Transcription
Hey everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name is Andy. My channel's finding value.
Today we're going to do our daily technical analysis, updated commodities, work our way through the dollar, yields, precious metals, and commodities ETFs that I follow. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together.
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And uh, next we'll jump in here, see what's going on today. Starting with the DXY. Uh, we are getting a little bit of strength in the dollar today. Uh, was looking to see if we got follow-through or a push lower. Think of this as an upward-facing uh potential pattern. Those are bearish, but we've got a decent candle today. So we'll see if we get any follow-through here upwards. Really what I'm waiting on it's I'm not too worried about this dollar here. I'm really waiting to see which way yields break because I think that could determine how strong or weak the dollar will be in the future.
So when we look at the 2-year yield, it's up slightly. We're squeezed into the corner. This is where the action's going to occur soon. I think we're heading higher on the longer-term basis. So, even if we dive a little bit lower like this, I think it'll be a false breakout to go higher. And that deals with where we're at with commodities. And commodities are all breaking higher. So, I I don't see how we could have a long sustaining move lower without going higher. It doesn't make any sense. I don't think it's possible. That That's what I'll say there.
10-year yields already breaking higher. Uh, we've got a 62% up day today. We we're at resistance and a flag pattern whenever it decides to show up here and we're starting to break higher. I know Bent, I know Trump do not want this to go higher. They're going to throw the whole kitchen sink at this thing. So, we're squeezed up. I think we're probably going to try to break higher. They're going to have to come out and do quantitative easing. They could already be in there holding this down already. They're probably holding gold and silver down, too. And they're probably holding oil down. They're going to do whatever they can to keep this down. If they are doing that, they're just going to spark a gigantic move to the upside and everything. Yields will break out at some point out in the future. Oil's going to rip. uh precious metals will they'll lose control of the market. And it's it's not about losing control of the paper market. It's losing control of the physical market. And remember, they're papering over a bunch of crap and oil, too. They're doing they're doing all the same tricks. But here it is. It's trying to break higher. The 30-year already broke out. It's moving higher. But again, they're going to have to keep this stuff down to keep the stock market from rolling over. We get much above 5%, which is exactly where we stopped, they're probably already in there trying to do stuff, and they just at some point they're going to be less and less effective. If this thing starts to go, you're going to see a greater rotation of money out of bonds, out of potentially stocks when you get about that 5% area. And then it's going to roll into commodities and precious metals.
TLT heading a little bit lower today with yields going up a little bit. I still think this is going to break lower. Some people think that this is going to break higher. That's our that's our difference there. I'm going to stick with the low and we're in the downtrend. Two in the 10 is down. It's it's pulling back uninverting. [clears throat] It is not uninverting from people running into bonds. It is uninverting people running away from the long end of the curve. The 10-year went up more than the 2-year. That's what this ratio is indicating. Some people say, "Well, that means we're going to go into a recession." Show me a recession in the past 50 years that yields went up in. I'll just end it like that. Tyx TNX ratio uh was pretty much flat. So, no movement there.
Gold is slightly lower. Uh, we're at support. You can look at this from two perspectives. Bearish perspective is this is more of a an inverted flag pattern. The bullish perspective is you are at support. Your support's all through here and we could roll and turn on up because we're at support. We'll see which direction we go over the next few trading sessions. Silver's up 1.88%. It's been consolidating with they're throwing everything at this. I think we had three margin uh requirement hikes. [clears throat] So, the fact that it's still sitting here is is pretty bullish. Platinum went through the same thing. It was up 5.15% today. This wants to go up. Uh, it's going to outperform gold, I think. And that's your signal for a commodity bull market and an inflationary environment. Ladyium up 2.7%. That looks like it's trying to bottom here and turn and roll on higher. But I'm sure they're back there doing stuff with all of them. They're trying to slow this move. I think the banks are screwed and they're trying to hold silver down. So they're using everything in their arsenal to hold this down. It'll become less effective as the paper market breaks away from the physical market.
XEU to gold ratio. The gold and silver mining companies, they're still trading similarly, I think, with the paper market. And we'll see what their earnings look like if they're selling at the physical market. That that could be a a very big surprise in earnings if that were occurring. So, this still looks good. There's not much selling pressure there. Still at a very low uh area. And again, this is going to be a generational opportunity when this breaks and moves. So, some of you guys are probably up hundreds, maybe even thousands of percents if you're part of the website. Just hold on. We're going to we're going to keep going here, guys. Uh, give it time. Uh, time is the is the friend of of the of the person who purchases low and has good value. So, GDX uh is chopping sideways. Not much selling pressure. GDXJ, same thing. Got got some buying pressure there. It's not a big deal. Silj again. Uh, it's not big selling pressure candlesticks. We're not closing at lows. We're not ripping lower. So everything looks good. And again, this is this is a pretty big move. And of adding fresh capital up here. That's not something I would do, but we are uh we look okay.
Crude oil is down 0.21%. We're chopping sideways here. We could chop for a little bit longer. Um, I would say [clears throat] hopefully we chop sideways for a good few months so I can buy all the stuff I want to. That's what I'm hoping for. But we're chopping today. TT and we're squeezing into the corner still. Uh, here it is. I I think this looks fantastic to go higher with time. Looks very good. TTF gas up two and a half%. That's working its way on up. Looking good. We've got natural gas in America. Uh, small down day. Nothing really to worry about. We're right on support. Uh, we've broken out of this pattern to the upside. I am still bullish on it. Um, I don't think there's anything you can do to make me bearish unless you really start to break through some of this stuff to the downside with some pretty strong movements, but I think some cold weather's coming in a week or so. Maybe that can suck down some inventory.
Our boy XOP, yeah, you know me, up 2.14%. Looking pretty solid today. I don't know if we're heading lower. This looks like we're heading higher. Looks good. Looks good. OIH up about 4%. That's looking very good. Or a potential uh move higher. And again, this could be a shoulder head and a shoulder potential breakout here. And then we are rolling, rolling, rolling. Newcastle coal futures down slightly, but we're still above support. The big long-term looks pretty good there. That's that's generally where I buy. And then again, we're we're heading a little bit lower in the short short term. It's brought fiscal uranium trust heading up 1.75%. We're breaking through this pattern. Everything looks bullish here, guys. And we've broken through this bigger flag pattern to the upside. So, again, the short term, guys, the short term is going to get you all twisted up and turned around. Long term, uh, we're going higher, guys. We're going way higher. So, just don't don't get too twisted in the short term. Long-term looks really good. Uranium futures pricing is down slightly and I don't know if that's from last week or not, but uh that still looks fine. We're just trying to break out here. URRA, we're seeing a lot of uh flows into the uh uranium equities. So, that was up 7.8% looking good. Got the double arrows there. The double arrows. URMM. Uh, also I I swapped this a little bit. Probably take these little guys out. I swapped um the chart to look like this, which is just a flag pattern. We're breaking the flag pattern. Looks really good. UNJ, similar pattern, flag pattern, breaking to the upside. Looks fantastic. Big candlesticks. Closing strong.
Now, tomorrow we could get maybe a little bloody nose, a little profit-taking day. Not a big deal, guys. Like, this is where you're going to make a ton of money. You know how you make a ton of money? You don't worry about the short term. You get long because commodity we're in a commodity bull market. Uh focus on the big long-term picture like URA. This this is this is going to be a big one, guys. This is going to be a big one. This is your bearish news. This is your bullish news. This is the the double bottom. Um, this is where I went long was over here back in October and November. You can even look at my old videos. went bullish all through here and I've just been long the entire time. Uh, we have a one, two, and then this is in wave three and we're going to get way up here. It's going to get jiggy with it. Uh, nickel.
Nickel is down today. Little bit of a pullback. Maybe we get a pullback, maybe we don't. Maybe they maybe the insiders are trying to slow it down. I don't know. I know JP Morgan when we had this big breakout back here, like this big old move here, this whole thing. JP Morgan's like, "Oh, we'll get in there. We'll uh we'll suppress it." Go look at the articles back then, but we have another breakout. I think nickel's going to go higher. Looks good longer term. Shorter term, a little bit of selling pressure. We could have a consolidation or something. Whatever it is.
Copper's up a little bit. This is consolidating sideways. I'm sure they're in there doing crap with copper, too. Is this all these margin uh requirement hikes? Yeah, they they sold off across the board. But yeah, this is just starting to break out. We're going to get a big move. It's going to be like silver. TX up 1.77%. The equity is getting some flows. Looking good. Not much selling pressure. Everything here is downward facing. It looks good. We've got lithium up 2.17%. This is going to take a rip. This is going to take a big rip at some point here. I mean, this thing's going to rip rip. It's going to look good. Uh, and again, I've got a whole bunch of ideas on good lithium companies on the website if you guys want to know my favorites. RMX up 3.87%. That's going to rip higher, too. That looks really good. It's getting out of this resistance zone. And that's generally when you make another leg higher. So, hopefully that occurs and we get a uh nice little rip all the way up here or something. Little pause and then another rip. What? This looks so good. Looks good.
Uh, iron ore chopping sideways. We're still in this uh little resistance box. Have not broken out of it yet, but I wouldn't I wouldn't get discouraged. Patience. We're seeing nickel break. We're seeing copper break. We're seeing aluminum, which is coming up next. That's breaking higher. This will come. Uh, we're seeing even lumber bottom out. I know nobody talks about lumber. I get it. Uh, but some opportunities there. Uh, aluminum. There it is. See that thing ripping higher. Ripping higher. And and and patience here, guys. Patience. Uh, we have a company, an aluminum company that we bought between six and 10 bucks. It's well over 20 now. Well, actually, it's might be over might be over 30 now. Gez, might be over 30. But yeah, aluminum looks really good. Uh, Baltic dry index pulling back a little bit. I think there's a huge opportunity in Baltic dry index even you know remember Baltic dry index ships a lot of iron ore and coal you know what's down right now iron ore and coal yeah this is this is a good opportunity here.
Emerging markets up 2.8%. 8%. Remember the people that were like, "Oh, it's rolling over on Twitter." Oh god, did they get this one wrong? Here it is. Now, remember I said about the launch pad? We're going to launch higher. Oh, here we go. There it is. See that little green guy there? Oh, man. This is This is good. This is go time. Oh, this is such a good thing for me. Sorry, guys. I just had to say that. Um, I'm long emerging markets. Just put it that way. Here we are breaking higher. Looks really good. We move up 1.21%. Like I said, we're putting in the right hand shoulder of an inverted shoulder head shoulder. We are going to break and we are going to run. Well, Andy, how do you know that? Well, you got the pattern here. It's basically in front of your face and everything else is moving. So, you think it's not going to follow the whole commodity bull market? Yeah, it will. It's coming.
K up 66% today. Uh, we're got this little pullback. I don't know if this is legit. It could be a little bit of a false breakdown. We'll see. We'll see what happens here. There's a lot going on in this chart. There's a lot going on, but we're above we're above a lot of major support. So, we'll see if we head up head on higher. Home builders up one and a half%. Again, guys, we are above support. Support here. Support here. I'm bullish home builders. Does that seem weird? Does that seem weird? Is Trump going to get in there and do something here? This is a this is a a flag pattern here. That's a bullish formation to break higher. Then on the longer term, we've got even more bullish. This is this this is going to be a launch. I don't know how they're going to do it. Don't know. Don't care. Be a launch high. It's going to be one, two, three, four, five, six.
Russell's up 1%. That's uh looking better. I'm sure they're in there buying buying it up. Plunge protection team. S&P is up a little bit. And then the NASDAQ is down, but we're still above support. Nothing really to worry about at this exact moment. Uh, DJT is up about 1%. We're in that support resistance box. Looking good. I'd like to see it break through here. And I'm sure it will. I'm sure they're printing money uh hand over fist or maybe it's uh double clicking their mouse on the computer because that's what they do best.
XLI up 1.84%. Nice little return move. We'll see if we can get a move higher here in the State Street Industrial Select Sector, which is kind of the gauge of the economy. Put it that way. SMCI up 5.7%. I'm going to skip through those.
Bitcoin's up a little bit. Yeah, Ethereum's up 4.11%. That looks good to go higher. It's It held. It held here and it's moving on up. Micro Strategy up 3.43%. And I've got this chopping sideways here. That is Sailor. He does look a little worried. And again, I think we're going to do that. So, we'll we'll get some up and down motion here for a bit.
The VIX is down 2.8%. They're holding it down. Uh, if or the market, I don't know. We'll see. I don't know if the plunge protection team is in here or not, but uh, it's it's held down. It's looking good. Uh, and we're seeing some movement, upward movement in some of the currency exchange rates. I'll just say that.
But that's what I've got for today, guys. Give me a thumb up for the content. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you'd like. Especially as that coupon code. And that's all I've got. So, we'll catch you next time, guys. See you. Oh, Saturday Q&A session, 7 a.m. Mountain time. All right. See you.