Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market analysis. We will mainly talk about BTC, which is currently being rejected near the ATH. Is this serious or not? Is it, on the contrary, an opportunity to position ourselves? What would I not like to see? Conversely, what would I like to see? We will of course answer all these questions, which will clearly allow you to have a real vision for this weekend and the coming days. We will of course talk about Ether, and we will look at some altcoins, notably three cryptos that I have been asked to analyze: ADA, Arbitrum, and uh, and BGB. Before I start with BTC, I remind you that the current offer is €200 off the Crypto Investor program. It's truly the best time to train yourself, given where we are in this cycle, because we could potentially be on a bull run recovery, and if we establish a market top now, we could potentially enter a bear market. Crypto Investor is years of experience that I share with you inside, plus 30 hours of video, and also coaching. There is private message support, and it's a huge amount of knowledge and skills that I've acquired in recent years, which allows me to offer you a tailor-made program that will enable you to invest in cryptos professionally, succeed in a bull market, limit losses in a bear market, and choose the best cryptos to put in your portfolio, through fundamental analysis, tokenomics analysis, and technical analysis. Already with these three modules, you will know what to enter and when to enter. That's important, the what and the when. Okay? When you master both, you have very good entries on very good cryptos. I'll show you my rating system as well, so you can see how we concretely analyze a crypto and how we put it in our portfolio with a greater exposure depending on this rating that you will be able to perform. How to build your tailor-made portfolio? How to adapt it to your profile? I'm sharing three very high-performing portfolios with you, and above all, I'm showing you my own portfolio, okay? With the cryptos I own. Modules have recently been added that will allow you to succeed well in a bull market, whether it's detecting a top when the market turns, managing your emotions well, seeing signs of overheating, and succeeding in your bear market, which will allow you to manage well, as stated, manage your bear market well, know when a bottom is forming, my method, for my part, to prepare for the next one that is coming, and so on and so forth. So, two modules that will clearly allow you to be 100% effective, regardless of the cycle we are in, and some mindset and financial management modules that will complement the modules you will see just before. And of course, bonuses, it's the most important bonus, clearly, I'm telling you, it's this one, okay? It's really the big plus of this program, it's personalized support. Oh yes, the other bonuses are very important. Okay, but this one, I support you via private message, I answer your questions. We can have a check-in, and I have people who send me messages once a week, once a month, saying "Nico, here's where I am with my portfolio, I've taken my profiles into account, what do you think?" And then, I don't give you investment advice, that's not the point, but I guide you, and my goal is for you to be 100% autonomous. So, as I said, you have €200 off the program. If you want to see the different testimonials, you can find them here. I have a page on Trust Pilot with verified reviews. You can also read them. And if you have questions, you can of course ask me, whether on Discord, by email, or by clicking here and writing me your question. So, if you really want to put all your chances on your side to succeed in this bull market, it's the best time to take advantage of it by clicking on the first link in the description.
So, I'll start here on BTC. We came close to the ATH, just a few dollars away, and we had a rejection at the end of the day with a wick that is quite significant, representing almost 50% of the candle. We see it clearly, we had a violent dump with a high wick and a retracement that shows us that sellers are making themselves known, which is not surprising. I'm the first to tell you, we don't enter close to an ATH. Okay? It's not at an ATH that we'll start FOMOing, that we'll build long-term positions, and that we'll start getting excited about "to the moon." No, automatically, close to an ATH, it can already be a good zone to take profits. In the Discord, I was asked the question. I was told, "Yeah, Nico, I took my profits around $121,000, if I remember correctly, $122,000, we're close to the ATH." Well, yes, that's perfectly normal. The person who entered at a low point, who took their +10% on swing positions, for example, that's a good TP. Why? Because we are at resistance. And this is the mindset of many people: when the market retraces, they start to panic. That's it, it's the end. I remember this level, March-April 2025, when everyone was panicking, "that's it, it's the end." We were accumulating here with quite a few "fishing net" orders that were executed. However, when we are very high here, $100,000, $105,000, when Trump is speaking, when there are pumps, when there is volatility, everyone says, "that's it, to the moon, we have to start positioning ourselves." Whereas I am the first here to sell because I have signals that I don't like, that I don't like to see. So, yes, someone tells me, "I want to take profits because I estimate we are at high levels." Well, yes, that's perfectly logical. Now, is it because of that that we're going to turn around? Is it because of that that we're going to establish a market top? Not necessarily. We can take profits when we are at high levels, for example, at this level. Okay, we are at high levels because we are close to the ATH. That doesn't mean we're establishing a top. On the contrary, we have a new impulse. Here, we might do the same thing to have a new impulse. I don't anticipate. My goal is not to anticipate what will happen. It's simply to react to what I see. What I see for now is that we are at resistance, but we still have a momentum that is quite significant. We see it in daily and 4-hour charts, there's a weakening, that's a fact, and that's why we might enter a range. Okay, for at least this weekend, maybe Monday, Tuesday. Okay, a consolidation phase. It can retrace a bit lower, it's possible because in 4-hour we have a weakening, but in daily, we continue to have a momentum that is rather interesting. Globally, what I will be watching, to be completely transparent, well, it's already Saturday, and tomorrow is Sunday, generally low volatility. I don't expect big moves, unless there's a very important announcement that comes out of nowhere. But what I will be watching, globally, is whether we go back below this level. Okay, here we have good polarity. So, even if it was an intermediate resistance before we broke it, it's a level we broke that now acts as support. And globally, if we start to engulf this candle, a rather impulsive candle that was made during the week on Friday with a lot of volatility. Uh, yeah, I wouldn't like to see that. We would have a high chance of experiencing a more significant correction. So, as long as we stay above $120,000, all good. If we start to re-enter, we will have a high chance of going back to test $117,000, which will be a very important support level, because if we do that after this pump and we re-enter again, for me, it's to go even lower, at least to take the lows here that were not taken. So, we can retrace, there's no problem. When I put the moving averages, we see that we are far from the 1-hour tunnel and far from the 4-hour tunnel. If a 1-hour tunnel starts to do this, we can very well come and lean on it. That's entirely possible. Here, we have lost momentum in the very short term, and that's normal. And I was the first to tell you that at some point, this 3-minute tunnel will break downwards. That's perfectly normal, okay? We can't maintain momentum like this for 3 months, right? Because otherwise, at this rate, BTC would be at $400,000. Okay? So, it's perfectly normal to have a market that breathes, and ultimately, have we turned around? If we look at it like this, if we take a step back, okay, is the market in a downtrend? Here, I see a range. Okay, I simply see a range with a daily pivot point acting as support, the 15-minute tunnel slightly below. I don't see any signs of reversal. It's like when we were at this level, see, boom, we had a strong pump. Well, here we have a range. Now, it's true that this range is lasting a bit longer, but it's possible. A range can last a few days, a few weeks, it's entirely possible. It might be that this range lasts for quite some time. What I see is that for now, I have no signs of reversal. Now, sometimes this kind of movement can be scary, and it's true that when I look at the Discord, sometimes people start saying, "Ah, that's it, we're topping out because we see a movement of -2% in just a few minutes, or in an hour at most." And I understand. Except that you have to take a step back and say, well, volatility was very strong in one direction. It's perfectly normal that when we correct, volatility is also strong. See here, ultimately, when I take this movement, a pump, a dump. Okay? Boom! It's simply typical of an uptrend. We pump and we retrace. Except that here, whether we take +30% at this level and -10% here, or +3% here and -1% here. Okay? It's exactly the same thing. Proportionally, it's the same thing, and it's traded like an uptrend. It's true that, on the other hand, when you have a lot of volatility, it's proportional, and it's the same in the other direction. You can't have +30% on one side and then a -1% correction. No, that's not possible. So, you have to accept volatility and not start saying, "Ah, because there's a big percentage drop, that's it, it's a top." No, not at all. If, on the other hand, we had a strong rise with good momentum, well, that doesn't necessarily mean we're establishing a market top. So, for me, nothing to report on BTC. Moving averages are still oriented upwards. I'm looking more for longs in the direction of the trend. Now, it's Saturday, Sunday, generally, as I said, less volatility. We are not at levels where I will start FOMOing. When I say I'm looking for longs in the direction of the trend, it's mainly for intraday trading. Okay? If it doesn't go my way, if we settle below, if I lose momentum, I exit. It's not like for the long term. If I enter at $121,000, well, it's not to have a stop loss at $120,000. That's short-term trading. When I talk about invalidating by $1,000, $500, that's short-term. For the long term, if I enter at $121,000, well, I'll have a much lower invalidation, which requires a larger risk-reward. And generally, I don't have these kinds of entries because it's not professional. For the long term, I position myself mainly during retracement phases, like we had here. If there had been a lower retracement here, I could have positioned myself. I didn't position myself at all at this level. That's how it is, you can't be in every move. Here, I clearly benefited, profited a lot. Here, I entered a lot. See, at that time, I didn't profit a lot. I remember I even took a stop loss because I had signs of a top. Okay, I had positioned myself for a reversal, we re-entered, I exited here, I had positioned myself. You see what I want to make you understand is that you can't catch every move. I'm being transparent with you, really. I'm telling you I took a stop loss here. I could lie to you and say, "Yeah, no, I didn't have anything here." No, no, I'm telling you. Sometimes there are moves, I profit from them, like here I entered heavily. Here, I entered a bit. Here, I entered a bit too. Especially, I profited from Ether and other altcoins. BTC is not where I entered the most heavily. Here, I haven't entered at all. That's how it is. You can't be present in every move because sometimes our scenario doesn't unfold. The market makes it unfold. We don't force our scenario if it doesn't unfold. So, that's it, for BTC, for me, nothing to report. It's normal to have volatility. We still have moving averages oriented upwards. If you estimate that we are at high levels, we are at interesting levels to take profits, okay, I understand that. However, we have no signs of reversal. To say we have a sign of reversal is to lie. It's false. To say we are at resistance and at high levels to take profits there, I agree. However, as I said, if we start to do this, to settle below this level, then we could be at a medium-term top, for short to medium term, to go back to test much lower levels. So, that's it for BTC.
Regarding Ether, well, Ether is doing a bit of what we saw yesterday, what I was watching. We have a close here with a wick that is quite significant, representing well over 50% of the candle. Okay, so a good correction. We're going back to test this support zone that was previously resistance. Now, can we really talk about a break? Yes, but it's timid. The break is more in the 4-hour chart because even when we look at the 6-hour, it's timid. We still have upper wicks here that show us that sellers are waking up. So, ideally, we don't want to go back below $4420 because we would lose our 15-minute tunnels, which act as support here, and especially we would go below this level, which is an intermediate level that acts as support or resistance depending on whether we are above or below it. So, we see Ether is leaning on this level. Ideally, we are in a good location to look for longs to aim for trend continuation. However, if we lose this level, we will have a high chance of going back to test at least the 1-hour tunnel here, where, no, we don't have a confluence with a weekly pivot point. That's a shame. Globally, that's the only setup I can watch for Ether. Either I load up on longs here with an invalidation if we lose this level, or I wait for a pullback a bit lower at the 1-hour tunnel level. However, if we take off again with a good buying reaction, the objective is simple: the next upper boundary at $4800. That's the next resistance. After that, we still have a small intermediate resistance to note around $4650 in this zone. And the biggest resistance, well, it's globally the resistance just before the ATH. If I put moving averages here as well, on Ether, we are globally around a weekly pivot point within the 15-minute tunnel. We have lower wicks every time we test this level. We see that this level is strongly defended. Well, globally, if you are looking for longs, this is already a good zone to look for longs. Globally, your invalidation is here. If we lose this level, we go below these wicks, which means we no longer have buying reaction. Buyers are no longer present to maintain the price, and then we could experience a more significant retracement. So, the zone is good for Ether, but with a tight invalidation in case we can't hold these levels. So, that's it for Ether against the dollar.
And I wanted to quickly talk about ETH/BTC because I was asked a question on YouTube. Someone even answered for me, but with a very good intervention. They asked, "Yes, how come you look at the ETH/BTC pair, why are there support levels on this chart?" In fact, what you need to understand is that there is arbitrage. There is arbitrage everywhere. First, you need to know that the market is mainly traded more by algorithms than by humans. That's why transactions can happen very quickly. That's why sometimes when news comes out, the market reacts instantly. It's not specifically humans waiting for the news and as soon as the news comes out, they press sell. No, there are many algorithms, many robots like that running, and a lot of arbitrage is carried out, whether in crypto or even in traditional finance. And there is arbitrage between Ether and BTC, meaning direct exchanges of Ether for BTC without necessarily going through USDT. Okay. Direct exchanges. You go to your exchanges, you type ETH BTC, you can exchange your Ether directly for BTC and vice versa. So, this creates patterns that can simply reproduce themselves. Now, yes, automatically, we will see much less volume on ETH/BTC than on ETH/USDT or BTC/USDT. That's perfectly normal. But there is still arbitrage that must be taken into account, and that's why we can have patterns here that occur at the altcoin level.
Now, regarding altcoins that are correcting a bit more, we see today that no altcoin is really standing out, except for MNT. Some are correcting a bit more: Kaspa, WIF, Render. Here we have PEPE, AVAX, and NEAR. So, we see that we have cryptos that are a bit weaker. Kaspa is the weakest altcoin of the week. And even against BTC, with the recent drop we've had since yesterday evening's top, not many altcoins are outperforming BTC. Some are really falling, like Terra Classic, AVAX, SHIB. SHIB is really falling a lot. Others are standing out and continuing to perform well, like BNB. BNB is also doing well. It's a bit of a struggle for some. But globally, not too many altcoins have been standing out lately.
Now, regarding the altcoins you asked me to analyze, I have, well, I noted ADA, but I won't do it because I did it two days ago. So, I invite you to watch my video from two or three days ago. I did ADA, so we'll do another one instead. Now, I'll start with Arbitrum. Each time, how it works: when you leave a comment on YouTube, I note down the altcoins you mention directly in a notepad, and sometimes I might put them in twice because they are requested multiple times, and I analyze them in order. So, for those who asked for certain altcoins to be analyzed in the last two or three days, it will come, it will come in the next ones. You can put them in the comments again now if you want. I will analyze them, of course. But I'm following an order. If there are many requests, it will take a bit more time. I try to do three per day generally. Arbitrum, what's happening? Well, here we've come back to test low levels. On Arbitrum, we've made all-time lows. There's a very important level, which is this one. Let me just draw it. Okay, a very important level here that acted as support. We broke it, it acted as resistance, we broke it again upwards, it acted as support, and we are re-entering this level. It's a level where the market seems to be playing a lot. And globally, it's an invalidation. Clearly, globally, I would be more of a seller below this level and a buyer above this level. If we go back above, it's a bullish signal. Here, being below is not great, because we have validated a bottom, that's a fact, except that we didn't take off immediately. Boom, we bounced, and here we've structured an MTP. We clearly see the peak, the trough, the peak lower than the previous one, and the break downwards. So, here we are rather bearish in a weekly reversal pattern. If I put moving averages, we are back below the moving averages. We still have a daily chart that is rather oriented downwards. A 3-day chart oriented downwards. We might have a 1-hour and a 4-hour chart that is flat, or even oriented downwards, since we have broken the 4-hour resistance line. Well, when we look at Arbitrum here, it's not the most interesting altcoin to trade. If I put Arbitrum against BTC on a weekly chart. Oops. Yeah, it's not great. Arbitrum is clearly underperforming BTC. Not surprising. Why? We saw it yesterday when we talked a bit more about Arbitrum: an altcoin with a lot of tokens to unlock. The entire supply is not in circulation. We see it clearly. Circulating supply 5.4 billion, total supply 10 billion. So, there are token unlocks happening. All of this, yes, is important. It's good to master fundamental analysis and know the project. Except that if you don't master tokenomics analysis, you might invest in projects with a lot of token unlocks. You see, positioning yourself on Arbitrum during this phase, April 2023, 2024, etc., until April 2024, could be interesting. We see that it's even a crypto that performed, boom, from April 2023. Boom, and from, you see, April 2024, at this level, the first unlocks were made. So, from the lowest point to the highest point, it's still a 3x, a good performance. And especially, it's a 3x that happened in a few weeks, a few months. Let's say from October to January, in 3 months. Here, we achieved a very good performance. At that time, there were no token unlocks. I remind you, at the launch of a project, especially recent cryptos that are created, we have cryptos that will be distributed among different stakeholders: private investors, the team, the treasury, airdrops that are carried out, in short, a lot of distributions. I was looking for another word but couldn't find it. And at the beginning, there are no unlocks. See, at the beginning, there are no unlocks. The airdrop is carried out. So, that's more for the public. And then, the unlock is carried out for private investors and for the team. Private investors who benefited from a low token price, 12 cents at this level, and here, $0.005 cents. I'll show you a bit so you can see. Those who got it at 12 cents are globally in profit, clearly, with a 3x or so. Those who got it at $0.05, where is $0.05? Here. Okay. They have a good performance. Okay. We agree. After all, it's normal, these are people who invested in this project. The project was very new. So, it's normal that they are rewarded. Except that when they start to have token unlock phases, these are stakeholders who will take their profits. They can't before because the tokens are locked in smart contracts. Okay? Why do we do that? Well, to prevent everyone from dumping their tokens on the public at the project launch. Okay? And to ruin the project. So, they take their profits, and automatically, April 2024, beginning of token unlocks, that's when it started to, well, even before, we established a market top, price is always ahead, but around April, it went a bit crazy, and that's why it's often projects that, when they have significant token unlocks to carry out, take much higher prices, -90%, the example with Arbitrum. So, there are still tokens to unlock. We see it clearly until 2027. Okay, it doesn't mean it can't pump, but automatically, it's something to consider. We have selling pressure here caused by these famous unlocks. So, as I said, all of this, I teach it to you in detail in the program, in the tokenomics module, we go even further than this. There are other things here that I don't detail because sometimes you can have token unlocks, but since the distribution is rather good, it can go well. For Arbitrum, it's not catastrophic, but well, all of this is something to consider, the unlock phases, the different types of unlocks, and so on. All of this, I teach it to you, it's very important. When you do short-term trading, it doesn't matter. Okay? If I have to enter a position today, I exit tomorrow, no importance. However, if I plan to position myself for a few months, it's very, very important. Now, if I do a technical analysis on Arbitrum, well, I've done it, globally on Arbitrum. The level that would need to be re-entered is this one. As long as we don't go above this level, we remain under pressure that is rather bearish.
Next, I had BGB. It was perhaps BGB because I noted BG. Perhaps BGB, but I analyzed BGB not long ago either. Worse, I can talk about it again quickly, but not much has changed. Ah, I did an analysis, we'll talk about it again quickly anyway. Well, BGB is the token of Bitget, which performed very well for a period. Now, it's globally in a range preceded by an upward dynamic. More chance of breaking upwards. Why? Because in a range preceded by an upward dynamic, there's always a higher chance of breaking this range upwards. Proof here. Boom, we form a range at this level. What are we preceded by? An upward dynamic, higher chance of breaking upwards, classic of an uptrend. Here, we don't see it very well, but if I switch to logarithmic, we see our trend clearly. An impulse, a correction phase, an impulse, a correction phase, an impulse, a correction phase. And these correction phases are within lateralization phases, ranges. Okay? This is a wick, we won't consider it too much since we dumped so much, but well, typical here of an uptrend. This range, higher chance of breaking upwards. Now, we are at resistance, we are not in a zone where I will FOMO. Either I wait for a break of this level, a pullback, okay? Or I wait for a dip to the lower end to position myself. So, that's globally for BGB, simple and effective.
And I was asked for an analysis of... I don't know if I noted the cryptos correctly. I have perhaps... like this. Uh, yeah, I think it's like this. Ah, it's me who made a mistake. I don't know if the person who asked me for this altcoin recognizes themselves, but don't hesitate to send it to me again, I'll prioritize it if necessary. H, I don't know at all what this crypto is. From a market cap perspective, where are we? 543. Very good. Circulating supply, we have the entire supply in circulation with a max supply. So, already, from a tokenomics perspective, that's good. Now, perhaps there have been significant unlocks, and we see price and market cap, we've had quite a few token unlocks. This is something to consider here. Okay? And we see it clearly, because if we look at the evolution of the price compared to the evolution of the market cap, here we have an ATH at 26 cents. Here we've had phases of rise, okay, with pumps. When I look at the market cap, we made an ATH at this level. This shows us that there have been quite a few token unlocks. For this, again, this is where tokenomics is sometimes more important than fundamental analysis. Well, in any case, where are we located? We are located near a low, okay, that has been defended several times. We have already marked a bottom at this level. We are coming back to test this low. Yes, we are in a good location. Here, we have a small reversal pattern that is important to note. It's a shame to have this wick that is quite significant. When I look at the daily tunnel, we are rejected inside. We are not far from having a confirmed bottom here. Okay. Now, technically, from a pressure perspective, we can talk about a bottom. It's just that I would have liked a bottom with, yes, in fact, this wick bothers me. It would have been good to close a bit higher. Now, we are pulling back this large zone that was resolved upwards. It's a level that should act as support. We are at a support level, and we shouldn't hide it. We are in a good zone to take longs. Now, we also assume that this altcoin hasn't done much. Okay. When we look at the evolution, there was a significant pump in 2024. Okay. 6x, 7x, even if we push to the wick. Now, since 2024, it hasn't done much. We are rather in a bearish dynamic here. In this kind of chart, if I enter a position, either I put an invalidation below this low, or if I really want to be safe, below this low, and I target quite high levels, which would give me globally this kind of trade. Oops, we're going to look for the stop loss at the other end of the world, giving globally this kind of trade with a risk-reward of about 6-7 points. Then there are partial TPs on this. So, globally, perhaps in the end, I have a risk-reward of 4-5%. Okay. And if I want to play it a bit safer, I put my stop loss below the lowest point. This is a trade that can be taken, okay, with always good risk management, because this trade doesn't have an 80% chance of success. We are here at maybe 15-20%. Okay, so there's a higher chance of taking a stop loss on this kind of trade than a gain. However, automatically, if we get a gain, well, we have a very good risk-reward here.
So, I've said what I wanted to say on this. We will of course continue to watch BTC. Don't hesitate to join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description. And for those who want to take advantage of the current offer, I remind you, €200 off by also clicking on the link in the description. I wish you a very good end of the day and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.