Transcription
For those of us living outside of the United States of America and staring slightly openmouthed at the avalanche of sensational events happening there on almost a daily basis, it's easy to come to all sorts of dystopian conclusions about the political and socioeconomic trajectory of that country and how it'll likely affect the rest of the world.
If like me, your interests lie predominantly in climate and sustainability challenges, then you could be forgiven for thinking that these systematic demolition of federal protection for the environment and the dismantling of incentives and even the removal of permissions for new and existing projects effectively represents the complete shutdown of renewable energy in the USA and a 180° U-turn back to the old days of total fossil fuel dominance. It's called Drill Baby Drill.
But if you can navigate your way past these shouty headlines, a very different story starts to emerge. There are coalitions, court dockets, procurement notices, and capital flows that all point towards a major battle happening right now across the entire nation between individual state actors and the federal government. So, are there still reasons to be hopeful about America's energy transition? Yes, there are.
Hello and welcome to Just Have a Think. So, here we are then, galloping towards the back end of 2025, a year in which the US federal government has been rowing hard in the opposite direction on everything to do with climate mitigation and the energy transition. And you might be thinking, well, that's that then. America is destined to fall behind the rest of the world and become the pariah of the global decarbonization movement. But dig a bit deeper and it starts to become clear that that's just not the case. 2025 has actually seen a pretty remarkable countermovement from both Democrat and Republican run states as well as city mayors, attorneys general, and even the private sector.
Before we look at that, it's that time again when I feel I need to ask for your help. You all know that I operate as a one-man band here at the Just Have a Think channel, doing all the research, writing, filming, animating, and editing myself. You probably also know that I never run ads or sponsor messages in any of my videos either, which means there's no marketing team to smoo the operators of the YouTube algorithm to ramp up views and accelerate subscriber numbers. I rely entirely on you folks appreciating what I do and choosing to press the like and subscribe buttons. About 40% of you on average haven't done that yet, though. That could mean you don't rate my videos much, of course, which is completely fair enough. But if you do enjoy the content and you want to carry on watching new videos each week, then subscribing really is the easiest way to help me keep the channel growing. It doesn't cost you a penny and I promise you won't get any spam email nonsense from me either. It's just a very kind recognition of what I do. So if you feel you can then it really would be hugely appreciated.
So how are states and commercial operators responding then? Well, first of all, many of the new proposals are being challenged in court. The Brookings Institution publishes an updated list of all live actions on its website and it's a very long list indeed. State attorneys general are front and center in this fight. In the Northeast, Vermont and New York are arguing in court that their climate super fund laws are legal and necessary to protect residents after multi-billion dollar flood losses. This one is turning into a monumental battle that could become a major test of state powers versus federal oversight. on vehicle and truck emissions. California and its partner states are preparing to litigate any federal attempt to revoke waivers or preempt state rules, arguing that Congress has already legislated for California leadership in this area under the Clean Air Act. Campaigners have pointed out that the federal preemption only applies to vehicle emissions and not to financial incentives, which they say means California's existing advanced clean truck or ACT program, which is essentially an incentive scheme, not a regulatory restriction, should be entirely exempt from federal intervention.
Then there's the recent report compiled by the Department of Energy in an attempt to rescind the so-called endangerment finding published by the EPA in 2009 to underpin greenhouse gas regulations. According to analysis by the folks at Carbon Brief, the DOE document, which was compiled in just two months by five allegedly independent researchers hand selected by the climate skeptic, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, contains more than a hundred false or misleading claims. That information has not escaped the attention of state officials who are already signaling aggressive resistance. So if the administration really does try to revoke the endangerment finding, that's an immediate sprawling court battle. That 2009 work was based on a mountain of peer-reviewed science. Anything replacing it would have to pass what are known in US law as arbitrary and capricious tests, which are there precisely to prevent a government agency making up a new rule or scrapping an existing one just on a whim. States will no doubt join national NOS's to argue that this latest attempt by the DOE simply doesn't pass those tests.
But away from the relentless negativity of litigation, there are more positive signs of progress and coordination between forward-looking states. The US Climate Alliance is an organization that was formed in 2017 in response to the original orange executive order removing the USA from the Paris Climate Agreement. It's led by a group of governors from blue and red states representing more than half the US economy and population. The alliance has reaffirmed targets of 50 to 52% cuts in emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050 with a new waypoint of a 61 to 66% reduction by 2035 compared to 2005 levels. States are also updating and tightening their own rules just as Washington tries to loosen them at the federal level. Legislatures and regulators in alliance states are moving ahead on building performance standards, clean power procurements, grid storage mandates and methane rules, all of which sit squarely within state authority. Even if federal agencies weaken national baselines, state baselines can still stay high, forcing cleaner outcomes within their borders and crucially keeping supply chains moving.
And in the heart of capitalism and still the largest economy in the world, the market is voting with its wallet. One of the most powerful levers that individual states have got at their disposal is something called demand aggregation. Big public power utilities and state procurement rules can create enormous markets for electric vehicles, heat pumps, and clean power. All of which is eagerly exploited by manufacturers in those sectors. As this Reuters article points out, clean tech isn't boutique anymore. It's often the cheapest option over a project's life. So even if federal guidance leans fossil, states plus markets still create bankable demand for clean energy. Despite all the headlines, to the contrary, long-term deals by major corporate entities like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Walmart, and others to buy renewable energy via 10 to 20-year power purchase agreements are providing certainty and security to developers and attracting investment capital into the sector. And when it comes to multi-state grid planning and regional transmission organizations, state public utility commissions have real authority. As more and more utility companies send out so-called requests for proposals or RFPs for contractors to build out new infrastructure, they're increasingly finding the economics of renewables plus battery energy storage make them the only logical choice for rapid, reliable, and affordable grid expansion. As long as those states keep ordering those clean energy systems to meet their own targets, developers will keep building them. That's straight out of high school economics 101, the law of supply and demand.
The point is, the US federal government simply does not have the power to wave a magic wand in the form of an oversized Sharpie pen to erase all state climate policy. Constitutional structure and statutes matter. States control electric utility regulation, building codes, land use, and a lot of transportation planning. Washington can slow climate policy, but it can't stop states from decarbonizing their own economies, especially when multiple states collaborate in a show of united coordination. And all of this doesn't just matter to America and American citizens, either. It has implications far beyond US borders. When over half of United States GDP is generated in states that are still targeting rapid emissions cuts, global suppliers are going to continue building factories for clean tech in the United States. And that benefits everyone, doesn't it? Prices fall, learning curves steepen, and adoption spreads, even into states that aren't on board at the moment because market forces are extremely powerful, especially in an economy like America's.
Ultimately, the recent federal rollbacks can't be discounted completely. Of course, they could potentially raise emissions, delay benefits, and create uncertainty. But America is not a single unitary state like many authoritarian regimes that we see in other parts of the world. State governors, attorneys general, city mayors, utility commissions, and behemoth corporations all still have significant agency in the US even now. and they appear to have absolutely no intention of shying away from the fight.
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