Transcription
To everyone. I hope you are doing well. We are back for the Monday, December 29th brief, it is 8:45 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the Wells are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, I hope you had a good holiday, that you enjoyed your family time because now we are going to print. The goal now is to start preparing for the year 2026. Clearly, not much will happen, I think, this week, but in any case, we will start preparing the setups because in my opinion, we risk having quite a few movements in the conclusion of this range. We already had a very small movement last night. Well, it's not necessarily what leads us to an upward trend, but we clearly see that we made a nice H4 candle, so that could be interesting. The first candle, the one at 9 PM, was rather enticing to open a long position, and clearly, well, it exploded afterwards. Personally, I was on the plane at that time, so I am currently back in Warsaw. That's why I can resume the videos. It's more practical for me, I have my setup. So, clearly, we will resume this, one video per day until the end of the year. So, clearly, it will be super interesting. In terms of economic news, this week, we won't have much. We still have New Year's this week. So it will be a holiday on Wednesday and Thursday. So, simply, the markets will be open on Wednesday, but closed on Thursday. We don't have much news apart from the Fed minutes at 8 PM on Tuesday, but it's not necessarily a very impactful news given that we are not talking about interest rates on this news. We have the weekly unemployment claims at 2:30 PM on Wednesday. So on Thursday, we will have nothing at all, and we will simply have the manufacturing PMI at 3:45 PM on Friday. So we are not looking at a very volatile week due to the news. We are also unlikely to have many movements from the news.
Regarding CryptoBobbles, what we see is green everywhere. This is normal, we had a pump on Bitcoin, so the Alts followed. We notably have Kight which gained 8%, CC which gained 11%, and then the Alts partially followed Bitcoin's movement. In terms of funding and open interest, we had a huge increase in open interest. We clearly see it right here, but it's rather mixed regarding what happened, given that we see an increase in open interest during most of the pump. Then, we have a decrease in open interest with a dump in funding. This means that here, it's mostly shorts that were opened. So right here. So we are still accumulating liquidity above. And then what we see is that we still have longs that were opened. So clearly, there's not much interesting to say about this. Apart from the fact that we accumulated liquidity throughout the rise, but we also accumulated liquidity just above. So it's possible to have one last pump. And on the other hand, if we do that, then clearly, in my opinion, the bearish movement will be violent. So be very careful about that. But in any case, if we dump and close quite a few longs, we can then come back to look for liquidity to the north, and that would be rather interesting.
Regarding liquidations, what we see is what I was telling you, we are looking at the last 24 hours, we have liquidity going up and down. So we have quite a few shorts that were opened, but we also have a lot of longs. So we have a liquidity cluster to be sought around $88,259. So we are not immune to going to get it. But clearly, the bulk of the work is still on the upside. If we look at the week, we have quite a lot of liquidity to grab up to $90,000. After that, we have a large cluster to grab at $86,000. So currently, we are still in this range. We are clearly stuck in a range in which we oscillate between $93,000 and $83,000. So we are not immune to going to reach $83,000 this week. It's not because we have a pump like this that everything is relaunched. Clearly, we can very well simply take the liquidity, come back to seek this FVG to then come back to seek the liquidity before having a conclusion to this movement. So clearly, for now, nothing interesting. In my opinion, we won't have major movements before at least 2026, so next week.
Regarding what the Wells are doing, the Wells sold this movement. So they sold the entire bearish movement, the entire range we had here, they sold it. So clearly, not much to say, but here they bought it back. So that's rather interesting. On the other hand, they just sold it again. The Micro Wells also bought this movement well, but they sold it again afterwards, whereas the retails bought this movement without necessarily selling it back. We see that there is not necessarily a divergence between what is happening with retails and the price. So clearly, we are really on a price that is manipulated by retails, well not manipulated, but triggered by retail purchases. And so that's not necessarily what we expect from the market logically. We prefer to trap retails to simply take liquidity and be able to make movements without too many people on board. And currently, we have a lot of longs on board. So clearly, that's not necessarily what we like. So we will have to see the reaction of the price when we are in this FVG that we have just above. It is probable that we will simply take the liquidity above, right here. But personally, I will not attempt it because, well, we have accumulated a lot above this zone. So clearly, we have this FVG right here, but in my opinion, we can go and get the FVG that goes up to $92,000. So it is very probable, in my opinion, that we will return to this FVG, close some longs, then come and seek this zone, and then we will see based on the data what can happen because either we have a lot of people going long because we have validated a trend change on daily, etc., and therefore many people open longs believing we will go much higher, and therefore we will seek liquidity at $83,000. Or many people go short, saying that we are in the OTE zone, we have the FVG, we have liquidated, etc., and therefore we can have a fake movement and then seek much higher to, well, end this range and then start accumulating around $98,000.
So, there will be two scenarios. The first scenario is to go and seek this FVG, so between $92,000 and $90,600. Logically, it's a certainty to go and get it. Of course, this is not investment advice, but logically, we could do something like that. And then, if we have a setup, for example, many longs opening and not necessarily spot buying, it means that we clearly see sales from the Wells, sales from retails, sales from micro Wells, etc., but the price continues to rise. Well, it will necessarily be derivative contracts pushing this price, and therefore the dump will be inevitable if we see that. On the other hand, if we continue to see shorts opening and we continue to have purchases, etc., but the price is slowly maintained, clearly that would mean we can go much higher, and then we will have longs to open potentially on this retest. Then, if we go and get that and we clearly see that we have a low time frame setup and that many people have shorted these levels, then it will be super interesting to open longs with a stop just below to then target $98,000. But for now, well, there is not much to do, the movement started without us. So, it's better to be patient and wait to see what happens. In any case, we have a large cluster to grab in this zone and a very large cluster to grab around $91,000-$92,000 and also around $98,000. So be very careful, we can very well be stuck in this zone in which we could even reach $98,000 and then go much lower. On the other hand, I'm warning you, this is bad if we do this kind of movement because we will have taken all the liquidity and therefore we can simply come back to seek much lower. Why not hit $70,000 if we see something like that. So, currently, the first scenario remains the same. We go and get at least $90,600 to reach a maximum of $92,000. Then, we will see what happens based on the data.
I hope this video was enjoyable. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment on your thoughts. I hope you had a good holiday and that you are ready for the return. In any case, I am. I wish you a good day. See you tomorrow, same time. Take care of yourselves. M.