Transcription
We are arriving in an area that is extremely important for Bitcoin. We had spoken about it, we will speak about it again today. It is truly the area on which the market can turn around. So it is an area on which we will focus. We will also do an analysis point on Ethereum and we will look a little at what is happening with the fundings and so on to see if there are any excesses in leveraged positions. Just before starting, I remind you that our algo service is still available. Last week's results are out. 31 TP for the LIM algorithms and 7.97R for the SPT algorithms. That is to say, it generated almost 8 times more gains than the risk taken on each trade. Obviously, past performance does not reflect future performance. It is just a transparent follow-up of our results which are available in the Discord every week. We are 100% transparent. So, to access it, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content will bring you back to this page. You just have to register on BitGate via our partner link. It is mandatory to go through our partner link, otherwise it will not work. This will bring you back to this page, you create your account and once that is done, you just have to click on this second link right here which will allow you to activate your algos, and also to retrieve the mentorship. It is a complete training from A to Z on price action that will really help you. 24 video courses are offered to you and you will also have access to the VIP, Alcoin and Crypto here to get the best opportunities from my point of view on the Altcoin market. This is where I will share the best opportunities from my point of view. I remind you that all of this is free from A to Z.
So, to come here on BTC, we are arriving at the stop zones that we had identified because there are many people to liquidate, especially on Hyperliquide. So the advantage of Hyperliquide is that the positions are transparent, meaning that we can see the stop losses, we can see the liquidations, and here there is a tool that allows us to see real liquidations in real time. What you need to understand is that the liquidations you see on tools like Highblock, for example, are not real liquidations. They are liquidations estimated by algorithms. However, here, we are truly on real liquidations. And so we can see that we had a liquidation cluster that was quite significant to target above the weekly highs here at $116,000. We see that there are many liquidations and we see that the market is heading there since there are not many liquidations to the south. So we are looking for liquidations to the north.
And so when we look a little at the fundings, we see that on Binance, for example, it's starting to close positions a bit. So people who bet on the downside are being pushed out. On Bit, there isn't much change here. Positions are opening a bit. So some people are starting to go long a bit here. However, on Hyperliquide, it's interesting to note that the open interest is starting to explode. Well, explode is a strong word, it's starting to increase with fundings that are increasing and have gone above neutrality at 0.027%. So this indicates that people are starting to enter leveraged positions on this Bitcoin pump here in an area where you need to be extremely careful. Now, I'm not saying that Bitcoin will reverse in these price zones specifically. I'm just saying that you need to be super careful because this is where all the stops from the last few weeks were. It's a weekly high that we are, in my opinion, going to hunt. And we have this fair value gap zone on the daily chart that could indeed cause us to be rejected and trigger the following scenario: consolidation, manipulation, expansion. And so this would be a bearish continuation pattern, a corrective pattern that must absolutely be avoided. That's why the price reaction in this zone will be extremely important to judge a bearish continuation or not. What we want to see is Bitcoin breaking like this and maintaining this price zone to then go for a new ATH and break a new record above $126,000. If we are rejected in this zone, there is a very high chance of a bearish continuation with an objective of $98,000. That will be the next stop zone to trigger. So that's why this zone will be extremely important.
This week, we have super important news. We will normally have the agreement between China and the United States. So we will try to find out how many tariffs will be imposed on China. There will probably be a few tariffs. We will also need to understand how the market will interpret inflation. We see here that inflation is starting to rise again. This is really something we need to monitor. I remind you that if inflation rises too much, the Fed cannot lower rates, at least not as much as it would like. And this delays the end of our monetary restriction. So this is really a data point to observe. Also, we obviously have the FOMC. So the Fed will lower rates. The market estimates this as probable with a 97% probability. So it's already priced in. Yes, the Fed will lower interest rates, but the most important thing will be the speech. When will the Fed end QT? So when will it stop withdrawing liquidity? That will be the most important thing for us. So, we are keeping in mind China and the United States and also the FOMC this week. And since the government in the United States has still not recovered, we will not have the core PCE figures, we will have to wait a little longer. So, it's rather the results on which we will focus. Or rather, especially the FOMC and the news between the United States and China. So really a very big, extremely important zone.
On the CME futures, it's exactly the same reading. That is to say, this fair value gap is 100% open on the CME and so we risk working on it as well. So here, the zone would be $116,570, and it's an extremely important zone to judge whether Bitcoin has marked a top or not. If we were to be rejected like this, it would start to indicate that we are truly entering a bearish movement that could last several weeks. That's why this zone will be extremely important and why it must be broken at all costs.
To move on to Ethereum, here, the zone, well, the zone is roughly the same for Ethereum. That is to say, we also have the stops from the weekly high here that we will very likely have to take, and we will have to observe the price reaction after this liquidity grab because once again, if we make these Wom here at the contact of the first stop, it's very positive for a bullish continuation towards $5,000 and to break the ATH by taking all the stops we left behind us. This is scenario number 1. So the break, the price holds very well, and we have a continuation towards $5,000, the big round number, and also the ATH to break all the stops that were not taken. The second scenario is consolidation, manipulation, expansion. Now, it's not really manipulation, it's the name of the concept. Basically, we consolidate, we reverse traders who bet on the downside, and then we really go down. So, we take their stop losses, and once all the sellers have exited their trades, we will really go down. So consolidation, the stop grab which is therefore, in quotes, the manipulation, and then the bearish expansion which triggers the real bearish movement. That's why we will have to observe Bitcoin's reaction in its zone, it will be extremely important, and Ethereum as well because it will follow Bitcoin in its price reaction, quite simply. So this is a bit of what I will observe. We see that we are heading towards this liquidity grab, very likely at $4,293, and we will have to see the price reaction.
Then, we can quickly look at the ETFs. It was the weekend, so the ETFs were closed. And this is what we will have to observe this week. If we really want Bitcoin and Ethereum to start rising again, we need ETFs that are buyers. We need massive inflows to put pressure on the spot market and to make the price rise and finally break the ATH resistance on Ethereum and finally break the resistance on Bitcoin around $125,000-$126,000.
Also, what we can look at on Ethereum, well, what we can also look at are the American indices. We see that the American indices opened with a huge gap. So the market is accelerating upwards here, which means Bitcoin is doing exactly the same thing. And as long as the indices are bullish, it's rather positive. On the Nasdaq, for example, a bullish breaker has formed. So this is truly a bullish continuation structure that we have on the American indices. And so the idea is to say that as long as the VIX has not purged its annual lows, the American markets will not correct much more than that. So this is rather positive for Bitcoin, which can potentially follow the American indices precisely because they are very bullish. Now, the indices are more bullish than Bitcoin, but as long as the indices are rising, it can create buying pressure on BTC as well. We just see that it is lagging and that it is less sought after than American indices. So this shows that there is a little less demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum than for American indices. But as long as the American indices are rising, it can still create bullish flow on BTC and ETH. So this will be something to observe.
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to leave a thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box for those who want to get a lot of free content. There is a lot of content, whether it's our algos, the mentorship, or the Alcoin VIP. I invite you to check all of that out. We'll meet again later for the macro review. See you soon. Bye bye.