Transcription
Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and it's finally Friday. We are about to wrap up what's quite frankly been an uneventful and boring week. I would say for me at least. I've been really struggling for content this week and I suppose mostly because price just isn't doing anything and there's not really been much development. I think it's actually been kind of a weird one because the government's been shut down and we haven't had any macro data. So, all I've really been able to do is point at stuff and say, "I smell a rat." And I've kind of completely run out of things to say.
I guess it finally happened after what has been, I don't know, 12 or 1300 back-to-back videos on this channel. There is still plenty of things to point at and kind of pretend like they're important. At least from my perspective, right? You can buy into these narratives or anyone can buy into these narratives if it makes them feel good. But, I mean, we got Pelosi announcing her retirement. Maybe that's something, maybe it isn't. Buffett is saying he's no longer going to write the Berkshire annual letters. Again, maybe that's something, maybe it isn't.
Playing advocate here, the Pelosi thing, she is 85, right? So, retiring at 85. I think I said this last time I covered Pelosi on the channel. You know, I doubt I'm going to be still working at 85 to be frank. And then Buffett, I don't know how old he is. He's 95. Okay. So, I mean, he's well within his right to start winding down a bit.
We did have Michael Bur, the guy from The Big Short, announce he's going to close his fund after betting something like a billion dollars. That's notional value though, not spot, isn't it? Against PLTR a little bit early. Maybe he should learn the hyperwave theory and then I think he would figure out when the correct time to bet against it was. Or maybe he knows something. Who knows, right? But either way, he's going to close his fund and walk away from the markets. Again, maybe he can see something, right? Maybe these people all know something. We're at the end of the road here. Or maybe they're just getting old and bored of this stuff, right?
At the same time, of course, as I keep talking about, there's going to be no jobs data, okay? Right when we probably needed it the most to confirm we are indeed heading into a recession, but whatever. Okay? If that means we can run it hot a little while longer, I'm fine with that. And the same with the CPI data, right? We're not going to get any more inflation data, right? As we're about to see inflation fall off a cliff. But, you know, again, I don't really care. All right? Let them do what they're going to do. Eventually, the chickens will come home to roost. And again, if we want to run it hot for a while longer, I'm totally down for that.
Bitcoin lost 100K, so I guess a lot of people are out here trying to call the end of the world. And maybe they're right, okay, but maybe they're not. We'll cover Bitcoin a little bit in a moment. We've seen job cuts absolutely everywhere. Again, kind of fits with the expectation on this channel. No real changes to that either. And apparently there's only a 30% chance of recession next year. I think, as you know, I already think we're in a recession. And the NBER, who is officially in charge of dating the recessions, usually does so 12 months after the fact, there or thereabouts. So, by the time they declare it, they're probably going to declare it about a year from now. And they'll probably go back and paint a bar somewhere around Q3 of this year. I would think that that's what I think is going to happen.
As always, I don't really care. All right, up, down, or in circles. We're just going to keep doing what we always do, which is trading cycles and trying our best to stay on the right side. But, as you can tell, I've kind of exhausted everything I have to say. So, I know some people are going to want their hand-holding at this weekly cycle low for Bitcoin because they wanted their hands holding every other weekly cycle low, right? There's always people that come out and are extremely loud in here, okay? During every one of these new cycles, every one of these weekly cycles with the oscillator reset, people want to come here and say, "H, I told you so." Or whatever. I, you know, you could probably tell by my attitude, I don't really care. I've seen it all before. I've proven it time and time again. And we're going to do what we always do, which is wait for a swing to form. Once we got a swing, wherever that forms from, we'll draw a line underneath it. That becomes bull market invalidation and like the hard stop-loss level for the spot stack. And then we move to my original base case, which has been the idea for some time now. And that is that we will then get a left translated weekly cycle before heading for the four-year cycle low.
The real question here is not what happens out of this cycle low or any of that. It's does this cycle produce a lackluster bounce right like the red or do we get one final push to new highs and the answer is nobody knows. We'll find out soon enough though and once that happens I am sure what we'll get is a nice tweet from Bob something along the lines of there goes Bitcoin confirming a new weekly cycle should move up from here without looking back and a close below the most recent lows will signal the end of the bull phase of the four-year cycle. So, same stuff over and over and over again. Nothing really changes.
For those of you that remember back here, right, I was saying there's no evidence of a confirmed weekly cycle. We didn't have a cross. There's no trend line break, blah blah blah. There's no swing low pattern on the chart. No move above the 10 MA. And so, we waited for all of those things. Okay, we managed to catch this move via a lot of the crypto-related equities, which moved significantly more than Bitcoin during this phase.
If we cast our minds back to this weekly cycle back here, you know, nobody wanted to. Oh, by the way, I count it slightly differently. I count this as the weekly cycle low, but it doesn't really make too much difference. But if we cast our minds back here, a lot of people didn't want to buy this, right? And even I didn't want to buy it. But again, it doesn't really matter what I think or what I want or how I feel. What matters is we trade the system. And that trade actually turned out to be really good. And so now at this hard right edge, I'm saying the exact same things, right? We are still absent of a swing low, right? Point to the swing low. Oh yeah, you can't, 'cause it's not there. Okay. Point to the cross. Oh yeah, you can't, 'cause it's not there. Point to the move above the 10 MA. Oh yeah, you can't. It's not there. Point to the trend line break. Oh yeah, you can't. It's not there, right? So, we're just going to do what we always do. We're going to wait for the market to show us something and then we can use the system, the same as we always use the system to move forward from there.
Yesterday, I got back from the gym. I checked the tape and I said, "Everyone wants to be a contrarian until it's time to do contrarian stuff." Right? Again, I'm not trying to stroke my own tail here, I'm just telling it how it is. Right? Back here, I had to go live and beg people not to quit because the sentiment was so washed. Right? And back here, you'll remember as well, particularly in the stock market, people were making fun of me every single day of the week despite going flat before the tariff spill and then buying the absolute granny out of the lows, right? And people would relentlessly mock me for posting memes about stock market crashes and stuff like this. And people were saying I was arrogant down here, especially for the stock market. And out of that low, we nailed down absolutely enormous profits for the entire time, the entire rest of the year, right? And so now we're here. Notice we got the exact same thing. Everyone was like, "Ah, my gains." Oh, well, you should have sold. If you're not willing to give back large chunks of open profit, why don't you take the profit? Right? Like, you can't have your cake and eat it. You either have to be the type of trader that draws a line here and says, "I'm out and I don't care what happens." Or you can be the type of trader that says, "I'm willing to give back large chunks of open profit in exchange for staying on trend longer." Okay? But you can't do both. You can't say, "Oh, I'm going to give back open chunks of profit in exchange for staying on the broader trend." And then when you get a selloff like this, go, "Oh, no, my gains. I should have sold. You know, you can't have it both ways, right? You either have to go and be able to sit through giving back open profit or you should have sold, right?
And remember, it goes both directions because if we go back to Wolf, right, we had the complete opposite thing where we got a gap up 30%. And loads and loads of people went, "Oh, I'm selling because it's going to backfill the gap or because it's overextended or I'm not willing to give back 30% gains in a single day." Right? Only for them to all be crying and begging for mercy and looking for a dip to buy as the market then proceeded to rally something like 140% after the 30% gap up. Right? So, you have to kind of figure out which one of these systems is for you. You're either going to be a push the trade kind of trader like I am or you can be a kind of in-out, in-out, shake it all about. There's no right or wrong way to do it. But, you know, you probably a lot of people should be meditating on this at the moment that you can't have both, right? You can't say, "I'm going to be willing to give back large chunks of open profit." And then when you get a dip, not be adding or start crying or saying, "Oh, I should have sold here." Right? Hindsight's always 2020. Why didn't you sell there if you weren't willing to sit through this? So, I'm seeing a lot of that at the moment, but, you know, we're going to do what we always do, which is just keep trading the cycles and keep adding when no one else wants to add and keep doing the stuff that nobody else wants to do, right?
But you can see as we move through these charts, right? Nothing has really happened. We're still right here for the stock market. Okay? And hard to say that anything significant is going on right now. The fear and greed index for the stock market, whilst I'm not the biggest fan of it, is showing extreme fear. Just two and a half% off all-time highs. So, I mean, that is pretty wild. Okay, that's like the only way you can the only way you can describe that. That is insane, right? That's super unprecedented.
Gold still hasn't figured out if it wants to make this a lower high and rollover and head for a weekly cycle or if it's got new highs left in it. But silver, on the other hand, looks like it wants to continue to push higher. So, again, we kept some trades open. Happy days. We're going to keep pushing those, right? Still comfortably sat pushing some of these other mining positions as well, having already nailed down a bulk of the gains. So, I mean, happy days, right? Again, not really much has changed, has it, since a week or two weeks ago, as you can see here.
Bitcoin did finally stop me out from that position a while ago, but again, that's okay because we largely speaking played this via the crypto stocks anyway, and they did really well. In fact, we recently just nailed down almost a 30x in Wolf. And so the portfolio, when added to the cash pile that we built from the mining stocks having taken most of those off that long-term portfolio, is now sat roughly in 50% cash, fully ready and able to take care of this dip just like we took care of the last one. And remember out of the last one, you know, markets have short memories. Camels don't like it. It was people were getting really spiteful down here and people were saying all kinds of silly things like I was cheating my own system and blah blah blah blah. But out of that low, I jumped up and down. I screamed, "I'm contrarian." People were very quick to be like, "Oh, you're an idiot." And then, you know, things like semis did this, right? Like this was one of the level three members ads out of that low. So, I I don't know. I think it's very easy to say buy, buy when there's blood on the streets. But notice as soon as we get to 97k Bitcoin, like nobody wants to touch it into a weekly cycle low with record sentiment flushes and resets. Like I said, we're in extreme fear on the stock market and that's what the chart looks like. You know, like most people, I don't know what they're looking at, but it's really the same stuff over and over again, isn't it? Like, we know where the next daily cycle low is for the stocks. We'll see what happens in the meantime.
Gold is just a case of either it's going to confirm a lower high, as I keep saying, or it's going to push higher, right? We don't know which one it is yet. But if it pushes higher, well, the best way to be wrong in your expectation is to make money whilst doing it. And if it confirms a lower high bounce, we'll just take the rest of the profit from the remaining positions that we kept. And then again, out of this weekly cycle low for Bitcoin, you're going to see me once more add another position. You'll see me once more add a bunch of level three member section crypto stocks, okay? And then we'll be nailing down gains into the end of the year and perhaps even Q1 of next year. We'll see about that. Whilst everyone else cries and gets salty that they too sold the lows just like they sold the lows back here.
So other than that, I mean, what else is there to say? The 10-year yield still pushing up, right? But soon it will hit resistance and roll over and as it does, we'll put rate cuts on the table. If you know, you know. What about the Dixie? Okay, right in the window for a daily cycle low as per the indicator. So, this should get a turn soon and then it's just a case of was that already the three-year cycle low inverted. Okay, or is there one final fake down to the downside that could probably ignite a nice push into the end of the year as is the expectation. So, as you can see, there's really nothing to say, right? I've been saying the same things all week. And even Bitcoin, like I gave you this exact setup yesterday, okay? And I'll prove that to you by pulling up yesterday's video. Now, what we've got here, a bunch of similar lows, okay? It's got a bunch of stop losses in here, okay? And then once these have all built up, I wonder if we're just going to dip in here, fill a big buyer, okay, in here and then rip to the upside. We'll find out.
So there you have it, right? I mean, Bitcoin doing Bitcoin things, running everyone's stops before it runs it back turbo. That's what I think's happening. What about high yield credit? Okay, not blowing out, not looking risk off, is it? The doomsayers are wrong on this. So I don't know. It can change. It can change quickly, but it hasn't changed yet. I hope you have a fantastic weekend. And I hope something can happen at long last so we can have something to talk about next week. Other than that, if you're a splice crew, about to hold a Q&A vid for you guys. So, look out for that. And otherwise, take care from me. All the best. Cheers. Bye.
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