Transcription
We had the weekly close on Bitcoin, it is super important for what's next. We will talk about it today. We will also give an update on Ethereum, which is triggering a rebound similar to Bitcoin, and of course, we will talk a little about the correlation we have on the indices with quick targets to reach on the indices to make a correlation point on BTC. Just before we start, I remind you that our algorithm service is still available. 30 TP for the LIM algorithms last week and also 30R, it's the best week for the SPT algorithms which have once again set a record. Once again, these algorithms, we have made them available to you for free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. I also remind you that past performance does not reflect future performance. Once again, here you just need to register on Bitgate. It's our partner link to get access. It's the first link. OK? You simply create your account. So there, you go through the little verification, you create your account and once that's done, you just have to click on this link right here. Algo trading mentorship VIP Alcoin and crypto. And it's a short video that explains how to activate all your access. So it's very simple to set up. It will take you a few minutes. You will then have access to the mentorship and also to the VIP Alcoin and Crypto on Discord. Right here. This is where I will share the best opportunities on Altcoins from my point of view. So for BTC, we had the weekly close. We can see that the breaker block did not form. We managed to close above $107,400, which is rather a good thing for now. Does this mean that afterwards, we will break this order block? Possibly. For now, in any case, that's not the case. And that's what's causing BTC to initiate a rebound. We talked about it this weekend, there are really very negative fundings. We see here that we are precisely going to liquidate those who are taking bearish positions, short positions. We can see it here with these spikes in short liquidations that are being triggered. So the market is looking for shorts. And so, where could we liquidate these short sellers who have been very aggressive in recent days? Well, literally, there was a first target, the daily fair value gap. Here, we are in it and so we are working this zone and if the market manages to break through, theoretically the next zone could be the short re-accumulation zone of this movement. So here between $111,200 and $113,295, but the real buy stop zone where we have all the stops is here. Why? Because here we can simply note that the price last week, it went down all week without taking stops. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. And here, you see that at no point did we take a daily high on this drop. We see that the market only went down without taking stops at any point. For example, on this movement here, we see that this weekend, so Sunday, the price on Sunday came to take the low of Saturday before initiating this movement. So, we already know that this is a zone, we shouldn't go back there. OK? If we are in a bullish trend that aims to recover the stops here at $115,943, theoretically, we are not supposed to go back to Sunday's low from my point of view. Which means that the price has already come back to work this candle. So here, I'm taking this candle, I'm looking for those who saw the mentorship, where did we go? We went into the discount zone of Sunday's candle. So theoretically, there is what it takes to aim for bullish continuation if we manage to break the daily FVG. And so the target would be here what we call the previous weekly high. So it's last week's high. This is where all the short sellers have their stops naturally since all those who shorted last week, since there was no liquidity grab, they all have their stops here. So clearly, this is a zone we could aim for. It's an important zone because it's the last bearish order block. And for example, if we see something like this, it would not be positive, it would be a liquidity grab, bearish continuation. We don't want to see that at all. OK? What we want to see is a Bitcoin that breaks this descending high to break the last descending high and confirm a W bottom structure which would aim to trigger a new ATH for us. OK? Because there are two possible scenarios on a weekly basis. There is the first scenario which is what we did but downwards. That is to say, and therefore this scenario is positive. We talked about it, it's an order block. We came to take the stops and it marked our reversal. We can do exactly the same thing. Here, we have our order block, we took the stops and we mark the reversal. However, there is the second scenario which is not the best, obviously, which is that the market, for example, is rejected in the daily fair value gap. So in short, this is the famous Sunday and Monday morning pump that fails and then we go back down. Well, afterwards, we will look at the hourly key levels to observe because there are interesting things to see if we are in scenario number 1, that is to say Sunday's pump and bearish continuation or not. But before that, I'll finish my explanation, the order block stops have been triggered. So first scenario exactly like here. It marks the reversal but in the opposite direction, grab of the bullish order block stops and we go back in the other direction. Scenario number 1. Scenario number 2 is that the price comes to recover last week's high but is rejected and then makes a bearish continuation and then it forms the breaker block. And then if we form the breaker block, we are indeed in a bearish swing which will aim for 98,000 and so on and so on. So that's why the last descending high is really an important level. This is where the short sellers have their stops. So for me, it's literally a zone we could potentially aim for. But to do that, from my point of view on the daily price reading, since there has already been a stop grab here, we must not go back below this low. And the fact that we have come back to work the discount zone of this candle for those who saw the mentorship, it's rather positive to try to aim for this buy stop zone. And how to say that the market will go for this buy stop zone? It's quite simple. We switch to hourly. Here, we have a first hourly inversion, that is to say, we have the first bullish breaker block. Here, I will take all the bullish flow before the bearish flow. And roughly, the market here has formed its breaker block. This is the zone below which, on an hourly basis, we must not go back. Also on the CME, if I show you quickly, we came to fill the daily FVG. The price maintained it once again. All of this was the daily FVG. We see that we closed inside. So that's rather OK. Oops, we came to take the stops, closed inside. We are working the last daily FVG. If we break it, we also see that on our side on the CME, this FVG is still open. So this could be an FVG we can aim for. But before that, we have to break the daily FVG. And so, so, so, so here, we also have on the CME the breaker block and I want to tell you on the CME, it's even cleaner because we can see that at the beginning, there is a stop grab. We came back to look for the opening gap, the New Week Open Gap which is not 100% filled but we came to stress it a bit and now we are continuing. So for me the target will be to observe precisely this breaker zone. For me the price is not supposed to lose this breaker block here. If we want to maintain the bullish flow we are triggering to aim for the next zone, last week's high which is also here on the CME, the target will simply be there. So, yes, it's good. Here, the target is to maintain the breaker and if we maintain it, the price will go for the buy stop zones here. OK, but for that, we have to maintain the breaker. And so, this will give us a target this week to go back above last week's high. So, this is Monday's high which is there, and to take the stops. If I switch to weekly, we can clearly see that last week's high is here. So that would be a target. So that's what we will observe this week. And then of course, to go for a new ATH, I repeat, we have to break the daily fair value gap. This is the crash candle. We absolutely must break through it. If we don't, it's not good. That's why if the price comes here, takes the stops and we are rejected, then we should expect a bearish continuation with a target of 98K. If the price comes here, well, first of all, we don't know if it will go there, we have to break through the daily FVG, but if we break through it, there is really the possibility, if we break this zone well and we break the daily PG, that we will go for a new ATH and then exceed $126,300 because and that we can continue to rise. So, we will have to monitor what is happening with risk assets because obviously we have the American indices, which are extremely important, and for now, we saw on Friday before Trump said yes, there will be no tariffs as high on China, we came to take the stops of the current week. So, we had a rather interesting liquidity grab. We had the rebound. For now, for me, the market seems to be heading towards last week's high on the Nasdaq. So I think we will go there. And if we are not rejected on the grab of last week's high, there will probably be an ATH grab and then we will have to see what happens at the ATH level. Are we rejected? Yes, no. Uh, but that's what we will have to observe. I remind you that as long as the indices are in a bullish trend, it facilitates cryptos to not enter a very bearish trend because as you know, they are quite correlated. Every time we have selling pressure on the American indices, we feel it directly on BTC. And when we have buying pressure, well, it makes it a little easier. Here, we see that the two are correlated. because for now the indices since Trump spoke, we see that here, we have a rebound that is going for the stop zones. We see that Bitcoin is doing more or less the same thing. And here, there is also the breaker that I showed you just before that we need to maintain to put pressure on these highs up to around $116,000. So this is on the CME, on the perpetual market. the target would be the same $115,913. These can be targets we can aim for. Now, regarding the funding rates, well, we see that they are still more or less negative. Yesterday on Hyperliquid, I would say even during the night on Hyperliquid, they were still negative. On Bybit, they are below neutrality. On Binance, they were still negative yesterday. So, we see that people are shorting quite quickly. Uh, which is good for trying to put upward pressure, but we absolutely must maintain our breaker. This is really what will allow us to maintain the bullish bias for this week to have a target which will be what we call the previous weekly high, so last week's high. Also what is interesting is that if I switch to a 3-day scale, we can see that there is also the FVG here that we can work on. So for me, this can be a target, a goal to aim for this week. OK. So regarding ETH and then well, always step by step, if we break the last descending high and we break the daily FVG, then enjoy new ATH bullish continuation and Bitcoin continues. So, we will have just had a stop grab of the last bullish order block in order to make bullish continuation. But if we are rejected at the levels we saw, then it looks more like a bearish continuation and the next zones of interest even at the liquidation levels. Imagine here, you see, there are the stops there. Wait, here, I'll show you. Here, we see that the last, well, the liquidation grab, well, the liquidations triggered are above $116,000 approximately. We see it here. If we come to take the stops and we are rejected, unfortunately, we will not go for this liquidation zone up to $130,000 and therefore, the market will purge lower below this because there is a large liquidation cluster. That's why we absolutely must break this zone and not be rejected here and also today break the daily FVG. So, ETH is a bit similar. ETH is still working its last FVG. Also what we will note is last week's high which is right here. So here I will write previous weekly high. So last week's high. I switch to daily here and so we are triggering a rebound. Where are the short sellers' stops? Well, they are above last week's high and they are above September's high. So $4768 and in the shorter term $4294. These are also zones to watch. On the THM side. We have exactly the same structure. That is to say, here, we can note that we have our breaker block that has formed and I will note it more precisely. For me, it will be this price zone here. And so, as long as this breaker is respected, the idea is to simply aim for the last, the last stop zones. And so here, I will note it for you, it will be a bit simpler, but the main zone is the previous weekly high. But then here, you look to your left and you look where the stops are, the buy stop zones. So we have here $4089 and we have here $4216. So here, as long as the breaker is respected, this also influences what we have here on hourly, the market aims to put pressure on the stops. Similarly, what we don't want to see is something like this. Once the stops are taken, the price reverses and finally, it goes back down. Because, I've talked about this many times before, also this weekend and at the end of last week. But what we need is not just liquidating short sellers and going back down. What we want is sustained rises because what you need to understand is that there is a selling pressure on cryptos currently. There is more supply than demand. That is to say, despite the large record inflows we had, there were 4 or 5 billion on the last bullish push, even 6 billion, I think I calculated with the students last week, they were absorbed at this top. So despite 5 or 6 billion in inflows on the spot ETFs, we did not manage to break the resistance. And so, well, if the inflows don't come back, yes, it would indicate that these are unfortunately just rebounds before bearish continuations and therefore, well, we take obvious stops and then we go back down. So this is what we absolutely must avoid. That's why, be attentive to these levels, watch the funding rates closely. Anyway, that's what we will do this week. For me, for now, the short-term bullish bias, in the coming days, as long as ETH and BTC maintain their breakers, if we go back below the breakers, I tell you honestly, well, it smells like bearish continuation. So that's why I'll summarize to close this video. So not on Bybit, we will always take Binance, they are the market makers of the market as a whole. Here, we can see that as long as the bullish breaker is respected and I even want to tell you on the CME, it's even cleaner. Basically, we put pressure on the stop on the left. Knowing that people are short from a derivatives perspective, we see it in the funding rates, that people don't hesitate to short the market. So, as long as we maintain this breaker, going back below the breaker would be more indicative of a bearish continuation. And we see quite quickly that the next target on the CME is here at 10285, which would also correspond to our low of this wick that we would also go for on the perpetual market. As long as the breaker is maintained, we put pressure on the stop zones with a target of $115,912 this week possibly. So that's what to observe. And on Ethereum, it's exactly the same thing, except that the precise levels are as follows. $4293 for the stop zone on ETH in the first instance. And the breaker zone here, we shouldn't start coming back too much below three, let's take a wide zone, let's say $3850. If we start seeing ETH below $3850, it smells more like a bearish bias for the week. I'll stop here. I hope you enjoyed it. I try to be as objective as possible. So I hope you like it. Don't hesitate to leave comments, thumbs up, to subscribe, it helps me enormously. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description. Again, very big records on SPT which had an excellent week. So, it could be interesting for you. I repeat, past performance does not represent future performance. We have put all the proofs in Discord, of course, we are 100% transparent about it. I'll stop here. We'll meet again later for the macro review. See you soon. Bye bye.