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Iran would tell America, saying, "If by now, this 6 billion dollars that was said to come, has not yet come, then I will collect fees for ships passing through." To be truthful, I have looked at this, and it is clear that all of this is a lure. Because the person who will decide, who will get 300 billion dollars, is in the United States. Having this information, I can see clearly, saying, "Oh my goodness." It is clear information that if at that time, if the US had not lifted the blockade, it would not be long before internal chaos would occur in Iran, of a kind that could not be controlled. Oh wow, if you look at it like this, it means this is a weakness, a major weakness of Iran, which makes Iran have to come and accept this deal, right? >> It turns out that the professor sees that time is now on Trump's side. >> Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers. >> We are currently in a period of destroying the current world order. >> Therefore, at the international level, it is very dangerous. >> And if you don't want to miss good content, please subscribe. >> For the next 2 years, as long as our financial institution system remains strong, we will not be in a bad situation. >> For those who want to upgrade their knowledge in depth, we now have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe, and you will receive exclusive content and seminars from TR KP and Team Business Tomorrow. >> Because of this, the thing that Iran is watching very closely, that they are hoping for a lot, there are two things. One is that their money, which has been frozen, and this must be traced back to the fact that this is Iran's money, not America's money. It is money from the time of the Shah, over 40 years ago. The Shah imported goods from various countries, and they used money, which was dollars, which they got from selling oil, and deposited it in the central bank of that country, this country, that country, to prepare for importing goods from those countries, to pay for them. This money, when the revolution happened, and not just any revolution, Iran seized the American embassy and took hostages. America froze, ordered to freeze, Iran's money scattered all over the world. No one is allowed to return the money to Iran. No one is allowed to release the money. This means that everyone is afraid, because if they release money to Iran, that country will be cut off from trading with America's banking system. So no one dared to do this for a long time. And I was not sure how much money it was at first, but from what I've seen on social media, they are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe up to 120,000 or even 10,000. This negotiation, news of it came out from the beginning, that Iran was hoping, they were hoping to get this, this release of frozen money, perhaps up to 12, 1.2, 1, 12 billion dollars, with the first installment being 6 billion dollars. After that, not long after, another 6 billion dollars. And there is also a lure, saying that once an agreement is reached, the United States will take charge, find money from where, from Arab countries, and use it to set up a fund to invest in Iran, a large sum of money, because they bombed and destroyed their property. So, okay, it gives them an opportunity to get money, to have money to invest and rebuild, 300 billion dollars. All of this, there is a feeling that this is something that Iran might be dreaming of. And besides this, when the United States lifted the oil sanctions on Iran, it was only a temporary 60-day lift. Iran might have someone involved who hopes that when the time comes, it will be a permanent and complete lifting of all sanctions, both primary and secondary sanctions, and all that, completely lifted. To be truthful, I think looking at it, it's clear that all of this is a lure, a lure. Because the person who will decide, the gate, the goal, for Iran, to get money, from the frozen money, to get 300 billion dollars, where to place this goal, is in the United States. Therefore, they will keep postponing it, making this goal bigger or smaller. There will never be a clear indication that it will actually happen. And besides the sanctions, when the 60 days are up, there is no guarantee that the sanctions will be permanently lifted. I look at it, I see it in two layers. First, the general public will cheer, saying Iran won, America lost. I don't think so. Trump has a hidden strategy. It's like he's tricking Iran into being happy, but in reality, it cannot happen. But I'm confused, why would Iran agree? Because if they squeeze, if Iran keeps squeezing the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will go up. And when it reaches a certain point, Trump will also suffer, because when it reaches a certain point, it will worsen the global economy, and Trump will be blamed for the global economy. Besides this, when the global economy worsens, it will also affect the American economy. And what's bad is that when the global oil price rises, it will inevitably affect the retail oil price in America, making it higher too. I'm thinking, is there something that makes Iran agree to sign this deal? Until there was news, and this news was published in The New York Times on July 4th, and printed in the print edition on the 5th, yesterday. If you bring it up, you will see that information has been leaked from Iran, that the governor of the central bank, the governor of the national bank of Iran, has sent a letter to the leader, Khamenei, the son, the current leader, and told him, >> The country is about to face a big problem, the biggest problem is that by the end of August, in two months, July and August, in two months, the people will have no food to eat and no medicine. These are two of the four basic necessities, they will disappear, they will be difficult to obtain. >> It's difficult because of America's blockade. >> Therefore, they said that they have looked at it and said that they should accept the deal to have the blockade lifted. When I got this information, I could see it clearly, saying, "Oh my goodness." This is a sign, clear information that if at that time, if the US had not lifted the blockade, it would not be long before internal chaos would occur in Iran, of a kind that could not be controlled. People have nothing to eat. Some people, I've seen on social media, say that some families eat only one meal a day in Iran. It's really difficult. And we must not forget that they have been under sanctions for a long time. I sat and watched, is it really that bad? So I went to research what Iran imports, food-wise. They import a lot annually, 6 billion, 8 billion, 9 billion dollars. And it includes rice, including jasmine rice, vegetable oil, and many other foods. When this blockade occurred, it prevented them from entering. Before this, Iran was under sanctions, which caused them problems in importing goods from various countries. When it came to payment, they had to create mechanisms to circumvent, to avoid, because their money, which was held in various banks, in central banks, in dollars, could not be withdrawn. So they had to use methods, to circulate, which seemed quite complicated, but it allowed them to survive and import food, medicine, and hospital equipment. They could still import them continuously by using indirect payment methods, as much as possible to circumvent the American system. Until this blockade occurred, when America blocked the strait, it became a problem for the import process. Not only could ships not enter, but the suppliers also became worried. But if suddenly, even if America said it would lift the blockade now, would they really get paid for sending goods to Iran? There is no guarantee because Iran cannot open letters of credit and other things normally. Oh wow, if you look at it like this, it means this is a weakness, a major weakness of Iran, which makes Iran have to come and accept this deal. But now that they have accepted the deal, what Iran gets is that they are preparing, their oil tankers, however many there are, are positioned at the mouth of the strait. Once it's agreed, they will release their ships first. Therefore, Iran's oil will go out, but what they have to exchange is not just their oil. The oil from the Arab countries, from various Arab countries, can also go out. Therefore, oil from Saudi Arabia, oil from the UAE, oil from Bahrain, etc., has started to come out. This has made Trump look good because the oil price has dropped. But looking at it like this, I sit and imagine, trying to look into the future from Iran's perspective. At this time, it is clear that we have a weakness, and this weakness has now been exposed to the world. The world knows, The New York Times knows, Trump must also know. Therefore, Trump, by his nature, when he sees a weakness, he will press on that weakness. Therefore, as of today, Trump is playing for time, because the longer they close it, the longer they can drag it out. By the end of August, they will not be able to clear the system to import goods. Iran will have to kneel and surrender. Oh wow, looking at it now, I think if Iran has come this far and surrenders, I don't think it's possible. So I guess, this is not me supporting any side, and I'm not cheering for chaos or disorder in the world. But I am trying to weigh it, looking at the national interest as the main factor, and putting myself in the shoes of an Iranian administrator. If I were them, >> I would take the opportunity to pressure America, to pressure them greatly. At this time, sending out oil, I would breathe a sigh of relief. Two or three, two or three breaths of relief. At this time, as I said, oil, Iran, if they send out ships, maybe 20 ships, their own, and sail to Asia. Now, if Iran wants to sell oil again, they have to wait for these ships. Because these ships, sailing to Asia, will take about a month to unload the oil, and then sail back, another month. Therefore, before they can actually sell oil, it will be the end of August. In the meantime, if they open it, they themselves get nothing. From before, they got to sell oil and get money. Now, if they sell to China, they get yuan, at least they can import some goods from China. But if they open it further, the ones who will sell oil will be the Arab countries, not them. Therefore, their enthusiasm to open the Strait of Hormuz further, I think it has decreased now. And if I were them, I think they would start to consider that if so, they must go back to using the squeeze on the Strait of Hormuz, in a way that squeezes to make the oil price skyrocket, to make America, to make Trump, to gain an advantage. Right? Because from the current situation, they have returned to being at a disadvantage, because of the limitations on importing food due to America's blockade. >> It turns out that the professor sees that time is now on Trump's side. >> Correct. Therefore, it turns out that Iran is in a desperate situation. And if I were them, I would have to show my power by the 9th. And by showing power, it means fighting mainly over the Strait of Hormuz. Now, if you look at this map that I sent, figure 3, you will see this map is interesting. As I've told you before, the Strait of Hormuz, the part in the middle, between Iran above and Oman below, in the middle, which is the original channel, where they used to navigate before the war. Iran placed mines there. Therefore, when ships enter and exit, they have to deviate to the upper channel, which is the yellow zigzag line, or the lower channel, which is within the red oval shape. The upper channel is Iran's, the lower channel is Oman's. Now, America, in the past, coordinated with Oman and opened the lower channel. And Trump himself tried to communicate on social media, telling ships that they could pass through the lower channel, that it was safe, and that there were no mines. It turned out that ships passing through before did not pass because Iran was still attacking with drones. Later, after signing the MOU, America realized that if the MOU was signed, Iran would not attack them. So they organized ships in convoys, perhaps 4 ships at a time, sailing continuously. They would send aircraft, surveillance aircraft, fast aircraft, slow aircraft, to refuel and to escort these convoys of 3 or 4 ships, to pass through the Omani channel safely. It turned out that they have been able to do this as shown in the picture. In the latest, most ships that have passed have used the Iranian channel, which is the yellow line, which is said to be related to Iran, linked to Iran, linked to the UAE, linked to Singapore, all in the yellow channel. But there are some ships, if you observe, in the two oval shapes below, those are ships that America pressured to pass through the southern route. Now you can take this picture down. Now, if you look at it like this, what Iran would have to do to start, to create new pressure, would be to find a way to stop the ships passing through the Omani channel, to not pass. This is something we will have to see how they will do it. There are many ways. Sending drone attacks, like before. They might send drone attacks, or not. From what I've seen, there are ways to jam GPS, which causes problems. Or threats. Or another way, which might be more severe, is to declare a military exercise area and send drones to that location, to block the Omani channel from both sides. We will have to see next week if Iran starts to retaliate, how it will manifest. It will be in the form of closing the lower channel, and when the upper channel is opened, Iran will tell America, saying, "If by now, this 6 billion dollars that was said to come, has not yet come, then I will collect these fees, these fees for ships passing through." So, based on this, I think the risk of an escalation of tension next week is quite high. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to build a wider society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. 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