Rory Sutherland’s Marketing MASTERCLASS: How To Advertise Like A Billion Dollar Brand

The problem I've got with the advertising industry is it sells insights like bloody Fab eggs. Here is an insight which you can have, and it's just for you, and it's really expensive, and you can just have one. There are tons of insights, and I want to sell them like Coca-Cola. Ruin the whole thing.

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I think it should be a new Norman podcasting that the guest gets to recommend one thing they think is particularly useful. They don't have to be paid to do it, but it would just be interesting because it would actually put it this way. I think advertising, you know, we all accept the fact that sometimes people need us to know about things and need us to see things. But the traditional kind of contract with the consumer is that you mix additional useful content with the content people, you know, you want people to see, and it's genuinely mutually beneficial. Okay, you get your message across, they get funded content, e.g., a newspaper historically, okay, which they otherwise wouldn't have had.

That's why, interestingly, David Ogilvy was always opposed to he didn't like billboards or posters, and because he thought they broke the contract with the consumer in the sense that whereas a newspaper or TV program, the surrounding content which benefited the the consumer or reader was funded by the advertiser. In the case of the billboard, the person who owned the property got a lot of money. Yeah, the consumer just got an uglier environment. Okay, and he thought that the fundamental sort of value exchange of advertising was broken by the billboard because, in other words, normally advertising is a kind of value exchange between, um, you know, the, I mean, you know, if you, if you take it in very simply, I think Amazon Prime, there are two versions, aren't there? There's ad-free and there's advertising-funded Amazon Prime. And if you take the advertising thing, you pay a lower subscription. MH, okay, but you get ads. And that's that's an exchange between the recipient of the message and the sender of the message. Yeah, okay. It's effectively like, you know, adding a spoonful of sugar, if you like. And, um, so, so Ogilvy's argument was that, um, uh, effectively poster advertising kind of broke that, um, contract. It broke that implicit contract.

Now, you could argue, interestingly, that bus shelter advertising is completely legit. MH, because the advertising pays for the bus shelter, and therefore you get not to stand in the rain in return for which you look at an ad. And so David Ogilvy would probably find that acceptable if the bus shelters are reasonably attractive. But he would argue that a plain billboard, if he were still alive, he would argue that a plain billboard, you know, on a wall in New York or, what's more, in the American countryside, was simply making the environment uglier. Is that sort of, is the different context which, yeah, yeah, yeah.

So, I, I think where else would it, where else do you think it would be abhorrent to sort of advertise using sort of a billboard? Yeah. Well, you could argue, um, you could argue that a digital billboard that rotated between advertising content and useful information, okay, would be acceptable by that Ogilvy definition. You've seen the Coca-Cola one when it's like it has the temperature and it goes, it's, and it's an American one and it says it's 38 degrees or something, whatever it is, time for Coca-Cola. And it's like giving, well, that's a thermometer. So you could argue that actually has. And if you, if you rotated between sort of, you know, all all tube lines are running normally, uh, uh, latest departure times from the station, traffic information, news, and an ad. David Ogilvy, in a digital poster format, would probably find that, provided it was genuinely useful, okay.

Um, I, uh, what was the, what was the argument I had which we, we no longer have poems on the tube? Do you remember that? You used to, there was a sort of thing where a certain number of ad spaces on the London Underground were actually poems. That's one thing I was going to ask you about actually. Um, and we can actually, we can sort of jump into two things. Is, um, is I've been sort of obsessed with Daniel Kahneman's, um, have you read The Undoing Project? Yeah, most. That was it's probably one of the best biography/books I've think I've read. And I think it was really interesting in getting their context of how Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman sort of, they're almost bromance in terms of creating it all. Although the book suggests it was a bit more fraud. Well, that, yeah, towards the end it was. Yeah, towards the end. And, and I, and I have to say, I mean, I think Daniel's probably a much gentler, was a much gentler kind of guy than Amos, wasn't he? But what I found interesting and what, what I want to link this to is to the poems on the train is this Level 1, uh, sorry, System 1, System 2 thinking. Which System 1, I think he actually talks about in, um, uh, or Daniel does in "Food" about like that alliteration, which we see in advertising, is like super System 1. It makes us happy. Do you know what I mean? It's so it's all intuition. When we see like, KFC, Finger Licking Good, yeah, like that. But I was on the tube the other day and I was thinking, I never [ __ ] got this advert, which is why I wanted to speak to you about it. Okay, I'll try and explain it, but I can't, which is why do Jack Daniels always have some long essay on the tube? And it's like, I have to look at it and I never actually read it. I don't know what it says. Do you know the Jack Daniels advert? Doesn't matter. Doesn't doesn't necessarily matter. Why are they doing that? Do you know what I mean?

Well, first of all, if you're a, if you're a tube, um, if you're a cross-tracks poster, the argument has always been that it's not a poster, it's a press ad, because there's dwell time, right? So people, people are waiting for a tube train, so they have five or 10 minutes. And if they're interested in Jack Daniels, they'll read the copy. A second part of that is actually kind of aesthetic, which, which is Jack Daniels has stuck with the same local ad agency and the same look for its ads for pretty much 50 years, which is kind of right for a brand which is timeless and iconic. And so the ads are in some sense sort of old-fashioned in that they have that copy. But there's also a belief, which I think makes sense, which is there's a psychological value to unread copy. Now, that sounds ridiculous, but the fact that you visibly have something to say, even if nobody reads what it is, actually has some meaning. You, let's say there's a new car and it says, "This car runs on air," or whatever it may be. If you just say, "This car runs on air," someone taking a simple glance of that might well go, "Well, that sounds like a load of bollocks to me. It's too good to be true." Whereas if there's 300 words of explanatory copy beneath it, even if you don't read that copy, um, uh, then, um, it suggests that they have something to say about this, and there might be some substantiation for their claim. So even if you don't read it, the fact that the words are there has meaning. But there's, there's another final thing, which is generally, okay, if you, you know, we prefer 60, you know, we prefer 60-second TV ads to 15-second TV ads. If you can turn a 3-second poster into a 60-second poster by giving someone something to read for no extra cost, why wouldn't you do that? I mean, I'm, I'm a huge defender of of advertising copy, particularly in situations like that where, after all, people have nothing else to do but read. They can look at their phones now. Similarly, in a newspaper, someone has decided when they pick up a newspaper that that's the part of the day in which they're going to do some reading, because that's why they've picked up a newspaper. And therefore, providing them with something to read, given the assumption they're in a reading mood, isn't altogether unreasonable.

Finally, there's a very strong belief, with quite a lot of evidence for it, which is that people who read, um, the copy are two classes of people. Either people who own the product already. So one of the things they noticed is that people who already own a car are particularly assiduous at reading the copy in advertisements for the very car they already own. Okay. And secondly, people who are undecided about whether or not to buy something. In other words, people who are kind of on the cusp are much more likely to read the copy than people who are either definitely converted or definite rejectors. So you might argue that the audience you have with your body copy, as opposed to the headline, is a subset of the overall audience, but it's a disproportionately valuable subset because it's the people who are going, "I was thinking of buying an air fryer, but I need to know a bit more," or "I need a bit of extra convincing to push me over the line." Yes.

So, so, so no, Jack Daniels is a very peculiar brand case. David Ogilvy actually said that it was one of the brands he most admired as a brand that had maintained a completely kind of premium, uh, status and a kind of, yeah. So do you think the long, the long copy elevates its status or keeps it status? Yes, yes, it does. And it also, um, they've always done it that way. And if you think about it, Jack Daniels is one of those brands which is basically, they've always done it that way. The, okay, yeah. The long-form copy is interesting. I, um, as a Welshman, I'm proud to say the Daniels family actually came from Swansea originally. Daniel Kahneman? No, no, no. Daniel Jack Daniels. Jack Daniels. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Let's talk, let's talk about, um, that book. And I really, because I think we've sort of talked about it. I want really want to link, um, Daniel's work with food and drink. And I think it's fascinating. I know you talked me last time about the peak-end rule, at the end of the experience is better. I just interviewed Josh from The Ledbury and I was sort of asking questions like, how, how do you think about the peak-end rule and almost like these behavioral sort of science, behavioral economics things you can do in restaurants? And obviously, they're kind of a bit like [ __ ] special effects in a film. So one of the things they do at The Ledbury, you know, The Ledbury, I've been there, yeah, fantastic. One of the things they do at The Ledbury is they will say, and I was asking, what are these little things they do? So that you can only ever have a three-week, um, booking time. So you can't book for three months in advance. Got it. Because what, what Josh says, what that does, it sets people's expectations here, and it means the longer they wait, the bigger their expectations are. So it's easier for them to, to not make it, to, to not match their expectations. Thought that was absolute genius. So you can only book, only book three, three weeks in advance. The second thing they do, and now, now I've seen this, I can't unsee it. Like, so when you order with the bill, um, he goes, and this is the peak-end rule, he goes, "Bring the [ __ ] card machine." Because the amount of times that you go to restaurants, this is a bill down, and then they put, they put the bill down, and then they bugger off. You're just sat there. I've never understood that. Whether it was originally thought to be discourteous that you left the bill with people. There was an old kind of norm in restaurants that you left the bill with people, and they were kind of there to check it. You didn't put them under any pressure to pay. I also get annoyed in coffee shops where once I've placed my order, okay, I'm happy to pay. You see, I've got my card ready. I go, "I want a black, white," and I want them to go, "That's £3.50," so I can put my card away. I've got my hands free for the coffee. You know, Costa, I trust you, okay? I'm not going to pay, and you, they're going to suddenly deny that I've paid or refuse to give me a coffee. Okay, it's, you know, you know, I trust those brands broadly speaking not to completely rook me. But generally, they fart around making the coffee and leave you there dithering with your card or mobile phone before you get to pay. I completely agree that when you come and bring the bill, bring the card machine. Don't plonk it down on the table. I think that might be a bit presumptuous. Just have it there, but you should have it on your person so people who want to pay straight away, yeah, can do it in one stage rather than two.

There are certain interesting areas where I've noticed that that nearly every restaurant fails on that score. There's an interesting hotel observation I've made which I find fascinating. And this has literally been the case for every hotel I've stayed in from like one star to five star with one exception. I can't remember which one it was, it might have been in Asia. When you get your laundry done, they bring your laundry back the same day. You drop it in before 9:00, they bring it back before 7:00. That's the standard practice with hotel laundry. And they never bring a replacement bag or a replacement form. So if you want your laundry done on more than one day during your hotel stay, if you're staying there for four or five days, and let's face it, you're much more likely to do laundry if you've got a long stay than if you've got a single overnight stay. In every single case, if I've been staying in a hotel for four nights, say, I've had to ring down to reception and ask them to bring up a laundry bag and a form to fill in. Yeah. Now, if you think about it, it should be baked into every single hotel that when you return someone's laundry, it comes not only with laundry but with a replacement bag. In fact, you might even want two bags, 'cause the person might be a real laundry fiend and you might be in with a big opportunity. But you definitely need to bring, you know, two bags and two forms back. But they never do that. For some reason, when they change over the room, yes, they then replace the laundry bag, but that's for a new guest who may not even want laundry at all. Yeah. It's matter how these little. And you're absolutely right about that point about the card machine. It it's baffled me. Wagamama, interestingly, created an app where you could just pay and walk out. You, the server gave, I think you gave your server a number, and you could effectively then just go on your phone, pay, or tip, pay, walk. And the reason Wagamama introduced that, I don't know how successfully it was adopted, to be honest. A lot of these things, to be honest, this was pre-COVID, and, you know, a lot of things have changed since then. But their research showed, if I remember rightly, that people basically liked everything about Wagamama. The one thing they didn't like was waiting around to pay. Yeah. The one thing they basically wanted to do. And actually, if you think about it, that's kind of the virtue of an Nando's or a McDonald's, which is once you're done, you're done. You just walk the hell out. Yeah. And so feeling trapped at the end of a meal because someone's gone to fetch the card machine when, I mean, it's not like it's 1973 and people are going to pay by check or cash, okay? Nearly everybody is going to pay by card. And you're absolutely right. This, this was a very, very good edict because it's one of the strange things I've noticed repeatedly, and I didn't understand it either. Now I can understand that plonking the thing down is presumptuous, but having it sort of, you know, on a holster seems only reasonable.

I was thinking of another couple of things as well. Um, so I went to this hotel in Lisbon. MH, which was a bit of a dump, right? But I was, I was thinking, there's actually something you could do, whether this is a peak-end rule, but you could ramp up the perceived value of every single restaurant by doing this one thing. You think about all the best restaurants you've been to. When you go to the toilet, it always smells [ __ ] amazing, and there's always some sort of incense. And it, you come out the toilet, you think, "Oh my God, this is a really luxurious place." So this place, Selena in Lisbon, is, I think Michelin, actually. If you want to be a one or two star, or even three star restaurant, they impose a whole load of rules about the toilet, okay, that make. I'm, I'm not quite sure what they are. Apparently, they're pretty oppressive. So a lot of people, you know, you've got to spend, I can't remember which restaurant it was, but they were basically told, "You have to spend £200,000 on your bloody toilets." Oh, really? To keep your place in the G. Yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, I mean, interestingly, the, the hairdressing chain, Rush, yeah, the founders of that told me they over-invest. And the reason for that is a very clever one, which is quite often there are establishments, restaurants, etcetera, where the whole, what you might call front, the, the onstage bit, is pretty plush. And then you go to the toilets, and it's basically, you know, like something from the third world, right? Yeah. And they realize that an awful lot of barbers and hairdressers were like that. Everything looks pretty swanky until you go backstage and it looks like [ __ ]. And they, although obviously most of their customers don't use the loo, they deliberately over-invest. Buster, that's what that's what that Selena is. 'Cause I, I was in there and I was like, it smelt amazing and I was thinking, this is like, all they've done is they've just. And again, it probably by Michelin standard, you, you've got to spend £200k on a toilet. But I think, you know, most restaurants in London could massively up their perceived value through like an Easter egg of surprise. Just make it slightly better. Me, because most of them, as you say, it's like they get the front, front of stage looking great, and then you go to the toilet and it's like, or, or, what's more, you know, in other words, you're dining on the second floor, on the toilets in the basement. That is a serious pisser. It used, it used to really piss me off in London stations that they always put the toilets underground. So they had space for another branch of, you know, Oliver Bonas. So people with luggage were forced to drag their bags down four flights of steps in order to have a piss. You know, that always struck me as fundamentally annoying. Um, and, you know, and a lot of that, I think, is done for kind of real estate reasons. In other words, you, you know, you bury the toilets underground because the ground level is more valuable, as, you know, retail than it is as toilets.

Toilets are interesting, actually, because they're an absolutely classic case of, um, uh, of market failure. Because, well, generally in the UK and the US, you never charge for them. Slightly different in Continental Europe, where, you know, in France, for until recently, you have an elderly French woman just sitting in the toilets taking tips. Okay. And because, because you don't pay for toilets, consequently, there's no incentive to actually provide them. And I would argue that the public are badly. And having had some prostate surgery, you're made acutely aware of this, the public in London is very badly served. Train travelers are extremely badly served for restroom provision. So the new London Bridge station, for example, unless you're disabled, in which case you can use the key to get into the disabled toilet on the platform, uh, if you are changing trains at London Bridge station, you have no access to a toilet at all. And the toilets that do exist require you to go through a barrier and walk about 100 yards. Now, given that they spent, I don't know, £300 million on that station, okay, that strikes me as an abominable failure to serve the customer. And we're starting to see this as, as basically more and more organizations are just run by the finance function and have no real focus on customer centricity. What the finance function do is they fall into this incredibly dangerous trap of thinking that where you make money is where you're adding value, okay? They're thinking that the things that people pay for are the things that are valuable. But as someone who knows what you know, a restaurateur learns very quickly that that isn't true. That there are things like atmosphere, vibe, crowd, etcetera, that contribute massively to the enjoyment of an establishment, which you can't directly charge for. Yes, okay.

Yeah, I was speaking to, I wrote about this in my newsletter. I was interviewing, um, my mate who owns Black Bear Burger, which is, if you ever want a good burger in London, it's incredible. Where is it? There must be, got one in Brixton, they've got one in Exmouth Market. But their whole point is, we're a restaurant that does burgers, we're not a burger restaurant. Got it. It's really interesting. But we were basically, and he started off in, uh, street food in Hackney. And we were basically saying that we were talking, and he, we were saying street food is like comedy, whereas restaurants like movies. And by that, I mean, is what we're saying is in street food, it's like, you know, you say a joke, comedian says a joke, and it's just the instantaneous feedback. It's like the crowd laugh or they don't. Yes. In street food, you give someone a [ __ ] burger, they're not going to like it, right? You know, you give, you give someone a good burger, they laugh, or they do, they do enjoy it. In street food, you're out there all alone, basically, and it's just the relationship. He says, but that's why I mean QSR restaurants and street food, the feedback is very fast. Feedback is very fast. So I always recommend, I mean, I always recommend actually, if you basically, if you can work in hospitality, it's a free MBA. Yeah, because you get to understand every component of a business from supply to marketing to, you know, sales to, uh, you know, all the sort of stuff about, you know, staff psychology and teamwork. You get all of that. It's like a big business in microcosm. So you get to understand everything and how it fits together. I also think that working in hospitality is brilliant because like comedy, the feedback is fast. Yeah. So very weirdly, you'll occasionally go to a very small comedy club and you'll come across someone like Chris Rock, okay, doing a slightly weird, slightly stumbling routine like with notes and saying, like, "This is going to be [ __ ] and what's interesting about it is that some of them aren't, some of the jokes aren't funny. And you think, why the hell is Chris Rock playing this very small venue? Yeah. And the reason he's doing it is he's trying out his big material before before he goes onto the big stage. And so people are grateful enough to have Chris Rock in a small venue that they don't mind if a few of the jokes fall flat. And he'll occasionally go, "That one didn't really work, did it? I'll obviously have to reshape that." And, and I, I agree with you that, um, quick service restaurant, fast food, and street food have that incredible strength that you get fast feedback. Yeah. And therefore, the speed in which you can evolve your offering. Now, if you contrast that with say, customer service for a bank, right? And what I would say to banks is, you can't learn much about your customer service in a bank because it's too slow. Nobody changes their bank account for 15 years, okay? If you piss off a customer, they don't actually leave, they just become apathetic. They keep their current account open, they just don't buy anything else from you. So you can invest in customer service in a bank and you don't know whether it's worked for six years, okay? And it's very hard to measure because so much has happened in the intervening time that attributing say, customer attention or, uh, cross-sales to a particular investment in customer experience is very, very slow and very inexact. So what I'd argue that a bank needs to do is go and steal from fast food restaurants, which very quickly learn what they're actually doing, and, you know, if you're failing, very quickly, and you know, if you're succeeding, very quickly.

Now, this is actually where it gets very interesting, because you have this business where businesses are controlled by the finance function, and the finance function is broadly speaking, aspic, and it's incapable of doing something for which there is no, um, prior evidence. And I had this discussion with somebody in a business, I'd better not name, but I said, "Can, can anybody answer a question?" I said, "Amazon has a thing called 'Call Me Back' as part of their customer service. Call me, call me back. Call me back." So if you, let's say, order something from Amazon, it doesn't arrive, or the locker's wonky, or something like that. You go online, you say, "This is the product with which I have a problem. This is who I am," 'cause you're logged in, okay? "This is what my problem is. Now, call me back." And about six seconds later, someone who already knows who you are, so you don't have to go through an identity procedure, calls you back and says, "I understand that your hats didn't arrive. Um, is there anything we can do to help?" Now, psychologically, the fact that they call you is very powerful because you're made to feel like a valued customer, not a supplicant. If you're made to wait on a phone call, it makes you feel like a supplicant. They don't really want to talk to me, they're trying to avoid me. Whereas if they ring you, it feels like a genuine service call. That's one psychological factor. But the second thing is, okay, um, it's incredibly efficient at problem-solving very quickly. And I've asked various other service-led brands, "Why is nobody else stolen that?" Literally, I've never come across anybody else doing that. And they said, "Well, we tried to do it, but the finance department said they need to see the business case and the cost-benefit analysis." To which my answer was, "You don't need a business case. Right? Here's your business case. Amazon do it. Amazon test everything. Amazon get very, very fast feedback on what customer service investments work and what customer service investments don't work because people buy from Amazon very, very frequently. So you can quickly see if something you're doing is having a deleterious effect on sales." Just go and steal from Amazon. If, if the finance people say, "No, no, no, you have to prove it," okay, it's a fundamental drag on innovation. This this requirement that every single item of business expenditure, and it's a myth spread by management consultancies, by finance people, by tech firms, the idea that you can create a perfectly quantifiable business. And one of the reasons businesses aren't growing is they're not allowed to do anything they can't prove. And by definition, anything new has some element of uncertainty about it. Anything significantly innovative will have an element of uncertainty in terms of how it plays out. If you're not allowed to do those things, effectively all you can do is take business as usual and try and cut costs, which is exactly what we see from businesses. And so, so effectively, there's a fundamental, um, imbalance in business activity. And I blame all kinds of left-brain entities for this, which is the need for quantification and measurement has prevented, um, what you might call meaningful innovation and opportunities from being discovered. That's why I think I'm obsessed with restaurants.

So back to the sort of the street food thing, is I think you're right that you get the fast feedback. That's where you can really test your offering. Yep. But then, as Stu was saying from Black Bear Burger, is once you've got that down, you can then go into a restaurant setting, which is what they did. And you've got like, special effects. Interesting. They use the street food effectively as the, what you might call the canary in the mine, as it were. Well, like that's that's that's Chris Rock testing his his special. And then the restaurant, sorry, it's, yeah, work on his special. Then the restaurant's actually the special. So it's the lights. But the lights could be. So for them, they realized that eating, hip hop's the best music to play to eat a burger to. They realized that they were actually going to, um, I think we talked about last time, you know, that restaurant that got the beer smellier. They realized, okay, we, the way we're going to beat Shake Shack and, um, and I think he went, that's William Gadar, isn't it? Will Gadar, who wrote this fantastic book, which I'm going to plug, which is called "Unreasonable Hospitality." So, which I think has now, it's very easy to say, "Well, hold on, he's at the very, very top end of the restaurant game." But that's not to say that he's without financial constraints. Absolutely not. It's very expensive running a restaurant. There's a great podcast where they, which they have, a Michelin-style chef who talks about the margins of of a great restaurant. He was basically saying they make 3%. These big, big Michelin star restaurants. What they'll do is, someone like a Gordon Ramsay will make, maybe not Gordon Ramsay, but one of these big chefs like Paul Ainsworth won't make much money on his Michelin-style restaurant number six, but will then have his pub, his bistro, his. And as a collective, the margins work. So this is very interesting because I think that the need for every single part of your business to make money, which is imposed by finance, okay, is actually an obstacle to existing businesses creating what you might call these ecosystems. Where, I mean, an example of an ecosystem would be catwalk fashion, okay? Doesn't make any money, right? Paris Fashion Week, nobody wears those clothes, nobody buys them. Not many people are both rich enough and attractive enough to walk around with their breasts hanging out, right? Okay, right, okay. There may be people who are attractive enough, there may be people who are rich enough, but the overlap on that Venn diagram probably isn't all that big, okay? Now, or, or the third, the third circle is comfortable with doing such a thing, okay? What you do is you, you run that business effectively as a flagship for your diffusion brands, okay? And so what's quite interesting about what the business we're in, which is sort of personal broadcasting, okay? It's a very complicated ecosystem where you write a book, you do paid talks, you do podcasts, some of which make more money than others, but effectively in combination, you make more money if you do all of those things than if you only do two of them.

This is so, okay, let's try going on the US financial speaker circuit, which is the most insanely lucrative in terms of payment by the hour. The US business speaker circuit is ludicrously well-paid, and the financial circuit is literally, you know, if you got a Nobel Prize rate economics, it's kind of like $100,000 a pop, okay? Now, the point is, what the kind of the financial logic would say is, "Just do those things. Don't write a book because it's much less profitable as a use of your time, okay? Don't appear on podcasts, um, uh, you know, don't do anything that isn't speaking to the Deutsche Bank annual conference in, you know, Florida or wherever it might be." Okay? However, the real money is to be made in actually doing all of those things. Some of which, yes, when separated out, are more lucrative than the than others, but they're not really separable in terms of the overall value equation. And the same will be true there with with fashion, where catwalk fashion is effectively done, uh, for the halo effect, yes. So you sell a lipstick at a margin of 90% because there's someone with their breasts out walking down a catwalk in Paris, okay? Now, it'd be very, very easy to say, "Let's get out of that business." But when you get out of that business, you can no longer sell the lipstick. It's the sum of the whole. So similarly, I mean, well, there's a, there's a chef called Tommy Banks, who's, he's got the one of the best restaurants I think I've ever been to up north, and it's a destination restaurant called The Black Swan in Oldstead. I've heard of it. Marvelous. Never been there. Unreal. Like the food was just [ __ ] it was amazing. Anyway, he then, again, so that's his, that's his halo. Then he's got the diffusion one, which is his, um, got another restaurant in York called Roots, another pub called The By, By Land in, or something like that. Anyway, I just saw on Instagram last night, he is selling pies at at York Farmers' Christmas Market for three weeks. But because he's got the Michelin star, uh, credentials, those pies are going to fly out like hot cakes, or pies, or hot pies, I should say, because because he's got that whole, that sort of brand ecosystem. And if he wants to, he can wander along to Dispatch or any of those, then he's got Michelin Oldstead. So he's, he's already got that. He's already. So that's on Shopify, presumably, is it? I think I might have seen that on Shopify for some strange reason. The Shopify, the shop app seems to recommend quite a lot of pies to me. I don't know why that might be. Um, but I, I've got a vague idea that that's appeared on my shop app, um, recommendations.

What pies do you like? Um, I think the pie is one of the great British contributions to food. If you look at, if you look at British food, okay, we excel at breakfast and tea, not lunch and dinner. And we also, is that Northern tea? Like, like we also, but also tea time food. I mean, you know, there are kind of finger sandwiches, scones, etcetera. And we also seem to excel at food that's portable, whether it's the pasty, the pie, the sandwich, all of them seem to have originated with us. If you want food that you can carry around, okay, you know, British food's your thing. Yeah. That's, I interviewed Julian Metcalfe last week, who did Pret and itsu. And he was saying itsu is a piece of, not a piece of piss, that's quite. But it's been much easier to go international with itsu because it's like, people understand they're focusing on just Asian food. Got it. Whereas Pret, as in the sandwich, was inherently more difficult because you'd go to Lebanon or, um, I don't know where else, or, or New York, and the sandwich, maybe New York's not the best example, but the sandwich doesn't just translate to, like, people get sushi wherever you are, really. Yes, yes, yes, yes. But like the nuance per per market is so, so different. In, um, in those things, I think to point like, we do do, we're we're [ __ ] great at like portable foods. There's a great business called Willy's Pies. Go on, tell me more. Yeah, so clever. They've kind of stepped back and they've broken all the rules and they looked at a category that was dead or like kind of archaic. I think it's much easier to pick an archaic category and reinvent it. So, uh, pies, like non-reinvented pies. He worked at St. John and Brat, so he's got the credentials and the status of being a great chef. Then they started, started making these pies during lockdown as he was on furlough. And they are, if you like, a pie, Rory. They're [ __ ] delicious, like really good flavors. But then the stroke of genius is they looked, they stepped back from, they looked at the distribution landscape. And most, most pies would go into either your farmers' market, got it, your, um, your sort of deli, your Whole Foods, potentially Waitrose. And everyone sort of looks at that and always talk about a slipstream channel. There's a channel which you can just aggressively attack which no one else is thinking about. And now it all makes sense in retrospect. They've gone into Arsenal Football Club. They've gone into, 'cause pies and footballs, pie and mash. They're playing on all that sort of old. You've been to the Midlands? Because the big football food there is the balti pie. Have you ever tried one? So it's the ultimate fusion. Great. It's a brilliant, brilliant thing. Someone bought me a balti pie. I think they were a fan of possibly the Saddlers. Who are the Saddlers? You'll have to, you're a Brummie, aren't you? It's not who you got, is it? Coventry or the Saddlers? I can never remember. Um, but anyway, it's one of those Brummie teams. They've been, they've been, they've been to one of those teams. They come back with a balti pie. And, um, and, uh, it was fantastic. I mean, this was literally in a wrapper. It didn't look very promising, but I cooked it and it was absolutely sensational.

I also think there's something now you've got most households have a microwave and an air fryer. There must be some interesting way of re- One thing I'm going to really criticize the food industry, and I do rant to our clients about this all the time, okay, is when microwaves were only in 30% of homes in my childhood, loads and loads of people brought out microwave meals, which was absolutely signified as such. The number of people who've brought out air fryer meals, um, in, in fact, the number of food stuffs which actually have air fryer instructions on the cooking, some M&S products now do, is ludicrous. It shows a complete failure of innovation because you have this. And I would also argue there must be foods that Deliveroo deliver where actually the best way to consume it is to get Deliveroo to deliver it and then bang it in an air fryer for two minutes before you eat it. So this is what Black Bear Burger do. Okay. Hit me with this. I think there must be a way of cooking a pie which is which is air fry for a bit, microwave. So, so we were talking about this and so basically they were getting loads of, um, the the downside of the street food thing is you get the fast feedback. Feedback, but then when you bugger it off to Deliveroo, is you're inherently just because of just everything that can go wrong, traffic, blah, blah, blah, blah, is you get your customer complaints go through the roof. So what happened is their burgers, people are eating their burgers like, "These burgers are absolutely delicious. The burger's great, but the chips are [ __ ]. The chips come soggy." Have the restaurant, they're crispy. And so they, sort of, got again, fast feedback in a box. The instructions, well, they said like, "This is, there's two ways to make our chips as close as that you're going to get them to a restaurant." It goes, "Option one, take them out, put on tray, air fry X." Um, mic, no. So they, sorry, they don't say microwave, they say, "Don't put in the microwave." And they say, and then they say, um, "You know, whack in the oven for thing." And it's just, but, but what they do is they put it on the packaging. It's so clever 'cause like they've already sort of dealt with that objection before it's arisen. And there's a very interesting finding actually from, I think it was Pizza Hut delivery, who found that by far the biggest determinant of customer satisfaction was actually the heat of the food. How hot the pizza was was actually a bigger determinant of satisfaction than how tasty it was. And so, you know, people obviously have some sort of delivery heuristic, which is, you know, you know, or takeaway heuristic, which is, "This is really hot, so it's great." So therefore, you have a huge opportunity, I think, to hugely reduce customer dissatisfaction with delivery. And the air fryer is your friend because unlike an oven, it doesn't take 20 minutes to heat up. Yeah. Um, and actually, it also is very, very good in the sense that it crisps things and heats the outside, whereas a microwave tends to heat things from the inside out because of course, the middle of something is more insulated. The microwave applies energy evenly, but, but the inside is more insulated than the outside. So you tend to make it hot, hot in the middle and soggy on the outside, whereas what you want is the opposite. So I think, yes, what M&S should do, the M&S wings I get a lot, you know, the big sort of, uh, the circular thing of wings. Now, wings, in my opinion, have to be crispy. If they're not crispy, they're, they're [ __ ] rank. But if you were to say, "Put these in the air fryer," get that. Because I, some whack them in the oven and they're just not. You don't like the air fryer. Need to be called or something like that. They shouldn't have called it the air fryer because it's nothing to do with frying. But, um, it's worth noting, of course, they were massive in Asia where frying is cooking, okay? I mean, a lot of Asian households wouldn't have an oven in the sense that we do. Yeah, we have rather ridiculous ovens because they're designed for like an enormous turkey, where they're designed for a kind of cooking that we do either once a week or once a year, depending on the household. And consequently, they're environmentally, they use a lot of energy and they take a long time to heat up. The air fryer is actually a bit of a way of saving the planet because it's a much more efficient, uh, energy use. But no, I think that by the way, we must fight this malicious lie that an air fryer is just a small convection oven. Yes, notionally it shares parts in common, but the way it operates by super-circulating air. What would you call it? 'Cause I read, read a thing the other day saying, I thought it was, I don't know where I read it, but it was like, artificial intelligence needs a rebrand because it's scaring everyone. It needs to be called co-intelligence. I don't know whether I agree with that, but I thought it was. There is a phrase that someone's borrowed which is augmented. And people have started using things like augmented intelligence. How would you, what would you rebrand the name of the air? We're a bit late for that, to be honest. I wouldn't, I wouldn't start from scratch. But I was conscious of the fact, and I, I used to say this to air fryer manufacturers, look, when I go into a shop, the air fryers are always placed in the kind of cookery section in the same place as the deep fat fryers, which is a complete mistake. Because the kind of people who would buy an air fryer wouldn't, would probably not want to buy a deep fat fryer and wouldn't be in that section of the supermarket to begin with. The context, again, that was a bad context. Text. Yeah. And the word "frier," effectively, you know, to the kind of bourgeois middle class, suggested a kind of food they didn't eat. It lowers their way. By the way, everybody loves fried food. Who is it who made the brilliant observation? It might have been Nassim Taleb. No, it's Rob Henderson who said that, "Rich people's food looks better than it tastes, and poor people's food tastes better than it looks." Oh, yes. So good.

I want on that. Not so I wanted to ask you about this. So from that "Undoing Project" book, which is brilliant, is I, I sort of picked up from that, it's almost like we have Premier League football. The Middle East have like psychology. It's like, you've got a list of, like, you got Daniel Kahneman, Israel, Amos Tversky, Israel, Nassim Taleb, Lebanon, Gerd Gigerenzer, Lebanon, Yuval Harari, Israel, Bord, Egyptian. Why do you think like this is kind of, we bring this back to food in a sec, why do you think that part of the world, and this is not a [ __ ] political podcast or anything like that, it's a food podcast, but it's just purely curious, like, why do you think they're so obsessed with psychology? And you get the best psychologists, most interesting ideas out of that part of the world. Yeah, I mean, you can add Jesus as well to that, in the sense, I always say that this slightly annoys my wife when I say Jesus was a behavioral scientist. But if you look at things like the parable of the lost sheep, okay, that's actually explaining loss aversion. The, quite a lot of the, quite a lot of

The parables in the New Testament are actually very interesting psychological experiments. For example, the parable of the vineyard, where the people who turn up late to work are paid the same as the people who turned up first thing in the morning, and they perceive it as unfair. Okay, that's actually, in a sense, the product of some Esop. Okay, that's Greece. So, a little bit, a little bit further west, I think was, I think he was in Greece. He was definitely Greek. Um, Esop is a, is a behavioral scientist, pure and simple. Esop, the fables, things like the fox and the grapes, sour grapes, um, the boy who cried wolf. Oh boy, all of those little stories which date back to, it's like the seventh or sixth Century BC. Yeah. Um, and they're all fantastic insights into, uh, you know, human emotional response to real-world situations.

Are some of those lessons from those fables? So, I mean, the fox and the grapes is an example where what happens in The Fox and the grapes? So the fox can't reach the grapes and decides, walks away, deciding they're kind of sour. And that's where it comes from, sour grapes. I can't have it, so I pretend I don't want it. Okay, that's where the phrase. There's a concomitant phrase called sweet lemons, which is bad things that happen to us inevitably that we decide, you know, like my three years I spent in Lenworth Penitentiary were really formative. Okay. So we're forced to go through, we're forced to go through an experience we don't want, and we reframe it in our memory as something that, that had positive effects. Yeah. Okay. Or we, we can't have something we want, so we decide effectively that we didn't want it all along. That's the, that's the sour grapes thing. Well, those grapes, I mean, they were probably horrible anyway. Okay. Now, that would be an example of the human brain practicing regret minimization. In other words, um, I mean, there's an interesting thing in regret minimization in consumer psychology, which is a great phrase. Was someone working for Littlewoods years ago who told me this, and I suddenly realized she was absolutely right. She said, you never regret your extravagances. And part of the reason for that is, if you've spent a lot of money on something, okay, uh, it is more important for you, for your own mental well-being, to believe that it was money well spent. And so we tend to, we tend to enjoy performances of, you know, more, uh, when we've paid quite a lot for the ticket. Okay. It's very hard to go away from a Taylor Swift concert going, well, that was [ __ ] wasn't it? Okay. I did that all the time. I just done that in Ibiza. Spent way too much money. Then I was just like, you only live once. You go to those funny clubs where everybody goes, woo. And I, I don't understand that. I'm see you in a, in a rave. No sense to me whatsoever. Absolutely zero. Did you go raving in Ibiza? No, I went and there was annoying background noise. I remember that. You simply opened. I was trying to sit on the. Whereabouts did you stay? I was staying in the Ibiza Grand Hotel for a, a marketing conference, and there was a lot of noisy activity going on. Is that in, uh, Playa d'en Bossa? No, that's in Ibiza, the main town, not, not the old town, but it's just down by the marina. Effect. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. The Grand Palladium, I think that was two down for the first few days. I stayed in Portinatx, which is right at the other end of the island, and it was absolutely lovely. Yeah. Um, that was fantastic. I was just in an Airbnb there with my wife, and we had a fantastic time. And then we went into town, which was very, very interesting. And, um, what was interesting about it anthropologically, it was kind of interesting because to me, it's very, very weird. I mean, I, I don't like, you know, I don't, to be honest, I'm slightly, um, I'm slightly claustrophobic. So the idea of going into. And also, I'm too right-wing to take e, um, you know, this idea of just loving everybody indiscriminately strikes me as just, you know, it's a step too far. You know, I, I want a drug where you sit in the corner making snarky comments about the people on the next table. I don't want a drug where you're suffused with indiscriminate love for your fellow. Love to see you in the DC 10 smoking area. Deserving human nature. Um, but, but no, I mean, uh, the whole, the whole thing about you never regret your extravagance is Richard Thaler, the behavioral economist, who is a pupil of Daniel Kahneman's, makes the point that if you buy a new pair of shoes and they kind of hurt when you first wear them, the degree to which you persevere with the pain is proportionate to the amount of money you've spent on the shoes. Yeah. You, what I mean? Running shoes. I spent these spent 300 quid on this pair of running shoes. Oh, I am delighted to announce that the most banging kebab on planet Earth has just joined Uber Eats. Babab boom. It's banging. It's literally Vavoom for your taste buds. Um, I smashed the sweet potato hummus on the rig. The chicken kebabs are insane. Um, I go to the one in Battersea a lot. Loads of my mates go. I smash it all the time. And they've also got one out east, um, in Stratford. And look, don't say I don't treat you. If you use the code BOOMDAN40, you're going to get 40% off when you spend £20 or more. So yeah, please do that if you want some banging kebabs. And if you're a restaurant, um, who's looking for an amazing delivery partner, then hit me up. Um, our partnership with Uber Eats, we can do some sick things behind the scenes. So please reach out. Thank you so much. Spent these spent 300 quid on this pair of running shoes. Cuz I'm the sort of person who needs to buy something really expensive to then get into it. Yeah. No, no, that's that's actually expensive kit as a commitment device, isn't it? Crazy. Yeah. Then might then I have to buy more kit. It's kind of a downward spiral. But I was like, this is [ __ ] and so I ended up buying more and more blister plasters. Yes. But then I was like, this is crazy. And these shoes were the promised me that I was going to sort of run, you know, like run on water. And it was, but, but I, I kept persevered, persevered, persevered. Eventually I [ __ ] them off. But actually, I think that's one of the. I'd love to know the sort of the psychology of this. Is if you ever go to a running shop, to a running shop where they put you on the treadmill? I think it's the biggest load of [ __ ] in the world. They basically put you on a treadmill, have a camera, and they watch the way your feet go like this. And then they basically come back with this [ __ ] magical report. As as if they're sort of there is something weird about running in symmetry. Cuz I know that evolutionary biologists, people like Robert Trivers, have done a lot of work, which is that very successful Jamaican sprinters have extraordinarily high bodily symmetry. So at the very top level, it probably does make some difference. Yeah. In terms of how you do those things. But if it's a couch to 5K punter, then it's like, it's kind of. But anyway, they put me on this machine. Yeah. And you know, they like, kind of, I'd done all the commitment sort of I'd to it. And then they like, you know, so any I kept. But I'd spent so much money on the shoes that I kept running in them to the point where my, my whole, my, my heels were just kind of bleeding. Um, yeah. So, so, so we're saying talking about Ibiza and, uh, you said the old town was? Oh, no, no, it's a wonderful place. Uh, in that, you know, the, I found the, the food, by the way, I mean, Spain is kind of overtaking Italy as a foodie destination. I mean, it's really, really interesting. Yeah. Um, partly, I think, because the one thing I will dis. I think paella is just a failed biryani. So I'm not, I'm not going to forgive them on that. I, I regard that as entirely overrated. But the, in, the extent to which they're innovating in Spanish food, um, is absolutely fascinating. Um, and, um, uh, you know, it's a wonderful place to go to for that reason. Um, I was also surprised. Most bizarre thing, but there was a whole street in Madrid, um, with, um, full of Indian restaurants. I can't remember what it's called, the AED or something or other. They're literally like 25 Indian restaurants all in the same street. And we went and actually had an extremely good. Same thing happened to me in Lisbon. One of the best curries of my life in Lisbon. No, you know, where did that come from? Yeah. Now, you admittedly, if you're in Spain, I don't know if this is true in Lisbon, but you've got to go. They spot the fact that you're a Brit, and they basically, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, 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my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, my

Hog and get the absolute sandwich I want. Yes, so, in other words, I mean, if you think about it, the whole concept of sides, okay? Uh, okay, is very similar to that. Which is, um, okay, you could argue that sides just give people more choice. Yes, that's true. But there is the argument that I've got this main thing now, having, having committed and mentally written off the cost of X, I might as well spend a bit extra to make X even better. That's so time.

The classic example would be buying a car, okay? You can't aftermarket market fit something like a glass roof, a glass sunroof, or heated steering wheel, or whatever. So when you're buying a car, you think, well, I'm spending a five-figure sum already, I might as well spend another three or four thousand on extras to make this as good as it possibly can be. And because, after all, I'll never have another chance again for four years. And car makers will make inordinately more margin on optional extras than they, they will on the base model car. Yeah.

So, so what you're, other, other examples, once you're in that, in that sunk, once you're sort of that sunk cost thing, or in for, in for a pound, do you think that's basically your, your sort of the system one's activated there? You're just sort of thinking, [ __ ] it, like, I'm already, I may as well get the roof, I may as well get the extra treat. So, or so, so, I mean, a classic example would be if you turn up at a hotel, yeah, and they say, um, you can actually, for £50 a night, you can upgrade to a suite. Obviously, it depends how long you're staying there to a degree, but you are more likely to go, yeah, [ __ ] it, okay, than you are to buy the suite when at the same time as you're paying for the basic room. And the argument for that is that you've already mentally written off the cost of the room, 'cause you've paid that in advance. Okay, so I'm in for 200 quid for my three nights' stay, or whatever it might be, or two nights' stay. I'm in for that amount of money, and now I can make this experience amazing for just a bit more. And undoubtedly, that is a recurring pattern with marketing, pretty much everywhere, okay?

I mean, uh, once someone's, it's, it's sometimes called in salesmanship the foot in the door thing. If you can get someone to agree to buy something, then either immediately or subsequently, getting them to upgrade to a better version of that thing is often easier than selling the better version of that thing from the off. So, okay, a brand that mastered that fantastically, and which has given them a, you know, a large shareholding by Warren Buffett and an extraordinary level of success, is American Express. Where there were a lot of people who probably wouldn't get an American Express Gold Card off the bat. But if you sold them the Green Card, and then three years later, said, for only another X a year, okay? Mhm. Their attention is focused on the increment, not on the overall cost. What, what are, okay, so your, your attention when it's, do I want to add the chicken? Do I want to add the so and so? Is focused on the incremental cost, not the headline amount. So, okay, with you, what are other ways to sell ideas, do you think?

One way is slowly, uh, which is, we have to accept the fact, and I think business has this fundamental mistake of tending to think that the returns from innovation are kind of linear. And actually, if you look at significant innovations, what you will see is a kind of sigmoid curve of adoption. Where things are, I mean, sushi, I'm old enough to remember when sushi was a pretty niche food. The idea of selling sushi in supermarkets has now happens, okay, would have seemed completely outlandish in 1989 or 1990. You went, some people liked it, they went to specialist sushi restaurants, they were taken by someone who liked sushi. But the journey that that particular food has had is that sigmoid curve, where it's very, very slow and, and grows kind of seemingly linearly, and then it hits a, a tipping point where adoption accelerates, and then it hits a kind of ceiling. Which, depending on what the, maybe with a mobile phone, it was nearly 100% the ceiling of adoption. Well, you might argue in some countries, it's actually 105% because people have more than one phone, okay? But there's also a ceiling beyond which there's no possible future penetration, um, or at least the penetration beyond that point is going to be kind of incremental again. It's not going to be exponential. And so it's a very dangerous mistake to start with an idea and assume that because it's not instantly popular, that it has no future. By the way, I mean, even the adoption of the iPhone was quite slow to begin with. Mhm. Okay. If you actually look at volume sales, you know, even products which we tend to look back on and assume were these kind of epiphany products, where no, the iPhones didn't exist then, they invented the iPhone and everybody bought an iPhone. Trust me, it was not like that.

I spent a large part of my working life of the 19, late '90s, early 2000s, persuading people, this is, uh, under the aegis of BT, persuading people to have internet access at home. Now, okay, to you, me, everybody in the room, that's, that now seems absurd. It seems absurd that you would have to persuade people to buy a mobile phone. I mean, you may have to persuade people to buy one kind of mobile phone rather than another kind of mobile phone, but 97% of people, you know, in that category, in some shape or form. There was a period from, well, I mean, if you go all the way back, there were mobile phones in the 1970s, but they were kind of incredibly niche and insanely expensive. There was a period from the late 1980s, maybe the middle 1980s, um, late '80s to probably the early 2000s, where you actually saw mobile phone pen, maybe a bit later than mobile phone penetration effectively went through the population in that sigmoid curve. And you'll probably see that with the, the adoption of things like solar panels, for example, um, and electric cars, uh, I suspect will also follow that pattern. Um, I think the projections for electric car sales were wrong, probably because they, they used an extrapolation rather than the understanding that this is not a straight line.

And then, by the way, the reason for that is, as I said, um, if, if you accept that the two forces acting on human behavior, the two default modes are, um, uh, habit. I'll do what I did last time. And I think most people who've moved to an electric car will continue to buy electric cars. In fact, the percentage of people who actually revert is way below 10%. Once you've gone electric, you know, you never go back. Okay? Now, the second thing that drives people is social proof, which is they're highly influenced and reassured, if you like, by the behavior of other people around them. There is, I would argue, a third very strong human default behavior, which not among a certain innovative and experimental part of the population who are always trying to something new. Like me, I'm a sucker. I read Stuff magazine. I'm 58 years old. I've just bought one of those Samsung Freestyle projectors and I'm pissing around with like projecting stuff on the ceiling. You know, I'm, I'm basically a bit of a [ __ ] in that I'll try, I'll try anything that has novelty value. You, okay? You may be the same. I don't know. Okay? But other than those people, um, for whom what you might call having the latest thing forms a significant part of their identity, most people also have a very strong mental thing, which is to construct or reverse engineer a justification for why the old way they did things, and which they're currently using, is still right, and why the new way is stupid. And so you had massive hostility to mobile phones in the early days, massive hostility, weirdly, to air fryers, slightly less in that case, massive hostility to electric cars, which you see now among petrol car drivers. And that's the kind of thing which is, it's right because I do it, not, I do it because it's right. So people have an immense mental capacity for self-serving post-rationalization. Now, uh, in the case of electric cars, there's this weird hostility to the whole thing. Okay?

Now, by the way, I think that that people are right to some degree to be hostile to overeager government legislation mandating electrification, because I think this is a process that should take place at an organic, natural pace. I also think there are people who should probably never buy an electric car. Okay? There are use cases. People who drive a very small distance, you know, you know, let's say a 78-year-old pensioner who drives to the shops twice a week. Okay? It's a waste of a good battery to electrify those people. Okay? Even if they're buying a car from new, you should let them buy a petrol car, 'cause the contribution they're making to global warming is nugatory. And the, you know, so the benefits of having a battery sitting outside their house, maybe slightly different if they can detach the battery to the grid and use it as a storage form. But the, it's a waste of a battery giving it to someone who drives very, very small mileage. Okay? Um, and so I think the, I think opposition to the govern, but there's this kind of weird hostility to electric cars, which manifests itself in people being convinced that everybody with an electric car ends up stranded. Um, and, you know, I mean, literally, I can remember people going, mobile phones are ridiculous, why would I want to make a telephone call while I'm on the street? Okay? I mean, you know, uh, there are people who didn't want the internet at home. Quite often, we had to use an argument when we were selling it for BT that, um, uh, it will help your kids with their schoolwork. So we kind of, slightly, one very potent argument for people who were identified as being families was, you could kind of guilt them into it slightly, because their children would be at a disadvantage, conceivably, if they didn't have access to the same resources. That's really clever. That's a real clever sort of nuanced. So I sort of get the social proof, the anchoring, those are kind of obvious ones. What are some of these, yeah, kind of almost like magic tricks? It's like leaning into, okay, well, you don't want your kids to fall behind, 'cause that will make you a bad parent. That's a great, great. I mean, it's now, it's ridiculous that you need to use that argument, because people would just assume that a house without internet access is basically uninhabitable.

Alex Hosi has two great things, which is "Pain is the pitch," which I love. He's, he's brilliant. Yeah. Pain is the pitch, and then just reduce all the risks. So I was speaking to, actually, I don't know if you've met Luke, who's Chris Williamson's, um, business partner, New Tonic. Lovely guy. Had, I'm trying to do a festival next year called The Hungry Hooter. I was, how the [ __ ] am I going to sell Who to Rooney? It's basically like a, um, like loads of different food and drinks, speakers, founders, and stuff. I was like, how the [ __ ] do I sell the ticket? So he was like, well, go into the, he told me about Hosi. He was like, go into the pain. What problem do you solve? And then just reduce the risk. So he's like, if you don't like this festival or this day, I will just give you your money back from my personal account. And I've already gone around to a few people who said that David Ogilvy just gone, and the tickets are just like, David Ogilvy died slightly annoyed that he, he always wanted American Express to make the offer, which is because it was a card with a fee, and still is, which is slightly unusual. He always wanted to make the offer, "Try the American Express card for a year, and if you're not happy after a year, we'll give you double your money back." Ooh. Now, double your money is a real skin in the game proof of confidence. Yeah. Okay. What was interesting about that is people said, well, people could rip us off. And David said, my, let's test this, because two things. My guess is that only a very small percentage of people will actually deliberately get a card so that they can make, what would mean sort of 45s in profit in a year's time, okay? Because you've got to try it for a year first, and they've got to have 45s to begin with. Secondly, yes, some people will do that. You don't want those people as customers in the first place. So it's actually serving a very good purpose of getting rid of [ __ ] okay, from your customer base.

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Click the link in the show notes to book your consultancy session and thank me later. David, because what I found interesting about David is he sold Niche. Maybe we can explore this with you. There is extraordinary wisdom. This is partly what my next book is about. There was a whole generation of admen of the kind of David Ogilvy, Pereira, Leo Burnett, um, David Ogilvy, um, Bill Bernbach, yeah. So with, with, and there was extraordinary wisdom and knowledge embedded in that period of advertising. The problem I've got with the advertising industry is it currently has a business model that sells insights one brand at a time, one client at a time. And so it sells insights like bloody Fabergé eggs. Here is an insight which you can have, and it's just for you, and it's really expensive, and you can just have one. And my argument is, with say, the food industry, there are tons of insights, and I want to sell them like Coca-Cola. I don't want to sell them like Fabergé eggs. I want to go, look, if you, if you run a cafe or a bar or a restaurant, exactly your insight about bring the goddamn card machine when you bring the bill, right? What other, uh, for restaurants? Or one of them would be, uh, put tables and chairs outside the, outside, even if it's raining, because it says from 300 yards away, there's a cafe over there, okay? And it's open. Because if it wasn't open, they would have put their tables and chairs inside and locked them away, okay? So it's a brilliant, it's like a massive neon open sign. Another thing would be, um, which always interests me, um, if you look like a cafe, this is just an interesting thought, okay? Um, what's the difference between a cafe and a restaurant? And my theory is this, that in a restaurant, you're obliged to have at least a one-course, possibly two-course meal. In other words, you cannot just have a coffee and a slice of cake. Now, in a cafe, you can upgrade to a, you know, fairly large calorific meal, but you're not under an obligation. So if you can do a dhom and make your restaurant look a bit like a cafe, people will come. They'll come in and they'll buy one thing, and then they'll decide to buy more. That's why car, this is, by the way, it's very, when you're in a foreign country and you can't read the vibes, let's say you're in somewhere like Milan, you can't tell what's a cafe and what's a restaurant. And we, we had this when we're in Madrid, where my wife and I kept [ __ ] up because there were a load of tables and chairs outside the place, and we sit down and go, can we have a coffee? And they go, are you not having a meal? You know, you filth, you know, [ __ ] off, okay? Now, um, it's, you know, one of the reasons why eating out in a foreign country is actually weirdly anxious is you're not entirely clear what the rules are. And now, I mean, I'll give you another example. It is amazing how many establishments, while open, are so badly lit, particularly in the British winter, that they look as if they're closed. The dying words of William Sainsbury, the founder of Sainsbury's, I mean, literally the dying words before he died were, "Make sure the stores remain well lit." So, so there's a lighting question going into a murky space. Okay? Then there are really interesting questions like the meaning of things like tablecloths, which were mandatory for dining out in my childhood, okay? And now may well be off-putting. You know, we've been so wagmi-fied that if we see tablecloths, we go, it's too fancy, I don't want to go through all that pava. I'll go to a restaurant which doesn't have tablecloths, you know? So things take on completely different meanings. Um, but, but what I'm saying is that I think there are universally applicable insights, you know, which you can learn far better than from me, from Alex Hosi, or from Will Gaddara. You know, I'm very happy because they're very, very interesting. Was it "Pain is the pitch"? "Pain is the pitch" and "reduce the risks"? Were those the two things? 'Cause he featured you in his book actually, which is, which is a brilliant book. But on the lighting and the all-day thing, have you ever been to the restaurant Caravan? No, Caravan Coffee. So they've been on my podcast. So where are they? Uh, they've got, they, yeah, there, oh, there one of the, if you, if you actually kept my diary clear, I could actually find these bloody places. Right, you know, I could actually have time to go out and explore. Sorry. Yeah, go on. Um, but the, the, um, yes, what they, so, okay, in my diary next week, go to Caravan. Right, okay, fine. Sorry, we'll carry on. Uh, so what Laura did was she, um, she's the founder. Their anti-pan New Zealanders, bet way wanky way have seen New Zealanders, is they, they do kiwi, of course. I might be related. I'm not sure. He's called Towns End, and he's a New Zealand coffee entrepreneur who's the guy who arguably invented the flat white. Yes. So you're related to the guy? Well, most, a lot of Towns Ends in New Zealand are related to me because I had a great uncle or great-great-uncle who left a large amount of money to something like eight nephews, about seven of whom basically as farmers took the money and hoofed it to New Zealand. So if you're, if you're a kiwi called Towns End, there's a fairly high, um, likelihood that you're actually a relative of mine. So I've always wanted to establish a relationship with this guy who, because kiwi coffee, of course, is is absolutely fascinating, amazing. But what she, what she did is, so that they really pioneered the all-day dining. So you go there for breakfast in the morning, okay? That's a really, okay, a really, really interesting thing which Dum discovered is, they, how do you crack the lunch at an Indian? You get in for breakfast, you open for breakfast. But what she does is, which is wild, which again, it's kind of a special effect, and it goes back to my street food is comedy, restaurants and mov. See, I think one of the things I think you can make a mistake, you can make a massive mistake doing this. So let me share this with the world's coffee shops and cafes. I am sure that if you open, uh, for the last half hour a Costa is open, they don't do that much business. And it'll be very easy for them to assume, okay, um, the reason we're not doing much business is there isn't much demand for coffee between 6:00 and 6:30. Therefore, there is absolutely no point in us opening later. Now, that's dependent on the assumption that falling demand is due to time of day, not, um, nearest to closing. And my hunch is, okay, right, okay, okay, this is my theory. This is my theory, okay? And I think it's important for the world's cafes and coffee chains to realize this. People don't like having a coffee in a place that's closing, right? Because you feel under time pressure. This is why all-day dining is so interesting, okay? The time pressure is off-putting. The staff, I'm going to really, God, they're gonna hate me. They're gonna piss in my coffee for revealing this, okay? I'm, oh [ __ ] every time I now stop at an A1, someone's going to gob in it. Oh God, okay? But I'm going to reveal it anyway, okay? The staff don't want customers to come in in the last 20 minutes of the day. And this is known in the trade as getting the mop out. All you have to do is provide a very small clue that your, that your closure is imminent, and you don't attract any new customers. Now, partly that may be unintentional, or it may be intentional on the part of the staff, because they want to clean the muck off the, you know, the, the, the cappuccino machine, the frother, and they want to mop down the toilets, they want to wipe down the tables so they can piss off as soon as the coffee shop closes. And that may be the fault of coffee shops for not paying overtime. I don't know the economics well enough, right? So what people do, either unintentionally or intentionally, is they do this thing called getting the mop out. All you have to do is take one chair and put it upside down on top of a table, and no one else will come into your coffee shop because they don't want to be the last customer of the day, and they don't want to consume anything under time pressure, and they don't want to look unwelcome, and they don't want to come in and be told, no, I'm sorry, we're closed. Okay? Now, Woolworths used to be very clever. They used to actually open for five minutes after their official closing time. So they never have this problem of people turning up and being told, sorry, we're closed. And they, so they used, they used to open, Woolworths would say, we close at 5:30, and they actually close at 5:35. Every single business should do this. Because if you allow someone into a shop and then give them second-rate service because you're basically thinking about how you get home rather than how you sell someone a coffee, you've created a pissed-off customer. Now, what is happening, okay, is in the half hour before a coffee shop closes, they are basically deliberately or accidentally or inadvertently manifesting signs that new customers are not welcome. And it could be a mop, getting the mop out, it could be putting a single chair on upside down on top of a table, or taking two chairs and putting one upside down on top of the other. Effectively, that is a massive turn-off to any prospective customers. So the fall-off in sales between 5:30 and 6:00 may be nothing to do with the fact that nobody wants coffee between 5:30 and 6:00. You may actually have a really, you know, fantastic market for your coffee all the way until 7:30. What you won't have is a market for your coffee in the half hour before you close, if you're radiating signs of closing. My wife gets very angry with me because weirdly, although I'm a very placid guy, very occasionally I completely lose it. Okay. What makes you lose it? Um, and so I was outside, I won't, I won't name them, I don't want the staff to get into trouble, but, um, half an hour before a Starbucks closed at a major, um, UK railway station, I had luggage because we'd just come back on the Eurostar. I obviously didn't want to take huge suitcases into Starbucks. So I sat down at a table outside the Starbucks where my luggage wouldn't get in the way of anybody else, and sent my wife and daughter in to get coffee. And while I was sitting there, 25 minutes before the restaurant closed, someone made me move because they were clearing the tables away. Mhm. Right. Not going to say which station, I don't want anybody to get a bollocking, okay? But I absolutely lost it because I think, you know, if it, you know, that is an abominable thing to do. I, I was trying to do the good thing by not clogging up your coffee shop with my enormous wheelie Louis Vuitton steamer trunk. I can't imagine. Okay. No, no. Okay. I, I don't want to clog up your cafe. I'm sitting outside. You've put the tables and chairs outside. Clearing them away early and making a customer move is just [ __ ]. Those tables remain there until you close. Then you, then you clear them away. Okay? You don't close them away 25 minutes early. Now, I don't know, and I'd like to know, is this because, um, coffee shops pay inadequate overtime? Okay? And therefore everybody feels that effectively they're on the clock for the last half hour and they've got to get as much cleaning done in the last half hour of the day as they possibly can? What I'm saying is that someone looking at the sales data from a coffee shop might get completely the wrong impression, 'cause they think it's the time of day that's diminishing demand for coffee, whereas it's actually the behavior of the restaurant itself as it nears closing time. And equally, opening early, right, means that if you open at 10:00 rather than 11:00, and only five people come in between 10:00 and 11:00, but the fact that there are five people sitting there at 11:00 means that 15 people come in at 11:00 rather than 7:00. It may pay you to open early, even though looked at in isolation, the economics of, of that first hour may not make sense. And I would call that "disomic," which is their astonishingly ingenious idea of solving the problem of Indian food at lunchtime by opening for breakfast. It's genius.

This is a really [ __ ] random question, but what would be your death row meal, do you think? I've said that before, um, and it was, I've been on another podcast where they actually cook your death row meal for you. That's hilarious. What was it? Uh, uh, there's a Pakistani restaurant in, um, and it is Pakistani, yeah, uh, in, um, Mayfair, in Curzon Street called Salo, and they do something, it's not always on the menu, so ring and check, which is called Halim. Now, I have a bit of, I, I have a bit of a rather caveat to shume about this, because he says they've tried Halim in Dasum and nobody likes it. And I keep arguing, you have to persevere. It's a very strange thing where lamb is soaked overnight with grain to form a kind of meat porridge. [ __ ] out, okay? You then place it on top of rice, and then brilliantly, there are a lot of little side dishes, so you can pimp your Halim, where they're bits of ginger, bits of chili. I'm sorry, my wife's ringing. Hi, can I call back a bit later? Is everything okay? Right, ho. Okay, bye-bye. Bye-bye. Um, sorry about this. Hi, I just got this new Samsung Freestyle projector. I thought, okay, to compliment this, I'll go and order one of those folding projector screens so I can put it up. And it's a bit like, you know, Spinal Tap, where they get the dimensions all wrong. Buying anything rectangular online is absolutely fatal, right? Because, you know, if you buy a TV, you have no idea really how big something is, because you're just comparing identical black rectangles with the size. So I've ended up with this thing, this bloody projector screen, which looks like something David Brent would kind of use. It's absolutely [ __ ] enormous. And so my wife is basically desperately, How big is it? Well, I thought, I thought it was just this modest little thing that you could put on the bottom of the bed. It turns out that thing's [ __ ]. Why do you want a projector so much? Was that the sort of the, okay, it's like an air fryer, okay? You don't know until you've got one, okay? There are a lot of things. Yeah, yeah. You know, Ben, I've talked to the Samsung marketing director, saying, why on earth don't you market this? So, no, no, I'm not saying you shouldn't have a TV, right? I'll come back to Halim in a moment. But rather than having a fourth TV, buying a projector. Now, the problem with projectors was, there were very cheap ones which were kind of rubbish, and then they were kind of professional laser projectors which are three grand and require you to connect them to a soundbar, a massive sound system, God knows what. This Samsung projector is an all-in-one thing, which basically gives you the full, the full app interface, uh, with Netflix, with, um, Amazon Prime, uh, with YouTube, okay? You log in on the projector, it's got its own speaker, okay? So you can even, you could even run it in the garden at night. You could actually have films out, out in the garden. In the, where would you, where would you plug it? You could, but if you've got a white wall, or or like me, you could buy a ludicrously oversized projection screen, of course. It's like Spinal Tap in reverse. You know, the thing in Spinal Tap, where they have the model of Stonehenge, which is sort of, Spinal Tap, oh, it's film, it's a parody of the kind of rock music scene. It's, what the hell's name, Christopher, it's a fantastic comedy film. It's where the phrase "it goes up to 11" comes from. You may have heard that. Never. Okay, all your listeners, your podcast should watch it because it's brilliant. Now, what happens is they, they want for their kind of, you know, massive rock, uh, stage, they want a huge model of, of Stonehenge, and they muddle up the sign for feet with a sign for inches. So they end up getting sent this model that's about, about 18 inches high, okay? Okay. Anyway, sorry. But see, you've got that going on at home, right? Now, the versatility is, okay, now, okay, what's the, the great thing with a projector, with this glorious, I'm not paid to do this, but Benjamin's a friend of mine, and he's the marketing director of Samsung Europe. So the glorious free Samsung Freestyle second generation projector is, if you think about it, okay, assuming you have some white walls in your house, which you probably do. Wallpaper is not really a thing, I imagine, in your home. I maybe wrong. It maybe, you know, may look like Carrie Johnson's house for all I know. But, okay, the great thing about a projector is, you've now got a port, completely portable TV. It's about twice the diameter of this thing and about as high, which can be as big as small as you like, right? And you can plug it in anywhere there's a Wi-Fi connection on a plug, or or indeed, you can, you can actually buy an optional additional charger, which Benjamin can send me now for free, because no, okay, that's your podcast plug. That's my podcast plug. Now, what, what if you think about it, there's always that slight tension in the home between partners in that one of you wants a bigger TV than the other. The great thing with this, with this projector TV is, it takes up the space of a shoebox when you store it. Okay? However, if you want it to be a 100-inch TV, you poke it a long way from the wall. And if you're in the kitchen and you just want to make recipes, you've literally got a 30-inch TV or 20-inch TV just projecting against the wall. And then if you, if you want to put it away, you've got no TV at all, 'cause it just goes into a cupboard. So you don't have a massive black rectangle on the wall all the time. Also, you can weirdly project it. Benjamin, by email, said it's a great thing. You can project it onto a table from the ceiling if you buy the ceiling mount, or when you're in bed, you can project it on the ceiling and just lie back in bed and watch films above your head. Now, in the 1970s, lazy, in the 1970s, people who wanted to improve their sex life used to put a mirror on the ceiling above their double bed. Now, they did that because they didn't have the technology to do something far more erotic, which is to have sex while watching a two-hour YouTube documentary about steam traction engines. You know, which I imagine is about, I haven't tried this, I hope to, but I imagine that's about as good as it gets. Feeding your fantasies here. This is, this is the slight, this is, this is a slight problem with, there is that weird thing, isn't there, slightly asurgical of Alexandria of the 21st century. I think it's the Great Pyramid of the 21st century. It's the greatest human achievement, apart from, of course, the Samsung Galaxy second generation projector, which is the perfect way in which to consume it. There's a channel for you, actually, Benjamin, which they go into how, how, uh, films are made. I'll send you it. Oh, it's sensational. Is that was a [ __ ] show? Is it the making? There's a wonderful one called "The Making of X." Was a [ __ ] show? Yeah. Goes into, so they do Francis Ford Coppola's Godfather and Apocalypse Now, because, you know, Apocalypse Now was a [ __ ] show, like Charlie Sheen did so much coke and [ __ ] that he'd end up having a heart attack. Um, they had all the, everything that was going wrong with the, um, and actually the helicopters kept being withdrawn because the government needed to fight some border skirmish, so they couldn't rely on the supply of various. It was filmed in the Philippines, and they wanted to be filmed in Australia. But anyway, it's really, it's a great, um, it really goes into Francis Ford Coppola's like sort of creativity and how he uses the catastrophe to, because the film started here, and then it ended up being all this weird sort of dystopian film where they brought in, you know, Marlon Brando was, oh, no, no, those things where you zoom in, yeah, typically with a specialist commentator, and you zoom in incredibly tight. So, okay, the most overdocumented, um, sort of 24 hours of the 20th century, probably the Kennedy assassination. And there's a YouTube documentary called "Ask a Mortician," which is hosted by someone who works in the funeral business. And the title of this particular episode is "Why Did JFK Not Have an Open Casket?" And that sounds like a very, very niche question, but she goes in absolutely tight and then explodes it, you know, effectively. You know, and it turns into, well, because it's entirely the take on the Kennedy assassination from a mortician, a funeral director's perspective. And the details are, a large part of it is that you, which coffin they bought, the fact that the, uh, the Secret Service commandeered the hearse and were then incapable of operating the latch mechanism to actually slide the coffin out of the hearse to load it onto Air Force One, with a consequence that you had the dead body of JFK in a coffin in the back of a hearse with a load of guys with crowbars basically trying to lever it out of this car. The fact that it took the funeral home, God knows how long, to be paid for the casket. The fact that the casket they chose, they felt had to be the most expensive one, which meant it was ludicrously heavy. The fact that, um, that the whole of America was kind of in the wake of a Nancy Mitford book, I think, or Jessica Mitford, Jessica Mitford book called "The American Way of Death," which was kind of an exposé of the US funeral industry, which therefore meant that everybody was highly suspicious of the, the whole funeral industry. D, D, D, but, okay, it's impossible to encapsulate without her expertise and her brilliance, okay? But that business of, of actually doing the opposite what television does, which is kind of to start broad, okay, of starting on something incredibly narrow and niche, and then effectively kind of zooming out, uh, is utterly, utterly fascinating. I mean, it's kind of life is kind of fractal, okay? You know, in other words, there's complexity at scale, but there's also the same kind of level of complexity when you, it's Mandelbrot set, when you burrow into the details. And so YouTube, I mean, the thing about YouTube is, I think two things happened which we didn't notice. Jimmy Carr always said that the weird thing that happened is YouTube became the biggest TV station in the world, and nobody noticed. Yeah. I will also plug YouTube Premium, which is a very good use of £19.95 a month. I shouldn't be doing that because it's ad-free, and I work in advertising, so I'm taking the bread out of my, um, colleagues' mouths. Nonetheless, if you're a heavy YouTube user, okay, and you will be, if you get YouTube Premium, it's worth it. Now, the, a few things. One, most of its broadcast quality. I, I grew up in the era when we went on YouTube and it was wobbly handheld grainy pictures for the most part. So first of all, the quality of filmmaking and just general cinematic grammar has improved immensely. Secondly, it has now become so extensive as a repository of film. I can't remember what the figure is, but you need to live for something like 7,000 years to watch all of it, and you'd still never catch up because more is being added all the time. That it's now become Wikipedia with video, okay? Now, it was browsable, but now it's searchable. So literally, if you have an obscure boiler and the flue freezes over, there's some weird guy who's made a film about how to unfreeze the flue on a Baxi boiler B749. I mean, that probably is slightly overclaiming it, but in other words, the level of granularity you can go into is absolutely extraordinary. And if, like me, you're tiny bit on the spectrum, of course, uh, the ability to be honest, my my dad was exactly the same, you know, he stopped reading fiction and just read biographies. And I'm guilty of the same failing, actually. But, you know, I love factual television of any kind. Yes. Extraordinary. And so that, I think, is, uh, that I think is really, really interesting. Because what, some of the most interesting biographies you've read? Well, I've, I must get back to Halim, by the way, so you can pimp it. Yeah, because their little bowls typically, I think, is it ground ginger? It's probably chili. Anyway, they're lots of little powders, and you can mix them. You can either mix them into the Halim or sprinkle them unevenly on the top to get a kind of, I think one of the reasons why bubble tea, the behavioral economics of bubble tea, is its variable reinforcement theory in a cup. Which is, we quite reinforce, we quite like things, okay, where it's a bit like the chocolate at the bottom of the Cornetto, which actually I think is there to prevent leakage, but it's like the final little unexpected treat at the, it's an Easter egg at the end. And we seem to like certain foods that are kind of slightly uneven, okay? So I'll go back to the texture. So there was an experiment with pigeons where they basically trained pigeons, so if they pecked a switch, they got a couple of pellets of food, yeah. And the pigeons would basically peck the switch, have a couple of pellets of food, peck it again, have another couple of pellets of food. And after about three pecks, they get a bit sated and a bit bored, and they wander off to do some other pigeon stuff, whatever they do. Other pigeon stuff, [ __ ] on people, or whatever it is, okay? And then there was a weird glitch in the experiment where they kind of ran out of food pellets. And so they made the thing a bit random, where when the pigeons pecked the thing, they couldn't afford to give them two pellets every time. Sometimes the pigeons would get no pellets, sometimes they get one, sometimes they get two. And at that point, the pellets was like a bloody pigeon fruit machine. They became completely addicted to this because the return was no longer constant and predictable. It was uncertain. The pigeons got addicted. The pigeons basically just pecked and pecked and pecked and pecked. And you've basically created pigeon Vegas for these bloody things, and they were just going and pecking and pecking away. And there seems to be some component in variable reinforcement theory which may explain the appeal of bubble tea, which is that it's different. It keeps changing all the way down. You sometimes you get one of these big lumps of, uh, tapioca shooting up. The texture of it. Well, it just, it's just that no two sips. I interviewed Margot Henderson, who's Fergus Henderson's wife, who did obviously St. John, and we were talking, would you believe it was my local? We were actually in St. John Street as an agency, oh, really? Back in the mid-90s. And my God, I was grateful to that place. A couple of things. So she talks about the art of drinking Negroni, and why Negroni is so good. So it's like, you're quite stressed. The first, first sip of Negroni is actually super strong, and punches you, and you get the, the thing of the lemon, or sorry, the orange, orange or the lemon. So that really hits you. And then, as, and then, then you have two of those, and actually, as you get slightly more drunk from the big hits, by the time you get the end of the Negroni, the ice cubes have begun to melt, so it's actually a much softer drink. So what we were saying is, it sort of dances with your mood. Well, I mean, when I drink a gin and tonic, I like to have the tonic bottle so I can vary the strength as I go through. I like to start with something, basically, you start with something which is, you know, a bit of a depth charge, and then you end up with something that's a soft drink. Yeah. Um, and interestingly, that may explain why actually, if you make a really good Bloody Mary, you shouldn't mix it perfectly, conceivably. In other words, the Tabasco should be slightly unevenly distributed. I don't know. What do you think?

Okay, now this is a bit weird, because, you know, you know, one of the things I say, you know, one of the things I say, which is that the opposite of a good idea can be another good idea. Right? The interesting thing with food is there's McDonald's food, where the success is that it's completely predictable. There are no surprises. In other words, there's nothing there to make you uneasy. Okay? And then there's another kind of food, which is, you know, it's never the same twice. And weirdly, depending on whatever mental frame of perception it may be, sometimes we seem to want one, and sometimes we seem to want the other. And you might argue there's a theory about the brain that most of what we perceive is actually a prediction, and we only really turn our senses up into gear when something surprises us. So there, this is a really interesting philosophical question. Don't ask me, ask a guy called, say, Charles Spence at Oxford, who does a huge amount of research into this. So he will do wonderful, wonderful experiments. Anybody in the food industry, get this guy in and pay him a lot of money, because he's fantastic. What does he do? Sorry. He will make a strawberry-flavored sorbet, make it yellow, and put it inside a frozen lemon. So your brain is entirely expecting the thing to be citric and bitter, and instead, it's sweet. And the interplay between expectation and delivery basically creates a new taste that, that doesn't really exist in the natural world. It creates essentially a brain, a brain stimulus around taste. The contrast between what you're expecting and what you get generates something on what you might call a third dimension of taste. Have you heard about Steven Pinker's strawberry cheesecake principle? Hit me. I know. One of my, one, I got [ __ ] obsessed with why illustration works so well with food. Not sometimes, well, obviously, all these products around us as illustration. And in, in lots of these sort of hipster pizza restaurants now, they on their box, they'll use illustration. And I was everywhere I looked, Noble Rot, the wine bar, uses illustration. A bit of that may simply be, it's that.

You're effectively tapping into her assumptions that have been established by other Artisan Brands which use illustration. So, illustration and hand drawing kind of say "handmade" a little bit. I mean, Charlie Bam's genius, I think, was putting the thing in a bamboo thing rather than a plastic pot. Okay, fundamentally, that completely changed our perception of what that food might be and what it might deliver. Okay, and it made us feel that it was kind of handmade because the container didn't say "factory." Yeah, right. And indeed, the packaging didn't say "it's designed not Apple Mac." It suggests it was designed by hand.

But what often happens then is that this then creates a consumer assumption that food that's packaged like that is that kind of food. And people who, therefore, an example would be, you're having guests around. Okay, you'd probably rather serve them hand-illustrated crisps, okay, or crisps that have a kind of artisanal quality, rather than crisps that look like they're produced by a multinational. Yeah. And so it kind of says, now obviously multinationals are now tapping into this because they're not completely blind. And, you know, uh, you have Tesco anomaly to that. CU Sensations with they were Posh crisps from Walkers. Yeah, yeah. And then I suppose crisps got Posh and Posh and Posh. Very funny.

I had a friend who was involved in the naming of Sensations. And, uh, two things happened. There was a huge debate about what the behavioral insights team called itself within government. And somebody, might have been David Halpern, said, actually, this debate is completely irrelevant because whatever we call ourselves, people are going to call us the "nudge unit." And indeed they did. The "nudge unit." Nudge unit because it, it was, it was inspired by Sailor's book, "Nudge," effectively. And so everybody's going to call it the "nudge unit" for short. Yeah. Um, the, uh, the same thing happened with Walker's Sensations where apparently a friend of mine was involved in the discussions around the naming. And someone said, actually, what we call this is kind of irrelevant because everybody's going to call them "Posh Crisps," which is kind of what they did. Yes. Yeah. And I suppose the crisps just get posher and posher and posher. Then it went to Tiptree's, obviously, which Perry did Tiptree's.

The, um, I mean, this is an extraordinary testament to the, uh, brand value and thus economic value created by packaging design. Oh, it's crazy. The way so the way, um, Perry. Okay, you've got Sip Smith over there. You've got Yo Yo Valley. Um, uh, I don't think he designed San Pellegrino. I'm not going to give him credit for that because that's, I think that's been around since before he was born. I think that's just sitting there as a bottle, isn't it? But in terms of the around it, it's really, really interesting. Dorset Cereals. You go around to, is it pronounced Beaver or Belvoir? It's Belvoir, I think it is. I call it Belvoir. Okay. Now, are these actually Scandinavian? I don't. Very mischievous question because they may not be. It's the best story is Goo, right? In terms of the selling of ideas. So, you know, Goo. It's British. It's an East End company, right? Yeah. British out on it or DiSotto, but what, what, yeah.

What Perry did to sell the idea to James, who's the founder, as he goes, he goes, "Right, leave it with me. I'm going to go and find, just do, do a load of research." They had the Goo pudding. And he put the slide up on the, on, on probably that TV there and was like, "Oh my God, James, I found, I found a company in, um, Norway or wherever it is or Sweden that's got this thing called Goo and it's, and it's, look how great that looks. It's if only we could do this." So then James is like, "[Expletive], I wish we'd done that. I wish we'd done that." And then Perry goes, "We have. We have. That's your brand. That's your brand." And that's the genius of selling ideas. Was if he said, you know, so it's such a good way of to sell an idea. You know what I mean? Technically, technically that's lying. But, but nonetheless, as long as you reveal the lie afterwards. Oh, exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly. As long as you reveal afterwards. You see, the second you thought this was a company you wanted to buy it. And yet, which is an emotional response. And yet, if he'd come along and said, "I've got this idea about Goo," the first reaction would be, "Can you show me four more alternatives, please?" Exactly.

Well, so Perry. Now we're creating a business environment where it's impossible, except for entrepreneurs and arguably slightly deranged CEOs, to use an incredibly valuable, um, human skill which we've evolved over millions of years, which is called intuition. And our fear of intuition, in other words, the requirement that all intuition be replaced by data, is basically killing business. And it's why, you know, broadly speaking, which is tragic, okay, everybody who wants to do something interesting and new leaves a large company in order to do it. Yeah.

I want to talk about the, the data and intuition as like, sort of a barbell, all sort of Nas TB. And there's a question I've written, had this written down since we did our first podcast. I've just never got around to asking it because we end up talking about [expletive] chicken coma for two hours. Um, I, I will, I'll give another plug for Salo's Halal Meat. Yeah, we can. And by the way, while I'm doing this, I'm, I'm starting this tradition, right? Where the podcast guest gets to advertise, not in return for payment, but just to recommend things they really like because I think we should. We deserve our place in the sun, right? So what else would you recommend if you're hungry and in Sevenoaks and you want a good Arepa? Go to Sevenoaks' best Venezuelan cafe, which is called Budare. Which is also Sevenoaks' only Venezuelan cafe, I'm surprising. Uh, but it's hard to find. It's in the Shambles. You won't regret it. Also available on Deliveroo. So this is a, for those of you who are gluten-free, Arepa is made from cornbread. Budare is the name of the hot griddle plate on which it's made. Yeah. Okay. So gluten-intolerant or gluten-free people can enjoy an Arepa sandwich, uh, uh, with complete freedom. And, um, it's just a glorious, tiny little cafe tucked around the back of nowhere. The kind of place which absolutely deserves to flourish. And if you're in Westram, nearby Westram, why not go to Busy Bites? Uh, which is possibly Britain's only Jamaican-Italian cafe. Ooh. Now, uh, the way the, um, what's, what's their equivalent of the? He's Italian. Yeah. She's Jamaican. What's their sort of middle ground feed? What's their version of the of the burger? It's absolutely brilliant because if you're going out with people who, you know, who are a bit wussy about spice, they can have something entirely Italian, whereas, um, the Jamaican stuff, you know, ramps up the. They also make very, very good coffee. And they also sell vegetables. So it's a, it's a wonderful little place and it's just adorable. And my argument is, I, I'm, I work in advertising, so I'm normally paid to advertise things. And it's quite nice in my spare time to advertise things that deserve to be advertised, that deserve to be better known. They could almost be like a little market. What I want to ask you is, 10 times 1 is not the same as 1 times 10. No. So, so because that's again, it's been a question on my mind. But maybe let's use that as, mathematically it is. Yeah. Mathematically it's not. But like, but then one person coming to you 10 times is not the same as 10 people coming to you once. Yeah. Okay. The only real measure, I would argue. Now, there are obviously kind of weird exceptions to this in the case of like, you know, those kind of Michelin three-star restaurants which everybody only goes to once. And I always ask that as an interesting reflection of signaling value versus intrinsic value and food. Which is, if you often ask people, what's the best meal they've ever had in their life? Okay, they'll usually cite a really fancy restaurant. And then you ask them the second question, and how often have you eaten there? And almost inevitably, the answer is once. And I always ask the question, well, if it was that good, why didn't you go back? And I always suspect that the signaling value of having been there is a large part of the experience. Okay. So there's no point in going back because the value you get from saying you've been there is actually greater than the value you got from eating there. Consequently, there are also restaurants which people like, indeed Budare in Sevenoaks, Sevenoaks' best Venezuelan cafe, um, which people go back to repeatedly. Okay. And the, I always think that the real measure of a fantastic place has to be repeat purchase. In other words, the true measure of what you might call revealed preference is not the thing that people do once, which may be for bragging rights. It's the thing that people do a hell of a lot. But in, so in terms of the, the 1 time 10 is not the same as 10 times 1, what are the implications for that? Not necessarily. The one reason to have a loyalty program is you can tell the difference between the two. Because there are businesses which look successful in the early phases because everybody gives them a try and leaves disappointed and never comes back. Now, it's possible to operate as a business just on naive customers for a certain length of time, or in the case of New York, just on the case of novelty. But that's not really a sustainable business.

What do you think? What do you think is better, New York or London for food? And what are the differences you've noticed? Because I swear it's more status-seeking in New York. London is obviously better for food because we have better Indian restaurants. Everything else is secondary. But I swear in New York, it's like it's like all my, all Indian restaurants in my book have a Michelin star. Okay. Uh, that the, because I love Indian food so much. Why St. John? Clumsy. St. John. A clever there. I read, I listen to a podcast that, that podcast. I'll send you a link about the mechanics of a Michelin star restaurant and how much money they actually make. And he goes, there's someone actually making a documentary about this. Right. Amazing. Yeah. But what he says is, if you lose a star, that the loss of of a star is so [expletive] detrimental to your business, y, then actually gaining one. It is. There are people who actually want to opt out of the whole system and actually decline to. Well, that's St. John. Hide the kind of, basically hide the fact that they've got a Michelin star. The one in Smithfield Market. And I think that's [expletive] clever because they, they're building a business that's got Michelin star. But so you could go to the Michelin guide and find St. John. But they never, don't say, "Let's shut up about this because I don't want to ruin it for them because I'm very fond of that place." And, you know, but, but that is ingenious. So clever to, because also you're a hostage to fortune. Yeah. And also there's a restaurant, there was a restaurant in, where was Shakespeare born? Wherever that was on. Yes. Yeah. Um, where they lost the star and it just completely decimated their business. Because you basically lose the, lose the status. It also forces you because what makes a Michelin restaurant maybe at odds with what consumers want, particularly as eating out becomes less of a special occasion thing, right? And it forces you to serve the kind of food in the kind of environment which actually, okay. I mean, I, I had a friend who, I can't remember what it was, but he was, he was in Los Angeles and basically doing a whole lot of business and forced to eat at fancy restaurants for sort of five nights in a row. And he said he was craving beans on toast by the end of it. You know, those kind of meals aren't the kind of meals you want to have all that often. I have met really rich people who basically seem to eat in Michelin star restaurants all the time. And I find that deeply weird because it's not a kind of food that you want routinely, nor is it the kind of environment that you want to eat in routinely either. It may be that they do that because when you do that, you bump into other very rich people. Then it's quite valuable. And that was, to some extent, the value of the Concorde, which is it was an economy class flight. It was an economy class flight. You were basically seated like EasyJet, but on a plane full of really rich, influential people. So in business class or in first class, it would be absolute social anathema to break into conversation with your next-door neighbor. But on the Concorde, it was actually discourteous not to do so because you were rubbing shoulders with them. And so part of the value of the Concorde was as a kind of networking device at 55,000 feet. Um, so there may, there may be an element that people go to those restaurants because they bump into their other super-rich friends and then end up doing deals. But it doesn't strike me as a way that a normal person would want to eat because you need to provide, you need to give specialness a degree of rarity and scarcity. And that raises questions like my daughter, uh, is always convinced that Five Guys has overexpanded. She thinks that it's okay to have a few Five Guys in London. It's probably okay to have one in Birmingham, Glasgow, Newcastle. But once you've got a Five Guys in Tunbridge Wells, it's lost a bit of its, uh, [expletive]. There's a Five Guys. I better go while I've got the chance. And therefore become. Now, I, I don't know if she's right or not, but it's an interesting observation. Well, In-N-Out, and of course, private equity often forces these brands to overexpand, some of what made them special to begin with. Well, that's why I love In-N-Out. The fact they just constricted. They they won't expand in Arizona, California. I think it's because they've got their own beef herd, if I'm right. And they won't open anywhere where the beef can't be served fresh. And consequently, I think they've made their way into, I think you can get one in San Antonio, Western Texas, New Mexico, I think. But they won't go to, they won't go to the East Coast. Yeah. Something similar actually with White Tower, uh, which is a very, very. Tower. Okay. Okay. It's basically before there was, as in White's Tower, before there was. Sorry, sorry, I'm talking bollocks. White Castle. Oh, is that Harold and Kumar get the munchies? Yeah. Harold. I don't know why I call it White Tower. I'm getting to see now. Um, White, at White Castle, before there was McDonald's, before there was Burger King, there was White Castle. M. And it's an extraordinary, interesting story. The reason it hasn't expanded that much is because it's family-owned and they don't want to franchise. They have franchised, but they don't want to do it. And they also confine themselves to a pretty strict geographical area. Although apparently the, the, the sliders are actually buyable in shops. What they did. We assume that the burger is kind of like this innate American food item. However, if you read the history of White Castle, at the time they started, one of the reasons Americans are probably fixated with steak is that minced beef or minced meat of any kind had been majorly discredited by a book in about 1916, '17, I think, by Sinclair Lewis, if I've got that right, which was inside, basically an expose of the Chicago meat and meat packing industry, where he revealed that basically whenever you had minced beef, loads of other things, it was a bit like the horse meat scandal, loads of other things were always being mixed in. And so minced beef was kind of discredited. Which may explain partly the American obsession with steak because they had a much more central meat industry than the British did. You know, your butcher would probably mince the beef locally, right? Whereas in America, the whole thing was based around this kind of massive, like cheese and beer, you know, it's Wisconsin or whatever, you know, very, very centralized. And White Castle basically did something very clever. They made the restaurants incredibly clean. Uh, the staff were dressed in these kind of paper disposable clothes. And I'm pretty sure that the beef was ground on the premises, within the presence of the customer. And so they effectively resurrected the burger. It was their marketing process which took a despised meat form and made it acceptable. That's crazy. So, so in a sense, they're the kind of, how would you describe it? They're the kind of John the Baptist to McDonald's Jesus. My wife's going to kill me, okay, but, but, um, you know, this was an extraordinary piece of psychological innovation which realizes that there's something that everybody likes to eat, but they don't trust it. So the first problem we've got to solve is not actually, um, a logistical problem or a supply problem. The first problem we've got to solve is a psychological problem, which is mistrust of ground beef.

There's a restaurant in, called. You need to get online. What time do the online gig start? 12. 12. Okay. So don't. I've got another eight. Seven minutes. Six minutes. Yeah. Want to go to Lou? Yeah. Yeah. That's true. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. We'll begin. I don't need a poo or the thing. Ruin the whole thing. We'll try. Um, we'll just, if we only got a couple minutes, do some quick questions then. So, are Seth had Seth Godin on again the other day, which was fascinating. I asked him a question, which is, what was a rule of marketing that was, which was around 400 years ago that will be, that will still be around in 400 years? I'd love to know what those are for you. Be famous. And it's so banal that we forget to say it. Advertising agencies feel stupid saying, "We're going to make you famous" because it sounds like, say, sort of banal. Instead, we say, you know, "We're going to reposition your brand as a DDA." Okay, right. But fame compounds. And fame also takes you through various interesting thresholds of growth where you don't have to find your customers, your customers find you. When you call someone, they return your calls. People come to you offering to work for you, rather than you having to find employees. That fundamentally, people work for you for longer because your, you know, your name on their CV may have some value to them, etcetera. That fame. It is completely wrong to look at advertising investment and fame on the basis of a crude ROI because fame is not an input. Fame, and therefore marketing expenditure, is not an input with a single result. It's a lubricant. It's a catalyst. Okay. The best definition I ever remember of this called, um, Johnson, I'm just trying to remember what his first name is, who wrote a book called "Brands That Mean Business." And he said, "Having a great brand is like playing the game of capitalism on easy mode. Everything you do, it isn't just selling. Everything you do is just a bit easier, a bit more forgiving, requires a bit less work than if you're playing the game on hard mode," which is when you don't have a brand. That's almost linked back to that. So going, "We spent some money on advertising and the effect on immediate sales was X." Compl. Underestimation of the value of fame-building activity. That links back to that sort of ecosystem of of the restaurants we're talking about earlier, having your halo effect of your Michelin star restaurant and your pub, your, you know, the fame from the halo. What you're doing is you're recirculating fame. Okay. In a. And absolutely right. And actually, some things you may make a small amount of money from, but they may be producing a lot of fame. Yes. Okay. So, yes, if you go and do talks, it's very well paid. Okay. But writing a book and talking about it on a podcast is actually enabling you to make that money from giving the talks by making you more famous. Right.

Uh, final question. And, and businesses are so obsessed with divide and rule. With what you mean by that? Well, taking every component of a business and demanding that it maximizes its own internal profit without consideration to the contribution that might be making to the rest of the, uh, the rest of the system. That that often, you know, I mean, I've managed to solve. I, you know, I managed to win this argument. But Ogie, you know, it would be very easy for Ogie to say, "Why are you going on a podcast? They're not paying you." Okay. And so, uh, consequently, uh, you know, I don't think any business has a proper calculus of the value of this stuff. I think that every single way in which they calculate it, designed by kind of reductionists in the finance department, serves to underestimate the value of marketing. H. One final thing. Um, yeah. So book, book, "The Ape That Understood the Universe." Great book. You know, that opening chapter is the alien coming down. Yep. And he's like, "What the [expletive] is humanity?" Right? Um, ask Seth, like, how would you explain the role of marketing, uh, to, um, on human nature to an alien? It goes way back beyond, beyond when they were humans, okay? Is the necessity in any, uh, in any any environment or ecosystem where, where individual where choices can be made, particularly that means one with movement. Okay. It is the necessity to communicate that in advance of what you. In other words, a bee can travel to a large flower with big petals in the confident expectation that the journey will not be wasted because a flower that didn't have much nectar or pollen. Now, orchids fake this, okay? There's fake advertising in nature, okay? Which is scam advertising. That the orchid looks like something that's attractive to the bee, but it doesn't deliver any nectar or pollen or anything of any value. So that's basically scam advertising. Orchids are scam advertising, right? Okay. In the plant world, okay? However, the confident expectation is that unless it was, it had enough nectar, pollen, whatever it is, sufficient to attract repeat business, repeat visits from insects, it would not be worth the while of this plant investing in petals to advertise its presence. And in the same way, if you're doing car advertising, it would be, uh, if this company spends $5 million advertising this car, they would not do that if on test driving the car, I discovered it was [expletive]. So at the very least, I can confidently believe it may be worth test driving this car, given that the investment in upfront communication, costly signaling, is a reliable indicator of a seller's confidence in the popularity of their product in some way. Now, if you want another example of costly signaling, by the way, that every single [expletive] podcast, we have the technology to have lapel mics, invisible microphones, right? Okay. Um, every single podcast has people sitting in front of expensive microphones, which is a way of saying, "I'm so serious about this [expletive], I've actually spewed you know, a few grand on recording equipment." This is this is totally pointless. There's no, there's no absolutely no. Sorry, probably might be causing offense, but an awful lot of this stuff, okay, is just, it's just, "Oh, these must be serious podcasters because they've got a big microphone." Well, I remember when we, I interviewed, um, James Smith, who's Chris Williamson's business partner, the other day. And we, it was the first time we'd used all this kit in BrewDog. And it straight away, you're almost like, you're better to have it than to not. But it's like we, as last time we recorded on iPhone, right? And I think it works fine. Yeah, fine. But when, when he came in the room, the first thing he, he said was like, "Yeah, you're proper podcasters" because the SD cards in there. And that's like a little status signaling thing. Sure. Mic is status signaling. Yes. You know, it's so interesting, right? Um, you've got, I got to go. I got to go. But this has been absolutely fantastic, as ever. What a pleasure. Thank you so much. I've got to go upstairs. Go. Oh. [Music]