Transcription
These are running backs we think are going to absolutely smash this year. And part of the reason for that is because they're playing in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Six of the seven guys we have on this list are in a top 10 projected offense for this year. And that's one of the key things to drafting running backs and players in fantasy football. Making sure you're picking the the players that are going to help you win your fantasy league this year.
So without further ado, we need to have the Derrick Henry talk again because every year, you have to do it every year. So honestly, the reason we need to do this is because Mason has faded uh Derrick Henry for five years now, six years. It's legitimately I think it's been five years. I think it has been five straight years Mason has said he hit the age cliff. Maybe this would be the fifth, right? I think it would be the fifth before we ever got into making content. And I think he's doing it again this year as far as I know. So, we are going to have to come out with some sort of rebuttal against that. And I think the rebuttal against this is Derrick Henry will be done producing when he decides he doesn't want to produce anymore. And when he decides he doesn't want to play football anymore and as long as he's playing in the NFL, this dude is going to be productive.
Again, like Vegas projection-wise this year, this dude is still projected by Vegas to to score a ton of touchdowns this year, a ton of fantasy points. He's projected by Vegas to be the lead rusher. Vers. This is insane. Also, this is crazy. The Ravens have the fourth highest projected Vegas offense. And the Ravens are like the the fourth highest Super Bowl favorite for this year. Did you realize that? No, I did not. Isn't that insane? I would have never guessed they were that high with a first year head coach. As much as I made fun of their judgments or higher, that's it's pretty crazy. But yeah, like in terms of rushing yards, the overunder for Derrick Henry's rushing yards right now is,274 rushing yards. That is higher than Taylor, Cook, Gibbs, Bejian, Barkley, Genty, Achan, and rushing touchdowns. Also, first, he's he is projected to be the most productive running back in fantasy football according to Vegas lines. Now, he gets the most volume. Obviously, it's not that easy, right? Because there's no receiving volume there. And so the guys like Bejian, CMC are going to pass him pretty easily and he'll end up somewhere in the middle.
But regardless, like every year we're drafting Derrick Henry. It seems like we're having this conversation like is Derrick Henry going to hit this year? Is he going to be washed? And a lot of people last year are looking at Derrick Henry's game log and they're saying okay and and admittedly the game log's ugly. He had a 45point game, a 29point game, and then he did have a 14, 19, 13, 20, 22, 17, and 22. I mean, post bye-week it was pretty sexy. Post by week was not bad, but there were games last year of 2, 10, 7, 9, 11, 11, 10. That was when I owned him. That was when Nathan owned him in the flock week. And again, like Nathan doesn't draft Eric Kenny this year. He's a huge buy, first of all. But second of all, that offense was a mess last year. Part of the reason they made a coaching change is because everything was just a mess last year. This is going to be very interesting to see how this offense develops this year. But either way you frame it, Derrick Henry is going to be a focal point, if not the focal point of this offense. And so with Derrick Henry again, it's just people, okay, well, the age cliff, the age cliff, the age cliff. Well, do I think he's going to score 20 points a game like he did his first year with Baltimore? No. But is he still going to score 16 points a game? Probably like he did last year. Probably he will. And again, on a from a rushing standpoint, he can do that. He can average 16 and a half points a game and still have a total of 21 targets and 150 yards receiving on the entire season. He can still average 16 and a half points a game just on the ground. And again, what you saw last year when that Ravens offense actually got going is that Derrick Henry was pretty productive again on a points per game standpoint, right? A and even just looking at this like game log wise, uh it looks like he started to kind of take off in week 11. So, let's just kind of let's just plug this into the comparison tool here.
When you're looking at the splits here from Derrick Henry, week 1 through 8 versus weeks 9 through 18. 13.2 points per game weeks 1 through eight, right? That was 19th among running backs, ninth in rushing attempts, ninth in rushing yards, 26th in yards per carry, right? Sixth in rushing attempts inside the five. Again, targets is nothing, right? But also touchdowns. Ninth in touchdowns. So 086 point per game. Not terrible. That didn't go up a whole lot, but the fantasy production did when you're looking at weeks nine through 18, right? He goes to 18.7 points per game. Derrick Henry, literally every season he's ever played in the NFL, he's the opposite of every running back that's ever existed because he gets better as the season goes on. It's incredible. It's like he takes more hits and it like it fuels him. It it like powers him up. Like what are we actually doing here? Dude's a psycho. Again, weeks 9 through 18. Last year he averaged 18.7 points per game. Now I understand. What was the week he scored 45? Let's take it out. Let's let's get this right. Green Bay in week 17. All right. I'm going to take weeks seven. Week 17 out. So this is weeks nine through 18 with the exception of week 17. And that 18.7 goes to 16.1. He's still three points a game better than he was the first eight weeks of the season when the Ravens were absolutely struggling. Yeah. And again, he was the running back 10. I'm That's taking out his best game, which again, I don't know why people insist on doing that, but people do say, "Oh, if you take out his best game." Well, yeah. You do that for any player and the points per game is going to drop, right? Yeah. Duh. The points they score the most points. You take those away, they score less points. Thank you. At the same time, even without that game, 92 rushing yards a game. That went up 20 from the first eight weeks. And that was only on two more rushing attempts per game because his efficiency went up to 5.59 yards per carry. He was third in terms of rushing attempts inside the five. Derrick Henry was Dererick Henry last year from weeks nine through 16 and then again in week 18. I mean the dude was incredible. And so look, everybody wants to have this discussion every year. Oh well Derrick Henry, he's washed. It's over. This is the age cliff blah blah blah. No, probably not. You can draft Derrick Henry. Where are you drafting him this year? Second round. I think I see him going usually paired with like either one of the top wide receivers or top running backs. And his ADP right now is about 20. Uh 25 on sleepers the lowest. 18 is the highest on underdog and CBS leagues right now. Take him in the second round. Just take the dude. Right. Again, he's on one of the top projected offenses. He was extremely good last year when the Ravens were actually somewhat good at football. The Ravens project to be even better this year. And Dererick Henry is Dererick Henry, right? Fading him is just the worst idea of all time every single year. The year that Derrick Henry finally doesn't hit, I'm gonna miss on it because I'm never gonna fade Derrick Henry my entire life. This year, I think he's gonna smash. the offense projects to be good. I'm fine drafting Derrick Henry in the second round. He's a great pick there.
I like Kyron Williams a lot this season as well. Last year he was going two three turn sometimes at the very end of the second round. And now he's going more in like the mid to late third depending on what platform you're playing on, but ADP averages out to be about 32. Um, which again is going to be mid to late third round, right? So with Kairen, I I do think that he's kind of in an interesting little range of running backs where you've got some questionable situations, which admittedly his is somewhat questionable because you've got such an explosive passing offense with Puka and Dev Dvonte Adams producing. People are worried about Blake Corm. You have a terrible offense like Bree Hall is in in New York. You've got Josh Jacobs who's got some legal issues right now. And then Javvante and another very high passing volume offense. I I I think he's very comparable to Kron Williams and what his produ production output is probably going to be this season. But with Kron Williams, I I think it's very straightforward and you're going to see this as a trend with all the running backs that we have in this video. Kron Williams is in one of the top two project best offenses in the NFL this year. If not, again, probably going to be the best offense this season as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy. And one of the best things that you can do every single year in fantasy football if you just want to not suck and not lose is to draft solid players, solid to good players in great elite level, high production output offenses. Because it doesn't really matter what Kyum Williams ends up doing from like a volume perspective, whether it's like 70% of the snaps or 90% of the snaps. The reality is the Rams are going to be in the red zone in touchdown situations so often that he's just gonna find himself in touchdown scenarios all the time. We've seen it for the last three years, right? This offense has been as good as it's ever been in the last three years. And Kyron Williams the last three years has put up a total of 15 total touchdowns, 16 total touchdowns, and 13 total touchdowns from 2023 to 2025, respectively. He's finished as a running back 77 and n in total points. And that's factoring in the games that he missed in 2023 if you're not into uh not factoring in the games that he missed. The best abilities availability, right? the last two years he has only missed one game and that was from I believe sitting out the last game in 2024 which is correct when they had clinched the playoffs. So with Kiran you know that the last two years he's been consistently reliable on a on a per game basis the amount of attempts that he averaged last year was very respectable. He usually gets like 15 carries per game which is top 10 among running backs in the NFL. He actually is very respectable in the receiving game as well. He averaged uh three targets per game, uh 50 total targets across the entire year, which was 12th among running backs. He was seventh in red zone touches, and this is the kicker right here, 13 goal line touches. I know a lot of people are worried about Blake Corm heading in heading into this season. Look, Vegas is a great indicator about the floor and ultimately the the general range of production output that you're going to see from a lot of running backs here. And Blake Cororm's production this season is not expected to be anything special. I know a lot of people in fantasy are hoping slash expecting it's going to be great. It's not going to be any better than it was last year. It's about the same when you're looking at his yardage projection from Vegas. It's going to be anywhere from like 650 to 750 yards. And that's, you know, respectable for a backup running back who's a change of pace back who can end up averaging, you know, seven points a game at the end of the day. But really Blake Corm is the one that is the most touchdown dependent. he has to have a touchdown to be a relevant flex option. Whereas Kron Williams, he's not going to not get 15 carries a game because he has been for the last three years. He's been playing alongside Blake Corm for the last two, which is when he's been the most available and the most consistently productive. So big fan of Kiran this year, but there there has over time people have factored in the fact that he's going to probably regress um because of like the touchdown production in the early parts of his career um in 2023 being the main reason that he had such a crazy high ceiling. Now he's settled more into into the 15 to 17 point per game range at two three-term prices. I understand why that would have been like semi- disappointing last year, but it's not going any lower than that this year in what is expected to be one of the best offenses in the NFL. And again, at mid to late third round prices, that's just one of the best, in my opinion, bust proof running back selections that you can make in that range.
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I want to talk about Saquon Barkley. Saquon was a guy that really did take a hit last year and I think part of the reason he took a hit was because as every one of you has correctly pointed out that offensive that offensive play calling last year was probably the worst in the NFL. It was horrendous. It was so incredibly bad. The scheme there, the play calling there was so bad. This year they project as a top 12 offense, but right there at 12, right? Uh they do project to be a little bit better than they projected to be last year, which is good. It's going to look different though, though. And I think it's going to be look different in a good way for uh for Saquon Barkley. First of all, uh the Shawn Manion stuff. I I think I think that Shawn Manion, if I'm not mistaken, actually runs more under center than he than Jaylen Herz is used to running out of the shotgun, right? And so that lines up to be a fairly good thing for Saquon Barkley in my opinion when you kind of look at what Saquon is good at. He's projected right now Vegas wise at 1100 yards, eight and a half rushing touchdowns. Uh in 274 receiving yards as well, Saquon is a guy that's going to be heavily involved in the passing game in Philadelphia as well as the rushing game. But again, Saquon last year, it was very disappointing. And part of the reason for this was because the offensive play calling did not do him any favors. And he saw across the board a lot of places where he really just dipped year-over-year. I mean, for example, you're looking at his yards per attempt. It was down 1.7 yards from 5.8 to 4.1 last year, right? So, you saw that really decrease. His touchdowns dropped tremendously last year. He went from 13 to seven touchdowns, which again, touchdown aggression is not an abnormal thing. His yardage, of course, dropped 900 yards almost. Like, that's a huge drop. top. And part of the reason for that was because his carries per game dropped about four. He got 21 carries per game his first year with Philly. It dropped about 17 and a half. The one thing about this that I need to point out is of course the Philly offensive line. Like the offensive line in Philadelphia is still very good. When you're looking at most offensive line rankings, here's a table uh preseason's got a bunch of guys in here, bunch of sharp football analysts, um and then a bunch of different publications as well. Rank all the offensive line, average them out. The Eagles have the second best offensive line still. the offensive line in Philadelphia, especially for run blocking, still elite, still maybe the best in the NFL. What does that tell you? It tells you if Saquon Barkley actually gets number one, the usage from a volume perspective that he should and number two a scheme that is going to help him produce and not only hinder him and, you know, decrease his efficiency. I mean, you I'm not saying he's going to do what he did two years ago. I'm not saying he's going to average 22 a game, but can Saquon Barkley get up to averaging 16 to 18 points a game again this year? Absolutely he can. Right now, his ADP, again, it depends on the platform. Like underdog for example, he's going like at the right there at the the one two turn. He's going at 13 is his ADP technically. Uh in some other platforms you get him a little bit lower than that. Of course, like Sleeper and ESPN, both two popular draft platforms. You're getting him like midsec. That's right where you're drafting those stud wide receivers. JSN, Jamar Chase, Puka Aua this year. I love that pairing. I like pairing him with CMC to be honest with you. Right at the one-two turn, I'm honestly okay with it. in the midsecond. I'm floored to get Saquon Barkley there. I think Saquon is absolutely due for a bounceback year. And there are tons of people saying, "Okay, well, this guy averaged 14 and a half points a game this year." Like, why are we still drafting him in the second round? Look at his game log, for example. I I just think that contextually, I think Saquon Barkley is the guy that benefits the most from the offensive scheme change there in Philadelphia. I think Shawn Manning is going to be good for Saquon Barkley and I think this year he's going to be able to show back out and increase again those points back up to 16 to 18 points a game which we've seen that happen multiple times from a guy that's 28 years old he's going to be 29 he's not or sorry really it's is technically going to be 29y old season he's 29 and a half right now you saw something similar to this though with Jamal Charles in 2014 right go from 16 points a game and his 29-y old season had 20 points a game because the offensive system got so much better that year right so it's not like it doesn't happen at this point in people's career and I think this is a year or Saquon's going to bounce back. So again, mid-second, late second smash. I will smash draft Saquon Barkley. I like him there. And again, I think he's going to have I think he's going to be the biggest beneficiary of the new offensive scheme in Philadelphia. I think it's going to look a lot better for everybody, but especially Saquon.
I think it's going to look really really solid for Javante Williams again in an offense that hasn't changed whatsoever in Dallas. and his reward for finishing as a top 12 running back last season and even better in points per game. He was the uh running back 11 in points per game at 15.2. His reward for that is going at the 34 turn one. I think that he could very easily quite comfortably go at least a half round higher. Uh but he's settled to this range and again one of the best most explosive offenses in the NFL. I don't think CD Lamb and George Pickins necessarily hurt him. I think that's why Javvante was so productive last season. And they did nothing in the back field to add any competition for Javvante. All they did was extend him this off seasonason. They paid this guy after he showed more explosiveness and more ability to be versatile as a nice running and receiving option than we've really ever seen post ACL tear. And again, I understand the concern with Javvante Williams is that he was just more disappointing towards the end of the season compared to the beginning. He did sputter out a little bit. When you look at the splits from weeks one to nine versus weeks 11 to 14, you had a five point per game dip from 17.3 points per game to 12.4. Javvante was not near as big of a differencemaker as he was at the beginning of the season. But again, I don't think that should be really too much of a knock against him because you look at two of those games in week 16 and 17, they were out of the playoff picture. Javvante was banged up. They wanted to get other guys some usage and opportunity there. Javvante again they were a little uncertain about whether they're going to res resign him heading into the offseason anyways they wanted to see what they had in that running back room and Javvante was banged up towards the end of the season and I think that happened in week 15 against Minnesota so his snap share went down significantly in those last three games weeks 15 to 17 and that's why you saw a good amount of production dip and even despite that he still had a couple touchdowns there but again you also do see the natural production dip in with the touchdowns you had a touchdown per game that he was averaging from weeks one to nine versus half a touchdown down per game in weeks 11 to 18. I think just by the nature of the usage that he gets there offensively and how often they get in the red zone and how often they score, you're probably going to see something in the middle there with Javvante where you're not going to see a full touchdown per game. You're not going to see a half touchdown per game. Probably somewhere around like threequarters of a touchdown per game, which I think is a nice little middle ground to get at. And I think it's totally reasonable and totally okay from a production perspective outlook for him because he's the again the red zone touches that he was getting 62 total red zone touches 15 at the goal line. He was fifth among running backs in red zone opportunities last season. Most people would kill for that red zone usage and opportunity anywhere beyond the top two rounds of fantasy drafts this season given how many running backs are going in the top two rounds relative than what what we relative to what we've been used to seeing over the last like 3 to four years. So, with Javvante and the price point that you're getting him at, some people getting him as late as the early fourth round, I am totally okay with factoring in the risk that Javvante's floor might be a little bit lower when he doesn't score touchdowns when he's just consistently getting the opportunity in an offense that has made absolutely zero changes this off season. They're just running it back.
We've already talked about DeAndre Swift a lot on this channel and people are fairly conservative with DeAndre Swift right now because I think of Kyle Manungai which again we've proved that when DeAndre Swift and Kungai both had a significant role in this offense. They were both producing and in fact DeAndre Swift was producing more than common guy was sure does it cap DeAndre Swift's ceiling that common guy is getting a significant amount of carries in that offense? Sure it does. But the Bears offense is again projected to be a very good offense this year. And buying the lead running back and DeAndre Swift is the lead running back. People say, "Well, my guy is going to take his job." I really don't think so. I really don't think that's going to happen. Buying the lead running back on a Ben Johnson offense, a Bears offense that is projected to be a top 10 offense in the NFL right now. I'm pretty high on that. DeAndre Swift was able to get his production last year again through a multitude of ways. He obviously got receiving work in that offense last year and an offense I think is going to be even better in this next year with Ben Johnson. Uh but when you're looking last year at his advanced statistics, like he had 48 targets uh for 299 yards and one receiving touchdown. So it's honestly nothing crazy there from a receiving standpoint. Um he had 1,000 yards rushing. He had nine rushing touchdowns. He had 14 carries inside the five, right? So you compare that to somebody like Kyle Manungai. Kyle Manungai over the course of the entire year last year um had nine carries inside the five. So obviously they split them to some extent, but DeAndre Swift got the majority of them. Kungai did have five rushing touchdowns. So he will vult. He himself had 783 receiving yards. Uh 30 targets and 164. This isn't really like a Dobbins Harvey split where one of them is a receiving back and one of them's the like clear ground back or red zone guy or something like that. They're really both kind of doing a little bit of everything. And DeAndre Swift just seems to be the more productive of the two of them. And again, the the the most appealing thing about DeAndre Swift this year outside of the offensive situation is the price. You're getting him in the fifth round. All of the other running backs that are going in that range are hideous to me. Bucky Irving has plenty of questions. Quinn Sean Judkins, yuck. It's Why would you buy Quinn Sean Judkins in an offense that is projected to be one of the worst in the NFL where he has no receiving upside and you can get DeAndre Swift in in an offense going to score a lot of touchdowns. David Montgomery is okay. Trayvon Henderson has a ton of question marks. He could be really good. Beel Tutin has a ton of question marks. Who knows? He could be good. Either way you look at it though, I think DeAndre Swift, you like taking him in the fifth round. I like taking him in the fifth round this year because again, I know I'm going to buy into an offense that's going to be scoring a lot of touchdowns, be in the red zone a lot this year. And and that's the primary reason we like DeAndre Swift as much as we do. Now, in terms of what the what the split will be between him and Monunga, I have doubt that Manunga is going to get carries there. But again, when they were both on the field last year, DeAndre Swift outscored Kalman. Even through the last half of the season, DeAndre Swift was outscoring Kan Nongai because DeAndre Swift is and I think was and is the lead back in Chicago. And Kyle Monungai, while he's getting a fair amount of the snaps, and I think he's good, you don't feel as good about starting Kungai on a week-to-eek basis. And to me, you're not buying DeAndre Swift for the upside because yes, Kyongi caps his ceiling. And the upside is limited there. It's not the upside for me. It is the safety, it's the security, and it's the high floor and low risk that you're getting from DeAndre Swifts. again, a guy who over the course of his entire career in the NFL has averaged 12 and a half or more points per game every single year in the last six years. Every single year, he's never been lower than the running back, too. So, you know, you're getting that and that's pretty valuable by by just not missing again, not missing on your fifth round pick. We've already talked about this. That's huge for DeAndre Swift. And so, I like Swifty. And again, he's the safe pick. He's a safe running back pick for me at a a position that is really going at a premium these days in fantasy football. And you can get one in the fifth round that you feel good about that's on a high-scoring offense. So, if you're going to take a fifth or sixth round pick, or specifically a fifth round pick, take a guy that you think is going to be a safe pick that is probably not going to miss. I think Swift, he may not be the ceiling pick, but he's the floor pick. That's why I like taking him in the fifth round.
Josh Jacobs is another one of the four running backs that's usually going in the third round this season. And if I'm being totally honest, he's my least favorite of the three that I've talked about so far going in this range. I like Kairen and Javvante more just because they're in more reliable, more consistent, high production output offenses. Um, at least projected that this season. and Jacobs is more of like in a steady offense where Matt Laflur is, you know, as a play caller, he's a good play caller, but you just kind of know what he's going to give you every single year. And that's some really good weeks, some really, really low output weeks, but usually even in the low output weeks, it's usually the running backs like Josh Jacobs who ends up being productive there. And that's why I like him this season. He's just so consistent when it comes to touchdown output. And I know a lot of the reason that he's going cheaper this year compared to where he usually goes um in a situation like this, which is one of the better ones that we've seen in his career, it's because of how poor he finished last year. In weeks 11 to 18, he was down to 10.1 points per game compared to the 19.6 that he had at the beginning of the season from weeks 1 to 10. His production volume or his touchdown volume went from like 1.2 touchdowns per game to 0.5 touchdowns per game. And that was really rough. His efficiency on the ground actually got better in the latter half of the season. So, that was nice to see. But his rushing attempts went down as well. Part of that is because again, Josh Jacobs was injured towards the end of last year. That's why he was so disappointing and really hurt a lot of people in their fantasy leagues in the playoffs. His snap share went down significantly really in that New York Giants game in week 11. It just was downhill from there. He missed that game against Minnesota. And week 12 came back, he did not look the same. And again, his carries and his efficiency were were fine. But for whatever reason, he was just getting less opportunities in the red zone than what we were used to seeing from him. And that's something that I do think is going to uh carry on this year from a positive perspective. I do think it's going to carry on uh in what you saw in weeks one through nine. You're going to see that again this season. Maybe he's not going to average more than a touchdown per game, but similar to Javvante Williams, it's like you don't have to expect that amount of insane touchdown volume from a guy like Jacobs for him to still be productive and still pay off at ADP where his current price is going. He is one of the cheapest of the guys going here at the running back position in the third round. You can get him at the 34 turn. And I do think it's a very, very reasonable selection to get him here at this price. He's 28 years old. I know he's kind of aging out, but if I've learned anything from these running backs over the last couple of years, I I would I would rather take a shot on Josh Jacobs this season and it pay off and him get the touchdown volume that we've seen in Green Bay for the last two years than not take a shot on him and regret it when he's scoring against 16 touchdowns like he did in 2024 and 14 touchdowns like he did last season. That points per game dip was actually not near as dramatic as people made it out to be. 17.2 to 15.8 points per game. and his yards per carry like one of the biggest indicators of I I guess uh regression for running backs that we've seen historically is that their efficiency goes down or is average to below average at this age. Josh Jacobs efficiency as a running back has never been good. It's always been average to below average. And that's something that we've seen the last couple of years in Green Bay. It's like yeah, you kind of know what you're going to get from him on the ground and that's around a thousand rushing yards. And it's not going to be super p pretty from a rushing yard perspective. But what we do know every single year in a Matt Laflur offense is once they get into the red zone, they love giving the ball to their running backs. And they'll, you know, take a shot with Christian Watson here and there. They'll take a shot with Tucker Craft, but they really don't have the personnel to consistently rely on the passing game, let alone Jordan Love being a consistent passer, uh, to to want to just sling the ball like crazy once they get inside the 20s. Josh Jacobs is the one that they're going to want to go feed the ball to like they have the last couple of years because that's where they found a ton of success and I think that's going to continue this season. And as far as the uh legal stuff is concerned, the suspension isn't something that he's going to have to suffer from this year. It usually if it ever comes is going to be the following year. Alvin Kamar, case in point, right? And that's something that again when you're worried about like missed time, it's going to be from injury, not a suspension this year.
The last guy I want to talk about here is Chase Brown. Chase Brown is playing on what is projected to be a top five offense in the NFL according to the Vegas lines and it is the most concentrated offense in the NFL. Everything in that offense runs through T. Higgins, Jamar Chase, and Chase Brown. And the thing about Chase Brown also is when you're looking at what he's been able to do the last two years, this is a guy that's getting almost 70% of the snaps in that offense. And what's really ticked up from a production perspective the last couple years is his receiving usage. Right. Last year, I mean, every single year he's played really, but especially starting last year. Last year he had five receiving touchdowns in this offense, right? He had, I think, 80 targets in this offense as well. You've seen that go up and not not only does that raise his floor, but that dramatically increases his ceiling as well. And that's a really good thing for fantasy managers as well. 88 targets, 69 receptions in offense last year. And so again, he did have a thousand yards on the ground, but that's not where the major this is, it's a perfect distribution of fantasy points when you're talking about the original source because it's not all coming from yards. It's not all coming from touchdowns. It's not all coming from receiving either. It's a perfect blend of all three of those things in an offense that gets in the red zone a ton, especially with Joe Burrow. Chase Brown splits with and without Joe Burrow. He's much better with Burrow obviously, right? But gets in the red zone a ton, passes the ball a lot, has a sucky defense, so is playing from behind a lot. And Chase Brown benefits from that as much as anybody in that offense. And so I'm not looking at Chase Brown as somebody that's like, oh well, you know what he did the last couple years, he may not do it again. Like he is playing on one of the best offenses to buy in. He is like the guy in that offense. His split of that backfield is less of a split than almost any other guy that's being drafted close to him because there's a lot of second round running backs this year, right? You can get any of these guys like Genty Cook Hampton are all going at the turn. Uh Chase Brown, Devon Achan, Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, Dererick Henry, Jeremiah Love, all going in the second round. Chase Brown's playing the best offense of any of them from a fantasy output perspective and from a concentration perspective by far. He is the guy to own. I think he's super high floor this year. I think if you pick him in the second round, so long as nothing catastrophic happens injury-wise, which again, you can't predict anyways, Chase Brown's going to be a guy that has less questions than Omar Hampton, has a lot less questions than Devon Chan because the offense is way better. It's really hard for me, and I don't know how I have these guys ranked, and I might just have to switch this because I'm literally talking myself into this right now. It's really hard for me to look at Chase Brown next to Devon Achan and say, "Well, I'd rather have Achan, even though Achan's in the worst offense in the NFL and Chase Brown's in literally the best. And I get that Han scores more fantasy points. Totally understand that. But I also don't think we've seen like what if Chase Brown has a 13 touchdown season this year. He's going to score 19 points a game. I'm I'm fairly confident that happens if he scores 13 touchdowns this year. So you're not only buying it like a you're obviously you're buying at a pretty high price, but you're not only paying for the high floor. I think you're paying for a high ceiling that we haven't necessarily even seen realized for for for Chase Brown yet. And as the receiving usage has ticked up and the touchdown reliance has never really increased, it only sets him up to where if what if Joe Burrow stays healthy for a full season this year? The splits with Joe Burrow last year, he was averaging like 18 19 points a game when Burrow was healthy last year. So in in theory, if Joe Burrow is healthy and Chase Brown is healthy this year, we haven't even seen Chase Brown ceiling yet. But even when Joe Burrow is not healthy and Joe Burrow is healthy for half the season or whatever, like last year, Chase Brown still is what a low-end running back one. That's the kind of guy I want to draft in in the second round of fantasy drafts this year.
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