Transcription
Starting with basics, the Strait of Hormuz is it open or is it closed? Do the Iranians control it? Is the US Navy gone? Do we know?
Well, as best we can tell, uh, the Strait is partially open and there's no question that Iranian ships, as you would expect, are racing through the Strait and out into global markets. Uh, there's no question that Iran still controls the Strait and uh, even if it's open completely, they still will control it and they will control it for the foreseeable future. There's no doubt about that. But I don't think it's completely open at this point as best I can tell. And I think the Iranians are doing everything they can to put pressure on the United States, to put pressure on Israel to get out of Lebanon and to stop the bombing. Uh, and I think that once that part of the agreement is in place, assuming that ever is, then they can get on to the business of opening the Strait completely.
Right. And of course the Strait was open before the war. The Iranians were not regulating it. They were not charging user fees or tolls. Uh, am I right?
Yeah. I think what's going on here, Judge, if you think about it, is that on February 27th, uh, the Iranians had no good sense of what powerful or strong hand they were playing. Nor did the Americans or the Israelis, which is why we attacked Iran on February 28th. But once the war began and it began to evolve over the course of March and April, it became manifestly clear, uh, that by controlling the Strait and by also having all those deadly missiles that they could use against the Gulf States, American bases in the region and against Israel, they had a really strong hand to play. And that of course is why they ended up winning the war, so to speak. And that's why they're in such a powerful bargaining position today. But nobody understood that on February 27th, which I think gets at your point.
And and and emphasis on the word nobody. The Iranians didn't understand it. The CIA, Mossad, the White House National Security Council somehow didn't even consider that the Iranians might control the Strait of Hormuz and use use it as a man means to get the Americans to back and the Israelis to back down. They didn't even think of this.
Well, there's two points to be made here. One is you want to remember that we had the 12-day war last June. This is June 2025, where the Israelis and the Americans uh attacked Iran. And uh although the Israelis were very anxious to settle that war after 12 days, as were we, it looked like the Iranians uh were not the winners in that war. Uh and that was the situation on February 27th. I think people at that point were thinking about what had happened uh in the 12-day war. And they expected something similar to happen uh in the present conflict. And of course it looked like that on the first day or two, but as the war evolved, it became clear that that wasn't the case. And once the Iranians unleashed the dogs, I mean really uh engaged in the war full scale, uh it became very clear that they had some powerful cards to play.
Yeah. A Colonel McGregor, who'll be on with us later in the week, reported I didn't know the Israelis had a navy, but anyway, he reports that the recently retired admiral as the head of the Israeli navy says it has been decimated by the Iranian missiles, but um Um, uh won't allow that to be revealed.
I did not know that, but I'm not surprised that uh Colonel McGregor said that. Uh I I think one of the reasons that the Israelis have gone to such enormous lengths to not let us know what kind of damage has been done inside of Israel is because a great deal of damage has been done.
[snorts]
And if you think about it, Judge, the Iranians did a huge amount of damage to Israeli I should say to American bases in the region. And you say to yourself, if Iranians could do that to American targets, they certainly could have done the same thing to Israeli targets. So, again, I I think it's unsurprising to hear what Doug has to say.
What does Israel gain by refusing to reveal the uh nature and extent of the damages caused by by the Iranians? I mean, does this help Prime Minister Netanyahu politically? Do local Israelis, the people that will vote to retain or reject him in October, know or not know this? Does Israeli press not know that the Israeli navy has been obliterated according to the admiral that used to be their commander?
Well, very importantly, the Iranians surely know as well. Uh and uh and that's what really matters. I think what the Israelis are trying to do is convey to the world that uh Israel uh is in the driver's seat. Israel is waging this war very successfully. Iran has little capability to hurt them, and they have great capability, they meaning the Israelis, have great capability to punish uh Iran. And of course, that's not true. And all of this tells you why we're in this situation now, where the United States has basically capitulated to almost all of the Iranian demands. The fact is that when you look at what's happened in this war militarily, and then most importantly, you look at the economic dimension, the fact that we're facing a potential economic catastrophe, you see that the Iranians are playing a very powerful hand, which again, we didn't anticipate on February 27th, and I don't think they anticipated either.
Right. Right. As you As you point out, they probably didn't realize the power that they had in their hands just by controlling the strait, but they certainly do now.
And your point is we didn't recognize it either.
Well, we should have. I mean, what what kind of military planners did uh Secretary Hagseth and General Keane and and the White House and National Security Council employ that they didn't think of this?
Well, the counter to that is that they expected to win a quick and decisive victory. So, the whole question of the strait being shut down would never come into play. As you and I have talked about on numerous occasions, this was a cockamamie theory of victory. The idea that air power alone was going to win a quick and decisive victory was just not in the cards.
Right.
But they they they didn't think that. President Trump thought that uh we would knock the uh Iranians out of the war very quickly, and we wouldn't have to worry about the strait.
Right. Right. Is in your view is the memorandum uh of understanding for real? Is the Trump-Vance versus Netanyahu public adversity spat for real? Or is all of this just some sort of a pause until after the midterms?
Oh, I think this is for real. I mean, Trump has made it clear that he believes we are facing, and I'm quoting him, an economic catastrophe if we don't shut this war down. And of course, he's correct, as Larry Johnson and others have told you on the show. Right, this war has to be set shut down for economic reasons, and Vance understands that as well. He is the point man and he's going to great lengths to shut it down in the negotiations that are now taking place in Switzerland. We have a profound interest in hoping that that Trump and uh and Vance are successful. As you know, we have criticized Trump and Vance endlessly on the show as have others on the show for initiating and waging this foolish war. Uh but at this point in time, we all have a deep-seated interest. One could say we have a profound interest in hoping that Trump uh and uh and Vance are able to put an end to the war. And I think if you watch what Vance is doing, he is I think focusing laser-like on just trying to get some sort of agreement uh that satisfies the Iranians so that we can put an end to this before we go off the cliff.
Chris, can you post the Trae Young's to full screen? I mean, during the first day of negotiations, the president uh of of the United States looking for the Trae Young's to full screen, Chris. The The president of the United States said this, "You close it," meaning Hormuz, "and you won't have a country." And then he says to the negotiators, "You won't even make it back to your blanking country." And then they leave the room. What kind of a way is this to negotiate?
It It's remarkably foolish. I mean, uh we we all know that. I mean, it's It's just irresponsible to be making those sorts of comments and to be using that kind of language. Enough is enough. But the fact is that we've reached the point with President Trump where we expect this. And I think it's like water rolling off a duck's back at this point in time. I don't think the Iranians take this rhetoric that seriously. I think they roll their eyes and say, "Here we go again."
Yeah. Do the Iranians do the same? Do they trust him? Do the Iranians trust Trump? I mean, he bombed them uh at the time of the negotiating in June. He bombed them at the time of negotiations in February. Now, he's threatening to assassinate them in Switzerland.
No, they don't trust the United States. No country in its right mind would trust the United States. Uh in my opinion, no country in its right mind would trust a great power. You don't want to rely on trust. Uh what you want to do is make sure that you have the capability to protect yourself uh in case the other side welches on the deal. And furthermore, you want to have sufficient military and economic power to make sure you get the best possible deal. But the Iranians, they don't trust the United States at all. And you can rest assured that once this uh uh once this war comes to an end, once we get an agreement, and hopefully we will get an agreement, the Iranians will build lots of missiles. They will give Hezbollah and the Houthis lots of missiles. Uh they will go to great lengths to make sure that the next time uh they have to close the strait, they can do it with deadly effectiveness. They're going to prepare for the worst. And they'd fools not to. You're dealing with the United States of America here. And you're dealing with President Trump. Uh I'm sure you wouldn't trust President Trump if you were running Iran. I certainly wouldn't.
Yeah. Here is uh Vice President Pence. This is either yesterday or Sunday talking about the president's trash talk.
What what we told the Iranians yesterday is when you guys engage in what us millennials might call trash talk, you can't expect the President of the United States not to respond and not to correct the record. So, when they say things that aren't true, the President is going to respond to it. I'm going to respond to it. Americans are going to respond to it. When they make threats that aren't rooted in reality, they have to accept that the President of the United States is actually going to set the record straight. That's all that happened. So, yes, there was a little bit of threatening, there was a little bit of whining, but at the end of the day, the talks continued and we made great progress.
What threats did the Iranians make, John?
Zero.
Right. [laughter]
I mean, I mean, what Pence is trying to do is just put the best face on President Trump's misbehavior. Uh what else can you say?