Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Sunday, November 16th brief, it is 9:30 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, I would like to talk to you about a fractal that clearly resembles what we have already experienced and, therefore, what we have already experienced in the past during the last cycle. And I find that this fractal looks perfect. So ideally, I will put up two charts so you can completely see what, uh, what happened exactly. I will put up two charts and, uh, we will be able to compare a little. Uh, so the goal is to show you that, uh, there are times when movements happen in exactly the same way. And this is really the case. We see that on Bitcoin, well, currently. So I will leave what is happening now on the left, and I will go to the right to the past, so in 2021. So it was, uh, so I'm staying on H4, of course, but I'm staying on, uh, this zone here, and the goal is really to show you the comparisons of things that happened in 2021 so that you can imagine what comes next. So currently, what we see on, on Bitcoin is, so currently, I'm on the current chart of today. I see that, well, here we had a liquidity grab. Just here above the ATH, then a second liquidity grab. In case there were still longs in play, we did a second liquidity grab. Last time, we had a liquidity grab above the ATH, so it was, uh, October 20th, 2021. Uh, so just here, hop, liquidity grab above the ATH. In case there are still people shorting, uh, well, quite simply, we take them out a second time, as we did here. Then, what we see is that, well, the cycles were a bit longer before, so there was less volume and so on. But what we see is that we made a big liquidity wick just here, going from $57,000 to $41,000. We made our big liquidity wick, going from $121,000 to $100,000. So it's not exactly the same move in terms of capitalization and so on, but you see that, well, it's still similar. We make our liquidity wick. Then, what we do is, well, quite simply, we range. Okay, so here we range. Tac tac tac tac tac. What do we do next? We come and take the liquidity just above, and then we move on. What do we do here? We come and take the liquidity just above. I will even remove my indicators so you can clearly see the liquidity grabs. So here, we come and take the liquidity just above, and we move on. We make a new low below the wick. We make a new low below the wick. Perfectly. You see it clearly just here and just here. Same thing. So we make a low, we make a low. We come and liquidate just above this small accumulation here. We come and liquidate just above this small liquidation here. So just by making this wick here. Okay. Then, we make a low. Then, we make a low here as well. And so, we would be around this zone here, just here, if we look. And so clearly, logically, if we refer to what happened before, logically, well, we should be near a bottom, given that what follows is this. What follows, hop, I will remove this. What follows is this. So that means that logically, we should be able to come and liquidate above, so, this zone here. Tac. Which logically brings us, uh, it would be, uh, it would be to come and seek this zone. Uh, it's this zone here. Yes. So it would be this zone. So rather interesting since logically, well, we just come above this to, to simply liquidate. So now, in the first instance, I think it will be this zone here. And if this zone here holds very, very well, we can push a little higher. But there, I think that around $108,000, it could be really interesting. So if we look at $108,000 now, so the goal is to come and seek this zone to then logically, the movement we should make, it would be this one, in which we make a new low during the night, we go back above. So here, we exit all the longs of the weekend, all the people who looked to long and so on. We exit them by making a low. Then, we have a very rapid trend change on which no one has time to enter. We quickly go to $108,000. Everyone says, "Okay, it's a trend change, we can really go much higher." We trap everyone. Then, we have an accumulation. Okay? Everyone says, "We're going to short," and so on. We make a new high again, as we did here, in which we liquidate, which would not necessarily be, which would be clean, clearly, in which we liquidate, for example, $111,000, and then we make a real low because then everyone says, "Okay, it's a boss, we had our trend change, our break of structure, when it comes back to the long zone, and finally, we go much lower." And so this is a scenario that is largely possible. We still have a nice fractal of the beginning of a bearish cycle on Bitcoin. So it's a theory to keep in mind. You just have to keep it in mind, not necessarily to follow it 100%, but there, I found that there were quite a few resemblances that we could discuss and simply exchange on. So don't hesitate to put your opinion in the comments, what you think of this fractal. But I find it to be very clean. So if we now look at the data and so on, so I will switch back to my normal chart. We will look at the data, see if this plan is simply possible, but for me, it is very, very probable. So it would be rather interesting to even make this kind of move. So it can be really nice. In terms of economic news, next week, be careful, we have Nvidia results on Wednesday after the close. In terms of the economic calendar, we will also be served next week. So this week, we will have, uh, the Fed minutes at 8 PM on Wednesday. We will also have the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 2:30 PM on Thursday, as well as existing home sales. We will especially have the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI at 3:45 PM on Friday. So we risk having quite a few movements next week related to the news, and we will also have economic news that has not been released related to the shutdown we had in the United States, which will be released gradually, and we don't really have a clear view on the dates they will be released, so it will be a bit of a surprise, and it risks moving the markets quite a bit, so be careful about that. In terms of crypto, what we see is that we have green everywhere, which is normal. We have a Bitcoin dominance that is currently falling. So the Alts are taking advantage, notably STRK, TEL, DASH, ASTRO, DCR, and SUN is down 23%. In terms of funding and open interest, what we see is that we currently have a majority of longs being opened. So if we look and zoom in a bit, we clearly see that here, these are longs that have been opened. We see a rise in open interest with a rise in funding. Which means that these are longs being opened. If we look here, these are shorts being closed, as we see a closing of positions, so open interest is falling with a rise in open interest. And then, what we see is that these are shorts that are starting to be opened. Here, we cannot really say exactly what happened in this zone, but logically, it is longs that have been opened. We see a very small rise in open interest and funding on a large rise in open interest. So logically, here, it would be longs that would have been opened. So maybe an insider, to be seen. But in any case, there is not necessarily any element currently to say that we will be, we will be completely bullish. It is rather, in my opinion, a correction to come, given that a lot of longs are being opened. When we look just here, same thing, we had a rise in open interest with a rise in funding. Here, we had just a rise in open interest with a fall in funding. Which means that here, logically, we already got them out by making this move. If we come here, logically, we will get them out at 97350. But if we look, we really have a majority of longs on the market. We see a rise in open interest, a rise in funding here as well. So that means that here it was, uh, essentially longs that were opened. So we have more liquidations on the downside currently since November 14th than liquidations on the upside, logically, even if we accumulate a lot on the upside currently for 3 or 4 days. So in my opinion, the bullish move could be very aggressive, and we would not necessarily have time to position ourselves. So that's why it can be interesting to have this move tonight on Bitcoin. If we look at 3 days, we have a lot of liquidations to seek, uh, around $98,347. It could be really interesting to seek this zone. And now, if I look at, for example, 2 weeks, well, we clearly see that most liquidations are on the upside. Uh, hop, so they are on the upside just here, for example, up to $98,000. And we still have nice liquidity clusters just above. But there, if we look at 24 hours, be careful, we still have quite a few liquidations to take below, notably down to $9457. It could be interesting to seek this zone. And on 48 hours, I will look because I think we still have a nice cluster to take just here at 94,000, at $93,422. So that would be interesting. Just be careful if we first take the liquidations above around $98,000. That could be a bit of a bearish element if behind we dump, because then we will have validated, potentially, we will have started to validate a trend change on H4 if we go there, and then if the candle is swallowed to go seek the liquidations below, it would mean that potentially, well, we are not at a bottom, and we are perhaps far from the bottom, given that we have already taken the liquidations that were to be taken above. So be careful about that. In terms of what the whales are doing, the whales accumulated this move. They just bought, uh, for, uh, $30 million just here. So is this an insider? I don't think so. Given that $30 million is still a small amount for an insider. Logically, insiders are more into these kinds of moves, even if this one wasn't one. So, so there, currently not much to say in terms of whales, micro-whales, and retail. Whales and retail are not necessarily accumulating. They are in total indecision, whales as well. It's rare to see movements like this. So pretty much all portfolio classes are lost. So this is rather interesting data. We will then look at what can happen historically when portfolios are lost. We will see what happens afterwards. So technically, what I think is that we have, uh, a chance of a dump tonight to make a last low. What would be really interesting is not to take the liquidations that are just above at all, because by making this bearish move, well, logically, we attract much more liquidity, and then we could make a really aggressive bullish move tomorrow, logically, given that the fractal was also a Saturday, Saturday, Sunday, we dumped on Sunday night to Monday on the Ane. The dump stopped at 9 AM, and then we started again at 9 AM. So really very strongly. So it would be really interesting to see this kind of movement materialize. Personally, I think that if I see tonight that we make a bearish move in which we are on this, and it is automatically swallowed, but it is just a wick, I think I will position myself with a stop loss a little below the wick, or even below the liquidations. And I think it can be really interesting to target $108,000 because the RR would be really, really very good. So, clearly, it can be a good, a good idea to play. Now, there, it's not guaranteed, it's a fractal. So we will see if it works out. But for now, the data is consistent with this plan, so it can be really interesting. There, tell me what you think in the comments, I'm interested. Also, don't hesitate to subscribe if you haven't already. Too many people watch the videos who are not subscribed. So if you want to do it, it's with great pleasure. It boosts the channel a bit. Also, don't hesitate to like, it boosts the video. I thank you for that, and in any case, I wish you a good Sunday. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.