Transcription
The US is getting down to the tipping point. Uh, China, I think, still has large amounts of reserves. Uh, Europe is going to be tight. Um, you're going to see the big issue is not as much the uh crude oil as the products. If we got above 150 or 140 where you have that 20.4%, I think you will be in a severe recession.
So, is it fair to say that the US is not totally insulated from the Hormuz Strait being closed? There's currently a 30% chance that the oil price can go above $115 by the end of the year and a higher than 20% chance that it'll go above $140 by this year. That's according to prediction market odds on Koshi. And if that happens, well, that's it. That's the start of a severe global recession, according to our next guest, Joseph Shar, president of Shar Energy Research Services and the author of The Shar Report. Well, Joseph's been on the show before. Check out his last interview with me, link down below, where he outlines his last energy calls. And Joseph's not calling for the end of the world, but he is going to outline the assumptions behind a plus $100 oil price target by the end of the year. What could cause the oil price to spike up again? What events would trigger such a spike and when could they happen? Importantly, Joseph is going to outline his base case oil price target assumptions by the end of the year and uh what is likely going to happen with the Strait of Hormuz and how and when if a resolution can occur between the US and Iran. This is a very important interview. It affects all of us. So, stay tuned.
This video is sponsored by Koshi, the largest prediction market in the United States. Unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real-world events from economic data to political outcomes. And the price moves based on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below or scan the QR code here to get started. And new users who use my code, Lynn, L-I-N, can get $10 when you sign up and trade $10. So, right now, going back to the trade of how high the oil price can get on Koshi, if you put $50 down on $140 and you turn out to be correct, that payoff could be $233. So, check it out. Link down below or scan the QR code on the screen.
Joseph, welcome back to the show. Good to see you.
Good to be with you again. The uncertainty of whether or not the Strait of Hormuz will open or stay closed remains top of mind, but it doesn't seem like the oil market is reacting too much on the news anymore. Recall that a couple weeks ago a ceasefire was reached and just earlier this week, this past week, Joseph, the um uh the Trump administration has declared, well, specifically just Donald Trump has declared that the ceasefire is over in his words. And he said during he said this during a NATO summit, if you recall, um he called the Iranians all sorts of bad names and he said that uh yeah, we're basically he's done. He said he's done. He said verbatim, we're done talking to them. Interestingly, oil hasn't spiked up to $80 a barrel or anything much higher than it was just a couple days ago. Do you think that uh the oil market is now pricing in something a little more fundamental rather than just talk?
Yeah, I think there's two things, David, that to cover is uh one uh, you know, the the the drama that we get out of President Trump and the Iranian IRGC. Um, you know, remember there was a lot of emotion uh when they were burying the Supreme Leader who was killed. And so, you know, hundreds of thousands of people were in the street. The IRGC uh, you know, wanted to punish. So we saw them attack two crude oil carriers, one of them uh Saudi one and then an LNG carrier from from Qatar and then that's the tit for tat started. $80 from the, you know, from them attacking US military bases and others, you know, facilities across western um Persian Gulf and then the Americans retaliating. The bottom line is, even though Trump said there are ceasefires over, there hasn't been much activity in the last 24 hours and there's he did mention that they would allow talks to continue. So the key thing is, um, there will be talks continuing. Uh, I don't think the Americans can see a victory out of this war. Uh, Iran keeps on feeling that the longer they stay in the game, the better off they are. So this thing drags out and is in favor of Iran. Let's go to the physical issues of oil. Once we got the the safety of traveling, there's really three avenues to get oil out of the out of the out of the Strait. One of them is is if you're willing to abide by Iran um and give them all the information, pay them, you know, a dollar a barrel to travel. And so a lot of uh, you know, oil that was bought by some countries uh went through the Iranian channel. The middle channel is the biggest one. That's where the mines are and they have to be cleared and right now Iran is not clearing them. The US is not really doing much there and that's really the issue. The more the quicker you clear that, the more ships can get out and go in. On the American side, we saw the attacks occur. So that's why the traffic has slowed down and maybe 10, 15 ships are getting out versus the 40 that were getting out before. The big issue to remember is ships are loading and getting out. Ships are not coming back. So, while there's a lot of oil that's gone on and and is in the water and is available, that's why we're seeing the price of oil at $71.5. Remember, right after the rhetoric from President Trump, we were over $76 US a barrel. So, we're now $71.5 today. Um, I think that if the talks start again and there's no really big uh military action, I think we go back down to the mid-60s. I think that's another great buying opportunity for investors. Stocks may retreat another 10, 15% but they're already cheap trading under three times cash flow and we would recommend investors take advantage of the next uh the the correction that we see uh unfolding in the next week or two.
As you can see there, you can see the, you know, the price in July, um, which was at the low July 2nd, $67, rallied over $76. Uh, but you can go to the beginning of the war in early March. You can see where it was, you know, the $115, $120 range. So, um, I think that uh, one more pullback here and every pullback you see from now on, uh, on weakness, you want to be a buyer. Stocks are cheap at under three times cash flows. I keep repeating, um, and uh, you know, you could buy yourself large cap, middle cap, small cap. We cover three con three groups, conservative, growth, and entrepreneurial. So the conservative, of course, are dividend payers, large companies, strong balance sheets, and you combine a lot of good ones yielding, you know, five, 6%. Um, then you go to growth, which are of course companies that are drilling and trying to get, you know, four to 6% volume growth on top of um, you know, the the recovery in the price of oil that we see later on. I'll talk about that next. And then the entrepreneurial stocks are companies where the drill bit matters and if they're successful with the drill bit, that's how you get your five and 10 baggers. So right now, we're in the view that we're going to be $80 average in Q4. Um, because people will start to see that uh inventories are being rebuilt for the S, you know, SPRs that were drawn down, u that there's going to be winter, of course, comes, which is more so about half a million barrels a day more of more will be put back into the SPRs. Remember, Europe, China, and and US SPRs came down rapidly. Um, and then the second part of that would be, winter comes and weather really increases demand by a million, million and a half barrels globally per, you know, per day. So all of that means that we're going to have a strong Q4 and then I think in 2027, we're using an average price of $90 uh per barrel for the year. It'll be, you know, probably have a $20 swing. So $110 at the high and $70 at the low. But we're bullish uh for and we see taking advantage of markets. We sent out an action buy as you remember in April of 2025 and that really worked out extremely well for investors. The S&P/TSX Energy Index doubled from that low and a lot of stocks were doubles and triples from that from that low in April. So there were bargains galore. People took advantage of it or those who did um made out exceptionally well. We think this next buy signal, which will come in the next couple weeks, um on a mid-60s price, will be another great buying opportunity and heading into 2027, um, I think there's, you know, significant upside uh and into the end of the decade, significant upside for investors in buying uh Canadian energy securities and Canadian energy securities are trading cheaper than US ones and and and international names.
I want to come back to that valuation gap in just a minute. Going back to oil, how much of the market is pricing in um sustainable reserves depletion? So take a look at this title, for example. This is from Reuters, dated last month in June. "China seeing tapping deeper into oil stockpiles as imports hit a decade low." That makes sense because imports primarily come from Iran. China is expected to tap deeper into its record crude oil inventories as refiners cut imports further while maintaining output curves to minimize refining losses amid weak fuel demand. Analysts, industry officials say temp demand from the world's top crude importers partly capping global oil prices, which have fallen 19% in May, even amid a strain ceasefire. Now, there's two things at play here. One is the fact they're tapping into their oil reserves. The second is that apparently demand is lower. That seems to be an issue that's not really related to the Middle East.
Yeah, let's talk about that. You know, the the demand um in, you know, they're stopping exports of refinery product because they needed it internally. So that's uh, you know, that affected the export side. But remember, the Chinese are very sophisticated commodity investors. When prices are high, they back away. When prices are cheap, they load up. And so what's the price at the low that they would buy? So if you go to the Federal Reserve of Dallas, they do a lot of good work and have great charts and the remember Texas is the biggest oil producer in the United States and so if the US is producing 23.8 million, you know, around 10 million of that comes just from that one state. And so they're, they in their charts show all the basins and what the break-even price is. And that's mid-60s. So the biggest producer in the world, you know, 23.8 million of the 106, you know, or so million that's consumed every day comes from the US and the US needs mid-60s. Of course, Saudi Arabia needs less, but they really haven't been able to increase their production. Many OPEC countries don't have enough money to reinvest and of course, with the war going on, so much facilities have been destroyed, uh, that they have to be rebuilt. So China is, you know, is probably buying. We've seen them announce recently that they're back, they've allowed the teapots to go back in and buy and they're buying oil now again because they like these cheap prices. And remember, every country is desperate to find buyers because there's a lot of water oil on the water, so they're discounting it. So even though we're $71.50 or so for WTI and add four bucks or so for Brent, prices are being for volumes that are being sold are lower than that because Iran is desperate to get money. So they're selling it $7, $8 lower. Saudi Arabia is selling it for a buck or two lower um than those prices. And all of them, what they're trying to do is get the oil out of the Gulf and get those ships out of the Gulf. And then the issue is going to be, will there be a resolution where there will not be tariffs or tolls or environmental taxes or whatever uh Iran thinks they they can draw up with Oman um and if there's free passage, then ships will come in. But if I was a company and I had a ship, I want to load it, get it out, get the American Navy side to take it out on on that lane, and then I'm not bringing it back unless I can get insurance coverage that I'm not going to have my employees stuck there on the ships. I don't have to worry about my ship being attacked. And so the problem is going to be getting back in and that's where we see the higher price of oil coming into play um in Q4 and in 2027.
There is an ongoing debate online about how much reserves countries have to offset weaker um export out of the uh GCC. So I'll just take this as an example. This is from Reddit and again, this is other people posting, so we have to double-check sources here and there. And the title of this particular post is, "I think we're much closer to running out of crude oil than the media wants to let on." And he's got here a table showing the supply of petroleum, um, a week ago, a year ago, four-week averages, um, and showing supply dwindling, of course. The question is, I mean, these numbers aside, the question is, according to your own research, do we have any evidence to suggest that outside of the United States, the countries that depend on crude oil imports from the GCC have enough reserves to sustain their to sustain themselves if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen anytime soon? That's the big question and that's where you have the the the issue of much higher prices. If this war extends and the ships don't come back into the Gulf to reload, then inventories around the world will come down. So, let me throw you some numbers. Prior to the war, there was 88, 89 days of global inventories between onshore and on the water. Normally, that's be that should be 88 to 92. It was right where it should have been pre-war. With the war going on and and the shipping going down, even though Saudi Arabia used that pipeline to the Red Sea, even though Oman has another pipeline, UAE's got some oil going uh away from the Strait, uh, we're still looking at uh a shortage of four to 5 million barrels. So if that continues into um, you know, November, December when this cold weather and demand really picks up, I think that's when you have that pinch point argument that we may have an insufficient supply and then prices will take off. I'm not in the camp calling for $100 or $120, but I think we could see $80, $90 oil trade during Q4 because there's still a lot of oil on the water. And I also think with the US election in November, there's pressure on the United States to come to some kind of resolution so that the price at the pump is not at, you know, $5, but more closer to $3. And to me, I think that's really the key.
That's the, here's a prediction market, Kawoshi. How high will it get by the end of the year? Traders are assigning a 20% chance that it'll get to $140 or above. Um, does that seem high to you? Or I mean, 20% is still a fat tail chance, but it's not 2%, it's 20. Um, maybe let's walk through what assumptions could be behind this 20% and whether or not you agree with some of these assumptions here. You mentioned a few, right? Uh, dwindling reserves. Um, what else could traders be factoring in?
Well, the the issue is, you know, demand destruction. If the price of oil gets up above $120, $130, I think we're going to see significant demand destruction and probably a global recession. If we got above $150 or $140 where you have that 20.4%, I think you will be in a severe recession and demand destruction will be maybe five, maybe 8 million barrels. That would put supply in in demand in balance and that price spike may not stay up for long. So, I'm in the camp that there will be a resolution of some kind. There will be alternative shipping routes to get out through the Red Sea. Um, you know, through the change in pipelines, I think you'll see um, you know, the the um, you know, the price goes up. Uh, buyers will back off, especially China. Um, you know, they'll use their SPR. They'll, uh, demand destruction will occur there. Um, you know, just think about it. If you're paying, you know, $180 to, you know, you know, well, you're paying in Alberta $1.70, you're probably paying $2 a liter in BC. Um, if it got to $3 a liter, how many people would drive as much or they curtail their driving? So, I think price sensitivity is there. I know in Alberta when uh when prices got up higher, um, you know, we did see dem, you know, demand destruction and so I think the higher the price gets, the quicker demand destruction kicks in. I I can see the economy handling a $100, maybe $110, $110 a barrel US. Uh, but anything in the $120, $130s, there will be demand destruction and a global economic slowdown to recession or severe recession the higher that price gets. So if you get to that $140 and there's 20% believe that, I think that's going to be a problem and that will set up a global recession.
This is, so there's an IMF article that I want to read to you to support what you just said. But above $100 is assuming the Strait of Hormuz has to stay closed, there's a renunciation of the war or escalation somehow, and that reserves deplete. Those are the baseline assumptions here, or am I missing something?
No, I think you know, you're on the topic there and the key thing is is how much is left in strategic petroleum reserves around the world. The US is getting down to the tipping point. Uh, China, I think still has large amounts of reserves. Uh, Europe is going to be tight. Um, you're going to see the big issue is not as much the uh crude oil as the products because if you, you know, if the refineries are down and and and of course the refineries, you know, we've seen all the problems with Russia, the refineries in the Gulf in the Gulf, you know, you know, Persian Gulf have been impacted by the violence there. So you may have a problem where um, you know, sulfur will be in shortage, which means, you know, higher grain prices. We're going to probably see um, you know, higher um, you know, shortages and potentially rationing of uh of gasoline or diesel at the pump um during, you know, during the winter. I remember in the '70s, my parents, you know, we they had a license plate and if you had an even number at the end or an odd number at the end, you could go on those days when it was an even or odd number to get gasoline. So most Canadians don't remember those days, but the reality is, uh, when there's a shortage of product, there's going to be allocation of that product.
I wonder if people stole a second plate just to get gas all the time. I wonder if.
Yeah, those are those are different days. So, what about this story that I have on my screen? "Strategic oil reserve buying set to support crude demand through 2028." Do you support that idea? The notion that it's not just the private sector that's going to demand, the citizens of the world demanding oil, it's the governments needing to replenish their strategic reserves that will prop oil above $16 throughout 2027 and 2028. You see there in that article by Reuters that the SPR build estimate is 664,000. Um, I'm using uh 500,000 in my calculations because I believe prices will go up and you know, the buyers to fill the SPR are price sensitive. If you get prices below $70, there are buyers. Um, between $70 and $75, they're neutral. Above $75, $80, they're probably negative. Uh, not going to be buyers. So, um, I think
There's no minimum amount as required by law.
Joseph.
There are, it's not there. The key thing is the storage facilities. If you take them down too low, the pressures come down and it becomes harder and harder to drain them afterwards. So there's an an an economic issue and there's also a physical um, you know, engineering issue. And I think that uh, if we go down um, you know, you know, for another three, four months on on the SPRs uh with no opening of the of the Strait, I think at that point you're going to be at the critical uh economic and and and engineering side and the SPRs cannot be drained any further.
So you're expecting it to be have to be refilled in the coming months for technical and physical limitation reasons.
I I think if if the worst case that you you'd argue that point. I believe that this is, you know, this back and forth tit for tat between United States and Iran, um, is just something to drag out for a number for a number of weeks, maybe at the month, a month or two, and then I think they'll get back to the bargaining table. Um, and then if the Straits do find a way and you know, if the Americans acquiesce to Oman and um, and u and you know, Iran getting some kind of revenue out of it, um, you know, but but I think most of the other Persian Gulf producers, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, etc., they're not going to be happy about any tariff and they're going to look at alternatives, which means pipelines going to other routes. You know, Iran would be, you know, right now gets oil in, you know, from Iraq going through. Iraq is already talking to Turkey and Syria about pipelines and truck routes to bring oil that way. Um, the Saudis are talking about bringing it uh west into the Red Sea. So everybody's trying to find alternatives. So, you know, could you argue that there's going to be 10 million barrels that don't come out from the Strait? I think by the end of the year, that's maybe going to be three or four million and I think the world can adjust to a three or four million um, you know, less production. Um, remember the US is producing 20.66 um, sorry, 23.8 million. Just on oil, they're 475,000 barrels ahead of last year.
And natural gas liquids, they're 10.14, up 567. So the US alone is over a million barrels of increased liquids production from a year ago. That's straight out of the EIA data that's right in front of me, similar to what you showed me earlier on on that on that chart. So the reality is, people need to realize that the American system because of the uh improvements in drilling in fracking and in and more pipelines being built, the US production base continues to grow. And that really and then the Canadian base continues to grow. And you hear all these announcements of more deals all the time, more pipelines, you know, Enbridge doing one, uh, the one with South Bow, the one going west, you know, TMX getting full. All of that means it will be 6.2, 2, 6.3. And people need to realize Canada is the fourth largest producer in the world. The US is the biggest by 23.8, then you go to 10.4 for Saudi, 10 for Russia. And Russia, you know, of course, can't refine it. So they're selling more oil because of the refineries being destroyed uh by the Ukrainian drones. And then Canada, which was 6.1 million last year, is probably going to grow by 100,000 barrels a day per year uh as we fill up the pipelines that are available right now. And that number can accelerate once all these new pipelines get built. But that's, we're talking in the next decade for mo for the big boys like the TMX, you know, the doubling of the TMX, the routing of that, you know, the the 500,000 going into Sarnia that that Premier Ford talked about with Daniel Smith, our premier. Uh, all of those will take time to be built.
Okay. There seems to be a little bit of confusion um in the public sphere about how much oil is needed to be imported into the US given that, like you said, the oil, the US is the world's largest oil exporter. The US still needs to import a lot of its oil primarily because the oil produced domestically um from shale is light in Sweden. Refiners are set up to refine heavier sour cruds. So, correct, how much oil actually is
being used domestically from the oil produced
from the US versus how much is being imported.
If we go through there, you know, the United States consumes, as I mentioned, 20.5 million and they produce 23.8, but their net imports last week were 2.4 million barrels. Canada's the biggest one producing. Uh, Venezuela's shipping in a half a million with Chevron operating in in Venezuela. Mexico puts in Mayans into there. Um, and you get some heavier cruds coming from other places, but Canada is the biggest supplier. Probably 60% of the total that they import comes from the United from Canada. And it's, as you said, the refineries in the Midwest, the refineries on the Gulf Coast were built for heavy crude. And so the light oil that's been found in the Permian, the Eagleford is what is being sold to the rest of the world. And last week, um, exports were 3.3 million barrels.
So, is it fair to say that the US is not totally insulated from the Hormuz Strait being closed?
They are totally insulated because they don't buy anything from that area. They're buying from they're buying from Canada,
Venezuela. They're buying from Canada. So, they're we're way away from from the Strait. So, the US has no impact at all uh from that. You know, maybe a cargo might come in from Iraq at some points during the year or Saudi, uh, but the majority of the the imports come from Canada, uh, Mexico, and and Colombia and Venezuela.
So all this talk of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to benefit the American people because the price needs to come down. Can it not be done in theory that the Americans just strike a private deal with their importers, Venezuela, Canadians, for example, to buy at a fixed price that's lower than market?
I don't believe that'll happen. Every oil is a global mechanism. We've got the TMX pipeline so we can sell west. Um, you know, the world is on a, you know, is it's a global depending upon the grade of the crude and where it's coming from, transportation issues. So, it's different from natural gas where we we we're locked in on a continental basis except for the growing LNG component that's getting higher prices. So, um, I think that, uh, you know, if if people think we are impacted by what's going on in the Middle East in terms of the reality of of us filling up our tanks at home or, you know, getting propane for our for our barbecues, it will not impact us. It will just be price sensitive. It will not be uh availability.
Where do Canadians get our gas and oil from, by the way?
Mostly from Alberta.
Okay.
It's, you know, Saskatchewan is an oil producer. Uh, Alberta is an oil and gas producer. Northeast BC is a natural gas producer and liquids, some some liquids. So BC's opportunity is that Fort St. John area, that whole area there could be a fabulous growth area. That's why we saw Shell buy Arc because they want to get that gas because they need a long reserve life index to justify building LNG plants on the west coast. So they need to get 25, 30 years of reserves that they use against the 25 or or so years of contracted LNG to justify spending those tens of billions of dollars to build those LNG plants.
Okay. Now let's talk about why you think Canadian uh oil producers are a better value. So here we have, let me just share with you this article here and let me just set the stage. There are some plans according to the CBC for more pipelines to export Canadian oil um from the Carney government. Pipeline announcements seem to be in abundance at the moment with ambitions to see more Alberta crude flowing both east and west. Help me understand this. What is Prime Minister Carney's, not the past Trudeau government, but what is Prime Minister Carney's cabinet's attitude towards pipelines?
Well, they they have changed, you know, 180 degrees from Justin Trudeau, who is against fossil fuels, and they've realized that we're a resource country. And so, if we're going to get a bigger pie to pay for social services and our debt and, you know, all the the interest coverage, all the rest of it, pensions going forward, you know, healthcare, everything, they need a bigger pie. What's our pie? Our pie is not in our industrial base in Ontario and Quebec. Our pie forest products, it's precious metals, its base metals, and the biggest one that's the mo biggest generator of of funds flow to Canada is energy. So, it's natural gas and it's oil. And that's really where they've made the decision, but they want it to be done as environmentally conscious as they can. That's why they're still wanting that carbon capture facility. So, if the oil sands want to grow, they have to build the carbon capture. And the reverse for them to cover that cost is maybe a royalty uh holiday or royalty exemption for a period of time to recover the cost of building that carbon capture facility.
Basically, Canadian oil and gas companies are undervalued because most of the future um potential hasn't been uh baked into the price yet. This this potential that the Carney government is cooking up, it hasn't been fully reflected by the government uh but by the market rather.
Yeah, that would be for the oil sands because there's some ifs related to that. It's the if of carbon capture. It's the if of the cost of building greenfield new facilities. So all of that is related to the oil sands. Conventional light oil um is and and remember, if you want to move heavy oil through pipelines, you need diluent and that's where the condensate comes in on these natural gas wells in the Montney and the Duvernay because the liquids go over to the Edmonton area and they're mixed and with the with the heavy cruds coming from Fort from Fort Mac and that's where they then go into the pipeline system. But they need that mix from the heavy and the liquid because we're really talking an asphaltic heavy and you got to put some something in there to make it move easier and that's where the diluent comes in.
So what is the opportunity for investors looking for oil companies specifically in Canada here?
Well, the you can look at it from different ways. You can look at it from owning uh the oil producers that are the light oil medium gravity oil producers, you know, taking, you know, Whitecap or other names like that that are that that fill that ba that ba basin. You want to go into the oil sands and it's CNQ and Suncor. Um, and so if you want to go into natural gas, you had Arc, but it's gone. So you have Tourmaline and and you have, you know, Peyto and other names like that, Birchcliff. And then if you want to go into the oil service industry, you've got the drillers, you got the frackers, you know. So in the drillers, you got Precision and Ensign, um, and Total. And if you go to the frackers, of course, you've got Tricon, um, STEP, and Calfrac. Well, STEP's no longer public anymore. You've got Calfrac that's public. So, there's a lot of ways to play the industry, uh, both from the point of view of the producers and the people that help the producers get that, um, production to market.
Okay. Finally, I want to point to what you alluded to earlier, which is a global recession. This is from the IMF. According to their latest uh Global Economic World Economic Outlook, they um they are projecting global growth to decline from 3.5% down to 3% in 2026 before climbing back up to 3.4%. The global economy as a whole so far has weathered the shock from the war better than feared, the researcher said, but movements in and repercussions from the main channels of transmission, commodity prices, inflation expectations, and financial conditions have been relatively limited. Now, are you, the decline in growth, is that not your base case given that you think a resolution will happen sometime in the next couple months like you said earlier, Joseph?
Yeah, I think that, you know, the resolution will have to happen because Iran's economy is in a disaster. So, they have a reason to want to find a, you know, get the best deal possible and the Americans want out. So, they're probably going to get a better deal than the maybe theou had in it. Uh, specifics. Uh, but I think that global growth is going to happen. That's why, you know, you've still got, you know, forecasters saying demand will grow by a million barrels in 2026 and 1.2, 2, 1.3. But historically, we've grown by between 1 and 1.3 million barrels per day when you do not have an economic slowdown. Uh, the last time we had a big problem was of course during COVID with demand fell apart, fell apart because of shutdown economies. I don't believe we're looking at global shutdown economies. So if you have that uh million barrel a day increase, just take in account the US as I mentioned earlier, US alone is consuming 20.66 up from 20.12 a year ago. So that's 550,000 of that 1 million we're talking about, half of it's coming from the US. Then you take in account parts of Asia, Africa, um, and, you know, a million barrels of growth this year is not is not unreasonable.
All right. Thank you, Joseph. I appreciate your insights. That was uh a wonderful summary of what's happening right now. We'll follow up with more updates as the uh story progresses. Where can we follow you in the meantime?
Yeah, just go to our website www.shar SharEnergyReport.ca. Um, at our website, you'll see that we have, you know, uh, old copies of our research that you can take a look at and see what we do. We cover 35 companies all the way from the biggest company like a Tourmaline down to companies that are sub-200 million uh versus a $23 billion market cap for a Tourmaline. Um, and as I mentioned, we cover Canadian domestics, Canadians working around the world like in Thailand or Colombia, etc., and then the service sector. So there's lots of opportunity out there um and um and uh, you know, I think you were given a discount code for for your listeners, uh, so take advantage of that. I think it's POD100. Um, so our regular rate is $9.99 for the annual, uh, so you save $100 off that. And for your international listeners, remember the Canadian dollar is trading at, you know, 71 cents. So, it's a real bargain in in American dollars or other currencies.
All right. Well, uh, put the discount code in the link down below. So, make sure to check out the Shar Energy Report. Thank you very much, Joseph, for your time today. We'll speak again.
My pleasure, David.
And thanks for watching. Please do subscribe, like, and share this video. Follow Joseph in the links down below. And don't forget to use my code Lynn when you sign up to Koshi. Remember, new users who sign up and use my code Lynn can get $10 when you use my code and trade $10. Link down below or scan the QR code here.