Transcription
All right, everyone. It's been a few days since the last update. I hope you're all very well.
Obviously, we saw some big alt rallies in the past week and we're now sort of seeing a cool off in that in lieu of the FOMC event coming up tonight. Uh, that's pretty standard with stuff like this. You often see the market de-risking into that event. But I think once we get that event passed tonight, we're going to see some clear direction in the market that we can play into. I'm going to cover BTC, ETH, Soul, others, and uh, some extra tidbits which I'll cover later in the video. But before I do that, make sure to like and subscribe, hit the notification bell, and uh, let's jump into it.
All right, the first thing to note is the Fed will almost certainly cut rates by 25 basis points. Uh, sort of the real question is whether Powell says more about rate cuts later this year. Um, if he sounds tougher, so hawkish, the markets could drop more short-term, but that might set up for a good buy since the bigger picture is still positive. If he agrees with more cuts, there's little reason to stay bearish, I think, and we just follow the price action from there.
Obviously, around these events, we often see these whipsaws. So, if I go to the BTC chart right now, price will sometimes, you know, consolidate. It'll rip up, take out the upside liquidity, rip down again, take out everyone that was long before sort of choosing its direction. Sometimes it does the double, which is uh, you know, not out of character for these big events. But I think, you know, this happens tonight at 4:00 a.m. my time. So, obviously I'm asleep for that. I generally leave stink bids for spot alts that have been strong simply because I just don't see any point in leaving longs just 'cause you don't know how the price action is going to play out. So, while I think we do get a clear horizon after this event, I think it's quite difficult to position into it beforehand. But once again, we'll go over some stink bids for the majors I've just discussed.
So, starting with BTC, we are at that key inflection point right now. Um, obviously, we took that long. I think it was two videos ago down here on this 112K flip. Now, we got above that and now pushing into the resistance I talked about, which is the 117.5 level. You can also see up here we have this daily supply level also indicated by this high volume node over here. So, we've pretty much filled this low volume gap over here up into that. Uh, and I think if we do get that sort of whipsaw, we're looking for any sort of pullback into the daily level down at like 113.2. We have reclaimed the daily money noodle, the daily trend, which is a good sign. But I just don't think you want to long into resistance right here. So, scenarios I'm watching right now. If we do pump tonight and get above this level and start accepting above it, I think we can target all-time highs. So, take out these highs up here. But until that happens, I'm looking to TP some into this 117.5 level. So, I've left my limit sells open for that. And I think if we do pull back into here down at 113, down into 112 even, I'm looking to compound my position to target this area and then also all-time high if we can flip that.
Now, flipping to a chart I have shared in previous videos and also on my Twitter. Make sure you follow. Um, we are now back inside the old range. So, we pretty much deviated into the prior range down here at 112K. We accepted back above that. Now we're pushing into the EQ, the equilibrium of the top range. Now you can see the equilibrium pretty much lines up with this level I've marked here, this 118. supply level. So, once we close back inside the old range, we haven't yet tagged the range low. So, some sort of pullback into that where that daily demand is that I talked about would be an excellent long opportunity to target the 123 range high and the all-time high.
Now, an important thing to note with these big events like FOMC, we often see a pump leading into it, but historically those pumps that lead into it have actually led to a pullback and a sell-off. So, I don't think you just sort of long the first candle on the news tonight if it's bullish. Uh, 'cause often what you see is that candle pumps and then it gets retraced quite quickly and starts to sell off. So, just be wary of that.
Onto Ethereum. Interesting chart. We are holding the daily trend. So, you can see when we flipped it down here at like 2400, we've just held it on every retest on the way up. You can see we bottomed in here and we took quite a bit of time chopping, but still we pushed up out of that at the daily trend. So, what I'm looking for right here, if we go down to a lower time frame like the 4-hour. You can see this was the old range high here. This red line at 4500, which is a level I discussed on the last stream. Now, right now we're sort of pressuring into that level. We did close a bit below it and we're getting back above. We can see we are being capped by the 4-hour noodle here. So, price is struggling to get back above that. I think sort of the real line in the sand to look for, you know, continuation play on Ethereum is to get above this supply level up here at 4570. Now, if we start to flip that, this is where I think we get the acceptance above and then we can start targeting this local high over here at 4760 and then the all-time high. If we do pull back, I'm looking for us to come back into this 4-hour demand down here, which has held very well so far. So, if we get that whipsaw tonight, which I'm talking about, I think all you're looking for is clearance above this 4600 level, this supply up here on the 4-hour, or you're looking for a pullback if we accept back inside the old range down to the 4200 H4 demand. If we start closing below that, I really think that 4K level offers the best RR opportunity. And that's where I'll look to pick up spot quite heavily. But, you know, we're still quite a way off that. So, we just need to see if we can get there. And I think what will be indicative of that is if we fail to close above this H4 noodle, accept back inside the range, and we sort of start trending down. So, really looking for the previous week's low down here, this H4 demand to hold. And if we don't, it's that 4K level which we've discussed many times in the previous videos.
Onto Solana. I'm still in my long position that we took at 208 in the previous video. It actually front-ran my sells up at the weekly resistance. You can see that right here. Just almost got to it, but didn't quite. I took a bit of profit on that, but I'm still holding the majority of the position. I just think tonight all we really want to see is, you know, I'm going to have some take profit there, but I think we start flipping that. We can start to trend up towards $300. What I really like right here, the daily trend has held very well on the way up. And it's actually lining up with the market structure break level down here at 218. So, between 220 and 218 is where I'm potentially looking to compound this. It also lines up with the 62 level of the Fibonacci, which means a 62% retracement from the highs. Um, I just think there's a lot of confluence down here. Here you've got this low volume inefficiency over here to fill and the next high volume node sort of lines up down with that pocket down here. So, any pullback to 220 to 218 is where I'm looking to pick up more and I think, you know, if that whipsaw comes tonight and we do get that sell-off from the event, this is where you want to target. Um, your first target would be that 250 level and I think we start to clear that. As said, 300 is the target.
Now, the important thing to note is Ford Industries announced they were going to put 1.6 billion into the treasury fund. That has actually been fully deployed now. So, a pullback kind of makes sense um because the news pump was based off that. We do have more data raises and the ETF coming in late October. So, that could be more sort of credence for another leg and I think we get a pullback before then and I think that pullback is going to be worth buying for taking profit later in the next month.
Something else I've noticed as well, the SOL/ETH chart is actually coming to a very key inflection point which we've also discussed in prior videos. You can see we're coming into the weekly trend. Now, the weekly trend has been held very well on the way up. Um, every retest has always led to new highs. And you can see once we actually lost that, we flipped bearish on it. We gave it a bearish retest here at 0.064. We've now come down into the weekly support level down at 0.04 and had a nice bounce. But that bounce is now coming up into a resistance level. That resistance level is 0.054. Now, we also have the weekly trend there. So, there's a lot of confluence here for a rejection. You can also see price is sort of starting to stall there. So, if we do get some sort of sell-off there, that would lead to a pullback and SOL. would also mean Ethereum starts to break out and possibly where you start to play the rotation into ETH and ETH betas. So, this is the weekly chart. Takes a lot of play out, but just something to keep on your radar and watch for now. Once again, these pair charts are very strong to use and very easy to use and just show relative strength. You can see that relative strength may be stalling once it hits this level.
So, now onto this graphic. This is dominance by open interest. So, basically BTC in blue, ETH green, and others which are all coins in orange. Uh, we can see over the past two years, every time others' open interest has come up and breached BTC's open interest, we've seen quite a significant pullback in the market. We can see that here around March 2024, again around January 2025, and now we're seeing possibly breaching that point again. So, we are starting to come up into that pinch zone, uh, that inflection point. It's just worth sort of trading with caution moving forward with alts based on that.
Now, this also may be why we're starting to see a bit of a sell-off in alts. Obviously, BTC is holding quite strong, looks constructive, but I think a lot of altcoins which looked very good last week and had big rallies are actually starting to sell off quite a bit. Uh, there are a few outliers which look quite strong. Um, and they're obviously the ones to play into, holding their ground. Things like MNT, things like Hype, things like Pump, not really selling off that much. So, sort of what I'm looking for with whipsaws tonight, if we get it on the FOMC news, is to position into those which have held up quite well, not things that are stuck in downtrends and we're trying to time a bottom that may never come.
So, while we're talking about altcoins, we can look at the others and others dominance charts. We'll go to others first. Uh, this is one we covered on last stream quite extensively. All I'm looking for is that flip and acceptance above 326 billion. Now, you can see we actually pushed above it and we started to sell back below it. We actually have two trend lines in play here. So, I go to the line chart. You can see these two different trend lines. Uh, really what I'm looking for, I really want to see that pop above 326 billion. But I think, you know, there's nothing to say we can't just trend up this line. So, maybe we keep getting those rallies on altcoins. It pops up a bit, sells off a bit, and keeps bouncing off this trend line. But, you know, the more we bounce off this trend line, the more we're accepting above this 326 billion level. I think if we actually start to lose that, we're going to see some big sell-off notes. And I think what I'm looking for is just to come down to around 270 billion, uh, just to honor this trend line, which has been, you know, historically respected so far. We are trending up the 3-day noodle quite well. So, losing that would be in line with retesting this bottom trend line. But I think right now, price looks fine and we're just seeing a bit of a cool-off in alts leading into that FOMC event. So, nothing really to action yet. Have a bit of caution, but also there's no reason to be bearish yet. I think this chart still looks quite strong and constructive.
We go down to others dominance. Once again, same trend line. We flipped this key pivot level down here. And you can see we're still just trending up that line. So, no cause for concern yet. What we want to see is just to hold this, hold above this bottom pivot level, and just to continue trending up. And others dominance is basically showing that there's more volume going to altcoins than anywhere else if it's outperforming.
So, I have quite a few alt setups which I'm tracking tonight for pullbacks. I'm going to set stink bids on. I try to keep these market outlooks as quick as possible. So, I'm not going to get into those now. I am going to list them all in the Mars High Club. So, I've got about 10 coins I'm looking at for pullbacks. Obviously, all of them won't hit, so I'm just sort of trying my luck. So, if you want to see what I'm bidding for that, you can go check out the link in the description for the Mars High Club. I should be posting those within the next hour or two. And other than that, I'm going to leave the stream there. I'll catch up with you tomorrow post-FOMC for an update on that. Make sure to like and subscribe and I'll catch you tomorrow.