Transcription
Okay, esteemed golden viewers, something is happening with gold, something is happening. Uh, let me start here. The Shanghai gold market, uh, a major Chinese exchange, announced that retail investors must close their positions. Uh, frankly, I don't know what they saw, but the overall trend suggests they saw something that would make gold jump. The trading market, you know, we're not afraid of gold going up, we're not afraid of gold going down, but we're afraid of gold suddenly jumping. After October 24th, we have a long holiday. We have a long holiday too. Things will get out of hand. You, the viewers, must manage. If gold is at 7 baht during that period, be careful. I don't know anything, but both America and China are joining forces on October 24th. We are on the short side, waiting for the fifth wave of C. But after the fifth wave of C ends, that wave will be difficult to trade. In reality, because according to theory, it will be the end of a downtrend if it doesn't form a complex pattern. If it forms a simple pattern, it will be the end of a downtrend. >> Thailand Gold Summit 2026, the biggest gold seminar in Thailand, is now available for rerun viewing. >> Most people trade gold, 95%. >> Why are they losing money? >> A crisis period is the best time to convert cash into assets that are decreasing in value. >> You can watch the full rerun on all Main State Stations. Follow for more details on SIP Event. >> Khun Phor, gold in futures has dropped by 100 dollars, and in spot, it's down about 40-50 dollars. What is your view on gold's decline today? >> Okay, actually, with gold, we are already on the short side, and we will continue to be on that side. This gold, we are still waiting to short when it rises, as usual. Regarding gold, okay, since the initial drop, we saw it as the start of a downtrend. But the downtrend has a rather complex pattern. But if we look at it simply, it's A, B, and within C, there are 5 waves: 1, 2, 3, 4. 1, 2, 3, 4 has come up to 4, and there is still one more downtrend leg. So, with gold, we are still on the short side. We are on the short side, waiting for the fifth wave of C. But after the fifth wave of C ends, that wave will be difficult to trade. In reality, because according to theory, it will be the end of a downtrend if it doesn't form a complex pattern. If it forms a simple pattern, it will be the end of a downtrend. Uh, we have been on the short side for a long time. But now it's the end of a wave, so we need to watch closely to see what happens. Khun Gita, do you have a moment? Let's talk about gold for another 3-4 minutes. >> I'd be very happy to, Khun Phor. >> Okay, esteemed viewers, something is happening with gold, something is happening. Uh, let me start here. The Shanghai gold market, uh, a major Chinese exchange, announced that retail investors must close their positions. Close positions. The closing date is June 24th. They are asking to close positions. I must say this is unusual. I must say that the Shanghai Exchange, about a year ago, was determined and ambitious, wanting to be the leader of the global gold trading market last year. But I will say that by forcing closures like this, in 5 years from now, if I'm not being polite, maybe 10 years, in 5 years from now, don't expect to be a leader in gold trading if you force people to close positions. But I believe that the market operators must know this. If you force people to close positions, you cannot be a global market. Because when the price is that high, why are they forcing people to close positions on October 24th? Uh, it's not just China. Chicago in America is the same. But if we talk about Chicago, CME is very sophisticated. They have more tricks. Instead of forcing closures, they extend the time. Instead of Saturday and Sunday, they trade 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, trading continuously. On the same day, October 24th. Uh, frankly, I don't know what they saw, but the overall trend indicates they saw something that would make gold jump. The trading market, you know, we're not afraid of gold going up, we're not afraid of gold going down, but we're afraid of gold suddenly jumping. Uh, if I put it in our language, you know, this is Thai gold, Thai gold. Go Online has IM 137,000, 1500. That's IM. If you viewers want to open 1 contract on Go Online, you need to put 137,550. >> Yes. >> What is that? It's a guarantee. But the point is, if gold moves 1 dollar, and you are right, viewers on Go Online will get 300 baht. If you are wrong, you lose 300 baht. With 137,000, it can support a gold price fluctuation of 400, 485.5 dollars. This means if it jumps more than that, it's difficult. For example, if it jumps 500, if it jumps 500, people who profit initially might think it's good, initially, but those who lose money, it's not just losing money, it's debt. It's debt. The market will sue. The market will sue the debtors to pay. The trading market, tens of thousands of people suing tens of thousands, is not a comfortable matter. This is what the market fears. The market doesn't fear going down, the market doesn't fear going up, the market fears it jumping. I think this is what made China force closures and CME change to 24-hour trading, 7 days a week. So both think that gold might have a sharp jump. But in which direction will it jump? Right now, I guess, I guess it will jump up. Because during the same period, the Bank of China is buying gold, buying more gold than usual. Right now, I'm guessing, but this is a guess. This is a guess. I guess it will jump on the positive side. But all of this, viewers, you must be careful. If you have gold, after October 24th, be careful. Oh, I have to say one more thing. For Thais, it's special. After October 24th, we have a long holiday. We have a long holiday too. Things will get out of hand. You, the viewers, must manage. If gold is at 7 baht during that period, be careful. I don't know anything, but both America and China are joining forces on October 24th. So, let's sell. If we have a lot of gold, think about closing half of the contract worth over a hundred thousand. How to close half? Gold has a single contract. Can you close half? Yes, by using mini gold futures. Uh, yes. Uh, 10 gold, 10 mini gold is 1 big one. Viewers, if you think, hmm, I have gold, I'm not sure, up or down, I want to hold half. Then open half a mini gold contract. If you have 1 contract, open 5 mini gold contracts, and it will help absorb volatility. Uh, something like that. And the yen is moving, America is moving. Will TFX move? Will TFX move? Because we trade 24 hours. We can do it like Chicago. And I don't believe we will be forced to close like China. We have to see which way TFX will move. Uh, yes. I'll tell you in advance, gold will have a period of jumping, so be prepared. But it will be coincidental. For example, if we look at gold technically, there is one more leg down. Right now, it's at 8-24, at 24. Oh, there's time. If it's coincidental, it will be very beautiful. If it goes down first, and then it jumps up, becoming a beautiful chart. It goes down completely, completes A, B, C, jumps up, opens a new uptrend. Oh, a beautiful picture, like unicorns jumping around. But we don't know yet. For now, from here until October 24th, the Chinese side is forced to close. Most Chinese retail investors are on the long side. When they close, it reinforces the view that, okay, for now, let's stay on the short side. But what's different from the 4 or 5 times I've been on the show is that it might be the end of a downtrend. It might be the end of a downtrend. So, if anyone is short and it goes against them, cut it, cut it. Don't hold on for too long. Don't hold on for too long if you are playing short. Because I have recommended the short side many, many times, for many months, I have recommended the short side. But it's about to change to long. But this time, I still want to stay on the short side. I think it's the end of a downtrend. Khun Gita. >> Yes. And where to open a position, and profit targets, Khun Phor, what do you recommend? Okay, yes. It's forming a channel. This channel has many implications. Because this channel, if we consider it as C, C has 5 sub-waves: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. According to theory, one way to end wave C is to cross the 2-4 line. It has crossed the 2-4 line exactly. So it's 1, 2, 3, 4, and then down to 5. And we opened a short at the upper band of this channel. The target is around, around, around the previous low, the previous low. So, we recommend a short entry point around 4,200. If it goes above 4,330, it means it's wrong. Stop Loss. This must be respected well. 4200. If it goes above 4,330, then stop. The downside target is 4,050 and around the previous low at 3,900. For Gold Futures, we see a bounce up and then open a short. Khun Gita. >> What about those who trade physical gold, Khun Phor? What do you recommend for people who buy gold? When there is unusual activity in the futures market, what should traders who accumulate gold do? >> I think it should be okay. It should be okay. Because, uh, of course, according to theory, people who play physical gold, meaning those who can hold for a long time, if they can hold for a long time, it's still okay. Because I think it will jump again. Frankly, I think it will jump, but I don't know in which direction. But if we look at the numbers of the Bank of China buying gold, I still guess it will jump positively. But if we consider it jumping positively, people buying physical gold are fine. There's nothing to worry about. I still see them as another group that will be happy. But paper gold, it's different. Physical gold can be sold. Paper gold is the one that will have headaches. Listen to physical gold. I think if it breaks below 4,000, it's a buying opportunity. There's nothing to worry about. >> In the news, there's talk of attacks, talk of war breaking out, talk of Mr. Trump announcing that the MOU has ended and he won't negotiate with Iran, saying it's a waste of time. In the world of geopolitics, it's heated, and oil prices have surged. But technically, how much can oil prices rise, Khun Phor? >> Okay. Oil, actually, it pulled back to a certain level and bounced up. It's not really strange because it pulled back exactly to the target of the downtrend. But as for the rise, asking if it will rise strongly or not, where do we look? There are important resistance levels. If you know charts, one is that oil has formed a double head pattern, a double head. And there's a shoulder at 84 dollars, 84 dollars. The downtrend, if we draw a Fibonacci retracement, the Fibonacci is also at 84 dollars. That is 84.36 dollars. So, in this oil rally, there will be an important resistance at 84.36 dollars. If it can cross that, it's significant. But if it can't cross, it's also a gap. Let's just say if it crosses 85.75 dollars, if it can cross that, then we should be concerned. If it doesn't cross, it will just be a sideways movement. We'll see what the news says. But in reality, technically, we should wait and see at 85.75 dollars whether it can cross or not. Khun Gita. >> Yes. If it can cross, where will it go next, Khun Phor? >> If it can cross, it will be quite scary because the previous trend was an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows. If it can cross, the chance of it testing 100 dollars is high. To be precise, it's 98 dollars and testing the next level at 113 dollars, which is possible. >> It can cross to the high 90s, breaking 100. >> 98, and then 113. >> Yes. >> So, if we measure by strength, Khun Phor, are there any tools or indicators to measure the strength or the ability to rise that much? Do we look at volume or volatility, or what can we use to measure the strength of this rally? >> Uh, actually, there are. But because it's just, it's just started to rise, it's still a bit too early. Actually. >> Yes. >> What we're talking about is it just started rising at 3 PM today. >> Yes. >> Uh, Khun Gita, Khun Gita said Hong Kong is green, green, what? They closed earlier. It opened at 2 PM. So, today's market, the global market, those who can be green are only of two types. If it's open, it's all red. So, it's just started rising, so it's still hard to say. It's still hard to say. And actually, if you look at today, as I said, America attacked at 3 PM. We're starting to see long wicks. If you look at the candlestick, we're starting to see long wicks at the top. So, if we count from here, but I said the event has just begun. >> Yes. It seems like it might not be strong, but this is fresh. It can still be inaccurate. But the event just happened, and oil didn't form a full candle. It's a candle with a long upper wick. This indicates that there's a tendency that it might not be as strong as the previous time. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to broaden the community of learning in economics, business, and investment. Now we have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe, and you will receive exclusive content and seminars from PR KP and Team Business Tomorrow. Please click subscribe.