Transcription
Week six, tight ends and quarterbacks. We use this episode to basically preview whatever we want to talk about with these games, these opponents, these matchups. So, we'll kick things off here, Hayden, with the Buffalo Bills at the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaking about Josh Allen, who is your quarterback one, uh, by the way, the Falcons coming off a by-week run cover three at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Josh Allen this season completed 30 of 39 passes for 357 yards and two scores. uh and he'll be facing that on nearly half of the Falcons defensive snaps in this game.
>> I have no negative notes for Joshtown. Weird game this last one, but probably a huge bounceback spot. Everybody agrees, you know, pick and lobby at 23 and uh.3 fantasy points easily the most at uh among quarterbacks. Bill's third highest team total as well. So yeah, the Falcons are a feisty defense. I still think that they're a couple pieces away from like really filling things out, especially at defensive tackle and then uh in the secondary uh their depth over there. I think it's kind of lacking. So, and I think if you pulled up all of the coverage uh stats, not just cover three, I bet all of them would look pretty similar as good as this one.
>> Yeah. No, those ones stand out. Those ones are insane.
>> Uh I think it's a big James Cook week, too.
>> Okay.
>> After he's getting shut down last week, uh I think you know the Falcons gonna get pushed around from the tackle to tackle spot.
Yep.
>> Jaden Daniels is your quarterback, too. This is against the Chicago Bears. Um, I think the Bears are low-key feisty in this game, despite the Commanders being favored by four and a half points here. Um, over the past two games, the Bears have actually done a nice job defensively in terms of stopping fancy quarterbacks. Our buddy Richie pointed out 12 points. Dak Prescott, Gino Smith at 9.8. Uh, and that includes 6.3 and 5.6 yards per attempt.
>> I just don't believe it. you know, they just they're missing, you know, Taquan uh Brisker, Grady Jarrett's on the injury report. Their top corners on injured reserve. Commander fourth and projected points this week. It's actually now tied for third at 27 home game here. Uh the Commander offense is just hitting on Debo, hitting on the running back spot, the left tackle in a better spot than it was. This this team is just filling out better this off seasonason even than like last year. So, I like full faith in Jane Daniels, who I think the injuries also behind him, too. So yeah, JJ McCarthy gave him 22.2 points. Uh I think Jane Daniels is going to take care of business.
Simple prediction for this game. Jane Daniels has his highest rushing yard performance of the season. Now so far that's been 2121 and five yards. That's it. It's at 45 and a half in the pick and lobby. So they agree with me. The reason being is this Bears defense with Dennis Allen runs a high rate of man coverage. Uh, and so you're going to see Jaden Daniels, if healthy, and even if not healthy,
>> move around quite a bit.
>> On that note, Nate Tai has had some good metrics uh on Football 301 where the scramble rate and the scramble success rate in the NFL has never been higher. Highest of all time.
>> I was going to bring that up with Mahomes, but you beat me to it. Speaking of, that also applies to Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback three against the Detroit Lions. My first note, QBs are scrambling at a higher rate than ever, and Mahomes has been a weapon there. I mean, three scrambling touchdowns so far this season. Uh, it's an added gear and an added lever that he is pulling now earlier than ever.
>> Yeah, you get a safety further away from the ball. Linebackers a little bit smaller. Big Patrick Mahomes and other quarterbacks are starting to run through some tackles as well. Also, they do that stupid like, I'm slowing up out of bounds. Nope, I'd Mahomes is the best at that. So, we're getting all of that. And then on top of that, Patrick Mahomes passing numbers, you know, awesome. again, he's third in quarterback fantasy points this year and that includes behind uh Lamar Jackson on a per game basis. So really is the the quarterback too uh right now. The Lions, they're missing their top three outside corners. Kirby Joseph, there's free safeties on the injury report. Zack Cunningham, a linebacker is on the injury report. Other players are on injured reserve as well. It's it's a total smash spot right now. And I think that Patrick Mahomes, despite the record, is playing like elite football. Like they've lost some like wonky games without Worthy. the offensive line is kind of figuring things out. All that stuff is starting to settle down. More downfield reps is certainly good as well. So, I'm ready for Mahomes to go crazy in fantasy like he did back in like the Tyreek Hill game.
>> I think Taran Arnold was playing well in the game that he left. Uh, and as soon as he left, it went to like Trey Flowers and Amique Robinson's made some plays this year, too. And there's one more guy I can't remember that they have. Anyways, they're pulling people off the street to start a quarterback at this point.
Yep.
>> And that's not fun here. Okay, just among these three to make it a quality four, a Mount Rushmore, some might say, of fantasy quarterbacks, Daniel Jones is your quarterback four against the Arizona Cardinals. He's actually quarterback 11 in consensus rankings.
>> Why?
>> Uh, well, you tell me. Why does he deserve to be quarterback four?
>> The Colts are fourth in projected points at home against the Cardinals. Daniel Jones is second in quarterback sneaks. He has the most quarterback sneak touchdowns now tied with Jaylen Herzburg including Thursday Night Football. They're third in neutral pass rate this month. So they're passing the ball. He gets quarterback sneak opportunities and they're projected for a lot of points and the Cardinals defense is mediocre. Uh maybe they get Will Johnson for this one, but uh even if he is out there, it's I think it's a pretty beatable defense.
So
>> Arizona is 26th in pressure rate so far this season. And like if you keep it down to, I don't know, being the fifth or sixth worst in terms of pressuring the quarterback, then that means Daniel Jones will only have to be under pressure about
>> four or five or six drop backs this entire game. And he's made good on those moments so far this season. That's for sure.
>> Uh he only had to throw five passes in the second half
>> of last week. I mean, they've been leading by so much.
>> Yeah,
>> this offense is running at the highest level just like the other three that we've talked about.
>> You're not joking. there. He's his offense actually been the best.
>> Baker Mayfield is your quarterback five against the 49ers. You know, hand up spent all summer that regression is certainly going to hit Baker Mayfield at some point. It hasn't so far when it comes to quarterback passes.
>> This was supposed to be the bad month. You know, you don't have your left tackle, your right guard, your right tackle to start the season and all of a sudden, uh, you know, without them, he's handling things. Losing Chris Godwin, it sounds like a big deal. It's really not. like the version that we were getting with with Chris Godwin. Like you can make an argument that Sterling Shepard is better right now anyways as the the second target. He's scrambling a ton as usual. And yeah, he's quarterback five in fantasy points per game right now despite all of the bad stuff. The 49ers aren't going to have Nick Bos, so we know that. Yet Goss Mados, their other edge rusher, he's also not going to play. So he should have time in the pocket. I don't think the 49ers have that many dudes up front to to rush the passer at least. Drake May this past week was eight of 10 on throws of 10 or more yards down the field. And you look at the New Orleans Saints who he'll be playing this game on the road against. The Saints are 25th in completion rate on those same throws so far this season. So, uh, I'm in. Drake May, what a season so far. I've loved to see it.
>> Yeah, he he's just a total monster. He's maturing so quickly and we haven't even seen the crazy fun out of Drake May where he's just, you know, scrambling and quarterback design stuff. He's he's only 13 in rushing yards at the position, only eighth in in carries. The reason being is because the pass game has looked so functional. So, like I said with Steph Diggs where I had a pretty aggressive ranking with him, I think this is a a matchup against a pretty static Brandon Staley cover four too deep zone defense where Josh McDaniels who's seen everything pretty much more than any offensive coordinator in the league. I think he's going to be able to pick apart this uh team. I do think the Steph Diggs just provides some yards after the catch, juice, some man coverage juice. And we'll see if uh the Saints are actually going to get Chase Young or one of their starting corners in here. Jordan Love is your quarterback seven. This is against the Cincinnati Bengals. Uh if you want to talk about point spreads, which I can cite moving forward here, uh it's a good place to start because the Packers are 14 and a half point home favorites here against Cincinnati. Anything you want to add here? I mean, the Bengals struggle to create pressure and when they don't pressure, they get torched on every single throw basically,
>> right? Some of you guys, if you live in the right state, have point spreads and team totals and all that fun stuff. So check out the map and make sure you're on the underdog app. More stuff than ever right now. So for Jordan Love, yeah, that 14-point spread is massive. Packers highest team total of the week. They already ruled out Shamar Stewart, their first round edge rusher on the Bengals side of it. There's lots of injuries to kind of keep track of on the Packers front. Um their left tackle got injured midweek, but there's a chance Aaron Banks and Zack Tom, the right guard and right tackle, return here. They both been limited in practice. Either way, it's not like that the Bengals have like a stud defense. So, they just have the game plan for Trey Hendrickson and win their one-on-one matchups on the perimeter. I think they're very capable.
>> Caleb Williams, your quarterback. Eight dueling top quarterbacks in their class. Caleb versus Jaden Daniels uh in this matchup a year ago according to our buddy Richie Bar. Dan Quinn blitzed. Caleb on 37.5% of his dropbacks. That's the second highest blitz rate Williams has faced so far in his career. And even without blitzing, I think so far this year the commanders are generating pressure like at an above average rate in comparison to previous seasons. So while I think the Bears can be really feisty here as three and a half, four and a half point underdogs, uh that is on my radar that he'll be tested here with I'll be a questionable offensive line so far.
>> I think the promising part is I think he's ready for the test. you know, I just think he's been playing so much better and coming out of the buy, I feel like there's going to be much more condensed in what they're offering in the playbook and just going to double down on the right players. And they have a good defensive line, but the secondary has been pretty hit and miss in general. So, I also just like like the way Caleb Williams getting outside the pocket and making some plays. He looks very fast out there. So, I think that's been a quiet improvement in his game. The accuracy is a little bit better. I think a a big part of the accuracy down the field was so many of those throws were outside of the pocket last year where there's a more of his downfield intermediate throws are with his feet set instead of being flushed out which is help. He still has some crazy misses which I don't understand but uh in general I think it's going to be a spot where he's pressed. This team's also passing the ball more in neutral situations because more data comes in that they can't run the ball and I don't think that's going to change. So, he's gonna scramble more because they're going to pass more and they're expected to lose and the Commanders play really fast and the Bears are playing a little bit faster uh than the Lions did under Ben Johnson.
So,
>> is this the first season that we have three double Monday night football games? Like, again, we have two Monday Night Football games. One's at 7:15 Eastern, one's at 8:15 Eastern. This is the second of the two. I was going to say, well, in an island game, what could go wrong in terms of narratives of Jaden versus Caleb and, you know, seasonl long sweeping conclusions based on single performances? But, you know, Bills and Falcons fans won't even be watching this game right now.
>> Yeah. Half Island, I guess.
>> Yes.
>> More people are going to watch this one, though.
>> I mean, both are really nice matchups in comparison to looking at like the one o'clock window on Sunday. Dear Lord, it is dreadful.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Dak Prescott. Speaking of one of those one:00 games, uh, Panthers, Cowboys, massive total of 49 and a half with the Cowboys on the road projected for 26 and a quarter points. Panthers defense quite vanilla in their coverages and their shells. Uh, Dak Prescott torches single high. Ediro Ever's defense runs a ton of single high. So Dak against a pass rush that lacks like that I think one true speed rusher uh could have a real real nice chance to again continue this like MVP campaign that he's putting out there.
>> Just keep dicing them up. The ground game has been excellent and they're in good situations to pass the ball and Shotti is doing an excellent job. George Pickkins has stepped up to the plate. So I I agree with you. I think this is a beautiful spot for Dak Prescott. He's already the quarterback eight in fantasy points per game and did this just on my radar. There was for about like 30 games in a row after press Prescott came back from that ankle injury. Would not scramble at all. Last week he scrambled as much as he he's had since coming off that ankle injury. And I thought he actually looked kind of decent at it. Picked up a bunch of key first downs. That's what separates Dak Prescott from being like the quarterback 12 on the season to being the quarterback six. He's got the passing numbers to to do that. But that's just something on my mind where if we get a couple more first downs and that all of a sudden turns into a red zone scramble and stuff, it's just been a very long time since we've seen Dak Prescott do that. And I did see that on tape uh last week.
>> They finally let Derrick Brown play more and more pass rushing snaps and he got a huge sack on to Valoa to help that comeback. Uh you would like to think that he would be able to beat one of these backup offensive linemen in a critical situation here too. So that would be part of it. Uh, by the way, Dallas Cowboys, many of your fans obviously live in Texas. As Hayden mentioned, Underdog has spreads and totals and team picks. We're in the prediction market game. Again, use promo code the show. Click the link in the description down below. Make a $5 fantasy entry to get $100 in fantasy bonus funds. You can make team picks right now in 16 states, including California, Georgia, Texas. underdog available in 41 of 50 states right now. So go and play on the dog app at this very moment. You couldn't do this a couple years ago. You can do it right now. Matthew Stafford, talk to me at the Baltimore Ravens. He's going to play incredibly well. He's going to have a fantastic game. The issue here, Hayden, is the Rams most likely will score four touchdowns. We just need three of them to basically go in Matthew Stafford's direction in order for him to be a top 10 quarterback this week. It's a fun game to play, but I'm with you. Just I don't think they're going to be pushed in this one. And there's some weather concerns here. Matthew Stafford, I believe, is the only starting quarterback with negative rushing yards on the season so far. So, that always, you know, is holds him back to some degree, but he's playing out of his mind. Damonte Adams has been a huge upgrade. And I I have full faith in the Rams offense in general. It's just we're flipping coins. Is it going to be Kairen Williams and Blake Corm in the end zone or is it going to be Dvonte Adams and and Puka?
>> Next is Justin Herbert at the Miami Dolphins. Um, only one top 10 scoring week on the season for Justin Herbert. That was obviously week one. Dolphins invested so much into their defensive line over the past two, three seasons. again going
>> the phrase you would like to think that the one week that team could step up and finally rush the passer of the season would be against the backups of the backups that the Chargers are sporting along the offensive line.
>> You would think, but we shall see. I think they're going to get the ball out quickly. I don't think they're going to run the ball very much. We've seen them just drop back a ton and they have two underneath receivers and Keenan and Lad Mani to to figure that part out. So, I think Justin Herbert's going to be fine. He also has just been scrambling a lot more this year. He's eighth in rushing yards among quarterbacks right now. Also wanted to mention even though the Chargers are banged up, the Dolphins are equally banged up, too. Their secondary has been completely decimated. They're starting a safety at nickel corner. Tyrell Dodson, their linebackers in concussion protocol. He hasn't been practicing. So, the pass rush and defensive tackles have not stepped up despite tons of draft capital. But they've been the third worst uh fantasy def or the third worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks. So, it's kind of like bad on bad right now. And I'll just put my faith into Justin Herbert at that point.
>> Yeah. I mean, four of the five quarterbacks that the Dolphins have faced have been top five scorers at the position.
>> Oh my gosh. I do wonder if like the lack of a positive checkdown outlet is going to be a big deal here for Justin Herbert because Martin Hampton has been a big positive there in terms of being available catching the pass breaking one or two tackles creating some you know second and 10 into third and fours. Can you get that with Kamani Vidal? Can you get that with Naim Hines? Hassan Haskins you're not going to get that very much. So that is just another issue on top of the offensive line here. I would like to see get Aronda Gatson on the field, go into empty, throw like half field reads where it's it's lad makoni on slant routes and just take advantage of that stuff. I I think it's be quick time to throw lots of bass attempts and he'll end up being pretty solid.
>> By now, I'm sure you've heard of chubbies. They are the best elastic, stressy shorts that you can wear for any type of situation. I just brought them down to Florida on a quick vacation prior to the NFL season. Had the swim trunks, had the shorts, wore them for everything. And would you look at that, folks? For a limited time, our friends at Chubbies are giving our listeners $10 off with promo code the show at chubbiesshorts.com/theshow. And that's $10 off your order with promo code the show, which includes the NFL collection. By the way, Chubbies now has the best NFL apparel. So, if you're not a jersey person, you can then wear the shorts to support your team. So, again, you can support our show and tell them we sent you. Express yourself and level up your game day wardrobe with Chubbies. Also, as I mentioned, Chubbies is the ultimate football apparel brand. So much so that they created their own fantasy football league. George KD, Ian Rapaort, and others have come together to assemble the Chubbies League on NFL Fantasy. Each week, the top five scorers will win a chance at Chubbies polos and shorts combo with their team's logo on it. The grand champion gets a chance at the ultimate fan experience, a five city, five stadium NFL game tour with a plus one, while the fantasy flop faces a hilarious and unforgettable punishment only chubbies could pull off. So head to chubbieshorts.com/thechubbies league to learn more and have some fun. Get ready for the most outrageous fantasy football season of your life. Bon Knicks at the New York Jets is your quarterback 12. If we look at this Broncos team, which by the way, they're on the road. I think this is Tottenham Hotspur Stadium or Wembley, one of the two over in London. Um the Broncos overseas are seven and a half point favorites right now against this Jets team. Uh he's had issues with pressure, completing about 47 48% of his passes, four and a half yards per attempt. But the Jets, also a team that's invested a lot in their pass rushing, 31st in pressure rate so far on just 26% of snaps.
>> I think Jermaine Johnson is returning here, so that would be their top pressure guy. So that would be uh somewhat of a big deal. Bonus just got to be playing better. You know, he got Courtland Sudden comeback mode in the second half of that that game. So that's promising. Yeah, the Jets secondary linebacker group is just pretty bad. They got S Gardner and pretty much nobody else at safety, corner, linebacker, and that's that tends to be a problem.
>> He needs to throw down the field a bit more. We see these shot plays dialed up, but even just him, I'm not talking 20 plus yards on the field. Like
>> just 26% of his passes have been 10 or more yards, which is 31st right now. And then he's only completing 37% of those 26% of passes right now. It's a get right spot. It's another one to like continue this week on for the rest of the season and maybe we head into year three Bon Knicks being okay just don't play him in September because the first two seasons have been bad in September. Jared Goff is next for you as your quarterback 13. A really fun match up here. I mean it's Mahomes on one side, Goff on the other. They play the game extremely differently, but they both put up offense, they both put up points. Uh Goff here can hit his back foot and totally rip it. And by the way, this Chiefs pass rush, including Chris Jones, just like has not jump started so far this season.
>> Yeah, they got Carl Loftess and and Jones, but everybody else is just not getting it done. And they can only do so much with Spags and the blitzes and stuff against this team because Goff and these guys, they've seen it all. So, you kind of have to let your your boys win. I just think the secondary is not as good either. You know, just missing like the Justin Reed types, not having Legio Sneed as your quarterback, too. Like those type of changes over the last couple years. I do think it's not like the the really strong defense that it once was. So, I still think there's plenty of advantages for for Jared Goff here. So, I understand why they're underdogs even though the you can make the argument the Lions are the best team in football. I just think the Chiefs are peing right now and I think it's going to be a close game. Who Who do you got? We typically don't make predictions about games and stuff. It just this is a this is a big one.
>> I think the public the majority would be on the Chiefs. I think I'm going to go the Lions here.
>> The Lions?
>> I think I'm going to go the Lions. I I like the Chiefs, but I'm expecting I if I had
>> Yeah, it seems to be a pretty good strategy. Uh I think it's gonna just go higher.
>> Not so far this season. They're two and three.
>> Let this thing play out. Let this thing play out. I
>> But so far this season, it hasn't been a good strategy if we're being honest.
>> Well, I haven't made predictions about uh this part of the schedule. Wait, you you get Rasheed Rice back and then uh let let's
>> Well, I know that's what I'm waiting for. Trust me, I'm I'm really waiting for Rashid Rice to come back. The numbers are starting to look good and I think Mahomes is playing crazy. I like the higher. If I had to pick one thing, I just think that both these offenses have pretty big advantage over the defenses.
>> Uh, per the worksheet, Jared Goff using play action 32% of dropbacks. Only Daniel Jones is doing that more often. And against play action, the Chiefs are 31st in pass rating allowed, 10 yards per pass attempt. They're allowing and a 75% completion rate.
>> Reeves is just out of his mind with all this these numbers. Does the man sleep?
>> Justin Fields versus Denver. Your quarterback 14 on the road. See if he plays better, you know, thousands of miles away than he does in New Jersey. Uh Denver has 14 more sacks plus turnovers than their opponents so far this season, which is the second most in the league. And now they get this offense.
>> Yeah, we're going to need these fourth quarter points, man. You know, we're going to need a lot of scrambles. We're going to need a lot of it. This was a very difficult ranking because I believe Fields on a per game basis is like the quarterback three or four and I got him ranked way down here. The team total is so low. It's at 18. And I know it's been that low for some other outings, too. And he he makes the the most of it. But the Broncos are also third best against fantasy quarterbacks. We know how strong their defense is. Jaylen Herz and Justin Herbert were held to under 20 fantasy points and those guys can both run a little bit too. So, it makes me nervous. Like to me when you have a shutdown corner against your only guy past that you can throw the ball to right now aside from Mason Taylor who will get you in the tight ends part makes me nervous. So pick him lobby agrees. He's at 16.8 fantasy points. Everybody else that I've ranked ahead of him is also higher in the pick lobby. So this could be one of these things where you you start the other guy and if you are a big Justin Fields guy then you could take a take a higher here. But it's it's the worst spot he's been in.
>> Justin Fields in consensus rankings though is at quarterback 14. So, they're much closer to you than having him where
>> where he's been so far this season. Yeah. You mentioned the fourth quarter stuff. This is a true don't watch until 11:30. Uh if you have during our show fantasy lineup,
>> that's during our show. Don't watch then either.
>> Have both on. Uh over the past two weeks, I mentioned this in the wide receiver show. Fields has been the quarterback 21 in scoring per game through the first three quarters and then the highest scoring quarterback in the fourth quarter. I just think it's kind of difficult to bank on garbage time when you're 0 and5 and facing the Denver Broncos because that just means you've been terrible versus, you know, some other defenses that you can post garbage time on that they played so far this season. Next is Sam Darnold. Quarterback 15 for you at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Another really fun one. Uh right now Sam Darnold off of play action averaging a league high 19 yards per completion. We talk about every week when we discuss the Seahawks. They have their identity. They know who they are. It's going to be 12 or 11 or 21 personnel under center, then downfield shots off of that said. So, uh, it's gonna be fun. I can't wait for this one.
>> It's going to be great. He He looked exactly like the Minnesota Vikings Sam Darnold. It's the same setup, you know, the
>> it's the offensive line has been hit and miss and he's just relentlessly throwing the ball down the field. He has basically not missed a throw the entire season down the field. It's It's shocking what what he's doing. way down the field and some of it's even out of structure too. So, credit where too I think that he's he's definitely emerging to be in that top 10 quarterback real life conversation. I think I think we're getting getting to that point. The numbers and so far this year definitely make him way way higher than that. So, now with all that said, he's playing well. The team knows who they are.
>> That has and does not translate into really fantasy points so far. He has one week of quarterback 10 and then one week of quarterback two and then others that are outside of like the top 18, the top 20 in quarterback weeks. So, right, it's just not a styling in terms of the volume to make him a huge fantasy asset, which is fine. I'm not saying that's a a bad thing.
>> Yeah,
>> just how the position is scored.
>> We we need to fix the scoring in fantasy. You know, we you can play the game for now, but really the the quarterback should be scoring more points through the air than the the the proportions are just way off. Let's just be honest. It's insane. talked about this before. I agree. Okay, Trevor Lawrence, quarterback 16 against the Seattle Seahawks. I mentioned this, I think in Stats versus Film, and I mentioned this in the wide receiver show, but Liam Cohen is doing really good things for this team. Obviously, they are 4- one, but he has changed how Trevor Lawrence, at least statistically in a spreadsheet, is attacking defenses. Last year, he was number two in 20 plus yard pass attempts. This year, he is 30th. Right. Last year with the Bucks, Liam Cohen had Baker Mayfield attacking the 10 to 19 yard range relentlessly and then Baker was 31st in those 20 plus yard attempts. Guess where Baker Mayfield ranks this year in 20 plus yard attempts? First, it's
>> got to be a lot. It's got to be a lot higher. I've seen a mecha in the end zone a lot.
>> Correct. It's number one. So, it's a Liam Cohen thing, which is fine. It is interesting. that's also on my radar that Cam Wolf, who is quite close to this franchise, re continuously says on TV, well, the deep shots are coming. Um, and they have paid off over the last two weeks. We saw a BTJ one, we saw a Travis Hunter one in each of the last two games. And so, I just want like that lever to be pulled a bit more often, that button to be pressed more often. But, I'm not sure if Liam wants to do that.
>> I think that I think they will do it. I I believe in those reports, too. I think Are those all percentage uh numbers there? I think they throw a lot of screens, so I think that kind of makes it a little bit wonky. If he removed screens, I would be curious to see what those end up turning out to be. But I've noticed Travis Hunter's routes in the first couple weeks a lot more, you know, like gadgety, you know, option routes. And I'm starting to see more post routes and stuff, not even just the one that he caught, like just the ones he's not even being targeted on. You're seeing a little bit more downfield stuff, which is which is encouraging. So, we'll see. Uh, the Seahawks great defense in general. The Julian Love free safety. He's been banged up. Deon Witherspoon slot corner. He's been banged up. That's that's a big deal just because, you know, that's where Travis Hunter is going to be lining up. So, I like your call about Travis Hunter playing more wide receiver snaps because of matchups here. And I hope they can get it done.
>> The other part of this, Robert Hany, the center who's played at a high level since coming over from the Bucks. DNP on Wednesday, DNP on Thursday. I'm assuming he's just not going to play with a hamstring issue.
>> So, that's a new center. and this Seattle team, their best players are on the interior when we talk about Byron Murphy, when we talk about Leonard Williams. So, that could be a bit of an issue here in comparison to this over performing Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line so far this season.
>> Supposed to be a close game. I think I like the Seahawks a little bit.
>> I do like the Seahawks as well. M Jones, who quarterback 17 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I mean, so far this season as a starter, M. Jones, I believe, has finished as quarterback 8, 17, and quarterback 10. Uh, I mentioned that when Todd Bulls faced Brock Pery in this 49ers offense last year, he blitzed Party 44% of the time. I doubt that number goes too much lower when you're facing someone like M. Jones in comparison to Brock Pury.
>> It might be M. Jones in a knee brace. Remember M. Jones like nearly throwing up and hallucinating on the sideline playing through all those injuries. So, yeah, we'll see how in good of shape he's in here. We got Ricky Pieraw out, George KD out, Jawan Jennings in. That's those are my assumptions right now. Tampa Bay also dealing with injuries too though. Kalaji Ky's on into reserve. Zion McCollum and Benjamin Morrison at corner. They haven't been practicing. Jacob Parish a rookie has been playing well but might be playing out of position in this one. And Tampa Bay seventh worst in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks just because they're so good at run defense. So I think you're going to see a lot of, you know, quick hitting stuff from from M. Jones. And I trust Shanahan with Mack. I think Max's playing pretty darn well.
>> Next up is Tua Tongue of Aloa against the Los Angeles Chargers. You know, seeing these two quarterbacks pop up as matchups makes you remember the wars that were being had on, let's say, lesser content programs out there of selecting Tua ahead of Justin Herbert. And uh I think the answer to that conundrum has been solved.
>> I mean, Mac versus Tua, it's let's let's have that conversation. No, I'm mostly trolling. They're they're actually pretty pretty dang similar really. Um, the Chargers have a very good defense and they limit the big plays. So, I think it used to be a lot of quick hitting stuff and hopefully they get some yards after the catch threats, but they got two freaks, you know, to match speedwise with Henley and Derwin James. It's, you know, it's just tough match up for for Tua.
>> The Chargers defense did their best this week to maybe address the lack of Khalil Mack out there trading for Odaf Ooway. Uh, I'm not saying he's like a premier pass rusher, but at least he has some athleticism and some speed and some juice out there, and they've been lacking at that without Cleo Mack on the field. Next, as your quarterback 19, this is Bryce Young on the opposite end of that Dallas Cowboys matchup. Uh, mentioned it in the wide receivers ranking show. Hopefully, you tune in to that. Everyone's calling this a smash spot for everyone involved. The Panthers are going to play an entirely backup version of the center right guard and right tackle spot. And the right tackle one is the biggest issue because that popped up this week after Taylor Motton finished last week. The drop down to Yash Nyman is a massive massive downgrade. And to be honest, while it was a bit of a butt of a joke early to start the season, the Cowboys pass rush kind of woke up prior to the by-week
>> or I shouldn't say prior to the by-week, just in recent weeks,
>> right? I agree. It see people that covered the Panthers closely, their fans, they're saying that the center is like really not really a downgrade.
>> Nope.
>> I I would say the right guard like you losing Robert Hunt, that's a downgrade. I don't care if the right guard's handling things well. Like that's still a downgrade. And Taylor Motton's a big downgrade like you said. So even if the center, let's call it a wash or you can even say it's an upgrade, right guard, right tackle is a big downgrade. So that that makes me a little bit nervous. That said, they're still projected for above average points, which we don't typically say. And the Cowboys can't stop anybody through the air. So I still think this is like good matchup. It could have been better with though.
>> That that's what I'm saying. I'm not saying don't believe that this could be a really nice one. It just might not be as clean of a spot, right,
>> as previously perceived. Uh yeah, I mean Dallas did pressure Jordan Love on 41% of his drop backs and Justin Fields on 47% of his drop backs. Next is Gino Smith, quarterback 20. Uh Gina Smith is pressuring himself at this moment and his job security moving forward. Now he gets the Tennessee Titans. Uh these offense right now, Hayden, are 29th and 31st in points per drive across the league. This is not what Pete Carroll signed up for. This is not what Chip Kelly signed up for. This is not what Gino and Tom Brady and everyone else sign signed up for, but you know, his issues are pretty obvious and easy. Stop throwing crippling interceptions. Stop skipping some reads out there. Uh he doesn't really look comfortable or maybe full uh concentration on every single snap, but the Tennessee Titans are a great deodorant in order to fix that this weekend.
>> Ardan Key is on the injury report. Tandre Sweat has been out for a while, so you're kind of going tip for tat without having Colton Miller here. Yeah, he can get hot at any point. He can also get very cold, too. So, with with the people saying that he's going to get benched, look, like anything's possible.
>> He has $18 million guaranteed next year.
>> Next year. $18 million guaranteed the following season. So, we're I think we're a long way away from that.
>> He's at 15 and three/4ers fantasy points right now in the pick. I mean, 224 passing yards is still quite high. I know this is the Titans, but that's still
>> He's 11 the passing yards this year. He's It's the interceptions and it's they're bad ones. They real bad.
>> Yes.
>> I'm not diminishing. He's moving the football only to throw it to the other team.
>> Correct. Just throw it to your own team. Now, it's also difficult when Well, is to get Michael Mayer back. So, that's a that's a win, too.
>> That is.
>> Okay, Spencer Rattler against the New England Patriots is up next. Rattler first win last week of the season. Rattler can move around, can be nimble, can be frisky, can be feisty. Uh, this Patriots pass rush is quite fun, especially the end tier and their run defense is excellent, too. So, this is again Rattler in a big spot.
>> He's one of these guys that has some actual raw traits. Remember, he's a top 10 overall recruit out of high school. Consensus fivear. He's got a live arm. Could run around it like enough. Um, so the more he plays football, the better he's going to get. You know, he was so inexperienced. He had a lot of problems in college just reading things out and he was under pressure a lot. So hopefully that settles down. The the Saints offensive line's been pretty whack. Uh a lot of a lot of injuries and young players. So that makes me nervous because the Patriots have a lot of depth uh in the front seven. They've got Christian Gonzalez in the secondary. So not a clean spot for Spencer Rley. I think the Patriots defense should be at least league average uh from this point moving forward.
>> Yeah, this one might come back to bite me, but I did take the Saints the plus three and a half at home here. just leaning into my own
>> that hook.
>> Yeah.
>> Michael Pennix, quarterback 22 against the Buffalo Bills. Uh he must feel like he's playing an entirely different sport than he did at the University of Washington. He is not throwing the football down the field at all this season. Uh and on top of it, he's not completing those passes either. He's completing just 17 of 45 of his throws, 10 plus yards. That's 28th in the NFL.
>> Yeah, it's to me just a slow offense over the middle setting those yards after the catch ability and their cornerback depth things pretty lackluster. So, I'm curious. They get Drake London back in the slot like they did heading uh into the by-week. No Matt Milano uh in on the practice report right now either, their linebacker. So, yeah, it's a fine spot for him. This offense just like so unique. It's it's pretty much the Kurt Cousins offense. Like what has been different? you know, the like stylistically it's, you know, pistol get the ball out, throw it to the sideline a bunch and um not my favorite offense to watch despite how much talent they have. You know, it's just
>> they really needed the by-week when they had it. You know,
>> that is true
>> to really lean into it. I mean, Bean Robinson has been excellent so far this season, but because they just play in pistol all the time,
>> the Falcons have the second lowest play action rate in the NFL. I I know you don't need to run the ball effectively in order to have play action pass, but I'm sure it doesn't hurt. And then if you're so good in that department and running the football,
>> wouldn't you think that also you'd be very successful and like one of the highest rates of play action in the league? And they're just not doing it.
>> Yeah. The the studies are on the pistol is
>> the time it takes that you're that you're showing play action is less than under center because you have less less distance, which means that the linebackers aren't also crashing down. So play action effectiveness out of the pistol is worse and that's why teams don't actually run pistol.
>> I'll be very interested. I'll do it for SAS versus film this week. Just see the differences in the first four games versus this singular development and if anything changed for them during the bye-week. Aaron Rogers is the quarterback 23 for you. Sorry I have him in his Jets uniform here. This against the Cleveland Browns. We joked this might be the quickest time to throw in the NFL this season against you know Miles Garrett.
>> Yeah,
>> Graham, all these guys up front.
>> And could you blame him? It would it would be me, too, you know, at 41 years old or whatever. So, yeah, I don't have a lot of faith in this one. We'll see if Calvin Austin suits up. Lots of I think they get Jaylen Warren back and you got Kenny Gainwell. So, and you got all of these tight ends. They're using crazy tight end formations. Big boy Darnell Washington's out there. So, I think it's going to be a limited offense in terms of downfield attempts. I think his accuracy has been uh a lot worse now versus the last couple seasons even. So, we'll see. They they're getting DK Mechaf used in interesting ways. But aside from that, I I think this offense is one of these, you know, one of the units I think just take a step back versus what their record is showing through five weeks. But make maybe that's classic Mike Tomlin and never doubt it.
>> Obviously, this Browns team runs a decently high rate of man coverage. Rogers is averaging a league low four yards per pass attempts against man coverage. I don't know guys. Next, Jacobe Brassette for you is quarterback 24. We are expecting him to start this game against the Indianapolis Colts. Your thoughts just overall, what does this change for the Cardinals, which has been a majorly hot and cold offense that has failed to like put together four quarters of positive action so far?
>> Well, Kyler does make legit plays with his legs. So you remove all of that, but you are going to swap that out with probably more throws over the middle, maybe like more under center play action, just you know like dig routes out of Jacobe. There was a time where I thought Jacobe Brassette was an actual starter, but since then like he just hasn't played all that well. Remember like the stint ahead of Drake May was not all that pretty. So I'm pretty nervous. I think that there's big big problems with the Cardinals. Tip Ryman out. They can't block anybody up front. their offensive lines and now what's the identity? You're just gonna be a I think more of just like a pass first versus first
offense. Do you have the horses for that? Do you have the outside speed for that? I don't know. I think it's this team's going to feel very constricted and without Kyler Murray, um, even if Kyler Murray plays, if it's footspring Kyler Murray, he's not making the plays out of structure, then you're just going to feel like this offense is going to be struggling to have a lot of downfield success.
Dylan Gabriel, the Brown starter at the Pittsburgh Steelers here. Uh, again on the road, his first start here in the US, I believe. Um, you know, there were some positives and negatives to Dylan Gabriel's play in that, you know, he gets the ball out quick. You can tell he like knows where to go with the football. Just the football getting to the right person in an area where he could catch the football was a bit of an issue. And I'm not saying that Gabriel is a statue, but at the same time, I am calling him shorter and not a scrambler and maybe not overly athletic on top of it. So, like there's some limitations to him. Uh, but at the same time, I don't think it's any worse than it's probably better than what Joe Flacco was putting out there. That's for sure. I'll say it's better. He He's a version of Tua. I don't think it's all that different. I think Tua's accuracy is better, though. I think that's like the big difference. And Dylan Gabriel has this like little maybe like overcompensating for his lack of arm strength and like really wants to whip it in there and I think that's when the ball can kind of spray. So those are things to pay attention to. Steelers have been getting lit up though. They've coverage bust deep throws over the middle they've really struggled against. They're fourth worst against fantasy quarterbacks as well. They don't have Jaylen Ramsay too. So I I don't think this is like some studly defense. I I do think that TJ Watt can get after this offensive line dealing with some injuries. Um, so that's going to be the thing to watch. But I think the secondaries could be could be had.
>> What if this is the week for Cam Ward to rank inside the top 24? You know, what if against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that is Max Crosby and everyone else, >> uh, they get JC Laam back, you know, >> they have both their tackles. >> That's a big deal. >> That is >> what is also been a negatively big deal is that 56% of the Titans series and sets of downs have reached third down. That's 31st in the league. And the Titans, once getting to third down, have conferred a league worse 29% of their third down so far this season.
>> Throw him ahead of Jacob Brand Gabriel. I like it. I like it. >> There we go. >> You know, >> had to do it. >> Put him ahead of Rogers. Put him ahead of Rogers. That's Come on. >> All right, I like it. >> That's better. >> Okay, we'll keep moving. Cooper Rush against the Los Angeles Rams. I I made a bigger spiel against for Zay Flowers, I should say, in the wide receiver show. That is no indication of moving Cooper Rush here, though. That is just an individual Z Flowers versus this uh Rams defensive back group.
>> In my poor super flex, I got Lamar and Brock Party, so I'm scrambling. I picked up Cooper Rush and then I also picked up Tyler Huntley because I did think there was a chance that they were going to swap him out. So, at one point, I had three Ravens quarterbacks. That's never a good sign.
>> Okay, we'll close this out with Joe Flacco who is throwing to your wide receiver nine this week. uh as quarterback 28 against the Green Bay Packers. Again, um he played for the 32nd best offensive line per all the metrics out there with the Cleveland Browns and now he's going to the 31st ranked offensive line here with the Cincinnati Bengals. Uh what was notable to me is when they made this trade and it was very obvious that Joe Flacco was going to be the starter, the line only moved by half a point. Hey, we'll take that half a point. That means more yardage, >> you know. Hey, that's first week. Joe Flacco flying, you know, just commercial just trying to get there. Uh move move him ahead of Cooper Rush. Cooper Rush can get benched. Joe Flacco is not going to get benched here, you know. Let's make some movement at the end here.
>> All right, that's going to do it. Well, we'll go to tight ends real quick. >> Um I'll just read through these. You're tighten one through six. Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, Tyler Warren, then a little bit of a tear break, maybe Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Tucker Craft. This is a sweet top six and features a couple players that definitely were not in the top six conversation to open the season, especially Darren Waller, but I even throw in Jake Ferguson in there, too, >> right? Yeah. I mean, Jake Ferguson's so obvious. I think Darren Waller some people are going to have some like how much of this is real? I think it's very real. Like you said on the recap show, he was limited to 30 snaps, just dominated. I think the snap count's going to go way up here and he's getting a bunch of first read targets. So, I like Darren Waller. Travis Kelce looks much better with the team total going up. Same thing with Tucker Craft. And then I think like the new big name for me is just Mason Taylor. And I don't know where he is in consensus rankings, but I have him at tight at tight end seven. I think a lot of people play full PPR and I think he's going to be a full PPR monster in general. His usage is all the way up. He had 15 expected points last week. And if we think that Certan's going to be all over Garrett Wilson, then you got to throw the ball to somebody else. And the somebody else is going to be Mason Taylor. So I I can't promise touchdowns, but if you're in a full PPR scam it up situation, I think that Mason Taylor is looking pretty solid.
>> Yep. The rest of that 7 through 12, Mason Taylor, Hunter Henry, Don Concincaid, Sam Laaporta, Evan Ingram, and then Jake Tongas, who looks like an actor playing a football player in a movie.
>> Not a bad spot to be in in life. If you're saying, I got the looks of an actor, but I'm also an NFL player. You know, that's Greg Olsson. Calpits, David and Jooku, Zackertz, Harold Fannon. So, two Browns tight ends here. Then we get my guy AJ Barner and then sadly Jawan Johnson all the way down this list. It was a really nice like opening four weeks here for Jawan. And I'm afraid this is like our first, >> oh, we pick him up after week one and are expecting a lot. We get that a lot for the first four weeks and then we almost have to like set him out to the distance already. I think the reason why Jawan ranked so low is Taesm Hill is just limiting how many pass attempts there are because all his plays are Wildcat nonsense. That's also going to trickle down to the goal line packages and I think it's just Foster Maro back as well. So there's just more competition for for Jawan. I will say this, if you guys go to the pick lobby and look up all of these players, the top eight or so are in the 30s and 40s. Everybody else is like 28, 31. So, we're truly flipping coins and a lot of these guys in the next like the third tier are playing on horrific offenses. So, it's it's tough. That's why I kind of like Mason Taylor where I just think that he could be like the consistent volume sponge versus a lot of these other guys >> who are a little bit more hit and miss in in terms of their usage. I think >> to me there's a legit teardrop after Sam Laaporta.
>> Ev had a weird big game the last couple games, but that's the other games were so limited that I'm I'm in and out with you. >> Yeah. I I think it's like Laaporta. >> Yeah. >> And then obviously we talk about like the McBride, Ferguson, and I guess Warren.
>> Warren looks Warren looks I mean Kelsey looks Kelsey's been putting up decent he's been up decent numbers. Uh, speaking of numbers, I think Zack Z just went catchless for the first time in like 81 games. >> Wow. >> This past week. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, maybe in all the meetings this week, it's like, hey, let's let's make sure Zachi gets back his streak here. >> Get back to one. Get back to one. Any one pass. >> You're the wide. You're you're the tight end 20 with one reception.
>> Uh, and then we close this out with Coulson Love and Mark Andrews. Coulson Luffin is still in the injury report, by the way. Uh he's getting in like limited or questionable work. >> Yeah. >> Right now. So, um we'll see. I mean, he's he's a really good player. I just would really like to see it at some point. >> I'm hoping. Yeah, I'm hoping. So, we'll see.
>> That does it. Again, we have running back rankings on the channel, wide receivers, and here you got quarterbacks and tight ends. We also have a trade show with Faras that we picked out our favorite buy lows and sell highs along with eight or nine of your viewer questions. So appreciate you checking out all the content. We'll be back here on Sunday morning for a start show answering your questions for a few hours leading up to kickoff. That'll do it. Shout out Mosha Weaves behind the scenes. Hayden in front up the villa. We'll talk to y'all soon. See you.