Transcription
Hey everybody, Kimosabi here. How's it going? Hopefully you guys are doing all right. Hopefully last Friday didn't um surprise you or catch you off guard.
Don't know how closely you guys have been following what I've uh been saying, but the middle of the range was bullish or bearish to me. So having the range current range right there. If we're below that, we're in the lower portion that is bearish for the consolidation. So price making a higher high there. You would expect a higher low to come in above that. As soon as it's below that, then you expect the bottom of the range. So hopefully you didn't get caught off guard or trying to ladder into positions there, which I'm going to touch on that later.
Um, but let's go over the Wyckoff schematic that was presented on Camel's channel and follow up on that and just kind of give uh a little a little extra insight or maybe just repeat what he was talking about. Uh but yeah, there this is your original range where you had a potential spring down here and this was your show of strength and another show of strength to break out above the range. Now that you're above this range, this creek, this is a back up to the edge of the creek. Very hard retest trying to break through there but can't. So a failure to break back into there should lead to a markup phase. And the remaining supply is is right here. This is where you get your remaining supply.
Now, locally, you will have a reaccumulation formation after jumping across the creek in your show of strength. It'll reaccumulate. And you could see this happen on other areas of the chart where you had the same thing happening at this at the bear market lows essentially in 2022. There's your range. Break out above the range and took three months of back testing there before it uh started a markup campaign. So this three was this 3 months? This was April to September, more like 5 months, and we're currently working on right here somewhere around three to three to four months, July to October. So 3 months, 3 months of a backup phase, not unheard of, especially since Bitcoin has done this before uh back in 2023. So just got to get you bearish so that they can continue the markup campaign but hard retests of the range before markup. So we'll see if the uh the range low holds and you want to see a reaccumulation happening in the backup phase.
So, back up to the edge of the creek. Here's essentially your range. Showed the support there. Broke down, broke up, broke back down, showed it as resistance, back down to the bottom of the range, top of the range, back to the bottom of the range. So this also can look like a reaccumulation Wyckoff schematic where this is your spring on volume matching the volume of the distribution that happened early on in the range. Uh it may stab lower. I could see this going down to 105 still being totally fine, but I don't want to see daily candle closes down there. That would suggest acceptance back into the previous range of 109 to 74,000. That range was broken and we want that to remain broken. So looking for an uptrend to start somewhere out of here. Um, just has to start getting 4-hour higher highs and higher lows to start the trend up.
So, I'm just looking at the current range. What do you need to see? You need to see daily candle closes above this 117 back in the upper portion of the range. This may take some time. It may take a couple weeks. You may stab lower and then come up there. But, as soon as you're up here, you're in the bullish area of the consolidation and you're likely to at least break the highs for liquidity, pull back down, and then maybe continue the markup campaign similar to what happened in 2023.
All right. So, now we'll zoom out to the weekly chart and start looking for opportunities. Uh, took all the drawings off of the chart and let's see where opportunities lie like I usually do at the weekly candle close. I see where the wick is and I look for this current week to at least make the 0.5. So, that ended up being 110,900. It wicked past that and now found support. So that is that was a buy setup on the weekly just filling in this wick a little bit. I think it may fill it in a little bit more uh because there is liquidity down at 109. So I am kind of looking for a little bit lower. But if this does end up being bullish, you want to see this come back down to this previous support at 108,666. That's likely to be a buy setup. Stop loss goes at the low if you want to give that a try. Very low risk for a potential reward. If you do get stopped out, then you have to re-evaluate and look for that to come down, make a higher high, and then you would buy this support at 107 thereafter. So, you may have a swing fail there coming later on this week.
Zooming down to the 4-hour chart, looking for opportunities. This this may double bottom here. There is liquidity down there at 109.5. So that'll make sense to come down there. But we may go up first. Grab the upper liquidity then come back down. But expecting to be chopped back and forth. You currently do have on the 4-hour here you have a low, higher high, but now you have a lower low. So your lower high should come in around 111.4 or something like that. So, this may go like an ABC back down. And then this will be ABC up, ABC down, ABC up, and an ABC down, ABC up, and let it build momentum before it really starts going.
And while we're here on the 4-hour chart, we could see this last Friday, this this move down, which reading on Twitter caught a lot of people pretty badly. Um, I think this has to do with how people in crypto trade. They tend to do what is called lading into a position without thinking about their invalidation, which the invalidation often gets hit. And this happens in a range where price will just piss off the side of the roof and just keep coming down where people think, oh, ABC pullback, buy the dip, and it just keeps on dipping. So to avoid that happening to you, always watch the trend. So I would look for a higher high and look where is my higher low. So on a 4-hour here, let's let's draw that out. So on this chart, you have a low, you have a higher high. Here's your higher low. Here's your higher high. If you're looking for a higher low, you want it to show up somewhere around there above 117, which was my kind of line in the sand to be bullish or bearish. Once you started getting below there, it kind of didn't look good. However, it could have it could have reversed right there. But what you need to look for is some kind of reaction off of there and then somewhere to set your stop loss. If the price continues down, there's there's no entry long. So you have a low, this is a lower low, lower high scenario here. And this just kept making lower lows and lower highs. So I didn't take any any positions on that because it didn't give me any reaction, a higher high, by a higher low to then go up.
So, Bitcoin keeps doing this where they liquidate people and they give you what looks like a buy setup and it's like, oh, that buy setup is still fine. So, people are lading into this and it's just eventually they're they're cooked and millions of dollars get transferred to whoever is buying that. The the trade ended up being for me when Ethereum made its low cuz I was waiting for that setup. But um, as soon as you have a reaction here, then you have somewhere to manage risk off of. And this made this actually made a higher high. This should be a higher low, but there is liquidity below. So watch the closes. I think you do swipe the lows, but maybe maintain a bullish structure where you're still making higher highs. So maybe this pops up here and then flushes down and then closes the higher low. We will have to see. But you you have to look for a setup and and definitely look for the trend and where your trend should end up. Personally, I was looking at I think it was 118, 119 and that broke below that. So, I was I was not interested in this until it did something different. Um, so have your process and you know, you don't always have to be in a trade. Wait for your golden setups and then over time you'll be compounding your trading account instead of getting flushed trying to ladder into a position because we're in Q4 and it's going to be parabolic up only. Uh, if everybody's thinking that, yeah, maybe it happens but not the way you expect.
Go down into the Ethereum chart because I spoke about it. This is what kind of told me that there's a potential low happening and that's just the Elliot wave structure here on Ethereum. This is in linear scale. But I was always looking at this as some kind of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 wave structure. 6,000 currently being the target. We have a one, two, that should be three. This ends up being your four. And your wave five should make it up to the 2.618 for a five-wave impulse up. So after you make the 1.618 extension like I just showed there, one measure wave 1. You get the 1.618 extension there. and you play around there somewhat, but that kind of tells me wave three is up there or the potential for a wave three being up there in Elliot wave theory. So then where's the buy setup? Do you buy at the 1.618? Not usually. For Elliot wave traders, you want to buy the retrace of wave three. So you take the bottom of wave two measured up to the top of wave three and you look where the price came down to. And this happens so often for a wave four where you have an ABC pattern down to the 382 Fibonacci retrace like that. You can see that came right to that 382 retrace. As soon as that happens, I would expect eventually to see the 0.5 and we got that in in spades. So that is what I was kind of waiting for on Ethereum. I didn't enter any positions until I saw that. Um, and it came back down to wave four of lesser degree. So this is a good candidate for a wave four low again. This may stab lower and it's still valid if you come down to 3,369 and tag wave 4, the low of wave 4, a lesser degree, but this may be sufficient given the the reaction that you got off of that. So currently I am long Ethereum managing risk off of 35,000 or 3500, uh expecting this to somehow be a wave 1, 2, and wave three uh into a five-wave impulse up which could end up being an extended fifth wave.
If you're looking for entry on Ethereum, kind of same deal as just about any trade that I do. I look for a reaction and then a back test of previous support. See if it acts as support again. So around 3828, but it may come down as low as taking liquidity down at 30, 36, 3600. That would still be valid. and then you manage risk off of the low at 35, 3500. If it does break below there, maybe something different's happening and you may have to wait for an uptrend to start. Uh currently on the daily, you do have a lower low, like lower low, you are in a downtrend. So this does have to reverse and I'm only basing this off of an Elliot wave pattern which is measuring very, very nicely at the moment. Uh the reaction that you got off of this measures that leg very similarly. Let's draw that out with a a potential to be very, very bullish out of here. Like I said, current target is around 6,000, but this has the potential to be an extended fifth wave or appear to be an extended fifth wave. If these legs end up matching and coming out of that, you have the reaction, back test, back test. And then it does that and then you back test the range highs. You're going to push up substantially before entering this consolidation over here for another pop up. So targeting could be as high as like 13,000 on Ethereum, which I think is optimistic, but the pattern says it is valid as long as after this makes a higher high. You maintain higher highs and higher lows throughout until the end of the year or slightly thereafter.
XRP, man, what the heck? That was quite the liquidation move. um kind of caught me off guard. I did not expect that move to come down that far. Uh but I wasn't entering any positions until it made a higher high close. It did not. And also waited for Ethereum to make its wave four target. So I did end up entering long on this. I think around two 220 or something like that. uh kind of caught it late and already closed a little bit of profit there to cover my stop loss which I was managing risk at $1.50, I think it was. um but now probably raise that stop loss up would be a good idea and look for another entry. Where would the entry be? Likely at previous support. 190 would be a good area and you'd see that fill in this daily wick a little bit. So, if you do get priced down to 190, that may be a great opportunity. If it comes, it may not come. Uh if it doesn't come, you'd be buying a higher high, higher low scenario. Let me draw that out for you. So from this area, if price does come down there, I would see that as an opportunity at previous support. Uh you're managing risk way down there. So maybe wait for a bounce and then manage risk off of the bounce. uh see if you get a get lucky on it. Or if you miss that entry or if that entry doesn't come like for a higher high and you buy the higher low at this support at 280. um that could be very, very bullish. You may be repeating this leg up to there and this will be your choppy back test and then after that moon mission if moon mission doesn't come sooner than that.
But yeah, don't rush it. Look for your setups. Don't force a setup after having a liquidation like that uh on any chart on Bitcoin, Ethereum, S&P 500, on gold. If you have a liquidation like that, you have to think all of these orders here, both buyers and sellers, the order book is clear. And when the order book is clear like that, the market makers and whales can push price all the way up and down here because the order books will be very thin. So you could easily get liquidated, liquidated, liquidated, liquidated until the orders fill in and you get some liquidity. you're likely to have price chop around to build that liquidity and then the market goes and grabs it and grabs it. So, watch for those thin order books since you had a liquidation event. Price can go down further than you expect. It may not be up only from here on a closing basis. This looks like the ABC right there. So you may just be repeating this or chopping this up. So look for something like that. Maybe we'll have more data in the future, but trade your trend. If you're making higher highs and higher lows, trade the higher high to higher low. Take take some profits. We make a lower low, sell the lower high, come back down, wait for an uptrend to start, buy it back again. So, we'll see what we get out of that. There's there's potential for this to, you know, go up to like 20 bucks of a formation like this. Again, this is like similar Wyckoff stuff. There's your range. You got a spring of the range, maybe back test support for show of strength, and then markup campaign. That's the way I'm seeing it for now.
Kind of a longer video than usual, but probably a a lot to update that I haven't been updating lately. But sometimes there's not a lot to update when you're chopping in a range. Um, avoid getting super bullish when everybody else is bullish. Markets don't usually uh mark up when everybody's ready for a markup. They'll flush you out first and give you a some sell setups before invalidating your sell setups. So, I don't know if that's uh that's what I got for now. Uh ask your questions in the uh comments section below. Uh follow along on Slice. Uh I'll be updating there more often than on YouTube, especially with intraday trading and what I'm seeing and where I see the opportunities. I try to update there daily if not multiple times a day if price is moving. So yeah, keep your stops tight and uh have a good night.