Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We'll talk about Bitcoin first, which is potentially topping out, reversing. We'll see if the signal is confirmed or if it's pending. This will be the main topic of this video. We'll then talk about altcoins that are correcting more than Bitcoin. We'll look at the trade I still have open on Solana, which I've managed quite well recently. You'll see what I did and that it's still half open. We'll talk about all of that right after. Three altcoins I was asked to analyze: ENA, Pump, and Centrifuge. And we'll talk about the US market here. Before I start, I remind you that you only have 4 days left to join the "Become a Trader" mentorship and take advantage of the current big offer, with €400 off. Who is this mentorship for? For everyone, whether you are a beginner, intermediate, or advanced. You will have a real framework here, whether it's through a course that is a step-by-step journey, well thought out and to be followed in order of modules, module 1, module 2, etc., with 30 hours of video, 15 progressive modules. We talk about technical analysis, money management. I share my best strategies, my best setups so that you can draw inspiration from them and especially build your own strategy. I show you how to properly place your stop loss, your SL, to have a profitable method. We cover psychology, money management, long-term setups, and short-term setups. Trading in a range, trading in a trend. Here, you have over 30 hours of video, a lot of concrete examples, and at the end, you will be 100% autonomous. And on top of that, you have the addition here, which is the big addition for 2026, the "Become a Trader" mentorship with live sessions. Okay, a live market briefing once a week where we simply take stock of the market, analysis, scenarios, Q&A, much more advanced analyses than on YouTube. Why? Because, well, the people in the mentorship are much more trained. But of course, if you are a beginner, you will feel comfortable because I adapt, of course, based on the questions and the live session we will have. And also replays. If you're afraid of not being available every week, there's no problem. You progress at your own pace, you will have replays available, and even if you miss one or two from time to time, it's not a big deal, you will still progress well. And the monthly trading clinic, where the goal is simply to monitor the blockages you have in your trading, whether it's from an execution perspective, a psychological perspective, money management, it doesn't matter, and simply to unblock these blockages you might have. You also have access here to the private group where there is a channel with all the members of the "Become a Trader" mentorship. You can discuss with them, share setups, and it's also where I communicate for, well, for the people who are inside the "Become a Trader" mentorship. You have personalized coaching here. At the end of the mentorship, we simply have a one-on-one session together. The goal is simply to define your trader profile, to have an adapted strategy, and we have a thorough review. This is a major added value, and lifetime support. I am always available, I respond, I respond to private messages, I respond in the group, and the goal is simply that I support you until you are 100% autonomous and 100% profitable. So there you have it, the big addition here with the mentorship, automatically the price will evolve. So currently, you can take advantage of the €400 off before the major update in terms of pricing, and you only have a few days left. So if you want to join the mentorship, take advantage of this new year to train yourself, put all the chances on your side, and ensure that 2026, 27, and beyond are profitable for you, I invite you to click on the first link in the description.
So, I'll start here with Bitcoin. It's correcting, correcting strongly. We still haven't broken this range high. That's why be careful, don't rush. We saw it recently, I was able to take longs on the short term, but just because I'm taking longs on the short term, on this bullish move, doesn't mean I'm bullish long term. You really have to differentiate between trading on the 15-minute chart and making decisions on the weekly chart. Two completely different things. Just because I take longs on the short term, as you may have seen on ETH, on Solana, in trend continuation, doesn't mean it's off to the moon. And I've always been clear with you, don't get too excited. We have a reference point. Our reference point is this level. We made a new high, so it will now be this level. But until we get a daily close, and ideally a weekly close, above this level, we are still in a range. Okay? And there's no recovery, it's better to be patient. I've seen many who are a bit excited about the recent moves, thinking it's going to break. Retracement, and it's possible, and we can break and retrace. I'm not saying it's impossible yet. I'm just saying that until I have real confirmation, for now, I'm in short to medium-term bullish mode, that's a fact. Why? Because we have moving averages. I have moving averages pointing upwards. Well, a slight degradation, we'll talk about it again, but I had all moving averages pointing upwards. The 15-minute, the 1-hour, the 4-hour. On the altcoins, we had some pumps that were quite interesting. So there's potential for trend continuation, but short-term trend continuation is not the same as long-term trend continuation. So for now, the long term isn't moving. That is to say, my analysis from yesterday, the day before yesterday, 5 days ago, a week ago, remains the same. We are still stuck within a range. The difference is that here, we had a liquidity grab. We hunted here the, well, the stop losses, various short stop losses, except that we didn't have a short squeeze. I remind you, above this type of high, we have a lot of stops, okay? Quite a few stops. And when we go there, you have to watch how the market behaves. Do we have a short squeeze or, on the contrary, do we have absorption? That means that on the other side, there are sellers who will absorb the buyers who will execute. Because when a short stop loss executes, it's simply a market buy. So it creates buying pressure. And is there absorption on the other side? There was absorption here because at the moment we made this high, we had quite a few, well, stop losses that were triggered and were absorbed. So we don't have a breakout signal. For now, there's nothing indicating that. Now, we are potentially even re-entering. Why? Because if we start closing below this impulsive candle, we re-enter the value area high. Moreover, when I look here on the 4-hour, H1, we are making lower lows, lower highs. We see the difference here between higher lows, higher highs at this level. Okay, very good. And at this level, a topping structure with lower lows, lower highs. And here, lower lows. And we see our bearish momentum, the change in moving averages. So currently, there's a slight change on the short term. We haven't lost the classic 1-hour tunnel yet. When we lose the 15-minute, it's to come back and test the 1-hour and then see the reaction we get. For now, we're losing the 15-minute, the 3-minute is acting as resistance, the 15-minute as well. We'll be in a compression here. We'll have to see the resolution of this compression. Now, if we start settling below the 1-hour and 4-hour, well, it's to come back and test much lower and come back to our POC around $87,500. That would be a good area to locate. Here, we would have our point of control. So, if I put pivots, just, oops, I didn't want to open that. There. Just to have reference points, let's put weekly pivot points. So, oops, we have a good confluence here around $90,000 at the 4-hour tunnel level. Then, we have the monthly pivot point which is lower, $88,675. Yeah. Which is our main pivot point. So, I'll add, I had removed them, it's true. Resistance one, support one. Let's see what we have. Globally, we put a top around the weekly pivot point. Well, we broke it, we re-entered it, and now we're going back below it. So no, for now, it's not the most incredible signal. So, from my side, seeing this, what do I do? Because it's always good to tell you, "Okay, this is happening, but what concrete actions am I taking?" Currently, I'm not looking for, I have a loss of momentum. So on intraday, I'm no longer looking for as many longs as I was looking for recently. But recently, we were looking at altcoins, doing trend continuation, we were in "Okay, it's good, we're going all out, the 15-minute tunnel is interesting." Okay, now I have a slight sign of degradation, loss of momentum. Okay, well, I took two trades on one trade on Ether, I showed it to you. There it is. I took a trade on Bitcoin, it was at this level. Two winning trades on Solana, it's ongoing. I partially closed it, we'll see it right after. We benefited from this rise, and you see, we can do this and this, and we come back to the same point, except that in the meantime, I have three winning trades. There. And that's the difference between trading and investing. And yet, the market can do this and this in two or three weeks. Well, if the operations were good, we can generate profits. Now, every pump has a pause phase or a retracement phase, or a deeper retracement. I can't know that. What I see here is that I have a weakening. My goal is not to anticipate, it's to ask myself, is this the bottom? Are we going lower? I don't know. What's certain is that I have a loss of momentum. From the moment I have a loss of momentum on the very short term, as I was doing just before, I'll be wary because we have a potential return of sellers. Oops, I'll remove the pivots. We have a potential return of sellers here, the fact of going back below the moving averages. So I'll wait. If we start going back above the 15-minute, make a new high, and go strong again, and we have the same context as we had here for a few days, from the 2nd to the 6th, that's a very pleasant market environment for me to trade in, according to my profile, because I have upward-trending moving averages. I'm in my preferred market conditions, which don't happen all the time because the market is more often in a range than in a trend, but when they happen, you have to be present, and you see, in this little window we had, well, we were present. As for me, I don't know what happened on your end in terms of trading. On Discord, I was able to talk with some who took some trades, but currently, well, I took three trades at the beginning of January, which is pretty good. I don't trade 20 trades a month. Sometimes in a month, I only have 5 or 6 trades. Okay, it depends on the market context. Now, if I have to wait and wait again for this type of move to happen, I will wait. Here, I'm talking purely about the short term, and the market can do whatever it wants. The advantage of a trading capital is that I am 100% cash. If I have no trades open, I am full cash. USDT, USDC, etc. And I'm not subject to volatility. The market can do this, my trading capital won't move. That's the advantage when you trade, of course. So, I'm going to wait. Now, as I said, on the medium term, yeah, what we're doing here isn't great. Typically, in this kind of situation, I don't want to scare you. After all, these are probabilities, it's not because it's going to happen. But very often, when we have a false breakout and a re-entry into a value area, whether it's high or low. Okay? So the high value area here or the low value area at this level, it's to go and test the opposite extremity. That's very often the case. Here, we re-enter, okay? We come back close to the POC of the opposite extremity, we have a new pump, we re-enter again, we go and test the opposite extremity. We re-enter upwards, we go back and test the opposite extremity. Now, if we re-enter, it's not systematic, but we have strong probabilities, okay, to go and test our badge. Well, I don't like this type of signal, so I'll wait. And of course, if we make a new high at this level, or at least if we go back above the moving averages, if we close above $93,000, then okay, why not regain some momentum and do trend continuation again. So, I'm in wait-and-see mode. That's it, I'm in patience mode. I was very bullish on the short term, and you saw it recently, I was in "Okay, it's going well, the market context is very interesting," but I was the first to tell you, be careful, until we break this, it's not going to take off long term, and I don't know what will happen in the coming days. And your goal is never to anticipate, it's to react to what you see. What do we see currently? It's a rejection at the upper extremity. Maybe in 2 hours this will be invalidated, we'll do this, maybe. I can't predict it, and I will react and adjust my analysis based on what happens. So, here, I invite you to be cautious. Be careful with the longs you've taken as well. Was it short term, long term? That's for you to ask yourself. Also be careful, I've been through this, we've all been through this, a short-term position turning into a long-term position because you don't dare to close it. When you don't dare to close it, it's generally due to two things. Either it's because you don't want to lose the money you've invested because you have a problem with managing your capital, your money management. Either you have too much capital, or you have too much risk per trade. Which means that when you enter a position, you are too exposed, and this impacts your emotional state because you see too large sums of money. Or it's out of pride, where we remove the money aspect, it's because you don't want to admit you're wrong, because you think either your strategies don't work, or you simply don't accept being wrong, even though it's normal when you trade, you can't have a 100% success rate, of course. You can even have a 40% success rate, be wrong more often than right, and still make money, it's possible. But very often, there can be other cases, but I prefer to stick to the most common ones. It's one of these two cases. Either too much money, or a problem of ego. Okay? In trading, ego is very often present, and if it's too present, okay, it will clearly lead you to your downfall. Clearly, we can say that. So, here's what I'll generally be watching for on Bitcoin. And that's it, I'm in wait-and-see mode for now. We can very well pull back, come back lower. Well, I'm waiting. We saw it yesterday, I was the first to tell you. We're not in a good zone to take swings because we're at a resistance level.
Regarding Ethereum, it's pretty similar. It's making a bearish engulfing candle. That is, we are engulfing this candle. We had consecutive green days, and this red candle is engulfing one, maybe even two days of gains. Engulfing candles are never very good signals. You see, we take the low of this candle, we have an engulfing candle, we come back a bit into the past. So, this is also an example of an engulfing candle. We engulf, we encompass the entire candle, and on top of that, these patterns, I find them even more bearish than those. Why? Because with this type of engulfing candle, we will also make a higher high. You see, we have a wick that makes a higher high. That means we have a liquidity grab, a selling reaction, we trap buyers, and on top of that, we engulf. These are very violent and often very bearish candles. Here, we have something similar. You see? Oops, we make a higher high here and we engulf and close lower. This is also a signal that is generally not good to see. And often, they are, yes, simply bearish signals. I don't know if I have other examples. I know more examples on Bitcoin than on Ethereum for this type of engulfing candle, but I've surely seen them before, and I know there are others, but these are cases where, oops, we have an example here as well, higher high, engulfing, and you see, after that, it didn't lead to -80%, but we still had a good drop. Well, in any case, on Ethereum too, we're coming back to test the upper extremity. We have a bearish signal, we have a first topping signal, which will potentially be retested. We can very well do this and this and have this market topping structure. It's possible. In any case, we have a large accumulation phase. We won't do this. Very unlikely. Unless there's a catalyst, extremely negative news, but that's not the most likely. Now, we are here, I'm putting moving averages. Oops, in the 1-hour tunnel, we lost the 15-minute which was acting as support. For a while, we can consolidate, have a retracement, do something like this, it's possible. And then, taking a trade on the 1-minute to retest a retracement is entirely conceivable. In any case, I'm in a similar principle to Bitcoin. I prefer to wait to get back above the 15-minute, find good momentum, especially since we're not far from this resistance zone, and especially because Bitcoin is at resistance. And if Bitcoin rejects, then Ethereum will also reject. There's a strong correlation between Ethereum, altcoins, and BTC. So, no signal for now of a bottom on Ethereum. And the signal is if we go above $3,500.
On Solana, regarding my position. So, what did I do? I invalidated 50% of my position when we went below this level. So that gives me a risk of about 1.9 points. Well, that's a decent trade. Of course, it's always easy to say, "Ah yes, too bad, it didn't go higher," or "Ah, I didn't take profit at the highest point." Yes, that's because we can't know. Okay? Why did I invalidate part of it? Because here, I simply have an inversion of my momentum. Making lower highs on the 1-hour. It's not the topping structure of the century, but there's a slight inversion. We lost the 15-minute tunnel here. Okay, we see that we went below it. It then acted as resistance. So, not a great signal. Okay, I invalidated 50%, and I have a stop loss for the other 50% a bit lower. Because I think if we really break down and close on the H4 below this level, then we would already have a kind of market top. Okay. If, in addition, we don't manage to re-enter and we make a new lower low, I prefer to exit 100% because for me, it's to retrace. I'm not saying it's going to hit my stop, it's quite far. Especially since I'm at break-even. If I had moved it to break-even, but at least to come back and test a lower level, and I don't want to stay in a trade where there's a potential inversion of my momentum, even if it's to do this. Well, maybe it's to, maybe I'll enter here, or maybe not at all, but in any case, I preferred to secure this trade, especially since it's a good, good start to the year, a good start to the year for me. You saw with two winning trades on intraday, this one is a bit more swing. We saw it, we opened it around the 2nd, January 2nd. We are here on the 7th. Five days. Okay. It might take me a bit longer. It might be that I cut it here. Well, in any case, I don't want to force this trade, especially, I remind you, on altcoins, it's not exactly to the moon long term. We see where we're coming from. If I put the long-term tunnels here, we see that we are in a downtrend. So, it's not like when we are in a momentum recovery where it's much more pleasant to trade, these kinds of moments for weeks. Here, you see, we have a small window of a few days where it was rather pleasant to trade because we have the conditions, we have the volatility, we have the trend, etc. Well, this window lasted for weeks, even months, and here it's even more pleasant to trade, but we are not in this kind of market context. So, that's why we also have to be more cautious because the market can turn around quite sharply. Regarding altcoins, globally all altcoins are correcting, a few altcoins are standing out, TRX, PEPE, TON, but globally, it's not a favorable context here for, well, it depends, there are still strong altcoins that can be interesting on retracement, but the problem is the same, Bitcoin is rather weak currently. If it starts to retrace, altcoins can follow, and well, you have to watch. Okay, which altcoin remains strong? Render is in a rather nice dynamic. But personally, right now, I'm focusing much more on the strongest, the biggest cryptos, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, given the context. I won't expose myself too much to small altcoins, so I'm more in a wait-and-see mode because Bitcoin is the leader.
Now, the altcoins I was asked about. Let's switch to weekly here. On Ethena. Well, we've come back to test our lower extremity. Okay. Now, what we need is a buying reaction because here, it's true that we are at very low levels, in a very good area that absolutely must be defended, because if we start closing weekly and making lower lows, we're really breaking down. Globally, a weekly close below 18 cents would be a confirmation of exiting this range downwards. That would be really bad. So, here we are coming back to a zone where demand has always been greater than supply. Then, on daily, we have a reversal structure. We clearly see it's a W breakout. Okay, so it's normal to have this kind of impulse. We're going back above the 4-hour tunnel. Now, the structure is too weak to reverse everything long term. We clearly see where we're coming from. We have a topping and retracement pattern here, a new topping and retracement pattern. We see the M tops here. On top of that, we've pulled back to the neckline. What we need to reverse this MTP is the same thing, but in reverse. A W here. If we do that, well, then we're in a very good context to say, "Okay, I've put in a bottom, and I can start a correction phase and at least test a minimum of 0.382 or even 0.18 in confluence with the neckline. That's a good zone. 60 cents is a good zone to take profits. Now, have we done that? For now, we haven't. So, let's not start anticipating a structure that hasn't been realized. For me, the best thing to do now is to wait. You wait, you say, "Very well, if we start going lower, it's over, there's nothing to do." However, if we start structuring a larger pattern, well yes, we can put in a bottom and potentially have a 100-200% retracement. That's entirely possible. Now, every structure must have an invalidation, and the invalidation is this: if we go below this level, then we get out because we don't want to hold a crypto that makes an all-time low. That's the only setup I see here for Ethena, from my side. We need a stronger buying reaction than what we have currently.
Next, I have an analysis of Pump. Let's not take that, let's take something else. Or maybe Bybit Mexi. Yes, I'll take Mexi. Oops. So, where are we? Not the easiest chart to analyze. Already, on the long term, I don't have enough history, so I can't do a weekly analysis here. So, let's switch to daily. Yeah, not the most interesting chart either. We are pulling back to this resistance zone. That acted as support. We are rejecting. We did go above the 4-hour, 15-minute, 1-hour, but from a price action perspective, it's blocking a bit. Already, for long-term investment, I advise to always have at least 2 years of chart history. This is too little to make a long-term investment decision. In any case, from a technical point of view, for me, there's nothing to do here. Especially since on the weekly, we've really broken down, we're pulling back, we see it clearly. So, we're at resistance. For me, there's not much to do here. Especially since going above the moving averages makes it difficult to take shorts because we're a bit at support. Honestly, it's a chart. I would look to do nothing at all. To have a bigger bottom, it would be good, at most, to reject here and do something like this. And then break back. Then, okay, we could be in a good configuration to take longs because we would have a pump and a pullback on another neckline. But that's the only setup I would see. See how we had here. Oops, W structure daily, pump, retracement to make a bigger structure here. And then, okay, then it's interesting, but here we have nothing at all. It's not the most interesting chart. We're at resistance, so no, for me, when I see this kind of chart, I prefer to wait for a better period of consolidation, a more interesting price development to position myself.
And the last crypto. Don't hesitate to leave in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze. I have Centrifuge. So, where are we with Centrifuge? I entered Centrifuge because there was the whole real-world asset narrative. I entered at the break of this H range at this level. I took partial profits on the way up. Then I took profits late, I exited around here. So, I have a part that exited, I exited at break-even, and well, a part that exited with gains, but we have a similar example here that you shouldn't hold altcoins until the end because, well, these cryptos tend towards zero in general, especially against Bitcoin. And well, the narrative has passed. Will it come back? I don't know. It's very rare for narratives to come back. Now, from a technical point of view, again, not the most interesting chart. We've made a lower low here. We're consolidating around this lower low. The only setup I would see here is, again, a buying reaction with a W structure. Here, a long at the time of the break. Stop loss below the low, and a weekly close, not just a wick, really a weekly close below, and after a retracement, look for a 2:1, 3:1. That's really the only setup I'll take, otherwise there's not much here that would interest me when I look at this kind of chart. I wouldn't wait for a break of this level because it would be too high. At most, a deviation and re-entry, that can also be taken, but you still need a good buying reaction. But again, there are many charts like this that resemble Centrifuge and are in contexts that don't make me want to position myself. In any case, not now, I'm more in a phase where I prefer to wait. So, I've covered Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the altcoins. Be cautious for the coming days. If you want to train yourself and know how to navigate better in this kind of context, especially now with the addition of live sessions, I will share my opinion even more advanced, and I will help you, of course, to develop your method and your strategy. I invite you to click on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening, and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.