Transcription
What is going on traders? Let's get you ready for the week. Huge week in the stock market this week. BMR, IEN, Tesla, Corewave options flow. We have to talk about this because there are a lot of options hitting the tape. And if you own this or want to trade it, you definitely want to listen up here.
Tuesday, we have Jolts job openings. There is also an Amazon event. This Amazon event has to do with Amazon hardware. It's not really an AI event, although I suspect that they that the topic of AI will come up with regards to how it integrates with their hardware.
On Wednesday, we have ADP non-farm payrolls at 8:15, ISM manufacturing PMI at 10, and more importantly, we have a Google Gemini event. Now, we're going to go over Google's chart as well because if there is a sell the news effect, in my opinion, you definitely want to buy Google. Obviously, we are in Google pretty heavy. been giving you those updates since the 140s.
On Thursday, we have Tesla Q3 deliveries. Now, this is going to be a big one because, as we know, Tesla numbers have really been declining year-over-year and even quarter over quarter. But because of that $7,500 federal EV subsidy that expires September 30th, there was a rush to purchase Tesla cars because by the government standards, you actually have to take delivery of your Tesla before September 30th, not only purchase it. So those Q3 deliveries are likely going to be super high and there might be a surprise announcement as well with regards to a new vehicle. But based on where Tesla is right now and based on the options flow that that I talked about, I think there is an easy path for Tesla to get into the 500s.
On Thursday, we also have unemployment claims. Now on Friday, we have the unemployment rate. I believe this comes out at 8:30 a.m. So, it is expected to be 4.3%. And this one is really important because it has federal funds rate implications. If unemployment starts ticking higher, then we're going to we're going to see the Fed needing to cut at a much more accelerated pace and that might shock the market. So, we'll talk about that. And then we have a bubble update, the state of the stock market bubble currently and we will do technical analysis on the indices. So let's get right into it.
So let's start with BMR. This is Bitmine Immersion Technology. This is the ETH fund that Tom Lee heads. But you can see that there was $135 million in options premium last week. Now let's take a look at the gamma exposure here. Currently we trade at around 50. So, there is a lot of gamma naturally at that $50 strike, but look at where we have gamma exposure next. We have gamma exposure at 60 and a lot of gamma exposure at 66 and none really below 50.
Now, if you watch my last video, I told you that one of my favorite charts was Ethereum because Ethereum right now is had retested the former resistance. This former resistance is the 4K psychological level and we ret we broke out of that and retested it. And if you look at BMNR which is tied to the price of ETH, you can see here on the weekly that we are in a clear weekly trend retesting that gap and I do suspect that from here BMR will start heading towards that $60 level. My midterm price target is actually this 72 level.
And speaking of Ethereum, I also traded Ethereum futures. As I told you in the last video, you can trade Ethereum a number of ways. And yes, there are Ethereum futures on the futures market currently in a long. And I will likely not take this out until Ethereum hits at least 44 or 4500. Looking to gain at least 25K on this position, but currently up almost $8,000 so far. Have not touched this position yet. And that is just on one contract.
The other way that you can trade Ethereum is through ETHU, which is a 2x Ethereum ETF. You can see here that this is a mock trade setup where the stop would be at around 102. And this is again something that that that I showed you guys in my last video. You would have entered at 115 targeting that 168 range in in the midterm.
Now, IN is a very interesting play. So if you guys don't know this is a Bitcoin miner but also they are leveraging their AI cloud expertise and they are offering AI cloud services and IN thought that BMNR's uh premium last week was crazy. IN traded $216 million in options premium. And if we take a look at the gamma exposure here, another very interesting setup here where you do have a lot of gamma exposure at the $50 level. Not surprising at the money gamma exposure, too. And you do have a little bit of gamma exposure below at around 35 and 30. But the most gamma exposure is around that $50 level.
So, like I said, this is more of a double play because it has to do with if if crypto finds a bottom and if Bitcoin finds a bottom, then iron will pop and then obviously the AI play. Uh right now we are obviously in an AI bubble where even we have pre-revenue companies like Olo leveraging the idea of AI or the story of AI and are trading at crazy multiples. To me, that is the part of the AI bubble, right? Nvidia to me is not part of the AI hysteria. Nvidia's is 7% of the S&P 500 earnings. It can justify its valuation, but some of these other plays, and we'll talk about QuantumCape in a second as well, because some of these other plays where they're like, "Oh, yeah, we also now have an AI component, these pre-revenue companies or companies that aren't really making a profit." Those are the ones that that are popping. And I think that with momentum I here can pop and there is a lowrisk play if you keep your stop at around 36 heading towards that $50.
But even from an investing standpoint you could see that this company is actually growing. June of 2020 gross profit was 1.3 million and right now we are at 342 million. Also, this company has never reported a net income until last year, 86.9 million. And if we take a look at its cash from operations, this right here is also very impressive where it was in a negative cash situation before, singledigit million cash situations before, and then in June of 2025 reported a $246 million cash from operation. So it is definitely a growing company and there is it can be a part of your growth portfolio or your growth strategy in your portfolio. But for me this is more of a momentum play because it is really expensive here.
All right let's talk about Tesla real quick. So Tesla has deliveries on Thursday October 2nd I believe. 447,750 expected for Q3. Remember I told you that there is a reason it's expected to come to come at uh 447 but there is some there are some insiders saying that it could come in much higher. So if we take a look at Tesla deliveries last quarter was 384,000 Q1 was 336,000 and if we take a look at quarter 3 of last year we had 462,000 and quarter 3 of the year before 435,000. So, this would be in line with its biggest Q3 quarter deliveries ever. And if it comes in significantly higher than this, then I think that that will just provide the market even more momentum to keep uh to keep allowing Tesla to rip higher.
If you remember that in Q4 of 2024, when there was all of that exuberance around Elon and Trump, the Q4 2024 deliveries came in at 495,570. And that is evidently what took Tesla along with the relationship between Elon and Trump to 490. So obviously Tesla right now is in a major breakout of this pennant. And like I said, it is heading for all-time highs. One thing that is interesting about Tesla is this is the highest weekly close ever, even higher than December of 2024. And aside from all of this gamma exposure near the money, the next gamma exposure up is at around 500. So I think in my mind that Tesla can get to that 500 level pretty soon.
Now if we look at core, coreweave here, this is the moment of truth from a technical standpoint. We broke out of this wedge and are now retesting it. Also, if we pull up the daily moving averages, you can see that it's sitting right now on the 100 day moving average. What's interesting is last week on Friday we started getting millions of dollars of calls but for 2027. So these are out of the money leaps at around the $200 strike price. And on Friday at the close we got a bunch of closing print darkpool orders on coreweave of all sizes.
Now as a company as an investment I gave you guys my thesis on coreweave told you why I thought that bare metal servers did have a specific niche in AI itself. So, I am bullish on the company. We went over its financials as well, but right now I'm looking to see if I can leverage a swing trade here. And off of this level, I think that there is a pretty pretty easy swing trade to try to leverage here with a pretty tight stop at around the 104 level, trying to target that 149 high that we saw in August.
My god, that ETH trade is going crazy right now. Like I said, I'm not I'm not going to take this off until it hits at least 25K minimum.
All right, so now let's go over the state of the stock market real quick and what I call the bubble update. I've been sharing with you guys why valuations are not really a good timing tool and how when we are in a bubble and we are definitely building a bubble here, but in my opinion, we are not at PQ4. Valuations have really been horrible timing tools. Even when valuations have been in the 35 multiples, we have had returns between 30 and 50% on the S&P 500. And we have also had when the S&P 500 was at quote unquote low valuations, we have had negative returns. So to try to time the market based on valuations in my opinion is horrible.
Right now we are in a state where the MAG 7 are really returning historical uh uh historical earnings and we have been projecting earnings to the upside right you can see what's projected for 2026 here from an earnings perspective now like I said these companies these pre-revenue companies not all of these AI companies are going to last some of them are going to die just like what happened in the dotcom boom but we are in my opinion not near peak euphoria yet right we're not seeing this exuberant spending on things such as watches and JPEGs of monkeys like we saw in 2021. I've talked about this before, but in the year 2000, there were articles talking about how we have to do away with the concept of earnings. There were people that were quitting their job just to day trade.com names.
Right now, we're in a space where, yes, a rising tide lifts all boats. And we are seeing some crappy companies or some lowquality companies or let's call them hyperrowth companies. We are seeing them trade at crazy multiples, but we are also seeing companies like Nvidia and Google and Amazon really justify their valuations here. Now, I personally would love a pullback. I I loved it in August. I loved it in September, but we are not going to get it, it seems. And you know, October, we can say October has been a shifty month, and that still could be the case. But I'm going to continue focusing on quality trade setups like the ones that I shared with you as well as quality stocks at good valuations.
There aren't a ton of great opportunities here from a valuation perspective. There are a ton of opportunities from a trading perspective. And I keep giving you guys a mix of opportunities because I know a variety of viewers watch this. Traders watch this. Investors watch this. Traders and investors watch this. So, I try to give you guys a taste of everything because I do everything as well.
But from an investing standpoint, you know, you do have Amazon here. I do think that this right now is undervalued for Amazon's from Amazon standpoint and based on Amazon's historical pricing. Would be awesome to see a pullback on Google, but I think Google is easily can add another trillion to their market cap based on the analysis that I did on their businesses individually. And they do have a Gemini event this week, like I said.
But all of the stocks that I shared with you, whether it was ASML, whether it was Uber, I mean, right now, sure, you can buy them, but certainly we were afforded the opportunity to get these at crazy valuations before. And I will continue to share as much as I can with you guys the opportunities that I see. Like I told you guys about Marll. I thought that that was an asymmetric opportunity that was just lying there for the taking.
So, if you want access to all of my analysis and all the the picks that I'm looking at, all of the stocks that I'm looking at, I try to comb through and analyze stocks every single day to see if there is an opportunity there. And I also go live every single morning at market open and trade day trade futures as well as options. So, if you are interested in those things, come and join us below. Hopefully, I helped with supplying you with a pertinent update as to what I'm looking at in the stock market coming up. Hopefully I gave you some ideas from a trading and investing perspective. Leave it in the comment section below if you have a question about trading or investing or let me know what you are looking at as well and you know whether you are creating a list to be able to buy on the dip and what that list consists of. I'd like to hear from you guys. Subscribe to the channel. Hit that notification bell. Stay safe out there traders. Peace.