Transcription
Hi, this is Kri Artech with Wicked Stocks, bringing you your daily Nvidia report for Tuesday, January 21st, 2025.
Let's take a look at the charts. I'll start with the weekly chart, which shows that we have dipped into what I consider to be longer-term support, between 12703 and 13219.
However, the daily chart, especially the 13219 formation, has a slightly different set of numbers, which you can see here at 12998 and rising. The daily chart is also at 12703. So, if you want to skew more into the lower end rather than starting at 13219, which we still show as a multi-week support level, you could hold out for 12703 to 12998, which remains in reach this week.
Holding below 13853, which is a 38 upside Fibonacci over the last couple of weeks, has contained highs from late last week. I do think we're poised to violate it, just given the fact that we did test this long-term support area on the weekly chart.
Here's the daily chart once again, 12703, but on the weekly chart, you've got 12703 to 13219. That really is an upward retracement into the lower 50s, mid-50s. I'll get to that in a minute. The upper 60s are in reach over the next 2 to 3 months, and this is rising as part of a big range of long-term resistance up to 18413, which I think is also in reach over the next several months.
So, this is a big area. This upper 120s, low 130 support allows this market to continue onward and upward into the mid-180s over the next 2 to 3 months. Of course, we'll need buy signals on the way up, and I think our next meaningful one, at least on the daily chart, is above 15446.
I consider this formation a 2 to 3-week objective now, and I have for some time, holding above that 12703 to 13219 area. On the daily chart, it looks more like this: 12703 to 12998 will keep 15446 in reach over the next 2 to 3 weeks.
Upside today, pushing or opening above 13853, does allow for 14411, which is a 5/8 upside Fibonacci. We could quite easily top out there on a daily basis. It is a bit stair-step on the way up, but in terms of the broader sweeping move, holding above that support in the upper 120s, low 130s will keep 15446 as a 2 to 3-week target, 16706 as a 1 to 2-month objective, and over the next 2 to 3 months, once again, that 18413 one-year channel top on the weekly chart.
So, closing above 13853, I would anticipate 14411 tomorrow. If we don't test it today, we can top out there on a daily basis. Know that if we close above 14411, that objective I showed a moment ago, and again, right where you are here at 15446, is likely to be realized within a week or two at the most.
So, this is a 2 to 3-week target. If we can close over the next day or two above 14411, it becomes more of a 1 to 2-week objective. This former channel bottom at 1508 has been reduced to just an intraday level. It is rising at such a steep pace that by the time we were to test it, it will have already surpassed this channel top at 15446.
So, I don't see it as a relevant level anymore, but we nonetheless follow these through time, especially if they coincide with other factors.
So, that kind of summarizes the upside. I think 13853 for day traders and 3 to 5-day swing traders can contain today's highs, below which we can ease back to 13485 today.
13485 is nothing more than a 34-day rising channel bottom. It has pivot point qualities. We could trade inside the 13485 to 13853 area all day long. If we close below 13485, we should fall back into this 12703 to 12998 region within 1 to 3 days.
Once again, 12998 is on the weekly chart at 13219. So, I'll let you be the decider of that. Obviously, whether you use 13219, if you're kind of a broad-sweeping, longer-term 3 to 5-week, 2 to 3-month position trader, you might have 13219.
But if you're a 3 to 5-day swing trader or a 2 to 3-week position swing trader, you might just hold out for 12703 to 12998. Holding below 13853 will keep that area, 12703 to 12998, in reach this week.
If we do close today below 13485, we should see it within a day or two. The 12703 to 12998 area can absorb selling through February and even into the second quarter, perhaps.
Yet, if we close below 12703, everything I mentioned earlier about expecting 15446 within 2 to 3 weeks, the upper 160s within 1 to 2 months, and the mid-180s within 2 to 3 months, you can throw that out the window, so to speak.
Closing below 12703 is a significant downside pivot point, expecting 12199 within a day or two, 11454 within a week or two. 11454 is a 5/8 downside Fibonacci from that August low against the November high.
Ultimately, closing below 12703 carries with it a 10361, 3 to 5-week roughly objective, where we could actually bottom out through the second quarter and round back up again.
So, if we close below 12703, there's no good reason to be long Nvidia as we move into and even through the month of February. If we close below 12703, 1 to 2-week swing traders might reach for 115 strike out-of-the-money puts that don't expire for at least a couple of weeks, 2 to 3 weeks, or 105 strike out-of-the-money puts that don't expire for at least 2 to 3 months.
On that 3 to 5-week play, what I like about this 12703 formation, by the way, is that it offers a directional indication. Even if we happen to close below, this is a classic horizontal channel bottom.
So, closing below is an undeniable sell signal as we move through February. But if we close below and then back above, that is a significant head fake, and you can just climb back on board to the long side, anticipating higher trade.
So, I'm just kind of giving you the advance as to what my thinking is on 12703. It's a big support area. We're above it, and I hope that being the case, I am expecting meaningful gains over the next 2 to 3 weeks into the mid-150s, upper 160s over the next month or two.
As I said earlier, over the next 2 to 3 months, that 18413 one-year channel top is in reach. I think that pretty much rounds it out.
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I'm going to leave it at that. I'll be back tomorrow, of course, with Wednesday's Nvidia report. You have a great day!