Dogecoin & Bitcoin Are Both Signaling Something Big?

because of what I believe with tokenization, because of what I believe is happening with the network effects, the fact that yesterday the Clarity Act probability skyrocketed up to 73% before the end of the year. I believe we are in a very important point in crypto. We're a year from now.

What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. Jordy goes through what's going on in the macro environment, why stocks hitting all-time highs may be a tale of caution, what's going on with interest rates, inflation, where he thinks we go from here. Also Bitcoin and Dogecoin. Jordy talks about Dogecoin as a signal for something he's paying attention to. And frankly, it made a lot of sense once he explained it. All that and much more in this conversation with Jordi Visser.

All right, Jordy, let's start with the new all-time high in the stock market. It feels like the month of May is the coming out party for the stock market. There's been nine or 10 trading days of the month, yet we hit six different new all-time highs already. And so, the momentum has just been getting more momentum. What is driving all of this excitement, enthusiasm, and potentially fraud in the stock market?

Yeah, we've made new all-time highs, but there's um there's one part of the market that continues to drive it, which is the AI trade. It isn't just semis, but semis are the fuel. Uh that's where the speculation is. And we've been able to uh navigate through everything that's going on with semis driving everything. The the one thing I want to say as as people are watching this and um the stock market's making new all-time highs, but you hear these, you know, these comments over time that it's doing it without a lot of breath. It's very concentrated. Uh and that's one of the the situations that we're we've been in over the course of the last couple weeks. We're actually seeing a lot of 52 week new lows. um as many and in some days more than 52- week new highs. Now 52- week new highs and lows are just over the last year. So when you say all-time highs, we actually have a lot of names that are making new lows. Um we only have just above or right around 50% of the stocks above their 200 day moving average. That's a one-year moving average effectively or close to it. So this is not a broad rally. And whenever this happens, that means there's a struggle going on. The things that are near the 52- week lows are remain software, which is still being disrupted by AI. It's not all software, but a lot of software companies. Uh, and then you also have everything related to the consumer. So, you've got McDonald's close to 52- week high lows. You have uh Nike near 52- week lows. You have I can go through like a list of these whirlpool on the housing side. Everything on the consumer side has been an issue. Now, historically, when consumer stocks are going down, that means inside the market, we're starting to say the economy is going to weaken. And again, that's on the back of rates moving higher and oil moving higher. And we have a very exhausted situation. And I mentioned this last week and I did for my subscribers uh a Tuesday video just saying we're not only exhausted which means the market has on the semiconductors has reached an all-time high but it is so stretched relative to every metric you can. It's kind of like going a year without rain in California and being in one of those hills where all it takes is a match and all of a sudden things go. And this week we started to see a lot of signs that uh semiconductors are at risk uh especially memory prices. And my gut tells me because I've been waiting for this inflation regime uh that we're in it now. Uh a lot of people didn't buy into it or they kind of became you know not caring about it. But I think Iran is now starting to have an impact. And I find it highly unlikely unless oil were to collapse, which is not going to happen, that the consumer names are going to get a reprieve from either lower rates cuz we have now hikes being built in. Oil prices are not coming down anytime soon in a meaningful way. Uh and then we have the back end of the year which people are going to have to deal with food prices and we got bad news on the food situation this week with a horrible report on kind of the spring season already uh in terms of the crop report. We're going to have higher food prices in the second half of the year. So I think the market is digesting and right now the overbought exhausted things uh look like they're losing the fight right now.

Now, Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary, when he was in China, he gave an interview to CNBC and he says that uh once the Iran wars ended, he thinks that energy and oil prices will come down and therefore inflation will subside. Uh dare I say, he was hinting at the idea that inflation will be transitory, although he did not use those terms. Um, do you think it is possible that energy prices could come down and inflation will come down or is there such a structural change both in the energy market and then therefore the the flow through to consumer inflation that your base case is that kind of higher level of equilibrium and we should brace for this to be like a two plus year uh exercise similar to the last time that inflation flared up.

Well, first of all, um Scott Besson is talking his book, obviously. Um this is a major bet that they've made. The midterms are coming up. So, they want this to go down, but when you um start a conflict and you've got a chokehold place like the Strait of Hormuz, you don't get to choose when it ends. Um that is a negotiation. And uh anyone who's been in any kind of negotiation, there's two sides to a negotiation. And making oil go back down is not something that they have complete control over. Um, on the second point, see this is the problem with inflation and this is why, you know, I I spoke out against true inflation. I spoke out against it. Your view on inflation and what's gone down. We just saw a CPI coming in at 6 last month was 0.9. It's down. That doesn't matter. What matters is where is headline inflation relative to what people expected. People did not expect inflation to go higher in the market. You cannot buy stocks at at without any risk and believe that if inflation goes higher and rates go higher that it's not going to have an impact on the market. That's just not true. If inflation does go higher than expected and that's what's starting to happen. We not only have the CPI this month uh this week, we had PPI which surprised on the upside, but most importantly we had the import price inflation which was really the leading part of this. This started before the war. A lot of the inflation data started before the war. So I live in a world of facts. I don't live in in jawboning and you know backtesting models to to look at things. I'm listening to investors and I'm going through what the surprise would be. And I'm looking at the charts. The rates charts are kind of scary. Um part of the reason that I said we're going into a regime shift is because we now have three-month bills sitting at 3.69 and year-over-year inflation currently is 3.8. That number is going higher. And even if we get a 0.5 number next month in the month-over-month number, if we keep putting in 0.5s, 0.5s over the course of 12 months get you above 6%. And that's year-over-year. So you have to be careful of inflation about a what they're saying and secondly what's going to happen. There was a Supreme Court ruling yesterday on the trucking industry. Uh I'm going to go through this over the weekend. This is really important because this is something that had started in the courts with the Biden administration. Uh, and you had a unanimous decision in the courts. When's the last time we had a unanimous decision in the Supreme Court? And this was about effectively trucking companies, the brokers, needing to make sure that who they're directing business to that they're liable for if people don't have insurance or if people. So, it really kind of gets into the underground market of trucking, which is going to limit capacity. The reason I'm bringing this up is we have diesel prices through the roof. Now you're going to have less capacity in trucks. This country runs on the trucking side and rates are already going higher. This is why anyone arguing that inflation is not going higher. I just don't find it credible that you can ignore semiconductors. You can ignore memory prices, CPUs, bottlenecks in transformers, gas turbines. We have a bottleneck supply shortage situation which is coming because the administration decided last year they wanted to run this thing hot. This is all part of debasement. If we have inflation running higher, that means nominal GDP runs higher than interest rates. Well, that's how you get out of a debt problem. That's one of the ways that you do it. And I think that's the attempt. The issue is going to be now that rates are pushing higher, we start to worry about the debt again because interest expense is now $1.2 trillion a year on the expense side. Even with rates at these levels, they're not in a position to be able to raise rates. And even if they were, how much are they going to raise them? Is that going to stop inflation? No. Because I do agree it's transitory just like the last one was transitory. The question is how long is transitory and if we go another six months of year-over-year CPI going higher. I think in that environment the market's going to have trouble. It's going to be pressing on the rate situation. And just remember the worst of last year post liberation day was when we had stocks, bonds and the dollar going down. I think people have to start worrying that maybe again we haven't had a correction now again in since we've had this massive rally. I think for semiconductors we're going to start to see some issues pop up uh where going to have to have some profit taking and then on the flip side I just think we're going to be dealing with inflation for longer than people think.

Now, what I find very interesting is if you look at the true inflation uh chart, forget for a second the number, just the direction of travel. Uh, into the beginning of this year, there was a significant drawdown. I think we saw that then in the CPI metric as well. There was this drawdown. Um, we also, to your point, uh, saw the stock market a couple of weeks after that drawdown. So you kind of had everything saying, hey, there is liquidity, there is inflation coming down, there is this headwind of kind of deflationary forces. I think that now what we have seen is we saw through inflation literally like a V-shaped recovery in the inflation uh data. CPI 100% is going higher and and has gone higher. Um, and then you have the stock market which has rallied, you know, very aggressively off the bottom. Uh, probably the second best recovery in, you know, 70 years or so. I think one of the aspects that becomes very interesting is most people, especially in the Bitcoin world, would say higher inflation means that inflation both hits the consumer but it pushes asset prices up as well. Now, I think if I go and I talk to people on Wall Street, what they will say is some version of yes, that's true, but markets are forward-looking and if inflation goes higher and asset prices get ahead of themselves, that means the Fed is going to be forced to raise rates, which then means there's a headwind. And so they're maybe a little bit more cautious about responding to that higher inflation and potential asset appreciation. How do you look at that balance? Because we know inflation does drive asset prices, but I think that what you're talking about here is like, but if we get that, then the Fed will have to cut or excuse me, raise rates and that could be actually a headwind for asset prices.

There's one part of the puzzle that's missing, which is rates. Um, and the debt. There is not a single time since the overprinting during COVID that when rates went higher, it wasn't bad for the market. At some point you reach a level where it starts to get bad for the market. And the reason is the interest expense starts going higher and the market starts going through the debt fears again. Remember, markets are all about expectations and they're about earnings and they're about the earnings are great. We just had a a great earnings quarter. My best guess here is a lot of that was the front-loading of the purchases of memory and semiconductor chips. Uh, you know, I'll be highlighting this weekend that the second derivative of memory has already shifted. We're not going up as fast in price as we were, which means they're going to have to do more volume. And this is where nominal GDP becomes important for people on earnings. I think you're going to see a sharp deceleration in the earnings growth, which shouldn't be a surprise. We just came in at 27 plus% year-over-year. So going down to even 15, it's a big drop-off. When the market has had a big run and it's only a small portion of the market, it makes sense for things to kind of drift lower. But I do think people have to remember that when you have inflation moving higher and you have rates moving higher, you're in a different macro regime. And the question is, will the Fed raise rates? Now, I don't think they will, but every day that an inflation print goes higher, every day that you're feeling it, then this becomes an issue. Do we raise rates or do we not? And I think that uncertainty is what the market is going to be grappling with. And this will probably last, and I hate to say this, all the way into the midterms. Uh, at some point here, we were probably going to have uncertainty because people were hoping that Iran would just be over and the strait would open. Well, that's not happened. And we have gone through inventories very, very fast. And I want to make sure people know as someone who um doesn't believe that the doomers about oil uh should be listened to from the extent of the world's going to collapse like COVID. It's not COVID, but what they are absolutely right about is that two things are going to come out of this. Number one, any country in the world is worried about their inventory and their strategic petroleum reserve because Iran is not going away. So this choke, this chokehold point, it matters. And whatever we're going to do to get around it, building new pipelines, moving stuff other places, that's going to take years. And so what you're left with is a scenario that it's not expected to be a big hurricane season, but let's assume a Katrina goes through the Gulf of Mexico. Well, then you're going to have supply disruptions that last for a period of time. We don't have the inventories anymore the way we did around the globe. So any point of the world that ends up having an oil or gas problem, it's going to matter 10 times as much as it did last year when we had excess supply. So you've got that issue that is going to be around now for the better part. And the other one is again, you're going to see every country hoarding. So I think people are underestimating how long energy prices are going to sit here. And if there's one part of the market at this stage that should benefit from the higher inflation situation, it is going to be energy stocks because they initially went higher with Iran. Believe it or not, they fell off and they've kind of not moved despite good earnings. But I think you're going to see a rotation into energy stocks now over the course of the next month.

I um I think that we are at the uh uh the demarcation line, if you will. If the Iran war is not over in the next week or so, I think that there is serious risk of the midterms. I think cost of living will not come down. Like this is, you know, when you talk about if you go back and watch maybe the tapes of us talking back in February and into March, I think that we both were highlighting, look, if this is like a two-week exercise, that's a very different thing than if this is a prolonged monthslong, you know, uh, kind of situation. The problem with saying prolonged is it's kind of, you know, it's a there's no technical definition. So it could be, you know, what are we talking about? We talking about a couple weeks, a couple months, you know, a couple years, whatever. It just feels like now is the point where if it is not over, I mean immediately, the damage is going to be done, right? There's not it's not going to be easy to get inflation back down, etc. And so that begs the question, um, I'm sure you've seen the charts of uh, you know, what is the 80s where inflation peaks, it comes crashing down and you almost get like a double top.

Is that your general thought process? Is that we get a repeat of that kind of double top and we could see inflation go as high as, you know, 8, 9% in America?

Is it possible? Yes. Do I think it'll happen? No. Um, remember in the first inflation wave, it it it was everything. So it was uh it was core inflation as well. The differences this time and the reason I I don't expect it to be that way and the reason, well, let me start with the reason why not. Um, we also got numbers on wage pressure this week and wage pressure is at the lowest point. Back in 2021 and 2022, wage pressure was at the highest point. I mean, I wrote in my paper this week on running hot into scarcity that, I mean, it was tough to get people back from yoloing. Like, this is a completely different world and wages matter a lot because that's what people can pay with. So, we're just we're seeing expenditures get cut. And this is why the stock market, you know, I talk about it all the time. Um, ECRI, which is a a very um important uh group in my life. When I was in Brazil, I started to study uh economic cycle and ECRI stands for Economic Cycle Research Institute. They do phenomenal work and they recently um came out and said that they have a long-leading inflation signal and that says to me we could get back up, especially with the AI shortages that are happening. I just don't think people fully grasp how important oil is across petrochemicals and like how many things it just impacts our life. You're going to have elevated inflation, but for services and for a lot of things related to the economy, we have a good portion of the economy which is not healthy. And so when you look at the stock market and the way I replaced ECRI from the way they do um economic data points is I used assets. So when I say breath is bad and I tell you the housing stuff is horrible and the consumer uh restaurant stuff is horrible and I go through all of these different things, the stock market is telling you the economy is not rate in a very, very important part, which is consumption. It's not going to go to a recession, but I think it says to your point with the midterms that this is going to be an issue. Now, you made a comment and I just want to make people uh realize this. You said if the war ends, we haven't had bombing, there's no war right now. This is actually something much, much worse. This is a strategic game of controlling a strait which is responsible for a very high percentage of all the world's oil. And if it never resumes again, we'll start running out of stuff, guys. Like that's plain and simple. That's why the doomers have basically talked about how bad this situation is. They are 100% right that if this extends and keeps going, you have to have demand destruction. Now, as of now, I'm sure there's been demand managing as opposed to destruction. The managing being countries can see it. I make jokes about this, but on X, you can go watch the boats not go through the strait like it's a video game. So, you couldn't do this 20 years ago or especially not during the 1970s. So, I think countries have prepared as best they can. They used up inventories. They've they've renegotiated where they're getting stuff. We've used pipelines we probably weren't using to full capacity, but we're still draining inventories and those data points are showing up. So, I think you're right. If this doesn't get um if we don't get the strait reopened, forget the war. If the strait isn't completely reopened, which I see very little chance of happening in the near term, uh you're left with a situation that I think people should expect higher inflation. I don't think it's going back up to the peaks that we were, but it doesn't take much to make that happen. So, I want to um maybe expand our view of the energy market. Uh obviously, the strait is very important as you're highlighting, but there's other chess pieces on the board that are all being moved at the same time. And I think on one hand, this is intellectually stimulating for a lot of people thinking about this. Uh, but it's very difficult to navigate for investors and for uh operators. And so the other two maybe chess pieces that I want to introduce to this conversation is Jensen Huang, uh this past week said that he believes that the energy needs are 1,000x larger than what we currently have. He didn't say 10, he didn't say 100, he said a thousand. He doesn't usually strike me as somebody who is overly bombastic. So he says a thousand and it's really like 50. He tends to be, you know, he kind of says what he thinks. And so a 1000x is a very large number. The same time, um, we heard for the first time the Anthropic CFO, he went on Patrick O'Shaughnessy's Invest Like the Best podcast and one, he should do all the talking for Anthropic going forward. I think he was very articulate and very impressive. Um, but two, he talked about this like cone of uncertainty and how if they buy too much compute and, you know, by proxy energy, then they are dead. And if they don't buy enough, you know, that's also bad. It's basically this like moving target. And they talked about how every single day they were having a daily meeting about their compute purchases and energy and and all this stuff. And so the reason why I introduced those two chess pieces is like on one side you have supply being constricted at the exact same moment that you have demand exploding for all the AI energy needs, etc. And so it almost takes what you were saying before and like supercharges it now when you realize it's not just one side of the equation. It's actually both supply and demand that are being affected.

Well, th this is what I've I show almost every week is the inflection point was November of last year when inference officially started as an agentic side. So once Opus 4.5 came into existence. I mean, I'm down in in Fort Lauderdale and I gave a speech on stage and that there was there was a geopolitical person. Um, in fact, I don't I don't know if you can get him on. I don't if he seems kind of expensive. Maybe you've had him on. Uh, John Citiles. Uh, he was fantastic. Um, fantastic. But he gave this long, let's say, 50-minute presentation, which had my attention the entire time. When someone with ADHD, that means you're doing a phenomenal job. My my limit's about 15 minutes. So, he went 50 and I was I was engaged the entire time.

I'm just laughing that you said he seemed expensive. I need you to tell me later what that entails. How can I seem expensive?

He seemed for his for his services, his speakings. He was great though. He what he did is he said this is the most important geo-macro point in 30 years. And he was obviously relating going back to um Russia and kind of going through the Cold War and where we ended up in in the '90s, the early '90s. It matches up with my presentation where I say this is the most important inflection point, not ChatGPT release, guys. That was the democratization of AI, but we had already had artificial intelligence. This is just when we all got it. The major point was when AI agents started to enter our lives, when we actually be able to have action. That's when co-work started. That's really when code started to become something that you could use and everyone said, "Now I'm using all of my code on this." So that's when demand started to accelerate dramatically. Nvidia did a deal with Gro at the end of the year because it's like, "Oh my god, this is no longer about data centers. This is about inference and we're not ready for this because you can't do this with GPUs. You actually need east-west traffic." Oh my gosh. And so that's what he's talking about. I believe he he said a thousand times compute. And if he didn't say compute, he said energy. He meant compute. And the reason is compute is just broken down into two components: it's energy and chips. So he's saying we need more tokens per watt. So the token needs have gone through the roof, which means the watt needs have gone through the roof. And that's how you go from his comment of tokens per watt. Now, we've had efficiency gains which allow us to deal with this with Blackwell, which is more efficient, and then Vera Rubin, which is more efficient, and then he's already working on the next gen to come out after that, which is more efficient. So that means with these current setups, you actually get more efficiency for less power or the same amount of power, you get more tokens. So we're in that situation right now where demand is exploding. At the same time, the supply side is being met to some degree by the efficiency in the chips, but the only way that works. The Blackwells and Vera Rubins are very efficient, but they need to be plugged in. And this is my fear for the second half of the year is that all the bottlenecks we're seeing, all the regulatory pressures on the data centers, we're actually not going to get enough, not to have the AI progress continue, guys, cuz that's going to happen. But I think we're probably over-ordering stuff right now. And this is why when I talk about the difference between a business credit cycle in the traditional fiat world where it's manufacturing for consumers where we don't have information between the two groups and you get out of balance and then the Fed needs to come in during a recession, we fire people, blah, blah, blah. This this new world, which I termed uh bubbles, parabolas, and speed crashes, it's about bottlenecks and shortages. And I think we've overpurchased a lot of semiconductors because we wanted to make sure we were ahead of people. We didn't know what they were buying. So we bought everything. When I say we, the hyperscalers, they're just ordering and buying everything. The problem is if you don't have a place to plug them in, they just sit in your garage until you actually have the data centers built. And I think we're going to be in a window here that will we'll show that at some point in the second half of the year.

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How does all the um anti-data center movement, the protests, the uh these videos we keep seeing of people yelling and screaming at local community meetings. Um, it seems like everyone wants the output of data centers. They want more videos and content and products and software and like all of that. Nobody is saying, "Hey, we want less of that." But there are a growing number of people saying, "I just don't want the data center in my local community or in my backyard or, you know, down the street from my house." And so do you expect that to also be a headwind outside of just the actual like components and and power shortages, etc. But there's like a social component that investors need to underwrite as well?

Of course, but this gets back into politics. Um, the same way I talked about Scott Besson is basically talking his book, um, and what he wants to have happen with energy, politicians in these communities are trying to stop data centers. Um, and if you just tell people that you don't know what's going to happen to your water, I don't think anything will scare people faster than, you know, what's going to happen to your water. They care about their kids. The water usage, this uses the the the fumes, this goes through the this is what stopped nuclear in the country. So do I think it's a risk? Absolutely it's a risk and I think it's already happening. But this goes back to what's been happening in the country. I mean, I'm down in Fort Lauderdale and I'm reading stories about how buildings that aren't even built now are getting demand from everyone from New York who wants to fly down because of the taxes that are going to happen in the city. So the same thing will happen with the data centers. If they can't be built in the north, they'll be built in the south or in in states where they're like, "Okay, you can do it here." The reason we have a rare earth problem with China is because the United States didn't want to have anything to do with rare earth because it is a toxic mineral. It's bad for the environment and China said, "We'll do it," because that's their way of kind of dealing with oil. We've had the same thing with fracking. So, anyone who doesn't realize that this is going to be an issue, it already is an issue. It will remain an issue. And this is why Elon Musk, I mean, it's one of the reasons why he wants to do this in space. It's not just because of some of the benefits of having the sun all the time, having automatic cooling, it's because he thinks you could start a project in a state and it could be shut off because a politician takes over and decides that this isn't going to happen. So, I think these issues are going to be there. The problem with data centers is they take such a long time to build, which means you're getting through multiple cycles of politics and politics in a democracy just make it very hard to do anything. So I think this is going to be an issue. It's it's it's a main reason why I think people are making a mistake to not look at semiconductors and just realize one of the reasons that they're going to have to trade at a lower multiple to earnings is because these bottlenecks and these risks are real and it won't be a cyclical stock anymore because AI is a given, but over the course of say 6 to 12 months, it absolutely could run into a mini recession due to bottlenecks and shortages.

Now, when we look at um the stock market, I think that you're very uh accurate in saying look, there's a lot of carnage actually and there's one sector that's driving everything. Uh, you can look again, the Roundhill ETF. I think it's now over 10 billion in the DRAM um ETF. So obviously people want exposure to this stuff. Um, but in crypto, you texted me a very interesting idea. Usually we talk about Bitcoin and you mentioned Dogecoin and I got to say, I, you know, I took off my uh hypothetical glasses and I kind of cleared my eyes again to make sure I was actually reading correctly what you said, but you told me that you were looking at the Dogecoin chart. You don't strike me as a Dogecoin maximalist. So, what uh what's going on with Dogecoin in your mind?

All right. So, we've been doing this for over a year, and I know there's a lot of people that um both watch slash listen to us, but also watch me on the weekends.

You're popular. You're popular guy. Good-looking, smart. We get it.

You're ridiculous. I love data. But what I the data I love the most is the data that I can attach a signal to. So, um, here's my overall belief, and I said this on stage this week. Uh, we talked about Micron Technology last year. Um, uh, Phil Rosen, uh, your guy, uh, reposted something very nicely about me and said that in my stock selection for his piece last year for the best stocks for 2025, mine was Micron, and I did that when it was 86. I mentioned last week that I sold out of two-thirds of my Micron. Well, I got rid of the last third this week because

But here's the thing. It has nothing to do with my belief in AI and my belief that Micron's going higher. I do believe it's going higher. And as I said last week at 6:30 when I made the 23 sell, did I think it was going to double from there over the next year? No. At eight something. I was like, "Well, now I'm I'm I'm not I'm not looking at this anymore." It had already gone up eight times from where it was a year and change ago. If you're lucky to get an eight-bagger in crypto, you're happy. Well, this was in a public stock. So, to me, it was like, go find something else. Now, what I told these people on stage was because of what I believe with tokenization, because of what I believe is happening with the network effects. the fact that yesterday the Clarity Act probability skyrocketed up to 73% before the end of the year. I believe we are in a very important point in crypto where a year from now the same problem that these institutional investors are having with semiconductors, which is how do we buy something that's gone up eight times from where it was, even though the earnings are good, I can't do this. Even if it's cheap, crypto is going to move away fast at some point too. And Micron stayed below, and everyone can go look at this, it stayed below 110 repeatedly for the entire first part of last year in the same way that crypto has. It didn't have the energy to push through and I couldn't figure it out because as someone who was absorbed with AI, I knew we weren't going to have enough memory. That was clear. I didn't think it would get to the situation it did in with inference. But that first move from 100 to 250, that's absolutely what I thought and that's what I wrote about. I thought it would double. Well, when inference came out and I realized how much more memory was needed, that changed the equation. I think a year from now people will be looking at crypto in the same way. They're not paying attention to it right now because it's not moving. So this is where Dogecoin fits in. Dogecoin to me has no institutional sponsorship. It has zero associated with what I'm doing. And that's why me not looking at it is important. The reason I started looking at it is technically it looks close to a breakout. At the same time, Bitcoin up near the 200-day moving average looks like a breakout. Ethereum around 2400 to 2450 to me would look like a breakout. But Dogecoin to me, if it can break out and actually run, that would mean that retail is starting to get interested. We talked about how retail was focused on AI. Well, guess what? If I'm right about memory, that whole DRAM thing right now, it's done. It's not that it won't be back in a year or maybe two years, but it's already had a huge run. Micron has outperformed every Mag 7 dramatically since 2018. Dramatically. Forget the last year. Dramatically. So, I think we're at a point where you have to watch things like Dogecoin. You have to watch things like Bitcoin. If Bitcoin gets above that 82,000 level, it will have broken the 200-day moving average. And I'll end it on this. I said the most important thing was the regime shift this week. We have negative real yields and I think they're only going to get worse. And I don't think the Fed is going to move rates. And I think earnings in the S&P are still going to be good, which means there will be a floor to the stock market. Even if we get a sell-off, you want to be in a position to buy things because I think they're going to have to do something in rates. And that's why rates moving higher is actually the best thing for gold, for silver, for copper, and for Bitcoin because the government will have to push rates back down. And that's going to take some kind of debasement move that they're going to have to do to keep these under control. And I think that's a positive.

So, I just want to make sure people understand because they're going to hear Jordy, Dogecoin, and they're all going to freak out. What you're saying is you almost don't care what the underlying asset, the thesis, etc. You're using Dogecoin as almost a retail index. You're saying there's no institutional participation here. And therefore, if there is excitement in the quote unquote retail index, which is just happens to be named Dogecoin, then that is a signal that you would use that retail excitement is coming back to crypto more generally, Bitcoin, etc. And so really, you're almost using it as like an alarm system because it is the most pure play non-institutional asset that has size and liquidity in crypto.

I don't even need to say anything else. You just described it exactly the way I'm using it.

All right. Now, now it makes a lot of sense. I, you know, I had a I thought maybe you drank something crazy in Fort Lauderdale. I was going to have to come check on you when you first texted me. Um, let's talk about uh uh um Trump's trip to China. I saw somebody um I I don't want to uh say who it is because I don't know if he he wants us to bring a bunch of attention to his trading ideas, but he tweeted, here's the list of all the CEOs going to China. They're all like trillion-dollar, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars and there was like one company that was like a $5 billion company. And he said that he put $350,000 into that stock and that was the only reason why. He goes, "Why is that CEO there? Something is going on with that CEO that he's associated with these people and his stock is too small and therefore I'm buying it." And he joked, he was like, "This is what investing has come to is that like the, you know, White House asset management trying to read the tea leaves may actually be a signal for a return." Now, whether that ends up being a good investment or not, I have no clue.

But it does feel like there has been immense scrutiny on who's on the trip, why are they there, what is being talked about, right? Like there's so much attention on this. Is there anything that you're paying attention to that you think is actually important or is this all just like the soap opera of politics and finance now and it's a lot more noise than signal to you?

I I really do think that this was more for show. Um I I I thought there might be something big going on and there be some big announcements, but unless there's something later, I think this was really more to show how important the relationship was. It was like bringing people to a meeting that you want to emphasize that you really do want to have a grand bargain. Uh it doesn't seem like anything super important came out of this other than she's going to take a visit apparently to the White House uh I guess in September. But uh I viewed it as one of the reasons that the markets had a tough time overnight is they were probably expecting something positive to come out of this and really honestly nothing did. And I think that's really one of the big things. So, I'm going to take the China US trip as just another sign that um we're kind of in this, you know, mediation between two people getting divorced and we're we realize that the kids are going to be connected to both of us and the kids in this case are the global economy and the rest of the countries and we got to find some way to divvy up the assets and you know, hey, you're not touching Taiwan. Hey, just so you know, we've got control of the world's oil. Um I I think that's what this was.

It's like uh uh some sort of I like the word mediation, but maybe um this whole idea of like Trump in particular obviously thinks that China is an adversary in some ways, but he's very complimentary. He is very um uh a showman when he is engaging with them. Um, I always find it uh quite funny that we send the president to China. Very rarely does the president of China come to Washington DC. I think the last time, if I remember correctly, that uh Xi Jinping came to America, he went to San Francisco and there was this whole controversy of they like cleaned up the city for a weekend and then like let it go back into, you know, dismal uh state. Um, and so are you changing anything in your portfolio this week other than selling Micron?

The biggest thing for me was um I think there was there was a need if not a uh a hope by the market that somehow or another China would intervene on Iran. And we'll see what happens with ships going through the strait. Maybe it's not going to be announced, but maybe Iran is behind closed doors going to allow more ships to go through. But I think that was the most important sign, and that's why you've got oil prices this morning going higher. I'm sure over the weekend, um, as oil prices go higher and as rates go higher, there'll be something out of the White House to say that this is all under control. Um, in fact, I'd be shocked if it didn't happen. So, if if the market ends up on the lows today, just I wouldn't be stupid enough to go out over the weekend short or or not expecting that there'll be some announcement because of rates moving higher. And every time 30-year yields have gotten above 5%, the government has responded and we're above 5% decidedly. Uh so, I think that's the main issue is that uh the Iran situation didn't really get dealt with and so we're just at a point where the

The market has run out of gas.

All right, I want to end on a fun one. And you have no, uh, no warning of this. So, we're going to get your raw thoughts. Have you paid attention at all to the GameStop eBay saga and, uh, Ryan Cohen and GameStop trying to buy eBay for 55 billion?

Yes.

All right. What are your thoughts? You think they can do it?

No, I don't think they can do it.

Elaborate. I, I, so, you know, and this might be the cynic in me. Um, and I don't use social media for this, but sometimes I think people use social media when they're not on the front page anymore. I don't, you know, I mean, I, I, I think that goes on probably more than we realize to try and get energy, but in particular if your, and I'm not going to say it is for Ryan, but if your life is social media and the attention that you need, sometimes I think people just put things out there, um, to get that attention and to get the fire lit and go through it. So, I, I think this, and again, I'm just a cynic and someone who, who believes that social media is used to try and draw attention to individuals, that this was purely, let's get us back in there, make sure people know GameStop is still around. Uh, let's make sure we're back in the headlines. It is. Uh, I don't think it's real.

Interesting. I think he really wants to be the CEO. I don't know if the deal can get done, but, um, I also think it's the perfect target for something that I'm gonna call digital activist investing, which is very different. Like, you know, one of my favorite stories is always the Paul Singer, like an Elliot, you know, they went and they took like the warship from Argentina or whatever it was and like that was, you know, that was crazy. But that's like old school activism. Uh, or, or, um, uh, you know, maybe a Carl Icahn, whatever. I think Bill Ackman has been touching, you know, kind of the stove a little bit when it comes to this, like digital activism and the ability to use social media. But what I saw with Open Door and I shared this with a, with a couple of people, uh, in private this week, u, but I'm more convinced the more I've thought about it. We've never seen a digital activism campaign that went after what I'll call like corporate executives. And at Open Door, pretty much the, like retail audience me'd CEO until she stepped down. Like they just pressured her.

And I think that in, like, corporate America, you kind of throw barbs, but it's like a gentleman's, you know, kind of competition. And so there's like some things that are off limits or, you know, you don't personally go after people or you would never, like, post a meme about a person or whatever. But because politics has degraded to where now that happens, it almost feels like that's being introduced now in corporate America. And there's probably no group of people other than the GameStop shareholders that are like experts at doing this. And so it does feel like there's things that they can do. Now, doesn't mean that that the corporate governance of eBay cares. Like they may not be on the internet. They just maybe like, you know, who cares, whatever.

But to me, that was my big takeaway is like, oh, wait a second here. You have like the traditional playbook is now meeting this, like digital activist playbook and Open Door was maybe the first time I really saw it. This could be the second one. We, we'll kind of see what they do if they stand down or if there's some sort of proxy or something. But I do feel like this is going to become more and more, which kind of ties into your Dogecoin thesis of like, actually the retail flows, the retail excitement, the retail energy may be one of the most important signals for people to pay attention to because where attention goes, capital flows, you know, and there's kind of returns that then come off of that. So, th, this is the beauty of, of doing this show with you. And one of the things I take, uh, I take credit for as an individual who's, who's been fortunate enough to be successful to make money, but also flexible and adaptable enough to be able to see that the world is changing and that the metrics that you've used in the past for, oh, this is a bubble, this is just like, dot com, we're in a completely different world and most people that I know that are my age, that I've known in the industry a long time, that I read on X are so bearish and they've seen this before and I, you guys have no idea. You don't have the experience. I mean, we lead the show off that I have 30 years in, in, in, in markets and people may think I'm an idiot. They may think I'm smart. They may, the whole gamut and I'm sure it.

Everyone can have their opinion. But here's the reality. What you just said and I said, both can be true. So, I'm looking at it through the lens of this deal is not going to happen.

What you said, he wants the deal to happen. He wants this. I believe that, too. Do I also believe he's using social media? Yes. Do I believe Open Door ended up being a huge free marketing campaign? Yes. Do I believe that using digital media, my business is content now. Whether I like it or not, it's what I do.

And I'm out there trying to help people navigate through this. This is the way I'm going to tie it into something very important to me that again, I mentioned yesterday. I think you and I both agree and most of the people I know in crypto that are on the macro side of which there's not many, believe the distribution of wealth problem will be handled through what's going on in crypto. And the reason is, and I, I've only learned this in the last year. Micron is up over eight times or was up over eight times from where it was. And yet no institution that I have met bought in at those levels. Most of them didn't buy in at 200. Retail did. And retail will buy to 400. They'll buy to 500. They'll trade it to 800. They make money. And I know people that have made a lot of money trading this stuff. Now, the quote unquote smart professionals that pronounce themselves as professionals. I've been in this game a long time. I know better than you guys. You guys are all going to lose your money. The reality is that's what attracted me to crypto was my son did 700 and the 70,000 and lost it all. But he lost it all for a different reason. He got involved in names that weren't Bitcoin. He didn't know the rotation aspect. He didn't know. Most good traders know, hey, I'm going to ride semis until they're done. That's why the tools that I create are related to things that only retail traders and traders can get involved in. I don't care what it is. If it's, if it's a $100 thing and it's going to 800, I want to be long it. And if it falls from 800 to 600, I'm fine. I'll move on to something else and try to find the next wave to catch. That distribution of wealth is going to happen over the course of the next decade where retail is going to be involved. And the reason pension funds and endowments and these guys will never be able to make that kind of money. The way that they tried to make that money was by going into VC, by going into private equity, by going into things that in my opinion are going to be completely disrupted by tokenization. We haven't talked about this, but that was part of what my speech was about. The one thing about tokenization that people have to realize for private markets, bringing transparency and bringing liquidity into markets is not good for private markets and VC where they've been able to sit on things for a long period of time, not have to mark things to market and play a bunch of games with shenanigans to be able to go through it. And that is very attractive to pension funds and endowments and places that don't want to take the career risk of dealing with something like Bitcoin. The only people that can handle the volatility that's going to exist in a tokenized world, that are going to be able to handle the volatility in a world of prediction markets, in a world of microns and semis and all of this stuff, in my opinion, is retail because they have the risk, they have the training for it. I just don't believe that people and institutions can go through and all this came out of what you just said because I do believe social digital AI agents are changing the world and the reason we did this is because we believe these places are merging. So, the fiat world is merging with the crypto world and it's through AI agents and through AI.

I could not agree more. What, uh, what are you going to cover in your video? Anyone who is watching this right now, if you've learned anything from Jordy, go to Jordy Visser on YouTube, subscribe. That is the digital thank you. It's like, uh, my friend Sam Park calls it a gentleman's digital handshake. You know, you're like, you know, thank you, sir. So, go hit the subscribe button on Jord's channel. But what is your video going to be about this week?

So, I, I'm, I'm gonna go through the inflation side in detail. It's going to start with the inflation side. And again, I wrote a paper called Running Hot in the Scarcity. And that's my, my thing is that the government wanted this. They got it. They got the earnings. They got all the things they wanted. Well, there's a negative that comes, which is when you haven't built enough things, you're going to have shortages. So I go through that. I do think this means that the stock market is going to go through its next phase of a regime shift. Whether that means the market goes down or the market goes up, to me, is going to be driven by what happens with rates. It's very important for you guys to understand the rate dynamic because this is something again, the administration doesn't have control of. They don't have control of the oil situation. They don't have control of the fertilizer situation. They don't have control of NAPA, of helium, of all of these things. And this just means that in a world where we were dealing with lower inflation, now we're dealing with a world where inflation is above interest rates, which makes the Fed uncertain. And we have a new Fed here coming in where it is very, very divisive. Uh, you just don't know. So I'm going to cover all of that and then I will go through the areas of the market and what you have to look for in crypto, including Dogecoin.

All right, we'll do it again next, uh, Saturday. All right, we'll do it again next Saturday.