that.
"So you would do something else. You think, okay, but you have a big art collection still. And what area do you collect art?"
"We have the biggest collection of Nordic modernist art and we've given that museum which opened last year. New York Times recently said it was one of the 50 most important places to go in 2025. So you all have to go, of course."
So if somebody is watching this and they've never been to Norway, what would you say about what is great about Norway that would deserve their visiting? What is Norway? Why should you see a Norway?
"Well, the nature. The nature is unrivaled. I mean, it's just like Switzerland with a lot of sea around it. Right. And it is absolutely beautiful. You're really close to to the fjord. You are close to the mountains. It's good for skiing, it's good for hiking. It's perfect. And not too many people. So it's not so crowded."
Or how many total people are there?
"5 million."
5 million? Yeah. So when Alfred Nobel was awarding his developing his Nobel Prizes, he had the prizes being given by people in Sweden, the Swedish Academy. But he didn't think the Swedes were peaceful, loving people. So he said the Peace Prize is given for by people in Norway.
"Yeah."
So in Norway is very peaceful.
"Yes."
And you have no interest in getting involved in international diplomatic things or something like that?
"No."
And your children, are they interested in investing?
"No, thankfully. I mean, thank God for that, because I think in my mind you just don't want to follow your parents. You want to you want to create your own destiny. You want to you don't want to be measured against the success of your parents. You know, I don't really believe in inheritance. I think to inherit a lot of money is not a good thing. If you are successful is just because you inherit a lot of money and if you fail, you are a total failure because you started with a lot of money and you didn't manage to do anything. So I just think it's so, you know, let them do what they want."
So today, are you worried about your borders because of what's going on in Russia and Ukraine? Is that something you worry about in terms of the impact of Russia, Ukraine, on your investment appetite for things like that?
"I'm not worried about Russia invading Norway anytime soon. We are a member of NATO. We do border to Russia. But now, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, we feel stronger than before."
Learn, learn, learn. You have to believe in what you do. You have to be able to be contrarian. But when things change, you have to change your mind. And that's the rarest combination in investment management.
So today, what would you say your biggest investment concerns are? You're running a $1.7 trillion fund. For the average person to not manage that much money, what should they be worrying about? And what are you worrying about?
"Well, I think, you know, I think you've got two things. One, you have the known unknowns, right? So and they're at the top of my list would be two things. One is inflation, because I think there is an argument in a tightly tight labor market when you potentially decline the supply or you reduce the supply of of of labor in the US, you put on tariffs. These things can be inflationary and there could be a moment where, given the high level of government debt, that the investors suddenly decide, you know what, we want a much higher coupon to lend to, you know, to governments. And so you could see a step up in in interest rates, which could be negative for financial markets. Then, of course, all the all the AI related stocks. The epicenter here is Taiwan. So you need to watch that. The thing that really scares us when it happens is the unexpected, you know, whether it be a meltdown of nuclear reactors in Japan or a Covid or financial crisis is the stuff you cannot model which really derails markets. And they come about every so often and there will be another one coming up."
So let's suppose I'm one of the people interviewing you for your re our application to have this job for next five years. What would you say is the reason that you deserve the job? You've done pretty well or you like the job or people are happy or your rate of return has been very good. What would you say is the reason you should get this job?
"And the organization has done well is a real teamwork. We built a really great team. You know, we are we have done a lot of great things. We are now the most transparent fund in the world. We've done a lot of things like that, right? And there's always a lower risk to take the incumbent than, than changing. But, but as I said, you know, these are just pros and cons and there are a lot of people out there who are really, really excellent."
All right. So what do you do for outside activities? Are you a skier or you're some other kind of outsource?
"Well, I suppose I spend a lot of time in nature. I walk in a forest, I, I do cross-country skiing. I pick mushrooms in the autumn."
You do what? Mushrooms. Not the magic. What's the notion of running? What do you. What do you pick them or you grow them or what?
"Oh, you walk around in the forest and you pick wild mushrooms and you go home and you cook them and you make, you know, like chanterelle spaghetti. Wow. That's an unusual have. Wow. Okay."
So generally you strike me as a very happy person and I generally don't find that many happy people in the investment world. They're always worried about something else. But you're pretty happy. So how did you get to be so happy?
"Well, first of all, you have to figure out what is it that makes you happy, right? And I do think people mistake. That's quite often, you know, you just try to make more money. I do buy more things. That's not where true happiness comes from. It comes from spending time with friends and family and and learning where in terms of learning, you know, I also as you know, I do a podcast and I learn a lot through that podcast."
If you're giving advice to somebody that's watching this about how to be a good investment manager, what is the single most important piece of investment advice you could give somebody?
"Learn, learn, learn. And the combination of being stubborn and agile, you know, you have to stick with your guns. You have to believe in what you do. You have to be able to be contrarian. But when things change, you have to change your mind. And that's the rarest combination in investment management."
So you think humility is better than arrogance and a good investor?
"Well, you need to be confidently confident. Humility is the magic."
Have you ever met Warren Buffett?
"No, really?"
And no interest in meeting him.
"He's in cordial to vice, but he hasn't called you for ideas or anything like that?"
"No, no, no. He. I haven't met him. Well, like. Well, I briefly. I met him briefly. Okay."
So is there one person that is a role model for you? If it's not Warren Buffett, maybe it is, even though you haven't met him. Is there anybody you would say is somebody that you have as a role model in the investment area?
"Well, I think it's difficult to not mention Bill Gates as a role model if you are a philanthropist because you make a lot of money and then you are very organized and structured in the way you give it away. I think that's really impressive. You."