Transcription
Good morning, everybody. It's Mike. It is Monday, the 20th of January. This is your week ahead video. I hope you guys are having a great three-day weekend. It is Martin Luther King Day—happy Martin Luther King Day! It's also inauguration day. President Trump will be taking his oath in about a little over an hour. Here we are, coming up on the 11 o'clock hour.
From an economic perspective, we don't have much going on here at all this week. In fact, it's extremely quiet here. Other than Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday and inflation expectations, there's nothing here that's going to move us. It is the Fed blackout. That said, we do have earnings.
Tomorrow morning, before the open, we'll get Schwab and 3M in Key Bank. I'll take a look at Schwab after the close. I'll be staying late with you. We have Netflix right on the close; they're always at four o'clock, followed by United. You got Seagate in there. Then, Wednesday morning, Procter and Gamble, Abbott, Johnson & Johnson, Halliburton, GE, Verona, and Alli. You got a lot of different types of companies reporting here—just not a big tech week.
Alcoa—we start getting a look at steel names, STLD, and metals and materials. There’s GE on Thursday morning with American Airlines, Texas Instruments, and CSX, the rail. On Thursday night and Friday morning, we get Verizon and American Express. So, we're going to have a little bit of a busy week here.
So, let's jump into some stuff and see what's going on here. Currently, futures are open. The ES is trading up—a nice little move up, just off the highs a little bit here. But overall, it's trading fairly well, trying to push back up. There's your all-time high of 61,637.5, which is really just not that far as we've taken out this downtrend.
The NQ is very similar, pushing up, broke the downtrend. Now we'll see if we can move. Crude is coming in; we like seeing that. Bonds are holding this move up; got to break that 21-day. Now, gold is up off the lows—not doing much. Bitcoin is raging here; we hit a new all-time high of 110,000. We're trading around 107.
And, you know, again, Trump says he is the crypto president. If you're not paying attention, on Friday, I don't even know the legality of this, although I'm sure it's legal. He released a Trump meme coin, and it went from pennies to 50-something dollars, making him billions of dollars in a day. You know, if people want to pay for this and do it, that's up to them. I would be very careful playing with that at this point, up all that much. We'll keep an eye on Bitcoin names because it looks good.
The VIX was beaten back down last week. Do we want to come back down here and put in a 14 or 13, 12 handle? We would love to see that. HYG is off the lows, holding it better than the markets—not leading at the moment. The transports are still doing pretty good. The dollar remains sticky; it still remains pretty damn strong.
Unfortunately, from a sentiment perspective, you look at what's going on—high number of stocks making highs versus lows on the NASDAQ: plus 100 versus negative 80. So, we're on the right side of things there. Finally, on the S&P 500, we are already there: plus 82 versus 5. We're looking fabulous.
Put/call—look at this flush. So, everybody went in bullish here on Friday afternoon, is what that's saying. What that means is we have big-time over-bullish sentiment that might get flushed. So, we'll see how we handle the open tomorrow. We'll see what we get.
Breadth is leading back up on the NASDAQ as well as the New York Stock Exchange. The advanced decline lines all moved up nicely on Friday, and your oscillators are plus 161 on the New York Stock Exchange. We are a little bit overbought, but not bad. It's 105—same thing on the NASDAQ.
So, we look at the S&P 500 as we go into this week. What can we do, right? We took this one downtrend. The next downtrend is up here, a little bit above 600. So, if 600 clears, you got to get above like 601.70. Above that, and then 609 is the all-time high. I wouldn't be surprised if the market went up and got that ahead of, you know, as Trump becomes president.
We'll see what he does. Remember, he is going to sign executive orders today. Rumors are that he's going to sign hundreds of executive orders today. I want to think about that. We'll see the market reaction, if there is any at all, at this point and anything to do with it.
We'll look for a move up. If we cannot hold and we come back down, you have a gap to fill back down to the 21-day and your 8-day, which are coming up, and they still haven't crossed positive. So, we're still in the process of getting this momentum back.
But overall, this pullback feels like it's over here as we've made—now we broke this series of lower highs on the S&P 500. QES is also breaking the downtrend, though not quite as strong. But also starting to break this series—hasn't quite done it yet. It has to get above here to break this series of lower highs.
The IWM overall remains weak, but if it wants to run, the 50-day is in play. Financials have had a huge move. It would have been bigger, but the insurers are weighing on the banks. That said, the banks here, maybe they run. We saw them do this the first time he was elected; they just kept going.
It's a very hard chase here, but Goldman Sachs is at new all-time highs, JP Morgan is at new all-time highs, Morgan Stanley is at new all-time highs, Citigroup, for all intents and purposes, is at all-time highs. It's never getting anywhere back to where it was before 2008, the financial crisis and all that stuff. Wells Fargo is strong, right? They all look very good.
PayPal, I would keep an eye on next week for a break at 93.66. That one's looking pretty good here. Going to crypto coin, you know, watch for a pop on this one above 300, then a move to 320, and then 340. MSTR, you know, if crypto is strong, it breaks above this 300-400 level, which we're currently sitting right at.
You can see here you have kind of a resistance area up here from, oh, let's call it 425 up to—we'll go right here because there's a couple there—441 area. So, we'll keep an eye on that tomorrow. Still long a couple of those Riot calls; we'll see how that plays out.
Overall, not trading particularly well. Hood, by the way, in coin quickly added—Trump meme coin, so they'll probably get a pop off of that on the open. See how they respond and how they deal with it.
What else, guys? Going on out there, CABA is interesting to me here. It came in, it kissed the gap, and it bounced. If it can hold the 21-day move, it might have a move to the 50-day. Everything else out there is kind of meh.
So, we'll go to big-cap tech. Meta needs to break 630. TikTok is back; we'll see how it reacts. TikTok has already been turned back on ahead before Trump can even come into office. This felt like a lot of games that were played here to make Trump look good.
I'm not trying to be negative about him; it just felt like that was done purposely by the company to prop him up and make him look like the savior of TikTok. I'm saying he had anything to do with it; I think the company did this on purpose. So, you know, we'll see how that responds.
I don't think Meta's going anywhere, but the 50-day support is at 595, and 630 is the level to clear. What else we got? We got Google—really pretty chart here. I like this over 198 and then over 200.
Amazon—we're going to redraw this. Why? Because what happened? It changed. Let's just take it out. Okay, you know, okay, God, Toss is being difficult. You know what? Just delete it. Holy crap on a stick!
All right, so we're going to redraw because now it's moved. Right? So now we have a new downtrend established here, and we take that out on Amazon. We talked Meta, we did Amazon, we did Google. The SMH is here trying to push up that gap. If they want to wake up, there's a name that can push them.
ARM is sitting here at a downtrend, and if this one wants to wake up, right? Looking for a couple of touches here. Roughly, you have a downtrend sitting in here. We could break out. ARM could be in play this week; we'll keep an eye on ARM.
AMD, I like it over the 21-day, and then it can get into that gap. So, we'll keep an eye on that one. Nvidia is still on this channel; it needs to clear the 50-day up here at the 140 level, so keep that in mind.
Otherwise, you know, it keeps holding this 127 area. Still keep hanging in there. MRVL is looking very nice here. A break above 126.15 is an all-time high. In AVGO, I still like it above 240.
Some software names—Oracle, we'll keep an eye on this week. Nice little bounce here; it has to get above the 21-day and that 165 area. Adobe has bounced as well, and it has room to get to the 21-day and fill this little gap back here to the 440 area.
So, with that said, I'm going to wish you guys a wonderful day. Enjoy your day off, enjoy the inauguration if you're watching it, and I'll catch you guys live early in the AM. Let's get at it; we have a four-day week ahead!