Transcription
And we're joined now by Chevron chairman and CEO Mike Worth. Welcome to Face the Nation.
Thank you, Margaret.
It's good to have you here, particularly in this moment in time, because it feels like we're in this global energy shock. What we heard from the head of the International Energy Agency, he said, "If you combine the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian oil crisis and what happened around 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, if you combine all those things, that still isn't the scope of what we are experiencing." Is that how you put it?
Well, the way I would frame it is um the energy system uh has lost an incredible amount of flexibility. Uh the global economy consumes about 100 million barrels of oil every day. A barrel is 42 gallons. About 20% of that moves through the straight of Hormuz. So that's been significantly disrupted. Uh normally the energy system has shock absorbers in it. So we have inventory in tanks at facilities. We've got inventory on the water in ships. We've got inventory in strategic reserves.
All of those have been pulled down over the last couple of months as these events have unfolded.
And what it's done is it's taken those shock absorbers and made them much less effective in the system. And so disruptions normally um are are u met by moving these inventories around and and price u response can be muted. uh as the shock absorbers are withdrawn uh the shocks translate translate a little bit more directly and so I I think what he's referring to is we're in a period where there's been significant supply taken out of the system and we are facing this upward pressure on prices and and volatility that is um uh manifest itself thus far and and likely to uh to continue.
Likely to continue because it's unclear if we have a ceasefire or an end to the war. I mean, if there is an actual negotiated end to the war, do prices come down or is just a truce enough to give relief?
Well, what's really needed is for flow to resume through the straight of Hormuz.
You can't take 20% of the energy out of the system and some of it's finding its way around to the Red Sea, but there's still a substantial amount of world energy supply that is not able to flow. And uh and so that's the key thing is to restore that flow. It allows markets to begin to rebuild these inventories. It allows us to uh get products to where they're needed and to alleviate some of the pressure. But that that all will take time. It's a world where we get logistics of uh ships and pipelines and moving things around to markets around the world. And so that's why I say I think it's going to be with us for some time because even if the straight were to open today, uh getting supplies to where they're needed and resuming uh the the normal functioning of the system is going to take some time.
So how heavily mined is the straight of Hormuz because you have intelligence analysts giving you data. How much risk is there to go through that point?
Yeah, I don't know I could quantify how heavily mined the the straight is, but uh clearly Iran has uh the capability to um to hit vessels as they move through the straight. We've seen that happen maybe not daily, but certainly with some degree of frequency and it's not just mines that they have. There's other means that that have been used. And we've been moving ships through that part of the world for for years and years and have seen some of these capabilities. And so, um, I think it's very difficult militarily to, um, to deal with that because they've prepared these capabilities and I think they've shown the ability to to exercise them. And so, I the president and the administration are focused on um, you know, that as part of the negotiations and and we certainly hope that they're successful with that.
If they can figure out who to negotiate with. The president says that's part of the problem right now, not knowing who's actually um, the decision maker in Iran. But we did see the Washington Post report that the Pentagon informed members of Congress that it would take approximately six months to clear out the straight and that's in a post-combat situation. As a CEO, what do you need to see to feel confident to put a ship through the straight of Hormuz?
Well, we'd have to believe that our our people on the ship will be safe, the cargo will be safe, and that it can be transited with with a high degree of confidence. We will work with uh the military authorities, the US Navy to uh to to make that assessment and uh certainly many other shippers and ship owners are faced with the same the same questions. Um I haven't seen the report you you referenced, but uh uh we work closely with uh the US Navy and other uh military uh organizations around the world to ensure safe transit of ships all over the world. And so it's a decision we would make in collaboration with those kinds of experts.
At one point the energy secretary was on this program and he said the first few ships would likely have a naval escort. Is is that something you would want like warships escorting through?
Certainly seen naval escorts used in the past when there have been conflicts in that part of the world. We've had ships that have been escorted through the straight. Um, I think in the early days it's very likely that um that you you could see naval escorts uh because I think some of the risks are not just mines that could be um placed in the straight, but they could be also risks that could come from the land in in other forms. And so um I think having the uh navy with those ships that make the first transit would provide a higher degree of confidence that if there were to be something happen that you'd have some some measure of defense.
Mhm. You just need to know with confidence that you are able to go through without getting hit and that you can kind of adequately price that risk.
Yeah. For us though, pricing the risk.
Because you're saying the risk has always existed.
The risk has always existed. So pricing the risk is not the issue for for us. Uh it's the safety of our people. Our our highest priority is the safety of our people, the security of our assets, protecting the environment. So, the risk that you could have someone injured or worse, that you could have a ship damaged or um you could have an oil spill, those are the things that we really concern about. The pricing of the risk, the insurance, those things are all manageable. It's really the the safety of people and the protection of the assets and the environment that will govern our decision-making.
When we talk about pricing though and sort of going back to pre-start of the war. It it's not just the straight. 12 refiners in the Middle East were hit by a missile or a drone attack according to Clear View Energy. So, the infrastructure itself has been damaged. How long does it take to get production back as well?
Well, it's going to take uh in some cases weeks and months, in some cases years. Uh there have been um oil fields that have been just shut in because there's no place to store the oil. Uh sometimes these fields it's not like uh turning the tap on your faucet. Uh these are complex reservoirs with a lot of subsurface dynamics. So those have to be brought back carefully. There's been damage to um upstream, midstream and downstream infrastructure like refineries. I think people are working to repair that to the extent that they can. Some of these are easier fixes than others. Some will be years. Some of the LNG facilities that have been damaged. The uh type of equipment that needs to be replaced has a supply chain that will require years to replace it. And so I think it'll be it'll come on gradually and depending upon how quickly some of the damage can be addressed.
Why do you think this was such a surprise? We're not anticipating in that region that the drones would be as effective as they were or that the Iranians will be as successful in shutting down the straight of Hormuz.
Yeah, that's a question that is probably best answered by others. Um I don't know what was expected and and how that would compare to the reality. Uh certainly uh you know most reports would suggest that Iran had been preparing for uh something like this. I think the other states in the region had their defensive capabilities. Uh but uh you know when when conflict begins it's can be very unpredictable how it unfolds.
Clearly. Um, and when it comes to the price, when we look at what's happening out there on the markets, that's one thing that's traders placing bets. The American people are looking at the cost when they, you know, gas up their car. When will things return to pre-February 28th and the start of this conflict?
Yeah, it's it's one of the things I've learned in over 40 years in this industry is predicting price is extremely difficult. Even in normal times, markets can surprise you. Uh this is not a normal time. The dynamics that are affecting supply uh are quite unusual. Um the potential for that to flow through into the economy and maybe slow demand is I think increasing and uh and so.
People use less gas you're saying because.
Certain parts of the world u it's not just gas it's LPG for cooking in um in South Asia it is jet fuel in Europe a number of products are becoming very short in supply. Behavior changes uh in in a couple of ways. One people will use less energy. Second one is people will hoard energy. Uh back uh in the 70s I recall uh during the embargo of the US um in my family we would drive around with a car as full as we possibly could. Normally people drive around they're comfortable with a half a tank or a quarter tank of gas. And so you'll see people will hold on to supplies that otherwise they might not. They may use less. And so predicting both demand and supply in a in a market that's this dynamic is is very difficult. U I think the key thing is as I said before the shock absorbers being drained out of the system which means there's this upward pressure on price because supply is getting tighter and the ability to resupply is getting more difficult.
And um and that increases the likelihood of volatility as well.
So we can't say that gas prices have peaked for example.
I I think it's very hard to say that because you have to make a bunch of assumptions about that and and it depends on what you assume.
You mentioned jet fuel that doesn't have as long of a life, right? You you have to refresh and replenish storage pretty quickly. We're reading about airports running out of jet fuel. What's the reality there? What what is the supply and what does that mean for Americans who might want to travel?
Yeah, inventories of jet fuel in certain parts of the world were at seasonally relatively low levels before the conflict began. Uh the Middle East refiners are significant exporters of jet fuel. Um particularly to Europe where 75% of Europe's imported jet fuel tends to come from those refineries. It's not flowing today. So uh we are seeing jet fuel tighten very quickly in uh in Europe in Asia. And we're seeing uh airlines announce adjustments in their flight schedules. We're seeing it flow through into fares. I think that's one of the first places it'll be felt most broadly. I mean, we've seen some upward pressure on gasoline prices. Now, uh I think aviation is clearly an area where it's going to probably get worse over the next few weeks.
Get worse over the next few weeks, but that still that has a lag effect. I mean, what you're saying is if you're buying a trip to Europe, expect to pay a heck of a lot more even if it's months from now.
Yeah. Again, I can't predict how the airlines are going to price their their product, but um but I think the upward pressure that they're seeing on prices and the u the tightness in the market is likely to lead to further route optimization and so uh flights may not be as abundant as as they otherwise would have been. I think planes will probably be more full than they would have been and and yes, fares fares could be higher.
So when you hear the Treasury Secretary or the Energy Secretary say $3 a gallon and oh it'll come down again in the next few months. You're saying we we don't know enough to actually make hard predictions. That's what I hear you saying.
Yeah. It's you know there's a kind of an old axiom that you know I can tell you the price I just can't tell you when. Um it's just it's very difficult to predict these things because markets are are dynamic. Uh they can respond to things that we don't anticipate. And uh the the one reality is that these u these shock absorbers are not as um uh effective as you get down to lower levels of inventory. And so I think that's going to be with us for a period of time.
So the longer the conflict or this period wherein without resolution, it's going to continue to.
I think I think it can extend these market uh effects.
So um the president issued five different memos this past week applying to the Defense Production Act to oil, natural gas, and other energy infrastructure. This is going to in theory allow him to increase production. Can you just turn on production at a moment's notice? What difference does this make to you?
Yeah, I I uh you can't turn on production at a moment's notice. Uh it takes engineering, it takes supply chains, it takes contracts and and workers moving and being mobilized. So, it it takes time to uh to bring new production into the market. Our company had record production in uh the US last year, 2 million barrels a day, a million barrels a day in the Permian. We're going to grow 7 to 10% again this year. So, we do have plans underway to deliver more oil to the market.
That's out in North Dakota and other parts of this country.
North Dakota, uh outside of the country, uh some other other locations as well. So, we're we're investing to grow, but that that has a lead time and it has planning and um and then execution time involved. The um you know the the Defense Production Act uh intentions of the government I believe are aligned with some of their broader and pre-existing objectives to encourage investment in uh power generation for AI for instance and so um I I'm not sure that it is uh solely intended to respond to the current situation in the Middle East as much as it may be part of the broader goal to encourage more investment into energy infrastructure in this country.
But the White House is urging energy companies to to bump up production, right? To help alleviate costs.
Well, in a time.
How much pressure are you getting?
When a time when supply is short, uh you want to you want to bring as much supply into the market as you can. Uh the administration's taken some actions I think are very positive. Uh the release from the the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is is helpful. Uh there's something called the Jones Act which puts restrictions on shipping in the US that has been relieved which provides more flexibility which we're using to move supplies from places where they're plentiful to places where they're becoming very tight.
That is like this 1920s law that required American ships to go to American ports.
Built in American shipyards crewed by American mariners. And there's only so many of those ships in existence and they're in they're fully utilized all the time. And so to make these incremental uh voyages, you need to bring other shipping assets into the mix, which the uh the waiver of the Jones Act has done. And so we've been bringing uh crude oil and products from the Gulf Coast of the United States around to the West Coast to supply Alaska, Hawaii, California. Uh those are good actions that can that can help in the short term create supplies where supplies are needed. Uh the longer-term solution is really to have policies that encourage steady continuous investment in infrastructure to increase supply and create a more resilient energy system over time.
But for that you need the other branch of government. You need Congress to go forward with permitting reform. Right?
I I think permitting reform is a a critical uh enabler of investment in all types including wind and solar and um nuclear and geothermal and traditional energy like oil and gas. Uh it's easy to stop projects from being built in this country today. Uh it's very difficult to get the permission to build it and then have it survive the inevitable challenges that it faces through the legal system. And so there's good work underway in Congress. Uh there's some good legislation that has uh been drafted and is being uh discussed. Uh and we're we're very supportive of uh permitting reform that allows appropriate environmental protection and oversight, appropriate uh legal provisions, but then also allows this country to invest and build infrastructure for the future of all types.
But then you also need a vehicle and you need Congress to actually act. I mean, right now, Congress is struggling to get very basic funding deals done. You're asking for them to write new laws. They haven't been doing that a lot lately.
It's a very um evenly divided Congress and um it has been difficult to get legislation done. I think this is important enough to the economy that and and has some bipartisan support that I remain optimistic that we could see something emerge.
Do you have any pledges from from leadership that they will try to move on this because of the emergency we're in?
Well, we've seen uh Congressman Westerman, Senator Lee have been working this. They've been working with colleagues on the other side of the aisle and um there's legislation that has been moved from the House to the Senate. There are discussions underway and um I can't predict the outcome of the process other than say I think it would really good for this country to see that that succeed.
Well, that also though is not a quick fix, right?
No, that's that's part of the durable long-term solution.
So, the energy industry famously was at odds with the last administration and vice versa. In this administration, are you and your fellow CEOs calling the White House and saying you're being too optimistic? Are you telling them how much strain there is right now?
Well, one thing I I will say is this is an administration that engages the business community very regularly and it's uh across the board from all different um departments within the government. Uh they seek dialogue, they seek input uh and they're available and accessible in a way that I think is very very good particularly at a time at a time like this. Uh we engage in discussions with them on a regular basis about uh the situation. Uh I had discussions as recently as today about the things we're doing to try to ensure reliable supplies into into US markets. And so yes, we we speak on a fairly regular basis.
But you feel you can be honest and say because the president is telling the American people gas prices aren't that high. His cabinet is telling the American people that prices are about to come down. You're telling me that's not that certain at all.
Well, yeah. I'm telling you that the risks kind of skew to the upside right now. And the.
And they know that.
And the opportunity is for us to res, you know, see see flow resume through the straight and then at the same time pursue these policies which I think the administration really does uh have as a priority to continue to encourage investment in uh infrastructure in our economy.
The IMF director recently told us that this is going to last likely through 2026. You would say that's an a fair assessment.
Well, this is a significant shock to the system. It is uh reorienting uh trade flows, logistics, ships, the entire system is in a state of disequilibrium right now that um uh has emerged over the last several weeks. And as we get to a resolution at at at some point in time to establish a new equilibrium means you're going to have to resume uh flows. Uh you're going to have to restart fields to our earlier discussion. You're going to have to get ships repositioned in in places that are optimal to establish supply. So it will take some time. It's not it's not a light switch as you said.
So do you think that this Iran war has refocused investment on this hemisphere that Chevron has a lot of business in this hemisphere? Do you see this as a a market shift?
I think it's too early to say that. I mean this has been going on for eight weeks. Um our investment cycle uh takes years to put assets on the ground which last for decades. And so our planning horizon uh doesn't respond to circumstances that emerge over this short a period of time. I think one of the interesting questions to watch will be um on the other side of this how does the energy system evolve? I suspect there will be structural differences uh in many aspects. Some could be uh hemispheric focus, some could be infrastructure in the Middle East to create u logistics routes that avoid u certain choke points. And uh and so I think those there will probably be some differences that we see. There may be different levels of strategic stocks that countries decide that they want to hold as buffers, particularly countries that have found themselves very exposed. So I think the new energy system will look different than the one that uh you know that we've been living in in recent times. I think it's early to predict with a lot of confidence exactly what that will look like.
Well, in this hemisphere in Venezuela, Chevron has been the only American long-term player of any significant size in that country. Um, they have the world's largest oil reserves. The energy secretary told us um after Maduro uh was taken out of power that the US would be involved for at least a year, if not two years, before they hand over full sovereignty to the Venezuelan government. How deep does that go? Like how long do you expect the American government to be in Venezuela trying to help change their energy policies?
Yeah, again that's probably better answered by someone other than me. I think they.
But what needs to happen?
Well, the um the new uh interim president has overseen some changes in their hydrocarbon law which uh changes the terms under which companies could invest in the country. It moves things in a positive direction. Uh it still needs some work. It's probably not enough to bring in the level of investment that would be desirable. Uh so I think there's there's progress that's been made. I think the US has reopened the embassy has got some people on the ground now that are interacting with the Venezuelan government on a regular basis. Venezuelan government seems to be very interested in uh more US investment in the country. Number of different companies have been down there taking a look at things. Uh this would be good for Venezuela, be good for the United States. Uh this is, you know, oil that is the type that the refineries along the Gulf Coast were designed to to process.
Uh I think an increase in production there would would improve uh energy reliability and um and supplies in the United States. Uh so we're very supportive of those kinds of u evolutions of the system. Uh but it's a work in progress at this point.
So, you must have read that Wall Street Journal article that talked about a former Chevron executive um who according to their reporting advised the US that if the Maduro regime was ousted and the Democratic opposition that had won the last election were to be put into power uh there'd be a quagmire like Iraq that there wasn't support from the oil infrastructure um sort of officials and executives there. Was that reflective of Chevron's views?
No. He's not a Chevron employee. He's got no ongoing relationship with with our company. I haven't spoken to him for years. And whatever opinions were expressed were his alone. And they certainly don't reflect opinions from from our company.
But in terms of the outcome that we have seen, we did see the Trump administration go that route of not pushing into power the elected opposition party, but keeping the very same regime in place.
I think the administration had talked to uh people who had been involved in uh similar circumstances elsewhere in the world previously where uh the US had been involved in a change in government and the way it was executed created in certain instabilities and kind of unintended uh risks or consequences and uh certainly as I listen to people like Secretary Rubio talk about their approach um it seems well informed by some of those lessons. Lessons uh from from the past. And so I can only assume that they've looked at those kinds of uh situations and have tried to learn those lessons to navigate this in a way that doesn't create some of the unintended consequences that that we saw in Iraq, for instance.
Does Secretary Rubio seek your counsel on these things?
I speak to Secretary Rubio from time to time. Absolutely.
And I mean, you you know the energy industry that's really kind of powering everything for them right now. So, you provide him advice? I mean, how long do you think it's going to take? Back to that original question to to have the American government pull back or is the American government going to stay?
I I I don't know that. Um, so, uh, I would say, you know, they've established some influence over the flow of revenue into the into the economy, which um will be supported by, I think, increased exports around the world. Uh that I think will be good for the people of Venezuela. Uh I think on the ground already we're seeing prices for certain goods come down, inflation coming down, growth u exceeding expectations and so some of the situation on the ground I believe is moving in a direction that could be characterized as positive.
U but your observation that many of the people in in government are are unchanged is is also I think accurate. And I've heard Rub Secretary Rubio say that uh he does see in due course u elections as part of the plan. And so I take him at his word on that.
Yeah. Well, we're going to continue reporting on it because some of the people I mean the defense minister ran the domestic intelligence unit and has been sanctioned by the US and Europe for human rights abuses. The interior minister, the Estdio Cabo has a $25 million bounty on his head. He was kind of Maduro's chief thug. These are the people running the country, just to be clear here. Um, and at one point that government took Chevron employees hostage back in 2018.
We we had some people that were um.
And you're still having to deal with these actors.
Yeah. You know, around the world, uh, we don't get to choose the governments of countries where we operate. Um, we, you know, have to follow the resource where it is. We make assessments on the security on the ground. We take great care to protect our people and um and our assets, but it can be challenging and um and we we're in a long cycle business. Uh we tend to outlast any particular um administration or regime in any country, including in this country.
And uh and we have to take a long view on what we do. Try to do things that are good for the people of the country because that's ultimately what your license to operate is granted by the people of the country. And then we have to work with the governments that that we have and um our role isn't to change them or to tell them uh how to govern. Our our role is to try to uh you know do the right thing for the people of the country and live up to the terms of our contracts and operate in a way that's consistent with our values and and US law.
Uh the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado on this program was saying that um no one's going to settle for half measures in her view, but that to get the people you need to work in the energy industry who might have fled the country, they're not going to come back to Venezuela until they see a democratic transition. Do you think that's right? Do you think that you can hire people to go work for you and your company there now, or are they still fearful for their lives?
We have great employees in Venezuela, Venezuelan national employees that have stayed in their country, that are committed to their country and uh and committed to the values that we try to bring to their country. It's undeniable that uh 25 years ago there was a very talented workforce in our industry in Venezuela that worked for the state-owned company, many of whom have moved to other parts of the world, are working in other countries now, have established their lives, their families in those places. And I think returning uh from a place where you've established yourself uh is a difficult decision for anybody. And so I suspect we'll see some people that choose to come back. I think we'll we'll probably see others that choose to stay wherever it is that their life is centered today.
We'll continue watching it. Mike Worth, thank you for your insights.