Transcription
I think we're absolutely in a bare market. If you look at this, every prior low for Bitcoin occurred after these two metrics crossed each other, and they haven't crossed each other yet. So once they do cross, it corresponds somewhere in like 50k. There are scenarios where the market could bottom out a lot earlier if the capitulations start to get really bad and there's not a major counter trend rally. And I think it makes sense to expect a macro low.
This market analysis is one of the most direct and unfiltered updates Benjamin Cowan has shared this week, as he breaks down what the current data is signaling and why another potential draw down toward the $50,000 range or even lower can't be ruled out yet. He walks through key charts, macro indicators, and historical market cycles to support his case and explain why the market may still need more time to reset. It won't be easy to hear, but he's laying out his honest perspective, focusing on probabilities rather than hype, and reminding investors to stay realistic, patient, and prepared for continued volatility.
You know what's crazy is Bitcoin tops when it always does. If you look at the ROI from the low for Bitcoin, and you just kind of compare the last three cycles, the purple line, this is the current cycle right here. Literally, we topped on day 1,062, and the cycle before that was 1,059. In the cycle before that was 1,068. So the four-year cycle continues to rule out everything else, right? Like it beats all the indicators. Just, I mean, it's just time. The cyclical component of Bitcoin just continues to strike again. So the first thing I do is say, all right, well, if the peak is when the peak has always been, maybe the low will be when the low has always been. And that's kind of the base case for me. If you extend this out to the next low, it would look like the low would be on day 1,424, 1,432. So if you, if you actually put that in, it corresponds to the first half of October. If you just simply look at the last two cycles, you know, last cycle was November to November. The cycle before that was December to December. And so it's relevant to consider, hey, if the top is when the top always is, maybe the bottom will also be when the bottom usually is.
If you look at MicroStrategy, one of the interesting things is that last cycle, MicroStrategy did the same thing as doing this cycle. It topped out a lot earlier in the cycle. It topped in February of 2021. Bitcoin topped in November. Now, last cycle, it took MicroStrategy 98 weeks to bottom. And 98 weeks for MicroStrategy's top puts us in exactly October, the first half of October of 2026. So my guess is that the low will be in October. I think there's going to be a big counter trend rally before then. Maybe, maybe this summer would be when we get some type of larger counter trend rally.
There is a chance that it could come sooner, right? We already hit the 200-day moving average. Like, we've already hit it. And last cycle, we didn't hit it until June. The cycle before that, we didn't hit it until December. It's only February. I mean, it feels like the bare market's been going on for two years at this point, but it's only February and we're already at the 200-day moving average. So, is there a chance that because we topped on apathy, we'll bottom at a different time?
If you look at social interest in crypto, this orange line, retail interest has been leaving crypto for the last five or six years. So, I feel like we're in this post-non-euphoric top, and you're just kind of watching Bitcoin go down. But it is not dropping as quickly as it has in prior cycles. And that's the crazy thing. It feels like it is, right? Like, it feels like it's dropping quicker. It got to the 200-day moving average quicker, but the reason why it got to the 200-day moving average quicker was because it didn't extend as far beyond the 200-day moving average in the bull market. Now, let me give you an example. In 2018, when Bitcoin topped in 2017, it took about 8 weeks for Bitcoin to drop 70%. This time, it took about 16 weeks for Bitcoin to drop 50%. So we're not dropping nearly as quickly as we normally do in under euphoric tops. But the reason why it feels so bad is because we didn't get the euphoric top, right? Didn't get the mania phase, and therefore a lot of people have a harder time, you know, sort of accepting the drawdown after the after the non-euphoric top. But I do think that October is the most likely time period. The second most likely is May. And the reason I say that is because sometimes when you get these drops and people just give up quicker, and if everyone's like looking at the four-year cycle and thinking like, well, okay, we have until October.
There are scenarios where the market could bottom out a lot earlier if the capitulations start to get really bad and there's not a major counter trend rally. What I would say is this rant, there's a few indicators we can look at. The first one is just simply, if it's not broke, don't fix it. And one of the things we know is that Bitcoin's bare markets have gotten a little bit more bearable, if you want to call it that. The first bare market was a 94% drop. The second bare market was an 87% drop. The third one was 84. The fourth one was 77. So what we notice is that every cycle, the drops are getting less dramatic.
Yes. If you look at this, every prior low for Bitcoin occurred after these two metrics crossed each other, and they haven't crossed each other yet. So once they do cross, I think right now it corresponds somewhere in the 50k, 40-50k.
It's 45 to it's 45 to 50. It certainly seems like we will likely have another leg down at some point. Usually, that next period of weakness occurs going into April and May. And if you look at Bitcoin, you'll find a lot of major lows in bare market years in February. So this is February 2018, February 2022. This is February 2026. And you also have over here, you have February of 2014. But then every single low that was formed in February was met by a lower high in early March. So you have lows in February, lower highs in early to late March, and then that led into the major drop that we would get into April and May. So I think that is the most likely outcome here.
Now, there's one other thing I want to show you guys. This is not a, it's not as common of a chart to talk about, but if you look at the balance price, right? So if you look at Bitcoin's price history, you can see that it always peaks out when it hits the terminal price. The only two times in history where it topped before hitting the terminal price were this cycle and the 2019 cycle, right? Very similar macro conditions. But in every case, even after the 2019 top, because of the pandemic, but in every midterm year, every single case in history, Bitcoin has always gone down. First, it goes below the realized price, and then it goes below the balance price. Today, the realized price is 55K. The balance price is 40K. So if you see Bitcoin below those levels later this year, I think that would offer a pretty good opportunity. And then the other thing you can look at, you can look at things like the MVRV Z-score and see that it usually bottoms when it goes below zero, and we're not below zero yet. So I think a lot of these indicators are just going to play out like they always do. We'll see them reset, and then I think by the end of this year, a lot of the frothier excess stuff will be gone, and it'll allow people to focus more on what matters in the next cycle.
Benjamin Cowan continues to remind viewers that while he hasn't always been right, his track record of analyzing past cycles, current market data, and broader trends has proven reliable more often than not. Because of that, he's urging investors to stay prepared for the possibility of another drawdown and a stretch of heavy volatility in the months ahead. It may not be easy to sit through, but he believes the investors who endure this phase will be the true long-term holders. Those who don't panic sell when fear rises. Instead of reacting emotionally, they stay in the market, remain patient, and use weakness as an opportunity to accumulate and strengthen their Bitcoin exposure. That's how disciplined investors respond to tough conditions. They treat volatility as part of the process, not a failure of the asset. Stay realistic, manage risk, keep perspective, and remember that conviction is built during uncomfortable phases like this. Wish someone taught you Bitcoin earlier? Now's your chance to do better for your kids or young family. This teen ebook is perfect. Link in the description.