Transcription
Hi everyone, and welcome back to Real Vision. I'm Bejan Mleki, and today we have a very special show for you. We're joined by none other than Ralph Pal and Jamie Coots. This is a new show where we are going to review our members' portfolios live on air. Ralph asked the question, you guys answered, sent in your portfolios, we picked them, and now we're going to dive into them. You, hey, this is all your guys' fault. You sent the portfolios. So, now our experts are going to go through them.
"Guys, how are we doing today?"
"We're doing, we're doing good. Jamie's in like, cold, wintry Australia, and I'm in a sweltering part of Texas, but we're, we're all having fun."
"Yeah, absolutely. A little bit of a heatwave going on here in New York as well. But you know, one thing before we get into it, we have something pretty awesome going on at Real Vision right now where if you are a member, whether you're wanting to renew or you're someone who was, you know, kind of sitting on the sidelines, always looking at Real Vision and and you needed a reason to get in. Well, we have that going on right now. We have memberships up to 70% off. So, you can get up to 70% off on the Connect tier, uh, 56% off on the Alpha tier, and 50% off on Pro. That's going through right now up until midnight on July 4th. But if you lock your rate in before July 4th, you get to keep that entire rate for as long as you stay a member. So, absolutely. And also the other thing because you see a lot of questions on the platform is yes, you can renew your existing subscription, it just adds time on, sorts it out. So, any subscription questions go to milrealvision.com. We've got you all covered. Whatever your questions are, whatever you need, whether you're just joining Real Vision, upgrading, or renewing a subscription, lock in the best prices you've ever had and lock them in forever."
"Yeah. And for those of you that are tuning in, you'll notice this is a free show and this is our first ever portfolio review. But uh, we just opened it up for everyone so you guys can get a taste of what's going on here. But uh, going forward, these will be for Connect and Above members. So another great reason to hop in on that deal and uh, and just keep it for as long as you're a member. Um, guys, shall we, shall we get started or, you know, do we have anything we want to get into first?"
"No, let's do it."
"Let's do it. All right. Uh, who is our first?"
"This is when we find out the members are better than us. Jamie and I were worried about that already, but you know..."
"We don't have an ego."
"I mean, listen, I've seen some great portfolios. So, why don't we dive into the first one coming from Demetrios Aram and this one is an interesting one. So, Demetrios has quite an interesting basket here. So he has 30% AI equities, 30% in Bitcoin, 20% in alts, and 20% in USDC dried powder. Uh, which, which do you want to break down first here? So within his portfolio on the equity side, just for everyone watching, he has Tesla, Nvidia, Google, Palunteer, Avo, and uh, Ky Koi D. And on the alt section, he has Solana, Hyperliquid, Sui, Near, and Aerodyome. And uh, 20, 30% Bitcoin and 20% USDC dry powder. What are we thinking here, guys?"
"So, I'll do top level and then I'll do some of the AI stuff. Jamie can look at the alts and stuff, but at top level, this to me is a very solid kind of exponential age technology portfolio that units of intelligence per, you know, Yeah, output of intelligence per unit of energy. This is right in line with that. It's got all of the component parts at top level that you'd want. You've got hyperscalers, you've got the chips, you've got the intelligence layer, uh, you've got the robotics layer. I mean, I just added Robo. Um, I was tossing up between Robo and D and Koi to add to the GMI portfolio recently. Um, so I think it's pretty solid. Um, you will get some rotations um over time, but you know, Tesla's been underperforming, you know, Alphabet did really well um, and we will still sort of see a rotation through this. So I think at 30%, you're not overly weighted, you're not underweighted, and the BTC thing is, you know, a pretty solid, you know, core construction. So if you think of that, the core construction..."
"The cash part looks good too. And whatever optionality you want to choose from. I don't think you got anything really dragging, nothing really dangerous to me. Jamie, what do you think about the alts, the sizing, what he's got, how he's thinking about it?"
"Well, I mean, if it's okay, if he's been more AI exposed over the last like 12 months, 18 months, he's he's done very, very well. If he's shifting into alts now, he's got a higher, he's got a higher crypto component or a higher crypto weighting than the AI exposure at the moment. I think going forward that is the right play. Um, it might be like, I still got this view that it's going to be a little bit bumpy for a couple more months, but in terms of like positioning for the next big wave, it's, I think back into crypto because of the agenda, commerce, and tokenization themes. So the waitings look pretty good for like 12 months to 18 months out. And the only thing I would, I would just point out with the portfolio is that there is no positioning in ETH."
"Yeah. I was thinking that as well."
"There's one blind spot would be ETH in this."
"Yeah, like, I mean, everyone likes to dunk on ETH. It's still the center of gravity for the crypto economy and I think it's starting to shape up really well if you look at those long-term charts. Maybe we can get to some of those charts towards the end of the show. But that's the only thing I'd point out is that, you know, ETH deserves a a place there."
"Well, Jamie, if you've got charts, show them."
"Yeah. Well, I mean, okay, let's bring it up. Um, and..."
"I'm sure Nico will be like, 'Really? You didn't say you were going to share charts.'"
"But we do this all the time."
"We just get an eye roll. And..."
"There he is. Mario, really?"
"Let's go to Eth, shall we?"
"Mario, you're so used to it by now."
"All right. Well, I mean..."
"Jamie, you're the only person I've ever seen with a white background TradingView. It's really messy. So, let me just turn off some of these things because it, it does. All right. So, I mean, look, it's not a pretty chart, but if we, well, let's go out to the weekly. We should always start on the longer time frames. And if we look at ETH right now, and I will put on the Demark on the weeklies because that's where it really matters. And I'm not sure if you're following like the counts here, but we're still some way away from really getting an exhaustion low in ETH, but that's what I'm watching for. And you're looking at long-term support that's multi-year in nature. If we had time, we could go over the fundamentals. I don't want to spend too much time on it, but like, is ETH, ETH has actually picked up in terms of transactions and on the fundamental side is looking a lot better than where it was sort of six months ago. And so these areas around sort of like 1500 have been on my radar for quite a long time. So look, what I'm just saying is that I think for the whole space to rally, ETH is going to have to be a part of that. And I think, you know..."
"You know, it's weird, Jamie. We had a nine count on ETH that flipped this week."
"Did it?"
"Yeah. So we got nine on, um, on..."
"No, we're sevens on Bitcoin. Solana is a 10, but we flipped a bunch of the counts because it's been so strong, which is..."
"Can be a good sign. Can also be like, really."
"Do you spend much time on the monthlies?"
"I do, and they've, uh, um, Swedes got its monthly. Uh, let's have a look. Hold on one sec."
"Yeah."
"I do. I love to see the confluence. So, Swedes got the monthly nine last month."
"Bitcoin is the monthly nine this month. ETH is a monthly nine and a 13 monthly nine. A 13 monthly Solana, I mean, that's a full sweep of monthlies. The weeklies either have confirmed or were confirming and then flipped. We got a price flip. Uh, yeah, I, I think it's super interesting levels as you said, because they're on the key big lines as well."
"Yeah. So I mean, like monthlies really are in, in crypto, a very long-dated, a very long-dated view, but..."
"It doesn't happen often when you get..."
"Exactly. So they are worth noting. Now, monthly can mean that it could still bump around for a little while, like weeks and months thereafter, but I think we're starting to see the the signs that are of exhaustion in this downtrend. So, all I'm saying is with ETH is that it may not outperform some of the other L1s, but if you've got a portfolio and you're trying to play it relatively safe within the space and you want exposures to to crypto, then ETH is probably worth consideration."
"Yeah."
"But the rest of them look good. I mean, I'm, I'm really bullish on NIA. Um, you know, they've cut their inflation and they've flipped the buyback switch on all their intents. And so NIA is a very interesting play because they're they're they're not just benefiting from uh activity on their block space. They're going to benefit from increase in activity across all the chains because of their interoperability protocol. And then you layer on what they're doing on the AI side as well. It's a very interesting protocol."
"Yeah, I think this is a really great portfolio. I like it. Demetrius, well done. I think this is pretty solid. Apart from the ETH thing, that's the only suggestion I would have. If not, it feels pretty balanced. Um, sure, it's very risk-seeking, but you know, that um, so, yeah."
"Now, one question I had about Demetrios's portfolio is, so he's sitting on a 20% USDC cash position. And if I'm not mistaken, Jamie, you recently moved to a cash, you moved some of the crypto portfolio to a cash position as well. So, like, how are you, because I think how you're thinking about it can definitely help Demetrios because he's sitting on a large cash position as well. So, like, how are you thinking about how you're going to maneuver that?"
"Yeah. So, Bejan, I started actually going to cash in September of last year, and I've been, my my cash allocation has been wavering between sort of 15 and 25%, and I'm around 21, 22%. It's the highest cash weighting that I've had for 3 years at RV, and I think it's warranted just because, you know, in the short term, I'm still looking at, you know, some of the price action being negative, and also just watching the DXY. The DXY continues to rally through sort of 101, then, you know, it's very clear that crypto doesn't perform well in that environment. And if it starts to bottom out and outperform as the DXY goes higher, that is a sign with a couple of other signs that could be a confluence that we're getting that that bottoming out. And so what I'm looking to do with that 20% is adding it to the positions that I'm really bullish on. Um, you know, for all members here, I've just, we're dropping a report for, um, uh, Pro today, which is about a DeFi protocol which is, you know, completely untouched, unexplored, and a brand new vertical for DeFi, which is in the options space, which I think is going to be a big theme this year, and I'm going to be adding to those positions. Um, I think Sui, Sol, ETH, Bitcoin, as they sort of get to these Demark indicators where they're 13s, nines, exhaustions on the long-term time frame, monthlies and the weeklies, and then just with a little bit of confirmation on the on the daily of a of a trend change using the the suite of tools that we've got here at Real Vision. Everyone on the Alpha has access to the Trend Chameleon indicator, which I was showing before, which just clearly demands, like, delineates uptrend, downtrend in a very systematic way and takes away all the confusion about, you know, drawing a line and interpreting a trend. Does that sort of systematically for everyone? Then we start to see those trend changes on the daily chart after exhaustions on the weekly and the monthly. And then you've start to get that pitch to that. Okay, it's now time to rotate some of that cash into the big L1s. But I, I'm also looking at some of the applications as well."
"Awesome. Shall we, shall we move on to the next portfolio or do you have anything to add?"
"All right, let's do it. So, next one comes from uh, David Nez. So David has two buckets. He has a cryp, he's separated his portfolio into a crypto and an equity bucket. So in his crypto, he has 65% Bitcoin, 25% Solana, 6% ETH, 4% Sui. On his equity side, he's 40% S&P, 20% NASDAQ, 10% Micro Strategy, 10% Bitmine, 5% TAN, 5% SMH, 5% Microsoft, 5% Tesla. Now, David has been compounding for 6 years. He's never sold Bitcoin. He's never sold his S&P or his NASDAQ. He actually just adds to it on the dip. He's also got Micro Strategy and Bitmine in his equity bucket, as we mentioned. So, what do you guys, what's your guys' take on on David's port?"
"I'm gonna take the first stab at this and I'm going to annoy Mario now and share uh the Real Vision thing because what he's doing is the GMI compounding machine, which is on Real Vision. Uh, that is available. Now, let me find the Real Vision homepage. So if we go down to data centers and dashboards, the compounding machine is exactly this. It's the idea that you buy, let's say, when Bitcoin's 1.6, 6 standard deviations oversold, where it is now, and assume you don't sell, which is this no sales idea, is how much it compounds over time. Um, uh, yeah, the no sales is is how how much it does over time. And this idea is how you really compound compound wealth. It also takes all of the stress out of markets because you look forward to when it gets two standard deviations. You have to ask yourself, is tomorrow going to be more digital than today? If yes, carry on. If not, then you've got something else to worry about. But that's basically it. And it just keeps you in the trade. And then so if we assume those are his core positions, uh, let me just close this window. If we assume that those are his core positions, um, I mean, that makes perfect sense. So really, in his po, core positions, it doesn't show the split between equity and crypto. Um, he's then got layered on some Solana overweight, um, ETH and Sui, and then the smaller weight Micro Strategies, which is more Bitcoin. So he's very, very overweight Bitcoin."
"So, and that's fine."
"That's fine if that's what you want to do. Um, the equity stuff is kind of noise. It's so small outside of the ones you've got. Um, it depends how do like the Sol, like there's there's a little bit. The last portfolio didn't have any energy exposure. And coming from someone who doesn't have enough energy exposure, I I like the fact that he's got 5% in TAN because that's a very smart play, you know."
"Yeah, I I like that. I like that play a lot. What I'm questioning is, is 5% worth the hassle?"
"And it depends how diversified do you run your portfolios? I tend to be more concentrated because I find what I've learned over time is you have too many stocks, you don't watch them."
"Because it's only 5% and then you lose money in all the small [ __ ] that you don't look at."
"Yeah. Well, I think with this, the way I'm sort of looking at it and thinking about it is that it's basically because TAN is such a low volatile, strong trend, and it's a long theme, that what you're doing is you're just lowering the volatility of the overall portfolio. So depending on your risk profile, to me, this is someone who has a very keen eye on what's happening with respect to all technologies and is basically looking at the best way to play it with minimal volatility. I mean, you can't..."
"I'm not sure about hilarious. I'm not sure about Micro Strategies as minimum volatility."
"Yeah. Well, as a percentage overall, but yeah. Yeah. I mean, uh..."
"Also, if you bucketed them as like crypto core, equity core, and then AI, the AI trade, you put TAN, SMH, Microsoft, Tesla all together at 20% weight. That's that would make sense if you think of it as a bucket, I guess."
"Yeah."
"Does that make sense to you, Jamie, then that way?"
"Yeah. Yeah. No, absolutely. No, I quite like it. I mean, it's probably a little bit overweight Bitcoin. Um, just where I think the the world is going, but like, I I have run Bitcoin at those percentages for a long time. So, I can I sort of sympathize with that view. But I think with the world going the way it is, and I'm a huge believer in Bitcoin. It's a lot, my largest position. I think the the reallocation back into sort of the oversold smart contract platforms and some of the applications is going to play out a little bit better this cycle or the next, the next four years than it did in the last four years because clearly that was a Bitcoin dominated, uh, Bitcoin dominated cycle. But I think with the tokconomics improving in crypto, the supply discipline that I'm starting to see come through from a lot of protocols, and then all of the demand that's going to eventually show up because of tokenization and agents, I think L1s and a few of the applications are going to do a little bit better than what they did in that last cycle."
"Here's a question that I was thinking through: is the S&P and NASDAQ? Why do you hold the S&P? I understand you would say it's a bold dampener, gives you equity exposure, less volatility, but it just endlessly underperforms because you've got a bunch of old economy stuff in it."
"Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't personally. Um, I don't think the benchmarks are really keeping up with the evolving nature of markets."
"No, but but he's what he's trying to do is do nothing and make money, which is the right answer."
"But would Yeah. The question is, is whether you'd have the S&P or you would you just have 60% NASDAQ or is that too crazy? I don't know. I'm not one to, I run very concentrated risk, so I don't really care. But..."
"My preference would be run a higher NASDAQ weighting and accept that volatility as the, you know, the condition of entry."
"Yeah, I I would with that as well. I just, you know, I just do not see a world with which intelligence and, you know, all of the things surrounding it doesn't outperform everything. I mean, every government is focused on this. Every corporate, I mean, the everything, it's the biggest trade of all time. We're in the middle of it. It just like, why have the S&P?"
"Either. I mean, I would I would be more tempted to..."
"Put 30% more into the NASDAQ, have that 50% and put an extra 10% in your emergency fund in T-bills or stablecoins, uh, to take advantage of whatever interesting happens."
"So, I wouldn't disagree with that. I think at least with the NASDAQ, even though it's a passive, it's a passive allocation, it's going to capture what matters a lot better than the S&P. Yeah."
"Yeah. And you could, you could increase your cash to take advantage of anything that pukes. Let's say the semis really, you know, I think the semis got a decent chance at some point going down 50%. But just as part of a rotation..."
"Well, if you're sitting on 10% in cash and you could buy the SMH down, you know, um, or TSMC or something down 50. Yeah, great opportunity. Just do the same log trend channel. Wait for it to go to two standard deviations oversold, like Rocket Labs is down to two standard deviations oversold now. You know, that kind of thing, kind of interesting."
"What about this rail? I mean, like you can look at the S&P and just carve out the sectors that you think are going to be the greatest beneficiaries of what's happening on the technology side with AI. The one sector that comes to mind again, I don't have any exposure, but this s area that I need to look into and I've started is healthcare."
"Yeah, I had that. I had that in GMI um..."
"Okay."
"This month as well."
"Through what? Through because I'm looking at Eli Lilly and a couple of these large um..."
"So what I did is I did one um without giving everything away from GMI, I did one sort of pharma acquirer ETF. So these are the big pharma who are acquiring..."
"Who likely to acquire the small companies with the AI."
"Yeah. Yeah. And then um, then a basket of biotech."
"So who are the acquirers? I people are going to be acquired, the innovation, and then like Eli Lilly, you know, yes, I think that that's exactly the whole idea that I had in my head and I filtered it via a complicated form for um, format of intelligence plus um liquidity, how they fit, where they're underpriced versus the underlying trend of what's happening because I built a whole bunch of dashboards on this and it came out the cheap sectors were crypto, first was the cheapest. Um, and this was an unbiased kind of assessment of this whole thing. It was a formula. The other one was um, farmer, and the other one was Chinese internet, uh, Chinese AI."
"Oh, that's interesting. I, yeah, I wondered if we were going to go there, but, um, that's another that's another sector that looks really interesting on the robotic side because I think they're they're underpriced or undervalued relative to western robotics. But yeah, so like on that whole healthcare thing, I think that like for me, the big sectors, the big opportunities is where there's still where they still are a chokehold on the on the economy. Like here in Australia, healthcare is a massive part of our of our budget and it's ripe for disruption because there's just no way that going forward the that the industry can continue the way it's been performing without being massively disrupted through AI and bringing down costs and lowering friction and having better outcomes for humans. So that that sector looks amazing going forward."
"Yeah. Yeah. So look, I think with the rotation will go in towards the more of the applications layer of who benefits, who's going to revolutionize their business. Now, if you could be a good stock picker, you could probably go through the whole SAS um group and figure out who's going to adopt it, in which case they're wildly underdiscounted, or who's going to get destroyed. Um, but that's that's hard work. But that that trade is there for somebody who can do the work on it because there's a bunch of companies that are going to keep innovating. You know, nobody's going to stop Shopify, Spotify, you know, a bunch of these companies from innovating, and there's a whole bunch of them like, whatever, some accounting platform that won't. Now, before we move on from David's portfolio, Ra, you touched on something about his Micro Strategy that I wanted to ask you because he is holding Bitcoin and ETH in his crypto side of his portfolio, but then in the equity side he has Micro Strategy and Bitmine. Is there, do you, like if you're holding ETH and and Bitcoin in your crypto portfolio, do you think there's a reason to just, you know, kind of add Micro, hold Micro Strategy and Bitmine in in your equity side, or is that, are you like double dipping essentially?"
"I mean, double dipping's fine if you think it's going to give you leverage. I still think these things will trade at a discount to NAV forever and that's so I think that game everyone's anchored on the game of, oh, I could trade at a premium and I'm going to make a fortune. The problem is, is he slots, he sells as much equity as he can the moment it trades above fair value. So in which case, he's telling you you've got no chance of getting the leverage out of this. Um, so I don't like it. I've never liked the trade. Um, and I still don't like it. Tom Lee is more interesting because he is adding in longer-term optionality and different plays. So you're getting some different equity exposure. I like what Tom's doing actually, to be honest, as a longer-term vehicle. It's different. I think Micro Strategies now has got over-engineered. Um, so it's just complicated. Um, doesn't mean it's going to blow up. It's just complicated. I don't like complicated things. Tom Lee's basically ETH with the staking yield and then buying some long-term tail stuff in interesting bets like Mr. Beast's business. I kind of like that. It's kind of interesting."
"Jamie, what are your thoughts on the two?"
"Yeah, I mean, Micro Strategy is probably a trade for me. Um, because it's always, there's always a point in the cycle where Micro Strategy starts to divert, or sorry, diverge. It happened, it it happens in the bull cycle. It happens in the bare cycle. Even with an ETF, I'm looking for what's..."
"Even with an ETF now, because it was that play, right? I mean, I just, yeah, it's getting like, it is so oversold at this point, but I what I expect to happen, and this doesn't make it a long-term play in my book, because I mean, like I bought Micro Strategy last year and sold it at a profit, and I talked about it at the time, and because it started to diverge into performance of Bitcoin during the bull market. That for me was the sign. I think the opposite will happen at the bear, at the bottom, and Micro Strategy, after being grossly oversold, and now that they've announced they basically just hit the market with the reality that they are going to put their shareholders first, which was, well, they're going to put the press first, basically. Um, and so that for bit, the Bitcoin community is a hard pill to swallow, but it was always going to happen. He over-engineered it, as you said. Um, and so now the market has to digest that reality. And I think that this is part of the bottoming process that we're going to go through. But Micro Strategy, like I wouldn't own it in the portfolio. Um, I think it's a trade. It'll set up as a trade, but it'll be a short opportunity. I tend to agree with you on Bitmine. I think now that ETH is sort of, it's being shepherded, or it's, it's got Bitmine and a couple of the other DATs who I think are going to lead the initiatives rather than the EF or the EF is going to do other things or take a step back. I think that's very positive for the network, and when you've got the staking yield there as well, they can put it to more productive uses. So, you know, I don't know the difference between the NAVs to say the relative play between Micro Strategy and being and um, Bitmine, but I think Bitmine going forward is probably a better hold. But I personally, like you, Ra, am not fond of owning the DATs."
"Yeah. Now, again, for a trade, some of these are massive discount and can the discount narrow? That's a trade many people do. Uh, arbitrageurs will, you know, sell the underlying, buy these things at a huge discount, see if it'll narrow. I don't think they'll trade at a premium ever again unless like Tom Lee gets a huge equity stakes that have done really well and he ends up with the next Anthropic, sure, he can do that. That's the difference with his, but it's still early days yet. He hasn't put that big a positions in those. They're a trade, but yeah, I'm not, not super keen on them."
"All right. Well, David, thank you for sending in your portfolio. All..."
"All right, here is our last portfolio. And I'm really excited about this one because this is a very interesting portfolio. This one comes from Daniel uh, Schwary, Real Vision OG, by the way. Uh, Daniel has 49% in crypto and proxies between Coin Hood, Bitmine, Sui, a Sol proxy, Hype, and Near. He's got 20% in the AI and data center play. I don't know how uh, Eli Lilly made it in this one, but he's got Eli Lilly. He's got a semiconductor play and he's got uh, Unity Electronics. He's got uh, 12% in the Taiwan hedge. So he's got an India ETF. He's got a Mexico ETF and he's got Texas Instruments. 10% cash with Swiss Franks and STRC. And then he has 8% planned into uh, a quantum computing ETF and Scandinavian REITs."
"Scandinavian REITs. That's the first time I've heard that one."
"So, I mean, look, it's a, it's a more traditional style, broad macro-based portfolio. Um, and it's quite well constructed in that way. It's very interesting. Yes, it's very risk-seeking. Um, the broad range of bets, but nothing too big apart from the Sol proxy. And the issue goes there with that is, do does the discount narrow or not? Uh, we don't know. Um, the AI and data centers, I think you're in the in the really, you've missed the whole bulk of that trade. And Eli Lilly, yes, is part of that whole big AI trade, but I think you've missed the biggest trade in the world. Um, the Taiwan crisis heads hedge, I mean, fine. I mean, I I don't hedge, actually, pretty difficult these days because of everything so correlated, and if you put India against the NASDAQ or S&P, that they're all so correlated. So it's, it's difficult to find anything that isn't, uh, I just question whether, and I don't know the answer to this, but I'll give it to your Lord or your ChatGPT, are you trying to be too, you're trying to trade the old school George Soros? Well, I'll bet against this and this and this when the world is so, it's, it's kind of screaming at you where the opportunities lie. Um, I don't know that that's my thought on it. Maybe you're overcomplicated, and and the waitings seem weird."
"Jamie, sorry. Sorry. Um, Daniel."
"Well, I, I, I'll just focus on like the crypto component of this. What I do like is you've got Coinbase and Robin Hood there. I think, you know, for anyone who's investing in crypto these days, to take a sort of a a broader look at the space because I think the equities, you know, the companies that are leaning in the hardest to blockchain technology and adoption, uh, will perform just as well as the underlying tokens will. Um, Coinbase and Robin Hood are a great place to start. Um, and I mean, you've got the the Sol proxy there in one of the DATs and you've got Bitmine as well. Um, we've talked about the DATs, so my preference would be just to own the underlying token itself, but you've got a good spread. I mean, you've got Hype and you've got Near. So, that looks, um, that looks reasonable. The fact that you don't have Bitcoin is a deliberate choice obviously as an as an anchor for the entire space. I mean, everything is extremely correlated to to Bitcoin still is. Um, maybe that breaks away at some point, but I, I would have some Bitcoin. Um, but, you know, it looks, it looks fine from my mind, but, you know, it's maybe swap out some of the DATs and you, I'm still trying to think through the the others, the AI and data centers. I mean, I don't know on, I don't know Q Electronics, I can't really comment, and maybe you've done the, I'm sure you have because you're very thoughtful about what you put here, you know, whether those are your best bets. Daniel's also got it. He's always got really insightful comments too. I can see..."
"So, I, so I can't really comment on the stocks and I'm just trying to think through if I took the naming off Taiwan crisis hedge because that triggers me because I don't think anything happens there. Reshoring is an ongoing trend. Dollar, forget all of that. Do I like India as a trade? Yes. Do I like Mexico as a trade? Yes. Do I like Texas Instruments? Don't know it well enough. So, if I took off the the titling, I think I'd I'd actually think about it less and just say, 'Yeah, couple emerging market bets. I think the dollar weakens from here. You'll do well. Both those economies, I think, over time are going to do really well.' Um, not yet executed, but plan. Quantum makes total sense, you know, as it's been pulling back because it got, it's been way overbought, so it needs to correct massively. Scandinavian REITs is a global warming play. I've actually had a few friends of mine move, I was about to say, who the [ __ ] wants to move up to Sweden, but um, I've had a few friends of mine move to Sweden, so I'm not sure it's about the weather, but..."
"Why not? I don't really have a view on that."
"The the quantum ETF, like just looking at it on a weekly chart, you've got a bunch of 13s. You were talking about how it needed to correct."
"It was the single most overbought on my GMI metrics that I had of any single sector."
"With the semis being the second most overbought at four and a half standard deviations above log trend of NASDAQ."
"That's insane."
"And this is even further. This is like 5.7 or something. So, if it is the if it is the next major frontier breakthrough that we've got in tech, and I don't know, I was out to lunch yesterday and someone who's pretty tapped into that side of things thinks 2029 is the time frame we're looking at for a major breakthrough. Um, which is scary from a from a Bitcoin perspective because they're still faffing around deciding whether it's actually important or not. Um, but maybe that maybe that sector corrects, but it only corrects to like one standard deviation above trend of relative to the NASDAQ."
"Yeah. And you know, I'm I'm quite nervous of the semi. I'm just looking at On Semiconductor, which I don't really know. I mean, it's been a great performer. I'm just worried there's a lot of Demark count stacking up in all of these. I'm just worried if I, the mental model, and again, I just wrote about it in GMI, but rotation is that all the chips got ordered, great. They then got shipped, so we saw the semis sales go up, then we saw the Taiwan exports go up. Next, it comes to the US and have to build the data centers. We saw the massive ordering of data centers and the funding of these things. The problem is, they're only 30% of where they should be versus what should have been built. So if you think about that slowness now, there is a probability that they'll slow down their chip orderings and use the cash to fund this, so you're not using all your free cash flow for the time being if you don't need to, and then you pick up your ordering again in a bit because there's no point ordering three years in advance because Nvidia will have had two more even better chips by then. So that that to me, something that's four and a half standard deviations above trend versus NASDAQ, not even in its own right, it's like, okay, there's a very good chance of a decent correction in that trade and it rotates. So I'm, I'm a bit nervous of semis, but Daniel doesn't have a big, uh, uh, a big position um, in that. I'm looking at electronics, which I've never heard of. This shows that he knows more than I do. I mean, it's been a rocket ship. Um, yeah, I don't know anything about the stocks. I can only look at the chart. Um, don't really know."
"What do we make of his cash position? He's, it seems like it's half uh Swiss Franks and half STRC, which does have the 7% yield, but obviously uh infamously in the news."
"Yeah, I would not label that as cash. I think the yield is now about 13%. Given that he's trading, that's the issue is, you know, Sailor didn't do a good job doing that. Now, again, I think Daniel knows what he's doing, just looking at his positions and what he's doing, and he, you know, it's not that big a position, and maybe it's an attractive play. Great. I mean, I would never do that trade. Um, but again, it's only 5%. It's not the end of the world. Um, the Swiss Frank, it's a great idea. Um, you know, that's a, it's a good way to have cash. Um, the other one is USDC and get yield. I don't know how different that looks to the Swiss Frank, but it's probably maybe marginally better if you add the uh, the extra yield on top of the US dollar. Um..."
"You could also stake, you could also stake your crypto holdings as well, or do it through a liquid staking and then generate the two to 3% there on that part of the portfolio. That's uncounted."
"Yeah, that's right. Look, really interesting portfolio. Um, it reminds me a lot when I was at GLG running the hedge fund. I used to have a book that was broken down by these kind of thematics. I had like Russia trade, I had a strong dollar trade, I had a, you know, whatever. And I would break them down like this and try and create diversity, which never happens. So when everything went down, they all went down. Um, occasionally bonds would value out, but now bonds don't value out anymore. So it's difficult to have diversity. Um, but really interesting. Um, names I don't see a lot, and I don't see many people trading emerging markets, really, but um, always an interesting trade."
"Yeah. Sorry, go ahead, Jamie."
"I was just going to say, Ra, like this is just a side tangential thing. How cool is it now, right? So back in the GG days, you would have had like these trades set up with like some sort of thematic attribution, and then you could break down your performance of your portfolio based on thematic attributions. Right? So now with AI, anyone like Daniel can basically run this through his AI, capture the performance of all the different baskets that he's running, his themes, his thematics, and get the attribution to see at the end of the year or the end of the five years, which ones actually worked or look in real time and see which ones are not working and swap out of it. Such a clean."
"Yeah. And when you've got something diversified like this into different sectors, you can then say, okay, what is driving the volatility of the portfolio? Is it giving excess returns for that, or is it underperformed? You know, there's a lot you can do when you've got a snapshot like that, a very structured, thought-through portfolio, and you put it into AI um, and you say, well, what do I need to balance this portfolio out?"
"And here's how I see the world, you know, as you and I have got to now. You don't even have to type anymore. You just use WhisperFlow, talk into the model and say, listen, look at my portfolio for me. I think there's something missing here. I don't know what it is. You know, is my volatility structured right that it's giving me excess returns or not? And it'll come back. It's like, it's mind-blowing."
"What are we going to do with these? Is they are they just for drinking?"
"Yeah, I know. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Why ask us? We're idiots compared to the AI."
"Oh, that's great. Uh, one last question on Daniel's portfolio because uh, he is the second person of today's portfolios to have Hyperliquid in there. While I don't know exactly what the weight is, Jamie, I know you did a deep dive uh, on Hype. Are you, how are you feeling about it these these days? I know at one point it was seemed like they were definitely going to, you know, cross and become, you know, legal in the US. Now I don't know how certain that that issue is. How are you feeling about them currently?"
"Yeah, it's the third largest position in my portfolio. I trimmed recently. Um, I think the big overhang at the moment is just, you know, that regulatory um treatment, which I think just based on sort of like where sentiment is tracking, it's, I think it's going to become increasingly um, you know, discussed and dealt with towards the end of this year. But in terms of like, is Hyperliquid executing on its stated goals? Yes. And is it an exceptionally strong protocol within the crypto ecosystem? Yes. And are they going to benefit from tokenization? Absolutely. Um, I think it's just a, it's definitely has a place. It's going to be, I think, increasingly volatile um, as we sort of go forward. But I think that it is a position that I will maintain. Like it was at 12% of the portfolio and I, I just trimmed it back to seven. Um, so I took profit, was up 100% since I added it to the portfolio. Um, but no, I don't have a, I don't have an issue with it going forward."
"Fantastic. All right. Well, guys, this has been our first uh, ever portfolio."
"It's kind of fun. I enjoy doing this. It's fun because you get to, we get to learn, right? We get to see other people's positions."
"It's like being giving a tour of somebody's house. You're like, 'Oh, really? I love that, you know.'"
"Well, I especially like seeing the actual breakdown from the contributors on the platform, especially guys like Daniel who are really active in the feed and then actually seeing what's behind >> his thinking and seeing his actual portfolio. So, it's very illuminating."
"The Scandinavian REITs, that's the winner."
"Yeah."
"That shows that Daniel does a lot of thinking about what he does. So, when at first I'm like, it's a bit of a weird portfolio. They looked at thought, 'No, he's really thought about this.' And the Scandinavian REITs, I don't know if it's going to make you any money, Daniel, at 3%, but it looks good. Makes you sound really smart."
"Yeah, absolutely."
"That's all that matters at the end of the day, right? Uh, so everyone, this is, this episode of course has been free, but if you want to tune in to our future portfolio reviews or if you want your portfolio reviewed, uh, join us on Real Vision. And right now is the perfect time because like we said, until July 4th, the rate you lock in today is the rate you keep for as long as you're a member. You can get up to 70% off uh, from Connect all the way up to Pro, which is 50% off. So, come on in, join us, submit your portfolio, have the experts review it, break it down. We're learning from you guys. Uh, this has been, been really fun. I want to throw it to you guys uh, for any last words or any takeaways from from today's show."
"No, I love it. And this is the whole ethos of what we're trying to do is sharing ideas. Nobody has a source of truth. Nobody knows the right answers. But to have a community where we can talk about our trades, things that are working, things that aren't working, seek um advice from others, offer advice to others is really, really valuable and it's fun. You know, just Jamie and I just going through this. It's like, ah, that's interesting. You go through interesting things."
"Yeah, it's definitely illuminating. And it, you know, there's always when I look at these, there's always a couple of thoughts that trigger in my mind that is going to spark like extra research and actually how I think about my own portfolio. So, I think it's very illuminating."
"Yeah, absolutely. And for those of you, if your portfolio wasn't selected today, well, you can always go to the AI Mentor and just ask them about your portfolio or talk to them about anything, really. Uh, and..."
"It's interesting to me. I'm just realized that I'm the only one here who doesn't run any cash. I run a zero cash position and I have done for years now. Just as soon as I get cash, if long got a bit in the bank account to cover some a couple of major expenses and stuff, I don't run cash at all. It's weird."
"Do you change the name of your portfolio from the exponential basket to Ball to the Wall?"
"I think everybody knows that irresponsibly long. That's been the thesis since 2020 and it's, it plays out fine."
"Well, everyone, thanks again for tuning in. Head on over to realvision.com/pricing uh to check out our summer sale. Remember, you have until July 4th. We'll uh, we'll see you on Real Vision. We'll see you for the next portfolio review, everyone."
"Take care, everyone. Thanks."
"Thanks, Bejan. Thanks."