Transcription
Today's number is 86. That's the amount of days that we've been going up on the NASDAQ with no greater than a 3% pullback, and it's pretty rare, only happening a handful of times over the last couple of decades. But what could it mean for us as traders and investors?
In today's video, we'll take a look at where liquidity tends to be going right now and why it could still mean there is trouble on the horizon, particularly in an issue that came up in 2022. So, join us as we cover off everything that you need to know into the end of the year for markets around the world, including stocks, commodities, and cryptos. This one's going to be good. We'll see you in a moment.
Well, welcome back everybody to the special weekend edition of the Daily Show. My name's Thomas Atinson and in today's video we'll be taking a look at where insiders potentially are placing their money right now. Why Nvidia could hold the key to the markets and of course are there problems in the debts markets particularly in bonds. These things and more we're tracking as we cover off stocks, commodities and cryptos including the macro side.
But I thought we'd kick things off with some of the news stories going around and maybe a couple of scary charts that we need to keep in the back of our mind before we take a look at the general overall picture into the next month and indeed end of year. First up, Jeff Bezos in a recent interview called AI a bubble. And in some ways, he may need to know what a bubble is because his shares, remember, went from like something like $130 down to $6 back in the dotcom boom and of course bust.
Now, at the same time, I think the main key thing here is that a few people, teams less than six people are now commanding billions of dollars of investment capital once again. And while I agree this is certainly a possibility, remember the recent MIT survey said that 95% of new AI startups were going to fail and that they would not be profitable and eventually end up in catastrophe.
Now, why is this a big thing? While this is a industrial revolution in some ways and of course we all know AI is the future but the question is will it have the normal growing pains it's my belief it will at some point but remember when everybody calls it a bubble generally it doesn't crash and what that means that even a pullback occurs now there's probably going to be quite a lot of buying demand generally people speaking or everyone always traces the dragon or whatever until it eventually becomes allin and do remember that we now have articles talking about how to protect from the AI bubble. Easy money has been made and people believe that it's already kind of done. That usually means there's a little bit more left in the tank.
Another interesting story I saw over the weekend was that there are now no top companies from Europe in the top 25 market capitalization share businesses in the world. So, this is the first time we've ever seen that. And it just shows you the domination as well of the US market and of course one of the ones that we love to talk about and trade here on the channel. And then the main reason is of course innovation that generally tends to drive the best businesses in the world. And you can see here that now we have a whole new pack of innovators when it comes to the last decade. Nvidia in particular going from one of the smaller businesses all the way to the top. It just shows you how things can change and why in some ways index investing and sector investing is such a great thing for us as well to utilize in our arsenal.
Now, let's talk about the 86 number because it has now been 86 straight days without a 3% draw down from all-time highs. Now, this is a pretty big one. This is the best in over 5 years and it's approaching now the big rally we saw from, of course, another big thrust, which was a Zag thrust. By the way, if you're not familiar with those, sub to the channel. Swag thrust, triple 70 thrust, these things usually are extra good when it comes to really recognizing a bullish market. Well, it's been a long time since, of course, we've seen something like this. And yeah, it usually means you're starting to get up near the pointy end and there will be some volatility on the horizon.
Now, when will it come? Will it be the month of October? Well, let's take a look at everything right now. First up, one of the scary charts out there is, of course, 2018 versus 2025. We've shared this a few times. It comes from the compound. It's a cool overlay and it really shows that if we're going to see a bit of a fall off, often it does happen into the end of the year. But do remember that this is a tax reform year similar to 2018, followed by of course tariffs. Yes, 2018 had them as well, followed by in this case rate cuts and falling yields. Now yields of course stabilized but remember last time it was rate hikes and it was also rising yields. So there are a couple of differences but I think in one similarity there is an issue which is of course this one here and that is the metals market.
Now, you guys know I love gold, we love silver, we love so many metals, and we've been incredibly bullish uranium, all these types of areas for the last year in particular. And one of the reasons that we've been so bullish on it is we believe that inflation might be sticky. We thought that central banks around the world were stacking, of course, precious metals in what we call a currency war. And at the same time, we've also been pretty aware now for a while that commodities are very cheap even now. And on top of that, they're needed for all of these new infrastructure plays. Of course, what's going on with geopolitical tensions and the new AI buildout.
So, what does this mean? Well, it means in 2025 performance, you might think the best market in the world, the SPY, is doing really well. Doing okay, but it's nowhere near doing as well as some of these other uh markets that are all commodities base and metals base. So, you can see here that there is a huge movement into that. And indeed, metals have been pretty much the best investment of the year.
Now, there are a couple of big trades starting to come through in the metals markets, and this doesn't mean it's over, but we did see a dark pull come in at the end of this week. And that, of course, marks one of the first trades that we've seen in a while on this sector in terms of any great size. And last time we had a couple of big ones in this accumulation phase during 2023 24. And then, of course, we've seen a little bit of action during this rally. And what actually happened after the last one was we got a little bit of volatility.
Now, why is this important? Well, of course, we've talked about gold particularly on the channel and gold is starting to come to very close levels of one of our major major targets, which is obviously 4,000 to 4200. Now, on the macro side, I'm way more bullish on it. I still think there's more left in the tank for gold and silver, but of course, in the volatility side, it's been so so crazily bullish. It's like the most bullish in my trading career I've ever seen this metal and it is just not pulling back. So, at some point that will come in and you've got to remember it's starting to hit crescendos right now when it comes to how many people are bullish.
Now, let's take a look at the commodities versus inflation expectations. This one here is from Tavi Costa. I like it. And what it's showing is that for a little while now, we've started to see kind of the uptick here in commodities markets. Now, at the same time, of course, inflation, well, it's, you know, wherever going nowhere.
Now, you guys have seen my 1970s chart overlay to now. And that was a stagflation period. And remember what happened? It dropped, it based. Sound familiar? It started to rally. Yeah. And then it based a little bit, and then it went ballistic, and we had big problems. Do you guys think that's going to happen again? It's something that I would keep in the back of my mind when it comes to the Fed now going with no dual mandate. Remember, they don't care about inflation. Oh, don't worry about it, guys. It's all going to fix itself. We're going to deal with the unemployment issue. That means they're probably going to do more cuts and they might even be forced to not be able to cut be cutting because of the debt situation and the long bonds. And this is one of the things we have to talk about in the future because there are issues here that could cause for the first time in a very long time, maybe ever really in the US history anyway, where we're not going to be able to cut as in they're not actually going to be able to do it and service off debt correctly. You'll see what I mean when we bring that up in the future.
So why are gold trading uh you know kind of magnets still going wild? Well, remember when you actually go and look at the MA the overall kind of fundamentals in some ways, gold stocks still look attractive when you compare them to maybe the MAG 7 or the MAG 9 stocks. You can have a look here. PE ratio is obviously very high. I don't like PE by itself. Of course, I like to look at the future more than anything else. Markets are future looking, not at the consistent amount right now. But either way, you know, gold still looks okay. And more importantly, a lot of these gold companies are able to now potentially sell their gold actually more at spot. A lot of those contracts came up and allowed them to actually repric themselves.
So, will gold continue to go up? I think so. In terms of gold miners, in some ways, juniors look better than the big ones. The big ones have had their epic first move, and I still think volatility is just around the corner.
Now, why are we going to see volatility? It's purely based on speculation, guys. Call volume to put volume. This chart I still I know you've probably seen it a few times already and you're thinking what the hell why stop bring this up man not happening. I think it will. Look at this. It's big guys. It's big and it's not going to change my opinion on bullishness. But I tell you what, it just makes me think there might be worthwhile having a little bit of powder. Maybe gold goes up 10% then drops 10% and is a net net zero. But I just feel like we're going to see it. And the reason 500 days of gold up without a 10% pullback, if you told me back when we went extremely bullish on this years ago this would happen, I would say no, that's you're mad. It's going to have big volatility. Turns out it hasn't. Maybe it's the central bank's buying, but yeah, that's a big run. And remember, this is now in the pointy end as the RSI on the monthly gets pretty pretty crazy, too. But based on our analysis of silver, our analysis of other things and Nautilus is here, we still see more upside. Remember, silver just closed in at $48. So even just since this chart, which we bought up for the last week and a half now, even since this chart, silver is going ballistic. And there's a good chance that it might continue because look at the average after signals 9 months later, 27% up. So even now it's not up anywhere near that amount. So the thing about this is even if we get volatility, it's still looking pretty good.
Now there are a couple of other charts going around. This one always comes up every so often. I feel like it comes back every two months and it has been coming back every 2 months for the last 5 6 years and that's of course the Buffett indicator. Now is it high? Yes. But just remember this indicator was genius back in the day. It's now less used and it's not going to ever be as useful again because we're in a global market. So the better way of doing it is to take global GDP, work it out and then of course say the US has the line share. Why do we know that? Well, of course we just saw top 25 companies in the world. Yeah, a lot of them US. So US is of course benefiting from that. But just remember that chart's scary. It shows overpriced action but at the same time it is not actionable anymore. You can't just go oh yes I'm going to sell the stocks. If you did that then you would have missed out on a lot of opportunity over the last decade.
Now, let's talk about the shutdown drama. Obviously, this will continue on for whatever it does. But the big thing here is, of course, the S&P 500 hasn't cared for the last couple of shutdowns. So, just remember, you can always put this one out of sight, out of mind. If it's used as an excuse, which it probably won't be, but if it is, then generally speaking, the markets do come back. You can see here in most cases after 12 months, it's been okay.
Another thing is that we've seen highs in September and October. Now, now we didn't know if we'd make highs in October. We obviously speculated we probably would, but now that we have, Blue Curtic has put together an interesting chart here that actually strengthening October. Now, remember, we thought October could be volatile. I still think it could be, but at this point, if October pulls through, it could be November and December pulling through, and we may not actually see a sell till January. And I I know you think that that's mad. Are you mad? I mean like a proper one, like one of those normal 8% style pullbacks, 5 to 8%. It's something to keep in the back of your mind. October is strengthening by the day because of these, but do remember earning season is coming up. We'll have a special on that later on this week. More good news for Q4. October returns obviously looking better when we have a September finish that's pretty good and we make new highs again here. Very similar details from Ryan Detri.
And another one that's worthwhile keeping the back of your mind, we've now been 6 months up straight for the NASDAQ. And what that tends to do is when we get this, okay, there's a little bit here, but 3 weeks later, 100%, 1 month later, 100%. Not too many reads, but 2 months later, 3 months later, feel like strength does continue to usually bring through strength. And remember, if you're a bit of a believer that we're in a bubble, bubbles tend to do this type of thing near the end, which is absolutely wild action. And we're starting to see that happening in a few stocks, but it's not what I would call across the board just yet. So, always go back, I would say, study 2021 and particularly study the ARK style stocks and you'll see what I mean by everybody being in. That was a very uh interesting kind of bubble in a particular area. Another one that I would suggest, and I've done a lot of work on it, is the 2016 Chinese market that went absolutely wild. And of course, it really did get everyone in. I I still remember that one like it was yesterday because I remember not only trading it, but at the same time, I remember how people felt before and after, which I think is very important to note.
Now, what about alts? What about Bitcoin? Is Bitcoin happening? Well, Bitcoin is improving, which is pretty good. You can see here this chart from Swiss Block. What it shows us is alts versus Bitcoin. And you can clearly see that alts are doing nothing. In fact, they've been declining. We've got an alt in today's video I wanted to show you guys. And then at the same time, you can see here that we've got resistance and maybe a bit of support. So, is Bitcoin improving? Yes. Is Bitcoin about to hit an all-time high? Probably. And at the same time, alts are coming down. there could be a chance that we get that kind of pickup uh in alt season if it's going to happen. Generally, it's November, December if we're going to go based on previous alt cycles and previous, of course, Bitcoin cycles. So far, that is kind of happening.
Another thing is to come from abundance, guys. We always talk about that on the channel. Abundance mindset changed the game for me. Changed the game for a lot of you guys out there. You tell me in the comment section. Let me know if it has for you. There's always another opportunity. Don't chase stuff because you missed it. Make sure the risk reward is there.
Now, one of the reasons I said this is this is one of the hated sectors of the year. Healthcare. There's two real hated sectors. Energy just slightly improved recently, particularly oil services. And then there's healthcare. And look at healthcare. Thrust last week and then all of a sudden it's the best performing sector of the week pretty much. So you can see here that things happen and that's where the insiders have been recently accumulating a position. So we've started to see a breakout and that's against the press. Remember, if it's in the press, it's in the price.
Now, what's the most important thing when we're talking about forecasting past this next couple of months, it's going to be structure. What happens in the next 1 to 6 months will matter so much to the potential of a recession or not. So, of course, on this channel, we'll be tracking that. Remember that one, guys. And although this data stat is changing, and I'll I'll um see if Wayne upgrades this in a few days, but October was the month that we thought might be volatile. We knew early in September was likely going to be October if anything and so far October is coming in stronger. So yes, it could still be the most volatile month, but we need a reason. I think the importance here is that it has to actually break down below something. And remember, one of those things is the daily 20 moving average.
So if we look here at the S&P, we've still got advanced decline going up. That's bullish, guys. We've got some little reds here. You could argue that might mean a little selling, but the new high did come in. So that kind of means that if it comes back to the daily 20, what's going to happen around that 6600 zone, we're probably still going to see buyers coming through. Another thing to note here is that when it comes to the overall US 500, the market has still been making a series of higher highs and higher lows. So this is the futures market action. little bit of selling into the close, but generally speaking, it is still making higher highs and higher lows.
So, let's take a look now at the options. So, when it comes to the S&P 500, you can see that we went into positive gamma last week. And what that basically means is that we're above some of the option strikes and it was pushing through a little bit of a squeeze coming into the markets. That was led mostly by Nvidia at least initially and of course healthcare sector also picked up at the same time. for the Monday session. You guys can see here we're kind of sandwiched between around 6670 on the overall support and that 6720 which is pretty much just where we closed on the uh Friday. So basically we keep going up you have to think it's going to start to lead into a further kind of rally. And the really the main aim I guess for most people is going to be about 6,800 and then 7K on the top end in terms of where it could go to. For now though, just remember we're looking to see whether the market actually does fall and it just hasn't shown those signs yet. And so you have to go with of course the direction of trend.
When it comes to Tesla, Tesla pushed through and managed to get up to that kind of 450 level. Then it went a little bit higher. Then we got that announcement coming out from Tesla which wasn't very good and it's still holding around that 430. Now it actually went below 430 but as you guys saw during the end of the close it came straight back up to where that put wall is in these markets. So 430 420 is still the most important support this week for the market. It did hit the daily 20 which we'll see soon and 500 is ultimately where a lot of people want to see it go to. So some negative news for it but still holding on as best it can.
What about Nvidia? Nvidia is currently in positive gamma and it's currently moving to the way up. So, of course, from the TA side, kind of looking at that 200 target. Can it get there over the next couple of weeks? And then, of course, IBIT, which is basically the big options trade for Bitcoin, continues to angle in on that target, which we basically got to, which is 70. And uh if we get through 70, you guys can see here doesn't matter which strike we're looking at. 70 707 707 70 a very strong breakout level.
When it comes to gold, guys, it is really just coming into that 359 360 zone for GLD and it's got 350 as the support. Let's jump into the charts. First up, healthcare was a big improvement last week. The thrust came through. Then it had basically three sessions of uptick in terms of how it's been trading so far. and it's already getting close to that first supply zone on the left hand side. This was a big deal for this sector. And of course, we also saw a little bit of life in oil services last week. And while oil itself, yeah, didn't really do very good things. It was oil services and energy stocks that started to look better and they're still a sleeper area. It's geopolitical. It's one of the tougher trades of the year, but I could still see some activation happening here. I'd be interested to watch it over the next month.
Now, what about the bonds market? It's starting to uptick a little bit. It's a very early days. There's no way that this is enough sign to say, "Oh, yes, fear is coming back in." But if this gets above 2.9 as a ratio again, then we'll start to talk about, okay, maybe we've got a actual proper pullback coming in. But just remember the bonds market, it's like the calm before the storm. There's no storm. Yep. And of course, we're looking for those signs.
Another thing is that the US dollar has been trapped and of course didn't move too much. But what I did notice was that XLF has started to show you a bit of a slowdown here. And when you compare it to the SPY or SPX, which we'll do here, you'll notice that health something about financials isn't as good anymore. So financials have really been declined now since the April kind of, you know, bust off in the markets and that's showing us that we're past that midcycle. So, I know a lot of people say early cycle this, early cycle that. If healthcare starts to power up, doesn't usually spread the the word of early cycle to me, but we'll see what ends up happening there. And of course, we'll be tracking it. But healthcare is certainly going a little bit more and financials certainly weakening a little bit more across the board.
Gold pressuring the highs, still at higher highs and higher lows, guys. I wouldn't be going against this trade yet. Uh but I'd be cautious on the of course volatility. Silver is just so strong. 48 bucks. Wow. Wow, guys. I did not think it would be here this fast. You know, my target was like this for like 6 to9 months away. So, uh yeah, it's it's it's going well. And I know I think it could go well into the all-time highs and potentially eventually get to like that $70 $80 target. Now, that's not to say, oh wow, I don't think there's volatility. I think there will be, but still going very, very strong.
Tesla came down and touched the daily 20, closed at 430, which is around the most traded area in this dull market, and we'll actually get probably a bit more of an idea of its direction this week. And Nvidia held up relatively well with the breakout last week, pull back, and then of course found some buyers. So, for now, semiconductors and stuff, they're still getting that flow in. You can see here the semiconductors sector still doing pretty well. No reason to say that's bearish.
Chinese markets very strong on the Shanghai composite. You can see here the pressure it's putting on the upside. Several stocks doing the same thing. And the hang actually broke to a new high. So of course it's doing very nicely. And the Russell 2000, you can see here Russell 2000 beating the spy. And that's the kind of thing that we thought it might do as it got to that ratio. So you can see here at all I think it's an alltime high for yeah the Russell 2K. So it's continuing up strong and this is just showing you that broadening pattern in breadth which some people are going to like. But if it keeps doing this, remember actually a negative for the markets. We want large caps to beat the Russell if it's going to be a good uh period of time over the next couple of years.
What about NASDAQ? NASDAQ is up. NASDAQ's down a little. Uh generally speaking though, hard to tell it's actually going to a sell or anything like that. And what about Bitcoin? Bitcoin came and it approached the all-time highs. Yes, very good trading. If you got that 114 trade, well done to you. Uh, that was really sweet. If you bought it earlier and then had the stop in the correct area or bought it here and the stop in the correct area, well done to you as well. You stuck to your rules. And if you lost a position in here and then you re-entered, even better. That means you're actually very strong because that's mental toughness to be able to go and recognize that a trade got you in an area and then of course recognize, oh, whoops, it got me, but it probably got everyone else. Now it's moving on to the next direction. Look, it might sit here for a little bit, but I think we're going to be seeing probably a new all-time high for Bitcoin at sometime soon. And what this is telling us is that the crypto market hasn't most likely finished and we may be going into the normal season. So, what that usually means is other big ones come through and then of course we get alts.
Now, one of the alts that I always look at, and maybe it's wrong to look at this nowadays, but Cardano. And the reason I look at this one is because this is often that kind of like secondary alt that that kind of to me ticks off the alt season sometimes. I mean there are others as well that can do this, but I look at a bulk like kind of, you know, all of them together. And I just noticed that doesn't matter which one you look at nowadays, they all kind of look like base structures with coil and that could mean a breakout is just around the corner. What's your favorite altcoin now that's in the big side? Let's say top 100. uh let me know in the comments down below and maybe we'll do a special on it. But yeah, I can see a lot of holding here. It's certainly not a solicitation to buy anything, guys. Please practice risk management across all all stuff right now. But look, it's it just it looks strong.
I think there will be volatility in the metals market in particular. I just cannot see that not coming through at some point soon. But in general, of course, it's important to note that when the trend is up, especially right now, everything is being pointed towards uh the bull side has been for a little bit. And why that is is because remember, they're they're using every tool in the shed to try to get this market up. And it's like the China thing with liquidity. Liquidity in China is what's really pulling it along. If it wasn't for the central bank stimulating the rubbish out of that economy, it would probably still be basing. So, it's always about following the flow, guys. That's what we try to do here. And at this point, of course, we're looking for those signs. We'll have a special on the earnings reports coming up. And that could be also kickoff of bad stuff as well. But October sure to be a volatile month. So, stick around. Make sure to check out our flash sale on our courses if you're interested. And then, of course, check me out on X, LinkedIn, etc. if you want to watch more. Thank you so much. You have a fantastic weekend and we'll see you for now. Bye guys.