Transcription
Hello everybody and welcome into Commodity Culture, where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles, and geopolitics, all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is January 14th, 2026, and I'm thrilled to welcome Gary Savage to the program, a precious metals analyst and the president of the Smart Money Tracker investing newsletter.
"They're done." Those are the words Gary has about the banking cartel suppressing gold and silver prices, as he believes that game is over and we are in a new world where physical metals reign supreme. Gary cautions, however, that we are nearing the final stages of this run in precious metals. And as they start to go absolutely parabolic, the narrative of a monetary reset and a new era for the metals could be a siren's call that will leave most gains wiped out on the rocks when the party ends. All this and so much more.
If you love silver, pick up your "Commodity Culture Stack Silver, Not Fiat" t-shirt, backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Use the link in the description. And now, my friend, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Gary Savage.
Gary Savage, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. The first time I had you on the show, back in August of last year, you said silver would outperform everything, and that certainly has been the case. Incredible performance throughout 2025 and starting off this year with a bang, hitting new all-time highs and now at around $90 an ounce as of the time of this recording. How close are we to triple-digit silver in your view? And what do you make of this recent price action in the silver market?
So, um, I think we could get to $100 silver maybe by the end of the week, although next week's probably more likely. Um, I am pretty much convinced that we're in the final stages of a 26, 27-year bull market. Uh, the first phase of the bull market started in, take your pick, it was '99 or 2001. It double-bottomed at $2.55 gold. Um, that first phase ran up to that top in 2011. Then we had a cyclical bear market for four years, I guess it was. And then we started the second phase of the long-term secular bull market. And that started in, I think it was October of 2015. So we've been in this bull phase now for going on, you know, 11 years. So it's, it's, it's very mature. We are starting to go parabolic. Um, I know there's a lot of people that are saying that, you know, this is just getting started. I don't, I don't think so. Um, I think we're in the final phase where silver catches up. Um, you know, we've discussed this before. Silver kind of, it, you know, messes around and churns and lags, and then at the end of the bull market, or even at the end of an intermediate cycle, it kind of comes on like a freight train, and you get these really big moves. And that's what's happening. And if you, you know, back out and look at like a 20-year chart, you can see the character of the metals market has completely changed. We've broken the suppression, the banking cartel suppression, and and that's adding fuel to the fire. But, um, on those long-term charts, you can see we have just, we're just starting to go parabolic. That is not the sign of a market that's just getting started. That's a sign of a market that's in the ending phase, um, of of a long-term bull market. We're, we're, I, I would say we're in the middle, middle stages of a of a parabolic move, parabolic bubble phase. I, I think we probably got short end, maybe we got six months left. Um, longer, maybe a year, but I don't think we have any longer than that. The, the narrative will get, um, irresistible. You know, there'll be all these calls of, you know, whatever the monetary system is going to change, or the dollar's going to collapse, we're going to hyperinflate. None of that will be true. Um, and then at some point here, retail traders, which I think they're starting to come into the market now, but you'll get a point at which, you know, everybody sees that their neighbor is getting rich and they want to get rich, and then you'll get all the retail traders in. There won't be anybody left to buy. Smart money will will start to see that, hey, this is getting towards the top. They'll start to, um, sell, and, uh, and then the bubble will pop, and you'll get, you know, depending on how far up we go, you'll get anywhere from a 70 to 90% correction. So, we, we could literally in six months to a year, we could go to $500 silver, and then we could go back to $50 silver when the bubble pops.
And in the aftermath of that bubble popping, would you then, would we then be in another sustained bear cycle for precious metals? Would that be a time where it, for years moving forward, once again, we could see silver underperform, um, the broad market? Do, do you see that sort of scenario occurring, or, or do you think that we could perhaps see another bull emerge after the rubble settles?
Um, it probably won't emerge really quickly. When you, when a bubble pops like that, it, it usually takes years to recover, you know, back to the old highs, anyway. Um, now, I will say that Bitcoin has gone through a couple of bubble phases and they, they popped. [snorts] And, you know, you'll get that big 70, 80% correction, but it has come back very quickly. And maybe that's just because central banks are printing money quicker than ever before. So, you know, maybe we don't have to have a 10 or 15 year bear market in the metals. Maybe it only lasts two or three years, and then we, we start another secular bull. So, I'm, I'm going to remain open-minded on that. That might be a possibility. But I, I think people need to try and ignore the narrative. It's, it's going to be like I said, it'll be irresistible that, you know, this is a, this is a new, you know, a new world, a new environment, and metals are never going to come down again. You know, I heard the same thing with tech stocks and housing prices, and that's just what happens during bubbles. You know, human beings in general are very susceptible to groupthink, and if you tell us something, I think the number is about 11 times, if if you hear something 11 times over and over and over, you believe it, no matter how absurd it is, you'll believe it. So that narrative will be repeated. You know, that the dollar's lost 90% of its purchasing power. You know, all the, all the things you generally hear. Uh, but, you know, if you just remain logical and you look at those long-term charts, that's a parabolic move that's underway. And those are ending moves, not beginning moves.
>> And what about the argument that all fiat currencies eventually go to zero? Now, I, I would completely agree with you on the hyperbole that's out there, especially on social media now as silver is soaring. You know, everybody's talking about this is the big collapse of the financial system. People are posting like we should actually be scared as silver stackers because we know the system is coming undone, even though our silver is going up. We, the world is coming undone. You know, we're reaching the end game. A lot of these sorts of, this sort of language is getting thrown around. But it is true that historically all fiat currencies go to zero. Do you just think that the US dollar in particular, and perhaps fiat currencies around the world, in our current economy and the way financial systems are run, have a much longer shelf life than people are anticipating?
>> Well, all empires come to an end eventually. I mean, the Roman Empire collapsed, and of course, the, the Roman currency went away. I suppose the same thing will happen to the United States at some point, but I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. Uh, so, yeah, you're correct. All currencies come to an end, but the dollar is not going to end anytime soon. And, you know, Britain was the, the world's superpower, you know, 100 years ago, and and that ended for them, and the, and the financial markets moved to the United States, but the British pound didn't go away. So, you know, you're, you're correct in in that sense that all currencies do go to an end because all empires go away eventually. Time kills everything at some point, but, you know, the dollar is not, it's not going to hyperinflate and it's not going to go away anytime soon. And I'd say it's probably going to be quite a while before the dollar loses completely loses its reserve currency status. Um, you know, we're, we're, we're getting less and less, but to completely lose it, I think we probably got a long, long time yet.
>> Uh, and you mentioned today already about banking cartel suppression that you believe is being broken. We discussed this last time you were on the show as well. Um, are we entering an era where paper manipulation is simply going away, or do you expect the players, the banking cartel, to redouble their efforts and try to put gold and silver back down?
No, they're done manipulating. It's, it's too dangerous at this point to keep trying. I mean, they may, they may throw a few little interventions in from time to time, to maybe around options expiration or something. Um, they might try it at a big, that big round number of $100, but for the most part, you know, I, I suspect there's no way to know for sure, but I suspect they've lost billions on this. Uh, and that's part of the reason silver is going, and gold as well, has gone parabolic. Um, so it's just become way too dangerous to keep. You, you can't keep doubling down because the buyers are there to, um, to buy because we've got some shortages in the silver market. So there, there is actual demand for the physical silver. So, you know, to keep trying to suppress the paper markets, you're just going to make sure you lose more and more billions. So now we're done with that. Um, other than some very short-term stuff, you don't have to worry about banking cartel suppression anymore.
>> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 307-264-9441 [music] or by email at Ian@archsgo.com. Make sure to tell him, of course, that Commodity Culture sent you. And now, back to the interview. [music]
Well, I want to circle back to the idea of a monetary reset, because you, you mentioned that that isn't going to be happening. You've tweeted about that as well. Now, the people on the other side, the ones driving that narrative, would point to the BRICS and their move towards getting outside of the SWIFT system, potentially using gold to transact between member nations. The chip system that China is implementing, the UN-based payment system that's connecting to a bunch of different countries. People are speculating that that could involve gold. Um, people are talking about potential of gold-backed bonds being issued at some point, uh, by the United States. Are, are these narratives just, have they've gotten too far ahead of themselves in your view? Do you think there's any credence to that sort of thinking? And do you, or do you think that's perhaps something that could happen decades away, if at all?
>> As it pertains to maybe like gold backing of currencies? I, I don't think that's ever going to happen for several reasons. Um, first off, politicians like to be able to print money. So it's just, there's not going to happen for that reason. Also, um, during the period that the currencies like the US was backed by gold, the rate of of innovation and expansion of the economy was rather slow. So the, the money supply has to, um, increase as the economic production of the, of the country increases. So, you know, back in, what was it, 1913, um, when, when we had a, a gold-backed system, we weren't the, you, I think, I think the GDP of the country was, if I'm not mistaken, it's about $500 billion. Well, it's about, what is it, about $43 trillion now. So, you, you can't mine enough gold fast enough to keep up with that production. The money supply has to keep up with the economic expansion of the country. So, that, that's why this is completely false to say that the dollar has lost 90% of its, its value. It has not. The, the job of the Fed is to try and, um, keep the money supply stable, um, based on the, the economic, um, [clears throat] growth of, of the country, of whatever country. And a lot of times, they do a pretty good job. Um, from 1980, we had a huge economic, uh, boom in productivity because we had, we had a new technology come online. We had the personal computer and the internet that produced massive economic growth. The money supply had to expand to, to, um, handle that growth. So, just a quick example that I use is, let's, let's say in 1900, um, the production in the USA of, let's just say the only thing we produced was automobiles, and we produced 10 of them, and the money supply was $100. So it would cost $10 to buy an automobile. Well, now we produce, I don't know, the [clears throat] number, but it's got to be millions of automobiles. You can't, you can't run a country that produces millions of automobiles with only $100 currency units. It's, it's massively deflationary. You would just have depression after depression after depression. People wouldn't get raises. They would get pay cuts. Um, and that's kind of the problem you have with gold. The gold, you can't mine it fast enough to increase the supply of gold to keep up with the economic and the technological expansion in our modern world. You could do that, um, back in the 1800s and 1900s, the, the gold supply could expand because the economic expansion was rather slow, and, and the gold mining was rather slow. But in our modern world, it's just not feasible. So, I seriously doubt we're going to have any kind of gold backing. You know, maybe, maybe there's some kind of a gold bond, but will the government really give you gold when you, when you go to trade it in? I, I don't know. But I think that's all mostly just fear-mongering. I don't, I don't think it's going to happen.
>> Yeah, that's an interesting point that the money supply has to expand as industry expands. Um, something not a lot of people consider. I want to read a quote from a tweet you made that says, "A world of $10,000 gold isn't going to hell on earth any more than a world of $125,000 Bitcoin was." And that's an interesting, uh, thing to mention because a lot of market commentators say something like, "I wouldn't want to live in a world of $10,000 gold." As if geopolitical risk would be extremely high, the monetary system and global economy would be collapsing. And so the least of your worries is holding gold. I think some people believe we'd be in a Mad Max scenario where you're fighting people in the desert for food. So who cares how much gold you have? Um, why do you think that's not the case? That the higher the gold price goes, you know, the the more dangerous the world is. And is there any price level that gold could reach where you would say, "Okay, now I'm a little bit concerned about what's going on."
>> First off, um, parabolic moves, bubble phases are not driven by fundamentals. They're driven by human emotions, by greed. So, I, I'm pretty sure that we are in the, the uncontrollable greed stage of the bull market, where people are just, they're just making a lot of money buying gold and silver. And at some point, you know, you, you get the general public that has no idea what they're doing. All they know is that their neighbor is bragging about how many millions of dollars he's made buying gold and silver, and you want to make millions of dollars, so you buy. And and then you just get a big influx of of unsophisticated mom and pop traders that are just, they're just buying because they know that they're, they're making money buying, and they know that their neighbors and their co-workers have made a lot of money buying. So that, that has nothing at all to do with fundamentals. It, it has to do with greed. Um, you know, these moves start due to fundamentals, but they, they end due to emotions. And so, you could have said the same thing back in 2000. I don't want to live in a world where gold is $4,500. It's $250 bucks. I don't know. The world's not that bad in my opinion. I mean, we got a little bit of inflation, but, um, heck, I bought, I bought a gallon of gasoline in Arizona two weeks ago for $1.86. We haven't got much inflation. [laughter] I think, I think inflation is more or less stabilized now. If, if oil really starts to go, oil is what drives inflation, you know, it's the lifeblood of the world. Uh, when oil goes up 100% or more, uh, that's such a shock to the middle class and the lower class, they stop spending. That's what causes recessions, you know, unless we do something stupid like closing down the world for a virus. But other than that, you know, I'm seeing people wanting to call recessions all the time or a top in the, in the stock market. And these things don't just happen magically for no reason. There's got to be, has to be a catalyst for a bear market. Um, and there has to be a catalyst for a recession. And, and other than, you know, self-sabotage, um, the catalyst has always been, since World War II, when we really became dependent on oil, has always been a spike in the price of oil of 100% or more in a year or less. So, a huge, um, surge in inflation, oil, the price of oil affects everything, has an energy component to it. So, when the price of oil goes up rapidly, the price of your food goes up rapidly, you know, the cost to, to produce the food and transport the food, or any products, you know, everything. At least half the stuff we use, it has oil in it. Um, so, I, I don't see a recession. The advance decline line keeps making new highs. I'm not seeing a top in the stock market. Now, we are going to be due, either later this year or early next year, for a four-year cycle low in the stock market. And usually that has has to do with some kind of [sighs] financial contagion. A lot of times, you know, maybe there's a, some kind of a problem in the banking sector. You know, there's always some trigger for it, and usually part of the trigger is that the, the market has gotten stretched too far above the mean. So, it's, it's wanting to regress back to the mean anyway. And then, you know, you'll get some fundamental reason that'll be the excuse for it to do what it wants to do. So, we, we could have a move back to the, usually it'll drop back to the 200-week moving average. That would be a pretty good move down. It, it would be a, basically what would qualify as a cyclical bear market. It'll be a 20% or more drop. Um, now, when it comes to the stock market, even though I don't think this bull market is over, I think we've got several more years to go. It's still shy, based on the last two bull markets. They were all 20 plus years, and, and basically 20 to 25 times, um, when it was all said and done. So, we're, we're still short of those, um, targets. So, I think we got more to go, but I think this year might be a sideways to stagnant year. And then, at, at some point, I think we'll get that four-year cycle low, either later. The fall is usually a good time for those things. Uh, but we might get it in, in the spring of next year as well. Um, so, I, I don't want to be in the stock market. I don't want to be in energy. I don't want to be in Bitcoin. Pretty sure Bitcoin has started its four-year cycle decline. Um, oil may have bottomed, but I think it's probably going to be stuck churning for a year or more before it really gets some big upward momentum. I might be wrong on that. If the war cycle starts to escalate in Europe, which I'm afraid it will, um, and that, that could be the trigger for oil to, to really get some upward momentum and make a big move. If it does, then there's your, there's your fundamental, um, trigger for a recession. But right now, I'm not seeing it. Minus that, I think energy is probably going to churn for a year or more before it can really get some upward momentum.
And you mentioned you see the war cycle potentially ramping up. Um, what conflicts are you watching right now that you think risk either intensifying or what new conflicts do you think could develop?
Obviously, there's a lot of interesting things on the table. 2026 has started off with quite a bang. Uh, we saw Trump capture the Venezuelan president, Nicholas Maduro. Um, we also have seen intensification of threats towards Iran that could end up the US could end up getting involved at, at any time now. And of course, Greenland now seems to be on the table. Trump, not even hinting, basically stating that the US will have Greenland one way or the other, whether that's through a financial negotiation or whether that's, uh, through just taking it. Um, and then meanwhile, the EU has ramped up their tough talk saying, we're going to defend Greenland. Uh, the war in Russia, Ukraine is still going on. There seems to be no peace in sight there. When we look at this whole picture, what has you most concerned for the rest of this year?
>> Ukraine. I think NATO's, I think NATO will, will at some point they'll do, um, instigate or initiate a false flag event in order to have the excuse to enter the war with Russia. So that, that's the one that concerns me the most. But, you know, with two weeks after the lockdowns began, I predicted that we were going to ignite the inflation cycle and the war cycle. And sure enough, here we are. And as you know, as we've [clears throat] discussed before, politicians never admit a mistake. They always double down, no matter how bad the policy is. And when the double down doesn't work, they triple down and quadruple down. So Europe especially seems determined to to start World War II. And so do I, do I think they're going to come to their senses and make the right decision? No. So, I suspect, I suspect they're going to, at some point, we're going to start World War III, unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong, but like I said, politicians are pretty predictable. Failed policy, double down, spend more money. Problem is, we didn't spend enough money. Problem is, we need to go bigger. If that doesn't work, well, we need to spend more or go bigger still. They've started down this path. I doubt that they're going to be able to change course.
>> Yeah. Uh, definitely potentially dire times ahead. Do you think there's any, that puts any, you know, people like to talk about gold and silver being safe haven assets in times of geopolitical uncertainty. Is that just another narrative in your view, or do you think an increase in the war cycle would, would increase demand for the precious metals as well?
That may be what's driving the middle phase of this, of this parabolic move, is that gold is seeing that the, um, war cycle is going to, um, escalate, and it's the buyers are already coming in. They're, they're buying the rumor, and, um, and then generally what happens is when the, it actually occurs, and that you sell the news, or, or the market starts to see the end of the war months before the, the war ends, and so you get a top, and price starts to move down. And then this is where you catch a lot of people on the slope of hope. They're, they're seeing that the fundamentals are, are, are still there, and they can't, they can't see in the future that, hey, the, the underlying this is the market is seeing the end of the war cycle, and that's why that the top has come, and that's why we're going down. So people keep buying all the way down, and then they end up, this is what most people, almost nobody makes any money off of bubbles. Well, they make a lot of money, they just don't keep it because they get caught on the narrative, and then when the top comes, they can't see that that was the top, and they keep trying to buy all the way down, and, and, you know, bear markets are, are tricky. They, they trap you on the slope of hope. They'll make a big leg down, and it's, at some point, it's down far enough to where you can't sell. You convince yourself, well, I'll sell when it comes back. I'll, I'll sell when I get back to my old highs. And then you'll have a violent bear market rally, which is very convincing, and that convinces you that the, the bull market is back. So you, you hang on. Problem is, is that it doesn't make a higher high. It tops before that, and then it rolls over again, and you're stuck holding again. It's like, well, damn, I should have sold, but I didn't, and now it's too far down. I can't sell now. I got to wait for an, for it to bounce again. And then the same thing happens, and how they drags people all the way down to the bottom, and then somewhere 70 or 80 or 90% down from the top, that's the point at which people have lost everything, and they panic sell, and then that, that's the point where there are no more sellers, and that's the end of the, the bear market, and from there, the only direction to go is up.
And when it comes to the market front-running geopolitical events such as war and conflict, um, I wonder if you could speculate for us. Is that because there's insiders with tremendous amounts of wealth who know what is going to happen next behind the scenes, whether that's central planners, people who are, uh, connected to or part of governments, um, the, the people pulling the levers of power behind the curtains? Is this just massive amounts of wealth that already knows what's going to happen next? And so they make a big bet, and, and, and that could be one of the reasons why markets move in advance of events like that.
>> Well, anybody that has common sense knows how politicians act. So, you know, I'm, I'm only moderately wealthy, and I know what politicians do. You know, I would say, you know, quite a few people understand politicians, and so they understand that they're just not going to, um, stop this war cycle. Probably they're going to escalate. So, I, I would say there's lots and lots of people, just like me, that un, they see what's coming, and so they're, they're buying. And then, you know, in, in our case, we can just see that this is turning into a parabolic move, and this is where you make a lot of money really quick. So you want to adapt your trading strategies are a little different during this, this kind of phase. This is the one period in time where you can use leverage, because you, you have a very strongly trending market. Leverage really only works in strongly trending markets. Um, and this is one of the very rare periods where that is happening. So, um, it's a good time to use leverage, but it's also, at some point, you've got to be able to control greed and sell, and just be happy with, you know, with the money you made, and not worry. Generally, what happens is people will, will be happy, and they'll sell, and then the market will keep going up, because you always sell a little early. You either sell a little early or a little late. There's no, no way to time it perfectly at the end. So you, you just got to decide whether you want to be a little early or a little late. And mostly, what happens is people usually start off there a little early, and then, you know, they're, they're happy with their gains. They've made, you know, literally millions. Most of the people in the SMT have made millions now. Um, and they're, they're happy with their gains, and they sell. And then it goes up another 10, 20%, and now all of a sudden, they're not happy with their gains anymore. Now they need more. It's not just bankers that are greedy. Everybody is greedy. And so they can't resist that urge. I got to get back in and make a little bit more. Even though they probably got enough for two lifetimes, three lifetimes now, they don't need anymore. Uh, they get back in, and then at some point, you know, they'll, they'll get scared, and they'll, they'll sell again. It's like, "All right, now I've made enough." And then it keeps going up. Oh, I need a little more. And then they get caught. They get caught at the top, and they, they ride that first wave down, and then they, they're caught on that slope of hope, and then that scenario where I got to hold on till I get back to where I was starts, and they lose it all. And this, this is why the vast majority of people, they make a lot of money during a bubble phase, and then they lose it all because they can't control greed, and they can't just be happy with their gains and get out at the top and go looking for something else that's undervalued.
>> Well, that brings us to the question of knowing when to sell because, as you mentioned, either you're going to be early or you're going to be late, um, one way or the other. And we've discussed this on the show before, but just wanted to get some clarity. What are the signs you're looking for that we're coming to the top of the bubble phase in precious metals? Are there both fundamental and technical indicators that you're looking out for? And could you break those down for us, if so?
>> Um, well, the fundamentals will be hidden underneath the, the market. You won't really be able to see them as a retail trader. You know, maybe if you're a hedge fund with a lot of money to, to buy influence and, you know, you're, you, you've got, um, inside track to peace talks that are going on behind the scenes, that you know, you, you might have that. So, fundamentals probably you're not going to be able to, to see. But, um, you can watch the gold silver ratio. As I've said, silver comes on like a freight train at the end of the, of a bull market. So that gold to silver ratio will start to collapse, which is what it's doing right now. At the top, it was 100 to 1. I think it's 50-something to 1 now. And, and it's falling rapidly. And that's because silver's doing what it does at the end of a bull market. It's, it's, uh, catching up very rapidly. I suspect the top is going to come somewhere between 20 to 1 to 30 to 1. When you see the gold, silver, gold silver ratio somewhere in that zone, 20 to 1 to 31 to 1, 30 to 1, you're probably close enough. You probably made enough money to where you can be happy for the rest of your life. And that's the point at which you just take profits and you don't, you don't even look at the market anymore. You're not tempted to, to try and get back in and make just a little bit more. At that point, you should be looking for something that's, um, extremely undervalued. Um, maybe that's the stock market at the bottom of a, you know, bad cyclical bear market. Maybe it's the dollar. Maybe the dollar has gone down for, you know, the dollar is in a secular bear market right now. At some point, the dollar is going to get too cheap, and you, you'll need to buy dollars. Um, maybe it'll be oil, maybe it'll be Bitcoin. Bitcoin, like I said, it's, it's in the declining phase of its four-year cycle low. Probably has about a year to go. Um, if gold has a year to go to the upside, maybe the trade will be to sell your gold and silver and buy Bitcoin. I'm just speculating. I don't know for sure, but, um, when it gets to the point where the gold silver ratio is somewhere in that range, 20 or 30 to 1, and you want to sell your gold and silver, and I would sell everything. I would sell my physical because you don't know how long the bear market's going to last. The last one lasted 20 plus years. I don't, I don't have 20 plus years to wait. Um, and, you know, you, you need to sell everything, including your physical, and then just, you know, you can either just be happy with your gains and, and enjoy the rest of your life, or if you want to keep investing, then you want to look for something that's undervalued. And something that nobody wants, everybody is convinced is going to go down forever. Um, and that, that's probably where you want to put your money.
You mentioned recently on X that you think silver itself will outperform silver miners in the long run. Now, recent price action from the miners has certainly not gone the way most would have expected, with silver going ballistic as it is. You know, the, the SIL ETF, by the time we closed out 2025, had barely outperformed silver. Really not what people are expecting when it comes to the, the silver mining, uh, sector. You also wrote that, you know, a lot of these mining companies are not very good places to put your capital. Could you walk us through why that is and, and why ultimately you think that, that the metal is better to go with than the miners?
>> Well, part of it is is that the miners have already outperformed. They, along with gold, they went crazy last year. Huge moves in the miners. So to expect that to continue is maybe a little bit unrealistic. I mean, they're still going to go up, but, um, I, it's silver's turn to catch up. We're in that final phase of, of the bull market, and silver is, is the freight train right now going crazy. So I don't think anything is going to keep up with, um, silver during this phase of the bull market. Um, generally speaking, I don't like to invest in individual miners for, for whatever reason. And retail traders, it's like, it's like shorting and, in, mining stocks. It's like a moth to the flame. Retail traders love mining stocks, and they love to short. And both of those are not very good strategies for retail traders. Those are strategies for hedge funds that have hundreds of analysts, and they can find the, the companies that are, you know, going to go bankrupt, that are sick, that are, you know, trying to hide stuff in their, in their, um, quarterly statements. And, you know, those are the, that's how you make money shorting. You got huge, um, analysts, you know, rooms of analysts analyzing companies, uh, or analyzing, um, mining stocks. And even if you got a good stock, it's no guarantee that the market's going to reward you. The market may decide it wants to reward another crappy little company over here because it thinks that this, this company has a narrative that is going to play out. And so maybe you've got a really good company, um, but the market just doesn't reward you for it. So I just don't do either one of those two things. I don't short. Uh, they're both, they're great ways to get people to subscribe to your newsletter. You know, if you're, um, promoting that you're picking junior miners that are going to go up a thousand times, or, you know, you, you play both sides of the market. I, in my opinion, these people are somewhat grifters. Uh, these are, these are just not strategies that are very good for retail traders. Neither one. Markets go down differently than they go up. The profit on the short side is cap. Most you can make is 100%. Um, so shorting is just not a good idea for retail traders. And I don't think picking mining stocks is a great idea. I think if you, if you want to trade miners, just buy GDX or GDXJ. Um, when it's all said and done, you know, you, you may, I, I see people that have 50 mining stocks. I mean, Jesus, how in the world do you manage that? When it's all said and done, you're going to have some of those things that are crappy that never produced an ounce of gold, and that they go to zero. And you'll have some that are huge winners, and, and all in all, when it's all said and done, you're, you're, you know, 100 mining stocks probably are going to return about the same as GDX. So, you could have placed one trade instead of a 100 trades, and probably done the same thing when it's all said and done at the, at the end of the bull market. And either way, you're going to make plenty of money in GDX. It's not like, you know, you're not going to make any money. You're going to make plenty of money without all the headaches. So, uh, when I do trade mining stocks, that's what I do. I just trade the ETFs like GDX or GDXJ. I don't get into, you know, I just be honest. You know, if, if you're looking for somebody to pick a bunch of junior miners for you, I'm not the person. And if you're looking for somebody to, to tell you how to short the market, I'm not the person. I'm not going to do that. It's not a great way for retail traders to, to make money. It's a great way for retail traders to lose money, but I would prefer my subscribers make money.
>> Yeah, I'm completely with you on the ETF side of things. It's very difficult to pick individual mining stocks. There's so much to take into account, and like you said, even if you do find a company that looks fantastic, it doesn't mean that the market's going to reward you for making that selection. I, I want to end now by shifting to politics in the US. In one of your tweets, you wrote, "Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, AOC, Mdani, I don't think these people are stupid. They know socialism doesn't work. They also know that under socialism, corruption runs rampant. And the people that profit are those in the government. They don't care about the people. They care about amassing wealth for themselves." I think that's absolutely the case. You hit the nail on the head. I would personally extend the part about not caring about people and amassing wealth to the entire political class, but giving handouts seems to be the default mode a lot of politicians go into when election time rolls around. Do you think people are waking up to this game? Because it really does seem like whether it's bots on on X or, I, I don't know who these people are, it seems like there's a lot of support for these ideas. What, what are your thoughts there?
>> Well, there's, there's, you know, plenty of people that understand that socialism just does not work. It kills innovation. And, um, you know, if, if your neighbor can sit on the couch playing video games and eating Twinkies all day and get the same thing as you, where is your, um, motivation to go out and, and bust your ass? You have none. Hell, I might as well just sit on the couch and eat Twinkies, too. And pretty soon, you got everybody sitting on the couch eating Twinkies, nobody's producing. That's the problem with socialism. Plenty of people understand that. Um, I guarantee you every one of those politicians understands that. But there are a lot of people that are just, they're just stupid, or they've been brainwashed by the education system, and it appeals to their sense of equality, you know, to these, and I've said this many times, envy. It's the most destructive human emotion. It's what's ended civilization after civilization. But there, there, it's a very easy way to get votes by making the people in the middle class and the lower class envious of people that have done better or have more, or make them outrage, outraged at that inequality. So instead of trying to, you know, motivate people to, to do the same. So, like, you know, if Michael Jordan was your idol, you're not envious of him and think that he should, you know, be forced to strap a 50 lb weight on his back so he's equal with everybody else. You want to, you want to train hard. You want to try and be like him. For some reason, when it comes to the financial markets, it's not the, it doesn't work that way. Um, people want to strap that 50 pound weight on the back of Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos and, you know, the, the people that have massively succeeded in life, instead of trying to, you know, emulate them. You, and the vast majority are not going to be able to attain that kind of success. But you can improve your, your condition in life if you, um, work hard, strive hard. And of course, there are always going to be some exceptions. You know, somebody that worked hard can get a bad knock in life. You could get cancer and die young. You know, the, the fastest zebra can still get caught by the lion, even though he's got the best genetics. So the world is not fair, but we can't make it fair by unleashing envy and outrage in the middle class and lower class. And our education system just teaches this crap to the kids nowadays. So they're, you know, young people are just very easy to, you know, the, the, the 11 times rule. You know, you tell people 11 times socialism is good, people believe it. And so they vote for these people. And the, and the problem is, you can, you can vote yourself into socialism, but you can't vote yourself out of it. And, um, you know, just the history is just pretty clear on this. It just doesn't work. But it's so seductive that politicians, especially on the left, you know, it's more on the left, at least during this period of history, it's more on the left. Maybe, you know, in 20 years, maybe it'll be on the right, but, but in this particular time zone, it's on the left. They, they want to push the socialism because they, you know, it's very seductive. Um, most of the younger people are very susceptible to it. Most of the highly educated people that have gone through the education system are very susceptible to it. People that are more, um, empathic, you know, that want to feel for the less fortunate, are very susceptible to it. But that's just not the way the world works. The, the world works is that, you know, success is hard. Um, you know, you gotta, you got to endure pain to gain, and that's the real way the world works. The real, the world doesn't work on, you know, being lazy and taking from others, because eventually the others, they'll just leave, or eventually the, the people with money run out of money, and then you have to start working your way down the food chain until eventually everybody's poor and miserable, and that's, that's the end, you know, that's the end result of socialism every time it's been tried in history.
>> Well, Gary, this has been a fantastic conversation. Tell us about the Smart Money Tracker. Are you, are you accepting, um, applications right now? And anywhere else you want to direct people online, feel free.
>> Uh, so I am accepting yearly subscriptions. Um, I don't do monthly anymore. I don't want people that are going to come in and if they don't make money the first week, they get upset and cancel. If you give me a year, I'm going to make you money. I'm going to make you a lot of money because we're in that final phase of the, of the bull market. Um, couple of things you should probably understand. Um, the yearly subscription is $950 bucks. So, if you don't have at least $50,000 to invest, and a h, $100,000 would be better, it's probably not going to be cost-effective for you. I, I would suggest maybe you don't do it. Um, you're going to have to be able to be patient. I don't get sidetracked into other markets right now. I'm, I'm solely focused on this final phase of the bull market and metals. So when it's time for metals to correct, we don't go wandering off into uranium markets or the stock market or Bitcoin or something. We just sit on our hands and twiddle our thumbs until, um, we're ready for the, the next leg up. Um, so you're going to have to have patience. Um, when I, when I, and I also, when I, you know, tell you to sell, you know, it's almost always going to be early. I want to get out into a rising market, not a declining market. I use leverage. Um, I, I'm going to want you to put 80% of your investable capital into physical gold and silver. That we won't touch. That we will sell when we see that 20 to 30 to 1 gold to silver ratio. But that's your insurance. That's your protection. We will trade the other 20% with leverage. So, um, you probably should be approved for option trading. That's my preferred method for leverage. I don't really like, I mean, you could do it in futures. You could do it in, um, leveraged ETFs, but I don't like getting margin calls. So, I don't like futures that much. And I, and the, um, leveraged ETFs have some decay during periods of either stagnation going sideways or if they're going backwards, and they have a lot of decay, and, um, and you can't make it back. Whereas say, a, a strike price on an option, let's say your strike price is 75, and you go, you know, they've got time decay, but once you get back above 75, you're, you're back in the money, no matter whether you've had some time decay or not. And if you go to 90, then you're going to make money on it. So, I prefer options over the leverage ETF. So, understand that you can trade either one of those if you want. It'll be the same buy and sell signals, but really, you should probably be approved for option trading, and you should understand options, you know, fairly well. I've got some option tutorials that I'm going to send you when you, when you join, so you can get familiar with it. Um, let me think if I'm missing anything. You got to be able to control greed. If you can't control greed, if you're one of these people that just always has to catch that last penny, you better learn how to control greed fairly quickly, because at some point here, we're going to get the top of the bull market. And if you don't, you're going to, you'll lose everything. So, if, if that's something you got a real problem with, you, you better learn how to do it quick. If you can't learn how to do it, probably not going to do you any good to be in the, in the SMT. I, I'll just make you a lot of money, and then you'll just lose it all anyway. So, um, I think that's it. I'll have the, the SMT open last year. I, I left it open till the end of March. I'll do the same thing this year. Um, and at that point, then I'll close it for the rest of the year, just like I did last year. So, right now, you can still join, and you'll have to March. After that, the SMT will be closed. And haven't yet decided when we get to the top of the bubble. I kind of think I'm going to retire. But if I, I do see something I think is worth investing in, maybe I'll, maybe I'll go a few more years. But, uh, right now, leaning more towards retiring when I think the, the bubble has topped.
>> Well, I'm going to put a link in the description to the Smart Money Tracker website where people can sign up. I'll also put a link to your X account. I recommend people follow you there because you post a lot of great information. Gary, once again, fantastic conversation and thank you so much for coming on the show.
>> Thanks for the invitation, Jesse. Thank you for joining us today. This episode is brought to you by Ark Silver Gold Osmium. They have some great specials on silver bullion products. They are on your screen right now. These are while supplies last and subject to change. So, be sure to reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 307-264-9441 or by email at Ian@archsGgo.com and make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. And pick up your "Stack Silver, Not Fiat" t-shirt available in the Commodity Culture shop using the link in the description below. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.