Transcription
Ether has been buried, probably, about five times this year. And in every chat, they tell me that the era of Ether has ended, that betting on Ether will no longer pay off, and all the money is now either in Bitcoin, well, possibly in hype. And at this very moment, there are a bunch of indicators that don't just say, they scream that we are at the very bottom. In this video, I will show you seven charts that, firstly, will give you motivation, and secondly, will explain why your bet on Ether has not yet paid off, but it will definitely pay off soon. And, of course, at the very end, be sure to watch until the end, I will tell you what I do with my capital in such a terrible decline to earn money. Let's start with the basics. Ether is currently worth $1,600. And this, in fact, is not all lost. If you look closely, it's already about a 68% drop from the highs. And in fact, this is definitely not the bottom, but it is a zone where the asset is cheap relative to itself. If we look closely, in past cycles, even taking the closest one we had, Ether dropped by 82%, which is actually a lot. But for us, this means that we are not at the peak from which people jump. We are actually at the floor from which people usually push off. And here, it's basically not about the fact that we won't fall anymore. No, we can easily go down. It's about the fact that the probability of going down is still 50%, but it's not significant. But this is just the price, and it's objectively hanging in the air. We can only assume how much the asset is worth relative to itself in the future or in the past. Yes, but that's how it works here. And now we need to look at the charts, at the indicators that can really tell us what is happening with the asset relative to all other markets. And we will probably start with the most painful thing, with what we have been reproached with for several years. This is the ratio of Bitcoin to Ether. What do we get? In fact, for objectivity, people are absolutely right, and all we do is fall hard. That is, Bitcoin is getting significantly more expensive relative to Ether. But if you look closely, yes, we had a target, it was April 2025. And since then, in principle, we have been holding on, yes. There's even some growth. I remind you that at this point, Ether cost $4,900, and in fact, relative to Bitcoin, it grew well. In principle, if we talk about the trend from the perspective of the target for this chart, it's not even about breaking the highs at all. No, forget about that. Even going halfway down within a correction would mean that Ether is more effective for your capital relative to Bitcoin. And I remind you, this is one of the most painful charts. Next, we will move on to what definitely catches the eye and talks about, well, if the bottom is not close, then it's very, very close. The second metric that hope clings to is logarithmic regression. It sounds scary, actually. It's a very simple, simplest thing. It's like a corridor in which the price of Ether essentially lives its entire life. There is an upper boundary, there is a middle, there is a lower one. So, let's look, let's be guided by history. In 2020, that very COVID crash, a hard fall, a brutal one, and we were pushed below this indicator by another 30%. Well, literally with one candle, yes? Then we only went up. What is happening in March 2025, April-March? We reach exactly the middle, break it slightly, and grow higher. Now, we are not just not at the top, not in the middle, we are pressed hard against the lower boundary. Exactly the lower one. And again, this does not mean that we cannot break it. No. But from the perspective of expectations, falling down from here is one expectation, but from the perspective of breaking this line, it's completely different numbers. And here you might say: "So far, everything is far-fetched, give me more numbers, give me more charts." I agree with you, because we have only just begun. Now let's look at some solid numbers, yes? Let's look. First, it actually looks scary, and I understand you perfectly here, but it's actually such an important thing. This is essentially the realized price. That is, in fact, it is the average price at which all Ether in the network was actually bought. Yes. And what do we see? We fell hard, yes, unequivocally. This is again the year 2020, we directly touched the pink line, the absolute bottom. But if you look at what is happening now, well, we are approaching it. And relative to this figure, we can orient ourselves from the perspective of the bottom at approximately $978 at the moment. But this is the absolute bottom, if you dig a little. Let's look at another chart. It's easier, there are fewer lines here. This is our ACVDD. A tough formula, I won't go into details. This is the specific price, the bottom, from which Ether usually bounced off and very rarely broke through it. And look at what happened in each cycle. That is, we approached the green line, this is 2016, and we broke through it hard, went up. Up to 2020, the most difficult year in the crypto world, we broke through. Specifically, the lowest index is X1, a, CFDD, and then a hard rise, yes, to the very peak, that is, X13. And now we are at the current point, well, very close, yes? That is, again, the maximum bottom according to this indicator is $978. This does not mean that we will reach it. There were historical moments where we broke it, consolidated, and simply plummeted sharply. But this means that falling from $4,900 to the conditional bottom was far. With the current figure, it's already very, very close. So, we have already gone through three metrics. And notice, they were all about the same thing, yes, about the price essentially. Ratio to Bitcoin, historical corridor, market cost. And the conclusion, in fact, is the same for all of them. We are somewhere near the bottom. It's not necessarily that we won't go down further. We can, but at the same time, from the perspective of going down, there are possibly not many more percent left, and that's what's really pleasing. But now we will turn 180 degrees completely. And now we will look from the perspective of, again, valuation on-chain, at the behavior of people themselves. And here it's important, because after all, people control the price. And we will look at the blockchain data, which, well, doesn't lie. What do we have? This is the long-term holders. This is the share of long-term holders who are currently at a loss. So, it's important not to speculate, not to buy, sell, but real investors who form their long-term goals for assets. What do we see? Well, it's all clear in general, actually. That is, in 2018, the share of long-term investors who were at a loss was 61%. Think about it, 61%. In 2020, the worst year for crypto, it was 76%. And what do we have now? Yes, Ether is much higher. That is, in 2020, it cost only $100. Now Ether costs $1,600, but at the same time, 62.5% of long-term Ether holders are at a loss. And historically, you can even see that this is plus or minus the value from which Ether bounces off in terms of price. Another scary word again. This is another metric, MVRV. But the essence is very simple. This thing essentially compares two things. How much the coin is worth now and at what price it was bought on average. Roughly speaking, it shows whether the market is currently in greed, yes? Because they bought much cheaper, or is it in fear, because they are in a severe drawdown. Let's look, in simple terms, everything that is orange is a bubble zone. You definitely need to sell there, it's time to exit unequivocally. And it's worth noting that the last time this bubble zone for Ether was in 2021. That is, in fact, the entire current cycle, yes, if we are guided by Bitcoin, well, Ether has not reached there, yes, most likely, you also understood this perfectly yourself, because if we compare Ether and Bitcoin from peak to peak, then Bitcoin gave 2x, Ether gave how much? 3%, yes? $4,900, and that's trifles. But what interests us now is the fear zone. That is, essentially, this is the green zone. And the first time, of course, was in 2018. We were there for a very long time, unequivocally. And 2019-2020, which now, well, we are close to the bottom, again, all metrics are about the same thing. If we were at $4,900, then it's clear, there's still a lot of falling to do, but now it's worth thinking about, because the bottom is close, most likely, close. You should have one question now, Timur, what if this is not the bottom, but the beginning of a collapse? The answer is obvious, anything can happen, but to calm yourself down a bit, let's look at a couple more interesting figures. We open another chart. And here it's important, it's about what is happening with capital now. Is it realizing losses, yes, or is it realizing profits? It's all very simple here. If there is profit, great, wonderful, huge potential for a fall. People will still close in the black. If, however, we are realizing losses, then this is a capitulation zone. And here it's important that capitulation is not something to be afraid of, it happens only at the bottom or near the bottom. Yes, and by definition, it is one of, perhaps, the best entry points into this market. Let's look at what we have now. The last time people were in profit, that is, realized a plus, was only in November 2025. So, notice what a long period people have been realizing severe losses, and very significant ones. Yes, and in fact, this means that now the market is in capitulation, yes? If we were still finding wallets in profit at current figures, which are realizing it, it would be a tough signal that they haven't squeezed enough, they need to squeeze more. But here we clearly see that, yes, there might be further decline, yes, we might correct further, and, well, anything can happen, but at the same time, the market is already capitulating now. Let's look at another important figure. You've probably heard about it often. This is the RSI index, relative strength of the asset. Let's start with a small timeframe. On the daily chart, well, it's clear, we went in July, broke through almost the bottom value of 13 for RSI. Now we are growing with sideways market movement. Most likely, this means that we will go down again. But if we remove this mouse fuss and look at a deeper timeframe, there is a kind of helicopter view of the entire market. Let's take the weekly charts, but here it's clearly understandable that we are again at the lower boundary, yes, it was only broken in 2022, 2018, and we are very, very close. Let's take an even larger timeframe, a monthly one, but here everything is super clear. That is, on the monthly chart, we are unequivocally at the bottom figures. And here we need to summarize. I'm not saying that this is the bottom for Ether. No, it might be the bottom, but from the perspective of working with my capital, I am planning for a further decline. In my channel, I made a separate analysis of how much Ether could cost in the worst-case scenarios. And there, actually, the figures are interesting, but they indicate that if we are not close, then we are very, very close to the bottom. From the perspective of my approach, for example, I am setting aside capital within the framework of working with DeFi, so that I have enough comfortably up to 1 thousand, up to 1.2 thousand for Ether. Based on Bitcoin cycles, well, different values there, but the expectation is that it will be around a thousand, around October, November, well, for Ether, maybe, maybe, but the most important thing is that we have already fallen well. And from the perspective of working with capital, we can just sit and wait for a reversal for a very long time. But on the other hand, now is the time that definitely needs to be used to work with your capital. If you are interested, write in the comments, and I will shoot a separate segment on what is currently relevant from the DeFi perspective to save your positions. Or to earn, each in their own way. That's all. I hope this was valuable for you. From you, a like, a subscription, a comment. And, of course, we will see each other again soon.