Transcription
Good morning everybody. One second. We'll get to it here. Fancy opening right there. Heat. Heat. Here we go. About that. Stop this. See if we can bond. Rebonding. Yay. Bonding. Yay. And go to that. All right, let's get to it. Time to make the donuts.
All right, so let's start with the basics. Um, I'm just going to start here because I think it's super important for people to get the concept. I I think people need to stop predicting the the end of the world um and trade just trade what's happening and I think you'd be much happier and I think you'd be way more successful. I I see it a lot even in the community where we're we're trying to predict when this is going to happen and when we're going to test this and it's out there. It's possible, but what are you really what are you predicting? What are you predicting? Like you're predicting 4% that you're going to fall off, right? Okay.
You have a a base just so we're clear on this going from October over. So if we take a look at that base and we mark that off, that's your first fib level on that whole move. And that's from the base, right? And that's not so this idea of overbought and we have to pull back. You're seeing signs of it. I mean, you're seeing signs that are a concern for sure, but I'd be super careful going with that kind of thematic we have to pull back kind of thing. Um, I think it's out there. I think it's definitely a possibility. I cover it extensively last night in last night's video, like what I would look for and what the issues are, but I'd be super careful about convincing myself um that I need to, you know, get out of the way here and I'd be really careful of that.
So, let's get to a couple things here. That's not what I want. It's like sometimes it just wants to fight me. And right here, so if you if you really look at how this has been playing out, you've just been dipping and then you've been rallying and then the dipping and then you've been rallying. Um I I really don't see much more, you know, behind it. And let me just lift this up here. So, I I don't really see much more behind it. I mean, as much as I keep waiting for, you know, this big pullback because I do think it's out there. I mean, this is really what you're doing. There's stairstepping you up and we're waiting for a crack. Now, I'm I'm not saying that it can't happen. It can. Anything can happen. I just don't know that it's going to. And so I I really think that when you look at something like this, um, for me, we just really want to be cognizant of that. I I just don't know that we want to sit around and wait for it. So, you know, that's kind of where my head is.
If I if I'm to look at this, we're just really looking at this in May and going May was when they were going to sell, everybody thought, right? May was when they were going to get out. It's so crooked. Look at this thing. Crooked. All right. So, May's when they were going to get out and if we take a look at how, you know, how May's going for us, it's really simple, right? And we take a look at this. All they did was buy. So, I'm going to just mark them off. But, you know, let's do it this way because I think this really hammers it home. And and again, it's not like it's not like there's not stuff to concern yourself with. There is. And I'm going to cover a little bit of it today. But you go here and look at the fib levels and the fib levels are just telling you what you could get naturally. Like that's like just naturally what the move would be, right? And then when you get up to here, you kind of get in thin air. So maybe, you know, it makes you more exposed to a pullback, but you're not even there yet. And you know, everyone needs to kind of calm down. Is it is it possible we pull back? Yeah. You know, you saw some cracks last night for sure. um you saw people not buy into the Kool-Aid of bad earnings or mediocre earnings and that's the first time that we've seen that. Now whether that lasts or whether they just jump back in, you know, remains to be seen, but I don't really see the the reason why I'm going to, you know, change a lot of where my thesis is this morning on some stuff. So, I think that's super um I think that's super important to get.
So, what we would do here is look at this and say, "All right, self, if we look at those levels, that's pretty clean, isn't it?" And if you were to try to figure out like just even off of that move, like where does the fib retracement or extension take you just off of that, you're going to get a level up here, just off of that move. So, you you have some movement here that can still happen. But, do I see some things that are out there? Yeah, I think options are getting way more expensive as people start buying the um they start buying some stuff here that's super interesting to me. But hold on, let me just drop this in. So, they're starting to buy the VIX and that was yesterday. And when the VIX is up and moving up, even though it's slight, you always want to pay attention to that. Like, you don't want to pretend that it's not happening, right? So, I do think that there's something to that.
If we go and take a look at the cues and I'm just trying to pack it in, guys, not bore you. Just trying to get you ready for the day. You know, you have your call walls up there. So, it's that's telling you like they think you're going higher and they think you're going higher by Friday and today's Thursday. So, they keep moving it on the week. They're not. Eventually, they'll be wrong, but so far they haven't been. the SPY, they moved it to 740 and they're moving it weekly. So, it's not like they're, you know, eventually again they're going to be wrong, but every day it's like this thing's up 50 basis points. They keep moving it up over and over again. That's where you're at. So, keep that in mind.
Um, what do I think is most interesting? I think most interesting is that's not being talked about is this. I think the Oracle, I own Oracle and I've owned it for a very long time and I continue to buy it, but I haven't bought any since it did this. It broke out here and then I just stayed with it. Uh, and I haven't done anything with it and I've just been holding on to it and I don't plan on doing anything with it. Um, and it's done exceptionally, you know, exceptionally well from here. I think I'm up on that position like 10% or something. I don't know what is it 20 20%. That's not right. Can't be that much, is it? Did I make that much? Okay. Um I guess it is 30 points. So but I think that you can get up to this 208 pretty quickly and then I think there's a gap here you're going to get to. Um this idea that Oracle is somehow not going to be able to rent out the space that they were giving to Open AI. Uh, it's just kind of delusional and um, you know, whatever but it's it's pretty delusional. So, if I had to tell you like what name makes sense to me, that does.
DD dog, you guys are going to go crazy for this one. You guys are gonna be all over it. Yay, DD dog. Um, you know, candidly, I wish I played that one to the FSLY last night, but um, someone said they missed on some security level, but it is what it is. IQ, you guys are probably ask about, too. I thought it was a good report. I I wouldn't be surprised to see this change its tune. Um, ARM I thought was okay. I don't think it was great. I think everyone was expecting the next AMD. Uh, and that's not really what you're, you know, what you're going to get there. So, you know, I think that to me, you just want to make sure that you, you know, you hold your key levels here. Um, and you did pretty well. So, you know, we'll see how that goes. Uh, I'm going to take questions for our time. Oh, hold on. Let's get a fancy little banner. Um, earnings. HWM. Uh, DD Dog. What else came out? Oh, HIMX came out. You crazy kids are going to want to watch that one. What else came out that was super interesting? Arm earrings. I'll leave it here. And then we'll go and we'll click save. I'll just put that little banner up and let's get to it.
Yeah, I think the spy looks good. I I I don't touch SMCI. I get why people trade it. Um, you know, huge short positions and that's why they're trading it. I wish him the best. Uh, that's not really for me. Um, you know, the FTNT, some of these names, yeah, they look like they're just going to rip right on earnings. So, I think earnings on some of these names are so much better than people think they were. Um, I I didn't read this one. I don't know anything about it, but it's very clear that they're very interested in it. I I do become concerned about these kinds of bars and so I'd watch that very carefully and watch how that plays out. Um I don't know that I'd go crazy there, dude. Like I I'd want to watch that five minute flip.
The Ruku was a super interesting chart. Like really fascinating what it did on earnings. And I when you start to see this kind of stuff, you really want to pay attention to it. Like can't get over, pulls back earnings. Can't get over pulls back earnings. Earnings gets it through. And now you're flagging. Like that's pretty textbook stuff, right? And so then you just you're really looking at that right there. I mean, that's your whole trade. It's like five points. It either works or it doesn't. That that's it. That was easy. But out of all of them, that makes the most sense. Is that Jess? I don't really care about the peace. What I care about is the rotation. Um, do I think there's going to be peace? No. I think you're going to Earnings are good. Earnings are bad. Earnings are good. Earnings are bad. I think we're going to earnings. Earnings are good. Earnings are bad. Our self all over. Right. Um, I think Iran's going to open, Iran's going to close. Iran's going to open. Iran, like we're gonna, it's it's the same soup just reheated with more seasoning.
So, like, so, so the question becomes you had this hedge on, right? I'll explain this way. This is easier to explain it. You had this hedge on and the hedge was energy. So, like I'm hedging with the VIX and that didn't work. That was a suck salad, right? So, I start hedging with the VIX and that's not working. So, I started hedging with energy names and I started really hedging with crude oil and that worked really well. Like really well. And you can see like your range in here right now. I don't think that's your hedge anymore. I think that if you look at the damage that's been done by crude being here, the hedge now becomes gold. The hedge now becomes silver. Do I think copper is the hedge? Copper concerns me because of how fast Trump can just come out and do something and he's already done it. He already did it once here and copper got smoked. So I mean smoked. So I think looking at copper and trying to understand that Yeah. I don't know that I I don't know that I want to um I don't know that I want to play that game. He can't really do something to gold that I think not the same way. This is going to go back to the gold standard but gold silver they make sense to me. Like that makes sense to me to go and take a look at gold, to go take a look at silver. Uh, you know, this is a big day for silver. And um, is it ARQ? Isn't it something like that? Or a man, I made a fortune with the damn thing. You think I'd remember what the symbol was? Silver. Uh, what is it? Silver ATF. What was it? Larry, I am in no mood. Larry is a pigeon, by the way. We saw him yesterday. I have to find it. I forget what it is. It's like a AKQ or something. I don't know. ARQ. I don't know. Someone will put it in the room and you think I'd remember it. Um, but this kind of thing. Yeah, I definitely want to pay attention to that. I definitely want to start looking at that. That is definitely of interest to me. And uh let's go there. see something here. So, yeah, not surprised once they saw all the earnings, but got stopped out of it. That's what happens. That's the game. Only the game can teach you about the game. What else we got here? Uh, that's where my head is with it, Jess. So, I think silver makes sense. Uh, I think gold makes sense. AGQ. There it is. AGQ. I know somebody start throwing it at me. That's it. Um, yeah. I think it starts making sense to look at this again. Maybe. Uh, I think they're going to start going that way with it again. I do. Um, I think it's coming. They're going to want to hedge it again. Silver makes sense to me. There's gold cat Google.
Um I I think the one thing that really got to me and I feel you know I get I was telling the guys today and girls in the room like I get super myopic with stuff. These are not blue these are just blue light by the way. They're not uh they're not even like readers or anything. Um, I like these way more than the yellow ones that were um they they worked, but these are crystal clear. Uh, Felix Gray, somebody recommended them. They're like way easier to wear all the time when looking at uh charts all day and screens all day. Way easier. And my eyes don't get anywhere near as tired. I'm looking at screens all day long. Um, John, the one thing that like I just I I feel like I missed in looking at some of this stuff was um the way that these names are are moving and the way that some of these like the caterpillars are moving and the way that this stuff's all going. I I almost feel like dumb not truly grasping where this stuff was going to go. And I, you know, I almost feel stupid with it. like really looking at it and saying I knew that the data center buildout was huge, but I had no idea the speed in which this stuff was going to start coming. Like how fast it was going to hit their earnings. I thought it was spread out over a longer period of time and it's just it's simply not. It's like, oh, it's no, no, we're going to dump it all right now and spend right now. Um, so when I see things like CAT, it's just like what's going to stop it? you know, they're they're set they're supplying the data center infrastructure theme. So, like when you really think about what they're doing, it's just literally a no-brainer. Like, and you go back and you look at the earnings on it and it just starts making so much sense. It's like, why would you even do anything with it? Like, there's literally, you know, it just literally a no-brainer.
All right, did we hit 50,000? Yay. Uh, good morning from North Carolina. Good morning from Miami. uh NBIS N. So I traded this yesterday. I did well with it. I had calls. We bought calls here, was it? Or here that day. We bought calls and then we literally doubled them in a day. Um we rolled them out and we doubled those yesterday and I closed it and I'm just sitting on the sidelines with it. It's a freaking huge move in a very short period of time off that like rejection right here. You know, you held that 22, but it was also tied to this and there was a 4 hour. But if I come off that rip, I'm like I'm up 40% in four days. So, do I think it's going to keep going? I I think some of the air will come out of the ones that people are buying ahead of earnings after ARM. That's what I think. Um, but you know, you should do what you're comfortable with. And I think that this kind of stuff, you know, that might make more sense. But are they going to have good earnings? I would think they're going to kill it. When I look at the price point on what it's costing to rent an H100, because I do look at that stuff, it's freaking staggering right now what it's costing for that kind of stuff. So, and uh let's see there when we'll get there, but I same thing. Um I expect this to actually move the same way. You're coming out with earnings first, right? So, you're tonight. Yeah. I mean, last was a dumpster fire. They missed. Everything was bad and and maybe people are expecting it to do better this time. I I don't know what you're going to get. I think people have a lot of expectations on this name and um I don't know that they're justified. So, you'll find out. I mean, maybe it'll be great and it'll go, maybe it won't, but you know, you're gambling.
If you had to look at this, like you always go back two quarters, right? And just get a sense of what happened. You don't have to go back four because if you think they're scaling and if you get a change and you get a change, but you go back and go, "Well, here's earnings. Okay, well that was a dumpster fire and that marked the top. Okay, here's earnings. That was a dumpster fire and that marked the top for three months. But everybody thinks that it's going to be different this time. Maybe it is. You know, did you do channel checks? I mean, what makes you think it's going to be different? The guy, you know, some guy on Twitter told you it's going to be different. Like, why is it going to be different? I'm not saying it's not going to be different, but I'm I'm just asking. It seems to me that people are just trying to get in this stuff ahead of earnings because they're watching some of these companies beat earnings and it's insane. And there's nothing wrong with that, but I don't know. Or maybe they looked at CIFR, right? And then they extrapolated out CIFR's move based upon that, right? Like maybe that's what they're doing, you know? I I don't know. Um or they're looking at something like Wolf and going, "Oh man, Wolf's really breaking out and it's going to do this and that and is it?" Because it really hasn't done that yet, right? So, I mean, here's where their revenues missed by four, you know, four million or 25%. Here's where they missed revenues by 25%. Okay, this is where they got into the business. I mean, that makes sense, right? But I don't know that they that they have it together. You know, that's a big if. Um, you know, NBIS has a, you know, a very deep pocket client and that one makes sense to me. Like I can argue why this one makes more sense than all of them. Whether it does or not, you know, we'll find out. Uh, but some of these earnings are just absolutely insane.
No, I don't I I didn't see the the Baronss. Um, I'm sure it's good. I mean, I actually can't believe that this name's given you gave us this opportunity. I just had so much other crap to do and look at. Um, this makes a lot of sense to me. Like a lot. And if you listen to the earnings call, they took their growth rate up to double from last quarter. So, I don't know why anybody's like super surprised by this. Uh, I just think you have to pick your battles like on which names you want to be in, which names you don't want to be in, that kind of thing. But, you know, all right, I'm going to have to wrap it up here. Yeah, I you know, they're just they they don't seem to they don't seem to love it for whatever reason. Maybe they're predicting they're getting ahead of it in front of the quarter. Um I don't know. I you know, we'll see. Uh they seem to be all over the other names. But yeah, Larry is a pigeon.
The HIMX I I think that this is going to get a lot of attention today, like a lot. And uh you know, you're seeing a huge movement here and and it must be in the guidance. I haven't had time to go through the whole thing yet. Um, but there's definitely something to it for sure. I mean, there's definitely something to it. I mean, this it's just keeps ripping. So, you know, we just have to watch it. But I I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit in it. What's up, Jacob? You know, I think that there is stuff like this that you need to pay attention to. Um, you know, one thing that I like to do a lot of and I have the guys, you know, do it in the room is you take a look at the 40 sectors. Like I have 40 40ome sectors, right? and I'll go through it and I'll do this and I do it every night and I think it's super helpful. Um, hold on. Okay. Can you not change the name of them? That's not what I want to do. Sweet Jesus questions. It's going to get harder today, buddy. Get out of it. Here we go. So, like I'll do stuff like this and I think it's super helpful where I'll just look at the change from yesterday and go, "Okay, well, what the heck's this?" And I don't know why that's in there. Shouldn't be. Oh, that was the all birds. I went to watch that. Uh, but you start looking at them and like okay well what was the biggest up yesterday? gold uh EUAD semis right crypto space and then the miners ch China right you just start going through them ITA defense spending steals breaking out right so things that people aren't even watching so I take like 40 sectors and they're there um do I think that this makes sense yeah I mean I do I do think that this makes sense that's probably why Cleveland moved yesterday the way that it did, but it's kind of boring really. But it does make sense. Um I I think there's something to it. I don't know. It's just that every time these companies come out with earnings, they suck. So, it's just kind of frustrating. First shoulder is the one that makes the most sense. But, you know, after earnings, do I really want to play that? I I don't know. I don't know how I feel about it. ENTP is always a dumpster fire. So, what what am I really buying? You know, where's the edge in that kind of stuff? I don't know. I don't think I have it.
Yeah, I think Oracle's super interesting. The A is really interesting, dude. Like I I listened to that call last night. Um I was flipping on through calls and I was on the ARM call and I'm like, "Oh, this is a dumpster fire. He just keeps saying AI over and over and over again. Like this is not going to go well." Um, and eventually people were like, "Yeah, that's a that's great that you can say the words AI." And then they started asking questions and then oh boy, questions. Um, I listen to A and they know their business cold. Uh, I actually traded this like super quick on a move and then I started looking at the the option market. You have a real problem here right here. um like a real issue here in the option market and I don't know that you're going to get through it this week and I would just watch that because you can actually see like there's a lot here and uh it's you're fighting a huge option like the market makers here so just watch that but you can see it in here like even pre-market where it starts try to get in there and they're like not today Satan so they're gonna fight you tooth and nail here's what I would say if you flip and it's a big level but if you flip that level. It's going to be the cat's pajamas. But that's a big big if.
I thought it was very good. I don't really like any of those names. I tried the OQ man. I thought the I I actually thought that uh I thought that they might start talking about their merger and you know, hey, by the way, we we're going to own the largest um you know, US-based foundry. Like I mean, that seems like a good talk to have, doesn't it? Doesn't that seem like something great, you know? And instead of that, they're not doing that. So, it's like, okay. So, we'll see. Yep. Madna. McDonald's. I'm loving it. Huh. Who's funny? Got two thumbs. This guy. Um, I don't really touch that name. I I just don't do well with it. I find it very very boring. Like, I don't know. I just love myself too much to to play with that. So, what else we got? I don't know, John. I'm not feeling those.
We can look at the CRML. This is one I guess it's the underwater mining name that they think is going to go. That's This seems to be the one the kids are playing with now. Um, when I ran through that, Larry, I am in no mood. Once I found out he was a pigeon, I feel like he was lied to. thought he was this majestic bird. Came all the way to Miami to live with a pigeon. Um, this is the one the kids were playing with yesterday and they're killing it on. And this actually makes sense. Like if you look here and uh hold on one second and we go here. Um, see all that volume. Like it was insane yesterday. like they're playing that aim and they started back here but they're playing that aim like big time. Um that's the one on the critical mineral side and they're buying the critical minerals again. So this one makes sense to me. I could see why someone would play that when the CRML us I I don't know. I don't know enough about them. I I really don't. And if I had to tell you technically I mean you really want to buy that? You sure about that? You sure about that? You know, I just got to get through that, bro. Okay. Lol is always the spec play. Um, like, okay, like here's the thing. You don't have I saw this and you don't have enough power. Like you need more power, right? Like just like Scotty said, but these things are going to be all over the place. If you really look at like LEU, oh Christ, I gotta go. Um, like these names make a lot more sense to me. Like here's earnings. We had good earnings. Like let's go. BWXT. Oh, you make money. You have contracts. Like oh, okay. Like let's go. They make the most sense to me. People want to play the spec names. Um, but yeah, I haven't really dug dug into that yet. The HIMX, but clearly the kids love it.
So, uh, GWW, is it a monster? Yeah, Granger. I mean, all this stuff when you start really looking at it, it's like, what the hell am I doing? Like, look at this. like TT like all this stuff's just they're absolute monster charts when I started going through it and it's not going to stop. Um, as you actually had buyers in the other day. I mean, you may hold here. It is possible. I saw this the other day uh yesterday. I started looking at it because a couple guys reached out to me that trade it. You know what you don't want to do is break that bar which ties into right where the peak like it's it's literally Hold on. Hold on. It's literally that peak right there. So like, you know, they undercut that peak, which is really where this guy, whoever he is, wanted to buy it. So they undercut that and then he just buys everything he can all the way up. Um, so as long as you're not closing below there, you're probably okay. I don't really see the need that I have to be in these names. Uh, this be Sky, which is one I traded in the past. Uh, you know, is this it? You came out with earnings to Was that it? Where is it? Is that it? It's not this, is it? Come on, Boomer. I'll find it. Where the heck was it? Oh, I think it's this. I think it's B KSY. Isn't that what they do? Yep. Black sky. So, this is in that space. And um, you know, not a good day. So, I don't know. I don't know how that's going to play out. And everyone will tell me that one's different, but yeah, I like the GLW, like this kind of stuff, like they got good news. They just wanted to sell it. It is what it is, man. Um, STM, all that stuff's fine. I I don't I don't know anything about Robin Hood. I don't know why I would bother, honestly. STM looks like a beast, dude. There's there's nothing to do there. RXT, you guys seem to want to talk about I I don't know anything about it. Like I think it's great that it's up and you guys are killing it. I mean, maybe they were awesome earnings and they raised guidance, but I I have no idea. So, I gotta jump, guys. Trade to win. Make good choices.