Most Are Misreading This Bitcoin Cycle

Heat. Heat. CTM. What's going on everyone? I hope you're well and doing great on this Thursday as we get ready to do what we do best. Put the work in. Make sure that we have our awareness about us. Make sure that we are able to take in all new information day by day and stay on the right side. Macro and TA for fun. Mechanical edge is where it's at. You see Ethereum here continuing its upward move, leading the market now. And then you see, by the way, here we go. Looking for on on the weekly here potentially here getting ready on the news that uh Trump has honed in on a potential new Fed chair candidate, Christopher Waller. We'll take a look at that in just a moment. Markets since equity markets since that hit the wire have kind of topped on today's session so far. But it seems that Bitcoin and crypto are liking the fact that Fed funds looks like that they are headed lower.

If you just jump back over here and we just peek at what's happening into the end of the year, you see that right now markets are pricing in pretty strongly two and a potential third cut. Now, this is all variable and I have to say, ahead of the next uh Fed meeting in September, we have two more data points for inflation. We have obviously a further jobs number, uh non-farm payroll first Friday of next month, and this may or may not change. You know, I I can't make a I can't make a this is what the market's pricing in right now. Is it correct? Likely not. We have a lot of data coming ahead of the meeting. A lot of people think that now there might be the shadow Fed is what Waller says more important than what than what uh Powell says. I don't know about any of that. Uh it seems like a lot of Hoopla. Powell right now is the one running the show. There's something I just wanted to check out with you. Ready? Uh like and and obviously the the main focus of today's session, and it's going to be great. We're going to be talking about Bitcoin cycle update. Most are misreading the cycle, and we're going to talk about potentially where they're wrong. There are so many dependent nuances to all of this that we have to show up each and every day and put the work in. Boom. Boom. Boom. All right. All right. X Ethere uh 2.0, you know, just chasing up top over here just now. Interesting to see the side by side. This is the the only question that matters for me for for the near term: whether or not they're cutting into a recession or normalization. This is and you know, I was thinking about this one. I I don't even can't go there. You know, we have to watch the data obviously, and we've been looking and watching. I'm just gonna give you a heads up and, you know, fast forward a a few weeks ago, we were looking at the current episode, and you can see this is the soft data and the hard data, and generally speaking, generally speaking, 40 days later is when you've seen the average event-driven recession and a deterioration of the hard data. And true enough, I mean, we have seen a deterioration of the data. No question about it. Was weird. Janet Yellen, former Fed chair, former US Treasury Secretary, out enjoying Aspen, probably doing some mushrooms, and yesterday she was commenting on on Fed policy. I don't I don't remember another time. I'm sure there there may have been. But I just don't remember another time when you have a a former Fed chair commenting on current policy. I've seen them talk about mistakes that were made. I've think I've heard them talk about in during their own tenure, but never. So, is Janet Yellen now the new shadow chair? H anyway, um 401k not just for crypto. This is huge news for crypto, right? Also real estate, and yes, that is that is big news. Do you think that's what that's what Bitcoin and crypto are moving off of? Or do you think that because Bitcoin and crypto were a little slower compared to the the relentless roll of the NASDAQ yesterday and overnight, and no doubt that is big news, and that opens up the door for especially for CTM. I mean, because what do I what do I mean by that? Well, let's just jump over and now I find I found the the theme of today's session, and and that's that's is the four the the four-year cycle Bitcoin cycle update, I should say, and it is just making sure we hone in with what awareness we have today, but at the same time, uh, I just meant the flow of where we're going, weaving in and out. Um, you know, we have the ability here in in equity markets to trade things like the spot ETF, and we have things like the ability to trade Micro Strategy. By the way, did you see what is developing over here on Micro Strategy? Quick update. Triple Q continuing to hold right now. We got some some room over here. 34% into profit. You could see uh Nvidia is ready to lock in if need be over here. And 26% into profit, and the new once again IBIT trade entering the market. But I want to just This is FNGU. We have the ST1 and CTM filters keeping us out, and it looks like potentially rightfully so. Well played over here as it didn't chase markets right now, a little bit on the back foot ever since the Waller announcement, and I want to get back into something hit on that. So I hope that name comes up again. But here on Micro Strategy, you can see that we have a trend line break. We're waiting on ST2 and CTM 2.0. You know, we have not yet crossed the the the zero line over here. So, we're we we potentially are late to a discretionary entry. That's what I'm watching right now. Now, jump back over here and you could see that we are right now into what we're into resistance. Interesting development. And interesting development for two reasons. Just to to each and every day, just like throwing those little discretionary nuggets. I got one on the NASDAQ I'm going to share with you in a moment, too. And I I love this one. I was thinking about about this one, and and you all when you see it, you're going to be like, this this might be the the CTM setup. So, please, we I you know what I I think that potentially up until this cycle, this cycle they're having no matter no longer matters, right? And we saw price make an all-time high prior to the having, not after the having. Uh, usually it's after the having of the miners' reward. It sends a supply shock into the the the protocol. And you see roughly six months after Bitcoin able to make a new to I'm a high because of the supply demand dynamics. That wasn't the case this time. It was the adoption, the the spot ETFs opening up. It was adoption taking place, inflows that caused price to make an all-time high ahead of the having. And what's interesting though, up until this cycle, if when if like Plan B's model, right, the stock-to-flow model, I think it would have actually turned out to have been a lot more accurate if it weren't for the like massive amount of altcoins that were, you know, sent into the ecosystem that took away a lot of demand for Bitcoin. Now, that's what happened. It doesn't matter. And when I say it doesn't matter, I mean, if Bitcoin is the apex predator, then Bitcoin wins. And even if there is, you know, several years of altcoin madness. Back in 2017, it was who's going to be the next Bitcoin? Who's going to be the next Bitcoin? And, you know, obviously that everyone knows today. Well, there is no next bit Bitcoin. Bitcoin is Bitcoin. There, you know, there is no second best. And if it weren't for, I believe the the advent of of altcoins that that took away a lot of liquidity from Bitcoin. In a perfect world, if altcoins didn't exist and only Bitcoin existed up until this current cycle, I think the stock-to-flow would have been a lot more accurate. I think it's hard to argue with that. And I and I think that regardless of it being a very flawed model, I think it helped uh onboard a lot of people onto Bitcoin. So, ooh, look what's we're seeing a rejection. So, this line that I was looking at yesterday, the structural line, you could see the the test into the test into it broke above. So, I guess we'll continue monitor that. Maybe maybe we could find a little bit of support over here. But the yellow line, the sell impulse, our first warning sign of this trend uh weakening has been retested now twice. We still need to get neutral above there to negate that breakdown. If we break the red line, then I'm expecting a leg down. I hope we we hold somewhere around the yellow. If we don't, this becomes a legit 15% uh pullback, and we this is this is a it's not the most important line in Bitcoin or anything close to that, and it wouldn't be a technical breakdown, but it would likely mean if we were to break down from there that you you know, the extent of the drawdown is going to be longer and uh deeper. That's it. We'll just leave it there right now. Jumping back over and I wanted to talk so I could, you know, I always I always backend everything, right? Uh so this is so important to us, and we've seen over the last week the sincere deterioration of the data. It's going to matter what happens with CPI numbers next week, and then jobs number coming after a couple of weeks, and then back to the ahead of ahead of the September meeting. And if those numbers come in strong, not not hot, but but well, at that point in time, I don't think that they're going to cut in September. That's I I that seem the market's going against me. Probability suggests that not only is is September cut in uh two to three cuts into the end of the year. And it's what happens if the data continues to deteriorate though, and are they cutting into a recession? And if they are, that's bad new be bad news bears, and it and it might be, and we might see further pressure. However, I have a feeling, this is my own belief, that I was thinking earlier that likely if we were to see something like that to play out, it would be one of those like one and done, like a quick event. And and not to say that there are not hard times ahead, but I do believe by, you know, I mean, Trump gave us the the last week the the belief. His market timing is pretty good. It is pretty good. Uh 2018 December buy, that was the bottom, that was the exact bottom of the day. April 2025 buy, that was the exact bottom, or or it was it was a day or two after the bottom. Uh very, very good timing. He said roughly five months he expects all of this the the maneuvers they're doing to lead to to growth, and uh, you know, I'm on I'm on that train. I'm a little concerned about navigating this current period because I do believe that it the data suggests it significantly matters whether or not they're cutting into uh normalization and/or recession. I don't want to get caught off guard by my own bias, and I have a bias right here. So, I'm going to make sure that I use TA ultimately to stay on the right side. And I do think that this time is different from this aspect over here, right? And Lynn's like, you know, look, is this time different? When deciding is this time different or not, it's important to have the right baseline to compare. And me you that data, the majority of that data comes from a period in time where we were seeing monetary policy being the driving force, and there was this other period. So, is it different? No, it's not different. We're in much of the same as we were back in the past, now with fiscal dominance becoming the primary driver. And that is the one piece that makes this all hard from the recent top. Let's do it. So, I think what you're looking at and lining up, and so for my eyes, I don't know if it's this or like this. So, what's interesting about about that, and I'm gonna I'm gonna say I feel I feel I feel dude, what's up everyone? I hope you're well. Summer session's here upon us, and obviously that getting a breaking depending on when it broke above, right? I want to get above this trend line over here, the sell impulse, to have us go neutral. And we've been watching that talk, and it came into it's resistance again today. And that's kind it's just kind of neat. Not because we hit resistance. I don't want to hit resistance. Uh, I'm in favor of us not hitting resistance. What's neat about it is that it occurred like TA is beautiful. That's all I could say. And if we break, you know, figure out like, you know, into the weekend, and we break above this line here, and we're not yet above this one, well, that's not a clean breakout. We don't want any type of resistance above us for it to be a clean trend line breakout. So, we'll have to monitor both of those. So, while we're into TA, why we got our TA hats on over here, let's jump back over here and look at what's going on with the NASDAQ. And lead into the NASDAQ, by the way, is, you know, friend over at Bar Chart is saying that tech stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 by the largest margin since the peak of the dot bubble. A couple of different things that are interesting about that. Number one, back in the dotcom bubble, tech tech did not have earnings. Today, tech has significant earnings. Aside from that, also is S&P 500 back then and today has an entirely different makeup. So, I went ahead and and, you know, I'm asked, well, how much tech makes up the S&P 500? And it turns out that 35.8% 8% of the index, right? So, 40 I don't know, Grock's throwing out numbers here. 40% 39% 35% I should say. Let's just call it like I don't know roughly 38% of the index is tech related, which is interesting. Then even further, because now you're saying that you have tech stocks outperforming the S&P 500. S&P 500 is largely made up of tech stocks as well. Interesting. Don't trust Grock or anything else. What? What? I was doing a little research here on on Waller. Christopher Waller with Grock, and obviously LLMs are like use multiple all the time. That's what I do. Uh, and they're research tools. The one thing that's different about research tools or these research tools is this. Now, I remember back in the day, it must have been somewhere around 2007, 2006, editing Wikipedia. And back then it was like easy to edit. You could just edit it. And it was a thing on Fraggle Rock and about the the duers who would eat those like little construction bill. Well, the Fraggles would eat the duers' construction blocks, I'll call them. And I I edit it and I wrote that that they taste like they tasted like pumpkin curry, which was obviously false, and whatever. It's just fun. And, you know, it's a little harder to edit Wikipedia. I don't know if Wikipedia is a trusted source or not, but when it comes to these LLMs, I do believe that a lot of what is said is taken at face value. I I do believe that. And this is just a heads up. This is part of of CTM ongoing education, right? How to think critically. And I'm watching as Grock is researching, you know, the Fed member, and he's going through all this data, and and I'm I'm reading it. It's being written. And then it says over here that, you know, that Christopher Waller for dissenting on the on the Fed policy cut policy cut. I was, huh, what does that mean? What's that about? Had to go ahead and and and research it further. And I was like, "Hey, Grock, you know, Waller dissented on the policy cut in 2004 ahead of the election." And he's like, "Oh, sorry about that. That's not actually what happened. Turns out he didn't dissent over there. Uh, he did not dissent on." So, you have to you kind of have to fact-check the LLMs as you're doing your research. You can't just take everything on face value. That's the little note of the day. Bringing us back into a little bit of TA love. Ace, I saw last month mega amount of corporate buybacks took place, and that was with including a two-week period, 10-day period of a blackout window. That's absolutely insane. I mean, I see that Uber is moving towards um uh what 20 $20 million uh buyback of their stock, and I'm 20 billion, and and I'm wondering, does it like when a company shifts heavy into stock buybacks, is that like a different stage? I think Uber is worried that Tesla is not looking for a partnership and go, and that Tesla plans on on eating their market share. Uh, I'm looking here at what's taking place, and couple of different things. Purple line, that's as early as we get. We're watching it. I know most of you probably don't like this price action. Seeing a lower high and two long wicks over there. And yes, that's cause for concern if we break down from here. And I think this purple line here will be the earliest indication that we are breaking down and that seasonalities have a really strong chance of of playing out. Just leave it there. And just jumping down to the 30 minute. And I'm gonna go ahead and and remove this line from you. And I'm gonna add this line back in. She went to China to talk about monetary policy and did mushrooms. I mean, unbelievable. But that's what happened. I mean, do we live in the matrix? I I mean, unbelievable. That is exactly what happened over here. That's a crazy wick on this 30 minute candle over here. Look at that. Oh, he didn't grab it. I thought it must have grabbed this wick over here to get that type of bounce. It didn't. It didn't. And that's a significant bounce taking place on 30 minute. I wanted to focus in on this. And obviously overnight was very yesterday wound up being a very bullish session. And we had that that bullish engulfing, and then overnight it continued again and extending out up until the New York open, and everything looked very good up until the very moment that, you know, that it was noted that that Waller is indeed emerging as the favorite Fed chair. He met with Trump. Trump likes him. Now, it doesn't mean anything. It it doesn't mean anything in so much as that if if that's not the choice of of the administration, they're just throwing cover right now. And that could very well be. I don't it's too soon to know. That's for sure. Jumping back over here and and check this out. I did I didn't look at this setup like this, but I would like to in the future, right? And I'm just going to draw this line over here. And the important part is when we break above. Okay. When you when you break above right over here. Okay. And then you have a retest. And look, the retest comes in a little below the line, right? So if I'm if I'm going to try like what I'm trying to do now is wire my brain for the next time this setup occurs in real time, which it will. And I think this is a fantastic setup. Watch it with me. So you have over here trend line, right? Extend the trend line out. This is real time. I'm extending the trend line out in real time. I'm extended over here. It breaks up, right? So, huh, that's that's the best I could draw the trend line. So, if I saw that happened in real time, and then I have this next down bar, and then you break up and extend up, I I would probably go like this down like this. And I think that's that's in real time fair and clear. So, after the retest on the move up, I would go down to the low of the retest. And I don't like this, but this is what this is what I would do in real time. And I think that here you have an underbelly breakdown. Except that where I'm where where I thought it lined up when I looked at this is like this. See that's that that this is how hard it is like in real time for sure. And this does line up very well for me like this. You have the the breakout above. But in real time I would have got confused over here. That's what's so hard about discretionary trading. I I certainly would have got a little bit confused. What I'm looking for is the first and clearest underbelly. And if this were a breakout above and then a retest into that trend line, as price made the new high, that's when this gets extended out. That after price made the new all-time high, the underbelly breakdown becomes the signal. Except that if if like that, well, that looks easy and clear. In real time, it would have been messy if I was if I was doing that in real time. And in real time, I would have lined up this. I mean, it's still a good trade, but this is the the first underbelly breakdown is right over here. And that's a big difference. Anyway, that's that's my little something that obviously you've seen for the past year and a half. My interest on and that's why I'm I'm building off it today. I don't like this block over here. I like to make, you know, beautiful. Nothing easy about it. All right, jumping along, moving along. Seasonalities, we know we got these headwinds. 1998 cycle price was able to to maintain. By the way, we talked about it, and it's f it's funny how right over here, look at this. This is insane. On August 13th, you see the the high over there. Remember we said, listen, I would not be surprised there. I thought it was the 15th. It's August 13th. Insane. I It's insane how seasonalities work. I We said I said the 15th. It's actually the the 13th, 14th, 14th. You know, I would not be surprised if if we were trading higher. It's still in play. But most important is that I do believe that there's a a significant chance coming into the end of September that we're trading lower than we are right now. There's nothing bearish about that whatsoever. We're also a very keenly aware of right now that the the Treasury is out there putting pressure on liquidity, and we're watching the repo to see if ultimately throughout this month here in August and September it winds up getting drained, and this drain this this headwind of liquidity if it indeed during a period when historically equity markets here go into that consolidation chop, if we get a lot more of the same. Now, I have to say, after today's price action though, something's a little bit different in so much as that was a 3-day here on the daily. If we if we wind up having two wicks up over here, that's for sure a lower high, and then we break down from the purple. That's when I'm that's when I turn to near-term looking for downside acceleration, right? And then we'll have to watch the the high. So, again, continuing conversation of everything we do each and every day. Oil steady at 64 today. Dollar steady. 10-year also steady. Let's get into the good stuff. But before we do that, let me just finish off over here and just, you know, we have just Ethereum here entering the market. This again, another hot tip. And I have to just point out, we could go to alts, but I'm not doing that. I'm just going to go over here and show you our two alts. And and we can see here Solana and Solana showing weakness. We could see Cardano showing a little bit of weakness, and Ethereum is showing a lot of strength right over here. You can see the difference off of the last high. Ethereum here is riding that. And I had tip to to Ben, and I pointed out in real time as he said it a couple of weeks ago now at this particular moment. Watch alts bleed into Ethereum. And I'm reinforcing that because I think it's a really good narrative. I think Ben is really good at picking up narratives and then sticking with them. A lot of people's expectations of how long it takes for things to play out are very quick, but we could see this happening in real time. We also see that as far as uh buyside boost, right? We see Ethereum now taking a 100% allocation here on this new trade into the market, which means we would love a breakout. We we would love the breakout. And is it right now that we're seeing uh Bitcoin and crypto today fighting in the green because of the new um 401k? I I assume it's an executive order that allows people to be able to to trade crypto or or invest in crypto and buy crypto. CTM. I mean, this trade, and as nice as IBIT is, and and IBIT is is wonderful, Micro Strategy is wonderful, those could already be traded inside a 401k. It opens up the door now for that will open up the door for 24/7 trading. And we have templates that are specifically designed when it comes to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Solana for 24-hour, 7-day trading. And and they have different results than than IBIT, and they have better results. So, it's a it's a great thing to be able to to incorporate that as it develops into our our uh whatever I was looking someone didn't doesn't not enjoying the session, hitting the thumbs down and breaking out of here. Uh, it's just a rare sight. So, I was just taking note of that. That's why I stopped over there. I would like to see now as we're buyside boost 100%. You can see it's a clean line over here. This resistance here at 41 has been going on now since 2024. It's so like resistance horizontal in this case. Bring your eyes back to July of 2021. Resistance there as well. And you could see even further earlier in 2021, probably. I don't know. I don't know. That's probably May. You could see that, you know, on the weekly, you wicked above, but that's where the the bars came. This is getting brighter and brighter. Big shout out to the Hivemind. Big shout out to the silent majority. CTM strong and looking good. Speaking of CTM, Hivemind, Lando bought out some taking this conversation we were having about gold and the Federal Reserve. It's weird. This is a Treasury, like the Treasury gets to do this. It's weird that the Fed is publishing it. I don't know if they're doing that to open up the door for the the the EU to do it, but Lando bringing this conversation up a level. Look out for that uh next week. I'll expand on that uh jumping back over here and just enjoying being here with all of you. Let's get into more of our session as we've covered everything. I kind of it's so funny like the the session today's the theme is about the Bitcoin cycle, and it's it's most are misreading this Bitcoin cycle and talking about like, hey, you're reading it wrong, and we're going to take a look at that specifically and clearly, and that that is for sure the theme, but we're a half hour in. It's almost like I I need to get everything out of the way, our market review, and then we could go go ahead and get in. But it's a joy, and it's fun, and it weeds out a lot of people. It really does. I think that naturally CTM is able to kind of filter out. We're really good at filters. CTM filter, CTMX filters, but we're really good at at filtering out. And I think that this is exactly what happens. So, start off with with my friend Kryptob, and he's he's talking about we're we're now 989 days since Bitcoin made the low. November 1st, November 21st, 2022. By the way, I personally do not think that the low would have occurred when it did if it had it not been for FTX collapsing. And and I I think instead of a 76% drawdown, it would have been I I've done it before. I think it's 72 or 73%. And that might not sound significant, but it is when you're talking about diminishing downside volatility. It's not what happened. What happened was that there was this enormous scam being run by a centralized exch uh exchange, and it caused Bitcoin to die down and make a leg down. Uh, so Bitcoin bull markets typically last two and a half to three years, 900 to 1100 days from cycle low to high. So statistically, we're 90 days through the current cycle, and the numbers predict, and those numbers predict a peak in the next three to four months, which could very well coincide with, you know, August, September, Fed begins cutting in September. What's the data gonna say? Are are they cutting into a recession? And if they're cutting into a recession, and you go just three months out, I mean, one month, you know, you're off 2%. That's that's nothing. So, I'm I'm counting my finger now to three months, all of August, all of September, and into October. That's three months out. That's that's about the window of when, you know, the four-year cycle could pop. And then at that particular point in time, um, sorry, I was reading Cabby's comment. I'll come back to that one sec, Kabby. So, yeah, I mean, is it possible that Fed's cutting into a recession, and it's going to line up with the top of the four-year cycle? It's hard to argue that that couldn't happen. It's very real. It's why we pay so much attention to the data and where we are. Speaking of where we are, what's different about this current cycle? This is obviously just viewing cycles. I don't ne necessarily think that it's correct, but it's I like all vantage points. When I say I don't know that it's correct, we're viewing them from price after the havings. But what happened this cycle was a little different in so much that, let me just find it. Like Bitcoin had made an all-time high before the having, and in the past, you've seen that happen after the having, six months after the having, six months, roughly six months. This one was a little earlier, but of course, this one was the supply the supply shock of the having of the minor rewards was so much more important. Come over here, roughly six months. Come over here, roughly six months. Come over here before. That's that's different. And it's different because it's due to adoption, not because of the having the having of the miners' reward. So, is it better to measure cycles off of the low? And you can measure cycles from the low. You could also me measure cycles from the high, from where they put the high in. I like measuring cycles from where they put the high in, actually. I think that they line up better than the having. But anyway, I think you need to view cycles from the having. I think you need to view cycles from the low, and I think you need to view cycles from the high. And then I wonder, should you view cycles from the time that they trade above the 7.86 retracement fib back above? Anyway, let's go back. Let's let's continue over here. So, what's what's m like looking at this vantage point, what's really different is that I would not be surprised if they're cutting into a recession, and I would also not be surprised if it is quick, and, you know, five months out, which puts us into November, December, that we're seeing uh a lot of uh that that it's a a benign recession. How about put it that way? That's how that's how I am putting it. But there's so much that could happen, and the macro could change so rapidly. So, I have bias. I'm aware of bias, and that's why ultimately I'm going to be watching what happens for for very important take uh breakdowns. So far on the NASDAQ, we have the purple line. That's our earliest sign of of a first breakdown. That's not a a major technical breakdown, I don't think. We'll continue monitoring it together. So, this cycle obviously, we're looking at very subdued price action from this view over here, and this is where we are. And are we about to enter into over the next, you know, couple of months uh into the cycle top? And other people are looking at it, you know, the 500 days buy Bitcoin, 500 days before the having, and then sell it 500 days after. And if you would have done this, and this would have been your your um your your strategy, it's it's absolutely phenomenal, and it's worked out great up until now. And this is something that I've been repeating over and over, and I'm seeing it now repeated elsewhere. And this is just a thought. He he might be right. He might be wrong. But he's he's saying it's it's sad to think about that some Bitcoiners will get shaken out between 130 and 150,000 with no chance of of ever getting back in, which, you know, not I'm not a believer in hyperbitcoinization unfolding rapidly. Uh, it's unfolding, you know, as as the rate of adoption continues. And I and I obviously like viewing it like this. And um, but I do believe he's right about that. And I do believe that, and I've mentioned it before, that if you see the move into 130, 150,000 Bitcoin, and a lot of people exiting, they might not have a chance to get back in lower. So, that's something that we have to really watch out for. A lot of people are expecting into the next few months for us to see the the thrill and euphoria to take place. When you're viewing it zoomed out over here, I I mean, we we we've had massive leg ups ahead, some consolidation, and then further massive leg. We're not having that. We're in this sustainable channel, and the longer we're in that sustainable channel, the the better. Um, now, some people can't hold through a bare market, especially if that bare market is going to see a drawdown of of of 70, 80%. And depending on their age, it could mean a big. You guys you guys are all aware of of Tina, Bitcoin Tina. There is no alternative. And then at 17,000 needing to sell his his stack because if it went lower, you know, that was his that's his that's his future. And you so again, 53,000, 35,000, 27,000, those were the d-risk points. 17,000 was capitulation, that's what happened. But I I think that, and I don't think I know, if you're in that situation, there's nothing better than Bitcoin bull runs. You don't have to guess, and you could tremendously over the long run outperform buy and hold. The I think that's that's the best. So, coming back over here, though, a lot of people are looking for potentially over the next three, four months, those type of past behavior. We're not seeing that though. We're seeing lots of differences in behavior. And I think that even here, you could see that just lining this up with the Wall Street. We would have already been entering some upward fast forward momentum. You could see it over over here prior the beginning of the now again, the Bitcoin act, it doesn't there's no date on on any type of vote, something like that could be a game changer, but I imagine if if the US government is interested in actually stacking Bitcoin, I don't think that they plan on announcing it and then going ahead and doing it, and I think that actually likely that moves are being made, and they're probably unlikely finding a okay to stack uh a little bit quietly. They have said or it's been said by lawmakers that they're not going to disclose how much Bitcoin they own because they believe it's a a national security threat to do so. That says a lot about how they're viewing what's taking place. But we are seeing some deviation, and and I would be very surprised over the next 30 days, ex not 30 days, sorry, over the next two to three months, if we were to see some type of aggressive acceleration of the price of Bitcoin in so much as that, well, that's not what the the the macro suggests is on the way. The this is the Mayer multiple. is something that's that's very different. For all those that don't know who Trace Mayer is, he was a very early Bitcoiner. He used to be a um, you know, uh, a libertarian, you know, uh, very into the the I can't my pronunciation here. Sorry, y'all. The the Mises Institute, and that that type of background brought him into understanding Bitcoin very early. He was a pioneer. The Glacial Protocol. If you guys all Google the Glacial Protocol, the best way to store uh and hold Bitcoin, and Trace did a lot of early, like I remember with with Preston Fish in like 2017 doing like when a podcast and going over stuff, and one of the things that that that Trace had introduced to, besides like he exited the space, I don't know if this was actually the best exit of all time or not. But uh, anyway, I won't get into that. Bitcoin law. It doesn't matter. Uh, the Trace the the Trace multiple, right, is just looking at the 200-day moving average. And it's looking about how far above it is. And you could see as in cycle peaks during that euphoric behavior, it's got as high as as one standard deviation above. You can see during the not so liftoff 2021 Bitcoin cycle peak. Look how beautiful Bitcoin is. Look at this consolidation. Boom. Boom. Love it. Um, you got to an very elevated level. Right now, it's not at any type of level that would be suggesting that it's currently, you know, uh, in any type of overextension whatsoever. Actually, it's very much within the sustainable channel. So, that's beautiful. Uh, a huge accumulation cylinder Ace leads to is that does that lead to something more like this? If it were a huge accumulation cylinder, right here's the price of Bitcoin accumulation cylinder. Right. Good. I um jumping back, continuing the conversation. Other things like the Pi cycle is also pointing to something different taking place. Again, a lot of people really looking for that euphoric price action to occur over the next two to three months. Cycle top in Bitcoin. It could align with actually the US entering a recession. Again, it's why I've always said throughout this cycle, a lot of people thought that the cycle top was going to be left translated cycle. What poor analysis that was, right? And like and so many were embracing it. What poor analysis that was. And here we are now, and we are, you know, right on time as far as length past the having. And, you know, I was like, listen, the the cycle high is going to be a lot closer to the 2028 having than the 2024. But the reason I did that or say that is because I left room for what happens in between. And there's no doubt that there could be rough waters in between, including even like entering into a recession. However, if that were to happen, we have plenty of runway into 2028. That's why I've been do there's my expectations and about what happens next, not 2028. A lot of people beginning to embrace it over here. You got me PhD Bitcoin, 200,000 by the end of 2026 will trigger the bears and bulls at this point again. Now everyone's noticing that something's different with the cycle. That's why I said in like most are misreading the cycle because many are coming into the camp now that wait, this cycle is structurally different. You see people like like like Lynn Alden saying it's it's different now, and there's going to be less volatility on the downside, and also on the upside, no euphoric moves. We're actually into a sustainable channel, and they're talking about that's happening because of the change of and rate of adoption taking place. Bitcoin is maturing as an asset. We're at $2 trillion market cap. We continue to see lots of adoption events continue. So, my my belief is that as we enter the the hype window, it doesn't happen, and that we continue over here, and this should be a glaring difference, right? And I I think that most people into this area will still be expecting a top early 2026, but as we move towards, and and I am, you know, I believe they're able to engineer that growth. I I believe they're going to pull it off. It's not risk-free, and they might not be able to do it, but I am more along the lines of 2028, and, you know, 2029 was a mega run. That's that's where I that's the camp I'm in, you know. Um, and then I I said once we get it to here, and it becomes glaringly different, check this out. Like if you see this to happen, and then as you're past right over here after the having, you know, past 500 days, never has a cycle been able to trade above a previous cycle when a line from the having. This would be, you know, we had the the Bitcoin making uh all-time high prior to the having, that was a a very like check mark towards four-year cycle behavior has drastically changed. This would be another check mark. It's never happened before, right? And then you could see that what was different about this previous cycle was that it came up very strong into the having. Now I think that if we didn't get the global lockdowns, that this cycle would have been a little bit higher into the having, but that's what happened, and things happened, and we had actually they locked us down. They locked down the whole world, but I'm expecting something like this to be taking place. Yeah. And and there could be boom boom boom, and then coming in higher into and towards 2028. So, is that a sideways PA? Look, Bitcoin just during April, during the the NASDAQ 30% correction, put in a 30% correction. If equities at any point in time go south and tumble, Bitcoin's going to it's not immune, and it's going to it's going to tumble. Now, you know, we we've, you know, is the NASDAQ going to be off 60%? Is Bitcoin able to maintain a 1:1 ratio with the NASDAQ? It's very important the next time we get a pullback on the NASDAQ, because then we get to gauge how Bitcoin's acting as we're seeing. I just wanted to get a a little check on price over here. You know, NASDAQ just now holding on to unchanged, and Bitcoin green. Could we see is this the Waller the Waller effect? You know, I would love to see. I don't think I it could happen. Are is the is is the move of of opening up the 401k? Is the accelerated and continuing, you know, S adoption movement going to actually cause Bitcoin to actually decouple from the NASDAQ? I I was very happy to see as NASDAQ corrected 30%, Bitcoin correct with a 1:1 ratio. If we see NASDAQ correct 20% and Bitcoin only corrects 15%, that would be a huge signal. I don't know that would happen. And I don't know, you know, what are the odds of of the NASDAQ correcting 50%. I don't I wouldn't I don't think that they're I think that they're extremely low. So, do you think Bitcoin is going to correct 50%? Now, that's all very from where we are today, from where we are today, we'll take it as it comes. Um, if you haven't hit the like yet, go ahead and and hit the like button over here. The the Pi cycle top indicator, which is currently suggesting now across at 5 and 4,000 Bitcoin, and that's that variable too, right? And the longer we stay within a sustainable channel, the higher that will get. And of course, this is something that actually, you know, not not that it needs to cross. And this would become the if you hit like, if this is in the next three three to two to three months, the top by the, you know, and Bitcoin doesn't make it above 130, 150,000, and then goes into a a bare market, and the bare market is a 56% pullback. I I mean, this thing never crossed, and and obviously you all know my feelings on on the Pi cycle uh indicator, and you know, it crossed over here in April, price made a higher high in November. If the Fed didn't pivot, if if uh FTX wasn't selling Bitcoin, they didn't have this, could have went significantly higher, you know, and this would have been a very poor signal. So, that that's my feelings on that. I'm just pointing out uh Cole pointing out that this is something else that's been different that nothing like this in previous cycles. Looking at accumulation addresses, addresses that buy and hold Bitcoin, and they don't sell it. And you could see that this started being different over here. And it's massively different today, and where we are. And it's beautiful to see old G Bitcoin that was held for a long time now being put into treasury hands, that expectations are they too are going to be buying and holding for a long time. The changing nature of the of the cycle. It it it should be apparent to everyone. It's not yet. But again, I put out some markers of when I think that will be, and the next major marker will be the summer of 2026. And then another major marker of when this is it has to be different. If if you don't blow off in the next two to three months, that that will be one indication, of course, that this continues to change. If you move past the 500 days, and that's that's variable. You move past the 500 days, both of these. So, we'll have to say something like 700 days, you know, give it a lot of room past 700 days, and, you know, you just continue checking off things that are different and changing. If we trade above a previous cycle after, you know, it's never happened before, past 400 days. If it happens, you know, 700, 800 into the cycle, that's something that's major majorly different. These are the things that we're watching on the changing nature of the cycle and its behavior as we've entered into the early majority. And right now, it should be crystal clear to everyone the changing nature of the adoption. And by the way, we still have things like this. This is this is just, you know, from yesterday, and you're looking at um asset manager holding will buy up to $640 million of Bitcoin for its treasury reserves. And this is just the retail of today's cycle. But the retail of today's cycle, it's it's every day a new day. And it's, you know, between 200, 100, 50 million, 500 million, even up to a billion. And it just continues more and more. Anyway, that's our presentation for today, everyone. Tomorrow's Fun Friday. I'm not convinced that we're going to have a session. There's the possibility and potential we do not have a session tomorrow. I'm gonna leave that open, though. And uh I I 50/50 as of right now, or 51/49%. I'm not going to tell you which way. Everyone have a beautiful day. CTM strong. God bless you all. Be a joy. Lots of love everyone.