Transcription
At the end of the day, we are all capital allocators, right? All four of us in one way or another. Maybe on the venture side, the private equity side, whatever. So, we were trying to arrive at what statements hold the most value for us. Uh from a rate of change is increasing, world is changing. 10 years from now, which industry would have grown the fastest? I'm going to share the statements one by one and maybe we can all opine disagree agree them.
The first one I'll say is Indian families with rising income reducing family size will invest in premium education outcome focused education will take preference. What do you guys think?
Agree in only this particular I think in general that will happen. Yeah. I'm just saying Indian cuz we were sitting in India doing this exercise. Nico, do you think everybody will spend more on education? No. Uh but certain cultures like in India or in South Korea or where I come from in in Greece, uh they absolutely do because they see this as a viable path to uh improving their chances of their offsprings doing well. In the US, the average person does not care about spending money on their kids' education. My kid is bad at math. The teacher is bad. That's changing. Why is that culturally? It's an immigrant nation and everybody has become successful in the recent past. So, didn't they distinguish the successful from the unsuccessful also through the lens of education? Who is they? like all the American people even you know you forget when you made it to the top often you forget and uh for a lot of folks um this is not priority number one if you're like an immigrant yourself uh or you're somebody affluent you of course do care a lot about it. Yeah. Every so society in the past that has achieved pinnacle status has always shifted to arts and culture as their way to to spend time whether it's sports or something else and in America it's a very sportsoriented culture more than it is an educationoriented culture like you said I I don't know too many you know can I ask you guys to give it a rating 1 to 10 uh this one the the Indian education one uh eight or nine okay Same I'm like a 10 for like you come from like a country that's on the up and up. Yeah. Okay. Nikon outcome focused education. Yeah. I think it'll will be the it is the future. Nine. Okay.
Secondary markets for private companies will become a big thing. 10. Again, these are moments in time, right? Because there are moments when um regulators and the incentives are aligning for public markets to be opened and to welcome companies at a much earlier stage. There are other moments that this is not the case. So at the moment, you know, we're uh living in during a time where a lot of the value um is captured by private investors on the way up. Like you now see quite a few companies that are worth $100 billion plus whereas back in the day, you know, this was not the case. Like when Facebook went public and was valued on day one over hundred billion dollars, I think they were the first ones ever, you know, to do that in 2012. And now also argue that tomorrow a lot more really large companies will want to avoid a circumvent taking retail money because they'll have to be overregulated if they do. If indeed you know they have to be overregulated and they have a choice because they can get funding from other places yeah they might avoid but if we bring down the regulatory constraints or capital from other sources becomes more scarce this could be an option for me you know somebody who lives in the US it's actually sad that the retail investor the pension funds the low fees um ETFs uh cannot have access to some of these wealth enough sooner rather than later. It's sad 100% but I don't think it's changing anytime soon. Right. At the moment it looks like it's not going to change anytime soon. Yes. Yeah. It's like eight or nine. There's access. I think if you think about like imbalance in the future or disparity like access becomes the primary thing that only a few people have and that's the sad aspect and access will be gatekeep. Yeah. access will get kept and I think that's the that's the sad aspect but do I see it changing anytime soon? No. The incentives are just not aligned. Do you guys want to rate the statement Nico? Secondary markets, secondary markets, marketplaces. They're going to be strong forever for the next 10 years. Yeah, I think it's a five. Yeah. Five. Yeah. I'd say 10. I don't see I don't see it changing. Niko, let's split the middle. Take seven. But I think I don't think will change.
Nothing will change in the end start of next decade. The world will be older and sicker. Wellness, hospitalization, longevity, great sectors to be in. I think they're two different statements in my opinion. Explain. I don't think you I don't believe the world will be older and sicker. Why not? I mean we're constantly improv I first I believe like as kind of DD mentioned like biotech is the application area where I do believe us discovering new things will be the most like literally one sector where we discover the most things where AI will be useful it's biotech and I think that will help transform most of the common diseases why we die I mean OMIC is already doing with obesity which is a huge factor so I do think we'll live longer and like healthier but I do think that will take investment longer and longer and that is agreed world will be older if we live longer world will be older yeah so that's why so older no and not sicker yeah and then average like if you think about median happiness years let's put it like in a like philosophical way no I'm more thinking how many people are sick at one point of time because money can be made by treating them how many people you want to answer? Yeah, I I I was going to be pretty strong on this one. I mean, just again, this is a side effect of birth rate decline. So, as birth rates decline, the demographic imbalance will switch to having more older people. Um, I think you Yeah, you're right. I mean, you have to debate the baseline of what sicker means, but you know, that's what I was thinking. Generally, if you're talking about the world being sicker because there are more older people and older people are generally sicker. Yeah. I mean that is that is factual also we've just come out of co after many many decades we had something like that maybe there will be more perhaps but even without that I would say the world is older people get sicker people will be older therefore people will be sicker and then longevity wellness and all of that very important stuff also because of how connected we are right now when something transmissible comes about next we'll all get it much faster than we did historically that's why I say sicker like I was sitting with somebody from Moderna last week and they were saying we got really close with bird flu but the world has gotten to a point where if I have something which is moderately infectious the odds of the last person in the world not catching it are low today but I think we'll be able to come up with an antidote faster and distribute it faster also I think that's the corollary that I don't think we get like would have been much worse without mRNA a lot of these things that didn't exist like 10 15 years ago and I think that pace is only going to accelerate. So I'm that's what I was trying to like understand. I think the acceleration of us making things better. Yeah. Let me put it more specifically. I think the ambiguity goes away in 2035. I'm reviewing the portfolio that is being invested in today. Will the business of treating sick people have done well by then? I think we're rating that. I mean in the US it's already what 19% of US GDP goes in healthcare. So that number will go up 100%. Yeah. That the number will go up. Does it mean it's a good business? Yes. Exactly. TBD because like if you are like in healthcare services or um you run hospital stuff most of them are not great businesses. However, you know, if you find ways to bend the coast curve, oh my god, amazing. All the trends are on your side. I suspect there are better businesses outside of the US because the US has a problem which is very unique to itself. Right. That's right. Like the multiples of hospital companies in India like a 100 times especially if you've been able to build a brand around it. Do you like to rate this Nicoer sicker world? I think older uh yes seeker I it's a definition thing but like you know is this market going to become much bigger between now and 2035 yes it's like a nine you know nine yeah eight
Senior living this is something we invested in funnily enough me and Hmon did this deal together we did the couple in senior living. Were you part of that? I'm aware of it, but I was not part of it. No. Yeah. Yeah. Thoughts? The world will be older. Senior living, affluent senior living. Well, some of the fastest growing cities in the US are the villages in Florida. Mhm. So if there's something to be said, you know, about that model expanding to other countries, um I think, you know, this one has like very awesome long-term, you know, prospects and especially in the developing world as like people become um more affluent, their kids are fewer, they don't live with them, but they move for economic opportunity in other parts of the country or other parts of the world. um you need this uage to be close to other elderly people andor um individuals who are going to be able to help you. This particular deal we did together is a company called Primus. And the data he was showing us is if a 70-year-old man or woman is at his facility, which is a very affluent like high-end senior living facility, the quality of life and the longevity of their life goes up by a significant premium because they have community. That's right. and and he showed me this really crazy research. Like when my dad was sick, I got him a nurse. So then he didn't have to do anything. He didn't have to move. Somebody was doing everything for him. That's the worst thing you can do for your parent. Uh it's very counterintuitive but I think just that community the having to play with someone having some competition being organized playing memory games walking all of that with like like aged people changes everything. Absolutely. Yeah. So if you read about uh blue zones which are like the different parts of the world where they have the highest percentage of people who are 100 years old plus uh the shared trait that they all um have to uh demonstrate is community. Yeah. So like in Okinawa and Japan and Nicaria and Greece and like you know other parts you're somebody you know who's like 100 years old your kids might be dead or incapacitated but because every day you know in your village you're socializing and you feel like you have responsibilities this is what keeps you going. We rated this highly in India even though there is such a big societal stigma about senior living. M I think the misconception one has is at a certain point with your parent. You're almost being selfish by keeping them at home with you versus allowing them to make more choices of their own. Right. Yeah. It's a hard thing especially in India to overcome. I don't know how it's in Greece but same but you know because in Greece again you know the uh standard of living went up and then the cost of living cost of labor also you know went up. What saved um a lot of families was like Eastern European um labor talent that visited the country and stayed there as illegal immigrants and then got legalized. But in the beginning, you know, if you had your kid, your uh elderly parents sent to like senior living facility, everyone would look down on you. So the preferred choice was to have somebody from Georgia or Romania, you know, do they work for you? But then you realized all the stuff that you mentioned, you know, that your dad or mom wouldn't interact with anyone else. The cognitive decline would be uh faster. So now, you know, after like 30 years of doing what I said, uh some of the uh much better senior living, you know, businesses uh are looked up more nicely or favorably. You guys want to comment on senior living? Would you send your parents? Um, it's a tough one. Um, I would there is some bias against it as as you said, but you know, maybe that decision will change over time. I think it depends on what they want to do as well. Um, I I I do think in in my particular case, I'm lucky that they have a good community already at home, so that does solve a bunch of the problems, but you know, who knows how this goes. Um but generally on your question you know in the US very much um in the rest of the world slightly less um just because there's different dynamics social inter intercultural dynamics in different parts of the world there is also taboo and things like that so I I'm not as sure but in America hi yeah I think it's not a question of like me sending our parents like my parents luckily my parents and my grandparents live together And I think that's nice like from a community standpoint and that's very rare. Not many people have that. Yeah, we're very lucky that everybody likes each other. Um but it's not a question of me sending my parents or not. It's a question of like them choosing what to do. It's like at the end of the day, we all we're three brothers. We all live in separate houses. They live in their own house and what they what do they want to do? I think it makes sense. Like I've I I think both from a community standpoint but from a as labor gets more expensive like economies of scale standpoint as well. It just makes sense for more people of the same stage in life to live together. Would you guys like to rate the statement Nico senior living? I'm like a nine. Eight. Yeah. Nine. Like unless there are like infectious diseases like co you know. Yeah. Yeah, senior living facilities are going to do really well. Yeah. No, some of these like one of them with Primus their plan is to have golf carts and you drive around inside the community. It's by a lake. It it's not like living in polluted Bombay or it makes a huge difference like just the air quality alone changes so much which air quality is one of the biggest killers. Yeah. in and like in the world and like one of the reason why people are having like liver failures is because of the air pollution you know where they live it's like yeah that's one of the biggest you know risk factors um or like health risk factors for life in the world. So any technology that's helping alleviate air pollution or making you know gasoline cars and other such things you know less prevalent will do really well.
The next one is content. The theory we were discussing is with search being disrupted in the manner that it is and people let's assume use Google a lot lesser or any kind of search platform that is throwing up ads and if anyone wants to build a brand social media might exist in some form but Google ads and the likes of that will not work to be able to build a brand you have to be able to hold attention one way or another through some form of content and video is working right now. So the alpha between a brand that does well and a brand that doesn't do well, content is going to be the biggest differentiator. Thoughts?
That's the premise. Yeah, I very much agree with that. And like for every generation if you know how to speak whatever you know the medium where content gets viewed um is fluently you can do really well. So, for example, there is, you know, that uh Spanish uh olive oil gratia, I forget what it is, you know, that became like a $70 million plus, you know, business in a couple of years just because they know how to appeal to young people or like are you today hacker? Do you know how to speak uh X? You'll do well. Are you a young consumer uh founder who knows how to speak Tik Tok? You will do well. Yeah. And you know in a few years will be s something else. I don't know what that it will be but whoever knows how to play that game well this is golden. But tensson is all you need. I think DD is doing well at that. Absolutely. You're doing pretty well yourself. Absolutely. What are you going to pivot into with all this attention that you have? I don't do content for you know any practical purpose. Uh which is why I've never went into things like video. It's like saying I don't make money for any practical purpose. Uh no no it's not it's not the same. It's it's like I you know everyone's presumably got an education with some goal of making having some job. There's other reasons to do it but having something but I genuinely don't think I ever did anything online to get an audience or to have money or to have anything. Otherwise, I I mean, what I would tell people is like, yeah, if you want to do content just for that purpose, then you would there's always easier ways to do it. You do humor, you do um hot topics, you do very debatable, questionable things. And I mean, some would argue I have done some of that, but not much. I think that kind of content gives you a different kind of attention. The kind of content you're creating gives you trust, relevancy, relevance in a way. Trust. When I first started, one of my first kinds of things I would post about is just immigration. And the only reason I would do it is because I found myself telling all my friends the same thing over and over again. So I'm like, let me just write it down and then you can go read that. And so I I don't see it as a for me at least, it was never meant to be a a business. But to the statement, I mean, Nico definitely knows about this trend, but there's so many of these like 16, 17, 18 year old kids who out of nowhere, they come up with an app, but I think they're being brilliant. I was doing a call with Sam Alman, and he told me the same thing. I was like, what should young people do? He said, most of them look like they want to be influencers, but I think they have the best idea ever. Being influencers was the best idea ever by creating content. because you're capturing attention and if the attention can age I don't mean tenure in the sense of it becomes old but as you grow older if your viewers grow with you in age as well uh you keep the attention for a long time like look at Taylor Swift it's insane right she she could soon be the richest person in the world I wouldn't be surprised and but then I what I was going to say on the app one was it's not even them trying to be influencers. It's them actually figuring out how to do their own marketing strategy at a almost nothing cost, right? what they will do is they'll pay off people to they'll pay off other people to make Discord uh sorry on Discord to make Tik Tok videos and then have like some commissionbased um agreement and then these apps are making millions and millions of dollars of money of revenue and they're sitting at home in their in their parents' garage being like okay well I made all this money and I spent nothing. So I think it's not them being influencers, it's them figuring out how to tap in to the ecosystem to get distribution for the thing that they've built. Because what they identify, at least the examples I'm talking about, what they identified is all of these apps look the same. The only thing that matters is distribution. So let me go to the app store, figure out all the apps that are basically commodity, make my own, and then figure out distribution. That's my money. Storytelling matters, right? Storytelling matters. Like we're all suckers for amazing stories. So whoever knows how to tell a story in a very compelling way and get a lot of attention for it because they speak the language of where wherever stories get shared that that moment in time. This is super powerful. I'll take the other side. I think there's in the last 3 years there's been almost too much attention on attention. While I agree content helps you grab attention and attention spans are declining. I think there's too much empty calories like I mean same audience I think it more from the lens of let's say Nikon tomorrow is starting a chocolate brand or a t-shirt brand or any kind most of an economy is consumption right 60 70% of money spent in the US is on QSR restaurants say you start a fast food restaurant in America how do you find your audience if not for content so my my push there is like it's there's two legs to a stool there's too much attention on attention just like can you get people in the door but what is your way let's say nikun tomorrow starts selling some version of McDonald's the best way is to have the best product it's like even then how are you discovered like how traditionally everything has been discovered which is word of mouth like I think there is still power in that like you know I'll give you a good example like you know Swati's restaurant in Ahmedabad it's in Bombay Swati snacks yeah same food I go there every year and it's always full and they've spent zero dollars in marketing forever. Even in today's day and age where there's a million restaurants, that restaurant is full every day by 5:30 p.m. or 9:00 p.m. and because the product is still phenomenal. But what are the odds of that? For every Swati that succeeded, I don't think I think that's why I said there's two legs to a stool. I think there's far too much attention on attention, especially in today's economy. Everybody wants a Twitter viral launch video, but the product sucks and I don't think that lasts. Like you look at the churn number, right? I mean, the product has to be good regardless. No, but that is changed. Nowadays, there's so much attention and attention that people are discounting building a good product where they can know kind of said in a in a white labelled world where you just have to build an okay product and this distribution matters. I think that will peter out in the long run. Won't the quality of with increased productivity by virtue of AI, won't the quality of a product get democratized to a large extent? I don't know. I think it's the 10% problem. The last mile problem will forever be there. This is why Jirro still builds the same sushi 80 years later and like, you know, kind of continues to I think I I do believe this is why I'm thinking the opposite. I think there's too much attention and attention. I do think you need eyeballs, right? like there's nobody comes to the restaurant and what's the point of building a restaurant but I think the product needs to be phenomenal in this AI age otherwise it's just slop like that's what happens like you know when one Tik Tok trend goes viral 20 people copy it and 20 people copy the same app there is no differentiation and then you build a little bit of value but the only compounding value is retention can you build a retentive product where people come back and that only comes with quality think of some products that come to mind that have done really well at mass scale today. What do you buy often that you think is a spectacular product from a differentiation lens digital physical like Apple? You buy iPhones. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. Is that because of the product or is that because of it's compounding advantages, right? Like it's there's no attention. What does Apple spend money on? No, they spend money on ads comparatively compared to their gross margin profile, their marketing spend is very low. Yeah, I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I mean, this is obviously I think this is kind of obviously true that you can't you need retention and you need But that's changing though. Last year more than ever I have felt this changing and that you think people don't focus on Yeah. Like they look at Mr. Beast festivals. The only reason it sells is because attention. But the product, I've had it. It's horrible. Horrible for the kids. It's horrible for like Why did you try it? Why? Because I was just curious. Yeah. But again, it's two legs to the same stool. I'm just saying there's far too much attention on one end. Yeah. I think I'm focusing more on discoverability. Yeah. Cuz you get to that point and then comes the question of retention. Yeah. I mean you need attention because now in a sea of the same how do you differentiate yourself? Content will always be the differentiator one way or the other. But I do I think it's going to be a revolving door if you don't focus enough on the product. The pendulum is swung on the other side is what I'm trying to argue where I think it can go back to like we need both. You can't have one or the other. I'm looking at the last 5 year bucket as the bucket of performance marketing where you gave Google money to show your product in different places and you play paid for the number of clicks and I'm looking at what is the next transition from that. Yeah, I mean discoverability especially like consumer it's all Tik Tok because it's the only free channel left but if you build something that grabs attention you get a lot of attention everything else has become paytoplay know yeah should we rate this content importance of content in building a business or anything that's like you know consumerf facing or presumerf facing discoverability it's like a it's a pen DD. Yeah. Um without without that caveat and I would say like eight or nine fairly important um not the only thing seven important but not the only thing that's needed.
Do you guys see a world where David is winning against Goliath? People don't want to buy from corporations but they want to buy from individual brands. Yeah. I mean we're in the business of backing Davids. Yeah, I think this is happening more and more with offline experiences where you want to like in the universe of like tourism, right? You want to have the bespoke uh local artisal guide or like the hotel uh that has its own story or go to the restaurant that's mom and pop, you know? Do you feel like this happened because the last 10 20 years we bought we bought products behind a corporation cuz trust was so deficit in society that we didn't know what went into it. Today we care less about trust and we are buying artisal handmade we buying into individuality again and is that a trend that's here to stay? I I do like how you framed it and it depends on the society that uh you live in and you're a economic participant. I would also add that um very often you don't want to be uh buying the same brands that your parents were buying. It might be the case for detergent, but to go to the same, you know, hotel chain that they went, it's not as cool for you. So like every generation has its own cool uh brands experiences that they resonate with and a lot of the large corporations at least you know in the in the west have had like they've lost a lot of their brand equity with the youth. I mean generally the question of David versus Goliath you you always not in every situation but Davids are a great bet to to make because Goliaths are usually bigger businesses. They have established practices, they lose their eye on the ball, they're focused on managing things at scale, sometimes reducing cost. So not maybe not just the hotel example, but even for many other cases, most businesses do not have any systemic effects of scale um that can't be disrupted in other ways. So yeah, in many cases, I would definitely bet against on the David versus the Goliath. Of course, there are other cases where that is not a good bet, but yeah, older businesses will get disrupted generally for most industries. My good thoughts. Yeah, it's a cycle of life will continue. You know, big big gets too big, too horizontal, not enough depth, small has that. And then from a consumption perspective, I think people will continue to stay Wayne, which means they want the new thing. They want to differentiate themselves and that will continue to want them to do whatever version of artisal that might be. Perfect. Want to rate this? I just have like four more and then we I'll tell you how much you rated which one and which is probably a good sector to focus on for the next decade. David versus Goliath. Nikon, the 10 is pro David and zero is pro Goliath. Correct. Nico, I'm like an an eight. Um, I would say a seven because there are some places where scale definitely matters, but in many cases they don't. One good example is in tech. Mhm. Where you see something like six, seven companies that created the bulk of the market cap, if that's a way to measure it, um, over everyone else the last, you know, 30 years.
I had this thesis two years ago that by virtue of cost per mile or kilometer most vehicles will become EV or hydrogen focused in a very short period of time. So I I spent 2 years investing in everything from electric scooters, electric buses, trucks, even a flying electric taxi company. When I look back at it now, a lot of these bets did play off, but the adoption to EV seems to be slowing down and subsidies are being taken away, not just in the US, but also in countries like India and other places. What do you think is the future there for 2035 adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen versus IC?
I think it's for somebody to buy a vehicle in let let's pick a neutral country right that's not the US it's not China like but one in Latin America or like a smaller you know country in Europe the consideration you know would be what is the cost how often you know would I need to maintain it what's the cost of ownership um and you actually do see that a number of the Chinese car manufactur ures that make EVs that here in the US you don't see on the street are actually winning. They're far ahead because the price and the total cost of ownership is pretty awesome. So when I visited you know different you know such countries over the last few um over the last year like in Colombia or like in Portugal or like in uh Greece I was seeing car make brands that I had never seen before. Then I was googling them and they're like massive. So do I think this is a trend that uh will continue? Uh yes, you saying it's a trend that will continue. Might not be everywhere but in a lot of you know countries because people want to have a car. It's a means for them to unlock more productivity and get to work and make more money. Um I do think this is a trend that's not going to stop. I'll give you the number in India. If you buy a EV scooter, it costs about $2,000. If you buy a IC scooter, it costs you about $1,000. But if you ride the scooter for 40 kilometers a day, on a EV scooter, you save $500 a year. Cost of running and much easier to maintain cuz the number of parts are exponentially lesser. But still adoption is not that high. Why? Why do you think adoption numbers have slowed as much as they have in the US? Can it just be because the Chinese are making spectacular EVs which are years ahead of them and they don't want to even compete in that market anymore? What is it? Why did the subsidies go away even? I don't think you can buy any of the Chinese EV cars here, right? No, you can't. That's the biggest issue. If if we were to truly operate like a free market, I think they would be doing pretty well. The same in India. like you can't buy Chinese vehicles, but are Americans not buying American EVs because they can't buy Chinese EVs? It's just a cost thing on to what Nico said. It's cost and convenience. There's not enough chargers and it costs too much. If the cheapest car was an EV, everyone would buy an EV. Do you think that'll change in the next 10 years? What percentage of cars on the road in 10 years will be EVs in America? I think it'll change and that's primarily because of Tesla. That's the only car company that moves fast. And so if that's the only car company that is allowed to operate, then yeah, then they will figure out how to get the cost down one way or the other. Do you say 100% of cars will be EV in 10 years? I don't know 100%, but I would say like it would a majority of cars will be EV in 10 years. In my mind, a good proxy would be like what percent of cars that are getting sold today or EV, right? And this could kind of tell you how the future might look like. like around 20 20% sub 20%. I I don't know but um so yeah if that number is accelerating and the it's it was accelerating but the pace of acceleration has slowed down. Yeah. So part of it is the incentives part of it is the economic cycle. So whenever there is a slowdown in the economy the used car uh market is doing much better than the new car market or like you know when we had the disruption with co in the supply chain new cars became more expensive and harder you know to uh buy because uh you would have to wait for longer. So there these factors too, but do I think that like EVs um anywhere in the world are going to be the majority of cars over the next 10 to 15 years? Yes, I do think so. Yeah, I think we dramatically overestimate how fast people will adopt new things and cars are a big asset in the country. It's like saying America will build 10 million homes. We won't. It's just harder. And US especially from a market perspective, used car market is massive. Always has been boom or bust and you won't it's very hard to just change it like new cars will be built but uh they're far more expensive. And so I actually think without the incentives in 10 years one could argue they won't be more expensive. They'd probably be cheaper. They' likely be cheaper. This is where like if the free market depends on where you're sourcing it from. If you does it have to be USmade then no. Can you still source from a free market? If free market existed, I would be very pro and I I have two EV cars at home, just to be clear. Like I would be very pro like, oh, we'd see 10% of the market be EV, but otherwise it'll be a slow trickle till these cars go out of another vector to to consider perhaps is in places where we have a lot of autonomous vehicles adoption. If indeed the total cost of operation or like an autonomous vehicle is you got to be EV first or um then you know that's another market that's going to be growing very quickly right want to rate it Nico yeah I think I'm like a seven you know or an eight yeah seven seven to the statement that by 2035 majority of cars will be EV Yeah. In America, no. Worldwide. Oh, seven. Probably less. I mean, it's like it depends on like China, India, Nigeria, Brazil, right? Like Indonesia. Yeah. I think those countries will adapt faster because of efficiency. The amount of energy lost between generation and endpoint usage is lower in EVs. And people will adopt there because the cost to travel per mile will be lower. Yeah. And what what if I were to say to you not in India but in China huge air pollution problem. The Chinese government says hey guys from now on you want to buy like a gasoline car no problem. It's going to be like 50% more expensive. This the same is happening already like in India many cities are saying that if you're bringing a truck into the city if it's not EV it's not allowed. Oh there you go. So that's again another vector that pushes demand even further. Right. But then why only seven? Um because I'm not as fluent in the in in the exact numbers and it depends on like these four or five big populist countries. Right. Right. Right. I think if it's new cars like what percentage of new car or new cars in 2035? Yeah. That'd be like a seven. For new cars. I was thinking like total let's say for new cars. Oh, and then I'm like, yeah, I'm like nine, you know. Yes, same. Yeah, like because I was thinking, you know, the average uh lifetime of a car in a bunch of countries is like, you know, 12 years. I was trying to do that math. The VC math in your nine as well. I think eight primarily because I think especially in the US like with the conservative government like oil and gas is not going anywhere. It'll take a long time for us to like move like from a politics perspective, EV force is not going to be very popular for the next six years. But from a cost perspective, the cost of everything else compared to fossil is falling so quickly. But the problem is batteries again, it's like American choice. Like you know, it's like I can go fill up my petrol pump wherever I want. I can go to a gas station. I can kind of like have this. I don't want to wait for 45 minutes. convenience is battery technology is not evolving fast enough like we I'll give you an example we invested in this electric truck company which has interchangeable batteries like battery swap the largest company which does battery swap in the world is called Sanne in China so these trucks drive with two batteries at a time they go to something which is as small as one container box and the batteries are swapped in the same amount amount of time that it would take for you to stop at a gas station and fill fuel. Yeah. Each battery gives you a range of 700 km. So, two batteries together let you drive 1,400 km. India end to end let's say is I don't know 4,000 5,000 km. What that means is the number of petrol stations that you require in itself come down exponentially. You probably only need 50 container size stations across the country to get these trucks to go across the length and breadth of the country. I think the model is changing significantly even for a country as broad and wide as India. Yeah, I think replacement as you mentioned like eight is the I won't be a 10 because it'll still be choice and people will ch it takes a while to flow in like even today I disagree with like charging stations are good enough like every in America infrastructure is already there people are still voting to not buy EV cars even though they're cost appropriate because it just takes time for people to change right okay point number eight of 10
Beauty as a category beauty products 10. Yeah. Same. Yeah. Yeah. And beauty and content are are are in line with each other. I mean, look who are the wealthiest, you know, like people outside of tech. Anyone who's in beauty and luxury. Yeah. Luxury. That's luxury. Beauty and luxury. Yeah. Luxury also. No. No. I was saying who are the besides wealthiest you know like uh individuals or families outside of technology anyone who's in beauty or in luxury goods should I just add them and make them one beauty luxury and then like if we're want to take a glimpse into the future we would go into uh South Korea where indeed they have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world but they're massive exporters of culture and over there if you're a And there is a more than 50% chance that you use beauty products every single day. Yeah. So like again, you know, this guy's population, you know, will shrink. But if everyone was like 80 years old looks like a 50-year-old, that's a good trade for most people. And the surgeries in South Korea, we've been what to build in beauty. We're trying to come up with something. Any ideas what could work as a product category in beauty? Yeah. Now like beauty gives you confidence, right? No, but if I want to build a brand in beauty, like we have a team which does a lot of consumer brands that we run not just invest in. If we build for beauty, what what do you think could work in today's taste cycle? Can you help me eliminate my wrinkles? Right. I would pay for that. Beauty. you make products, you know, uh, 90% cheaper, I would pay for that, right? Anti-aging. Anything anti-aging that's more easily to get to and cheaper. Yeah, I think make for men to make it more accessible and cooler with content, you could do that. Yeah, you could do that, too. I have the opposite take. I think I would build like a very high-end luxurious brand for like the top 10% of Indian males. for Indian males. You're talking about India, right? No, not necessarily. Across I'd take the opposite route, which is like I take you if take hard problems like anti-aging. I'm guessing you fall into the top 10%. So, would you buy? Yeah. What would you buy? What what buy like makeup? Uh I think this is where like alo the other aspect it's like invisible like what what is invisible today? Is there like an invisible foundation that makes me look 5 years younger? Sure, you would. Yeah, you would do. I know nothing about beauty, but I I mean I think there's all of these things are credible. Um I think there is a gap in male beauty, but I think women are obviously the primary consumers of beauty products. So there's a lot you can do there. Um I just I know nothing about it. I mean look into Olympic. You know, most people take it. It is beauty product because they don't want to ever be on a diet. Yeah. Yeah. Like I know a lot of people like us Yeah. who are in their 30s or 40s. They never had any, you know, issues with their weight, but they don't want to be on a diet. They want to eat everything they take us on because it's a beauty product. Yeah. I'm guessing longevity and wellness. You guys will rank highly as well. Yeah. 10th. Yeah. It's a question affordability. I would be in nine. You know, longevity and wellness. Yeah. For you. Yeah. I think like at what price point matters, but as a category, yeah, nine. I'm more of an eight. It's like anti-recession. I mean, have you guys ever like taken a flight that's connecting through Istanbul in Turkey? Of course. What do you see there? A great airport. Great airport. Yeah. Isn't that freaking insane? Yeah. Where was that industry like 10 years ago? Yeah. Wasn't there. Yeah. Yeah. And now thanks to Tik Tok and content, it has become like a global destination. Live events, concerts, theaters, plays. I would even put something like a high-end restaurant is a live event. I think the nature of live events is shifting to people want to advertise that they were at a live event on their Instagram predominantly. I think that's the main purpose for most people um that go to go to live events or others do it you know on your behalf and you lose your job as the whole world learned last week every everyone wants to go to a good Coldplay concert you know um so but generally I'm I'm more neutral on live events because I do think attention capture is going to be more massive on digital and so there is going to be a smaller set of people in my mind that want to go to live events. Yeah. Uh net volume, not maybe not number, but the net volume of time spent at a live event. I don't really have a strong view that it goes up, I actually don't know. Nico, what do you think? I think most live events historically have been like [ __ ] businesses to run. But in a world where the offline experiences become the scars, in a world where we get tired of being online in front of our screens for 14 hours, there's going to be a premium. You mentioned Taylor Swift. There's a reason why she's a billionaire. She's figured out how to make so much money from her super funds. And to the extent more and more Taylor
Swift sweeps exist, which I think you know will be the case in the individualistic driven, you know, society that, um, we live in today. Life, live offline experiences, um, will, uh, do really well. And it could be a restaurant, you know, like what if, you know, the Japanese, you know, sushi stuff you mentioned was more capitalist-driven, wouldn't he want to do it in front of like a, a massive arena? You or tour the world and do it maybe.
Scarcity matters though. I think scarcity is never a good point. Yeah. Yeah. Scarcity will never go away. Desirability comes from scarcity. So want to rate live events. Nico, I'm like, you know, like an eight. Okay. Um, five. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, I think philosophically I want more live events, but I'm with TD and short-term it's like six, like where we'll move towards live events. Six again, you know, like they're mostly [ __ ] businesses, but like look into like what happened with the World Cup for like the clubs for soccer in the US. Like this was a brand new revenue stream out of nowhere. Like the winner pocketed over 100 million, you know, uh, dollars. Chelsea, uh, with the Europeans, you know, you know, snobs and we don't care about it, but if the numbers, you know, go up, which is likely in the future, would you pay attention to it? Probably you would. But I'd bet still that digital coverage of soccer will have a higher percentage from an eyeballs and viewership perspective, percentage of time perspective than live events. But supply and demand comes in there, right? Like the supply of digital is for everyone. On the novelty of live is, yeah. But I think that's what we're betting on is like my way of giving a score is like, what do you think percentage of time goes up in live events versus digital? I would bet screen time goes up higher than live event time. And then my think response to you would I think there's more concentration in live events, but not necessarily net volume increase. I think more people gravitate to the cosplay concerts, the Taylor Swift concerts, the fair thing, and the Chelsea game. But, you know, I think most events that are not places you want to be seen are not like that interesting. That's why when you look into most ticketing businesses that serve the long tail, they're really [ __ ]. They can't make money. Nobody shows up. People don't pay. Yeah.
Okay. Last one. Climate tech. What, what, what is climate tech? What's the definition? Carbon capture. The thesis behind the statement is someday soon. I mean, it could be carbon credit trading. If there were one large event where say 10,000 people die, say there's a flood in Miami, the water levels keep rising, suddenly everybody will go back to climate and start taking it very seriously. Like climate tech could even be software. Like I was at this, I'm part of this group called the Gates Pledge where I think your colleagues, a couple of them are there, one of them is there, and there was this professor this year who was showing a model that he had built where the base case is world's temperature will rise by 1.6 degrees, 6 degrees by 2100. And what can you tweak in this software that changes it? Is it a carbon tax? Is it a lesser amount of coal? Is it more allocation to nuclear? U there are funds like Breakthrough Energy which are working on this. So all of this somehow comes into climate.
Yeah. I mean, we, we need to do something about it. The challenge is, you know, that for many humans, it's hard to relate. Even if I live in Miami and there's a huge flood and I lose my home, then I might move somewhere else and I might forget about it. Or my local politician, you know, who is responsible for coming up with subsidies or incentives. That stuff like, you know, doesn't get them necessarily reelected in the next, you know, cycle. Actually, fair point. There was a fire here in California and everyone's forgotten about it. Yes, we, we forget. It's really unfortunate. I mean, same, same applies to health stuff like, you know, we had COVID and, yeah, nobody remembers COVID. I think, you know, Nico, modern remembers their stock price is down from 400 to 30 bucks. God bless this guy. I think climate tech is an overloaded term because it means so many things and a lot of it is a bad word, um, especially in venture for a bunch of historical reasons. But energy, I think unambiguously positive. And energy is a big part of climate. So, and you mean like renewable energy, all energy, how do we get cheaper, better, more sustainable energy? Um, yes. So everything from nuclear to solar to geothermal. I mean, different, can we have fission? Right. Yeah. Different propensities of working. And I think that is climate tech. I mean, if we can figure out how to get energy in a hyperdense way, then we won't need to solve all these other problems. So, yeah, geothermal fits into climate. So energy, yes. Rest of climate tech ambiguous on definition or like you can come up with like creative solutions, right? Like whenever in the world we have massive volcanic eruptions, there's a cooling of the, uh, temperature, you know, on the planet. So like, could we do any of that, you know, in ways that is safe for all the industries and humans that are running on the planet? Could be powerful. Or like finding creative ideas, you know, to have, uh, a very positive effect in an economic manner. Like, could we paint all of the Sahara desert in a way that's reflecting, you know, back some of the heat? Who knows? You, the challenge, it's a very complex, you know, space. It's like trying to cure cancer. Like cancer is not one, you know, disease, you know, and every little one of these solutions contribute. But then you pay attention to subsidies and capital and labor intensive, and it's more project finance. And I think there's a subtler point in all of this stuff because, you know, Nichol, I know you're going to ask this as an investment lens. And so being bullish on a lot of these things doesn't necessarily make them easy investments because you look at biotech, you look at energy, it's just the failure rate is so high that you might be like, of course these things matter, but investing in these things may probably lose me money in most cases. But if you remove the venture lens and you buy the incumbent with a moat, you at least want to be in a sector you think has statements perhaps. Yeah, I think that's fair to say. Yeah, because I'm not looking at it from the venture lens. I'm looking at it from an investment lens overall. So I'm going to say climate tech, energy largely. Would you bet on that number DD? Um, I would say it's, you know, all of AI is built on more compute and energy. So that is one reason. But nine, nine. Yeah. I mean, if I had to bet agnostic of where else I could put my dollars, if I had to bet on climate, Yeah. I would definitely put, put like seven. Eco. Yeah. It would be an eight because like we need more energy. This is one of the ways you, uh, boost productivity. That's one of the ways you boost economic, um, growth. AI is like a hog for energy. Mhm. But I actually think the world gets worse in the near term because energy will become the fundamental limiter, which means we will frack more. We'll pull more from the ocean. Uh, because nuclear fission and fusion will still take time to build. You can't build solar panels fast enough. That's why I was like a seven. I'm like, do I believe climate tech will solve? Yes, but it'll take a longer time period. But the world will get much worse in the next 10 years from a climate change perspective. So.
So data centers, at least back home in India, have become like a real estate play almost. Everyone and their cousin and uncle and auntie are building data centers. Makes sense. Who built apartments until yesterday? Do you think bubble now? Not yet. No bubble. If you buy into it now, the multiples are not high. You, you get these companies at 16 to 20 EBITDA depending on which geography you pick. Data center businesses. You think it's a good place to get allocation? But do you have any real estate arbitrage? Do you have any energy arbitrage? Everyone has a different narrative. One is near a power station. One is also a real estate player. So they have real estate arbitrage. Uh, different people have different things. India has, uh, we mandated that financial data of Indians has to stay in India. Y and as much as a big chunk of data created is in India. So if they mandate that all Indian data has to be in India, it becomes, I think this is a very good narrative that will be driving, you know, local pockets of demand in many different countries. And then can you bet on the operator that over time will be the consolidator? Yeah. Like if you can find that awesome entrepreneur, I think it could be a good trait. I still think it's underrated. I think the amount of compute in each country. Do you think compute will get more efficient with time? We'll need lesser space in a data center. But we'll continue to use more and more of it. You think I mean Google just announced they like doubled their token usage in three, three months. Google, like I think we're just at the very early innings of how much token usage, even with efficiency, we're going to use far more compute. Even with chips getting better, we'll still use more. I think I don't think that goes away for the next 10 years. Now the question, and then each country will use compute and energy as their like, it's like a nuclear weapon. Like you will have this, like you will want to keep ownership of this. Right now, it's a big geopolitical risk where like Saudis, especially, and other countries are holding this, whether it's chips or real. And that becomes a strategic geopolitical asset for them. India will not want to be left behind. Rated, uh, data centers and investment, nine depends on the person today. Nico, 2035. Again, you know, this is an exceptions business. So, we'll bet a seven because you got to pick the right operator that has all the other, you know, right conditions. But as a broader trend, yes, it'll be a seven. I'm actually lower because I think yes, there's a need for compute, but like to Nico's point, there's so much that goes into running a data center. Do you have the skills? How often do you have to renew the hardware? Like what are the hardware you're putting into that? How much does that cost? How much are you selling it for? Like there's a lot of things that go into the business of data centers. So yes, will data centers exist? And generally, yes, there will be more and more, but some data centers are extremely bad businesses. Um, multiples have not been also good. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah. Multiples haven't been good. And there's ways to really [ __ ] that up, right? You can demo buy a bunch of Nvidia and then sell inference and you might be making like pennies on the dollar. So, you know, it really depends. So overall I would say, uh, six.
I'm going to ask you advice on a few companies I've been reviewing when I'm here. I had a thesis that when we all have more time at hand, when abundance comes about and productivity goes up, I wagered a guess that humans will go back to what they always intrinsically did. One big activity is speculation. So I was speaking to companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. What do you think of them as investments? Forget the regulation side of it. Forget one is US. Gambling is a good investment. I mean, gambling will always hap, will always be good as long as it's legal. So people, it's a vice. It's a vice investment. People like to speculate and make money off of it. That's You think even today at the crazy multiples that they're at? Yeah, I, I think so. I mean, the more people come in, more of those markets become liquid. They become more investable. They become market makers. More institutional players might come on. There's a whole bunch of things that can happen around prediction markets. So I think it's a great, it's a great thing. I would, I would like it. I like it. I think you said forget regulation. Forget regulation because she's regulated in the US. Polymarket is more on the blockchain, peer-to-peer betting, more international customers. I'm guessing Robinhood will soon figure out whether they're a partner or they're going to replicate what they could maybe easily replicate. There's so many moving parts when it comes to regulation. I don't know how to put it in a box. Yes. Like assuming that regulation is like sold, you know, for the category. Is this going to be a great category? Yes, I think it's a great category because it's entertainment. You already have evidence from several of these that the consumer eyeballs, you know, are really there. Um, you have like a well-driven business model for some of these that really works for other industries. Um, the margins are, can be pretty awesome depending on how much the regulators would want you, you know, to part with them. And then the new cycle is great news for all of these businesses. So overall, um, again, you know, regulation risk aside, um, pretty bullish about the category. Yeah.
So I mean, it's in the class of entertainment as a whole, especially with abundance, there's going to be infinite money and time. Do you bet, Nikuch? I feel like you're closeted something in your outside. No, no, no. I play, I, I play poker quite frequently though. I feel like there's another version of Nick that he doesn't let on. I, no, I play poker night now. No. Top 2% of sports bettors worldwide. I play FIFA a lot. What's your vice, Nikon? What's my vice? Um, probably just like, yeah, probably poker is like I spend a lot of time playing. Poker is not a vice. Come on. Get creative. I don't have. You're so composed on the outside. Inside has to have something else going on. I've always been like my, my friends growing up always called me like a granddad. I've always been that way. I like sleep like this, like hitting my Did you enjoy being called a granddad? Yeah, I have no problem. Not no problem. Did you like it? Yeah, I was like perfectly fine with it. I don't know, something about like maybe I have more wisdom than the average person that maybe the vanity side of it could be. But answer such a granddad answer to I don't see the vanity of wisdom. I see the vanity in many things, but the older person kind of vanity, I don't see why it appeals to a young, young boy. I don't know. I've never been. Yeah. I maybe I've just been very comfortable like, you know, like I want to go to sleep at 9:00 PM. Sleep at 9:00 PM. I know that's your projection. Yeah. No, that is loving husband, two kids, electric cars. You should ask my wife. Yeah. How did you meet your wife? We met in high school. This is just like textbook fairy tale. No, but the craziest, the craziest thing about our life story is we never dated. We never lived together. Um, I just knew her for 10 years. And then one day I asked her, "Will you marry me?" And she said, "No." And then I convinced her. Two months later we got engaged. More textbook. [Applause] Right? Yeah. I wish I had the time to poke it. Not today though. Not today. I, I wonder if you asked ChatGPT describe me in three words based on everything that he knows. Try it now. I would love to know what it says. My phone's there. We can try it now. I can try it right now. What model should we use? Uh, I don't know. Is 03. 03 is probably the 03. Of course. My go, based on everything. That might take a while, you know. Yeah. About me. Oh my god. You know, describe me. We're going to burn a few trees in the rainforest, you know. Just to know. Just to know. Too much energy. I'm actually super curious now. I All right. He probably watches what he says to ChatGPT as well. No, no, no. I actually have never used the Is that somebody else keeping your data for you, right? No. I actually ChatGPT knows me probably better than anybody else in life. Wow. Is that a good? Including the wife? No, it has to be because I spend so much time sharing your thoughts. Everything I write, everything I talk about, everything like every thought goes through it. Wow. I'm fully bionic that way. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, same. Uh, it says, Oh, I hate the last one, but it says analytical, proactive, visionary. I don't think the last, but the other two probably true. That's great. New LinkedIn headline now. Tell me the truth. Tell me the real truth. That's funny. This is, this is the real podcast. I love this. Uh, assessing the real truth. Let's see. Normally, I'm like a little bit more roping, but today we're so many people and we're talking about something I want to get out of the way. Yeah, fair enough. Superpowers. Pattern spotter, relentless editor. Agency amplifier. Can I write the poem? Please be funny. I'm going to write speak like Yung. A therapist I really like. What are my shadow traits I don't want to take cognizance of? So Chris Pack did this thing called / Graham on Dia browser. Did you guys see this? No. What is it? It's basically psychoanalyzes you. Slash what? It's called slash Graham based on Graham Duncan who's like, who did this basically prompt. It's a very good prompt. It goes through your Twitter and just like psychoanalyzes you. I posted mine online so you can see it what it said about me. And so everything I thought through, everything. Yeah. Yeah. What did it say? It's reflecting right now. You could also ask if he's a gambler. You can ask him. My biggest vice is poker. What are my biggest vices? ChatGPT. Tell me. Okay, this, this getting better. Oh my. You're an expert prompter. I love it. I love it. What does it say? The tyrant of efficiency. It's true. Wow. Counts seconds like coins and curses every idle breath. That is true. The spectre of control fears chaos more than failure. Maybe. Yeah. The armor of intellect. A polished exterior forged from logic and data deflects feelings, both yours and others. The mirror of validation reflects only on achievement. Each milestone fades the moment it is reached, demanding the next brighter proof. The shadow of exhaustion. Invisible at first. It whimpers that stamina is limitless. Ignore it long enough and it steps forward as burnout. Better deep, but not not that different. I mean, better like a little bit less filtered. Yeah. I wrote a post called "I'm Not Good Enough" that talks about every failure I've had in life. So, this is where humans are better than AI, more vulnerable. Yeah. And use it, you know, for advantage. Okay. Let's rate speculations like Polymarket. Yeah. Polymarket, culture, culture, all of that stuff. I mean, without regulation, I'm a 10. Okay. I'm a nine, you know, without regulation. Okay. Nine. Especially if you're getting it's like part of entertainment for me. So, nice. Okay. Okay. So when we spoke about how the world will change, let me first summarize what got the highest marks. So we said beauty and luxury is like a great sector to build in, 30 out of 30. Followed by speculation and gambling. Great sector to build in. All vice businesses. Vanity here. It's just vanity. Yeah. Followed strangely by education, which is outcome-based. Yeah. Then came world older, sicker, senior living, content, EV adoption. Yeah, those had the same number. That's interesting. We'll put this up on a chart and we'll say what each of you said and why they said it. I feel like this is very useful data both for capital allocators like us, but also if I'm a young kid looking to start something, it allows me to extrapolate a rate of growth. So at least I have some tailwind in the industry that I'm building.